Wall Street Lunacy 2006

Current Topics 2006

Financial Lunacy 2006

World Indices Weekly Closing Prices

Full Moons, Fraud, and Lunatics. What More Can Be Said.

Current Market Numbers/Closing Prices From Yahoo

Current Wall Street Lunacy Updates 2008

Wall Street Lunacy 1st Quarter 2008

(1-16-08) Economist Dr. Irving Kellner�..already in recession, monetary policy (rate cuts, etc.) will not help in such a scenario, collateralized mortgage securities have become worthless so write-downs, no bottom until housing/real estate falls further, consumer saving rates low, debt levels high, worse to come�..Economist Lawrence Summers says recession could be long and severe�..bankruptcies up 40%, industrial production flat, inflation up and much higher than reported DEFAULTS UP, Housing down, inflation up, consumer confidence down SHARPLY, TRADE DEFICIT NEAR RECORD AND ABOVE EXPECTATIONS, RETAIL SALES DOWN AND FAR BELOW EXPECTATIONS, ALREADY IN RECESSION DESPITE JAWBONING (BULL S**T) TO THE CONTRARY, fake economic reports/data, more bull s**t/spin, dollar to fall even further with fed panic, as stocks drop modestly relative to reality (DOW -34, NASDAQ �23, S&P -7). REALITY: THIS IS A BEAR MARKET IN A SECULAR BEAR MARKET IN A RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A SECULAR (AND QUITE PERMANENT-THEY�VE MADE ALL THE WRONG CHOICES) ECONOMIC DOWNTREND IN THE U.S. ��ONE ANALYST/REPORTER/JOURNALIST FROM INSIDE SOURCES PEGS THE SUB-PRIME DOLLAR VALUE OF THE SHILLED WORTHLESS PAPER AT $516 TRILLION (EVEN A PERCENTAGE OF SAME RENDERS THE PROBLEM UNFIXABLE-HENCE, CULPABLE PARTIES MUST BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE AND DISGORGE THEIR ILL-GOTTEN GAINS FROM, IE., COMMISSIONING WORTHLESS PAPER, TAKING A POINT HERE OR THERE AND FRAUDULENTLY PASSING SAME ON, AD INFINITUM, ETC.). Time to put the wall street among other corporate frauds in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their ill-gotten gains.(1-15-08) weaker than expected retail sales report for December, Wholesale Prices Up 6.3% in '07- Largest amount in 26 years,Dollar hits record low vs Swiss franc ,Survey: Asia, Europe Has World's Freest Economies,Citigroup raises a whopping diluting $14.5billion, cuts dividend, announces layoffs, $18 billion in write-downs and more to follow as subprime losses mount DEFAULTS UP, Housing down, inflation up, consumer confidence down SHARPLY, TRADE DEFICIT NEAR RECORD AND ABOVE EXPECTATIONS, RETAIL SALES DOWN AND FAR BELOW EXPECTATIONS, ALREADY IN RECESSION DESPITE JAWBONING (BULL S**T) TO THE CONTRARY, as stocks drop modestly relative to reality (DOW -277, NASDAQ �60, S&P -35). REALITY: THIS IS A BEAR MARKET IN A SECULAR BEAR MARKET IN A RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A SECULAR (AND QUITE PERMANENT-THEY�VE MADE ALL THE WRONG CHOICES) ECONOMIC DOWNTREND IN THE U.S.Time to put the wall street among other corporate frauds in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their ill-gotten gains.
(1-14-08) OIL PRICE RALLY RALLIES STOCKS, DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY CONSISTENT WITH FED PANIC, COMMODITIES/GOLD UP SHARPLY/RECORDS, STAGFLATION,IBM SO EXCITED THEY PREMATURELY JAWBONE STOCKS HIGHER WITH THE RHETORIC THAT HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN�..RIIIIIGHT!,
DEFAULTS UP, Housing down, inflation up, consumer confidence down SHARPLY, TRADE DEFICIT NEAR RECORD AND ABOVE EXPECTATIONS, RETAIL SALES DOWN AND FAR BELOW EXPECTATIONS, ALREADY IN RECESSION DESPITE JAWBONING (BULL S**T) TO THE CONTRARY, lunatics�/suckers� bear market rally/dead dog bounce (DOW +171, NASDAQ +38, S&P +15) REALITY: THIS IS A BEAR MARKET IN A SECULAR BEAR MARKET IN A RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A SECULAR (AND QUITE PERMANENT-THEY�VE MADE ALL THE WRONG CHOICES) ECONOMIC DOWNTREND IN THE U.S.Time to put the wall street among other corporate frauds in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their ill-gotten gains. (1-11-08)DEFAULTS UP, Housing down, inflation up, consumer confidence down SHARPLY, TRADE DEFICIT NEAR RECORD AND ABOVE EXPECTATIONS, RETAIL SALES DOWN AND FAR BELOW EXPECTATIONS, ALREADY IN RECESSION DESPITE JAWBONING (BULL S**T) TO THE CONTRARY, STAGFLATION, dollar down as stocks drop modestly relative to reality (DOW -247, NASDAQ �49, S&P -19). Nothing has fundamentally changed regarding the descent and decline of criminal/fraud banana republic america and the already bad news is worse than acknowledged. Watch for the fake economic reports/data, more bull s**t/spin, ie., insiders not selling-real reason is their fear of fraud prosecutions (they�ve known for quite some time that the business/economic scenario is much worse than purported/reported and have� made their hay� already predicated on same with many multimillion dollar pay packages for which disgorgement is appropriate), etc. Time to put the wall street among other corporate frauds in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their ill-gotten gains. (1-10-08) Good money after bad is the mantra on wall street as BofA with $2 billion already in Countrywide says they�ll shoot-the-moon, take the whole ball of wax, eat the whole thing, keep the fraud ball rolling/covered, etc., which rallies stocks based on bull s**t alone, notably that of fed head bernanke who jawbones (bull s**ts) stocks higher with promised rate cuts, even weaker dollar, and even higher hyperinflation thereby. Retail sales down and far below expectations, already in recession despite jawboning (bull s**t) to the contrary, stagflation. Citibank and Merrill Lynch desperately seek to sell more of themselves to foreign interests to cover substantial losses/fraud. Merrill Lynch to write down another $15 billion and more to come. American Express to write off more than $440 million in bad credit card debt. One respected analyst/fund manager says we�re in a bear market having broken through all resistence levels. Lunatics�/suckers� bear market rally/dead dog bounce into the close (dow +117, nasdaq +13, s&p +11) to keep the suckers suckered and computerized commission trade dollars flowing. Time to put the wall street frauds in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their illgotten gains. (1-9-08) Happy days are here again (REALITY SAYS NOT) say the frauds on wall street with new bull s**t talking point that the newly (not really, just covered up to perpetuate the fraud) discovered fact that we�re already in recession and that means rate cuts to make the dollar even more worthless and the hyperinflation even more hyper, and that the now conceded reality of recession will be short-lived. How about reality that the same marks the (continuation)beginning of a downturn from which there will be no coming back for criminal/fraud america.

Economic 9/11 Just as the Twin Towers collapsed from the top down, so too will the US economy from an Economic 9/11, when the high-stake speculators, banks, brokerages, and buyout firms that leveraged billions with millions get hit with reality. The Panic of 08 Failing banks, busted brokerages, toppled corporate giants, bankrupt cities, states in default, foreign creditors cashing out of US securities � whatever the spark, the stage is set for panic in the streets. America�s broke and the whole world knows it. As america�s economy spirals down and that the dollar will fall with it, foreign creditors are dumping dollars on the market � and even Third World street vendors don�t want to take greenbacks any longer. The further it falls, the less it�s worth. The less it�s worth, the less it buys. In the real world they call it "inflation." In america they call it "good for business." http://www.trendsresearch.com Time to put the wall street frauds in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their illgotten gains. Lunatics�/suckers� bear market rally/dead dog bounce into the close (DOW +146, NASDAQ +34, S&P +18) to keep the suckers suckered and computerized commission trade dollars flowing. (1-8-08) Housing down, inflation up, consumer confidence down, oil prices up, dollar down as stocks drop modestly relative to reality (DOW -238, NASDAQ �58, S&P -25). Nothing has fundamentally changed regarding the descent and decline of criminal/fraud america and the already bad news is worse than acknowledged. $14 billion ($21 billion in 2006) in bonuses to the lunatic/frauds on wall street for a commissionable (sub prime bundled) fraud well done, inflation up, dollar down, oil prices up, manufacturing down; one analyst/reporter/journalist from inside sources pegs the sub-prime dollar value of the shilled worthless paper at $516 TRILLION (even a percentage of same renders the problem unfixable-hence, culpable parties must be held accountable and disgorge their ill-gotten gains from, ie., commissioning worthless paper, taking a point here or there and fraudulently passing same on, ad infinitum, etc.).(1-7-08) With sloth-like reflexes and speed the fallible frauds on wall street now recognize, yes we�re already in a recession, with new bull s**t talking point, that�s good for some stocks - NOT says reality- as lunatics�/suckers� bear market rally/dead dog bounce into the close (DOW +27, NASDAQ �5, S&P +4) to keep the suckers suckered and computerized commission trade dollars flowing. Despite severe inflation (the fed excludes food and energy from their fake/worthless/meaningless calculation, because it�s allegedly cyclical�..riiiiight! And everything else is imported cheap for the purpose of increasing the deficit and eliminating u.s. jobs) the frauds are hoping for more fake gov�t reports, rate cuts to make the dollar even more worthless and inflation greater, etc., and hope they�ll escape accountability for their fraud ($14 billion in bonuses,$21 billion in 2006, on top of huge salaries, etc.). (1-4-08) Small dose of reality as unemployment rises to 5% and stocks drop modestly relative to reality (DOW -256, NASDAQ �98, S&P -35). Nothing has fundamentally changed regarding the descent and decline of criminal/fraud america and the already bad news is worse than acknowledged. (1-3-08)Despite economists expectations of fewer new jobs, ADP, a jersey based company not unfamiliar to the fraud/crime of placing fake/non-existent employees on payrolls to facilitate (illegal/drug) money laundering plays ball (I�m sure for a price/favor) with the frauds on wall street with a figure in excess of same (40,000) with the labor department also chiming in with fake data; durables down, auto sales down (Ford now #3); bull s**t talking points forlunatics�/suckers� bear market rally/dead dog bounce into the close (DOW +13, NASDAQ �6, S&P +0) to keep the suckers suckered and computerized commission trade dollars flowing. (1-2-08)Modest drop relative to reality on wall street, as DOW drops 221, S&P down 21 and NASDAQ down 42. $14 billion ($21 billion in 2006) in bonuses to the lunatic/frauds on wall street for a commissionable (sub prime bundled) fraud well done, inflation up, dollar down, oil prices up, manufacturing down; one analyst/reporter/journalist from inside sources pegs the sub-prime dollar value of the shilled worthless paper at $516 TRILLION (even a percentage of same renders the problem unfixable-hence, culpable parties must be held accountable and disgorge their ill-gotten gains from, ie., commissioning worthless paper, taking a point here or there and fraudulently passing same on, ad infinitum, etc.).

(12-31-07) Modest drop relative to reality on wall street, as DOW ends up 6%, S&P up 3%, and NASDAQ up 9% for year 2007. One analyst optimistically and modestly projects 15% decline for 2008. (12-28-07) If it looks/sounds too good to be true, it probably isn�t. An aphorism apropos to most frauds and to wall street particularly. Indeed, there was a time when economics/finance bore some relation to the level of stock prices which heretofore had been a precursor to economic conditions. Yet, with depression level economic conditions/indicators (those that aren�t fudged too much), the market has rallied to new highs taking huge commission dollars along the way. Fake gov�t reports, consumers spent (much) more than they earned, durables down, housing sales at 12 yr. Low and down 9%, dollar down, $14 billion in bonuses ($21 billion in 2006, on top of huge salaries, etc.) to the lunatic/frauds on wall street for a commissionable (sub prime bundled) fraud well done, inflation up; one analyst/reporter/journalist from inside sources pegs the sub-prime dollar value of the shilled worthless paper at $516 TRILLION (even a percentage of same renders the problem unfixable-hence, culpable parties must be held accountable and disgorge their ill-gotten gains from, ie., commissioning worthless paper, taking a point here or there and fraudulently passing same on, ad infinitum, etc.), dollar at/near record lows, housing/real estate/indices/prices down, durable goods orders down more than expected .4%, leading indicators down, bull s**t talking points forlunatics�/suckers� bear market rally/dead dog bounce into the close to keep the suckers suckered and computerized commission trade dollars flowing; deficits, fake/false government reports/data, expectation of rate cut because things are so bad despite higher than reported inflation and negative effect on worthless dollar, etc., all to keep the suckers suckered and computerized commission trade dollars flowing, while pros/institutions are tip-toeing to the doorway leaving you with their bag of tricks/fraud/bull s**t!  Nothing has fundamentally changed regarding the descent and decline of criminal/fraud america. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Very Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital via, ie., ipo�S - less than 5% of what they do, etc.), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades. (12-27-07) Modest drop relative to reality on wall street as durables up less than expected at .1% (still over-reported), oil inventories down, oil prices up, dollar down, etc.. (12-26-07) Housing price fall sets new record, higher oil prices, wall street fund refuses redemptions (ie., black rock�..once the frauds have your money it�s theirs to commission, pillage, and plunder), retail sales below expectations, all bad news but wall street no longer �climbs the wall of worry� but rather climbs the wall of rationality, as lunatics�/suckers� bear market rally/dead dog bounce into the close to keep the suckers suckered and computerized commission trade dollars flowing. How about the lunatic/frauds on wall street are just climbing the walls because they�re mad as hatters, nuttier than fruitcakes, etc.. Get your money out while you still can. Like Elvis, the smart money has already left the building. (12-24-07) Santa Claus rally! Santa Claus rally! �..riiiiight! The lunatic frauds on wall street have a right to a santa claus rally (looking toward future frauds they will perpetrate since there is nothing whatsoever to justify the current level of commissionable fraudulently worthless paper including the dollar). (12-21-07) Fake gov�t report from scandal-scarred commerce dep�t, (suuuuure), consumers spent (much) more than they earned, oil prices up, dollar down, $14 billion in bonuses to the lunatic/frauds on wall street for a commissionable (sub prime bundled) fraud well done, inflation up, one analyst/reporter/journalist from inside sources pegs the sub-prime dollar value of the shilled worthless paper at $516 TRILLION (even a percentage of same renders the problem unfixable-hence, culpable parties must be held accountable and disgorge their ill-gotten gains from, ie., commissioning worthless paper, taking a point here or there and fraudulently passing same on, ad infinitum, etc.), dollar at/near record lows, housing/real estate/indices/prices down, durable goods orders down more than expected .4%, leading indicators down, bull s**t talking points forlunatics�/suckers� bear market rally/dead dog bounce into the close to keep the suckers suckered and computerized commission trade dollars flowing (12-20-07) Fake gov�t report on GDP growth (4.9% suuuuure), leading indicators down again and tech-wreck will save us (riiiiight) new bull s**t talking points forlunatics�/suckers� bear market rally/dead dog bounce into the close to keep the suckers suckered and computerized commission trade dollars flowing, BEAR STEARNS Posts First Loss; Bigger-Than-Expected Mortgage Fallout... ,all the bad news remains the same�.. (12-19-07) Modest drop relative to reality on wall street, first losses ever for those wall street gurus/make that lunatics/frauds bear sterns, morgan stanley but higher oil prices on lower oil inventories rallies stocks into the close, riiiiight�.. all the bad news remains the same�.. (12-18-07) Housing starts down, building permits down, inflation (wholesale) (though still substantially underreported) up sharply (highest in 34 years), consumer price index shows higher than expected inflation (though still substantially underreported), lunatics�/suckers� bear market rally/dead dog bounce into the close to keep the suckers suckered and computerized commission trade dollars flowing, all the bad news remains the same�..

Housing Construction Hits 16-Year Low... Broken Seasonals Suggest a Bear Market(12-17-07) Another modest drop relative to reality on wall street as the i word plus the r word yield the stagflation word, with Monday morning quarterbacks very late to the game starting to talk recession, with fears of accountability for the fraudulent run-up/bubbles weighing heavy as all the bad news remains the same�.. (12-14-07) Modest drop relative to reality on wall street, as consumer price index shows higher than expected inflation (though still substantially underreported) , fears they may be held accountable for their fraud mount, and none of the sugar-coated bad news has changed�..(12-13-07) Inflation (wholesale) (though still substantially underreported) up sharply (highest in 34 years), bond prices fall sharply, lunatics�/suckers� bear market rally/dead dog bounce into the close to keep the suckers suckered and computerized commission trade dollars flowing, all the bad news remains the same�.. (12-12-07) Federal deficit up sharply, along with oil prices (inventories fell substantially), foreclosures up, dollar down, sparks lunatics�/suckers� bear market rally/dead dog bounce into the close to keep the suckers suckered and computerized commission trade dollars flowing, while pros/institutions are tip-toeing to the doorway leaving you with their bag of tricks/fraud/bull s**t!  Nothing has fundamentally changed regarding the descent and decline of criminal/fraud america. (12-11-07) Modest relative to reality drop on wall street as fears they may be held accountable for their fraud mount and nothing has changed�.. (12-10-07) The market started the week on a bulls**tish note, aided by a financial sector that rallied again on the back of news about capital infusions (good money after bad) despite write-downs/losses in the financial sector, ie., UBS, MBIA, etc.. Another fake report from the gov�t also helped the fraud. Already sugar coated fake data/news/reports have been as bad as could be and far worse than expected by the fed leading to new bull s**t fraud-facilitating talking point, viz., interest rate cut expectations despite worthless dollar and much higher than reported inflation, one analyst/reporter/journalist from inside sources pegs the sub-prime dollar value of the shilled worthless paper at $516 TRILLION (even a percentage of same renders the problem unfixable-hence, culpable parties must be held accountable and disgorge their ill-gotten gains from, ie., commissioning worthless paper, taking a point here or there and fraudulently passing same on, ad infinitum, etc.), dollar at/near record lows, consumer confidence down, housing/real estate/indices/prices down, durable goods orders down more than expected .4%, leading indicators down, oil price drop on �less demand� (riiiiight) rallied oil stocks (suuuuure) (11-30-07), deficits, fake/false government reports/data, expectation of rate cut because things are so bad despite higher than reported inflation and negative effect on worthless dollar, etc., all to keep the suckers suckered and computerized commission trade dollars flowing, while pros/institutions are tip-toeing to the doorway leaving you with their bag of tricks/fraud/bull s**t!  Nothing has fundamentally changed regarding the descent and decline of criminal/fraud america. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Very Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital via, ie., ipo�S), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

The time-lines below highlight the four recessions in the US economy since 1980�..While the NBER was only a little late in its recognition of the recession that began in Summer 1981, they were late to the game in the remaining three. In fact, during the last two recessions, the NBER did not officially declare the start to a recession until the recession had already ended. The u.s. is already in recession, beyond the fake data/reports, with much higher than reported inflation, etc..

Economic Expert Says Global Crash Imminent
Echoes former world bank leader with prediction of global recession Steve Watson
A leading economic expert has warned that a global crash and recession is imminent on the back of record highs in real estate, stocks and energy, combined with a devaluation of the dollar and continued speculative bubble thinking. Robert Shiller, the Stanley B. Resor Professor of Economics at Yale University told an audience at the annual Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) Week that a sharp downward correction is due in the global markets. Shiller stated: Perhaps we have gotten a little too confident in the global economic growth, said Shiller. The problem is high oil, stock and real estate prices. I believe that a substantial part is speculative bubble thinking. We have gotten too confident of the prices in these markets.

Economic Outlook 2008: Darkening Clouds
Dom Armentano Lew Rockwell.com Thursday December 6, 2007 Presidential election years usually are not recessionary but next year will be an exception. Several economic factors are colliding in an almost perfect storm to markedly slow the general economy and the stock market. The most important signal flashing recession is, of course, the sub-prime mortgage fiasco. After years of monetary inflation on the part of the Federal Reserve, individuals and families with poor credit were suckered into low-down-payment/low-interest adjustable mortgages that simply cannot be maintained or repaid under current conditions. Their incentive is to sell the property quickly before their equity evaporates and/or the financial institution repossesses it. Yet the massive oversupply of homes and condos for sale has pushed prices down at a record clip and made additional foreclosures even more likely. Next year, unfortunately, will be the Year of the Auction. The financial institutions have also been punished�well sort of. Various institutions including hedge funds that hold these poorly performing debt obligations have been forced (by accounting rules) to "write down" the value of these assets, take huge paper losses in the bargain, and pull in their financial horns. Thus, any near-term recovery in housing must now fight a record supply availability, falling prices, higher insurance costs and restricted credit�a near-term impossibility in my view. Moreover, the slowdown in residential and commercial construction will send secondary ripple effects throughout the economy. Laid-off construction workers don't spend money. Construction and home furnishing suppliers sell less output and make fewer investments. Even local governments will be pinched by declining property-tax assessments and fewer developer fees. Things are likely to get worse before they get any better. The second major factor indicating a near-term recession is the sky-high price of crude oil and refined product. Pushed upward by world-wide speculative Mid-East war fears and increases in demand (especially from China), increasing energy prices act as an inflationary "tax" on domestic production and consumption throughout the market economy. Higher costs of production will lower profits; higher prices will reduce some consumption. The only good news here is that any substantial economic slowdown in 2008 will eventually moderate the price of oil and other commodity prices as well. The third factor in the current recession scenario � and the real wild card � is the continuing decline in the value of the dollar in international money markets caused by our Iraq blunder and the Federal Reserve�generated oversupply of dollars. Some economists would argue that a devalued dollar is good for U.S. exports, and thus positive for the economy as a whole. I disagree for three reasons. First, the bulk of crude oil purchases takes place in dollars; a falling dollar translates into still higher crude oil prices. Second, the U. S. dollar is the major reserve currency of the international monetary system and dollar-paying investments (such as U.S. Treasury bills and bonds) are held in massive amounts by foreign banks and governments. Dollar devaluation makes these investments less attractive and any disinvestment in these areas would sharply drive bond prices down and increase interest rates. The third reason why dollar devaluation makes recession more likely is that it effectively prevents the Federal Reserve from pushing U.S. interest rates much lower. Any additional Fed easing (inflation) would be seen as a signal of even further future dollar devaluation and even higher dollar prices for oil. Unfortunately, we will not be able to "inflate" our way out of this recession this time. We will simply have to take our lumps and let market forces liquidate the bulk of the malinvestments caused by the unprecedented Greenspan money bubble. This liquidation process will not be pretty but it is necessary to restore a sustainable economic recovery in the years ahead.

Don�t forget: Criminal america has the highest crime rates in the world. No other so-called �civilized� nation even comes close.

Euro gains on dollar in official reserves...
FROM THE SUB-PRIME TO THE RIDICULOUS: HOW $100B VANISHED...
PAPER: TOP ECONOMIST SAYS AMERICA WILL PLUNGE INTO RECESSION...

UNDERSTANDING THE GREAT WALL STREET FRAUD (summarized)
*(12-30-07) The best and easiest to understand analogy, though not perfect, to the wall street markets is the kiting of checks at lightning computerized trading speed on which commissions are taken although there is nothing of real value underlying their fraudulent scheme.
*(12-31-07) The ubiquitous computerization of wall street functions, the enhancement/advance/integration of the said computer equipment/peripherals in terms of computing power and speed, along with the concomitant advance/sophistication of the programming concerning same has enhanced the ability of the frauds on wall street to effect their frauds with blinding speed vis-�-vis the funds entrusted to their care by way of programmed trades, ie., buy, sell, stop limits, etc.. An example (though not perfect) is illustrative:Dow drops 200 points as programmed sell orders kick in with some not so fudged negative news. Nothing changes but the following day the market rises 205 points on programmed buy orders (a little higher despite the absence of any positive news). Hence, the huge swings which have become ever so more prevalent. Though nothing has changed, hundreds of millions of dollars without relation to any value added (in economic terms, service, etc.) is taken in commissions (percentages, points, spreads) by the frauds on wall street on huge computerized trading volume (hence, the multi-billion dollar bonuses on top of huge salaries, etc.). The fact is that these funds entrusted to them are so large that such computerized �buys� can simulate other than rational demand causing prices to rise solely to generate huge commissions to them and new funds coming in (as in a ponzi scheme). The corrupt government has been complicit in terms of false economic reports, legislation protecting the fraud (ie., exemption from RICO accountability, etc.), while the courts are also corrupt facilitators (new york, etc., and similarly don�t count on arbitration panels).There was a time when transactions costs mattered in financial investment decisions. The trades/commissions are not a net positive for the economy but are indeed of great benefit to the recipients of same (who like termites eat away at other peoples� money, and whose marginal propensity to consume is less than those allocating their monies/pensions/401ks/savings etc.; hence, the mess to follow). Finally, the NASDAQ has become the �safe haven� but in reality as in the dot.com bust days are just the great story without much fundamental understanding that keeps the fraudulent ball rolling.
*(1-01-08)
Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Very Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital via, ie., ipo�S), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

Video: 'The most conclusive evidence' Bhutto was shot December 31, 2007
Ron Paul indeed Out-Foxed (for now) December 31, 2007
United Nations Comic Books Designed to Brainwash Kids December 31, 2007
Ron Beats Rudy? New Hampshire could surprise a lot of people
December 31, 2007

CIA-ISI Created �Qaeda Network� Blamed for Pakistan Troubles

In Another One of Many Blunders (will the israelis sell same to ie., China as they did with missile technology, info, etc.) israel to have access to U.S. National Ballistic Missile Defense System

Israel to assassinate Haniya: Report

Knesset Report Blasts Israeli Military Failure

Countdown: Mobman giuliani Making Millions From Data Mining Company

Olmert�s Latest Excuse to Thwart Peace Process: Presses PA to Take Steps for Fighting Terror
Israel: Biggest Single Self-destructive Irony of Western History Perhaps the biggest single self-destructive irony of Western history is best understood by standing in the town square of Bethlehem, allowing one�s gaze to pass over the roof top of the church that covers the stable where Jesus was supposedly born, and let one�s eye drift into the blue sky beyond and thinking: How on earth could it be that the Christians, whose belief in the divine center around Jesus� crucifixion carried out by Roman soldiers but done at the behest of the Jewish populace, could turn round nearly two millennia later and say to the Jews in effect: We buy the argument that you are God�s chosen people and this land is your land and we are going to turn it over to you as your �national home�, even though the Arabs or their forefathers have been living here since the Romans kicked the Jews out of Babylon after demolishing the Temple in AD 70. This is what British foreign secretary, Arthur Balfour, did in his famous Declaration, strongly backed by Prime Minister Lloyd George, a religious man who saw the Jewish cause as one that must be supported by Christian charity�..
US Must Re-Evaluate Its Self-destructive Relationship With Israel

(5-1/2/3/4/5-07) Blazing Full Moon and Lunatic wall street frauds rally, STAGFLATION, AS INFLATION ABOVE EXPECTATIONS (HIGHEST IN 16 YEARS), WEAK GROWTH BELOW EXPECTATIONS, Worthless Dollar Down [they�re printing them like they�re going out of style because they are (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3)], then there was also the Weimar Republic, the pre-1929 crash rally, but this is far worse. LEGENDARY VALUE INVESTOR JEREMY GRANTHAM, CHAIRMAN OF BOSTON FIRM GRANTHAM MAYO VAN OTTERLOO, SAYS WE ARE NOW SEEING THE FIRST WORLDWIDE BUBBLE IN HISTORY COVERING ALL ASSET CLASSES. First, realize that the criminal americans lie about everything, especially for money. One expert says that with near record lows against the Euro, Pound, etc., the translation into worthless dollars by multi-nationals artificially inflates profits/stock prices, but that is only part of the story. The Euro Next union brings the fraud to the european exchange rates, much like the carry trades in a ponzi-like commissionable paper scheme in Asia, which ultimately reverts to the mean (arbitrage) and as greenspan says, can�t last and will unravel into what would be tantamount to hot potato/musical chairs with someone holding the bag/precipitous decline/wiped out. The expert also correctly points out that there is now a total disconnect between the market and the u.s. economy which has and will continue to decline/weaken. The fact is also that although superior to the u.s., there are substantial structural problems inherent to the European economies. So absurd was this surge (like nutcase dumbya�s) that the higher oil prices rallied the transports.....riiiiight! Lunatic frauds on wall street rally on as bad business news can get, sales of previously owned homes take biggest tumble in two decades, consumer confidence down sharply , b**l s**t(including fake economic reports-they lie about everything), higher oil prices, and, ie.,ignoring reality regarding,erosion in consumer sentiment and one-year inflation expectations at the highest level in 8 months, rising food and energy costs, Systemic Recession The US is sliding into a long-term economic downturn, ChinaMerica America owned the 20th century, but it won't own the 21st, Dollar Down, Gold to Soar ...Real Estate Fiz...Recession 2007 ...Catch 22 � Lower interest rates in u.s. would decimate already worthless dollar REALITY COURTESY OF http://www.trendsresearch.com, negative inflation/economic data and continue their backward looking frenzied rally mode despite higher oil prices, unexpected jump in jobless claims, mortgage defaults highest in 37 years, retailers warning that April same-store sales will be weak, and the largest rise in import prices, Citigroup to cut 17000 jobs and earnings down 11% but stock rallies, national mortgage delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 2.87% in Q1, sentiment down, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the current rate of inflation remains too high, and on previous stellar employment report from government ...riiiiight!..., (what about the real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by acturial/accounting), as previously u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!..., despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A info, both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street�s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week�s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it�s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who�ve been printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they are (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3), remove words �additional firming� is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don�t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues,blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone close only moderately lower to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 73/75/29/23, S&P up 3/9/3/3, and NASDAQ up 6/26/6/6, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Rupert Murdoch Bids $5B for Dow Jones

AP - Rupert Murdoch hasn't shrunk away from fights as he built News Corp. into a global media empire. But his surprise $5 billion bid for Dow Jones & Co., publisher of The Wall Street Journal, faces tough sledding after the company's controlling shareholders said they would block it.

