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Woe
to americans who Are All Prisoners Now All Americans are now imprisoned in a world of lies and deception
created by the Bush Regime and the two complicit parties of Congress, by
federal judges too corrupt, timid or ignorant to recognize a rogue regime
running roughshod over the Constitution, by a bought-and-paid-for media that
serves as propagandists for a regime of war criminals, and by a gutless,
ignorant public who have forsaken their self-respect.
CHEER: Ambrose
Evans-Pritchard: Bank Crisis may make '29 look 'walk in park'...
Alexander Tytler: "The average age of the
world's greatest civilizations has been two hundred years JonesReport.com |
12-4-07
"The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been two
hundred years. These nations have progressed through this sequence: from
bondage to spiritual faith; from spiritual faith to great courage; from
courage to liberty; from liberty to abundance; from abundance to
selfishness; from selfishness to complacency; from complacency to
apathy; from apathy to dependence; from dependency back again into
bondage."-- Alexander Tytler
Andrew Jackson:
"There are no necessary evils in government. Its evils exist only in its
abuses."
AP: TOP 10 NEWS STORIES
'07...
Former
CIA Interrogator: We Carried Out Torture Because The White House Told Us To
Fire
out at building next to White House
FBI
agent threatened to arrest CIA interrogators in 2002.
Countdown:
Bushed! Countdown's list
of the top three Bush scandals you may have forgotten about because of all of
the new Bush scandals. This week's scandals: Habeas Corpus-Gate, Air-Gate and
NIE-Gate.
Bush administration:
Back off says war criminal and strategist dumbya bush on CIA tape probe CNN
HUCKABEE SLAMS 'ARROGANT' BUSH WHITE HOUSE
WYOMING DEM CHIEF: CLINTON WOULD
HURT PARTY...
LA's
gangland culture spreading chaos, violence into America's heartland...
Dodd ready to
mount filibuster to block telecom immunity
Naomi Wolf - "There hasen't been a real
investigation of 9/11."
Lee Hamilton Says the CIA Obstructed the 9/11
Commission
CIA
Failed To Fully Inform Congress About Destroyed Tapes CBS News
More
Evidence of Obstruction of Justice in 9/11 Investigation
Neocons Revise
WMD Entry on Wikipedia Propaganda Portal
Pelosi
and Harman Aided and Abetted 9/11 Cover Up
The
White House and Congress Knew about the CIA Interrogation Videotapes
USATODAYGALLUP POLL: Approval
of Congress sinks to new low...
9/11
Victims' Lawyers Blast Ground Zero Toxic Air Lies In Court
Bush
Authorizes Full Access to U.S. Roads for Even More Mexico-Based NAFTA Trucks
What is the CFR?: The Bush Clinton Bush Clinton
Administration
Olbermann:
Bush is a BOLD faced LIAR about NIE/Iran
Russia's
well-founded and rational deep suspicion of (particularly criminal america) the
West
Hillary
Campaign Tactic Backfires as Top Aide Quits
REPORT: FBI
Videotape shows Sharpton cutting a deal...
Victim:
Gang-Rape Cover-Up by U.S., Halliburton/KBR
Poland
does not need U.S. missile defense base - ex-PM
Iran
Is No Threat and That’s Official “They stole our threat”
goes a headline in the Israeli daily Haaretz. The author is, of course,
referring to the recently published US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE)
composed by 16 American intelligence.....
Gov't official: No 'smoking gun' on Iran
Egypt Govt Accuses Israel of Meddling in Its
Ties With US
Paul: Israel Demanding U.S. Further Its Self-destructive
Pro-israel Mode and Invade Iran
Russia
warns of US missile shield retaliation
PA
Economy Worst Affected by Israeli Restrictions: WB
Israeli
Airstrikes in Gaza Kill 7
NASA 'on target for
return to the moon for the first time by 2020'…..riiiiight!..... UFOetry: We Never Went To The Moon -
The Award-Winning Documentary/Music/Video by John Lee
'The Mother of All Frauds'
History Channel Admits
WTC Tower Fell At Freefall Speed
FBI Now Admits Evidence
Used to Connect Oswald to Kennedy Assasination Was Bogus
Food
prices rising at highest rate for 14 years
Taj
Mahal Won't Accept bushit american Dollars as India Laments Lost Value
THE HILL: Dems Cave On
Spending...
China's Yuan at new high vs
dollar...
YEAR-ENDER: Home Sales
Plunge, Feed Recession Fears...
(1-7-08)
With sloth-like reflexes and speed the lazy, fallible frauds on wall street now
recognize, yes we’re already in a recession. Forget Bulls/Bears. Their new mascot: Morgan Stanley
issues full US recession alert Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Tuesday December 11, 2007 Morgan Stanley has issued a full recession alert for
the US economy, warning of a sharp slowdown in business investment and a
"perfect storm" for consumers as the housing slump spreads. In a
report "Recession Coming" released today, the bank's US team said the
credit crunch had started to inflict serious damage on US companies…..
Reuters House
prices seen falling 30 pct 12- 6-07 By
Julie Haviv NEW YORK (Reuters) - Housing markets from Punta Gorda, Florida, to
Stockton, California, will crash and suffer price drops of more than 30 percent
before the housing crisis is over, a report from Moody's Economy.com said on
Thursday. On a national level, the housing market recession will continue through
early 2009, said the report, co-authored by Mark Zandi, chief economist, and
Celia Chen, director of housing economics. The report paints a worsening
picture of the hard-hit housing sector, which is in the midst of its worst
downturn since World War II. While activity will stabilize in 2009, it will not
be until 2010 before a measurable improvement in sales, construction and
pricing will emerge, the report said…..
Earnings Recession Has Arrived U.S. corporate profits are in a recession, and the entire economy
can not be far behind. Slower sales and higher energy and labor costs are
forcing companies from Bear Stearns Cos. to Pitney Bowes Inc. to reduce
spending and hiring. Their efforts to keep earnings from eroding even further
raise the risk that the economy, already weakened by the steepest housing slide
since 1991, may shrink sometime next year. ‘The earnings recession has already
arrived, says David Rosenberg, North America economist for Merrill Lynch &
Co. in New York. We are going to see an economic recession in '08.…..’
BANK OF AMERICA Sees Bigger
Writedowns (12-12-07).....
MORGAN STANLEY first loss
ever; taps China for $5 Billion...
PAPER: Housing foreclosures
largest since Great Depression...
Home
Prices Fall for 10th Straight Month
Oil price spikes close to
$97...
CITIGROUP and MERRILL face
bigger writeoffs/dividend cuts, etc.....
CHEER: Ambrose
Evans-Pritchard: Bank Crisis may make '29 look 'walk in park'... As central banks continue to splash their
cash over the system, so far to little effect, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard argues
things are rapidly spiralling out of their control Twenty billion dollars here,
$20bn there, and a lush half-trillion from the European Central Bank at
give-away rates for Christmas. Buckets of liquidity are being splashed over the
North Atlantic banking system, so far with meagre or fleeting effects.
"Liquidity doesn't do anything in this situation," says Anna
Schwartz, the doyenne of US monetarism and life-time student (with Milton
Friedman) of the Great Depression."It cannot deal with ….. that lots of
firms are going bankrupt. The banks and the hedge funds have not fully
acknowledged who is in trouble. That is the critical issue," she adds…..
NEWS
FLASH: Direct from Lost Angeles Learning Annex – Presenting mobster t_rump of
new yoke, new joyzey, and now caleefornia mob fame with his continuing message
for the past several years: buy real estate (and watch the values go
down…..riiiiight!).
Bank sues Trump over Chicago
tower loan...
Trump casino to miss interest
payment...
ANALYST FORECASTS: BULLS
AND BEARS By Richard Shaw [there were 3 bull forecasts which are bull s**t and not
included in the following excerpt to preclude fraud and conserve space; even
the neutrals are a stretch]
…..BEAR - May 30: Morgan Stanley equity analyst Jason Todd says sell this
S&P 500 rally. He says Morgan Stanley does not see large upside above
825-850. He said, “In the rush to buy a cyclical recovery, it seems earnings or
valuation no longer matters. We would be comfortable with this view if the
earnings trough was closer, but it is not.”
BEAR - MAY 28: Berkshire Hathaway possible successor to Warren Buffet, David Sokol, says they see no evidence of the green shoots that been a stimulus to the stock market. He sees the most significant headwinds to the electric utility industry in his 30 years, and see continuing housing industry problems.
BEAR?/BULL? - May 28: PIMCO co-CEO Bill Gross (manager of world’s largest bond fund) portrays “new normal” including accelerating inflation toward the latter part of a three- to five-year cycle, and the need to reexamine accepted notions about investing. He said stocks have not and will not always outperform bonds, and having 60% to 80% of portfolio assets in stocks may not always make sense. He believes the dollar will lose its status as the reserve currency; Brazil, India and China (forget Russia) will offer the best growth. The U.S. government will be selling trillions in Treasuries; the US savings rate may rise significantly, and the consumer economy may be shrinking long term due to the aging of the population.
BULL?/BEAR? - May 28: GMO CEO Jeremy Grantham predicts higher US savings and lower consumption with many postponed retirements. He sees some reasonable values within the stock market now and sees the third year of the presidential cycle (2011) as the most promising. He is not certain that a robust rally will continune. Like John Bogle, he believes in the principle of having your age as the percentage of bonds in your portfolio. He expects a bubble in emerging market stocks to develop.
BEAR - MAY 26: Comstock Partners portfolio managers Charlie Minter and Marty Weiner, say P/E’s on “as reported earnings” are too high in consideration of the long-term trend in earnings (now in down phase). “Over the past 75 years, most market peaks topped at around 20 times reported earnings, and the troughs occurred at around 10 times earnings. The financial mania of the late 1990s pushed P/Es to over 40 times reported earnings, and the following bust never brought P/Es below 18 times reported earnings. … Going back to 1950, every instance where actual earnings rose above trend-line earnings was followed by a period where actual earnings went well below trend-line earnings. Comstock Partners believes that we have entered such a period now, and that the market is trading at such a high multiple of trend-line earnings that it will be difficult to make money.”
BEAR - May 19: Gluskin Sheff analyst David Rosenberg (formerly of Merill Lynch) says this rally is a sucker’s rally based on short covering. “The FTSE All-World market P/E ratio on forward earnings estimates is now around 15x, well above pre-Lehman collapse levels and nearly double the lows for the cycle … this was a rally built largely on short covering, pension fund rebalancing and the emergence of hope wrapped up in ‘green shoot’ data points. … On average, the S&P 500 undergoes a correction of more than 20% … at a minimum, take profits”
NEUTRAL (BEAR?) - May 11: Baring Asset Management portfolio manager Hayes Miller says “Estimates suggest there isn’t that much further to run because equities are fairly valued … Earnings growth for 2009 and 2010 can’t support prices too much higher than where we are today.”
BEAR - May 11: HSBC Global Asset Management chief investment officer Leon Goldfeld, chief investment officer at HSBC Global Asset Management said it’s “hard to see” enough profit growth to justify higher stock prices. The firm’s strategy will be to reduce its holdings of equities and move into bonds and cash, he said.Bloomberg TV on June 1, said HSBC forecasts 900 as the year-end price for the S&P 500 index.
NEUTRAL - May 11: Bloomberg compilation of analyst forecasts of 2009 earnings for the S&P 500 is at $57.17 (not stated whether “as reported” or “operating”). As of June 1, that puts the S&P at about 16.5 times forecasted earnings. Yale economist Robert Schiller said the historic average is a multiple of about 16.3. [we note that we are not in an average situation or stage of a market, however].
BEAR - May 11: Bank of America CIO for private wealth management expects a 10% correction. He said, “We’re going to be in a very volatile, chop-and-grind type of market. We’ve been shown that there is a small light at the end of the tunnel, it’s dim but getting brighter, and that’s why stock prices have come this far this fast. Now, it’s all about ‘show me.’”
BEAR?/ BULL? - May Letter: PIMCO co-CEO Bill Gross wrote: “Do not be deceived by the euphoric sightings of “green shoots” and the claims for new bull markets in a multitude of asset classes. Stable and secure income is still the order of the day. Shaking hands with the new government is still the prescribed strategy, although it should be done at a senior level of the balance sheet. If the government indeed becomes your investment partner, you should keep the big Uncle in clear sight and without back turned. Risk will not likely be rewarded until the global economy stabilizes and the Obama rules of order are more clearly defined.”
BEAR - April 17: Barclay’s analyst Barry Knapp forecasts S&P 500 at 757 by year-end 2009. He said, “The equity market has priced this recovery and then some. It looks pretty expensive to us.”
(7-1) SELL / TAKE ANY PROFITS IN THIS SECULAR BEAR MARKET SUCKERS’ RALLY PROGRAMMED TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED [ Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years ] AND COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING [ Goldman Sachs on pace for record bonuses: report (Reuters) [$$] Big Pay Packages Return to Wall Street as new fraud gains steam (at The Wall Street Journal Online) ] BASED ON CONTINUED BAD NEWS ( ie., BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... Job losses / job concerns realistically weigh on confidence, real estate values/prices continue downward trend as per Case / Shiller Index (-18.1%, -21% in california) Gerald Celente speaks on Cap and Trade and other handicaps to the US economy HOW MANY TIMES CAN THE WALL STREET FRAUDS, WITH CYCLICAL REGULARITY, DO THE SAME OR SIMILAR FRAUD WITH IMPUNITY (STILL NOT ONE PROSECUTION IN THE MOST RECENT MASSIVE SECURITIES FRAUD, BUT PLENTY OF OBFUSCATION EMANATING FROM THE PERPETRATORS AS WELL AS THOSE WHO SHOULD BE PROSECUTING /PURSUING THEM) NOW REFLATING THE STOCK MARKET BUBBLE BASED UPON NOTHING AT ALL (BAD NEWS,FRAUD AND BULL S**T), CHANGING ACCOUNTING RULES TO FACILITATE THE COMMISSIONABLE BUBBLE FROM WHICH THE SOURCE OF FUNDS TO EVEN PAY BACK LOANS TO AVOID SCRUTINY OF THEIR NEW FRAUD IS GENERATED [SAVINGS AND LOAN DEBACLE, DOT.COM SELL THE SIZZLE BUST /DEBACLE, RECYCLED /REPACKAGED /RESOLD /RECOMMISSIONED WORTHLESS COLLATERALIZED SECURITIES /PAPER (IN THE TRILLIONS YET STILL NOT ADDRESSED), ETC., THE FRAUDS ARE GETTING LARGER, HENCE THE RIDICULOUS TOO BIG TO FAIL MANTRA … HOW PATHETIC! … THAT MONEY HAS TO COME FROM SOMEPLACE, IE., PRINTING, CREATING, YOUR POCKETS, … NOT OUT OF THIN AIR! ] TYPICAL END OF QUARTER FRAUD/WINDOW DRESSING TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED [ Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years ] AND COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING [ Goldman Sachs on pace for record bonuses: report (Reuters) ] BASED ON CONTINUED BAD NEWS ( ie., BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... , personal income up modest .2% and spending down, China calls for new reserve currency to supplant worthless dollar Dollar And Stocks Drop As China Calls For New Global Currency , continuing unemployment claims at or near record 627,000, weekly unemployment claims up 15,000, and GDP contraction –5.5%, all worse than expected (lennar wider than expected quarterly loss rallies stock…riiiiight!) Jobless claims rise; GDP dips in 1Q ; soothing words/b.s. from fed which previously predicted no recession that economy still contracting but that the contraction is somewhat slowing…what b**l s**t!