Iowa Refinery Snags May Raise Gas Prices AP
BP CEO John Browne Resigns Amid Furor
AP
Stocks Up on Murdoch Bid for Dow Jones
AP
GM, Ford, Toyota, Honda Sales Drop
AP

After struggling to find their footing all morning and much of the afternoon Tuesday, stocks finally garnered some of the momentum that just helped propel stocks to their best monthly performance since 2003. The underlying bullish momentum vaulted the Dow to another record close, finishing the first trading day in May with its eighth gain over the last ten years.Absent a catalyst to get buying efforts back on track following a 4.9% decline in March pending home sales and a higher than expected prices paid component in today's ISM Index report feeding into inflation fears, oil prices spiking to session lows late in the day gave investors something to cheer about. Crude for June delivery closed down 2% at $64.40/bbl amid speculation tomorrow's weekly inventories report will show a build in crude supplies. The fact that the Energy sector did not relinquish much in the way of its intraday leadership was also noteworthy.Of the eight sectors finishing higher, Utilities (+1.1%) continued to provide the safest bet for investors unsure if the two-decade old adage "sell in May and go away" will hold true this year, especially since there is no reason for the stock market to have rallied so strongly in April based on deteriorating fundamentals.Some more M&A activity also helped to keep sellers sidelined into the close of trading. Dow Jones & Co. (DJ 56.30 +19.97) confirming receipt of an unsolicited $60 per share offer (or roughly $5 bln) from News Corp (NWS 22.99 -1.01) was the day's biggest surprise. Speculation about more consolidation throughout Publishing (+3.7%) helped to offset weakness among retailers like Circuit City (CC 16.55 -0.90), which lowered Q1 expectations and withdrew guidance, and Liz Claiborne (LIZ 37.13 -7.59), which handily missed analysts' expectations.Microsoft (MSFT 30.40 +0.46) also made news on the M&A front, and the bellwether's 1.5% surge was an integral part of the leadership exhibited by Technology Tuesday. Shareholders applauded reports that Microsoft may make a bid for 24/7 Real Media (TFSM 11.97 +2.02) to keep pace with similar deals made recently by Internet search-engine rivals.On the earnings front, Dow component Procter & Gamble (PG 62.98 -1.42) highlighted the list of reporters posting a 14% rise in Q3 profits and raising the lower end of its FY07 EPS outlook. Vulcan Materials (VMC 115.27 -8.40) also turned in a solid earnings report. Be that as it may, with PG and VMC running higher in anticipation of strong results yesterday, both were greeted with a sell-the-news response and were among their respective sectors' worst performing components. Consumer Staples and Materials were the only sectors failing to start the new month on an upbeat note. BTK +0.2% DJ30 +73.23 DJTA -0.1% DJUA +1.0% NASDAQ +6.44 NQ100 +0.3% SOX +0.1% SP400 +0.3% SP500 +3.93 XOI +0.2% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1624/1434/2.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1518/1723/1.68 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

 

Jeremy Grantham: All the World's a Bubble
By Brett Arends

How high will the Dow go? 15,000? 20,000? How about 36,000? While euphoria sweeps stock markets here and worldwide, there are at least a few voices of dissent. One, unsurprisingly, is legendary value investor Jeremy Grantham -- the man Dick Cheney, plus a lot of other rich people, trusts with his money. Grantham, chairman of Boston firm Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo, has been a voice of caution for years. But he has upped his concerns in his latest letter to shareholders. Grantham says we are now seeing the first worldwide bubble in history covering all asset classes.

Everything is in bubble territory, he says.

Everything.

 


'The bursting of this bubble will be across all countries and all assets.' -- Jeremy Grantham


 

"From Indian antiquities to modern Chinese art," he wrote in a letter to clients this week following a six-week world tour, "from land in Panama to Mayfair; from forestry, infrastructure and the junkiest bonds to mundane blue chips; it's bubble time!" "Everyone, everywhere is reinforcing one another," he wrote. "Wherever you travel you will hear it confirmed that 'they don't make any more land,' and that 'with these growth rates and low interest rates, equity markets must keep rising,' and 'private equity will continue to drive the markets.' "

As Grantham points out, a bubble needs two things: excellent fundamentals and easy money.

The mechanism is surprisingly simple," he wrote. "Perfect conditions create very strong 'animal spirits,' reflected statistically in a low risk premium. Widely available cheap credit offers investors the opportunity to act on their optimism." And it becomes self-sustaining. "The more leverage you take, the better you do; the better you do, the more leverage you take. A critical part of a bubble is the reinforcement you get for your very optimistic view from those around you." It's something to think about the next time you hear someone tell you that the stock market will keep rising simply because the world economy is doing so well. That would make sense only if we were paying a constant price for each unit of world GDP, instead of higher and higher prices for one slice of that GDP -- equity.

Grantham concludes that every asset class is expensive today compared with historic averages and compared with the cost of replacing it.

 

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $64; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(4-30-07) STAGFLATION, AS INFLATION ABOVE EXPECTATIONS (HIGHEST IN 16 YEARS), WEAK GROWTH BELOW EXPECTATIONS, Worthless Dollar Down [they�re printing them like they�re going out of style because they are (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3)], then there was also the Weimar Republic, the pre-1929 crash rally, but this is far worse. LEGENDARY VALUE INVESTOR JEREMY GRANTHAM, CHAIRMAN OF BOSTON FIRM GRANTHAM MAYO VAN OTTERLOO, SAYS WE ARE NOW SEEING THE FIRST WORLDWIDE BUBBLE IN HISTORY COVERING ALL ASSET CLASSES. First, realize that the criminal americans lie about everything, especially for money. One expert says that with near record lows against the Euro, Pound, etc., the translation into worthless dollars by multi-nationals artificially inflates profits/stock prices, but that is only part of the story. The Euro Next union brings the fraud to the european exchange rates, much like the carry trades in a ponzi-like commissionable paper scheme in Asia, which ultimately reverts to the mean (arbitrage) and as greenspan says, can�t last and will unravel into what would be tantamount to hot potato/musical chairs with someone holding the bag/precipitous decline/wiped out. The expert also correctly points out that there is now a total disconnect between the market and the u.s. economy which has and will continue to decline/weaken. The fact is also that although superior to the u.s., there are substantial structural problems inherent to the European economies. So absurd was this surge (like nutcase dumbya�s) that the higher oil prices rallied the transports.....riiiiight! Lunatic frauds on wall street rally on as bad business news can get, sales of previously owned homes take biggest tumble in two decades, consumer confidence down sharply , b**l s**t(including fake economic reports-they lie about everything), higher oil prices, and, ie.,ignoring reality regarding,erosion in consumer sentiment and one-year inflation expectations at the highest level in 8 months, rising food and energy costs, Systemic Recession The US is sliding into a long-term economic downturn, ChinaMerica America owned the 20th century, but it won't own the 21st, Dollar Down, Gold to Soar ...Real Estate Fiz...Recession 2007 ...Catch 22 � Lower interest rates in u.s. would decimate already worthless dollar REALITY COURTESY OF http://www.trendsresearch.com, negative inflation/economic data and continue their backward looking frenzied rally mode despite higher oil prices, unexpected jump in jobless claims, mortgage defaults highest in 37 years, retailers warning that April same-store sales will be weak, and the largest rise in import prices, Citigroup to cut 17000 jobs and earnings down 11% but stock rallies, national mortgage delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 2.87% in Q1, sentiment down, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the current rate of inflation remains too high, and on previous stellar employment report from government ...riiiiight!..., (what about the real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by acturial/accounting), as previously u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!..., despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A info, both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street�s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week�s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it�s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who�ve been printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they are (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3), remove words �additional firming� is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don�t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues,blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone close only moderately lower to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average down 58, S&P down 12, and NASDAQ down 32, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Ford Exec Foresees Smaller Engines

AP - Susan Cischke admits that her vision is a little fuzzy when she looks more than two decades into the future, but she still sees an internal combustion engine, albeit one smaller, lighter and more fuel-efficient than the engines of today.

Circuit City Expects 1Q Loss AP
Stocks Fall As Traders Eye Economic Data
AP
Oil Prices Drop in Asian Trading
AP
Group: Wal-Mart Violates Workers' Rights
AP

After turning in such an impressive performance in April, it wasn't surprising to see investors finally start to question whether valuations would be sustainable over the near term, especially with the worst six months of the year [historically] beginning tomorrow.Before the opening bell sounded, participants were greeted with some encouraging news on the inflation front. March core PCE, the Fed's favored inflation gauge, was unchanged. That brought the year/year rate back down to 2.1% and closer to the Fed's comfort zone of below 2%, which we believe will be reached around mid-year to leave policy makers more room to address any economic concerns with some modest easing.Be that as it may, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq coming into today's action with respective gains of 6.2%, 5.2%, and 5.6% for the month, a rally built on a batch of quarterly earnings results that merely checked in better than lowered expectations offered little incentive for investors to keep forging ahead with the indices clearly running ahead of the fundamentals. As a reminder, earnings growth expectations for Q2 and Q3 still languish in the low single digits and, if the earnings game rules continue to hold true, the bar will be lowered even further if the economic outlook remains murky. Of the nine sectors losing ground, Materials (-1.6%) paced the way lower; but that could be expected since it ranks among this year's best performers.Consumer Discretionary (-1.3%) was in focus after RadioShack (RSH 29.14 +1.42) said Q1 profits soared five-fold. However, a softer than expected personal spending number earlier prompted some consolidation among several other retailers. Homebuilders were another weak spot after a government report showed that private residential construction fell by 1% in March.Energy turned in the third worst performance today, falling 1.2% in sympathy with a 1.1% decline in crude for June delivery, followed by a 1.0% drop in Technology. Both sectors ranking among April's top three in terms of performance also tempted investors to take some money off the table heading into a seasonally weak period for stocks.Consumer Staples was in focus following upbeat earnings reports from Wrigley (WWY 58.88 +3.83) and Alberto-Culver (ACV 24.33 +0.98), as well as an analyst upgrade on Colgate-Palmolive (CL 67.76 +0.72). Procter & Gamble (PG 64.51 1.53) and Avon Products (AVP 39.86 +0.35) running up ahead of their Tuesday-morning reports also provided a floor of support throughout most of the day. Nonetheless, not even the proclivity of the sector to outperform during periods of uncertainty or an economic slowdown was enough to keep it in positive territory.Telecom was the only sector to finish higher Monday, as Verizon Communications (VZ 38.18 +0.29) matched analysts' forecasts but added 1.7 mln wireless customers in Q1. Telecom was also the only sector that failed to partake in the April rally, closing out the month flat versus April gains of more than 4% on average for the remaining nine economic sectors. BTK -1.6% DJ30 -58.03 DJTA -1.7% DJUA -1.0% DOT -1.0% NASDAQ -32.12 NQ100 -1.2% R2K -1.8% SOX -1.2% SP400 -1.4% SP500 -11.70 XOI -1.0% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2172/895/2.03 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2379/910/1.50 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

 

Jeremy Grantham: All the World's a Bubble
By Brett Arends

How high will the Dow go? 15,000? 20,000? How about 36,000? While euphoria sweeps stock markets here and worldwide, there are at least a few voices of dissent. One, unsurprisingly, is legendary value investor Jeremy Grantham -- the man Dick Cheney, plus a lot of other rich people, trusts with his money. Grantham, chairman of Boston firm Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo, has been a voice of caution for years. But he has upped his concerns in his latest letter to shareholders. Grantham says we are now seeing the first worldwide bubble in history covering all asset classes.

Everything is in bubble territory, he says.

Everything.

 


'The bursting of this bubble will be across all countries and all assets.' -- Jeremy Grantham


 

"From Indian antiquities to modern Chinese art," he wrote in a letter to clients this week following a six-week world tour, "from land in Panama to Mayfair; from forestry, infrastructure and the junkiest bonds to mundane blue chips; it's bubble time!" "Everyone, everywhere is reinforcing one another," he wrote. "Wherever you travel you will hear it confirmed that 'they don't make any more land,' and that 'with these growth rates and low interest rates, equity markets must keep rising,' and 'private equity will continue to drive the markets.' "

As Grantham points out, a bubble needs two things: excellent fundamentals and easy money.

The mechanism is surprisingly simple," he wrote. "Perfect conditions create very strong 'animal spirits,' reflected statistically in a low risk premium. Widely available cheap credit offers investors the opportunity to act on their optimism." And it becomes self-sustaining. "The more leverage you take, the better you do; the better you do, the more leverage you take. A critical part of a bubble is the reinforcement you get for your very optimistic view from those around you." It's something to think about the next time you hear someone tell you that the stock market will keep rising simply because the world economy is doing so well. That would make sense only if we were paying a constant price for each unit of world GDP, instead of higher and higher prices for one slice of that GDP -- equity.

Grantham concludes that every asset class is expensive today compared with historic averages and compared with the cost of replacing it.

 

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $65; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(4-27-07) STAGFLATION AS INFLATION ABOVE EXPECTATIONS (HIGHEST IN 16 YEARS), WEAK GROWTH BELOW EXPECTATIONS, Worthless Dollar Down, then there was also the Weimar Republic, the pre-1929 crash rally, but this is far worse. LEGENDARY VALUE INVESTOR JEREMY GRANTHAM, CHAIRMAN OF BOSTON FIRM GRANTHAM MAYO VAN OTTERLOO, SAYS WE ARE NOW SEEING THE FIRST WORLDWIDE BUBBLE IN HISTORY COVERING ALL ASSET CLASSES. First, realize that the criminal americans lie about everything, especially for money. One expert says that with near record lows against the Euro, Pound, etc., the translation into worthless dollars by multi-nationals artificially inflates profits/stock prices, but that is only part of the story. The Euro Next union brings the fraud to the european exchange rates, much like the carry trades in a ponzi-like commissionable paper scheme in Asia, which ultimately reverts to the mean (arbitrage) and as greenspan says, can�t last and will unravel into what would be tantamount to hot potato/musical chairs with someone holding the bag/precipitous decline/wiped out. The expert also correctly points out that there is now a total disconnect between the market and the u.s. economy which has and will continue to decline/weaken. The fact is also that although superior to the u.s., there are substantial structural problems inherent to the European economies. So absurd was this surge (like nutcase dumbya�s) that the higher oil prices rallied the transports.....riiiiight! Lunatic frauds on wall street rally on as bad business news can get, sales of previously owned homes take biggest tumble in two decades, consumer confidence down sharply , b**l s**t(including fake economic reports-they lie about everything), higher oil prices, and, ie.,ignoring reality regarding,erosion in consumer sentiment and one-year inflation expectations at the highest level in 8 months, rising food and energy costs, Systemic Recession The US is sliding into a long-term economic downturn, ChinaMerica America owned the 20th century, but it won't own the 21st, Dollar Down, Gold to Soar ...Real Estate Fiz...Recession 2007 ...Catch 22 � Lower interest rates in u.s. would decimate already worthless dollar REALITY COURTESY OF http://www.trendsresearch.com, negative inflation/economic data and continue their backward looking frenzied rally mode despite higher oil prices, unexpected jump in jobless claims, mortgage defaults highest in 37 years, retailers warning that April same-store sales will be weak, and the largest rise in import prices, Citigroup to cut 17000 jobs and earnings down 11% but stock rallies, national mortgage delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 2.87% in Q1, sentiment down, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the current rate of inflation remains too high, and on previous stellar employment report from government ...riiiiight!..., (what about the real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by acturial/accounting), as previously u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!..., despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A info, both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street�s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week�s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it�s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who�ve been printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they are (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3), remove words �additional firming� is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don�t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues,blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 15, S&P down 1, and NASDAQ up 3, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Economy Crawls, Raising Recession Fears

AP - The worst economic growth in four years is raising concern that troubles in the U.S. housing market will spread and throw the country into a recession before the year is out.

FDA Agents Raid Pet Food Plant, Offices AP
Adviser Ordered to Start Fraud Sentence
AP
AT&T CEO Whitacre Says He Will Retire
AP
FDA Rejects Merck's Vioxx Successor
AP

The major averages finished mixed and relatively flat Friday as investors looked lethargic closing out another impressive week of sizable gains fueled by this quarter's busiest week of earnings. Nonetheless, sellers armed with a weak GDP report, a mixed batch of earnings, and surging oil prices tried to fight the market's underlying bullish trend only to come up short, again.As has been the case throughout the Dow's virtually unabated month-long run into record territory, gains from just a handful of blue chips were just enough to help the average finish higher for the 19th time in 21 tries.Follow-through momentum in 3M Co (MMM 81.72 +1.27), and Honeywell (HON 54.87 +1.18) soaring 2.2% to a multi-year high, accounted for the bulk of the price-weighted index's advance; but fellow component Microsoft (MSFT 30.08 +0.98) was the day's headliner and Dow's best performer. Last night, the tech bellwether posted a 65% jump in Q3 profits that were a record amid strong Vista sales and provided reassuring guidance. A quiet 1.7% surge in shares of Cisco Systems (CSCO 26.99 +0.44), a suggested holding in the Briefing.com Active Portfolio, provided additional sector support. Dell (DELL 25.21 +0.30) was another tech winner, jumping 1.2% after CEO Michael Dell sent an email to the company's employees outlining steps to "re-ignite" growth. Minimizing the tech sector's performance, though, was weakness across the board from chip stocks after Broadcom (BRCM 33.40 -1.46) said it has limited visibility into near-term results. That news ran counter to what larger competitor Texas Instruments (TXN 34.79 -0.37) said earlier in the week. The PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index surged 3.1% on Tuesday after TXN cited improved demand predicated on the end to last year's inventory correction.The biggest surprise of the day was the economically-sensitive Industrial sector's ability to shrug off a weaker than expected advance read of 1.3% on Q1 GDP. While the data served as a reminder that the decent earnings trends for Q1 may not continue into Q2 and Q3, investors already anticipating signs of a slowdown and perhaps another round of supportive M&A news come Monday found just enough momentum to look past the dated nature of the GDP data.The Industrial sector got its biggest lift from a 2.7% surge in Dow component General Electric (GE 36.79 +0.95), which moved after a Citigroup analyst said GE should spin off its NBC and GE Money units. Environmental Services was the day's best performing S&P industry group (+7.6%) after Waste Management (WMI 38.21 +2.86) followed up a 19% rise in Q1 profits by raising its full-year forecasts. Construction & Farming was another source of sector support, getting a huge lift from Cummins Inc. (CMI 96.15 +10.16). The stock soared 12% to an all-time high after it handily beat expectations and boosted its FY07 profit outlook. DJ30 +15.44 NASDAQ +2.75 SP500 -0.18 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1836/1166/2.11 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1854/1392/1.40 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

 

Jeremy Grantham: All the World's a Bubble
By Brett Arends

How high will the Dow go? 15,000? 20,000? How about 36,000? While euphoria sweeps stock markets here and worldwide, there are at least a few voices of dissent. One, unsurprisingly, is legendary value investor Jeremy Grantham -- the man Dick Cheney, plus a lot of other rich people, trusts with his money. Grantham, chairman of Boston firm Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo, has been a voice of caution for years. But he has upped his concerns in his latest letter to shareholders. Grantham says we are now seeing the first worldwide bubble in history covering all asset classes.

Everything is in bubble territory, he says.

Everything.

 


'The bursting of this bubble will be across all countries and all assets.' -- Jeremy Grantham


 

"From Indian antiquities to modern Chinese art," he wrote in a letter to clients this week following a six-week world tour, "from land in Panama to Mayfair; from forestry, infrastructure and the junkiest bonds to mundane blue chips; it's bubble time!" "Everyone, everywhere is reinforcing one another," he wrote. "Wherever you travel you will hear it confirmed that 'they don't make any more land,' and that 'with these growth rates and low interest rates, equity markets must keep rising,' and 'private equity will continue to drive the markets.' "

As Grantham points out, a bubble needs two things: excellent fundamentals and easy money.

The mechanism is surprisingly simple," he wrote. "Perfect conditions create very strong 'animal spirits,' reflected statistically in a low risk premium. Widely available cheap credit offers investors the opportunity to act on their optimism." And it becomes self-sustaining. "The more leverage you take, the better you do; the better you do, the more leverage you take. A critical part of a bubble is the reinforcement you get for your very optimistic view from those around you." It's something to think about the next time you hear someone tell you that the stock market will keep rising simply because the world economy is doing so well. That would make sense only if we were paying a constant price for each unit of world GDP, instead of higher and higher prices for one slice of that GDP -- equity.

Grantham concludes that every asset class is expensive today compared with historic averages and compared with the cost of replacing it.

 

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $66; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(4-26-07) There was the Weimar Republic, the pre-1929 crash rally, but this is far worse. First, realize that the criminal americans lie about everything, especially for money. One expert says that with near record lows against the Euro, Pound, etc., the translation into worthless dollars by multi-nationals artificially inflates profits/stock prices, but that is only part of the story. The Euro Next union brings the fraud to the european exchange rates, much like the carry trades in a ponzi-like commissionable paper scheme in Asia, which ultimately reverts to the mean (arbitrage) and as greenspan says, can�t last and will unravel into what would be tantamount to hot potato/musical chairs with someone holding the bag/precipitous decline/wiped out. The expert also correctly points out that there is now a total disconnect between the market and the u.s. economy which has and will continue to decline/weaken. The fact is also that although superior to the u.s., there are substantial structural problems inherent to the European economies. So absurd was this surge (like nutcase dumbya�s) that the higher oil prices rallied the transports.....riiiiight! Lunatic frauds on wall street rally on as bad business news can get, sales of previously owned homes take biggest tumble in two decades, consumer confidence down sharply , b**l s**t(including fake economic reports-they lie about everything), higher oil prices, and, ie.,ignoring reality regarding,erosion in consumer sentiment and one-year inflation expectations at the highest level in 8 months, rising food and energy costs, Systemic Recession The US is sliding into a long-term economic downturn, ChinaMerica America owned the 20th century, but it won't own the 21st, Dollar Down, Gold to Soar ...Real Estate Fiz...Recession 2007 ...Catch 22 � Lower interest rates in u.s. would decimate already worthless dollar REALITY COURTESY OF http://www.trendsresearch.com, negative inflation/economic data and continue their backward looking frenzied rally mode despite higher oil prices, unexpected jump in jobless claims, mortgage defaults highest in 37 years, retailers warning that April same-store sales will be weak, and the largest rise in import prices, Citigroup to cut 17000 jobs and earnings down 11% but stock rallies, national mortgage delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 2.87% in Q1, sentiment down, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the current rate of inflation remains too high, and on previous stellar employment report from government ...riiiiight!..., (what about the real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by acturial/accounting), as previously u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!..., despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A info, both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street�s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week�s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it�s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who�ve been printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they are (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3), remove words �additional firming� is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don�t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues,blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 15, S&P down 1, and NASDAQ up 6, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Microsoft's Vista Sales Boost 3Q Profit

AP - Windows Vista buoyed Microsoft Corp.'s quarterly results, easing fears that the new operating system is too pricey, requires too many hardware upgrades and doesn't work with other companies' applications.

Exxon Mobil 1Q Profit Rises 10 Percent AP
Oil Prices Climb Above $65 a Barrel
AP
No Charges Against Frist in Stock Sale
AP
Ford 1Q Loss Narrows As Revenue Rises
AP

With the Dow soaring more than 800 points over the last four weeks, logging gains in 18 of the last 20 sessions, and finally eclipsing the psychologically significant 13,000 mark yesterday, it wasn't surprising to see blue chips take a bit of a breather Thursday. Nonetheless, a sizable gain from one of the price-weighted index's most expensive names again helped the Dow close at a new all-time high. Before the bell, 3M Co. (MMM 80.52 +3.55) handily topped Wall Street forecasts with a 52% rise in Q1 profits and reaffirmed its FY07 outlook, becoming the Dow's best performer. In fact, if it weren't for a 4.6% rally in 3M shares, the Dow would have closed in negative territory. Fellow Dow component General Motors (GM 32.40 1.33) was the index's next best performer, surging 4.3% after rival Ford Motor (F 8.21 +0.33) posted a narrower than expected Q1 loss that gave investors hope that GM will also surprise the street. Despite a late-day downturn in oil prices, Exxon Mobil (XOM 80.56 +0.64) turning in a commendable performance was also noteworthy. The world's largest publicly-traded component closed at a new all-time high after shareholders applauded better than expected earnings even though the average price of U.S. crude was 8% lower in Q1 versus last year.Of the four sectors finishing with gains, Technology was really the only bright spot following a blowout report from Apple (AAPL 98.84 +3.49). Last night, Apple posted an 88% jump in Q2 earnings on robust iPod sales and surged as much as 7.5% intraday before finishing at an all-time high. Turning in an even better performance on the tech-heavy Nasdaq, though, was Amazon.com (AMZN 62.78 +5.97), which tacked a 10.5% gain onto yesterday's giant 27% surge.

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $65; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(4-25-07) There was the Weimar Republic, the pre-1929 crash rally, but this is far worse. First, realize that the criminal americans lie about everything, especially for money. One expert says that with near record lows against the Euro, Pound, etc., the translation into worthless dollars by multi-nationals artificially inflates profits/stock prices, but that is only part of the story. The Euro Next union brings the fraud to the european exchange rates, much like the carry trades in a ponzi-like commissionable paper scheme in Asia, which ultimately reverts to the mean (arbitrage) and as greenspan says, can�t last and will unravel into what would be tantamount to hot potato/musical chairs with someone holding the bag/precipitous decline/wiped out. The expert also correctly points out that there is now a total disconnect between the market and the u.s. economy which has and will continue to decline/weaken. The fact is also that although superior to the u.s., there are substantial structural problems inherent to the European economies. So absurd was this surge (like nutcase dumbya�s) that the higher oil prices rallied the transports.....riiiiight! Lunatic frauds on wall street rally on as bad business news can get, sales of previously owned homes take biggest tumble in two decades, consumer confidence down sharply , b**l s**t(including fake economic reports-they lie about everything), higher oil prices, and, ie.,ignoring reality regarding,erosion in consumer sentiment and one-year inflation expectations at the highest level in 8 months, rising food and energy costs, Systemic Recession The US is sliding into a long-term economic downturn, ChinaMerica America owned the 20th century, but it won't own the 21st, Dollar Down, Gold to Soar ...Real Estate Fiz...Recession 2007 ...Catch 22 � Lower interest rates in u.s. would decimate already worthless dollar REALITY COURTESY OF http://www.trendsresearch.com, negative inflation/economic data and continue their backward looking frenzied rally mode despite higher oil prices, unexpected jump in jobless claims, mortgage defaults highest in 37 years, retailers warning that April same-store sales will be weak, and the largest rise in import prices, Citigroup to cut 17000 jobs and earnings down 11% but stock rallies, national mortgage delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 2.87% in Q1, sentiment down, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the current rate of inflation remains too high, and on previous stellar employment report from government ...riiiiight!..., (what about the real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by acturial/accounting), as previously u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!..., despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A info, both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street�s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week�s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it�s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who�ve been printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they are (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3), remove words �additional firming� is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don�t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues,blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 135.95, S&P up 15.01, and NASDAQ up 23.35, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Investors Hope for Continued Rise on Dow
AP - With the Dow Jones industrial average moving past the 13,000 mark for the first time, investors will likely be searching for a catalyst to send the markets higher.

Nissan's 1Q Profit Plunges 54 Percent AP
Oil Prices Hover Near $66 a Barrel
AP
Delta to Exit Bankruptcy Next Week
AP
China: U.S. to Help Probe Wheat Gluten
AP

Finally, the wait is over, as the attraction of a psychologically important number such as 13,000 on the Dow helped underpin a bullish bias right out of the gate and well into the close. All three major indices finished just off their highs but averaged a one-day gain of roughly 1.0%.While corporate profits continued to pour in better than analysts' lowered expectations, arming the bulls with enough momentum to power the Dow further into record territory, it is worth noting that news other than earnings also had a profound effect on the blue-chip index. Alcoa (AA 35.76 +1.81) soared 5.3% after saying it will explore the possible sale of its packaging unit. Another example was IBM (IBM 101.46 +2.97), which nearly matched yesterday's surprise 3.4% surge following very upbeat buyback news.Nonetheless, more evidence that Wall Street analysts were overly pessimistic going into the Q1 earnings season continued to provide a floor of support for stocks even though economic trends remain worrisome.On the economic front, March durable goods rose a stronger than expected 3.4%, boosted significantly by aircraft orders which also helped Boeing (BA 94.69 +1.02) shareholders look past management's conservative guidance. Even though the headline durable goods number combined with an upward revision to the February figure still doesn't wipe out the huge 8.8% drop in January, investors found solace in the fact that core capital equipment orders bounced back after two months of declines with a healthy 4.7% increase. Non-defense capital goods orders excluding transportation provide a clearer read on underlying business investment.Investors were also eyeing the Fed's Beige Book to see what it may or may not say about the economy. However, after the report to be used at the May 9 FOMC meeting showed "modest or moderate" expansion, "only modest overall wage increases," and generally stable consumer prices, stocks caught another wave of buying interest.A bidding war taking shape that is likely to result in the largest banking deal ever was also noteworthy. Brokerage stocks got a lift after a consortium led by the Royal Bank of Scotland announced a $98 bln counterbid to Barclays' (BCS 58.47 +1.62) $91 bln offer for ABN Amro (ABN 49.77 +2.37) earlier in the week.With the market already questioning whether gasoline supplies will be sufficient by the start of the summer driving season, an 11th straight weekly decline in inventories, and refinery utilization falling to 87.8%, boosting oil prices nearly 2.0%, still wasn't enough to deter investors. Crude for June delivery closed near $65.80/bbl.  The Energy sector surged more than 2.0%, providing some influential leadership as the day's best performing sector.Technology also provided notable leadership to the upside as investors scooped up bellwethers like Apple (AAPL 95.34 +2.10) and Qualcomm (QCOM 45.34 +0.98) in anticipation of more earnings surprises in the what is expected to be one of the largest contributors to profit growth on the S&P 500 this year.Consumer Discretionary was another bright spot Wednesday, getting its biggest boost from Amazon.com (AMZN 56.81 +12.06), which soared 27% after management raised its full-year outlook and said Q1 profits more than doubled. DJ30 +135.95 NASDAQ +23.35 SP500 +15.01 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1251/1827/2.69 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 943/2329/1.67 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $64; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(4-24-07) Lunatic frauds on wall street rally on as bad business news can get, sales of previously owned homes take biggest tumble in two decades, consumer confidence down sharply , b**l s**t(including fake economic reports-they lie about everything), higher oil prices, and, ie.,ignoring reality regarding,erosion in consumer sentiment and one-year inflation expectations at the highest level in 8 months, rising food and energy costs, Systemic Recession The US is sliding into a long-term economic downturn, ChinaMerica America owned the 20th century, but it won't own the 21st, Dollar Down, Gold to Soar ...Real Estate Fiz...Recession 2007 ...Catch 22 � Lower interest rates in u.s. would decimate already worthless dollar REALITY COURTESY OF http://www.trendsresearch.com, negative inflation/economic data and continue their backward looking frenzied rally mode despite higher oil prices, unexpected jump in jobless claims, mortgage defaults highest in 37 years, retailers warning that April same-store sales will be weak, and the largest rise in import prices, Citigroup to cut 17000 jobs and earnings down 11% but stock rallies, national mortgage delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 2.87% in Q1, sentiment down, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the current rate of inflation remains too high, and on previous stellar employment report from government ...riiiiight!..., (what about the real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by acturial/accounting), as previously u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!..., despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A info, both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street�s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week�s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it�s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who�ve been printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they are (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3), remove words �additional firming� is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don�t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues,blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 34.54, S&P down .52, and NASDAQ up .87, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Options Troubles at Apple Remain
AP - Apple Inc., on a tear with its popular iPod players and Macintosh computers, is expected to report strong quarterly results Wednesday but will face lingering worries over the role its iconic CEO played in its stock options backdating troubles.