…, analysts- buffet/economy in shambles, Hogan/negative GDP growth and inflation owing to debasement of the dollar as well as deficit spending/pump-priming in the trillions, joker stein/economy a mess and continued job losses, new home sales down .6%; U.S. Home Prices Drop 6.8 Percent in April as Foreclosures Rise foreclosure sales up 2.4%, prices down 17% year over year, [$$] Market Suffers Some Technical Damage Stocks tumble on bleak outlook for world economy U.S. regulators close their 40th bank of the year , Next Major Move In Stock Market Will Be Down world economy to shrink by worse than previously predicted 2.9% and big difference between not getting worse and getting better, market got ahead of itself, stalled out, still depression/more job losses, higher oil-gas prices / higher interest rates / heavy debt to pare down is 1-3 year drag on economy, even if believed (I don’t) the labor dept. far better than expected job numbers by increased debt (spending) to produce same is not economically sound or sustainable, viz., record spending with record low revenues, rating cuts for bank sector, analysts concur in significant 5-15% (reality says 15-25%) pullback/correction for stocks , institutional selling, industrial production/construction down 1.1%, housing starts allegedly up but if believed will only increase the plethora of unsold inventories, empire manufacturing index suffers unexpectedly severe decline…daaaah!, credit dard defaults at record high, analysts concur that fundamentals don’t support stock rally and that pac money(defacto bribes) might derail any meaningful reform/regulation which is of concern to the frauds on wall street who should be prosecuted, record loss of wealth, higher gas prices, job losses, higher interest rates / yields, higher commodity prices, higher deficits, hyperinflation, record continuing unemployment claims at 6.8 million, worthless Weimar dollar crashing, money supply exploding with hyperinflation/higher interest rates coming, budget deficit at new highs and trade deficit worse than expected, analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets , new record for continuing unemployment claims, fed downgrades outlook that previously provided b.s. for suckers’ rally, record low for new housing starts, etc.) AND BULL S**T ALONE (ie., BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... , world economy to shrink by worse than previously predicted 2.9% and big difference between not getting worse and getting better, leading indicators up far more than expected … bull s**t …based in large part on inflated stock price component … more bull s**t … new reform with same old frauds say increased capital requirements and oversight of the overseers/rating agencies (riiiiight!…same old,same old - already have but no will to enforce existing laws, etc.), analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... foreclosure sales up, prices down , ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
(6-30) SECULAR BEAR MARKET SUCKERS’ RALLY TO END WELL OFF SESSION LOWS TYPICAL END OF QUARTER FRAUD/WINDOW DRESSING TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED Job losses / job concerns realistically weigh on confidence, real estate values/prices continue downward trend as per Case / Shiller Index (-18.1%, -21% in california) Consumer confidence suffers steep fall... Home prices post 18% annual drop... Worldwide Depression: Review of Global Markets . Four banks fail, bringing 2009 tally to 19 more than all of 2008 at a total thus far of 44 Dollar Falls Most in Month as China Urges New Reserve Currency Gerald Celente speaks on Cap and Trade and other handicaps to the US economy HOW MANY TIMES CAN THE WALL STREET FRAUDS, WITH CYCLICAL REGULARITY, DO THE SAME OR SIMILAR FRAUD WITH IMPUNITY (STILL NOT ONE PROSECUTION IN THE MOST RECENT MASSIVE SECURITIES FRAUD, BUT PLENTY OF OBFUSCATION EMANATING FROM THE PERPETRATORS AS WELL AS THOSE WHO SHOULD BE PROSECUTING /PURSUING THEM) NOW REFLATING THE STOCK MARKET BUBBLE BASED UPON NOTHING AT ALL (BAD NEWS,FRAUD AND BULL S**T), CHANGING ACCOUNTING RULES TO FACILITATE THE COMMISSIONABLE BUBBLE FROM WHICH THE SOURCE OF FUNDS TO EVEN PAY BACK LOANS TO AVOID SCRUTINY OF THEIR NEW FRAUD IS GENERATED [SAVINGS AND LOAN DEBACLE, DOT.COM SELL THE SIZZLE BUST /DEBACLE, RECYCLED /REPACKAGED /RESOLD /RECOMMISSIONED WORTHLESS COLLATERALIZED SECURITIES /PAPER (IN THE TRILLIONS YET STILL NOT ADDRESSED), ETC., THE FRAUDS ARE GETTING LARGER, HENCE THE RIDICULOUS TOO BIG TO FAIL MANTRA … HOW PATHETIC! … THAT MONEY HAS TO COME FROM SOMEPLACE, IE., PRINTING, CREATING, YOUR POCKETS, … NOT OUT OF THIN AIR! ] TYPICAL END OF QUARTER FRAUD/WINDOW DRESSING TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED [ Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years ] AND COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING [ Goldman Sachs on pace for record bonuses: report (Reuters) ] BASED ON CONTINUED BAD NEWS ( ie., BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... , personal income up modest .2% and spending down, China calls for new reserve currency to supplant worthless dollar Dollar And Stocks Drop As China Calls For New Global Currency , continuing unemployment claims at or near record 627,000, weekly unemployment claims up 15,000, and GDP contraction –5.5%, all worse than expected (lennar wider than expected quarterly loss rallies stock…riiiiight!) Jobless claims rise; GDP dips in 1Q ; soothing words/b.s. from fed which previously predicted no recession that economy still contracting but that the contraction is somewhat slowing…what b**l s**t!…, analysts- buffet/economy in shambles, Hogan/negative GDP growth and inflation owing to debasement of the dollar as well as deficit spending/pump-priming in the trillions, joker stein/economy a mess and continued job losses, new home sales down .6%; U.S. Home Prices Drop 6.8 Percent in April as Foreclosures Rise foreclosure sales up 2.4%, prices down 17% year over year, [$$] Market Suffers Some Technical Damage Stocks tumble on bleak outlook for world economy U.S. regulators close their 40th bank of the year , Next Major Move In Stock Market Will Be Down world economy to shrink by worse than previously predicted 2.9% and big difference between not getting worse and getting better, market got ahead of itself, stalled out, still depression/more job losses, higher oil-gas prices / higher interest rates / heavy debt to pare down is 1-3 year drag on economy, even if believed (I don’t) the labor dept. far better than expected job numbers by increased debt (spending) to produce same is not economically sound or sustainable, viz., record spending with record low revenues, rating cuts for bank sector, analysts concur in significant 5-15% (reality says 15-25%) pullback/correction for stocks , institutional selling, industrial production/construction down 1.1%, housing starts allegedly up but if believed will only increase the plethora of unsold inventories, empire manufacturing index suffers unexpectedly severe decline…daaaah!, credit dard defaults at record high, analysts concur that fundamentals don’t support stock rally and that pac money(defacto bribes) might derail any meaningful reform/regulation which is of concern to the frauds on wall street who should be prosecuted, record loss of wealth, higher gas prices, job losses, higher interest rates / yields, higher commodity prices, higher deficits, hyperinflation, record continuing unemployment claims at 6.8 million, worthless Weimar dollar crashing, money supply exploding with hyperinflation/higher interest rates coming, budget deficit at new highs and trade deficit worse than expected, analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets Jim Rogers: “The Worst is Not Over” 6/9/2009 , new record for continuing unemployment claims, fed downgrades outlook that previously provided b.s. for suckers’ rally, record low for new housing starts, etc.) AND BULL S**T ALONE (ie., BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... , world economy to shrink by worse than previously predicted 2.9% and big difference between not getting worse and getting better, leading indicators up far more than expected … bull s**t …based in large part on inflated stock price component … more bull s**t … new reform with same old frauds say increased capital requirements and oversight of the overseers/rating agencies (riiiiight!…same old,same old - already have but no will to enforce existing laws, etc.), analyst who called crash says inflationary depression, banks passed stress tests only with the help of fraudulent change in accounting rules, banks still insolvent, toxic assets even more toxic, dollar falling and a lot lower to go, $100 + oil by end of year, Obama/bernanke continuing failed policies of bush greenspan, recommends getting out of Dodge and u.s. assets Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... The Next Bubble Is Here. Have You Bought In? foreclosure sales up, prices down , ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
Tiny Tim says dollar assets safe... Laughter from audience... Why The Chinese Laughed At Geithner Paul Craig Roberts | The red ink that Washington is generating is a far greater threat to Americans than any foreign “enemies.”