Amazon.com 1Q Profit More Than Doubles AP
GM Says Profit More Important Than Sales
AP
Sun Microsystems Rings Up 3Q Profit
AP
Stocks Recover, Close Mixed on Earnings
AP

���� Today�s market close was such a joke, no further commentary is warranted.

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $64; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(4-23-07) Lunatic frauds on wall street only modestly lower relative to reality, b**l s**t(including fake economic reports-they lie about everything), higher oil prices, and, ie.,ignoring reality regarding,erosion in consumer sentiment and one-year inflation expectations at the highest level in 8 months, rising food and energy costs, Systemic Recession The US is sliding into a long-term economic downturn, ChinaMerica America owned the 20th century, but it won't own the 21st, Dollar Down, Gold to Soar ...Real Estate Fiz...Recession 2007 ...Catch 22 � Lower interest rates in u.s. would decimate already worthless dollar REALITY COURTESY OF http://www.trendsresearch.com, negative inflation/economic data and continue their backward looking frenzied rally mode despite higher oil prices, unexpected jump in jobless claims, mortgage defaults highest in 37 years, retailers warning that April same-store sales will be weak, and the largest rise in import prices, Citigroup to cut 17000 jobs and earnings down 11% but stock rallies, national mortgage delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 2.87% in Q1, sentiment down, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the current rate of inflation remains too high, and on previous stellar employment report from government ...riiiiight!..., (what about the real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by acturial/accounting), as previously u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!..., despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A info, both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street�s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week�s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it�s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who�ve been printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they are (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3), remove words �additional firming� is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don�t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues,blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average down 42.58, S&P down 3.42, and NASDAQ down 2.72, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Toyota Tops GM in 1Q Global Auto Sales
AP - Toyota Motor Corp. became the world's top auto seller in the first three months of the year, passing rival General Motors Corp. for the first time, the Japanese automaker said Tuesday.

Dr Pepper Hopes MTV Show Will Sell Soda AP
Boston Scientific Profit Falls 64 Pct.
AP
Texas Instruments Shares Surge 9.4 Pct.
AP
China: U.S. Piracy Complaint May Hurt Ties
AP

Stocks closed modestly lower Tuesday as a market ripe for a pullback lacked the overwhelming evidence necessary to extend recent market gains. With the Dow closing at record highs over the previous three sessions and garnering its entire 4% year-to-date advance over the last three weeks, it wasn't surprising to see investors take some money off the table. The Dow came within 16 points of hitting the 13,000 milestone earlier in the day, getting a lift from analyst upgrades on IBM (IBM 95.27 +0.69) and Caterpillar (CAT 71.85 +0.03), two of the price-weighted index's most expensive names.However, valuation concerns that prompted analyst downgrades on ExxonMobil (XOM 79.24 -0.52) and Pfizer (PFE 26.35 -0.62), coupled with an afternoon sell-off in fellow Dow component General Motors (GM 30.68 -1.00), pushed the Dow into the red for good. GM's Vice Chairman Bob Lutz said there has been some spillover of the mortgage industry meltdown into the auto business, giving investors another reason to question the sustainability of the market's recent run-up.As if valuations weren't already posing a concern, oil prices surging 2.6% and flirting with $66/bbl acted as an additional headwind for the bulls. Crude for June delivery closed at $65.77/bbl amid potential supply disruptions from Nigeria following its presidential elections over the weekend. Oil's rise did lure investors into energy names; but ExxonMobil's substantial influence on the sector offset gains in everything from Drillers to Refiners.Other news getting overshadowed Monday was another wave of M&A. Barclays PLC (BCS 58.27 -1.73) finally unveiled a proposal to acquire ABN Amro NV (ABN 48.16 -1.13) for $91 bln while AstraZeneca PLC (AZN 56.00 -3.04) said it will buy MedImmune (MEDI 56.57 +8.56) for $15.6 bln. While both deals offered some reassurance that companies remain confident about the business climate, the fact that Friday's rally was fueled in part by anticipation Monday would bring another round of supportive M&A activity, and that both deals had been rumored for weeks, resulted in a muted response from investors. As a reminder, MedImmune said it was exploring strategic alternatives on April 12 while Barclays confirmed talks with ABN Amro over a potential blockbuster merger in March.The absence of leadership from Financials and Technology, which only trailed Telecom as today's worst performing sectors, were among the biggest reasons behind the market taking a breather. Better than expected earnings from both sectors last week were among the catalysts for the market's outperformance.Utilities was the only sector that finished in positive territory; but a 0.7% advance on one of the S&P 500's least influential sectors, and an area defensive in nature no less, merely underscored the hesitation on the part of buyers Monday. BTK +1.5% DJ30 -42.58 DJTA -0.9% DJUA +0.6% DOT -0.1% NASDAQ -2.72 NQ100 +0.2% R2K -0.2% SOX -0.7% SP400 +0.2% SP500 -3.42 XOI +0.1% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1766/1294/1.93 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1718/1551/1.38 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $65; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(4-20-07) Lunatic frauds on wall street rallying on short-covering, b**l s**t(including fake economic reports-they lie about everything), higher oil prices, and, ie.,ignoring reality regarding,erosion in consumer sentiment and one-year inflation expectations at the highest level in 8 months, rising food and energy costs, Systemic Recession The US is sliding into a long-term economic downturn, ChinaMerica America owned the 20th century, but it won't own the 21st, Dollar Down, Gold to Soar ...Real Estate Fiz...Recession 2007 ...Catch 22 � Lower interest rates in u.s. would decimate already worthless dollar REALITY COURTESY OF http://www.trendsresearch.com, negative inflation/economic data and continue their backward looking frenzied rally mode despite higher oil prices, unexpected jump in jobless claims, mortgage defaults highest in 37 years, retailers warning that April same-store sales will be weak, and the largest rise in import prices, Citigroup to cut 17000 jobs and earnings down 11% but stock rallies, national mortgage delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 2.87% in Q1, sentiment down, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the current rate of inflation remains too high, and on previous stellar employment report from government ...riiiiight!..., (what about the real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by acturial/accounting), as previously u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!..., despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A info, both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street�s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week�s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it�s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who�ve been printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they are (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3), remove words �additional firming� is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don�t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues,blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 153.35, S&P up 13.62, and NASDAQ up 21.04, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Los Angeles Times to Cut About 150 Jobs AP
McDonald's 1Q Profit Climbs 22 Percent
AP
World Bank Panel to Discuss Wolfowitz
AP
Ruling Puts Texas Vioxx Lawsuits on Hold
AP

Stocks charged out of the gate Friday as buyers rallied around another batch of better than expected quarterly results while sellers, expecting a worst-case scenario for the Q1 earnings season, ran for cover. For a third straight day the Dow closed in record territory, just 38 points away from hitting the 13,000 milestone, and finished the week up 2.8%. The S&P 500, whose five-day winning streak was snapped yesterday, turned in the next best performance among the majors, while the Nasdaq, fresh off its third consecutive decline, closed just below a new six-year high. All 10 economic sectors closed higher. With analysts ratcheting their Q1 EPS growth estimates down from almost 9% three months ago to just above 3%, and several influential names being eyed for more clarity about growth prospects, Caterpillar (CAT 71.82 +3.20) was among the day's biggest surprises after handily topping Wall Street expectations and raising its full-year outlook. Fellow Dow component Honeywell (HON 51.40 +2.34) turned in an even stronger performance, soaring 4.8% to a multi-year high after posting a 21% rise in Q1 earnings and then boosting its 2007 guidance as well. Providing additional support for the Industrials sector were transportation stocks, which completely ignored a 2.7% surge in oil prices. The Dow Jones Transportation Average, an economically-sensitive proxy, also closed at an all-time high. Taking full advantage of higher oil prices, though, was Energy. Crude for May delivery, which expired today, surged 2.7% to $ 63.52/bbl amid growing worries that tomorrow's presidential election in Nigeria, one of the biggest sources of U.S. oil imports, may result in possible shipment disruptions. As the day's best performing sector, its biggest boost came from a 3.0% surge in Exxon Mobil (XOM 79.76 +2.30), which reports earnings next week. Schlumberger (SLB 75.03 +0.71) posting a 63% jump in Q1 profits provided some sense that sector estimates are too low. Evidently, surging oil prices didn't completely upset consumers.  The Consumer Discretionary sector also provided some notable upside leadership. Auto Parts & Equipment (+5.6%) was the day's best performing S&P industry group as shareholders applauded a 38% jump in Q2 net profits on record sales from Johnson Controls (JCI 102.25 +4.65). Specialty Consulting Services (+3.2%) ranked second among the more than 130 S&P industry groups to post gains. H&R Block (HRB 22.56 +0.73), a suggested holding in our Active Portfolio, reached an agreement to sell its OptionOne subprime mortgage businesss.Further proof that first quarter profit growth won't be as dismal as so many on Wall Street initially feared was also witnessed in Technology, a sector pegged to be a significant contributor to earnings growth this year. Last night, Google (GOOG 482.91 +11.26) beat analysts' estimates for the 10th time in 11 tries since going public with a 69% surge in Q1 profits.  Its blowout quarter helped to restore some confidence among tech investors. Above average volume, due in part to options expiration, and the market closing near session highs, set a good tone entering the weekend. Given the slightly negative market breadth over the last three sessions, a decidedly bullish sentiment today was also encouraging. Advancers outpaced decliners on the NYSE by a 3-to-1 margin while those on the Nasdaq held a 2-to-1 edge. BTK +1.1% DJ30 12961.98 DJTA +0.8% DJUA +1.0% DOT +0.6% NASDAQ 2526.39 NQ100 +0.7% R2K +1.2% SOX +0.2% SP400 +1.0% SP500 1484.35 XOI +1.5% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 944/2076/2.17 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 729/2517/1.82 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $63; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(4-19-07) What a joke the lunatic frauds on wall street are by rallying on b**l s**t alone (including fake economic reports-they lie about everything), and, ie.,ignoring reality regarding,erosion in consumer sentiment and one-year inflation expectations at the highest level in 8 months, rising food and energy costs, Systemic Recession The US is sliding into a long-term economic downturn, ChinaMerica America owned the 20th century, but it won't own the 21st, Dollar Down, Gold to Soar ...Real Estate Fiz...Recession 2007 ...Catch 22 � Lower interest rates in u.s. would decimate already worthless dollar REALITY COURTESY OF http://www.trendsresearch.com, negative inflation/economic data and continue their backward looking frenzied rally mode despite higher oil prices, unexpected jump in jobless claims, mortgage defaults highest in 37 years, retailers warning that April same-store sales will be weak, and the largest rise in import prices, Citigroup to cut 17000 jobs and earnings down 11% but stock rallies, national mortgage delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 2.87% in Q1, sentiment down, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the current rate of inflation remains too high, and on previous stellar employment report from government ...riiiiight!..., (what about the real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by acturial/accounting), as previously u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!..., despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A info, both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street�s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week�s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it�s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who�ve been printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they are (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3), remove words �additional firming� is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don�t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues,blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 5, S&P down 2, and NASDAQ down 5, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Nacchio Convicted of 19 of 42 Charges
AP - Joe Nacchio, a former AT&T executive tapped to transform Qwest Communications into a major telecommunications competitor, was convicted Thursday of 19 of 42 insider trading charges after one-time top executives described his relentless drive to meet revenue projections without revealing financial risks.

Google 1Q Profit Rises 69 Percent AP
Stocks Flat on Economic, Earnings News
AP
Merrill Lynch 1Q Profit Jumps 31 Percent
AP
China Economy Surges 11 Percent
AP

With conviction on the part of buyers lagging all day and the Dow closing in record territory a day earlier, it wasn't surprising to see the blue-chip index take a bit of a breather Thursday. Be that as it may, the blue-chip index still eked out enough of a gain to extend its winning streak to six and close at another new all-time high. The major averages finished mixed for a third straight session as the tech-heavy Nasdaq languished again as investors remained cautious ahead of more key earnings reports.It is worth noting, though, that things could have been a lot worse, given the decidedly bearish tone coming into today's trading. Before the bell, the market had all of the makings for round two, albeit a much less dramatic sequel, of the Shanghai sell-off that triggered widespread panic on February 27. Higher than expected GDP and CPI reports from China initially renewed concerns about the Chinese government stepping up its efforts to curb speculative buying interest with a possible rate hike.The news roiled overseas markets as Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 1.7%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index plunged 2.3% and the once unknown Shanghai stock exchange tumbled 4.5%. Fortunately for the bulls, fears of a possible unwinding in the yen carry trade and resurgence in risk aversion, similar to that exhibited throughout the month of March in the aftermath of the Asian contagion, continued to subside as the day wore on. The European bourses as well as the major U.S. averages posted only fractional declines.From a leadership standpoint, six of 10 sectors posted losses. Energy (-1.0%) paced the way lower as a 2.1% drop in oil prices diminished the desire to own the likes of explorers and refiners. Crude for May delivery, which expires tomorrow, closed near $61.80/bbl following reports that Enbridge resumed shipments through a previously shutdown pipeline from Canada, last year's biggest source of U.S. crude-oil imports.Evidently lower oil prices did little to excite consumers as the Discretionary turned in the day's second worst performance. Everything from retailers to autos to cable companies were weak, but hotels were the sector's biggest disappointment after Marriott International (MAR 48.12 -3.75) issued disappointing RevPAR guidance.With Google's (GOOG 471.27 -4.74) earnings out after the close, and rival Yahoo! (YHOO 27.50 -0.80) shocking Wall Street yesterday with its disappointing Q1 report, Technology was in focus again Thursday. Yahoo! tacked a nearly 3% decline onto yesterday's 11% drubbing while eBay (EBAY 33.16 -1.29) also weighed heavily on the Internet Services group. A suggested holding in the Briefing.com Active Portfolio, eBay posted a 52% rise in Q1 profits and raised its full-year earnings and revenue forecasts; but with expectations running high ahead of its report last night, investors were tempted to lock in some of its 15% year-to-date advance. One bright spot for tech was Intel (INTC 21.81 +0.46), another suggested holding which surged 2.2% after being upgraded. Intel was an integral reason the Dow hit a new record again and why the tech sector's decline was minimal.On the positive side of things, Health Care was the day's standout, with the bulk of sector support coming from Biotech (+3.4%), today's best performing S&P industry group. Amgen (AMGN 62.32 +2.31) staged a relief rally following upbeat results from a study regarding its blockbuster Aranesp drug while investors also applauded an upbeat Q1 report from Gilead Sciences (GILD 81.67 +3.24). BTK +0.7% DJ30 +4.79 DJTA +0.7% DJUA -0.4% DOT -0.6% NASDAQ -5.15 R2K -0.8% SOX +0.5% SP400 -0.4% SP500 -1.77 XOI -0.8% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1988/1023/2.04 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2122/1117/1.48 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended qui3e badly; oil prices now above $61; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(4-18-07) New Moon and what a joke the lunatic frauds on wall street are by rallying on b**l s**t alone, and, ie.,ignoring reality regarding,erosion in consumer sentiment and one-year inflation expectations at the highest level in 8 months, rising food and energy costs, Systemic Recession The US is sliding into a long-term economic downturn, ChinaMerica America owned the 20th century, but it won't own the 21st, Dollar Down, Gold to Soar ...Real Estate Fiz...Recession 2007 ...Catch 22 � Lower interest rates in u.s. would decimate already worthless dollar REALITY COURTESY OF http://www.trendsresearch.com, negative inflation/economic data and continue their backward looking frenzied rally mode despite higher oil prices, unexpected jump in jobless claims, mortgage defaults highest in 37 years, retailers warning that April same-store sales will be weak, and the largest rise in import prices, Citigroup to cut 17000 jobs and earnings down 11% but stock rallies, national mortgage delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 2.87% in Q1, sentiment down, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the current rate of inflation remains too high, and on previous stellar employment report from government ...riiiiight!..., (what about the real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by acturial/accounting), as previously u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!..., despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A info, both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street�s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week�s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it�s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who�ve been printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they are (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3), remove words �additional firming� is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don�t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues,blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 30, S&P up 1, and NASDAQ down 6, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Dow Closes Above 12,800 for First Time
AP - The Dow Jones industrial average closed above 12,800 for the first time Wednesday, signaling Wall Street's recovery from its steep decline in February as investors rewarded companies with strong earnings.

Kraft's 1Q Profits Drop 30 Percent AP
Clear Channel Accepts Higher $19.35B Bid
AP
EBay Boosts 1Q Profit by 52 Percent
AP
Gap Clothes to Grace Cover of Vogue
AP

�� The indices finished mixed for a second straight day and, in similar fashion to Tuesday's performance, the bulk of buying interest was dictated by gains in just a handful of blue chips. The Dow closed at an historic high, but all three major averages finished the day well off their best levels of the session. A day after a tame read on consumer inflation and solid earnings from two Dow components helped the index briefly eclipse its all-time closing high of 12,786.64, the absence of any potentially troubling economic data and two more of the Dow 30 announcing upbeat quarterly results, alongside some other upbeat blue-chip news, helped power the Dow to its best finish ever.As evidenced by the 1.0% rally in Financials, a nearly 4% surge in shares of Dow component JPMorgan Chase (JPM 52.07 +1.89) was the biggest story of the day. The financial services giant soared to a six-year high after handily beating analysts' expectations with record results, authorizing a $10 bln buyback, and raising its dividend for the first time in six years. Its report helped renew enthusiasm throughout the recently beaten-down and heavily-weighted Financials sector.The only other influential sector attracting buyers, and telling the rest of the story behind today's move into uncharted territory for the Dow, was Industrials. Boeing (BA 93.88 +3.43) surged almost 4% to an all-time high following reports it is the sole bidder for a $2.5 bln South Korean fighter contract. Fellow Dow component Caterpillar (CAT 69.48 +1.82) climbed almost 3% on the back of an analyst upgrade two days before it reports earnings. Boeing's gain alone accounted for almost the entire gain on the Dow.Technology was also in focus after Dow component Intel (INTC 21.37 +0.39) kicked things off last night with its Q1 report. Intel, a suggested holding in the Briefing.com Active Portfolio, posted an in-line report and revenues were a bit light; but management raising gross margin guidance for the full year helped restore investor confidence in its leadership position. Also helping Semiconductors turn in one of the day's best performances was Linear Technology (LLTC 36.05 +3.93), which soared 12% as shareholders applauded its $3 bln stock buyback program.However, given such high expectations being priced into Yahoo! (YHOO 28.31 -3.78) shares of late, first quarter results falling short of forecasts on both the top and bottom lines revived worries that estimates for the tech sector are still overly optimistic. IBM (IBM 94.82 -2.30) was another tech blemish after an in-line report.  Its CFO saying the U.S. market showed signs of weakness prompted multiple analyst downgrades. The 2.4% decline on the Dow's highest priced stock offset what was shaping up to be an even stronger record performance for the price-weighted index. DJ30 +30.80 NASDAQ -6.45 SP500 +1.02 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1797/1228/2.10 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1850/1414/1.58 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $63; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(4-17-07) New Moon and the lunatic frauds on wall street do what you expect lunatics to do, ie.,ignore reality regarding,erosion in consumer sentiment and one-year inflation expectations at the highest level in 8 months, rising food and energy costs, Systemic Recession The US is sliding into a long-term economic downturn, ChinaMerica America owned the 20th century, but it won't own the 21st, Dollar Down, Gold to Soar ...Real Estate Fiz...Recession 2007 ...Catch 22 � Lower interest rates in u.s. would decimate already worthless dollar REALITY COURTESY OF http://www.trendsresearch.com, negative inflation/economic data and continue their backward looking frenzied rally mode despite higher oil prices, unexpected jump in jobless claims, mortgage defaults highest in 37 years, retailers warning that April same-store sales will be weak, and the largest rise in import prices, Citigroup to cut 17000 jobs and earnings down 11% but stock rallies, national mortgage delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 2.87% in Q1, sentiment down, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the current rate of inflation remains too high, and on previous stellar employment report from government ...riiiiight!..., (what about the real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by acturial/accounting), as previously u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!..., despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A info, both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street�s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week�s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it�s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who�ve been printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they are (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3), remove words �additional firming� is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don�t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues,blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 53, S&P up 3, and NASDAQ down 1, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Yahoo Disappointing 1Q Drags Down Stock
AP - Investors were falling in love with Yahoo Inc. again until the Internet icon's disheartening first-quarter results ruined the mood.

Intel 1Q Profit Surges 19 Percent AP
Late Filers Swamp TurboTax E-File System
AP
IBM Meets 1Q Earnings Forecast
AP
Seagate's 3rd-Quarter Profit Decline
AP

�� The major averages closed in split fashion Tuesday as investors weighed another round of upbeat earnings reports and tame inflation data against the temptation to lock in some of the market's recent gains. As a reminder, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq have climbed roughly 3.6% on average during the month of April amid heightened expectations Wall Street analysts may have revised their earnings estimates too low.Meanwhile, with policy makers recently emphasizing their inflation concerns, and the monthly CPI report's ability to influence monetary decision making, early indications were signaling a lower start for stocks. The market's sizable gains a day earlier and the Dow less than 60 points away from its all-time closing high also contributed to the lack of buying interest at the onset of trading.Core consumer prices rising a lower than expected 0.1%, though, helped to ease renewed fears about pricing pressures and provided a floor of buying support. In the end, however, the soft number, coupled with rising energy costs that left total CPI with its biggest increase (+0.6%) since last April, did not exactly signal that inflation is back under control. The recent uptrend in energy prices threatens to raise overall inflation pressures and keep the core trends above Fed targets.Further proof of stabilization in housing, following unexpected 0.8% increases in monthly starts and permits, was also encouraging; but the data merely prompted bargain-hunting interest in Homebuilding (+2.8%), this year's worst performing S&P industry group (-17.9%).The bigger story Tuesday was earnings. Coca-Cola (KO 51.62 +1.35) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 64.60 +1.58), which topped Wall Street expectations, were the biggest reasons behind the Dow briefly eclipsing its all-time closing high of 12,786.64 (Feb.20). While both blue chips acted as notable sources of support for their respective Consumer Staples and Health Care sectors, the defensive nature of both stocks suggested there was less conviction in today's follow-through buying efforts. Coca-Cola and J&J accounted for nearly half of the Dow's 52-point advance.Technology was also in focus as investors placed their bets on solid earnings reports from tech bellwethers like IBM (IBM 97.16 +0.98) and Intel (INTC 20.97 +0.28). Average gains of more than 1.0% from each Dow component, which were scheduled to report after the bell, accounted for another 10 Dow points. DJ30 +52.58 NASDAQ -1.38 SP500 +3.01 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1751/1278/1.92 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1685/1589/1.47 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $63; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(4-16-07) The lunatic frauds on wall street prove they are a joke,ignore reality regarding, erosion in consumer sentiment and one-year inflation expectations at the highest level in 8 months, rising food and energy costs, Systemic Recession The US is sliding into a long-term economic downturn, ChinaMerica America owned the 20th century, but it won't own the 21st, Dollar Down, Gold to Soar ...Real Estate Fiz...Recession 2007 ...Catch 22 � Lower interest rates in u.s. would decimate already worthless dollar REALITY COURTESY OF http://www.trendsresearch.com, negative inflation/economic data and continue their backward looking frenzied rally mode despite higher oil prices, unexpected jump in jobless claims, mortgage defaults highest in 37 years, retailers warning that April same-store sales will be weak, and the largest rise in import prices, Citigroup to cut 17000 jobs and earnings down 11% but stock rallies, national mortgage delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 2.87% in Q1, sentiment down, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the current rate of inflation remains too high, and on previous stellar employment report from government ...riiiiight!..., (what about the real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by acturial/accounting), as previously u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!..., despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A info, both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street�s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week�s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it�s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who�ve been printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they are (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3), remove words �additional firming� is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don�t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues,blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 108.33, S&P up 15.62, and NASDAQ up 26.39, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Restructuring Cuts Citi's 1Q Profit
AP - Despite strong growth in revenue, profit at Citigroup Inc. fell 11 percent in the first quarter as the nation's largest financial institution took a charge to cover a massive restructuring aimed at improving earnings.

Stocks Rise Amid Profit, Economic News AP
Cuomo Settles With Student Lender
AP
$2.8 Million Verdict Against Allstate
AP
ConocoPhillips, Tyson Team on Project
AP

�� Stocks rallied Monday as investors applauded a batch of better-than-expected earnings, some M&A activity and encouraging economic data. With the S&P 500 finishing Friday above its closing price the day before the global sell-off on February 27, broad-based gains helped the Dow and Nasdaq follow suit. All 10 economic sectors closed in positive territory.With the market exhibiting a fair amount of optimism heading into what is still widely expected to be an uninspiring first quarter of earnings, the majority of reports this morning checking in better than expected offered some validation behind recent market gains. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq had climbed 2.4% on average over the last two weeks amid heightened expectations the first quarter won't be as bad as initially thought. Today's gains now leave all three indices up about 3.4% on average during the month of April alone.Citigroup (C 52.86 +1.26) beating Wall Street expectations topped today's list of earnings surprises, especially with so much nervousness surrounding financial stocks. The sector remains this year's biggest disappointment amid concerns stemming from a liquidity crisis and global recession to fears about subprime lending woes spilling over into the broader economy; but today's 2.1% advance helped erase most of its 2.9% year-to-date decline. That point aside, Briefing.com recently lowered its rating for the sector to Underweight.Fremont General (FMT 8.85 +1.80) finding a buyer for $2.9 bln in subprime loans provided additional relief, especially in the struggling Thrifts & Mortgage (+3.2%) space. Diversified Banks (+2.0%) was another bright spot after Wachovia (WB 55.14 +1.14) posted a 33% rise in Q1 profits and reminded shareholders it has a "very low amount" of subprime mortgages.More evidence of ample liquidity to help support the stock market also provided some reassurance about current valuations and made beaten-down Investment Banks & Brokers more attractive. SLM Corp (SLM 55.37 +8.61) confirmed it will be taken private for roughly $25 bln, a proposal that was better than the rumored $20 bln price tag that vaulted SLM shares 15% on Friday. Today's 18.4% surge in SLM shares earmarked Consumer Finance (+4.6%) as the day's second best performing S&P industry group.More M&A news, which is typical for a Monday morning, came from Google (GOOG 474.27 +7.98). The stock's 1.7% surge following reports that it will pay $3.1 bln for DoubleClick provided a big boost to the Tech sector. Health Care was another influential sector gaining ground Monday. Drug stocks got a lift after Eli Lilly (LLY 58.37 +1.49) followed up its solid Q1 earnings report by raising its full-year outlook. Boston Scientific (BSX 15.97 +0.96) soaring 6.4% after saying the FDA has lifted restrictions on its St. Paul plant provided additional sector support.On the economic front, March retail sales and sales, ex-autos, checked in better than expected while an upward revision to February sales provided further proof that consumer spending remains on track. With the market increasingly concerned about the pace of economic growth, especially in manufacturing, the April NY Empire State Index rebounding from its lowest level since May 2005 was also noteworthy. BTK +0.7% DJ30 +108.33 DJTA +1.4% DJUA +0.5% DOT +1.1% NASDAQ +26.39 NQ100 +0.9% R2K +1.4% SOX +0.3% SP400 +1.1% SP500 +15.62 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 875/2180/1.75 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 915/2353/1.42 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $63; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(4-13-07) The lunatic frauds on wall street ignore reality regarding, erosion in consumer sentiment and one-year inflation expectations at the highest level in 8 months, rising food and energy costs, Systemic Recession The US is sliding into a long-term economic downturn, ChinaMerica America owned the 20th century, but it won't own the 21st, Dollar Down, Gold to Soar ...Real Estate Fiz...Recession 2007 ...Catch 22 � Lower interest rates in u.s. would decimate already worthless dollar REALITY COURTESY OF http://www.trendsresearch.com, negative inflation/economic data and continue their backward looking frenzied rally mode despite higher oil prices, unexpected jump in jobless claims, mortgage defaults highest in 37 years, retailers warning that April same-store sales will be weak, and the largest rise in import prices, Citigroup to cut 17000 jobs, national mortgage delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 2.87% in Q1, sentiment down, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the current rate of inflation remains too high, and on previous stellar employment report from government ...riiiiight!..., (what about the real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by acturial/accounting), as previously u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!..., despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A info, both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street�s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week�s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it�s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who�ve been printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they are (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3), remove words �additional firming� is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don�t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues,blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 59.17, S&P up 5.05, and NASDAQ up 11.62, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Google to Acquire DoubleClick for $3.1B
AP - Seeking to expand its already well-honed ability to sell targeted Internet advertisements, online search leader Google Inc. said it has agreed to pay $3.1 billion in cash to acquire ad-management technology company DoubleClick Inc.

P&G Wants Judge to Uphold Jury Award AP
Undocumented Meatpackers Fear Raids
AP
Wal-Mart Board Urged to Probe Spy Claims
AP
FCC Unveils Settlement With Radio Firms
AP

�� The major averages closed modestly higher Friday as some upbeat corporate news eventually helped investors look past mixed economic data.With the Fed recently increasing its attention on raw material prices as the chief influence on inflation, the market's early focus was on the March PPI report. Core PPI in March checking in unchanged was initially comforting; but the soft number, coupled with rising food and energy costs, did not exactly signal that inflation is back under control.Another report showing erosion in consumer sentiment and that one-year inflation expectations are at the highest level in eight months also sidelined the bulls in early action.Be that as it may, investors gradually embraced leadership in two of the S&P 500's most heavily-weighted sectors -- Financials and Health Care. The latter got a huge boost from Merck (MRK 50.20 +3.84), which opened up 6% at a three-year high after upside Q1 and FY07 EPS guidance prompted an upgrade from Goldman Sachs. By far today's best performing Dow component (+8.3%), Merck accounted for more than half of the Dow's 59-point advance.Financials garnered some early interest following reports that SLM Corp. (SLM 46.76 +6.01) could be taken private in a deal worth $30 bln, including debt. ABN AMRO (ABN 48.28 +2.49) confirming receipt of a joint letter from three potential acquirers late in the day gave the sector an added lift.It wasn't until news out of Cisco Systems (CSCO 26.65 +0.68) late in the session, though, that helped the Nasdaq finally break out of its intraday funk. After trading down as much as 1.2% in early trading, Cisco spiked more than 3.0% after its Chief Development Officer said the company is at the "high end" of sales forecasts and is in the "early phases" of an upgrade cycle.The news gave the market a late-day lift, especially among tech companies reeling from a handful of warnings that have placed the sector's growth prospects under scrutiny of late. Technology bounced 1.1% from its intraday lows. DJ30 +59.17 NASDAQ +11.62 SP500 +5.05 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1119/1902/1.86 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1306/1940/1.32 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $63; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(4-12-07) The lunatic frauds on wall street ignore reality regarding negative inflation/economic data and continue their backward looking frenzied rally mode despite higher oil prices, unexpected jump in jobless claims, mortgage defaults highest in 37 years, retailers warning that April same-store sales will be weak, and the largest rise in import prices, Citigroup to cut 17000 jobs, national mortgage delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 2.87% in Q1, sentiment down, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the current rate of inflation remains too high, and on previous stellar employment report from government ...riiiiight!..., (what about the real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by acturial/accounting), as previously u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!..., despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A info, both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street�s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week�s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it�s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who�ve been printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they are (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3), remove words �additional firming� is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don�t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues,blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 68.34, S&P up 8.93, and NASDAQ up 21.01, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Morgan Stanley Buys 13 Hotels for $2.4B
AP - Morgan Stanley is buying 13 hotels from Japanese carrier All Nippon Airways Co. for 281 billion yen , the airline said Friday, in a transaction that would roughly double the U.S. investment bank's portfolio of hotels in Japan.

Outlook for Consumer Spending Turns Hazy AP
Dow Fires 2 Over Acquisition Talks
AP
Chavez: Troops to Escort Oil Takeovers
AP
Prof Charged in Investment Fraud Case
AP

�� After a shaky start, the belief that Wednesday's pullback was overdone sidelined early follow-through selling interest and prompted renewed buying activity that left all three major averages at session highs with noticeable gains.Before the bell, investors questioned whether the change in views towards the interest-rate outlook following yesterday's release of the FOMC minutes had caused a fundamental shift in underlying sentiment. Throw in an unexpected jump in jobless claims, possibly signaling a softening in the labor market, a handful of retailers warning that April same-store sales will be weak, and the largest rise in import prices since May, and the market had all the makings of another down day.However, the market eventually gave way to buyers looking for places to park investment dollars. As evidenced by Railroads turning in the day's best performance, billionaire investor Warren Buffett's recent endorsement of the group seemed as good as any place to start. In fact, the Dow Jones Transportation Average's resilience in the face of oil prices soaring 3%, due largely to another railroad rally, was among the day's most surprising stories and gave Industrials a noticeable boost.The Health Care sector was also up 1.0% and provided some notable support in the absence of any leadership from the struggling Financials sector. Biotech got a boost as reports that MedImmune (MEDI 43.63 +5.79) was seeking a potential buyer fueled speculation that its peers may also be takeover candidates.Manor Care (HCR 62.81 +1.13), building on yesterday's buyout-induced 10.6% surge, provided additional sector support. The sector's defensive characteristics, which are largely why we reiterated an Overweight rating on Health Care in late January, also contributed to its outperformance. Dow component Pfizer (PFE 26.46 +0.42), which also ranks among the ten most influential S&P 500 constituents, surged 1.6%. Fortunately for the bulls, oil's late-day rally finally woke up an Energy sector that was initially ignoring today's early gains in crude. The May contract spiked to session highs near $64/bbl just before the NYMEX closed after Valero Energy (VLO 68.71 1.33) said its fire-damaged McKee facility will not reach full capacity of 170,000 barrels per day this year. The energy sector's 1.4% advance eventually provided enough leadership for the stock market to help offset the early inflationary concerns sparked by import prices surging 1.7% to 10-month highs. BTK +2.5% DJ30 +68.34 DJTA +1.7% NASDAQ +21.01 NQ100 +0.9% R2K +0.8% SP400 +0.7% SP500 +8.93 XOI +1.6% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1098/1927/1.90 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1108/2177/1.38 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $63; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(4-11-07) Reality confronts lunatic frauds on wall street regarding negative inflation/economic data for modest losses relative to reality, Citigroup to cut 17000 jobs, national mortgage delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 2.87% in Q1, sentiment down, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the current rate of inflation remains too high, and on previous stellar employment report from government ...riiiiight!..., (what about the real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by acturial/accounting), as previously u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!..., despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A info, both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street�s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week�s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it�s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who�ve been printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they are (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3), remove words �additional firming� is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don�t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues,blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average down 89.23, S&P down 9.52, and NASDAQ down 18.30, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Citigroup to Eliminate 17,000 Jobs
AP - Under pressure from investors to contain burgeoning costs, Citigroup Inc., the nation's largest financial institution, announced that it will eliminate about 17,000 jobs, shift 9,500 positions to "lower cost locations" and consolidate some corporate operations.

Forbes: Slim Is World's 2nd Richest Man AP
Survey: Academic Salaries on the Rise
AP
Toyota Names 1st Non-Japanese to Board
AP
Oil Prices Steady in Asian Trading
AP

�� With the market pricing in a possible rate cut over the last several months, the FOMC minutes providing no indicationn that a rate cut will happen anytime soon exacerbated early consolidation efforts and snapped the Dow's eight-session winning streak.According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, April has been the best month for the Dow since 1950, turning in an average return of 1.8%. However, with the blue-chip index already surging 1.7% during the first week of April alone and not closing in negative territory since March 28, it wasn't surprising to see some early profit-taking activity.However, a market having placed way too much emphasis on the belief that the Fed was moving away from a tightening bias to a neutral view, as reflected in the broad-based rally following the surprise removal of "additional firming" in the Fed's latest policy directive, got a wake-up call late Wednesday. While most of the nine pages of minutes brought few surprises, the FOMC minutes from the March 20-21 FOMC meeting stating that "further policy firming might prove necessary to foster lower inflation," even if offset by economic concerns, showed that there is no leaning towards an easing anytime soon. That reality check further underscored why we remain cautious about the near-term outlook.It is worth noting, though, that stocks were succumbing to selling efforts before the 2:00 ET release of the minutes.Contributing to the negative disposition that stalled momentum from the onset of trading was the absence of any notable earnings reports other than the one from Alcoa (AA 35.08 +0.18), which officially kicked off the first quarter earnings season Tuesday night. Unfortunately for the bulls, Alcoa's record net income merely rising 9.0% underscored the strong likelihood that 14 straight quarters of double-digit profit growth for the S&P 500 will come to an end.With the market increasingly sensitive to weak data, especially from the housing sector, the National Association of Realtors saying it sees median existing home prices down 0.7% in 2007, the first decline in nearly 40 years, also weighed on sentiment. That news, coupled with KB Home's (KBH 41.50 -0.46) CEO saying the housing market will get worse before it gets better, gave investors another reason to keep selling this year's worst performing S&P industry group. Homebuilding is now down 21.7% this year.All 10 economic sectors closed lower, paced by a 1.1% decline in Telecom, but were more influentially impacted by a 0.8% pullback in the rate-sensitive and much more heavily-weighted Financials sector. Everything from banks to brokers to REITs extended their year-to-date declines. Citigroup (C 51.83 -0.57), yesterday's best performing component (+1.6%), came under added pressure as shareholders questioned whether today's announced restructuring, which will include 17,000 job cuts, will be enough since cost-cutting can only take the investment bank so far. BTK -0.4% DJ30 -89.23 DJTA -0.5% DJUA -0.4% DOT -1.1% NASDAQ -18.30 NQ100 -1.0% R2K -0.8% SOX -1.1% SP400 -0.6% SP500 -9.52 XOI -0.2% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1952/1056/1.98 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2242/1046/1.48 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $61; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(4-10-07) The crazed lunatic frauds on wall street still in frenzied rally mode despite national mortgage delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 2.87% in Q1, sentiment down, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the current rate of inflation remains too high, and on previous stellar employment report from government ...riiiiight!..., (what about the real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by acturial/accounting), as previously u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!..., despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A info, both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street�s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week�s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it�s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who�ve been printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they are (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3), remove words �additional firming� is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don�t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues,blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 4, S&P up 3, and NASDAQ up 8, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Alcoa's 1st-Quarter Profit Rises 9 Pct.
AP - Record aerospace industry demand and higher metal prices helped lift Alcoa Inc.'s first-quarter profits nearly 9 percent, as the aluminum maker kicked off earnings season and gave Wall Street its first taste of how companies have fared so far this year.

DOD Proposal Limits High-Interest Loans AP
Staples CEO Gets About $10M Compensation
AP
Report: Nasdaq May Buy Philly Exchange
AP
Cuomo: School Loan Corruption Widespread
AP

�� Stocks closed higher Tuesday, but market gains were modest in scope given a lack of corporate news, no scheduled economic data, and a sense of caution that typically precedes the start of earnings season, especially one in which 14 consecutive quarters of double-digit profit growth for the S&P 500 are likely to come to an end. Alcoa (AA 34.90 +0.03), the best performing Dow component last quarter (+13.6%), was scheduled to officially kick things off with its Q1 report after the closing bell.Speaking of the blue-chip index, it finished to the upside for an eighth consecutive day, recording its longest winning streak since March 2003. However, had it not been for respective gains of 1.6% and 1.0% in Citigroup (C 52.41 +0.83) and Exxon Mobil (XOM 77.59 +0.79), which rank as two of the most heavily-weighted constituents in the S&P 500, the Dow's streak would have been snapped.Among the nine sectors finishing in positive territory, Energy was the only one posting a respectable gain; but its 1.4% advance was tied primarily to a rebound in oil prices, which is bearish for equities. Crude for May delivery rose 0.6% to $61.89/bbl as yesterday's sharp 4.3% sell-off and the possibility that weekly gasoline inventories fell for a ninth week renewed buying interest. The remaining eight sectors trading higher averaged gains of only 0.15%; meanwhile, below average volume on the NYSE showed there was little conviction on the part of today's participants.Technology was in focus following upgrades on a few notable sector components (e.g. ORCL +1.5%, AMAT +4.0%, and ADSK +3.8%), as well as upbeat analyst commentary on Intel (INTC 20.69 +0.59). However, Seagate Technology (STX 21.90 -1.56) warning that Q3 revenue will miss forecasts left investors questioning the sector's growth prospects. Tech is expected to be one of the S&P 500's biggest earnings drivers this year.A market increasingly sensitive to weak data, especially from the housing sector, viewed a 37% drop in Q2 net sales orders at D.R. Horton (DHI 21.65 -0.39) as a reason to keep selling homebuilders (-1.2%), this year's worst performing S&P industry group (-20.1%). A report from Equifax/Moody's that showed the national mortgage delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 2.87% in Q1 also took some steam out the Consumer Discretionary sector's recent recovery efforts.Separately, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the current rate of inflation remains too high and that policy makers will need to raise interest rates if price gains don't moderate also stalled momentum following last week's rally. BTK -0.7% DJ30 +4.71 DJTA -0.3% DJUA +0.3% DOT +0.4% NASDAQ +8.43 NQ100 +0.5% R2K +0.4% SOX 0.8% SP400 +0.3% SP500 +3.78 XOI +0.9% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1358/1677/1.75 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1265/2014/1.20 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $61; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(4-09-07) The crazed lunatic frauds on wall street still in frenzied rally mode on stellar employment report from government (what about the real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by actuarial/accounting standards) ...riiiiight!..., as previously u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!..., despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A info, both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street�s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week�s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it�s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who�ve been printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they are (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3), remove words �additional firming� is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don�t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues,blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 8, S&P up 0, and NASDAQ down 2, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Martha Stewart Relaunching Web Site
AP - Domesticity diva Martha Stewart aims to parlay her authoritative voice on everything about lifestyle to the millions of women who surf the Internet with the relaunch of her namesake Web site.

Wall Street Headed Toward Flat Opening AP
U.S. Files Trade Cases Against China
AP
Closing Arguments Set in Nacchio Trial
AP
McDonalds, KFC Allow Unions in China
AP

Stocks Flat As Market Awaits 1Q Earnings - AP - Mon 6:50 pm ET
Wall Street ended an erratic session essentially flat Monday as investors grew anxious about upcoming first-quarter earnings and the possibility that interest rates won't be declining anytime soon.�� Business Highlights - AP - Mon 6:22 pm ET
The Bush administration announced new trade cases against China on Monday over copyright piracy and restrictions on the sale of American movies, music and books.
Stocks flat, oil drops and bonds firm - Reuters - Mon 5:02 pm ET
Stocks struggled to finish in a stalemate on Monday as worries about earnings tempered optimism over strong job growth, falling oil prices and talk of what could be the biggest leveraged buyout ever.

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $61; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(4-05-07) Full moon and the crazed lunatic frauds on wall street still in frenzied rally mode as u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!..., despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A info, both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street�s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week�s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it�s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who�ve been printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they are (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3), remove words �additional firming� is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don�t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues,blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 30, S&P up 4, and NASDAQ up 13, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Consumer Confidence Falls for 2nd Month
AP - Consumer confidence sank to a six-month low as higher gasoline prices, a housing slump and stock market turbulence made people fret more about the economy.

Kerkorian Makes $4.5B Offer for Chrysler AP
Japan Halts Imports From Kan. Meat Plant
AP
China Denies Role in U.S. Pet Deaths
AP
Wal-Mart Dog Treats Join Pet Food Recall
AP

Stocks clawed their way higher again Thursday, ending a holiday-shortened week on an upbeat note and extending the winning streak on the Dow and Nasdaq to six sessions. Among the few news items providing a floor of modest buying support were more upbeat analyst commentary, another pullback in oil prices, and some M&A action.With regard to the latter, billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp made an offer to purchase DaimlerChrysler's (DCX 84.88 +4.32) Chrysler Group for $4.5 bln in cash. The market was trading sideways in a narrow range until that news hit the wires around 1:00 ET. Not surprisingly, General Motors (GM 31.93 +0.90), which has been rumored as a possible bidder, surged to session highs as shareholders, questioning whether such a deal would be the right move for GM considering its own challenges, embraced the news.Aside from Autos gaining momentum, Homebuilders were another bright spot for the Consumer Discretionary sector after Ryland Group (RYL 42.10 +0.85) issued encouraging preliminary Q1 results.Health Care, though, was the day's best-performing sector. However, its 0.7% advance got a big lift from solid follow-through buying in biotech giant Amgen (AMGN 58.33 +1.65). Another sector attracting buyers due in part to its defensive characteristics was Consumer Staples. Distillers ranked as one of the day's best-performing S&P groups after Constellation Brands (STZ 21.50 +0.68) posted a 26% jump in Q4 profits, which plays into Briefing.com's Overweight rating on the sector.Technology was in focus after Micron Technology (MU 11.47 -0.60) posted a wider than expected Q2 loss. Goldman Sachs raising its estimates on Yahoo! (YHOO 31.95 +0.33) and Research in Motion (RIMM 145.65 +3.12), however, helped to provide some reassurance about the influential sector's growth prospects.The Energy sector's resilience in the face of falling oil prices for a third consecutive session was also noteworthy. Crude for May delivery closed down 0.7% and below $64/bbl, or about 6% below the six-month high set a week earlier.Nonetheless, with economic data playing an increasingly important role of late, and no report bigger than tomorrow's closely-watched jobs report given its influence on monetary policy, the market's inability to trade on the employment data until the market reopens Monday left investors cautiously optimistic heading into a three-day weekend. Overall market gains were modest at best and below average volume during another thinly-traded session offered evidence that there was little conviction on the part of buyers. BTK +1.5% DJ30 +30.15 DJTA +0.5% DJUA +0.4% DOT +0.4% NASDAQ +12.65 NQ100 +0.6% R2K +0.3% SOX 0.4% SP400 +0.3% SP500 +4.39 XOI +0.5% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1349/1664/1.49 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1209/2032/1.13 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $63; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(4-04-07) Full moon and the crazed lunatic frauds on wall street still in frenzied rally mode despite experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A info, both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street�s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week�s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it�s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who�ve been printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they are (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3), remove words �additional firming� is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don�t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues,blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 19, S&P up 1, and NASDAQ up 8, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Anschutz to Testify in Nacchio's Defense
AP - Billionaire Philip Anschutz, who hired Joe Nacchio to turn Qwest Communications into a major telecommunications company, has been chosen to kick off the defense's case in Nacchio's insider trading trial.

Company Uses Radar to Report on Traffic AP
World Bank: East Asia Faces New Risks
AP
Stocks Rise on Lackluster Economic Data
AP
Wal-Mart Defends Security Measures
AP

The major averages held onto modest gains Wednesday as a diplomatic resolution in the Middle East and some upbeat analyst commentary provided the bulls with just enough impetus to look past more evidence of slowing economic growth.With the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 1.0% on average a day earlier, it wasn't surprising to see investors begin to question such sizable gains amid a lack of overwhelming news behind such a surprise rally.However, with a nearly 6% risk premium put into oil futures last week amid growing geopolitical tensions, Iranian President Ahmadinejad announcing the release of 15 British sailors pushed oil prices to session lows and improved overall sentiment. Crude for May delivery was down as much as 1.7% and below $64/bbl; but it closed well off its lows since the geopolitical crisis involving Iran's capture of 15 Britons merely became less of a crisis as Iran continues to defy UN demands to halt its uranium enrichment program.As evidenced by the Nasdaq outpacing its blue-chip counterparts to the upside and logging its fifth consecutive gain, Technology was the day's best performer. Microsoft (MSFT 28.50 +0.63), which is also the Nasdaq's most influential constituent and third most heavily-weighted stock on the S&P 500, was the driving force behind all three indices.The day's best performing Dow component soared 2.3% after a Citigroup analyst raised his Q3 earnings and revenue estimates due to demand for Microsoft's Windows Vista. An analyst upgrade on Semiconductor Equipment (+1.7%), the day's seventh best performing S&P industry group, provided additional sector support.Health Care and Consumer Staples were other bright spots today due in part to their defensive characteristics; but their modest gains struggled to offset the lack of follow-through from the likes of Financials and Industrials. REITs were among the day's biggest disappointments but Industrials was home to the day's worst performing S&P industry group. Human Resources plunged 9.5% after Monster Worldwide (MNST 42.10 -6.41) cut its Q1 revenue guidance.Telecom and Utilities were the day's biggest laggards, but that's understandable since both are among this year's three best-performing sectors.Separately, ISM Services unexpectedly fell in March to 52.4 in March, the lowest reading since April 2003, while the employment component slumped to just above growth at 50.8. The bears also pointed to a smaller than expected rise in February factory orders, which further underscores the weak pace for 2007 manufacturing activity, as another reason to question whether or not yesterday's surprise rally was a bit overdone. BTK +0.6% DJ30 +19.75 DJTA -0.2% DJUA -0.4% DOT -0.2% NASDAQ +8.36 NQ100 +0.3% R2K -0.1% SOX +0.9% SP400 +0.1% SP500 +1.60 XOI +0.6% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1631/1356/1.68 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1528/1730/1.26 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $64; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(4-03-07) Blazing full moon and the crazed lunatic frauds on wall street in frenzied rally mode with u.s. auto sales down, February existing home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street�s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week�s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it�s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who�ve been printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they are (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3), remove words �additional firming� is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don�t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues,blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 128, S&P up 13, and NASDAQ up 28, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

DaimlerChrysler in Talks About Chrysler
AP - Confirming weeks of conjecture and rumor, DaimlerChrysler AG's chairman said Wednesday that it has been in talks with people about the sale of its struggling Chrysler unit.

Toyota's Sales Jump While GM, Ford Fall AP
Tax Outlets Cited for Bogus Returns
AP
Oil Prices Steady Above $64 a Barrel
AP
Buzz: Is Japan-US Trade Deal Possible?
AP

Stocks surged Tuesday as investors rallied around easing tensions in the Middle East and reassurance about stabilization in the housing market. The Dow turned positive for the year as its 1.0% gain erased a lackluster Q1 performance (-0.9%). Of the 147 S&P industry groups, only seven failed to participate in today's broad-based rally.After climbing to a six-month high above $68/bbl last week, oil prices slipping below $65/bbl early on, amid easing fears of supply disruptions attributed to a potentially diplomatic release of 15 British sailors, provided the initial catalyst for the bulls to make a case for owning equities today. Crude for May delivery briefly fell below $64/bbl (-3.0%) before closing down 2.1% near $64.60/bbl, yet the Energy sector continued to attract buyers.Further proof that the consumer is still holding up just fine in the face of so many obstacles provided an added boost to the stock market. With the market increasingly sensitive to weak economic data, especially from the housing sector, an unexpected rise of 0.7% in February pending home sales alleviated the worst of fears that a housing crisis will develop and spread into the broader economy. That, in turn, sparked a wave of bargain-hunting interest among underperforming Homebuilders, this year's biggest laggard.Also helping the Consumer Discretionary (+1.2%) pace the way among the 10 economic sectors posting gains and turn positive for the year were retailers, which became more attractive after a report showed chain store sales for the week ending March 31 rose 4.9%. That was the fastest pace in two months.Technology, which also turned positive for the year, was another source of notable support. IT Consulting Services, one of Monday's worst performing S&P industry groups, attracted enough bargain hunting interest to rank as today's best performer. Internet Software & Services turned in the session's second best performance as Google (GOOG 472.60 +14.07) soared 3.1% on plans to sell TV ads through a partnership with EchoStar Communications (DISH 44.04 +0.50) and after Goldman Sachs said shares may rise at least another 30% by the end of the year. eBay (EBAY 33.80 +0.80) surged 2.4% after Bear Stearns raised its Q1 profit and sales estimates.The return of leadership from the struggling Financials sector, though, renewed optimism among investors that a short-term bottom has been put in place. The sector was initially in focus following reports that Warburg Pincus plans to pay about $4 bln for a stake in the upcoming Marshall & Ilsley (MI 49.73 +3.87) spin-off of Metavante. However, the encouraging pending home sales report alleviating worries of the subprime mortgage meltdown adding to the huge inventory of properties already on the market was the main driver prompting buyers to jump back into beaten-down banks and brokerage names. BTK +1.2% DJ30 12510.30 DJTA +1.8% DOT +1.4% NASDAQ 2450.33 NQ100 +1.3% R2K +1.1% SOX +0.7% SP400 +0.7% SP500 1437.77 XOI +0.1% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1009/2029/1.92 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 867/2433/1.41 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $64; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(4-02-07) Manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, but there�s a blazing full moon and the lunatic frauds on wall street don�t disappoint citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street�s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week�s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it�s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who�ve been printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they are (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3), remove words �additional firming� is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don�t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues,blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 27, S&P up 3, and NASDAQ up 1, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Tribune OKs $8.2 Billion Offer From Zell
AP - Real estate mogul Sam Zell has bested his billionaire competitors, scoring media conglomerate Tribune Co. after a down-to-the-wire bidding war.

Oil Trading Still Volatile on Tensions AP
Major Home Lender Files for Bankruptcy
AP
First Data Accepts $27B Buyout
AP
Court Boosts Regulators on Power Plants
AP

With economic data playing an increasingly important role of late, investors were initially expecting an update on national manufacturing conditions to set a more definitive tone to Monday's action.However, after the ISM Index failed to offer a positive surprise following Friday's strong Chicago PMI data, participants were left looking for other catalysts to get buying efforts back on track after stocks recently limped into the end of Q1 battered and bruised. As a reminder, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended the quarter up just 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, but the Dow fell 0.9%, logging its worst quarterly performance since Q2 of 2005.A wave of M&A news, typical for a Monday morning, provided some comfort, suggesting stocks may have found a short-term bottom. Kohlberg Kravis Roberts offered to take First Data Corp. (FDC 32.45 +5.55) private for $29 bln, a 26% premium to Friday's close. Tribune Co. (TRB 32.80 +0.69) agreed to an $8.2 bln bid from Chicago real estate magnate Sam Zell, ending a six-month battle for the troubled publisher.In other related news, Altria Group (MO 68.21 +2.31) surged 3.5% as shareholders applauded its spin off of Kraft Foods (KFT 30.79 -0.87), positioning the Dow to keep pace with its long history of observing April as its best month of the year.Be that as it may, further evidence of trouble in the housing market, after M&T Bank (MTB 105.95 -9.88) lowered its Q1 guidance citing weakness in the secondary market for Alt-A loans, acted as an overhang all day and minimized overall market gains. M&T's warning left Regional Banks as one of the day's worst performing S&P industry groups (-2.0%) and placed added concern on the rest of the influential Financials sector, removing some notable leadership.Investors also contended with volatile oil prices and some commentary from St. Louis Fed President William Poole who said the Fed isn't likely to cut interest rates even as the economy slows. After climbing as high as $66.69/bbl (+1.2%) earlier, and helping the Energy sector continue to attract bargain hunters after a dismal start to 2007, crude for May delivery closed relatively flat on the day near $66/bbl.Utilities (+1.9%), though, was the day's best performer following analyst upgrades on PG & E Corp (PCG 49.37 +1.10) and TECO Energy (TE 17.61 +0.40). This year's best performing sector (+10.4%) continues to attract buyers due to its defensive characteristics as well, especially since economic growth remains sluggish and aggregate earnings forecasts for the S&P 500 continue to fall. DJ30 +27.95 DJUA +2.0% NASDAQ +0.62 NQ100 +0.1% R2K +0.3% SP400 +0.5% SP500 +3.69 XOI +1.0% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1520/1519/1.75 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1240/2042/1.42 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $65; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(3-30-07) Looming full moon and lunatic frauds on wall street rally into the close on stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street�s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week�s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it�s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who�ve been printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they are (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3), remove words �additional firming� is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don�t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues,blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 5.60, S&P down 1.67, and NASDAQ up 3.73, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Recall Expanded to Some Dry Cat Food
AP - The recall of pet foods contaminated with a chemical used to make plastics has grown to include both wet and dry products, even as investigators remain uncertain about why the substance would be fatal to dogs and cats.

Brazil Flights Suspended Amid Protest AP
Silva, Bush to Talk Trade and Ethanol
AP
Ethanol Demand Boosts Corn Planting
AP
Rice Industry Rejects Bioscience Plan
AP

The market had its share of trading triggers on Friday, the bulk of which were bearish in Briefing.com's estimation.Granted there was encouraging news from an economic growth standpoint, as personal income and spending were both reported to be up 0.6% in February, versus expectations for a 0.3% increase for each, while the Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index printed with a 61.7 reading versus the 49.5 consensus estimate.  A number above 50 reflects growth.Those items, in fact, proved to be early buying catalysts.  However, they weren't enough to sustain a strong bullish bias as there were some overriding factors that effectively canceled them out.The biggest factor in that respect was the core-PCE component of the Personal Income and Spending report, which is the Fed's favorite inflation gauge.  It was up 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) which pushed the annual rate up to 2.4% from 2.2% in January.  The Fed's target range for core-PCE is 1.0% to 2.0%.  To be sure, the combination of stronger than expected growth and higher than expected inflation not only squashed the idea that a Fed rate cut will happen soon, it also raised the potential that the Fed might raise rates again.Despite that negative implication and an admission from Dell (DELL 23.21, -0.18) that it found accounting errors and evidence of misconduct, stocks managed to hold their ground fairly well before a late-morning report that the Commerce Department approved duties on Chinese paper imports knocked them back in noticeable fashion.At their lows for the session, which were established just before noon eastern time, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P were down approximately 105, 15 and 14 points, respectively.The impetus for the broad-based sell-off was the supposition that the Commerce Department's action reflected a protectionist agenda.  Whether one agrees with that view or not, protectionism never plays out well on Wall Street given its detrimental effect on overall earnings prospects.Compounding the market's concerns mid-day were worries about the tension in the Persian Gulf between Iran and Western powers.  Those concerns pushed oil prices as high as $66.78 on an intra-day basis before they rolled over on a burgeoning hope that there will be a peaceful resolution over the weekend with respect to Iran's capture of 15 British sailors.The pullback in oil prices helped drive an afternoon recovery effort that saw each of the major indices make their way back into positive territory before ending the day mixed and little changed. On a related note, the latter characterization sums up the first quarter for the major indices.  While the Dow declined 0.87%, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 managed to eke out gains of 0.26% and 0.18%, respectively, for the first three months of the year.DJ30 +5.60 NASDAQ +3.76 SP500 -1.67 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1477/1558/1.88 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1540/1720/1.27 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $65; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(3-29-07) The lunatic frauds on wall street rally into the close on high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight!) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street�s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week�s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it�s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who�ve been printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they are (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3), remove words �additional firming� is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don�t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues,blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 48.39, S&P up 5.30, and NASDAQ up .78, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Dell Says Audit Found Accounting Errors
AP - In the most serious admission yet of the extent of Dell Inc.'s financial woes, the company's internal audit committee said it has found a number of accounting errors and evidence of misconduct in its months-long review of previous earnings statements.