(6-3) ONLY MODEST LOSSES RELATIVE TO REALITY WITH PROGRAMMED SHORT-COVERING/SUCKERS RALLY INTO THE CLOSE TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED BASED ON CONTINUED BAD NEWS ( ie., mortgage apps. down, service sector job losses/factory orders worse than expected, new record continuing unemployment claims, bernanke spend more money you don’t have but cut debilitating deficit…riiiiight…sounds like a plan with more job losses to come, etc., Economic data disappoint, indicate slow recovery Worse-than-expected economic data thwarts rally Jobless rates in U.S. cities zoom higher in April Sector Snap: Homebuilders tumble (AP) As the Dollar Falls Off the Cliff … Bernanke warns on deficits as Treasury rates rise ----- GOV'T OWES RECORD $63.8 TRILLION... The Big Collapse Is Very Near Dollar Declines as Nations Mull Reserve Currency Alternative AND BULL S**T ALONE (ie., $100 Billion Bailout For IMF Tagged On To War Funding Bill Economic recovery is wishful thinking Gold, Silver Climb as Dollar Falls OPEC: OIL COULD REACH $90... ----- , ‘SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY’, so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
(6-2) SUCKERS’ RALLY CONTINUES TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED BASED ON CONTINUED BAD NEWS The Big Collapse Is Very Near U.S. auto sales drop, but rays of stability seen Economic crisis boosts distrust of business: watchdog Dollar Declines as Nations Mull Reserve Currency Alternative Grand Theft Auto: How Stevie the Rat bankrupted GM Gold, Silver Climb as Dollar Falls Home foreclosure sales up, no profit discount car sales better than expected
…When measured in ounces of Gold, the DOW has been in a secular bear market since peaking in late 1999. (Click charts, courtesy of stockcharts.com, for full size image). The markets, measured by the S&P500 (S&P500 Charts) and DIJA (DJIA Charts), may have recovered to new highs in 2007, but the DOW:Gold ratio told a different, truer story of just how unhealthy the US economy was…
BEWARE OF THE SUCKER'S RALLY? ‘…Most recently, the
S&P 500 soared 24 per cent over seven weeks ending in early January, only
to plunge to a new low. It was a fairly typical sucker’s rally and bear markets
often need more than one to create sufficient disillusionment for a definitive
bottom. The 2000–2002 bear market had three, with average gains of 21 per
cent in the Dow Jones Industrials over 45 days. The granddaddy of all bear
markets, 1929 –1932, had six false alarms with an average gain of 47 per cent.
And Japan’s ongoing bear saw the Nikkei rise by at least a third four times in
its first four years with 10 more false dawns since then. Bear markets
typically end with a whimper rather than a bang, casting doubt on the latest
recovery according to Hussman Econometrics, which analysed numerous US market
bottoms and bear market rallies. With the exception of the 1987 crash, the
month before the lowest point of a downturn saw a gradual descent. By contrast,
bear market rallies were preceded by steeper declines and had sharper rebounds.
Another characteristic of bear market rallies has been modest volume on the
rebound compared to the decline. The current recovery fits the pattern of bear
market rallies in terms of volume and the “V” shape of the trough. Analysts at
Bespoke Investment Group noted that there have been only seven other periods in
the past 110 years with rallies of similar magnitude for the Dow. Three
preceded the Great Depression, three came during the Depression and one in
1982…’
New record for
continuing unemployment claims and as with all government data, adp data, etc.,
is fudged to whatever way necessary to help froth the market. Short-covering
explaining part of what remains of this continuing suckers’ bear market rally
and as admonished by analyst at Farr Miller is a bull trap. How about plain old
bull crap! One
analyst (Craig Brown) points out that we’re not at the bottom yet: excerpt-‘ I hate repeating myself, but I do not
see the economy at bottom just yet, so in some respects I will keep repeating
myself until either other people wake up to this reality or something changes
to wake me up. The markets were
down a bit yesterday and, according to Bloomberg, they were down due to fears
of the stress test results. I don't fear them; I fear what they hide. I fear
that a reported 10 out of 19 banks failed when the tests were not at all
stringent enough. I fear that the government will soft-pedal the results to
make them bad enough to have a tad of credibility but not so bad that people
run for the exits. Don't buy my word for it, others are saying the same,
including Nouriel Roubini. Nouriel has been complaining for weeks on how the worst case
scenario in the stress tests is already rosier than reality.’ Some
perspective from Sajal… Excerpts – ie., …Mark
Hulbert: That bullish bandwagon. Commentary: Some
sentiment measures showing too much optimism Art Cashin:
"This rally is still somewhat suspect. Albert Edwards : "Despite one of the biggest
economics and profit collapses in history, US stocks have failed to get cheap
in the same way that they have in Europe or Japan. My concern is that
the US equity bear market has not yet fully played out. "The
current pop in the market is not dissimilar to the many bear market rallies
between 1929-1933, where signs of economic stabilisation were met with 25% plus
rallies... This optimism was subsequently crushed." Charles Allmon … He still thinks the stock market
could decline to 3,200-4,200 on the Dow by 2011-2012 -- and that it could cross
the price of gold. Jim
Bianco: "I don't think we are getting out of this for
a long while. This has been a lousy stock rally. … …traders living in a
fool's paradise if they continue to drive the markets higher by buying stocks
based on earnings that are down, say, 50 percent from this time last year, only
because they're not down 75 percent… Diane Garnick, investment strategist at Invesco...In an interview on Tech Ticker, Garnick says that
companies are beating earnings expectations in the first quarter by Draconian
cost-cutting, an unsustainable strategy for long-term growth. More importantly,
although companies are beating profit estimates, thanks to the cost-cutting,
they are missing expectations for revenue, she says. Further, cost-cutting via
layoffs hurts the economy as a whole, Garnick argues, because the unemployed
spend less money… U.S. Economy: GDP Shrinks in
Worst Slump in 50 Years "You
have to balance hope with reality," says Doug Sandler, chief equity
officer at Riverfront Investment Group. Sandler tells Andrew O'Day "this
is a good example of a year where you probably have a lot of hope early, then
the reality coming through…” …[The upshot is that the fraud continues in churn-and-earn
fashion with investors, taxpayer, etc., getting burned for the sake of wall
street greed/fraud. The lunatic wall street frauds’ desperation linked to their
substantial crimes and booty which must be disgorged through prosecution,
especially since none of the real problems (hundreds
of trillions of fraudulent/worthless securities, etc. - Analyst Andre Egleshion
puts the amount at $600+trillion) have been
addressed much less solved; hence, virtually all problems remain and there is
but an infinitesimally small fraction of the capital and resources necessary to
solve them thanks to fraud, incompetence, lack of knowledge/ability, greed,
etc.]. U.S. Economy in 2nd Straight Quarter
of Steep Decline "You have to balance hope with reality," says
Doug Sandler, chief equity officer at Riverfront Investment Group. Sandler
tells Andrew O'Day "this is a good example of a year where you probably
have a lot of hope early, then the reality coming through Wall Street sags on oil; S&P ends
worst week in 2 months Following Chrysler, GM slashing U.S.
dealers SEC lawyers probed for insider trading
GM, Chrysler to drop 1,900 dealers by
end of 2010 The Financial Storm Obama Says U.S. Long-Term Debt Load ‘Unsustainable’ “The Worst Is Yet to Come” China’s yuan ’set to usurp US dollar’
as world’s reserve currency Former Treasury Official who Devised
Formula for Rate-Setting Based on Outlook for Inflation and Growth Warns that
Inflation Looms, Slams Fed Policy Dr. Doom: Capitalism Could Fail Like Communism New York Fed: Most Powerful Financial Institution You’ve Never
Heard Of along with the missing $4 trillion you’ve never heard of Home
Prices Drop Most on Record... Federal Hiring Frenzy......average pay $75,419 A Coming Flood of Equity Issuance, aka
The Dilution Solution Fed cut banks' deficits after negotiations: sounds like a
plan…riiiiight!…report
Buffett's
Berkshire has first loss since 2001
Are stocks a loser's bet?YES!