Investors Laud Video Game Co.'s Upheaval AP
L.A. Billionaires Up Bid for Tribune Co.
AP
3 Firms Announce Petrochemical Venture
AP
PETA: FDA Should Expand Pet Food Recall
AP

 

Riding a shift in sentiment and better than expected economic data, the stock market started Thursday's session on an upbeat note.  Its bullish tune quickly changed, however, when the technology sector got hit with selling interest and oil prices spiked more than $2.00 to trade above $66 per barrel.When it seemed as if the market was destined to suffer another down day, things changed just as quickly in the final hour as a rush of buying interest pushed the major indices back into positive territory.  The Nasdaq for its part was down as much as 20 points at its low for the day.There wasn't any specific news catalyst for the late surge, but it was emblematic of a market that has had a manic demeanor ever since the global stock market sell-off on Feb. 27.At the end of the day, nine out of ten economic sectors had recorded a gain.  The lone holdout was technology (-0.12%) but its loss is better than it appears considering the sector was down close to 1.0% with less than two hours to go in the session.One of the "rallying" points for the market was the relative strength of the financial sector (+0.57%) which was a main beneficiary of the late-day buying interest.Energy (+0.91%) was another notable leader as it drafted off the surge in crude prices that followed reports of the death of a presidential candidate in Nigeria.  That news, combined with the growing tension in the Persian Gulf between Iran and the UK, added to the sense of uncertainty for traders with respect to supply lines and drove a speculative rally that saw crude futures for May delivery top out at $66.50 per barrel.Separately, it was reported that initial claims fell 10,000 to 308,000 in the latest week and that Q4 GDP was revised up to 2.5% from 2.2%.  Those indications were well-received (even though the GDP data is dated) as they reinforced the view that labor market conditions remain strong and that economic growth is moderating to a point that should help curb inflation.The late rally pushed the S&P 500 into positive territory for the year (+0.30%).  Friday marks the end of the first quarter for traders and the Personal income and Spending report, which contains the Fed's favored inflation indicator in the form of the core-PCE index, should help determine if the first quarter ends on a positive or negative note for the S&P.DJ30 +48.39 NASDAQ +0.78 SP500 +5.30 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1471/1515/1.95 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1253/2021/1.41 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $66; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(3-28-07) Stocks drop only modestly relative to reality, with lunatic frauds on wall street still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street�s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week�s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it�s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who�ve been printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they are (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3), remove words �additional firming� is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don�t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues,blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close off lows to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average down 96.93, S&P down 11.39, and NASDAQ down 20.33, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Ex-Qwest CEO Accused of Concealing $90M
AP - Former Qwest Communications chief executive Joe Nacchio, on trial for insider trading, attempted to hide $90 million in assets by transferring stock into accounts held solely by his wife, according to a prosecution motion made public Wednesday.

State Farm Settles Miss. Katrina Lawsuit AP
2 Ex-Enron Attorneys Charged With Fraud
AP
Upscale Restaurants Shun Bottled Water
AP
McDonald's, KFC Probed for Wage Abuses
AP

As far as today's participants were concerned, there wasn't much to get excited about when it came to buying stocks.  Their disinterest was understandable, too.  Oil prices pushed above $64 per barrel, the February durable orders report was relatively weak, and Fed Chairman Bernanke reminded listeners in his testimony on the economy before the Joint Economic Committee that Fed policy remains oriented toward inflation control.  The translation there is that participants shouldn't expect a rate cut from the Fed anytime soon.  That realization was effective at taking the wind out of the market's already wet sails and left the indices languishing in negative territory from bell to bell.At their worst levels of the day, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P were down approximately 139, 24 and 14 points, respectively.  They managed a decent recovery try in early-afternoon trading, but ultimately, that effort was met with resistance when the influential financial sector didn't show any lasting support.The weak showing by the financials (-1.22%) was linked to an assortment of concerns - subprime mortgage problems, housing market weakness, stock market volatility, the economic slowdown, and lackluster earnings growth - that clipped just about every industry group.The financial sector had plenty of company, though, as there wasn't a single economic sector that ended the day with a gain.Telecom services (-1.22%) joined with financials to lead the list of losers, but the technology (-0.92%), industrial (-0.99%), and consumer discretionary (-1.04%) sectors were among the more influential loss leaders.Underpinned by the spike in crude prices that was linked to concerns about the growing tension in the Persian Gulf over Iran's capture of 15 British sailors, energy (-0.20%) exhibited some relative strength along with some other traditionally defensive-oriented sectors such as consumer staples (-0.18%) and utilities (-0.09%).Although durable orders for February rose 2.5%, the focal point for economists was the 1.2% drop in nondefense capital goods orders, excluding transportation, which is a proxy for business investment.  That decline followed on the heels of a 7.4% decline for January.There weren't a lot of individual stock stories of note.  However, Beazer Homes (BZH 28.77, -2.64) is one company that couldn't escape the spotlight as it was reported by Business Week that the home builder is under investigation by several federal agencies for various fraud issues.  The company denied the allegations made in the report, but investors were inclined to believe the worst today.DJ30 -96.93 NASDAQ -20.33 SP500 -11.39 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2057/957/1.85 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2190/1103/1.40 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $64; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(3-27-07) Stocks drop only modestly relative to reality, with lunatic frauds on wall street relying on b**l s**t alone, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it�s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who�ve been printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they are (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3), remove words �additional firming� is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don�t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue, previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues,blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average down 72, S&P down 8, and NASDAQ down 18, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Wall Street Slides on Economy Worries
AP - Stocks stumbled Tuesday as investors grew wary when new data raised the possibility that the nation's weak housing market would seep into the broader economy and crimp consumer spending.

Oil Prices Rise Nearly $1, but Ease Back AP
Beazer Homes Shares Plunge 17 Percent
AP
Consumer Confidence Drops in March
AP
S&P: Home Prices Worst Since '94
AP

Since there is still a risk that a housing crisis will develop and spread to the broader economy, more proof today that it may take longer than anticipated for the housing correction to subside gave anxious investors an excuse to take some money off the table following last week's huge run-up.With the market already showing signs of fatigue and uncertainty over the previous three sessions, discouraging comments from Lennar Corp (LEN 44.53 -0.01) made a market increasingly sensitive to weak data even more nervous about the sustainability of recent gains.Lennar opened down nearly 4% after management withdrew its 2007 earnings guidance and said the typically strong spring selling season has not yet materialized.  Lennar also warned that "soft market conditions have been exacerbated by the well-publicized problems in the subprime lending market." It is worth noting that Lennar shares did close well off their highs, but much of that can be attributed to short covering since homebuilders are among the most heavily shorted industry groups in the S&P 500.Further underscoring the troubled state of the U.S. housing market was the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index, which showed that the price of homes in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell in January for the first time in at least six years. Albeit not a well-known survey, a fixation on over every piece of weak data exaggerated its importance.Even though monthly sentiment data don't correlate well with spending in any case, a larger than expected drop in consumer confidence also provided the bears with an excuse to send the bulls into hibernation for the time being. A growing understanding that the upcoming earnings season will be uninspiring, and that guidance may be extremely cautious, also acted as an overhang. The first quarter comes to a close on Friday and there's a strong likelihood that 14 consecutive quarters of double-digit profit growth for the S&P 500 will come to an end, which will restrain the near-term outlook for stocks.Of the eight sectors that closed lower, Materials was the day's biggest laggard. However, that wasn't all that surprising since it's also this year's best performing sector (+10.3%). DuPont (DD 49.81 -1.55), the day's worst performing Dow component, plunged 3.0% after Soleil cut its price target to $48. Newmont Mining (NEM 42.70 -1.03) tumbled 2.1% after being downgraded at HSBC Securities, earmarking Gold as today's biggest disappointment. The absence of leadership from Financials, however, was an even bigger drag on the day's action as more negative commentary about the subprime situation pushed mortgage lenders even lower on the year. The inability of the Health Care sector to benefit whatsoever from its defensive characteristics further underscored the market's difficulties attracting buyers. Managed Health was under pressure after a consumer group urged the Justice Department to block UnitedHealth Group's (UNH 55.95 -0.93) proposed purchase of Sierra Health Services (SIE 41.32 -0.12).Industrials was another weak spot for investors. Ingersoll Rand (IR 43.88 -1.45) was the sector's worst performer (-3.2%) after it was downgraded to Neutral at UBS; but it was the inability among transportation stocks to take advantage of an intraday pullback in oil prices that further echoed the lack of enthusiasm to own economically sensitive equities. BTK +0.4% DJ30 -71.78 DJTA -1.2% DJUA -0.2% DOT -0.2% NASDAQ -18.20 NQ100 -0.7% R2K -0.8% SOX -0.7% SP400 -0.5% SP500 -8.89 XOI +0.1% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2015/1019/1.74 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2269/998/1.30 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $62; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(3-26-07) Suckers bear market rally into the close by lunatic frauds on wall streetbased on b**l s**t alone, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it�s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who�ve been printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they are (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3), remove words �additional firming� is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don�t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues,blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average down 12, S&P up 1, and NASDAQ up 6, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Wal-Mart Increases Charitable Donations
AP - Wal-Mart Stores Inc. increased its U.S. charitable giving 10 percent last year to $272.9 million, the world's largest retailer said Tuesday, likely defending its position as the country's largest corporate donor of cash.

Crude Oil Pops Amid Lingering Tension AP
Stocks End Mixed After Trimming Losses
AP
Asia's Developing Economies Seen Slowing
AP
Sales of New Homes Fall Sharply
AP

With the S&P 500 fresh off its best weekly percentage gain (+3.5%) in four years and the Dow logging its fifth straight advance, it wasn't surprising to see the stock market take a bit of a breather Monday.As expected, today's housing report was the catalyst that set the tone for trading. To the dismay of the bulls, however, a surprise 3.9% drop in new home sales rocked a market that had been pricing in more signs of stabilization within the troubled housing market.At 10:00 ET, the Commerce Dept. showed that new home sales unexpectedly fell in February to the lowest level in nearly seven years. More troubling was the fact that inventories rose to the highest level in 16 years. Even though the data do not mean that the housing market is crashing and will pull the overall economy into recession, the broader perspective showed that housing is still in a correction and will remain a moderate drag on real GDP for several more quarters.Not surprising, Homebuilders (-1.8%), this year's biggest disappointment (-16.5%), ranked among today's worst performing S&P industry groups. However, new signs of weakness in the troubled housing sector exacerbated ongoing concerns of further impairment charges among mortgage lenders. That, in turn, left investors wondering if Financials is likely to see some downward earnings revisions over the next couple of weeks as the Q1 earnings season gets underway.Crude oil prices eclipsing $63/bbl for the first time this year amid potential supply disruptions after the U.N. tightened sanctions against Iran also weighed on sentiment throughout the session. Eventually the Energy sector took notice and helped to offset the adverse effect oil's uptick had on transportation stocks, especially Railroads (-2.0%). Industrials ranked second among the five sectors closing lower while a late-day tech rally provided enough of a boost to close the major averages mixed.Internet Software & Services was one of the day's top ten performers as eBay (EBAY 33.28 +1.45) got a big boost after Goldman Sachs raised their Q1 revenue and earnings estimates. Computer Hardware was another bright spot for tech as Dell (DELL 23.62 +0.79) surged 3.5% after Goldman upgraded the stock to a Buy while Apple (AAPL 95.90 +2.38) climbed 2.5% after a favorable mention in Barron's. BTK -0.2% DJ30 -11.94 DJTA -1.3% DJUA +0.7% DOT +0.4% NASDAQ +6.70 NQ100 +0.5% R2K -0.1% SOX -0.1% SP400 -0.1% SP500 +1.39 XOI +0.8% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1666/1397/1.66 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1730/1513/1.33 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $62; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(3-23-07) Suckers bear market rally by lunatic frauds on wall street continues based on b**l s**t alone, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who�ve been printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they are (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3), remove words �additional firming� is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don�t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues,blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 19.87, S&P up 1.56, and NASDAQ down 2.81, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Rat Poison Found in Tainted Pet Food
AP - Rat poison was found in pet food blamed for the deaths of at least 16 cats and dogs, but scientists said Friday they still don't know how it got there and predicted more animal deaths would be linked to it.

Publishing Magnate Robert Petersen Dies AP
Chavez: China to Become a Top Oil Client
AP
Judge Rules Against Vonage on Patents
AP
Existing Home Sales Rise 3.9 Percent
AP

For a second straight day, stocks looked rather lethargic as investors again lacked significant data needed to more convincingly support a week of sizable gains.For the week, the S&P 500 surged 3.5%, logging its best performance in four years, while the Nasdaq turned in a similar performance. However, their minimal gains Friday suggests the sustainability of such a rally, predicated largely on revised Fed language that didn't indicate any imminent rate cut no less, will come in question next week as the first quarter comes to a close and fund managers rebalance their portfolios.The Dow also closed slightly higher, posting just enough of an advance to turn positive for the year and extend its winning streak to five days; but that was largely due to a 5.5% surge in General Motors (GM 31.99 +1.67) which accounted for 13 of the Dow's 19 point gain. Shareholders applauded news that GM will pay stock bonuses to top executives for the first time since 2003 while autos were also in focus following reports that Magna International (MGA 75.42 +0.41) teamed up with a private equity partner to pay between $4.6 bln and $4.7 bln for Chrysler Group (DCX 82.36 +4.76).With the Fed recently saying in its policy directive that "the adjustment in the housing sector is ongoing," today's housing data at 10:00 ET was anticipated to set a more definitive tone. Initially, the bulls got what they were hoping for as existing home sales unexpectedly rising 3.9% in February to 6.69 mln, the fastest pace in three years, eased some of the overblown fears of a housing crisis leading to recession. However, the report also greatly reducing the rationale behind the Fed cutting rates anytime soon prompted a reversal in bonds that also took some steam out of equities.Oil prices climbing back above $62/bbl didn't help matters much either. Fortunately for the bulls, oil closed off its best levels yet offered enough of an incentive for the Energy sector to provide some notable leadership. Crude for May delivery surged amid renewed geopolitical tensions after the British Ministry of Defense confirmed that 15 Naval personnel were seized by Iran. Such worries contributed to a cautionary tone going into the weekend. DJ30 +19.87 NASDAQ �2.81 SP500 +1.56 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1431/1593/1.65 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1368/1853/1.28 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $62; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(3-22-07) Suckers bear market rally by lunatic frauds on wall street continuesbased on b**l s**t alone [fed heads, who�ve been printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they are (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3), remove words �additional firming� is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don�t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues,blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 13.62, S&P down .50, and NASDAQ down 4.18, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Calif. Farm Sues Taco Bell for Libel
AP - The Southern California farm that grew the green onions that were first linked to and then cleared in last year's E. coli outbreak has filed a libel lawsuit against Taco Bell Corp.

Key Stakeholder Rejects Bid for Qantas AP
Judge Blocks Class Action vs. State Farm
AP
Airports Push for Higher Passenger Fees
AP
Blackstone's Schwarzman Embraces IPO
AP

The market took a breather Thursday as investors, looking a bit fatigued, lacked the data needed to support the best three-day percentage gain on the S&P 500 since April 2003. It also wasn't surprising to see the Nasdaq, fresh off its largest percentage gain (+2.0%) since last October, as becoming ripe for a pullback. The Dow finished to the upside, but its 0.22% gain was nothing to write home about and still left it shy of turning positive for the year.Before the bulls could even find room to rationalize a rally fueled by a revised Fed policy statement that didn't indicate any imminent rate cut a day earlier, they were greeted with some negative news in a Tech sector whose earnings potential is already under the microscope. Last night, Motorola (MOT 17.52 -1.22) warned of a loss for this quarter and forecasted the company's first sales decline in four years. That news trumped a blowout quarter from Oracle (ORCL 18.51 +0.34) two days ago and questioned the sustainability of Technology's recent recovery.The absence of leadership in a Financials sector that has been a significant driver behind gains on all three major averages in five of the prior six sessions acted as an even larger overhang on the market. Thrifts & Mortgage (-1.3%), already one of this year's biggest disappointments (-7.0%) amid overblown concerns about subprime mortgage woes spilling over into the broader economy, was the sector's weakest link today. As if a Fed official saying that some borrowers are clearly experiencing "significant financial and personal challenges" wasn't enough Countrywide Financial (CFC 36.36 -0.59) followed by saying its foreclosures on 2006 subprime mortgages may top 2000's 9.9%, becoming the worst year yet.Also stalling follow-through momentum were soaring oil prices. Crude for May delivery surged 3.5% to $61.69/bbl, its biggest one-day gain in six weeks, amid growing concerns that gasoline supplies remain inadequate to meet upcoming summer driving demand. Fortunately for the bulls, the Energy sector tacking a 1.8% advance onto yesterday's strong 1.7% gain helped to offset some of the commodity's inflationary potential. Exxon Mobil (XOM 74.34 +1.11), the most heavily weighted constituent on the S&P 500, climbed 1.5% in response to oil's advance.Fellow Dow component Procter & Gamble (PG 63.85 +0.89), the blue-chip index's second best performer, gained 1.4% after being upgraded at Bear Stearns on valuation. P&G's gain, along with General Mills (GIS 58.32 +0.44) topping expectations and raising its full-year outlook, helped the Consumer Staples garner added attention for its defensive characteristics. BTK +0.37% DJ30 +13.62 DJTA -0.04% DJUA +0.11% DOT -0.16% NASDAQ -4.18 NQ100 -0.37% R2K +0.03% SOX -1.26% SP400 +0.23% SP500 -0.50 XOI +1.59% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1449/1578/1.89 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1633/1619/1.50 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $61; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(3-21-07) Suckers short-covering/bear market rally by lunatic frauds on wall streetbased on b**l s**t alone [fed heads, who�ve been printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they are (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3), remove words �additional firming� is excuse for ridiculous up move as dollar precipitously falls on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don�t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues,blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 159, S&P up 24, and NASDAQ up 47, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Fed Concerned About Growth and Inflation
AP - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues are still worried about inflation, even while hinting that an interest rate cut may be needed to help boost a weak economy.

Motorola Replaces CFO, Slashes Outlook AP
High Gas Prices Not Slowing RV Industry
AP
4 Former Livedoor Executives Convicted
AP
Hitachi to Close Mexico Plant, Shed Jobs
AP


Stocks rallied across the board Wednesday as investors embraced further evidence that the Fed continues to do a remarkably good job of engineering the so-called soft landing that has been priced into stocks since last July. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq soared 1.7 % and 2.0%, respectively, climbing back into positive territory for the year.Per usual, all eyes were fixed on the culmination of a two-day FOMC meeting and, as expected, policy makers left rates unchanged at 5.25% for a sixth straight time. What was not a foregone conclusion, though, was what the accompanying policy directive would imply about future rate decisions. Then, at 2:15 ET, the bulls got what they were hoping for -- some softening in the Fed's long-standing tightening bias. Even though the Fed's predominant concern remains the "risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected," which we believe does not amount to signs of a rate cut anytime soon, the surprise removal of "additional firming" in the directive was enough of a change to trigger a relief rally that vaulted every sector. Acknowledgement by the Fed of ongoing "adjustments" in the housing sector also sent the shorts running for cover, especially among beaten-down Homebuilders -- one of today's best performers (+3.5%). In fact, 144 of the 147 S&P industry groups posted gains.Not surprisingly, growing evidence of a more neutral stance lit a fire under an influential Financials sector that was already embracing record results from Morgan Stanley (MS 80.77 +4.66). The investment bank handily topped Wall Street expectations with a 70% surge in quarterly earnings. Management also saying its mortgage business was a "significant contributor" to its record Q1 results also helped silence overblown concerns about the subprime mortgage misfortunes potentially spilling over into the broader economy. DJ30 +159.42 NASDAQ +47.71 SP500 +24.10 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 796/2252/2.10 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 598/2693/1.48 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $59; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(3-20-07) New moon, home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don�t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, suckers short-covering/bear market rally despite builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues,blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 61.93, S&P up 8.88, and NASDAQ up 13.8, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Prosecutors: Former Qwest CEO a Cheater
AP - Former Qwest Communications CEO Joe Nacchio, a firm believer in the telephone company's future, was reluctant to sell shares in early 2001 and asked the board for an extension but was turned down, his attorney says.

Adobe Execs Raise Profit Guidance AP
Oracle's Fiscal 3Q Earnings Up 35 Pct.
AP
General Motors' OnStar to Work With CDC
AP
Stocks Up As Investors Await Fed Move
AP

Evidently buyers were still hungry to own stocks Tuesday as investors built on a broad-based rally a day earlier that was predicated in part on hopes that tomorrow's Fed statement will reflect a more accommodative policy stance.Investors also embraced an added sense of stability in overseas markets, as the Bank of Japan leaving rates unchanged at 0.5% eased concerns tied to the unwinding of the carry trade. Good overall housing data, more M&A news, and relief in the troubled subprime mortgage space also helped the bulls extend Monday's sizable gains.After plunging 14% to a 10-year low in January, housing starts rebounded in February with a 9% rise to a 1.525 mln annual rate. Building permits, a sign of future construction, fell for the 12th time in 13 months, which investors felt will help with the housing inventory glut. It is worth noting, though, that while the volatile data overall eased the worst of fears about a housing market crash, the lack of a clear sign of a bottom didn't exactly provide overwhelming conviction that the Fed's impending statement will reflect the more balanced policy stance investors began pricing into the market yesterday.As evidenced by the S&P 500 turning in a better performance than the Dow and Nasdaq, it's not surprising to see just how big of an impact more bargain-hunting interest throughout the beaten-down Financials sector had on the day's action. Another round of M&A activity helped the brokerage group build on yesterday's 1.6% advance. Citigroup (C 50.64 +0.58), whose Global Markets unit is funding the $8.2 bln buyout of Affiliated Computer Services (ACS 59.97 +8.68), rose 1.2%.Accredited Home Lenders (LEND 10.77 +1.82) receiving a commitment for a $200 mln term loan from Farallon Capital helped silence concerns about the subprime mortgage misfortunes potentially spilling over into the broader economy. Insurance companies got a lift after Bear Stearns upgraded the group on valuation.Of the other nine sectors trading higher, Utilities actually turned in the best performance as its defensive characteristics became attractive as a hedge against tomorrow's Fed directive possibly piquing concerns about the pace of economic growth. DJ30 +61.93 NASDAQ +13.80 SP500 +8.88 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1078/1937/1.67 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 957/2321/1.33 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $56; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(3-19-07) Suckers short-covering/bear market rally despite builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues,blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 115.76, S&P up 15.11, and NASDAQ up 21.75, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

State Farm to Re-Examine Katrina Claims
AP - State Farm Fire & Casualty Co. will re-examine more than 35,000 policyholder claims filed after Hurricane Katrina and "make millions of dollars available" for additional payments, Mississippi Insurance Commissioner George Dale said Monday.

BOJ Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged AP
ABN Amro, Barclays Confirm Talks
AP
Former Qwest CEO's Trial Under Way
AP
Superjumbo Jet Arrives in U.S.
AP

Stocks recouped nearly all of last week's losses Monday as investors embraced a round of encouraging M&A news that added to the belief that stocks are oversold on a short-term basis and may have found a bottom. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed up 1.0%, 1.1% and 0.9%, respectively.The biggest news item making waves was confirmation that Barclays PLC (BCS 53.43 -0.07) is in "exclusive preliminary discussions" with ABN Amro (ABN 41.36 +5.12) over a potential blockbuster merger. Such a combination would create a banking powerhouse with a market capitalization of roughly $156 bln.Also helping participants look past recent subprime concerns was a deal involving ServiceMaster's (SVM 15.14 +1.67) decision to go private for $4.7 bln. The 16% premium to Friday's closing stock price renewed enthusiasm for an investment banking group that has been at the heart of our Overweight rating on the Financials sector since September. Morgan Stanley (MS 75.02 +0.61) and Goldman Sachs (GS 202.44 +3.44) acted as financial advisers.Aside from the all-important Financials sector playing an influential role, M&A news also gave the Health Care sector a boost. Community Health Systems (CYH 34.78 -2.02) confirming it will pay $5.1 bln in cash for Triad Hospitals (TRI 51.95 +2.59) - canceling a $4.5 bln private equity bid - kept other hospital names in play as possible takeover targets.The Utilities sector was another bright spot for investors following reports that a Blackstone-led group is looking to trump a record-breaking $32 bln bid for TXU Corp. (TXU 64.28 +1.53). The day's best performing sector today was Energy. Not even a nearly 1% decline in oil prices was enough to attract sellers as bargain hunters, embracing a 2.7% surge in gasoline futures instead, scooped up beaten-down drillers and refiners.A rally in overseas markets, as a falling yen eased liquidity concerns tied to a potential unwinding of the carry trade, also helped restore optimism among investors also weighing the possibility of policy makers softening their language in this week's Fed policy directive. A more balanced approach to monetary policy Wednesday afternoon and improvement in the interest rate outlook would be welcome news, especially since lowered earnings expectations of late restrict the upside potential for equities.Volume on the NYSE just barely exceeding its slowest day of the year, and the lack of participation from transports, a leading economic indicator, diminished some of the excitement, however, behind the day's broad-based bounce. BTK 1.3% DJ30 +115.76 DJTA +0.3% DJUA +1.2% NASDAQ +21.75 SOX -0.6% SP500 +15.11 XOI +1.7% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1024/2036/1.69 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 816/2458/1.37 bln

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $56; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(3-16-07) CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues,blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average down 49.27, S&P down 5.33, and NASDAQ down 6.04, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Yahoo Not Available

TOP INVESTOR SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH
Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:56 EDT By Elif Kaban MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets. You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. It is going to be a huge mess, said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia. Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most. Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown. Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history, Rogers said. When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.....

GREENSPAN SAYS JUMP, WALL STREET'S PEEVED Comments from the former Fed chief still rattle the markets, while many critics say he is contradicting previous statements.
March 16 2007: 6:04 NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Alan Greenspan is causing more of a stir in retirement than he did as Fed chairman, shocking many investors with a radical make-over: irrepressible optimist turned curmudgeonly bear.Making matters worse, his critics contend that many of the troubles facing the U.S. economy - including growing tumult in the housing market - are a direct product of his prolonged policy of rock-bottom interest rates. His outlook was not always glum. On the contrary, Greenspan always seemed to be looking at the bright side when holding the economy together was part of his job description. This is what he had to say back in 2005 about the subprime mortgage market, where rising default rates have now sparked concern about a broader economic crisis: "Lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately," he argued at the height of the housing boom. With many of those very same lenders now declaring bankruptcy, their efficiency in measuring risk now seems a lot less sturdy - making Greenspan's assessment seem off target. Greenspan: Yen 'carry trade' can't last

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $57; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(3-15-07) Wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6)and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues,blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 26.28, S&P up 5.11, and NASDAQ up 6.96, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

FBI Raids N.American HQ of Japan Airline
AP - FBI agents raided the North American headquarters of Japan's All Nippon Airways on Thursday, authorities said. Agents executed a federal search warrant at ANA's customer relations and services office in Torrance early Thursday, FBI spokeswoman Laura Eimiller said.

Oil Prices Fall to Near $57 a Barrel AP
Bolivians: Coca-Cola Should Drop 'Coca'
AP
Greenspan: Subprime Spillover Unlikely
AP
ICE Makes Unsolicited Bid for CBOT
AP

Stocks built on Wednesday's gains, as investors weighed more reassurance that subprime mortgage misfortunes aren't spreading into the credit markets and some M&A activity against mixed economic data.With Bear Stearns (BSC 148.50 +3.21) known to have the most exposure to subprime mortgage debt compared to its large-cap brokerage brethren, management following up a solid Q1 report by saying its subprime exposure isn't huge (only 3%), and that dislocations provide opportunities, helped investors eventually look past the latest rumblings from former Fed Chairman Greenspan.Speaking to the Futures Industry Association in Florida, Greenspan said that subprime mortgages are "not a small issue" and that, if prices go down, the problems may spread, as he expects to see spillover to other sectors.  That prompted a knee-jerk reversal in stocks around 1:30 ET.Market participants, though, eventually took a bullish cue from notable leadership throughout the recently beaten-down Financials sector and closed the major averages higher for a second straight day. The sector got an added lift after Intercontinental Exchange (ICE 128.10 -3.83) announced a $9.9 bln rival bid for CBOT Holdings (BOT 194.95 +28.86), which is slated to merge with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME 532.87 -31.10).Merger news also provided a floor of support for the Consumer Staples, Materials and Utilities sectors. As evidenced by Drug Retail turning in one of the day's best performances, CVS Corp (CVS 33.34 +1.03) shareholders approved the $26 bln takeover of Caremark Rx (CMX 62.75 +1.67) while Walgreen Co. (WAG 45.75 +1.12) surged 2.4% amid rumors of a potential takeover.With regard to Materials, the day's best performing S&P 500 sector, Dow Chemical (DOW 45.78 +2.40), reportedly in talks to form a strategic joint venture with India's Reliance Industries, also raised speculation of a potential buy-out or break-up. TXU Corp. (TXU 64.39 +1.58) was a Utilities sector standout following reports that Blackstone Group and the Carlyle Group have approached power companies to partner on a TXU bid.Separately, investors had a batch of economic data to digest today as well. With the market hanging on every economic release to provide clues about Fed policy, today's data exaggerating inflation concerns, while also providing evidence of more manufacturing weakness, initially acted as an overhang.However, today's bearish data -- a hotter than expected rise in Feb. core PPI and two disappointing regional manufacturing surveys (NY Empire State Index and Philly Fed) -- didn't totally undermine the momentum from yesterday as the market decided to await tomorrow's more closely-watched CPI report to provide more clarity as to what policy makers may say and do when they reconvene next week. DJ30 +26.28 NASDAQ +6.96 SP500 +5.11 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1126/1887/1.71 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 948/2330/1.46 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $58; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(3-14-07) Commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds continues, blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 57.44, S&P up 9.22, and NASDAQ up 21.17, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Chiquita to Pay $25M Fine in Terror Case
AP - Banana company Chiquita Brands International said Wednesday it has agreed to a $25 million fine after admitting it paid terrorists for protection in a volatile farming region of Colombia.

Judge Drops Charges Against HP's Dunn AP
Google to Adopt New Privacy Measures
AP
U.S. Patent Office Offers Faster Reviews
AP
US Airways Workers Protest Negotiations
AP

After the Dow posted its second-biggest drop in nearly four years on Tuesday, a growing sense that yesterday's broad-based downturn was an overreaction eventually prompted some afternoon short covering and helped investors get over an underlying pessimistic hump Wednesday.Technical breakdowns on all major averages, as evidenced by the Dow slipping below the 12,000 mark intraday for the first time since November 6, 2006, exacerbated intraday declines before things finally turned around. Today's whipsaw trading activity was also attributed to this Friday's quarterly options expiration. Also known as "quadruple witching," the simultaneous expiration of index options, stock options, index futures, and single stock futures typically adds to market volatility... and Wednesday was no exception.With concerns still looming about a possible liquidity crunch tied to an unwinding of the carry trade, further deterioration in the yen following a narrower than expected current account deficit helped to alleviate such worries. However, the bigger issue on investors' minds again was whether potential defaults by subprime borrowers will spill over into the broader economy -- a concern we still believe is overblown.With the market closely eyeing today's Q1 report from Lehman Brothers (LEH 71.59 -0.41) to provide some clarity on the health of the troubling subprime mortgage market, management following up its record report by saying the sector will "continue to face headwinds in the near term" pushed the stock down as much as 5.5%.That exacerbated the mortgage delinquency news that rattled stocks Tuesday and left investors questioning whether the Financial sector's earnings potential will play out as expected. After tumbling 3.2% yesterday, Financials was down as much as 1.5% today, removing some notable leadership in the process. It wasn't until the sector turned the corner, due in part to Goldman Sachs (GS 200.03 +1.00) reportedly bankrolling subprime lenders with credit in anticipation of a rebound, that the rest of the market took notice and garnered enough confidence to suggest that stocks may have finally bottomed.Couple the Financial sector's recovery with widespread bargain-hunting efforts throughout the next most heavily-weighted sector - Technology - and stocks turned in a respectable performance. Dow component Microsoft (MSFT 27.40 +0.68), surging 2.5% on news Lenovo Group will make Microsoft's search technology the main portal on its PCs, was a big reason why all three major indices closed near session highs. All 10 economic sectors were posting losses at one point but all three finished with gains. DJ30 +57.44 NASDAQ +21.17 SP500 +9.22 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1405/1619/2.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1394/1904/1.93 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $58; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(3-13-07) Blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone propels stocks to end only modestly lower relative to reality to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average down 242.66, S&P down 28.65, and NASDAQ down 51.72, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Asia Stocks Fall After Sell-Off in U.S.
AP - Asian stocks plunged Wednesday after Wall Street chalked its second-biggest drop in four years and rattled already nervous markets worldwide.

Stocks Plummet on Subprime Lending Woes AP
Viacom Sues YouTube Over Copyrights
AP
Oil Prices Hover Around $58 a Barrel
AP
New Century Subpoenaed, Faces Delisting
AP

Stocks tumbled Tuesday as an overly pessimistic market exaggerated everything from the implications of an unwinding in the yen carry trade to potential defaults by subprime lenders spilling over into an economy that again showed signs of slowing. Before the bell, February retail sales rose just 0.1% (consensus 0.3%) while the more closely-watched sales, ex-autos, unexpectedly fell 0.1% (consensus 0.3%). Both figures pressured a market already extremely sensitive to signs of potential economic weakness even though unseasonably cold weather was a likely cause for the soft report. It is also worth noting that the data won't alter expectations of about 2% real GDP growth in Q1. However, with subprime mortgage worries acting as an overhang for weeks now, more negative developments in the space took a weak stock market and made it even weaker as sellers found another excuse to take some money off the table following three straight days of gains for the Dow and S&P 500.Accredited Home Lenders (LEND 3.97 -7.43) was the latest company in the subprime lineup to warn of such difficulties, saying it needs to raise new funds to cover the risk of default. The stock lost nearly 70% of its value. Adding insult to injury was Countrywide Financial's (CFC 33.49 -1.65) CEO saying on CNBC that the subprime issue is becoming a liquidity crisis.But the straw that broke the backs of the bulls today was a report midday from the Mortgage Bankers Association which showed delinquencies among subprime borrowers hit 13.3% in the fourth quarter. That was the highest rate in more than four years and overshadowed a blowout Q1 earnings report from Goldman Sachs (GS 199.03 -3.57) that discounted the overall impact of something we believe isn't going to have a material impact on the economy. Nonetheless, the damage was done as a 3.2% sell-off in the most influential of all S&P sectors -- Financials -- pulled the rug out from under a market and left buyers sidelined into the close. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq plunged 2.1% on average, forcing the NYSE to institute downside trading curbs. Of the 147 S&P industry groups, 146 posted losses.Further underscoring the widespread bearish tone were huge gains of 30% and 19% on the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) and the VXN (CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index), respectively. Both "investor fear gauges" closing near session highs, suggesting investors were actively buying put protection, heightened the anxiety that has been priced into stocks ever since the "Shanghai Surprise" rattled global equity markets two weeks ago today. BTK -1.3% DJ30 -242.66 DJTA -2.7% DJUA -1.5% DOT -2.2% NASDAQ -51.72 NQ100 -1.9% R2K -2.5% SOX -1.7% SP400 -2.0% SP500 -28.65 XOI -1.3% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2542/553/2.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2753/587/1.93 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $58; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(3-12-07) Mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone props stocks to end ridiculously higher to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 42.30, S&P up 3.75, and NASDAQ up 14.74, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

World's Third-Richest Man Gaining Wealth
AP - The world's third-richest man, Carlos Slim, is gaining rapidly on Bill Gates and Warren Buffett with a fortune that grew $19 billion last year -- the largest wealth gain in the past decade tracked by Forbes magazine.

Hertz Reports First Quarter Profit AP
New Discover Card Rewards Consumers
AP
China Tax Reform Said Ready for Vote
AP
Dollar General OK's $6.9B Bid From KKR
AP

The market had its share of trading catalysts today and it chose to ignore them for most of the session.On the plus side, oil prices dropped below $60 per barrel and there was another round of M&A activity that was highlighted by Schering-Plough's (SGP 23.95, +0.10) $14.4 billion cash offer for Akzo Nobel's drug unit Organon.  On the negative side, Countrywide Financial (CFC 35.14, -0.96) said it expects to experience short-term earnings volatility due to the tightening of its underwriting guidelines in response to the troubles in the subprime mortgage market.The latter declaration seemed to keep the market in handcuffs in the early-going as it fueled concerns about potential spillover effects of the subprime issue into the broader economy and weighed noticeably on the financial stocks.The broader market, however, didn't buckle in the face of initial selling efforts as relative strength in the technology sector (+0.83%) helped neutralize the weak showing in the financial sector (-0.03%).That measure of resilience held buyers' attention, as it was viewed as a potential signal that the concerns about the subprime mortgage issue have already been discounted in the market.  That point remains debatable, but recognizing the subprime factor didn't rattle the market in appreciable fashion, buyers emerged in the afternoon session and helped push the S&P 500 to the brink of the high point it saw on Friday following the February jobs report.  It was there that the afternoon rally try ran out of gas as technical resistance pushed the market back in the late stages of trading.The major indices, however, still closed the session with modest gains.  Eight out of ten economic sectors ended the day higher, but the lack of participation from the financial sector was the key, limiting factor that kept overall gains in check.Looking ahead, Tuesday will have its share of trading catalysts.  Tonight's mid-quarter update from Texas Instruments (TXN 32.59, +0.13), the earnings report from Goldman Sachs (GS 202.60, +0.90) before the open, and the February Retail Sales report will be the focal points.DJ30 +42.30 NASDAQ +14.74 SP500 +3.75 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1299/1724/1.50 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1244/2055/1.30 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $58; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(3-09-07) Waning full moon, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone props stocks to end ridiculously mixed to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 15.62, S&P up .96, and NASDAQ down .18, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Gates, Buffett Top Billionaires Ranking
AP - What could a Chinese dumpling maker and Mexican telecom mogul possibly have in common? They're among a record number of wealthy people who held the title of billionaire over the past year.

Vonage Reassures Customers After Lawsuit AP
Express Scripts Expects FTC Questions
AP
Aeon, Daiei to Announce Capital Tie-Up
AP
Weather or Styles? Retail Sales Sluggish
AP

With the bears failing to more convincingly consolidate gains yesterday, after the major indices turned in their best performances of the year a day earlier, evidence that a market bottom has been put in place, at least for now, helped pave the way for bulls to pick up more bargains. Investors also took some comfort from a rebound in overseas markets, which again showed signs of stabilization fueled in part by further deterioration in the yen. If you'll recall, the yen rally last week exacerbated concerns about the potential unwinding of carry trades leading to a global liquidity crunch. While we didn't attach a great deal of credence to the Asian market rally overnight as the driving catalyst behind today's broad-based rebound, knowing the tail doesn't wag the dog, there was no denying that the market's tone of late has shifted from overly pessimistic to, let's say, cautiously optimistic. Further underscoring the improved tone was the market's resilience in the face of weak February same-store sales. According to RetailMetrics, nearly two-thirds of retailers missed forecasts while the International Council of Shopping Centers-UBS sales tally rose a modest 2.4%, the smallest gain since last March and below the projected range of 2.5-3.0%. The coldest February since 1979 sidelined shoppers searching for spring fashions.Wal-Mart (WMT 47.84 -0.09) was down more than 1% at one point after the Dow component said monthly same-store sales rose just 0.9%, below its projected 1-2% range. Costco Wholesale (COST 54.27 -1.85), which was already under some pressure following weak Feb. comps as well, plunged an additional 3.0% midday after management guided Q3 earnings below consensus. The impact of the poor weather conditions weren't a huge surprise; moreover, February ranks as the second slowest month of the year, and March is widely expected to be a strong month as retailers are expected to capitalize on Spring Break and an early Easter. Among the 10 sectors trading higher, Telecom turned in the best performance due in large part to an analyst upgrade on Dow component AT&T (T 36.48 +1.05). Materials was also up more than 1%, led by today's best performing S&P industry group -- Steel (+4.2%). Nucor (NUE 63.53 +3.58) soared 6% following an upbeat Q1 outlook. Although closing well of its best levels of the session, Financials still provided the bulk of today's leadership. Beaten-down brokerage and bank stocks were big attractions among bargain hunters. However, renewed worries within the sub-prime mortgage space late in the day prompted some sector consolidation. Speculation surfaced around 2:00 ET that New Century Financial (NEW 3.87 -1.29) may seek Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection; the stock tumbled more than 30%. Health Care was also in focus after Express Scripts (ESRX 76.00 +1.23) sweetened its bid for Caremark Rx (CMX 62.16 +0.86) and raised its fiscal 2007 earnings outlook. Not to be outdone, CVS Corp (CVS 32.35 +1.03) later in the day provided a "best and final" offer for Caremark. Separately, investors did sift through one economic report Thursday. Initial claims fell 10,000 to 328,000 (consensus 335K). However, the jobless claims data had no impact on trading as the market turned its focus to Friday's more influential February employment report to get a clearer picture of labor conditions, especially given the data's influence on the market's outlook for the economy and Fed policy.DJ30 +68.25 NASDAQ +13.09 SP500 +9.92 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1287/1721/1.87 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 856/2438/1.51 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $60; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(3-08-07) Waning full moon, retail sales down (they say it�s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone props stocks to end ridiculously higher to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 68.25, S&P up 9.92, and NASDAQ up 13.09, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Gates, Buffett Top Billionaires Ranking
AP - What could a Chinese dumpling maker and Mexican telecom mogul possibly have in common? They're among a record number of wealthy people who held the title of billionaire over the past year.

Vonage Reassures Customers After Lawsuit AP
Express Scripts Expects FTC Questions
AP
Aeon, Daiei to Announce Capital Tie-Up
AP
Weather or Styles? Retail Sales Sluggish
AP

With the bears failing to more convincingly consolidate gains yesterday, after the major indices turned in their best performances of the year a day earlier, evidence that a market bottom has been put in place, at least for now, helped pave the way for bulls to pick up more bargains. Investors also took some comfort from a rebound in overseas markets, which again showed signs of stabilization fueled in part by further deterioration in the yen. If you'll recall, the yen rally last week exacerbated concerns about the potential unwinding of carry trades leading to a global liquidity crunch. While we didn't attach a great deal of credence to the Asian market rally overnight as the driving catalyst behind today's broad-based rebound, knowing the tail doesn't wag the dog, there was no denying that the market's tone of late has shifted from overly pessimistic to, let's say, cautiously optimistic. Further underscoring the improved tone was the market's resilience in the face of weak February same-store sales. According to RetailMetrics, nearly two-thirds of retailers missed forecasts while the International Council of Shopping Centers-UBS sales tally rose a modest 2.4%, the smallest gain since last March and below the projected range of 2.5-3.0%. The coldest February since 1979 sidelined shoppers searching for spring fashions.Wal-Mart (WMT 47.84 -0.09) was down more than 1% at one point after the Dow component said monthly same-store sales rose just 0.9%, below its projected 1-2% range. Costco Wholesale (COST 54.27 -1.85), which was already under some pressure following weak Feb. comps as well, plunged an additional 3.0% midday after management guided Q3 earnings below consensus. The impact of the poor weather conditions weren't a huge surprise; moreover, February ranks as the second slowest month of the year, and March is widely expected to be a strong month as retailers are expected to capitalize on Spring Break and an early Easter. Among the 10 sectors trading higher, Telecom turned in the best performance due in large part to an analyst upgrade on Dow component AT&T (T 36.48 +1.05). Materials was also up more than 1%, led by today's best performing S&P industry group -- Steel (+4.2%). Nucor (NUE 63.53 +3.58) soared 6% following an upbeat Q1 outlook. Although closing well of its best levels of the session, Financials still provided the bulk of today's leadership. Beaten-down brokerage and bank stocks were big attractions among bargain hunters. However, renewed worries within the sub-prime mortgage space late in the day prompted some sector consolidation. Speculation surfaced around 2:00 ET that New Century Financial (NEW 3.87 -1.29) may seek Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection; the stock tumbled more than 30%. Health Care was also in focus after Express Scripts (ESRX 76.00 +1.23) sweetened its bid for Caremark Rx (CMX 62.16 +0.86) and raised its fiscal 2007 earnings outlook. Not to be outdone, CVS Corp (CVS 32.35 +1.03) later in the day provided a "best and final" offer for Caremark. Separately, investors did sift through one economic report Thursday. Initial claims fell 10,000 to 328,000 (consensus 335K). However, the jobless claims data had no impact on trading as the market turned its focus to Friday's more influential February employment report to get a clearer picture of labor conditions, especially given the data's influence on the market's outlook for the economy and Fed policy.DJ30 +68.25 NASDAQ +13.09 SP500 +9.92 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1287/1721/1.87 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 856/2438/1.51 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $61; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(3-07-07) Blazing full moon, jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories spurs oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone props stocks to end modestly lower relative to reality to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average down 15.14, S&P down 3.44, and NASDAQ down 10.50, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Stocks Edge Lower, Show More Stability
AP - Stocks fell slightly but showed more signs of stability Wednesday as investors sifted through new economic data and found little reason to resume last week's heavy selling pace.

Gasoline Again Flirts With $3 Mark AP
Exxon Mobil Plans 20-Plus New Projects
AP
TiVo Posts Narrower 4th-Quarter Loss
AP
Economy Grows in Most Areas of U.S.
AP

For the first time in over a week, volatility was relatively absent. However, after snapping a three-day losing streak in noticeable fashion a day earlier and being whipsawed since the global sell-off on February 27, it wasn't surprising to see investors look a bit fatigued Wednesday. Since yesterday's huge rally was based as little on fundamentals as was last week's meltdown, and indicative of short covering activity amid an increasingly pessimistic mindset, today's breather wasn't overly disconcerting. In fact, some semblance of stabilization provides some hope that a bottom may have been put in place. The absence of any scheduled economic data, until the Fed's Beige Book late in the day, or notable earnings reports, kept follow-through efforts in check throughout most of the session. Some new evidence suggesting the economy may be slowing more than anticipated, however, eventually provided enough fodder for the bears to question the sustainability of yesterday's broad-based bounce and get in the last word. Before the bell, ADP reported that only 57,000 new private jobs (or 64,000 nonfarm equivalent jobs) were created in February. Since the market is more concerned with growth than inflation, especially following several assertions from former Fed Chairman Greenspan about a possible recession later in the year, the ADP payrolls number checking in at the lowest level since July 2003 raised some anxiety that economists will have to downwardly revise their estimates for Feb. nonfarm payrolls. The current consensus stands at 100,000. Even though the monthly ADP report lacks credibility, as its miss over the last six months averages 78,000, or nearly twice the 40,000 miss of the more closely-watched data compiled by the Labor Dept., we believe a payroll gain on Friday as low as 50,000 would weigh heavily on a market now increasingly focused on negative items. At 2:00 ET, the Fed showed that most of its 12 districts reported modest growth, but that s everal districts also noted some slowing. That took some steam out of what was finally shaping up to be a respectable extension of Tuesday's rally.Further underscoring nervousness about the pace of economic growth was a subsequent flight-to-quality bid in bonds. The 10-year note finished up 8 ticks, pushing the yield below 4.50%; but that did little for the rate-sensitive Financials sector. After pacing the way yesterday with an impressive 2.1% advance, that sizable gain incited some profit taking and removed some notable leadership.Energy was the only sector to finish in the plus column, and that was in sympathy with surging oil prices, which near $62/bbl are bearish for stocks. Crude for April delivery closed up 1.9% near $61.85/bbl following an unexpected decline in weekly crude supplies and a large drawdown in gasoline inventories.  That provided another excuse to take some money off the table, along with a candid remark from homebuilder DR Horton's CEO who was quoted as saying all 12 months in 2007 are "going to suck."DJ30 -15.14 NASDAQ -10.50 SP500 -3.44 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1728/1291/2.00 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1616/1640/1.65 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $61; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(3-06-07) Blazing full moon, productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� fueled by b**l s**t alone to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 157.18, S&P up 21.29 and NASDAQ down up 44.46, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Official: Firms Examining Chrysler Books
AP - Daimler-Benz AG paid $36 billion for the company in 1998, but industry analysts now place its value at anywhere from nothing to $13.7 billion.

Nike Unveils New Basketball Uniforms AP
Topps Accepts $385.4M Takeover Bid
AP
Oil Prices Rise in Asian Trading
AP
Dow Ends Up 157 on Overseas Gains
AP

One week ago fears that the market was getting ahead of itself, after running virtually unabated since bottoming in July, caught the bulls off guard, resulting in the biggest one-day point decline since the U.S. markets reopened on September 17, 2001. The Dow slipped into negative territory for the year as all 30 components suffered losses. Today, those overbought concerns were thrown out the window, for the time being anyway, as a sense that a bottom has finally formed following a week of aggressive selling pressure gave stocks a sizable boost right out of the gate. The Dow soared 1.3%, logging its best one-day gain since last July; 29 of 30 components finished with gains. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also had their best performances of the year as sellers ran for cover. Market internals were decidedly bullish as advancers outpaced decliners on the NYSE by a 5-to-1 margin while those on the Nasdaq held a 4-to-1 advantage. Further underscoring the change in sentiment were declines of 19% and 14% on the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) and the VXN (CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index). Known as the "investor fear gauges," both indexes spiking lower suggest investors were actively buying call options in anticipation that investors are growing more cognizant of the fact that recent events have simply had little to no bearing on the fundamental picture. With a possible unwinding of the yen carry trade potentially leading to a liquidity crunch acting as an overhang, some profit taking in the Japanese currency helped to quell such concerns and prompted a rebound in Asian markets overnight. Japan's Nikkei index rose 1.2% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index surged 2.1%. With the U.S. markets also extremely sensitive to any good news, participants used the rally in overseas markets as a springboard to pick up bargains across the board. All 10 economic sectors posted solid gains and, in stark contrast to the action early yesterday morning, when 144 of 147 S&P industry groups were in the red, only three groups failed to participate in today's broad-based recovery. More notably, the most influential sector of them all -- Financials -- also turning in the best performance lent even more conviction on the part of buyers' optimism about the health of the economy. U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson saying that sub-prime lending will not have a major impact on the financial sector or the global economy kicked things off on a positive note. Paulson also saying that, "The global economy is more than sound... it's as strong in the last couple of years as I've seen in a lifetime... I see no downturn" also helped to offset former Fed Chairman Greenspan's latest assertion that there is a "one-third probability" of a U.S. recession this year. Finally, what would a market rally be without some commentary from the current Fed Chairman? At 2:00 ET, Bernanke chimed in with some remarks about government sponsored enterprises. While he wasn't expected to offer much in the way of clarity about Fed policy, his tough stance on Fannie Mae (FNM 54.83 +1.71) and Freddie Mac (FRE 62.11 +0.75), saying their portfolios "continue to represent a potentially significant source of systemic risk," was embraced by the market as being reassuring.BTK +0.4% DJ30 +157.18 DJTA +1.0% DJUA 1.3% DOT +1.6% NASDAQ +44.46 NQ100 +1.8% R2K +2.5% SOX +1.7% SP400 +1.6% SP500 +21.29 XOI +1.9% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 604/2461/2.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 551/2752/1.80 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $60; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(3-05-07) The lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� into the close fueled by b**l s**t alone to trim yet only modest losses relative to reality to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average down 63.69, S&P down 13.05, and NASDAQ down 27.32, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody�s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What�s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers� funds.Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great Depression's low. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Asian Stocks Rally After Global Sell-Off
AP - Asian stock markets rallied Tuesday, reversing a weeklong sell-off triggered by worries of a global slowdown and fanning hope that international trading turmoil may finally subside.

Lawmakers Considering New 401(k) Rules AP
Conrad Black Confident He'll Be Cleared
AP
Paulson Says Global Economy Strong
AP
Wal-Mart Fires Worker Over Eavesdropping
AP

After seeing roughly $1.8 trillion in world market value erased last week, it was anyone's guess as to whether continued fears of a global economic slowdown would carry over into today's trading. To the dismay of the bulls relishing an eight-month winning streak on the S&P 500 before last week's sell-off, tepid bargain-hunting efforts Monday were eventually met with another aggressive round of profit taking. Further deterioration in overseas markets ushered in a new week of nervousness, which merely reminded investors that oversold markets tend to get more oversold before a bottom can be formed. Japan's Nikkei plunged 3.3% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng led the way a 4.0% decline, as a rising yen continued to feed fears about the ramifications of carry trades being unwound by hedge funds that borrowed money at low rates. The European bourses lost about 1.0% on average while the Nasdaq led the way domestically, tacking a 1.2% decline onto last week's 5.8% drubbing. All 10 economic sectors posted losses; of the 147 S&P industry groups, 138 closed lower. On a positive note, St. Louis Fed President Poole dismissed fears of a recession for the second time in as many trading sessions. However, he also discounted the need for possible government intervention, saying it doesn't make sense to respond to stock market declines unless they're extremely large and disruptive. Poole said that it would take a 1987-like market meltdown to justify interest rate cuts. Adding insult to injury to a market now fixated on everything negative and inundated with overblown recession fears was another round of negative developments in the sub-prime mortgage space. New Century Financial (NEW 4.38 -10.27) tumbled 70% after reports of a federal criminal probe exacerbated concerns about a domino effect knocking over the prime lenders as well. Countrywide Financial (CFC 35.17 -1.85), already under additional pressure after being downgraded at Lehman Brothers, was the worst performer (-5.0%) in the Financials sector. As the most influential of the 10 S&P sectors, the financial sector's 1.6% decline was among the biggest reasons for yet another day of disappointment for the bulls. DJ30 -63.59 NASDAQ -27.32 SP500 -13.05 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2491/592/2.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2736/595/1.87 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $60; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(3-02-07) The lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� into the close fueled by b**l s**t alone to trim yet only modest losses relative to reality to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average down 120.24, S&P down 16.00, and NASDAQ down 36.21, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... Bernanke responds with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Stocks Post Worst Week in Over 4 Years
AP - Stocks stumbled in the final session of a tumultuous week Friday as the yen rallied against the dollar and concerns about the U.S. economy still dogged investors after Tuesday's huge drop.

Motorola CEO Got $13.2M as Profits Fell AP
SEC Files Insider Trading Suit Over TXU
AP
Guidant Suits Mount at Boston Scientific
AP
Toyota May Face Backlash From Congress
AP

The major averages closed sharply lower Friday amid growing fears of a liquidity crunch and worries that sub-prime mortgage misfortunes will spread into the broader economy. Even though Fed Chairman Bernanke briefly put both concerns to rest in a Q&A session on Wednesday, his words appear to have since fallen on deaf ears. With Tuesday's sell-off shifting the market's focus to everything negative, the implications of what a mass exodus of speculative buying interest may have on the rest of the market made increasingly risk-averse investors even more frightened about the much talked about market correction. As evidenced by another plunge in the futures market Friday morning, another rally in the Japanese yen shed some more light on the high degree of speculation that has been fed by unprecedented levels of liquidity. The correlation again raised concerns that hedge funds benefiting from the so-called carry trade may all start to unwind positions at the same time, which could have a ripple effect around the globe. Meanwhile, U.S. regulators today demanded tougher standards for sub-prime adjustable-rate mortgages; but the news merely minimized losses in Countrywide Financial (CFC 37.19 -0.25) which yesterday reported in an SEC filing that delinquencies surged 19% last year. On a positive note, St. Louis Fed President Poole made some early remarks. He dismissed fears of a recession, said he sees nothing in carry trades that is disruptive at this stage and that stock market valuation "does not seem to be elevated" at this time. Nonetheless, the market's "sell first, think later" mentality led to even more asset reallocation and continued to overshadow the fact that market fundamentals have not changed and that valuations on stocks are actually still attractive. DJ30 -120.24 NASDAQ -36.21 SP500 -16.00 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2259/759/2.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2452/822/1.67 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $61; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(3-01-07) The lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� into the close fueled by b**l s**t alone to trim yet only modest losses relative to reality to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average down 34.29, S&P down 3.65, and NASDAQ down 11.94, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... Bernanke responds with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Prosecutors Crack Insider-Trading Ring
AP - The defendants included husband-and-wife lawyers, registered representatives, compliance personnel and hedge fund portfolio managers who improperly relied on hundreds of tips during five years of illegal trading.

Berkshire to Release Annual Report Early AP
Buffett Wants Charities to Spend Fast
AP
Dell 4Q Earnings and Revenues Drop
AP
Oracle to Buy Hyperion for $3.3 Billion
AP

Even though the indices closed well off their lowest levels of the day, they still finished in negative territory and kicked off the month of March on a sour note. Renewed concerns about the ripple effect of an unwinding of the yen-carry trade weighed most heavily on a market that is now overly pessimistic. Such worries were exacerbated in pre-market trading after Japan's top financial diplomat warned that those carry trades shouldn't be considered "one-way." That pushed the yen up more than 1% to an 11-week high against the dollar, reminiscent of the 2% yen rally on Tuesday that accelerated stock declines across the globe as speculators dumped equities to pay off their yen loans. In similar fashion to yesterday's action, the idea that the worst may be over subsequently prompted some sellers to cover their short positions. At their opening lows, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down as much as 1.7%, 1.8%, and 2.3%, respectively, but intraday recovery efforts had all three in positive territory temporarily. A failed rally from session lows positioned bonds yet again as the best place to seek refuge until the dust settles. In fact, recognition that Wednesday's recovery effort wasn't all that convincing, when measured against such a meltdown like the one seen Tuesday, created an added sense of uneasiness. Yesterday, the Dow snapped a five-day losing streak; but its 52-point advance paled in comparison to the 416-point drubbing it endured a day earlier. The S&P 500 was the best performer among the majors Wednesday, but its modest 0.6% advance after tumbling 3.5% Tuesday also offered very little assurance that a bottom was forming. As a result, the market was vulnerable Thursday to follow-through selling before the market even opened. Add to that some mixed economic data and a recently overly optimistic market now focused on everything negative struggled to fully embrace a surprisingly strong manufacturing report. At 10:00 ET, the February ISM survey rose to 52.3 from 49.3 in January. That eased the recession fears that have been unnecessarily building and put a bid in the market that helped to more than halve the market's early losses. However, a 0.3% increase in the Fed's favored inflation gauge -- the core-PCE -- was above expectations and left the year/year increase at 2.3%. Since that was above the Fed's comfort zone of 1% to 2%, and the market needs good numbers right now, the data did not lend much support to improving price stability.DJ30 -34.29 NASDAQ -11.94 SP500 -3.65 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2005/1051/2.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2046/1234/2.09 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $62; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(2-28-07) The lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally� (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� into the close fueled by b**l s**t alone to trim yet only modest losses relative to reality to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 52.39, S&P up 7.73, and NASDAQ up 8.27, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... Bernanke responds with b**l s**t.New home sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Dow Ends Up 52, Nasdaq Up 8 After Plunge
AP - Wall Street rebounded fitfully Wednesday from the previous session's 416-point plunge in the Dow industrials as investors took comfort from comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke but still showed signs of unease about the economy.