Deficits soar even with rosy assumptions in new Obama
budget... America is broke. How broke? White House forecasts higher budget
deficit
US red ink rising even higher, to $1.8T Deficits soar even with rosy assumptions in new Obama
budget... STIMULUS WATCH: Early road aid leaves out neediest;
Auditors can't track transportation funds... Gas price jumps to 6-month high... Six GM executives sell more than 200,000 shares
John Hussman: Post Crash Bubbles
…Unfortunately, “fear” lows are only evident in hindsight, because as we saw in
2008, a deeply oversold market can become spectacularly more oversold before
recovering, and the “fast, furious” spikes off of those lows are often followed
by steep failures.... Fed
Inspector General Claims She Does Not Know Where Trillions Went Rep. Alan Grayson | Inspector General Elizabeth Coleman
responds that the IG does not know and is not tracking where this money is. Recovery? What Recovery? Newsweek | Don’t tell me that the economy is
getting better, or has even hit rock bottom. Prospects
of a quick economic recovery are but fool’s gold Boosting The Dying Dollar With A False Rally Suckers rally sets up the unwinding of the market,
Rally just like in 1933, wealth producers becoming impoverished, Fed officer
busted for fraud, troubles in the Economy are far beyond fixing,
interdependence of banks around the world expected to worsen economic problems.
New York Fed chairman Friedman
abruptly resigns BEWARE
OF THE SUCKER'S RALLY? Betrayal of the People By Wall Street, Banks, and
Government FLASH:
Treasury Borrows Record $361 Billion for 2nd Quarter... The Great Geithner Coverup Obama Maintains His Perfect
Batting Average for Appointing Failed Insiders to Key Economic Posts
Secretary of Labor Reich:
Unemployment Numbers Show We’re Already In a Depression
Corporate CFR Members Get Most of the Bailout Money New American | Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner served as a staff member of the New York City-based Council on Foreign Relations before being hired in 2003 to head the New York City branch of the Federal Reserve Bank.Watch out for the fake government stress tests (they lie about everything!). Note the delay in the rollout. Bank analyst Cassidy says bank plan a failure. Business week business analyst /reporter says (tongue in cheek) the optimism (irrational exuberance) must be the advent of spring and the birds chirping (in the heads of the wall street lunatic/frauds…cukoos). Analysts/Economists comments include: slow release of stress test results, details and accuracy of data crucial for stress tests (good luck!), things have not bottomed out but pace of decline has slowed somewhat, bleak outlook for GM, Chrysler and bankruptcy probably necessary because of legacy costs, and public pension funds with ridiculously rich benefits the next shoe to drop. Oxdown Gazette sums up the crucial story | ‘The 12 trillion that is being floated to insolvent US banks is essentially being looted in the paper economy’ (ie., churn and earn by wall street fraudsters who must be prosecuted and forced disgorgement/forfeiture in the massive securities fraud that still goes unmentioned though the source of this economic debacle, etc.). Four more banks closed by regulators, this years closures exceeding all of 2008 as depression continues John Letzing, MarketWatch April 24, 2009 SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Four banks in Georgia, Michigan, California and Idaho were closed by regulators Friday, costing the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s deposit insurance fund nearly $700 million as the effects of the credit crisis continued rippling throughout the U.S. economy. Kennesaw, Ga.-based American Southern Bank marked the 26th bank failure of the year and the fifth in the state of Georgia, the FDIC said. Farmington Hills, Mich.-based Michigan Heritage Bank then became the 27th failure of 2009, followed by the closure of Calabasas, Ca.-based First Bank of Beverly Hills. Alpharetta, Ga.-based Bank of North Georgia has agreed to assume American Southern Bank's deposits, the FDIC said in a statement…
All reasons for previous reality plunge have been previously covered
and warned of here in real time; ie., new meaningless FASB accounting standards
which wall street frauds rallied on now have sold off on, worse to come in
credit defaults/losses, leading indicators down again, etc.. April 17 (Bloomberg) -- David Tice, the chief
portfolio strategist for bear markets at Federated Investors Inc., said
the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will probably plunge about 62 percent.
He spoke during a Bloomberg Television interview today. The Federated Prudent
Bear Fund that he founded returned 6.7 percent last year as the S&P 500
plunged 38 percent, the most since 1937. Tice said the benchmark index for U.S.
stocks may slump to about 325. It closed today at 865.30. The measure has
surged 28 percent since March 9, the most in five weeks since the 1930s. SUCKER'S RALLY APPROACHING AN END by Peter
Cooper: Whatever the technical reason for the
25 percent rise in the S&P over the past five weeks, or a more modest eight
percent bounce in GCC regional stock prices, the absurdness of this sucker’s
rally ought to be obvious to all. Unemployment is still rising, house prices
are still falling, and the fundamentals of bank balance sheets are still
deteriorating with total bad debts unknown except that we know they must be
getting worse. Global trade fell off a cliff in the first quarter of the year.
Even Mercedes car sales to the oil rich of the GCC fell 23 per cent. The
collapse of the world’s second largest economy, Japan, has been unprecedented.
Bad news coming … The stock market pattern in 2008-9
has so far been a mirror image of the crash of 1929-30 with a halving of prices
from the autumn followed by a 25 per cent rally from March lows. In April 1930
stocks moved sideways and then they crashed another 50 per cent into the
summer… New record
continuing unemployment claims in excess of 6 million, -11% for new home sales
(unexpected but stocks and even homebuilders rallied), Bloomberg reports $13
trillion (much unaccounted for) taxpayer/bailout funds spent/lent/stolen by who
knows what/where/how (ie.,replace stolen funds?, etc.), second largest mall co.
to bankruptcy with more to come along with more commercial real estate
foreclosures. ‘…initial
claims for the week ending April 11 totaled 610,000, which is down more than
expected from the prior week, but continuing claims climbed more than expected
to a new record of 6.02 million. Separately, housing starts disappointed
investors hoping to find signs of a recovery in home building. Housing starts
for March totaled 510,000, which was below the 540,000 starts that were
expected and down from the prior month. Meanwhile, building permits in March
totaled 513,000, which is below the 549,000 permits that were expected, down
from February…’
SUCKER'S
RALLY APPROACHING AN END by Peter Cooper: Whatever the technical reason for the 25 percent rise in the
S&P over the past five weeks, or a more modest eight percent bounce in GCC
regional stock prices, the absurdness of this sucker’s rally ought to be
obvious to all. Unemployment is still rising, house prices are still falling,
and the fundamentals of bank balance sheets are still deteriorating with total
bad debts unknown except that we know they must be getting worse. Global trade
fell off a cliff in the first quarter of the year. Even Mercedes car sales to
the oil rich of the GCC fell 23 per cent. The collapse of the world’s second
largest economy, Japan, has been unprecedented.
Bad news coming
… The stock market pattern in 2008-9 has so far been a mirror image of the
crash of 1929-30 with a halving of prices from the autumn followed by a 25 per
cent rally from March lows. In April 1930 stocks moved sideways and then they
crashed another 50 per cent into the summer. What possible reason is there for
optimism to believe that history will not repeat itself? Government stimulus
packages have more than likely been too small and too late to prevent another
down leg in stocks, and will take time to revive the real economy, if indeed
they can do so. They might just stop the worst possible scenario but are they
going to prevent the plunge downwards? Governments have not managed it so far.
Consumers and
unemployment
…It will take more than weasel words from US bankers and ‘green shoots’ in the
waffle of President Obama to put things right. Eventually global stock markets
will reach a bottom but they are not close to having visited it just yet. Wall
Street and its friends are playing investors as suckers but they are in danger
of overdoing it. For once these guys are impoverished where will the next bunch
of fools come from? Goldman Sachs' (GS)
results this week might well mark the top of the rally, beyond that the only
way is down.
THE FOLLOWING AT LEAST TO PREVIOUS (7-6-09) IS MUST READ:
April 17 (Bloomberg) -- David Tice, the chief portfolio strategist for bear markets at Federated Investors Inc., said the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will probably plunge about 62 percent. He spoke during a Bloomberg Television interview today. The Federated Prudent Bear Fund that he founded returned 6.7 percent last year as the S&P 500 plunged 38 percent, the most since 1937. Tice said the benchmark index for U.S. stocks may slump to about 325. It closed today at 865.30. The measure has surged 28 percent since March 9, the most in five weeks since the 1930s.