Fed Chairman Says Markets Working Well AP
Economy Grows Slower Than Expected in 4Q
AP
Europe, Asia Stocks Drop, China Recovers
AP
Sprint Nextel's 4Q Revenue, Profit Rise
AP

With many believing that the stock market had gotten ahead of itself, it appears Tuesday's drubbing may have been the long-overdue consolidation that had been talked about for some time. As a result, a sense that yesterday's corrective activity was an overreaction, which plays into our reiteration that market fundamentals overall remain moderately bullish, triggered enough bottom-fishing interest to help stocks bounce back.Even though the market was poised for a rebound before Fed Chairman Bernanke began speaking before the House Budget Committee at 10:00 ET, there's no question that his ensuing thoughts about Tuesday's sell-off helped provide the reassurance investors needed to stay the course long enough to recoup some of the market's meltdown.After all, the spate of economic data hitting the wires before Bernanke even took the podium today was disappointing on the whole. At 8:30 ET, Q4 GDP was revised lower, as expected, checking in at 2.2%. The advance read a month earlier showed the U.S. economy grew at a 3.5% pace. At 9:45 ET, the Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (47.9%) in February since April 2003, serving as a reminder that the manufacturing sector is struggling. Then at 10:00 ET, new home sales in January plunged 16.6%, the biggest drop in 13 years, adding insult to the ongoing injury that is housing.Be that as it may, Bernanke surprisingly answered questions pertaining to yesterday's plunge and did so with a slew of remarks that helped participants look past the day's disappointing economic reports, rising interest rates and higher energy prices. Nine out of 10 sectors posted gains. Bernanke reassured investors, saying "there didn't seem to be any single trigger'' for Tuesday's sell-off. He also noted that financial markets "seem to be working well" and there has been "no material change" in the Fed's expectation for the U.S. economy. In fact, he said today's downward revision to Q4 GDP is "more consistent with our overall view of the economy'' than the original report and that there's a "reasonable possibility" that the economy will show signs of strengthening as the year progresses.The Fed Chairman also put to rest concerns about sub-prime mortgage lending spreading into the broader economy and said he sees no liquidity problem. Both items contributed to yesterday's widespread panic, and have provided an added sense of comfort for bargain hunters believing the sell-off was overdone. Further underscoring renewed bullishness were notable declines of 15.5% and 11.5% on the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) and the VXN (CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index), respectively. Both "investor fear gauges" erasing some of the heightened anxiety priced into yesterday's session, amid aggressive put buying, suggests a short-term bottom is being formed as sellers began to cover some of their short positions. DJ30 +51.91 NASDAQ +8.27 SP500 +7.73 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1370/1685/2.50 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1123/2181/1.96 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $61; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(2-27-07) The lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) are maniacal as lunatics suckers �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic report/fed speak (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� rally into the close fueled by b**l s**t alone to trim yet only modest losses relative to reality to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average down 416.02, S&P down 50.33, and NASDAQ down 96.66, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession...Durables down over seven percent. Are they going to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Investors to Eye Data on Dow's Plunge
AP - After Wall Street saw its biggest losses on Tuesday since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, investors will be looking at fresh economic data on Wednesday to see if the plunge was justified.

Most Asian Markets Plunge AP
Shanghai Shares Rebound Nearly 4 Percent
AP
Oil Prices Continue to Dip
AP
AT&T Resumes Rollout for Cable TV
AP

With earnings growth expected to slow to near 5% for Q1, and perhaps check in at just 7% for Q2 and Q3, there were already concerns the market was getting ahead of itself, especially since stocks have run virtually unabated since bottoming in July.Add to that concerns the Chinese government may step up its efforts to curb speculative buying interest, as evidenced by the biggest one-day decline on Shanghai Composite Index in 10 years, and stock markets across the globe that were primed for a correction witnessed one of the worst days in recent memory.Throw in renewed geopolitical tensions (i.e. a failed assassination attempt on Vice President Dick Cheney), a weak durable goods report, and underlying sub-prime lending concerns, and a market long overdue for some sort of corrective activity sold off.The Dow was down as much as 546 points (-4.3%), before bouncing back to close down 416 points. That was still the biggest one-day point decline since the markets reopened on September 17, 2001 (-7.1%), leaving the Dow in negative territory for the year; all 30 components suffered losses. The S&P 500, where only one of its 147 industry groups closed in positive territory, finished lower for a fifth consecutive session - its longest losing streak in three years. The broader market, with all 10 economic sectors averaging losses of 3.5%, posted its first decline of more than 2% since May 2003.The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) and the VXN (CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index) soaring 59% and 39%, respectively, further underscored the heightened anxiety witnessed in today's session. Known as "investor fear gauges," the spikes higher on both indexes suggested investors were actively buying put options in anticipation that too much money floating around will lead to more market declines, with things likely getting worse before they get better. BTK -3.69% DJ30 -416.02 DJTA -3.43% DJUA -2.88% DOT -3.96% NASDAQ -96.66 NQ100 -4.06% R2K -3.74% SOX -3.06% SP400 -3.08% SP500 -50.33 XOI -3.50% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2834/285/3.05 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2904/469/2.27 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $61; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(2-26-07) The lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) are maniacal as lunatics suckers �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic report/fed speak (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� rally into the close fueled by b**l s**t alone to end ridiculously only modestly lower relative to reality to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average down 15.22, S&P down 1.82, and NASDAQ down 10.58, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession... Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Dow Ends Down 15, Nasdaq Closes Down 11
AP - Wall Street extended its decline Monday as concerns about a market correction offset investor optimism that acquisition activity is on pace to set a record this year.

Oil Prices Settle Above $61 a Barrel AP
Payless, Nike to Make High-Tech Sneaker
AP
Fitch Downgrades TXU Ratings
AP
XM Radio Posts Narrower 4Q Loss
AP

So much for kicking off a fresh new week on a positive note, as underlying worries about the pace of economic growth, valuation concerns, and a lack of key leadership offset a slate of encouraging M&A news.Before the opening bell, it seemed as though the blue-chip indices would snap a three-day losing streak as investors initially applauded some Monday-morning deal making. TXU Corp. (TXU 67.97 +7.95) soared more than 13% to an all-time high after agreeing to be taken private for $45 bln (including debt). That qualified it as the largest private-equity deal ever. Reports that Dow Chemical (DOW 44.99 +1.54) could get a leveraged buyout bid worth up to $54 bln in the next few weeks further underscored that there is still a lot of liquidity on the sidelines. However, since the latter deal has not been confirmed and the TXU deal merely prompted industry-wide takeover speculation in one of the S&P 500's least influential sectors (Utilities), investors weren't overly convinced that stocks as a whole remain attractively valued, especially after such an impressive run-up since bottoming out last July. As a reminder, the broader market has not retreated as much as 2% since the rally began, again leaving many to believe a correction or an extended consolidation period is long overdue.Adding insult to injury, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan suggesting it is possible there could be a recession later this year left investors revisiting the historical significance of an inverted yield curve and its ability to precede U.S. economic downturns. Sure, bonds rallied for a second straight day, but the spread between the 2-year and 10-year notes slipping deeper into inversion (14 basis points) took an added toll on the rate-sensitive Financials sector. Citigroup (C 52.68 -1.09) was the day's worst performing Dow component (-2.0%) and, as a heavily-weighted S&P 500 constituent, exacerbated sector weakness. While the brokers have been one of the leading groups in the recent bull market, the recent one-two punch of a technical break-down in the AMEX Securities Broker/Dealer Index and lingering concerns over subprime lending exposure also overshadowed the healthy M&A activity behind our Overweight rating on the financial sector. Greenspan's comments, coupled with the N.A.B.E. predicting the slowest economic growth for the U.S. in five years and an expected downward revision to the originally reported 3.5% Q4 GDP number on Wednesday, also left valuations vulnerable in economically-sensitive areas like Consumer Discretionary, the day's worst performing S&P sector, Technology and Industrials. DJ30 -15.22 DJTA -2.4% DJUA +2.6% DOT -0.5% NASDAQ -10.58 NQ100 -0.5% R2K -0.4% SOX -0.1% SP400 -0.4% SP500 -1.82 XOI +0.4% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1802/1219/1.89 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1674/1616/1.50 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $61; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(2-23-07) The lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) are maniacal as lunatics suckers �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic report/fed speak (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� rally into the close fueled by b**l s**t alone to end ridiculously only modestly lower relative to reality to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average down 38.54, S&P down 5.19, and NASDAQ down 9.84, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Wendy's to Shut Original Restaurant
AP - Wendy's International Inc. said Friday that sagging sales will force it to close the restaurant where the nation's third-largest hamburger chain began in 1969. The iconic restaurant, filled with memorabilia and photographs of the late Wendy's founder, Dave Thomas, will close March 2.

Private Firms Talking About TXU Purchase AP
Dow Drops 39, Nasdaq Sheds 10; Oil Rises
AP
Judge Won't Stop Caremark-CVS Deal
AP
DOJ Launches KB Home Stock Options Probe
AP

Stock prices slumped on Friday under the weight of a weak financial sector, which got marked down on concerns about the problems in the subprime mortgage market.  Those aren't new concerns, but the new thought that influenced investors today was the concern that the problems in the subprime market will carry over to prime lenders. Now, before creating an impression that participants were really spooked by that possibility, let's be real and take a look at the major indices, and specifically the S&P 500 which dropped a mere 5 points. To be sure, if the subprime issue was really worrying investors, the S&P 500 would have been down a lot more than it was on Friday.  The fact that it wasn't speaks to an enduring bullish bias that has been aided by strong liquidity and good old-fashioned momentum. While Briefing.com has retained a moderately bullish outlook, we are a bit concerned that the market is getting ahead of itself knowing that earnings growth will slow this year and that there is a lingering threat that the Fed will raise interest rates again. One of the factors contributing to the rate hike threat is the rebound in oil prices, which hit a high of $61.80 today on the April contract before sliding back on profit taking efforts to close at $60.92.  Iran's defiance of the UN over its nuclear program and concerns about refinery production played a big part in oil's uptick this week. The energy sector (+0.21%) was one of the few winning groups on Friday, but its gains got pared as oil prices retreated late in the session.  The utilities sector (+0.95%) was the market's strongest area as better than expected earnings from Nicor (GAS 46.87, +0.59), the sector's defensive orientation, and a drop in market rates sparked buying demand for the income-oriented stocks. Broad-based weakness in the financial sector (-1.08%), though, was the market's biggest stumbling block today that kept it from making any spirited rebound tries.  REITs and investment banking stocks were the hardest hit by selling activity. In other developments, home improvement retailer Lowe's (LOW 34.93, +1.30) was a winning standout after reporting fourth quarter EPS results that topped expectations by three cents. The real impetus for the stock's advance, though, was the company's admission that it is encouraged by indications that suggest sales trends have bottomed. Separately, the Treasury market fared well in a flight-to-quality trade that saw the 10-year yield gain 14 ticks and its yield drop to 4.67%.DJ30 -38.54 NASDAQ -9.84 SP500 -5.19 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1737/1305/2.04 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1676/1599/1.37 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $61; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(2-22-07) The lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) are maniacal as lunatics suckers �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic report/fed speak (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� rally into the close fueled by b**l s**t alone to end ridiculously mixed to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average down 52.39, S&P down 1.25, and NASDAQ up 6.52, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Oil rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Microsoft Hit With $1.52B in Damages
AP - Microsoft Corp. must pay $1.52 billion in damages to telecommunications equipment maker Alcatel-Lucent SA for violating two patents related to digital music, a federal jury ruled Thursday.

Sanyo Probed Over False Earnings Reports AP
Toll Brothers 1Q Profit Falls 67 Percent
AP
Oil Trading Slow on U.S. Inventory Drop
AP
Chrysler CEO Mum on Rumors of Sale
AP

In similar fashion to yesterday's mixed finish, investors were again split as to whether or not stocks at current levels are overbought. With so many different indices, from the Dow Industrials and Transportation averages to the S&P 400 MidCap and Russell 2000, hitting records, it's easy to see why some on Wall Street remain concerned that the market is getting ahead of itself. That's especially true since continued market gains require an expansion in the P/E multiple, which typically is associated with an improving earnings growth outlook or declining interest rates. However, it remains to be seen if the Fed will ease anytime soon while earnings growth for the S&P 500 is expected to slow to near 5% in Q1, and perhaps 7% for Q2 and Q3. Aside from an encouraging outlook from Analog Devices (ADI 36.59 +3.27) renewing growth prospects for some semiconductor stocks (e.g. TXN +2.3%, MXIM +7.8%, LLTC +9.8% and NSM +6.4%), which helped Technology provide some decent leadership, the bulk of notable reports making headlines today confirmed that profits are decelerating. JC Penney (JCP 83.65 -2.70) posted record results, but Q4 earnings fell 13% from a year ago and management guided Q1 EPS below consensus estimates. Aside from JCP's report providing an excuse to lock in retail gains, weakness among homebuilders also weighed on the Consumer Discretionary sector. Toll Brothers (TOL 31.69 -1.17) posted a 67% drop in quarterly earnings. Of the six sectors losing ground, Industrials turned in the worst performance. After hitting an all-time high yesterday, Deere & Co (DE 112.85 -3.10) succumbed to the most aggressive of profit-taking efforts. Transportation, also a day removed from reaching historic highs, was another sector sore sport as oil prices surging 1.4% to close near $61/bbl provided a reason to take some money off the table. Crude for April delivery tacked a 1.4% advance onto yesterday's 2.0% gain after the Energy Dept. reported much larger than expected drawdowns in gasoline and distillate supplies. Oil got an added boost following reports that Iran failed to suspend its nuclear enrichment activity by the February 21 deadline. Per usual, the Energy sector took notice of crude's climb, halving its year-to-date decline with a 1.0% gain. However, with oil above $60/bbl potentially bringing the commodity's inflationary characteristics back into focus among policy makers, Energy's leadership was not enough to act as an offset. Dow component Exxon Mobil (XOM 75.00 +0.22), which as the most influential S&P 500 constituent accounts for 23% of the weighting in Energy, only closed up 0.3%. DJ30 -52.39 DJTA -0.3% DJUA +0.4% NASDAQ +6.52 NQ100 +0.4% SOX +2.8% SP400 -0.2% SP500 -1.25 XOI +0.6% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1343/1651/2.03 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1753/1477/1.40 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $60; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(2-21-07) The lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) are maniacal as lunatics suckers �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic report/fed speak (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� rally into the close fueled by b**l s**t alone to end ridiculously mixed to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average down 48.23, S&P down 2.05, and NASDAQ up 5.38, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Stagflation, fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Cisco, Apple Settle 'IPhone' Dispute
AP - Cisco Systems Inc. and Apple Inc. have agreed to share the "iPhone" name, but both companies are staying tightlipped about what future products might come from the resulting deal to collaborate on "interoperability" between the companies' products.

Duke Balancing Demand Vs. Global Warming AP
Oil Prices Hover Around $60 a Barrel
AP
American to Increase New York Flights
AP
Medical Costs Boost Consumer Prices
AP

The indices finished mixed Wednesday as a modest warning signal about a potential firming in inflation rates weighed on sentiment and exacerbated the temptation to take some money off the table. Mindful that so many indices -- from the Dow Industrials, Transports and Utilities to the S&P 400 MidCap and Russell 2000 -- hit record highs a day earlier, a sense that stocks are overbought on a short-term basis contributed to an underlying sense of nervousness as investors awaited the latest read on consumer inflation. Valuation concerns came under additional scrutiny around 8:30 ET when the Labor Dept. showed that core CPI in January rose 0.3%.  That was the biggest increase since June and followed three consecutive tame readings of 0.1%. It also pushed the year-over-year increase in the core rate to 2.7%, clearly above the Fed's desired range.While the one month read on inflation does not signal a new trend, it does signal that inflation pressures may not have diminished as much as the market had hoped, which tarnished the Goldilocks scenario painted last week by Fed Chairman Bernanke's surprisingly dovish commentary. With the Dow fresh off closing in record territory for four straight days, it wasn't surprising to see the blue-chip average come under some profit-taking pressure. The Dow's biggest disappointment was Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 41.09 -2.04), which plunged 4.7% after failing to impress shareholders with its earnings release last night. H-P's Q1 earnings topped Wall Street forecasts, but Q2 guidance that barely exceeded analysts' expectations gave investors an excuse to lock in recent gains. The stock is up 50% since bottoming in June of last year. Fellow Dow component Microsoft (MSFT 29.35 +0.52), however, fared much better and was the biggest reason behind the Nasdaq's ability to hold onto a small gain. Microsoft, the tech-heavy Composite's most heavily-weighted component, was up 1.8% following reports that the state of Texas [alone] is expected to generate more than $6 bln of Windows Vista-related products and services this year. Of the eight sectors closing lower, Utilities turned in the worst performance but the absence of leadership in the more influential Health Care sector was more noteworthy. Medtronic (MDT 51.91 -2.63) topped Wall Street expectations last night, but management narrowing its full-year revenue and earnings guidance earmarked the stock as the sector's biggest laggard (-4.8%). Dow component Merck (MRK 43.94 -0.56) plunging 1.4% after reportedly suspending its Gardasil mandatory-vaccination campaign also offset strength among PBMs -- one of the day's best performing S&P industry groups. Medco Health Solutions (MHS 67.66 +6.07) soared nearly 10% to an all-time high after following up a 29% rise in Q4 profits by projecting 2008 EPS growth of at least 20%. Materials was the day's best performing sector, but that was due in large part to gold prices, which can act as an inflation hedge, surging 3.2% to nine-month highs. Energy also finished to the upside and helped to offset some of the losses on the S&P 500. However, renewed enthusiasm for beaten down energy names also came at the expense of surging oil prices. Crude for April delivery rose 2.1% and closed above the psychological $60/bbl mark in anticipation that tomorrow's weekly inventory report will show a larger than expected drawdown in distillates. Even though total CPI rose just 0.2% in January, reflecting the fact that falling energy prices remain a factor in pulling down overall inflation rates, oil prices above $60/bbl raise concerns about the commodity's potential to curb spending and worsen what is already expected to be a year of decelerating earnings growth. DJ30 -48.23 NASDAQ +5.38 SP500 -2.05 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1488/1531/2.05 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1799/1479/1.37 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $60; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(2-20-07) The lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) are maniacal as lunatics suckers �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic report/fed speak (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� rally into the close fueled by b**l s**t alone to end ridiculously higher to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 19.07, S&P up 4.14, and NASDAQ up 16.73, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down. Record home price slump. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Merck Suspends Lobbying for Vaccine
AP - Pediatricians, gynecologists and even health insurers all call Gardasil, the first vaccine to prevent cervical cancer, a big medical advance.

Hewlett-Packard 1Q Profit Up 26 Percent AP
Maytag Casting for New Ad Character
AP
Medtronic 3Q Profits Rise 6 Percent
AP
Savings Bank OAO Sberbank to Price Share
AP

What was initially shaping up to be a logical pullback, given last week's sizable market gains and the growing realization that earnings growth is decelerating, ended up turning into another victory for the bulls. While there wasn't overwhelming evidence Tuesday to justify follow-through buying efforts, especially with the Dow fresh off its 30th record close since October and turning in its best weekly performance (+1.5%) in three months, investors eventually rallied around some M&A news, another decline in oil, and an upbeat outlook from Wal-Mart (WMT 50.16 +1.68). The Dow component surged 3.5% after posting record Q4 sales and earnings and then forecasting Q1 profits at the high end of expectations. Wal-Mart's gain helped to offset a less than stellar year-end earnings report from Home Depot (HD 41.29 -0.15). Also helping the blue-chip index close at a historic high for the fourth straight session was a new all-time high on McDonald's (MCD 45.84 +0.52) and a 1% advance from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 43.21 +0.44) heading into its Q1 report after the close. Among the eight sectors finishing in positive territory, Consumer Discretionary (+0.7%) turned in the best performance. Retailers (RLX +1.0%), benefiting from Wal-Mart's upbeat outlook as well as Target (TGT 64.30 +1.39) surging 2.2% after backing February comps growth of 4-6%, also got a boost from lower oil prices. Crude for March delivery, which expired today, fell 2.2% to $58.07/bbl amid speculation warm weather forecasts will curb demand for heating oil. Crude for April delivery, the new front-month contract, fell 1.7% to $58.85/bbl. As evidenced by the AMEX Securities Broker / Dealer Index closing sharply higher and near record levels, some M&A news also made the rounds Wednesday. Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI 3.92 +0.22) and XM Satellite Radio (XMSR 15.41 +1.43) hooking up in an $11.4 bln "merger of equals" was the biggest announcement. Even though such a deal faces significant regulatory hurdles, the two companies soared on the news and combined to account for roughly one sixth of the total volume on the Nasdaq. DJ30 +19.07 DJTA +0.8% DJUA 0.5% DOT +0.6% NASDAQ +16.73 NQ100 +0.7% R2K +1.0% SOX +0.3% SP400 +0.7% SP500 +4.14 XOI -0.8% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1075/2011/2.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1296/2012/1.24 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $58; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(2-16-07) The lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) are maniacal as lunatics suckers �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic report/fed speak (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� rally into the close fueled by b**l s**t alone to end ridiculously mixed to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 2.56, S&P down 1.27, and NASDAQ down .79, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump; industrial production/utilization down.Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Miss. AG Seeks Legislation on State Farm
AP - Mississippi Attorney General Jim Hood said Friday he will seek legislation aimed at blocking State Farm Insurance Cos. from refusing to write new homeowners and commercial policies in the hurricane-battered state.

Motorola's Garriques Leaves for Dell Job AP
Home Building at Lowest Level Since '97
AP
Banco Bilbao Buying Compass Bancshares
AP
Campbell Soup 2Q Earnings Rise Sharply
AP

After three consecutive days of gains, stocks looked lethargic Friday, trading in a narrow range throughout the session before closing relatively unchanged. The bulls still put up a respectable fight, however, since the Dow in the closing minutes limped into the finish with its 30th record close since October. Among the biggest headlines stalling the market's momentum was Microsoft (MSFT 28.74 -0.72), which plunged after CEO Steve Ballmer spooked shareholders by saying analysts' sales estimates for Vista are "overly aggressive." Since the tech bellwether is one of only two stocks listed on all three major averages, Microsoft's 2.4% decline was a thorn in the market's side all day. Also overshadowing another day of M&A was an exaggerated decline in housing starts. AMR Corp. (AMR 38.97 +0.92), a suggested holding in our Active Portfolio, is reportedly being eyed as a takeover target by a group that includes Goldman Sachs (GS 216.92 +0.10) and British Airways (BAB 112.65 +0.02). It was also reported that General Motors (GM 36.34 -0.10) is in talks to buy the entire Chrysler Group (DCX 73.33 +3.08).  Just two days ago, Fed Chairman Bernanke said he sees economic growth strengthening somewhat as the drag from housing diminishes. However, a larger than expected 14.1% decline in January housing starts to 10-year lows, whether an aberration or not due to the volatile nature of the report, failed to provide further proof that the struggling housing sector has not bottomed out. The latest read on inflation at the wholesale level also hit the wires at 8:30 ET. Total PPI and core PPI matched economists' forecasts; but since the data won't alter inflation expectations, the report failed to provide investors with overwhelming evidence that pricing pressures are abating. The focus now turns to next week's more closely-watched CPI report. From a sector standpoint, Honeywell (HON 47.83 +0.26) becoming the third Dow component this week to announce a sizable share buyback kept the Industrials sector in focus. However, further consolidation in railroads and weakness in the aerospace group earmarked the influential sector as the day's worst performer. Oil prices surging 2.4% without any follow-through in energy stocks further underscored the market's cautious tone after such an impressive week for equities overall. DJ30 +2.56 NASDAQ -0.79 SP500 -1.27 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1307/1688/1.92 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1641/1637/1.33 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $59; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(2-15-07) The lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) are maniacal as lunatics suckers �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic report/fed speak (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� rally fueled by b**l s**t alone to end ridiculously higherto suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 23.15, S&P up 1.51, and NASDAQ up 8.72, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Industrial production/utilization down. Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrades, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Hershey Plans to Cut Work Force by 1,500
AP - The Hershey Co., whose name has been synonymous with U.S. candymaking for more than a century, is moving a bigger chunk of its production to Mexico.

Wyeth Wins Hormone Replacement Trial AP
Ga.'s Largest Newspaper Offers Buyouts
AP
Govt.: Air Passengers Have No Recourse
AP
Chrysler Cuts to Affect 8 More Plants
AP

After recouping all of last week's declines in one session (yesterday), leaving the major averages up more than 1.2% for the week and the Dow at historic highs, it wasn't surprising to see stocks look a bit tired throughout most of the session Thursday. Federal Chairman Bernanke was finishing up his second day of testimony to Congress and the day's scheduled economic data were a mixed bag. Be that as it may, the momentum fueled by diminishing fears of a possible rate hike kept sellers sidelined for one more day as the bulls held on to close the Dow at record levels for the 29th time since October. Caterpillar (CAT 67.62 +1.46) was the blue-chip index's best performer (+2.2%) as investors applauded its board's approval of a huge $7.5 bln stock buyback. Fellow Dow component Boeing (BA 91.71 +1.77) was another winner, surging 2.0% to an all-time high after confirming a UPS order for 27 freighters. The same couldn't be said for the rest of the Industrials sector, though, which finished relatively flat as an analyst downgrade on CSX Corp (CSX 40.75 -1.35) and mixed economic data left investors questioning valuations. Before the bell, the February NY Empire State Index rebounded from a 19-month low, which initially provided good news for the struggling manufacturing sector. However, an unexpected drop in January Industrial Production and a disappointing read on the Philly Fed survey acted as offsetting factors. Of the eight sectors closing higher, Consumer Staples paced the way. Wal-Mart (WMT 48.36 +0.49) surged 1.0% following reports that The Gates Foundation increased its stake about 50% to 1 mln shares last year. Anheuser-Busch (BUD 51.74 +1.51), which is reportedly in merger talks with InBev, also lent some support. Another defensive-minded sector providing leadership but inadvertently lending less conviction behind today's follow-through efforts was Health Care. HMOs were among today's best performing S&P industry groups (+2.7%) after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a stake in UnitedHealth Group (UNH 53.61 +1.97). Biotech was also in focus as billionaire investor Carl Icahn disclosing a 2.8 mln stake in MedImmunne (MEDI 33.16 +1.91) helped offset a Q4 earnings shortfall from Biogen Idec (BIIB 48.00 -2.49). Technology also provided some notable leadership, getting a lift from analyst upgrades on Qualcomm (QCOM 41.31 +1.65) and Network Appliance (NTAP 40.30 +1.89). After falling to as low as $56.65/bbl earlier (-2.3%), a late-day rally in oil closed the March contract relatively unchanged. While the market's resilience to the volatile trading in oil of late has been noteworthy, the fact that Energy failed to participate in paring any of its 1.0% intraday decline further underscored the lack of energy investors as a whole had after a healthy two-day sprint for the market. A Q4 earnings shortfall from Baker Hughes (BHI 65.26 -6.68), the day's worst performing S&P 500 constituent (-9.3%), also weighed on Energy. DJ30 +23.16 NASDAQ +8.72 SP500 +1.51 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1514/1522/1.98 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1352/1900/1.36 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $59; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(2-14-07) The lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) are still manic as lunatics suckers �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic report/fed speak (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� rally fueled by b**l s**t alone to end ridiculously higherto suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 87.01, S&P up 11.04, and NASDAQ up 28.50, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Retail numbers at best (I don�t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrades, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Chrysler Cutting 13,000 Jobs
AP - The next step for Chrysler in its quest to shed 13,000 workers and shrink its factory capacity is talks with the United Auto Workers union, where relations already are a bit strained.

Ex-Monster Exec Expected to Plead Guilty AP
Oil Prices Edge Up in Asian Trading
AP
Dell Taps Cannon to Head Global Division
AP
Merck to Pay IRS $2.3B in Tax Disputes
AP

Stocks rallied Wednesday as a lack of overly hawkish commentary from Fed Chairman Bernanke eased the worst of fears about a possible rate hike. Speaking before the Senate Banking Committee, Bernanke stated that "inflation pressures are beginning to diminish." He also said the Fed remains comfortable with rates at their current levels, easing recent concerns about the prospect of another rate hike and painting the goldilocks scenario the bulls were hoping for. While Bernanke didn't call for any policy easing, after also alluding to further rate hikes if pricing pressures fail to ease as expected, his overall upbeat tone on both the economy and cooling inflation pressures diminished the likelihood for a continued push higher on policy rates. Such a steady policy outlook, which is consistent with Briefing.com's assessment, renewed optimism about the market's growth prospects and fueled a rally in equities that closed all 10 sectors higher on the day and pushed several indices into uncharted territory. The Dow Jones Industrials, Transportation and Utilities Averages all finished at historic highs. From a sector standpoint, Industrials turned in the day's best performance. Bernanke noting "the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth" was the initial spark luring investors back to the economically-sensitive sector. Deere & Co (DE 111.91 +9.24) soared 9% to an historic high after handily topping Wall Street expectations and was the sector standout. Bernanke also attributing part of the "gradual ebbing of core inflation" to declines in oil prices allowed transports to take full advantage of a 1.7% sell-off in crude. CSX Corp (CSX 42.10 +2.73) surged 7% to an all-time high, getting an additional boost after announcing a $2 bln buyback, while an analyst upgrade gave FedEx (FDX 117.58 +4.04) an extra lift. The Energy sector's resilience in the face of oil's downturn further underscored the market's eagerness to own equities today. Crude for March delivery closed near $58/bbl after the Energy Dept. earlier showed that weekly inventories remain adequate to meet demand. Turning in the day's second best performance, though, was the even more influential Technology sector. After snapping an eight-day losing streak a day earlier, Microsoft (MSFT 29.40 +0.37) built on yesterday's gains to the tune of a 1.3% advance. Intel (INTC 21.14 +0.24), the only other stock listed on all three major averages, also turned in an impressive performance (+1.2%). Since higher interest rates spark valuation concerns among growth stocks, the Bernanke-induced rally in Treasuries pushing yields lower across the board also helped to restore confidence throughout the struggling tech sector.BTK +0.9% DJ30 +87.01 DJTA +2.1% DJUA +0.4% DOT +1.3% NASDAQ +28.50 NQ100 +1.8% R2K +0.2% SOX +2.1% SP400 +0.7% SP500 +11.04 XOI +0.5% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1250/1786/2.12 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1116/2161/1.46 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $59; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(2-13-07) The lunatic frauds on wall street are still manic as lunatics suckers �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic report/fed speak (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� rally fueled by b**l s**t alone to end ridiculously higherto suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 102.30, S&P up 10.89, and NASDAQ up 9.50, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 - $763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month�s improvement, and rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrades, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Mining Firms Reportedly Mull Alcoa Offer
AP - Alcoa Inc. is being targeted by two foreign mining giants who are each preparing $40 billion takeover bids for the aluminum producer, a British newspaper reported. Alcoa shares rose nearly 6 percent Tuesday although some analysts questioned whether such a deal was likely.