SUCKER'S
RALLY APPROACHING AN END by Peter Cooper: Whatever the technical reason for the 25 percent rise in the
S&P over the past five weeks, or a more modest eight percent bounce in GCC
regional stock prices, the absurdness of this sucker’s rally ought to be
obvious to all. Unemployment is still rising, house prices are still falling,
and the fundamentals of bank balance sheets are still deteriorating with total
bad debts unknown except that we know they must be getting worse. Global trade
fell off a cliff in the first quarter of the year. Even Mercedes car sales to
the oil rich of the GCC fell 23 per cent. The collapse of the world’s second
largest economy, Japan, has been unprecedented.
Bad news coming
… The stock market pattern in 2008-9 has so far been a mirror image of the
crash of 1929-30 with a halving of prices from the autumn followed by a 25 per
cent rally from March lows. In April 1930 stocks moved sideways and then they
crashed another 50 per cent into the summer. What possible reason is there for
optimism to believe that history will not repeat itself? Government stimulus
packages have more than likely been too small and too late to prevent another
down leg in stocks, and will take time to revive the real economy, if indeed
they can do so. They might just stop the worst possible scenario but are they
going to prevent the plunge downwards? Governments have not managed it so far.
Consumers and
unemployment
…It will take more than weasel words from US bankers and ‘green shoots’ in the
waffle of President Obama to put things right. Eventually global stock markets
will reach a bottom but they are not close to having visited it just yet. Wall
Street and its friends are playing investors as suckers but they are in danger
of overdoing it. For once these guys are impoverished where will the next bunch
of fools come from? Goldman Sachs' (GS)
results this week might well mark the top of the rally, beyond that the only
way is down.
Madman Cramer – the ultimate contrarian indicator - CRAMER'S CALL: ANOTHER RALLY TOP INDICATOR Greg Feirman Wow, the bulls are really feeling good. “Wells Fargo Carries The Day” and the S&P and Dow closed at 2 months high and the Nasdaq is near its highs for the year. On Mad Money this evening, Cramer went so far as to call “a turn in the economy”, saying “the facts have changed”, “the situation has clearly improved” and “things are getting better”. This isn’t the first time Cramer has called a bottom and he’s been wrong before (For example, see “Cramer Declares The End Of The Bear Market” , Top Gun FP, July 31, 2008). The market topped out a couple weeks later. On Monday October 6, Cramer went on the today show and told people to sell any stock money they might need in the next five years. The market bottomed that Friday. It could run another couple weeks but this rally is running thin. Methinks me smells a top…..
Rational View Courtesy of ETF.COM: ‘…Due to our expectations of continued weakness in the financial sector, the looming deterioration of commercial real estate, the credit markets tepid backing of the equity rally, and the still very shaky and highly volatile global economy, it's our view at ETFdesk.com the recent run-up in stocks is unwarranted and presents an overly optimistic view of the months ahead. We believe investors should consider taking short term profits or use the recent run to reduce equity exposure they are weary of. We also believe investment grade debt (NYSEArca: LQD - News) represents an opportunity for investors seeking beaten down prices without the downside volatility of equities…’
Art Hogan recently summed up choosing stocks in
this environment thusly: ‘pick the best-looking horse at the glue factory’…..I
think he was as a courtesy to his industry overly generous. The administration
pitches hardballs to the auto industry while continuing to pitch powder puffs
to the wall street frauds who have perpetrated the largest (securities) fraud
in recorded history, turning a cyclical downturn into what is now unavoidably
depression, putting beleagered taxpayers in the unfathomable position of
funders/guarantors of the scam/fraud in bailing out the perpetrators of the
crimes (bush’s infamous base) who have financially benefited enormously (fees,
commissions, spreads, points, salaries, expenses, bonuses, etc.) from their
fraud/crimes. Still not even one prosecution from this
administration even though disgorgement, the legal remedy among other criminal
penalties, would aid the defacto bankrupt u.s. treasury!
ON WHETHER
BEN BERNANKE HAS REDEEMED HIMSELF AND WHAT THAT MEANS FOR STOCKS:
I do not
think so. On the contrary, I think what the government is doing and its
economic "dream team" under Mr. Bernanke and Mr. Geithner and Mr.
Summers are going to be, from a longer term point of view, rather negative.
But, you understand, we can all sit here and say it will all end in disaster.
That I'm sure. But, in the meantime, we can have big moves in markets.
On the new bad assets purchase plan:
I think he's doing the politically expedient thing from a very short term perspective. If you have cracks in your walls and just put paint on it, it will hide them and then you sell your house. But it won't solve the problems of the cracks - it's the next owner and these are the children of the current taxpayer who will pay for it. Marc Faber: 'It Will All End in Disaster'
China calls for new global currency (AP) Why Goldman Sachs Should Return Its TARP Money (at Seeking Alpha) Marc Faber: 'It Will All End in Disaster' Congresswoman presses Geithner on connections to Goldman Sachs Gerald Celente Predicts Economic Armageddon by 2012 Geithner Plan Will Rob US Taxpayers: Stiglitz
It bears
repeating, so preposterous was 3-23-09 Pavlov dogs rally [conditioning to
associate what’s good for fraudulent wall street, viz., privatizing profits –
still not one prosecution for what now is the largest fraud/scam/swindle in the
history of this planet – and socializing the losses, is somehow positive for
america/the economy by the magnitude of this suckers’ bear market rally and
prior market manipulations] when the same created the instant crisis in the
first instance (don’t worry about the frauds on wall street, they’ll get their
commissions again on the way down as they did in creating this financial debacle/fraud
as they clamor for more taxpayer/treasury money). They’re still
printing/creating those worthless Weimar dollars like mad, China Urges New Money Reserve to Replace Dollar ,don’t know
what they’re doing, are clueless, and disingenuously seek to divert attention
from the missing/stolen/bilked $14 trillion of taxpayer money with the
subterfuge of outrage over the relatively miniscule though not unimportant million
dollar bonuses (AIG, etc.), so-called fixes/plans, etc., so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE
PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! What the Pros Say: US Is Now ‘Bankrupt’ US is Already Bankrupt: Analyst
U.S. Budget Office offers darker economic and deficit
outlook The Geithner-Summers-Bernanke Plan
to Prop Up Asset Prices Has Failed U.N. panel says world should ditch dollar
Fierman: How quickly things change…..
Some stats from today’s rally:
S&P: +54 (7.1%) to 823
Dow: +497 (+6.8%) to 7776
NYSE Up Volume: 1,866,836,012
NYSE Down Volume: 44,683,760
NYSE Total Volume: 1,914,836,622
It was just 2 weeks ago (March 9th) that the S&P closed at 12-year lows and
the stock market felt like it was forecasting the end of the world. We’ve now
rallied 22% in 2 weeks! But if we look at the catalysts for this rally, they
really don’t seem to justify such an explosive move. Citi said they were profitable in
the first two months of the year and JP Morgan (JPM)
and Bank of America (BAC) said they were too. The Fed initiated some serious quantitative easing.
And now Geithner’s toxic asset plan this morning. I agree with the Capital
Spectator when he wrote this morning:
‘Treasury Secretary Geithner has released his plan to mop-up the toxic assets held by banks that threaten their solvency and the global financial system. Accordingly, the plan purposes that private equity firms partner with the Fed to purchase bank assets at some discount set by the private firms at auction. Then the Fed will leverage the purchase six-fold to buy more bank assets and assume all the risk of leverage. In other words, private firms will set the price and then put up half the initial purchase price. The Fed will then put up non-recourse loans to purchase six times more debt at the same price to be owned by the joint venture partners. If the deal works private equity splits the booty equally. If the deal fails, the government loses upwards to six times taxpayer's money and private equity loses only its original equity match equal to 1/6 the total loss.
Flabergasted? Don't be. How often can you cut a deal where you get to set the price and your partner puts in six times your money and you split the profit. IF THESE DEAL TERMS DON'T UNDERSCORE WHY THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD NOT HANDLE YOUR MONEY AND WHY THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD STAY OUT OF BUSINESS, WHAT DOES? Other deal terms are that the Fed will designate the private equity players, at least initially. Could it be that the Fed is creating another pass-through mechanism to simultaneously bail out or reward its friends? If so, look for Goldman Sachs (GS), Merrill, Blackstone (BX), Carlye Group, Texas Pacific Group, and perhaps Bear Stearns to be players. Look also for the typical MOS of some Structured Investment Vehicle, not much different from the Maiden Lane III SIV, to backstop or divert money where it needs to be--by gratuitous selection that is. Oh, and never mind that Private Equity may be joined by the Libyan Investment Authority (LIA and Private Equity article by Financial Times) as Private Equity at present is having a bit of a liquidity crunch with their own deflated, illiquid assets. In short, the Geithner Toxic Asset Plan is just another bank bailout and footnote to this era of 'Dark Capitalism" where profits are reaped and losses socialized in an ever transparent way.’
Trevisani: ’…The beginning of quantitative easing calls all three ideas in question; it increases the supply of dollars effectively lowering US interest rates well below Europe’s; the need for such an unprecedented step undermines the hope for a US recovery; and a devaluing dollar cannot be a safe haven. Add the projected Federal deficits and the dollar begins to look very vulnerable. If the Europeans go down the same quantitative road then the dollar’s disabilities may be matched by the euro’s. But if they are not, then the Bernanke dollar call may not be an option to buy but a call to sell…’ China and most of the financial world outside the u.s. agrees with the latter. China Urges New Money Reserve to Replace Dollar Kremlin to Pitch New Currency...
EMBRACE THE BEAR By Rev Shark There is an old saying that in a bear market, we slide down the slope of hope. Unfortunately, we have seen plenty of good examples of how that works over the past year. We have had dozens of new initiatives to try to bolster the economy that create hope for a few days. The market will get excited and we'll have some big point gains, but then doubts begin to surface about how easily it will be to turn this economic supertanker that is going over a waterfall. The buying stalls out, a few dip-buying attempts are made, but eventually we break support levels and more downside ensues. That is classic bear market action but the standard Wall Street reaction is to not accept it…[The upshot is that the fraud continues in churn-and-earn fashion with investors, taxpayer, etc., getting burned for the sake of wall street greed/fraud. The lunatic wall street frauds’ desperation linked to their substantial crimes and booty which must be disgorged through prosecution, especially since none of the real problems (hundreds of trillions of fraudulent/worthless securities, etc.) have been addressed much less solved; hence, virtually all problems remain and there is but an infinitesimally small fraction of the capital and resources necessary to solve them thanks to fraud, incompetence, lack of knowledge/ability, greed, etc. - Analyst Andre Egleshion puts the amount at $600+trillion] …INVESTORS …..FOOLED (at least today) By Rev Shark …..realization that economic stimulus isn't going to be nearly as simple or easy (or effective) as it sounds. We aren't going to spend our way out of this economic spiral …We'd probably be better off if the government did less rather than more. The great likelihood is that the unintended consequences we suffer will prolong the whole cycle. We have to let some bad businesses and financial institutions fail…
HERE’S THE REAL DEAL:
SUMMARY/RECAP OF LORIMER
WILSON 3-17-09 ANALYSES/REVIEW
Harry Dent, Jr.
Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and
mid-2013, especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to
implode a deep downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of
2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the
latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010 and
2012
Russell Napier is the author of the book “Anatomy of the
Bear”, a professor at the Edinburgh Business School and a consultant to CLSA
Ltd. which is one of the top research houses in Asia. Napier’s research
indicates (and I paraphrase) that:
The S&P 500 will Decline to 400 by 2014 (the Dow 30 to 3800)
The S&P 500 will then undergo a major crash that will see U.S. equity
prices bottom at almost 50% below current levels (i.e. to 400 or less; the Dow
30 to 3800 or less) sometime around 2014 as Tobin’s “q” drops to 0.3 signaling
the end of the bear market, as it has done at the end of the four largest U.S.
market declines in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982.
U.S. Treasury Sales Could Collapse Leading to End of U.S. Dollar as Reserve
Currency
Robert R. Prechter Jr. is author of a number of newsletters and
books including “Elliott Wave Principle” (1978) in which he predicted the super
bull market of the 1980s; “At the Crest of the Tidal Wave – A Forecast of the
Great Bear Market” (1995) in which he predicted a slow motion economic
earthquake, brought about by a great asset mania, that would register 11 on the
financial Richter scale causing a collapse of historic proportions; and
“Conquer the Crash: You can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression”
(2002) in which he described the economic cataclysm that we are just beginning
to experience and advised how to position one’s self financially during that
period of time.
Depression is Imminent
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to
below 777 which was the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and
quite likely drop below 400 at one or more times during the bear market.
Regulator: Before Banks Collapsed, They Pleaded With Feds To Let Them Fudge Their Books Ryan Grim | Before financial institutions collapsed, they went to the Financial Accounting Standards Board, pleading for a change in mark-to-market accounting rules so that they can continue to appear to be solvent on their balance sheets and hence, continue to defraud the public as they are now once again trying to do. This says it all! Will FASB remain viable by resisting fudge/fraud factor. Suckers’ bear market rally ( Citigroup Inspired Bear Market Suckers’ Rally ) to keep the suckers suckered and commission dollars flowing to the frauds on wall street
Why we think this is a (suckers’) bear market rally:
Citing 13 reasons that the bear will continue in spite of this rally seems appropriate.
1. Current P/E: the current 20+ P/E on trailing “as reported earnings” is too high for this set of negative sales, earnings and dividends growth conditions.
2. Forward P/E: the projected 2010 S&P 500 earnings by Standard and Poor’s at about $40 would only support 800 at best (20 P/E), and more likely would support 600 (15 P/E), assuming there was a general recovery under way — before that time, the current market should sell for less than 800, and perhaps less than 600.
3. Earnings: profits are still declining in the aggregate
4. Dividend Yield: banks and other companies continue to cut dividends, reducing stock appeal and putting total return in question until dividends stabilize and begin to grow (historically dividends generated about 1/3 of total return for the S&P 500)
5. Revenue: overall sales are down — declining sales, earnings and dividends are not reasons for bullish markets.
6. World GDP Growth: credible parties (Goldman Sachs, IMF, and noteworthy individuals, such as Nouriel Roubini, predict worsening global economies) — until forecasts for improvements within 12 months or less for the US or world economies become prevalent, the market is unlikely to “anticipate” with a sustainable trend reversal to a bull
7. Government Intervention: the US and global economies are currently highly government policy dependent, and while policies are becoming more clear, they are not all revealed, and there are suggestions more may be needed — the resulting uncertainty warrants low valuation until government policies to “save” and “stimulate” economies are no longer the centerpiece of investor hopes and earnings prospects
8. Real Estate: the US and global real estate asset deflation continues with waves of negative impact on household and institutional wealth — until property prices stabilize, or are believed to be about to stabilize, a new bull market will have difficulty gaining traction.
9. Other Bank Shoes to Drop: the major banks have not yet experienced likely future write-downs associated with non-mortgage asset types, such as credit cards and auto loans.
10. Auto Industry: the fate of GM, Chrysler and the entire supply chain is uncertain with unknown government involvement.
11. LBOs: private equity firms built on leverage may not be able to continue to service and rollover the debt they used to make recent optimistic acquisitions — those debts could be a further burden on the financial sector.
12. Retirees and Pre-Retirees: the 55 and over crowd who control the largest portion of US private assets are not as likely to risk their life accumulations in stocks relative to bonds as they were in the boom times of the last couple of decades — that will delay the onset of a bull and subdue the extent of a bull when it occurs
13. Credit Availability: the credit and leverage availability that helped the US stock market recover from the 2002-2003 bottom is not available at this time to increase household expenditures and corporate capital investment — even the US government may be put on credit rationing by China, which today said it is “worried” about the credit quality of their US Treasury holdings, which has implications about their willingness to support the borrowing our “stimulus” programs require and assume to be available. By Richard Shaw
Analyst Andre Egleshion points to continuing effect of credit default swaps and pegs the amount of the worthless, fraudulent (previously sold, commissioned, repackaged, resold, re-commissioned, etc.) securities at $600-$675 TRILLION, their continued effect on money pit AIG, that fed’s received $11.7 trillion since 2008 yet refuses transparency as to where funds spent, who received same, etc., agrees with comment that shockingly no prosecutions yet, economy re-tooling, need for stiffer regulation, points to historical fact that fiat currencies and private central banks have consistently failed, sees hyperinflation with dollar weakness (printed/created like mad) and higher oil. Hopes for funny assets [in addition to funny money, other fraud, relaxation of rules/laws/enforcement (real asset values) (remember the exemption from RICO garnered by fraudulent wall street-those campaign contributions really pay off, etc.) ], spur suckers’ bear market short-covering rally to keep the suckers suckered and commission dollars flowing to the frauds on wall street so SELL/SELL INTO RALLIES/STRENGTH/ TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU STILL CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME! NOW LISTEN HERE, FOR THIS IS TRUTH!: There is not enough money in the entire world to cover the fraudulent securities foisted/commissioned/ distributed/sold by the wall street frauds/perpetrators which if assumed/guaranteed by the u.s. government (don’t forget that social security/medicare are already technically insolvent/bankrupt - all monies/reserves going into the general account and already and continually spent) will only guaranty the insolvency of / worthlessness of the currency of the u.s. treasury. Cost to buy protection against U.S. government default surges Frank just said that he wants to prosecute those who’ve caused this crisis…waxman was supposedly doing just that in part (fog of war fraud-360 tons of $100 dollar bills stolen), etc…. If they don’t do this as said, among others, they should be forced resign as complicit. THERE IS NO MYSTERY HERE; HENCE, NONE SHOULD BE AFRAID TO LOOK, PROSECUTE, AND FORCE DISGORGEMENT! Celente: U.S. Has Entered “The Greatest Depression” …‘… Watch for fake reports and continued jawboning/spin/b.s. regarding bailout/stimulus as they are desperate yet remain protective of the criminals who caused the crisis with their fraud in staggering amounts far beyond the substantial scam by madoff ($50 billion) who now audaciously from his $7 million NYC penthouse seeks ownership of same along with $62 million (only in systemically fraudulent america). Why are they not seeking disgorgement from the criminals who benefited from the huge multi-trillion dollar fraud they perpetrated? No one yet has asked tiny tim geithner where the missing $4 trillion at the fed is…Why? Then there’s the $2 trillion in taxpayer money, the destination of which the fed refuses disclosure of…Fed Hides Destination Of $2 Trillion In Bailout Money …Why? How? This is criminal activity of monumental proportion, yet protected by the bureaucratic complicit frauds (I’ve experienced this directly in my RICO case), damaging lives here and abroad. Then there’s also the illegal wars, war-profiteering, war crimes, etc., that have bankrupted this nation, killed many innocents, etc., [remember, ie., the 360 tons of hundred dollar bills flown into Iraq that democrats/land of fruits and nuts henry waxman (doesn’t he look like a hedgehog or some other rodent) the lying fraud talked endlessly about while republicans were at the helm, yet nothing…no prosecutions…the frauds who stole that money should put same in the failed ‘stimulus fraud pot’…at the least, etc.]. An analyst previously said 2011-2014 earliest for bottoming at best. Another analyst previously pointed out there has been not one prosecution thus far and the frauds on wall street should be prosecuted and forced disgorgement. …[The upshot is that the fraud continues in churn-and-earn fashion with investors, taxpayer, etc., getting burned for the sake of wall street greed/fraud. The lunatic wall street frauds’ desperation linked to their substantial crimes and booty which must be disgorged through prosecution, especially since none of the real problems (hundreds of trillions of fraudulent/worthless securities, etc. - Analyst Andre Egleshion puts the amount at $600+trillion) have been addressed much less solved; hence, virtually all problems remain and there is but an infinitesimally small fraction of the capital and resources necessary to solve them thanks to fraud, incompetence, lack of knowledge/ability, greed, etc.]. Analyst Frank Cochrane looks ahead to 4,000 to 6,000 on the DOW, 700 to 900 on the NASDAQ, and 425 to 625 on the S&P, and says spending/stimulus programs will not work, a point on which he is correct and the low end of his ranges closer to reality. Not Just a Few Bad Apples - Corruption is Systemic in America In case you believe that there are only “a couple of bad apples” in the United States, here is an off-the-top-of-his-head (I could give many, many more including my RICO case) list of corruption by leading pillars of american society.
HOW MANY TIMES CAN THE WALL STREET FRAUDS, WITH CYCLICAL REGULARITY, DO THE SAME OR SIMILAR FRAUD WITH IMPUNITY (STILL NOT ONE PROSECUTION IN THE MOST RECENT MASSIVE SECURITIES FRAUD, BUT PLENTY OF OBFUSCATION EMANATING FROM THE PERPETRATORS AS WELL AS THOSE WHO SHOULD BE PROSECUTING /PURSUING THEM) NOW REFLATING THE STOCK MARKET BUBBLE BASED UPON NOTHING AT ALL (BAD NEWS,FRAUD AND BULL S**T), CHANGING ACCOUNTING RULES TO FACILITATE THE COMMISSIONABLE BUBBLE FROM WHICH THE SOURCE OF FUNDS TO EVEN PAY BACK LOANS TO AVOID SCRUTINY OF THEIR NEW FRAUD IS GENERATED [SAVINGS AND LOAN DEBACLE, DOT.COM SELL THE SIZZLE BUST /DEBACLE, RECYCLED /REPACKAGED /RESOLD /RECOMMISSIONED WORTHLESS COLLATERALIZED SECURITIES /PAPER (IN THE TRILLIONS YET STILL NOT ADDRESSED), ETC., THE FRAUDS ARE GETTING LARGER, HENCE THE RIDICULOUS TOO BIG TO FAIL MANTRA … HOW PATHETIC! … THAT MONEY HAS TO COME FROM SOMEPLACE, IE., PRINTING, CREATING, YOUR POCKETS, … NOT OUT OF THIN AIR! ]
PREVIOUS 7-6,2-09, PREPOSTEROUS WAS THIS SURGE IN THE LAST 20 MINUTES INTO THE CLOSE FOR SECULAR BEAR MARKET SUCKERS’ RALLY PROGRAMMED TO KEEP SUCKERS SUCKERED [ Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years ] AND COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING [ Goldman Sachs on pace for record bonuses: report (Reuters) [$$] Big Pay Packages Return to Wall Street as new fraud gains steam (at The Wall Street Journal Online) ] BASED ON CONTINUED BAD NEWS ( ie., BUFFET: ECONOMY IN 'SHAMBLES'; NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY... America’s Effective Unemployment Rate at 18.7%? US loses 467,000 jobs, unemployment at 9.5% 'We're in the Middle of a Crash': Black Swan... (7-2)Seven more banks fail, bringing 2009 tally to more than double all of 2008 at a total thus far of 52; Private sector sheds another 473,000 jobs in June... US lurching towards ‘debt explosion’ with long-term interest rates on course to double Jim Rogers Sells Dollars, Plans to Short Treasuries ‘Sucker’s Rally Beginning To Unwind’ daaaah…? Calls grow to supplant dollar as global currency China officials call for displacing dollar, in time Tracking Two Depressions, 1929 and now this HOW MANY TIMES CAN THE WALL STREET FRAUDS, WITH CYCLICAL REGULARITY, DO THE SAME OR SIMILAR FRAUD WITH IMPUNITY (STILL NOT ONE PROSECUTION IN THE MOST RECENT MASSIVE SECURITIES FRAUD, BUT PLENTY OF OBFUSCATION EMANATING FROM THE PERPETRATORS AS WELL AS THOSE WHO SHOULD BE PROSECUTING /PURSUING THEM) NOW REFLATING THE STOCK MARKET BUBBLE BASED UPON NOTHING AT ALL (BAD NEWS,FRAUD AND BULL S**T), CHANGING ACCOUNTING RULES TO FACILITATE THE COMMISSIONABLE BUBBLE FROM WHICH THE SOURCE OF FUNDS TO EVEN PAY BACK LOANS TO AVOID SCRUTINY OF THEIR NEW FRAUD IS GENERATED [SAVINGS AND LOA