Dow Ends Up 102 on Alcoa Bid Speculation AP
KB Home Posts 4Q Loss
AP
Nasdaq Shares Plunge As LSE Bid Fails
AP
Judge Delays Caremark Shareholder Vote
AP

Stocks snapped a three-day losing streak Tuesday as a rumored takeover of a Dow component and upbeat analyst commentary gave investors some confidence to get back into the market. The day's biggest headline included Alcoa (AA 34.96 +2.06), which surged 6.3% amid reports that mining giants BHP Billiton (BHP 45.05 +1.04) and Rio Tinto (RTP 217.04 +6.61) are mulling separate impending buyout bids as high as $40 bln for the Dow component. The stock, which was up as much as 10% and accounted for a 25-point move on the Dow earlier, pared some of the gains intraday after Lehman dismissed the likelihood of a takeover. Nonetheless, the Alcoa news left many on Wall Street pricing in the likelihood of more blockbuster M&A deals, which gave a lift to brokerage stocks and played into our Overweight rating on Financials. Also providing a floor of support for the S&P 500's most influential sector were Banks. Dow components like Citigroup (C 53.68 +0.25) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM 50.96 +0.52) advanced after Merrill Lynch said concerns over sub-prime mortgage exposure are "overblown." Providing further evidence that valuations are reasonable at current levels and temporarily silencing talk of a possible market correction was 3M Co. (MMM 76.33 +1.74). The stock turned in the day's second best performance (+2.3%) on the Dow after announcing plans to repurchase $7 bln in company stock over the next two years. Staying in the Industrials sector, the ability of transportation stocks to look past a 2.0% surge in oil prices was also noteworthy. Railroads was one of today's best performing S&P industry groups after Bear Stearns cited greater operating efficiencies and a more diversified freight mix as reasons to keep riding the rails. With regard to oil, crude for March delivery closed at $58.97/bbl after the I.E.A. raised its 2007 forecast for global oil consumption. While higher energy prices are bearish for the economy, and may garner added attention in Fed Chairman Bernanke's semi-annual meeting over the next two days, prices merely rebounding from Monday's 4.0% sell-off provided enough subsequent leadership in the beaten-down Energy sector to act as an offset. As a reminder, policy makers removed the "impetus from energy prices" as an inflation risk from their most recent FOMC statement (Jan. 31). Another sector providing notable leadership was Consumer Discretionary. Comcast (CMCSA 41.00 +1.02) was the biggest source of sector support, as news that its closest rival, Time Warner Cable, going public lent some validation to the health of the growing cable business. General Motors (GM 36.64 +0.93) surging 2.6% to a new 52-week high after being upgraded to Buy from Sell at Merrill Lynch was another sector bright spot and contributed to the Dow's first 100-point advance this month. BTK -0.1% DJ30 +102.30 DJTA +1.5% DJUA +0.4% DOT +0.5% NASDAQ +9.50 NQ100 +0.3% R2K +0.7% SOX +0.5% SP400 +0.9% SP500 +10.89 XOI +1.5% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1191/1818/1.86 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 954/2338/1.34 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $59; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(2-12-07) The lunatics on wall street are still manic as lunatics suckers �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic report/fed speak (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� rally into the close fueled by b**l s**t alone to end modestly lower relative to reality to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average down 28.28, S&P down 4.69, and NASDAQ down 9.44, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Comair and Pilots Union Reach Agreement
AP - Comair and the union representing its pilots reached a tentative agreement Tuesday, forestalling a plan by the regional airline to impose wage cuts and other concessions.

Home Depot Considers Sale of HD Supply AP
Boeing Unveils Modified 767 Aircraft
AP
Dow Ends Down 28 As Investors Await Data
AP
Four Seasons to Go Private in $3.4B Deal
AP

The selling continued Monday as investors weighed ongoing uncertainty about Fed policy and the collapse of some noteworthy M&A deals against a sell-off in oil. Per usual for a Monday, there was some acquisition news to digest. Home Depot (HD 41.48 +0.48) mulling the spin-off, IPO, or even a sale of its HD Supply unit had the Dow component up as much as 2.5% at one point. Vodaphone (VOD 29.53 +0.58) won a majority stake in Hutchison Essar for $11.1 bln. Hindalco Industries agreed to buy Alcan spin-off Novelis (NVL 43.67 +5.13) for $6 bln -- a sizable 16% premium on top of two weeks of takeover speculation. However, reports that Sanofi-Aventis (SNY 44.29 +0.51) called off merger talks with Bristol-Myers (BMY 27.59 -0.93) and that the Nasdaq (NDAQ 35.10 -2.10) failed again to get shareholder approval for its hostile takeover of the London Stock Exchange left investors questioning valuations and the market's weakening fundamentals. Stocks running virtually unabated since July of last year, without any real setback, has raised concerns that a correction is coming; worries that we believe will make it difficult for any sustained move to the upside in the near-term. Market participants also erred on the side of caution as they awaited clues about the interest rate outlook. All eyes this week will be on Fed Chairman Bernanke as he goes before the Senate and House Committees Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, to provide his semi-annual testimony on the economy and monetary policy. As a reminder, now that 75% of S&P 500 constituents have reported quarterly results, the focus has shifted from Q4 earnings to the general economic outlook. On a positive note, oil prices plunged 4.0% and closed near $57.50/bbl after briefly eclipsing the psychologically important $60/bbl mark on Friday. Crude for March delivery was initially under pressure after the Saudi oil minister suggested production cuts may not be necessary; but the commodity's decline was exacerbated by this year's biggest one-day decline (-7.6%) in natural gas futures. As one might expect, the oil price retreat weighed on the Energy sector, which was the day's worst-performing economic sector with a loss of 1.20%. BTK -1.0% DJ30 -28.28 DJTA +0.4% DJUA -0.1% DOT -0.4% NASDAQ -9.44 NQ100 -0.4% R2K -0.1% SOX -1.0% SP400 -0.3% SP500 -4.69 XOI -1.3% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1740/1326/1.87 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2004/1259/1.26 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $57; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(2-09-07) Late stages of waning full moon and the lunatics on wall street are still manic as lunatics suckers �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic report/fed speak (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� rally into the close fueled by b**l s**t alone to end modestly lower relative to reality to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average down 56.80, S&P down 10.25, and NASDAQ down 28.85, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Comair Delays Pilots' Concessions
AP - Comair delayed its plan to implement wage cuts and other concessions on its pilots Friday after receiving a new contract proposal from the pilots' union, a spokeswoman for the regional airline said.

BP CEO Must Give Deposition About Blast AP
Romance Novels Star (Your Name Here)
AP
Oil Prices Briefly Top $60 a Barrel
AP
Cartoon Network Head Resigns After Scare
AP

What was initially shaping up to be just another sluggish day of vacillating around the unchanged mark, like stocks had been doing throughout most of the week, actually became quite a disappointment for the bulls. There were no economic releases on the calendar Friday and there were no big earnings reports of note. However, with oil prices eclipsing the $60/bbl mark going into another cold weekend and interest rates on the rise following some hawkish Fed speak, the stage was set for the bears to keep their eyes peeled for a catalyst to finally work off some of the sizable gains endured a week earlier that were already coming under scrutiny. Then, just as the afternoon session got under way, sellers hungry to lock in profits found the news they deemed necessary to keep buyers sidelined into the close. Albeit not a tech bellwether, Micron Technology (MU 12.54 -0.35) saying it sees memory chip prices plunging 30-40% this quarter sent a shockwave through a tech sector already vulnerable. Just look at the lack of follow through from Cisco Systems' (CSCO 27.71 -0.43) upbeat report earlier in the week. While Cisco boosting its sales outlook two days ago offered some reassurance about tech's growth prospects, especially following lowered guidance of late, Micron dangling another piece of uncertainty exacerbated the market's underlying skepticism about the sector's profit potential. Since higher interest rates spark valuation concerns among growth stocks as well, Treasuries consolidating a week's worth of gains took an added toll on a tech sector slated to be one of the biggest profit drivers this year. The 10-year note yield rose to 4.78% after several Fed officials further diminished hopes of a rate cut anytime soon. As one might expect, the increase in borrowing costs also had an adverse impact on the rate-sensitive Financials sector. As a reminder, Financials are expected to provide about 8% of the anticipated 11% growth in aggregate Q4 earnings for the S&P 500. In the end, the two most influential sectors of all -- Financials and Tech -- turning in the worst performances of the day was too much for a diminishing group of buyers to overcome. BTK -0.7% DJ30 -56.80 DJTA -0.7% DJUA +0.2% DOT -1.3% NASDAQ -28.85 NQ100 -1.4% R2K -1.1% SOX -1.4% SP400 -0.7% SP500 -10.25 XOI -0.7% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2013/1038/2.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2303/970/1.59 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $59; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(2-08-07) Late stages of waning full moon and the lunatics on wall street are still manic as lunatics suckers �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic report/fed speak (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� rally into the close fueled by b**l s**t alone to end modestly lower relative to reality to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average down 29.24, S&P down 1.71, and NASDAQ down 1.83, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). HSBC Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Engineer: GPS Shoes Make People Findable
AP - Isaac Daniel calls the tiny Global Positioning System chip he's embedded into a line of sneakers "peace of mind." He wishes his 8-year-old son had been wearing them when he got a call from his school in 2002 saying the boy was missing.

Kodak Snapping Off 3,000 More Jobs AP
Big Windfalls From YouTube, Google Pact
AP
Oil Prices Spike on Iran, Cold Weather
AP
China Launches Review of Drug Industry
AP

Stocks closed slightly lower Thursday as uncertainty about decelerating profit growth resurfaced to keep the market in a period of consolidation following last week's sizable market gains. Even though the bulk of earnings season is now in the rearview mirror, the market's foreword thinking mentality couldn't help but weigh the ramifications of renewed concerns within the mortgage lending business, especially the potential impact on earnings for the S&P 500's most influential sector. As a reminder, Q4 earnings may be up about 11%, but broader weakness is being masked by extremely strong profit growth from Financials. In fact, without its estimated 8% contribution in aggregate earnings growth, Q4 profit growth for the S&P 500 stands at an unimpressive 3%. Last night, HSBC Holdings (HBC 89.78 -2.44), the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt will be some 20% higher than previously thought. That news weighed heavily on mortgage lenders and, in turn, provided a reason to lock in gains throughout Financials, removing key leadership for the broader market. Exacerbated worries about the sub-prime lending market aside, economic data have suggested that weakness in housing has yet to spill over into the general economy. Be that as it may, the fact that even luxury home builders are now running into trouble took an added toll on sentiment. Toll Brothers (TOL 33.39 -1.04) plunged 3% after following up a 33% drop in Q1 orders by saying full-year write-downs will "significantly exceed" forecasts. That news made matters even worse for last year's second worst performing S&P industry group. Homebuilders plunged 21% in 2006 while today's 2.7% decline provided an extra reason to consolidate gains from this year's second-best performing sector -- Consumer Discretionary. Discretionary was also in focus today as a plethora of retailers announced same-stores sales results for January. The final tally showed that about two-thirds of retailers topped analysts' expectations, and some companies like Federated Departed Stores (FD 42.86 +1.54) and Gap Inc (GPS 19.75 +0.50) offered some encouraging news about Q4 earnings. However, disappointments from large retailers like Costco (COST 56.62 -0.51), which posted its slowest comps growth since November 2002, and Family Dollar (FDO 32.11 -1.14) left investors less than impressed about what was expected to be a strong month for almost every retailer. Of the six sectors trading lower, though, Industrials turned in the day's worst performance. General Electric (GE 35.74 -0.36) fell nearly 1.0% amid reports that News Corp. (NWS 25.28 +0.58), a suggested holding in Briefing.com Active Portfolio, plans to launch a long-awaited business news channel in the fall that will compete directly with GE's CNBC. Aerospace & Defense was also in focus after Northrop Grumman (NOC 74.39 +0.76) saying it will bid on a $40 bln Air Force contract no longer left rival Boeing (BA 89.52 -0.83) as the only bidder. Waste Management (WMI 35.35 -3.06), though, was the sector's worst performer (-8.0%) after posting a 15% drop in Q4 earnings. While the market overall continues to show surprising resilience in the face of higher energy prices, economically-sensitive areas like transportation were not as fortunate, which also weighed on Industrials. Crude for March delivery surged late in the day following reports of a fire at California's biggest gas field. The commodity closed up 3.6% near $59.70/bbl -- its highest level of the year, providing a lift to the Energy sector but not enough to act as an offset from a leadership standpoint. BTK +0.7% DJ30 -29.24 DJTA -0.6% DJUA +0.6% NASDAQ -1.83 SOX -0.5% SP500 -1.71 XOI +1.1% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1544/1485/2.02 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1738/1518/1.55 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $59; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(2-07-07) Late stages of waning full moon and the lunatics on wall street are still manic as lunatics suckers �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic report/fed speak (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� rally fueled by b**l s**t alone continues to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up .56, S&P up 2.02, and NASDAQ up 19.01, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, deficits trade/budget, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

ECB Poised to Keep Interest Rates Steady
AP - The European Central Bank will likely hold interest rates steady Thursday, waiting to see if its latest increase can stem inflation, but it is expected to prepare the markets for another move in March.

Mobile ESPN to Relaunch Through Verizon AP
Kodak on Track to Finish 4-Year Overhaul
AP
Satyam Launches China Development Center
AP
Prudential More Than Doubles 4Q Profit
AP

The major averages closed in positive territory again; but the blue-chip indices saw little conviction on the part of buyers since much of the market's attention was directed at the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Investors weighed upbeat news in the recently beaten-down Tech sector and tame inflation data against an underlying sense that the market is still overbought on short-term basis. The day's biggest headliner was Cisco Systems (CSCO 28.09 +0.81). The tech bellwether, which is also a suggested holding in the Briefing.com Active Portfolio, kicked things off in fine fashion last night after topping Wall Street expectations with a 40% rise in Q2 profits. More notably, Cisco also raising its Q3 and Q4 sales guidance renewed optimism in the sector's growth prospects, especially since several tech companies have lowered guidance of late. However, while Cisco's news had a ripple effect throughout the market early in the session, so much so that the bulls pushed the Dow into unchartered territory, concerns over overbought conditions crept back into the market late in the day to close the Dow and S&P 500 just barely in the green. Just before 11:00 ET, the Dow eclipsed the 12,700 level for the first time ever, actually benefiting from a reversal in crude futures following a bearish oil inventories data. The commodity was up as much as 1.6% and making another run at $60/bbl ahead of the report. However, after failing to break above the psychological $60/bbl barrier for a third straight session, crude for March delivery plunged 2% and closed 3.6% off its intraday highs at $57.71/bbl. Albeit only accounting for a 10% weighting on the S&P 500, the Energy sector tumbling in sympathy with the sell-off in oil, without much evidence of investment dollars rotating into other areas, exacerbated this week's already underlying cautious tone going into the close. Fortunately for the bulls, one of the other sectors attracting buyers was also the most influential of all, Financials. REITs were among the day's best performers again, this time after Equity Office (EOP 55.45 -0.60) shareholders approved Blackstone's sweetened takeover bid. Vornado Realty Trust (VNO 135.59 +8.59) was the sector's best performer (+6.8%) as its shareholders applauded Vornado's decision to withdraw its riskier offer just hours before the vote. Lincoln National Corp. (LNC 70.41 +2.01) posting a 69% rise in Q4 profits as revenue nearly doubled further supported our Overweight rating on a rate-sensitive Financials that got an added boost from falling bond yields. With the Fed asserting in its latest policy statement that "the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain inflation pressures," today's preliminary read on Q4 productivity was also reassuring, even for bond traders. At 8:30 ET, the Labor Dept. showed that productivity rose a stronger than expected 3.0% in Q4. Unit labor costs rose just 1.7%, after rising at a 3.2% rate in Q3, pushing the year-over-year increase to 2.8%. That follows a 2.9% rate in Q3 and 3.0% rate in Q2, a declining trend that won't necessarily put to rest concerns at the Fed about the implications of a tight labor market, but it eased the worst of fears that wage-based inflation pressures are building. DJ30 +0.56 DJTA +0.3% DOT +1.0% NASDAQ +19.01 NQ100 +1.0% R2K +0.7% SOX +1.6% SP400 +0.4% SP500 +2.02 XOI -0.5% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1167/1866/2.20 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1385/1861/1.40 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $57; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(2-06-07) Waning full moon and the lunatics on wall street are still manic as lunatics suckers �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic report/fed speak (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� rally to as the wall street fraud continues to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 4.57, S&P up 1.01, and NASDAQ up .89, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, deficits trade/budget, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Budget Would Halt Some Land Conservation
AP - President Bush's proposed budget would put a land conservation program that protects some 35 million acres on hold in favor of boosting corn production to meet the growing demand for ethanol.

Cisco's 2Q Profit Surges 40 Percent AP
Army Confirms Security Contract in Iraq
AP
Indonesia Signs Bird Flu Vaccine Deal
AP
Homeowners in Katrina Lawsuits Get Paid
AP

For a second straight day, stocks looked lethargic as the lack of catalysts this week continues to leave investors indecisive about the sustainability of last week's impressive rally. While the absence of potentially troubling economic data cleared way for the bulls to build on recent market gains right out of the gate, renewed concerns about Tech's growth prospects, oil prices making another run at $60/bbl intraday, and some apprehension ahead of several speeches from Fed officials underpinned a sense of caution throughout the session. Even with Fed Chairman Bernanke's testimony out of the way around 1:30 ET, which made no mention of interest rates or the economy, investors struggled to find much incentive to get back into a market ripe for a pullback on the heels of the S&P 500's best weekly performance since August. Of the five sectors closing higher, Utilities turned in the best performance as falling bond yields made dividend-paying stocks more attractive. The Dow Jones Utilities Index was up for the seventh straight day and closed at an all-time high. The yield on the 10-year note fell four basis points to 4.76% after this week's first refunding auction garnered surprisingly strong demand from foreign central banks. The $16 bln 3-year note auction drew a solid 2.97 bid-to-cover with indirect bidder participation checking in at 32.3%, the biggest share since May 2005. The rate-sensitive and much more influential Financials sector, though, provided the bulk of market support that merely helped the S&P 500 claw back after falling for the first time in five days. REITs were among the day's best performers after Blackstone raised its all-cash offer for Equity Office Properties (EOP 55.95 +0.49) to $39 bln. Investors also applauded MGIC Investment's (MTG 70.00 +7.07) decision to acquire Radian Group (RDN 66.54 +5.70) for $4.9 bln in stock while an analyst upgrade on State Street (STT 68.21 +1.13) gave Asset Managers a boost. Providing additional sector support was Principal Financial Group (PFG 63.03 +0.79), which closed at an all-time higher after posting a 15% rise in Q4 profits. However, another strong profit report within the sector also served as a reminder that, without an estimated 8% contribution in aggregate earnings growth from Financials, Q4 profit growth for the S&P 500 stands at an unimpressive 3%. Among the five sectors losing ground, Technology was the day's most influential laggard. A Q3 revenue warning from National Semiconductor (NSM 22.71 -0.61) Monday night gave investors another reason to rotate out of semiconductor stocks. A change of heart regarding tonight's Q2 report from Cisco Systems (CSCO 27.28 -0.23), which was up 1.0% earlier in anticipation of a solid report from the tech bellwether, also took away what little momentum stocks were exhibiting early on. Energy was another disappointment as the sector failed to benefit from a late-day rebound in crude. Even with oil prices near their highest levels of the year, Anadarko Petroleum's (APC 42.40 -0.55) Q4 shortfall offset a 3.5% surge in Grant-Prideco (GRP 40.88 +1.37). The latter is a suggested holding in Briefing.com's Active Portfolio and it handily topped Wall Street forecasts and issued upside FY07 EPS guidance. BTK -0.2% DJ30 +4.57 DJUA +0.8% NASDAQ +0.89 NQ100 -0.1% R2K +0.4% SOX -0.5% SP400 0.5% SP500 +1.01 XOI -0.5% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1323/1673/2.14 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1197/2087/1.42 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $59; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(2-05-07) Waning full moon and the lunatics on wall street are still manic as lunatics suckers �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic report/fed speak (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� rally to end mixed as the wall street fraud continues to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 8.25, S&P down 1.40 and NASDAQ down 5.28, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, deficits trade/budget, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Toyota Reports 7.3 Pct. Rise in Profit
AP - Toyota, hot on the heels of General Motors to become the world's No. 1 automaker, reported a 7.3 percent jump in quarterly profit Tuesday on booming sales in North America and Europe that offset sluggish demand in Japan.

Home Depot Gives Group a Board Seat AP
Japan Airlines Reports $90M Loss in 3Q
AP
Dow Gains 8, Nasdaq Drops 5 on New Deals
AP
Lear Gets Offer From Icahn Affiliate
AP

The S&P 500 snapped a four-day winning streak Monday as M&A activity, a reversal in oil, and reassurance about the pace of economic growth weren't enough to completely sideline sellers questioning the sustainability of the market's recent gains. Last week, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq surged 1.6% on average. With the broader market turning in its best weekly performance (+1.8%) since last August, it wasn't surprising to see investors exhibiting some sense of trepidation today. Several Fed officials slated to give speeches this week, with Fed Chairman Bernanke talking tomorrow afternoon, also played into the lack of conviction on the part of both buyers and sellers, especially with earnings season winding down and no big reports today to drive the market. The Dow clung to a small gain, but that was due in large part to a nearly 2.0% surge in shares of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 42.81 +0.74). Investors applauded H-P's decision to strengthen its competitive position with the acquisition of Bristol Technologies. Wal-Mart (WMT 48.52 +0.44) estimating that January same-store sales will be up 2.2%, above the high end of its 1-2% guidance, also helped to offset a 1.9% decline in Microsoft (MSFT 29.61 -0.58), the day's worst performing Dow component. Microsoft fell after Barron's said future Vista sales may not justify the stock price at current levels. Nine out of 10 sectors closed lower, but the biggest disappointments coming from two of the least influential economic sectors also underscored why the S&P 500 and Nasdaq weren't down more. The day's best performing sector was Utilities; but its 1.0% gain merely spoke to the market's defensive stance since it too is among the lowest weighted sectors in the S&P 500. On a positive note, some M&A activity making headlines played into our Overweight rating on Financials and our belief that stock valuations remain reasonable. Triad Hospitals (TRI 49.70 +6.43) agreed to a $6.4 bln private equity buyout, State Street (STT 67.30 -4.45) is buying Investors Financial (IFIN 59.80 +12.85) for $4.5 bln, and billionaire financier Carl Icahn made a $2.4 bln bid for Lear Corp (LEA 38.70 +4.03). Since none of today's deals were blockbusters by any means, investors continued to err on the side of caution. Also, crude for March delivery came within a nickel of hitting $60/bbl early in the session but closed well off its highs (+1.6%) and below $59/bbl. Oil eclipsing such a psychological barrier will become a bearish factor for stocks and bring its inflationary potential back into focus among policy makers. Nonetheless, subsequent deterioration throughout the Energy sector acted as an offset as investors settled into a holding pattern until presented with more notable catalysts to set a definitive tone to a market that looked ripe for a pullback. Separately, investors got some comforting news about the pace of economic growth from the services sector, especially after the weak 49.3 read on manufacturing conditions reported last week. The January ISM survey of national services companies came in with a reading of 59.0, the highest level since May. Nonetheless, since the services sector is so steady, the report did little to ease underlying concerns about the Fed cutting rates anytime soon. DJ30 +8.25 NASDAQ -5.28 SP500 -1.40 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1739/1302/1.95 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1808/1459/1.40 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $59; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(2-02-07) Blazing full moon and the lunatics on wall street are manic as lunatics suckers �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic report/fed speak (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� rally to end mixed as the wall street fraud continues to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average down 20.19, S&P up 2.45 and NASDAQ up 7.50, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, deficits trade/budget, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Stocks End Mixed on Lackluster Jobs Data
AP - Wall Street ended a strong week narrowly mixed Friday after the market absorbed a weaker-than-expected employment report that curbed investors' bullish sentiment following three days of straight gains.

Chevy to Air Teen's Ad During Super Bowl AP
Louis Vuitton Sued Over Travel Bags
AP
Bolivian Protesters Shut Down Pipeline
AP
Beijing Limits Foreign Home Ownership
AP

The major averages finished in split fashion Friday, indicative of the divide among investors as to what today's encouraging employment data mean for Fed policy. Before the bell, the Labor Dept. showed that only 111,000 nonfarm payrolls were added in January. Since that was weaker than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for all of 2006, some investors viewed the news as bearish. Throw in the Dow closing at record levels for a fifth time this year a day earlier and the S&P 500 on pace for its best weekly performance since August and a sense that blue chips may be overbought at current levels offered sellers an excuse to take some money off the table. The Dow snapped a three-day winning streak. Be that as it may, looking beyond the headline read of lower payrolls did in fact show that the Fed is doing a surprisingly good job of managing a soft landing for the economy. Upon further analysis, an upward revision to previous data left the December figure at a strong 206,000, which equates to an additional 39,000 jobs. Add that to a January figure that is also likely to be revised higher, and the net two-month gain was exactly what the economists' January forecast of 150,000 assumed. With investors now more preoccupied with inflation than the pace of economic growth, the report's hourly earnings component garnered even closer attention. To the market's surprise, average hourly earnings rose just 0.2%, following a downward revision to the previous month, and lowered the year/year gain to 4.0%. That was good news since it does not reflect the inflationary wage pressures that the Fed remains concerned about, as evidenced by their continued focus on "the high level of resource utilization." Nonetheless, more evidence that the economy remains on a good growth path also did little to renew optimism about the Fed cutting rates anytime soon. Thus, with policy makers still exhibiting a tightening bias -- a fundamental shift from the point of view that helped stocks rally in the second half of 2006, it was not surprising to see a lack of conviction on the part of both buyers and sellers. The market's resilience of late to rising energy prices was noteworthy. A late-day rally closed the March crude contract up 3.1% and at its highest levels for the year ($59.10/bbl); but since policy makers now believe that the "impetus from energy prices" has been reduced so much that there was no mention of it whatsoever in the Fed's recent FOMC statement, oil's inflationary potential was somewhat muted. The Energy sector's failure to take full advantage of oil's extended upturn, however, posed a problem from a leadership standpoint as Energy's modest 0.4% gain was only outdone by Telecom and Utilities -- two of the least influential sectors on the S&P 500. As evidenced by the Nasdaq turning in the day's best performance among the majors, Technology attracted modest buying interest, but not even enough to offset Thursday's pullback. In fact, had it not been for a 2.0% surge in shares of Cisco Systems (CSCO 27.14 +0.55) following upbeat analyst commentary, the tech-heavy Composite might have also succumbed to some modest consolidation heading into the weekend. BTK +0.1% DJ30 -20.19 DJTA +0.2% DJUA +0.8% DOT +0.9% NASDAQ +7.50 NQ100 +0.4% R2K +0.2% SOX +0.9% SP400 +0.3% SP500 +2.45 XOI -0.3% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1356/1648/1.92 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1386/1869/1.41 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $59; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(2-01-07) Blazing full moon and the lunatics don�t disappoint as lunatics suckers �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic report/fed speak (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� rally as the wall street fraud continues to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 51.99, S&P up 7.70 and NASDAQ up 4.45, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Negative savings rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories highest since last crash, defaults up, deficits trade/budget, GM and Ford sales down 16% and 19%, dollar down and going lower.....but no problemo if you�re a lunatic fraud on wall street. Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Minimum Wage Bill Heads to Negotiations
AP - Republicans are warning Democrats not to tamper with Senate-passed minimum wage legislation, saying the bill's mix of $8.3 billion in tax breaks and a $2.10 an hour wage hike offers the right economic and political balance.

Maytag Recalls 2.3 Million Dishwashers AP
Group Opens 'Terror-Free' Gas Station
AP
Oil Prices Rebound in Asian Trading
AP
Strike Shuts Down Harley-Davidson Plant
AP

 

The Stock Trader's Almanac states that, "as the S&P goes in January, so goes the year." Well, with the S&P 500 briefly slipping into negative territory for 2007 last Friday but rallying into the end of the month to finish up 1.4%, that momentum carried over into Thursday's session, jumpstarting what is historically a flat month for equities. Strong leadership from several key sectors, especially Industrials, contributed to the bullish disposition that left the Dow at a new record high. Raytheon (RTN 52.55 +0.65) becoming the second defense contractor in as many days to post strong Q4 results prompted follow-through buying in Boeing (BA 91.05 +1.49). The Dow component surged 1.7% to a new all-time high. More notable was the economically-sensitive sector's ability to look past a discouraging update about manufacturing conditions. The January ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.3%, indicating contraction, which ran counter to a Fed directive that showed firming economic growth a day earlier. The disappointment initially left investors questioning the validity of Wednesday's rally that we still believe was overdone considering the Fed's continued talk about tightening. Be that as it may, investors eventually rallied around an earlier report that reinforced the Fed's view of moderating inflation pressures. Before the bell, the Commerce Dept. reported only a 0.1% rise in the core PCE deflator -- the Fed's favored inflation measure. While the January data left the year/year increase steady at 2.2%, still probably above where the Fed would like to see it, the rate of increase slowing over the last three months offered some added relief on the market's current focus -- inflation. The Industrials sector's best performer, though, was American Standard (ASD 53.14 +3.75), which soared more than 7% to a record high after posting a 77% rise in Q4 earnings and saying it will split into three different businesses. The Dow Jones Transportation Average eclipsing the 5,000 mark for the first time since May, getting a boost from falling oil prices, provided additional support Industrials. With regard to crude, the Energy sector's resilience in the face of a 1.4% pullback in oil was also noteworthy. After surging nearly 8% over the last two days, crude for March delivery closed lower at $57.30/bbl in sympathy with a decline in natural gas futures following bearish supply data. Exxon Mobil (XOM 75.08 +0.98) said that it earned $39.5 bln in 2006, the largest profit ever for a U.S. company. Valero Energy (VLO 56.03 +1.75), which also handily topped Wall Street expectations, got an additional lift as it weighed the possible sale of an Ohio refinery. The Financials sector also showed its buoyancy, as an increase in borrowing costs was overshadowed by Lehman Brothers' (LEH 85.04 +2.80) plan to buy back nearly 20% of its stock. Of the two sectors trading lower, the absence of leadership from Technology was the only reason the indices didn't turn in an even better performance. Google (GOOG 481.75 -19.75) failed to impress shareholders with a report that still showed Q4 profits nearly tripled. A change in sentiment as to what Michael Dell's return as CEO to the company that bears his name -- Dell (DELL 23.80 -0.42) -- also weighed on the influential sector. BTK +1.3% DJ30 +51.99 DJTA +1.7% DJUA 0.8% DOT +0.6% NASDAQ +4.45 NQ100 -0.1% R2K +0.9% SOX +0.8% SP400 +0.9% SP500 +7.70 XOI +1.3% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1086/1952/2.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 881/2405/1.66 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $57; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(1-31-07) Lunatics suckers �bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic report/fed speak (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)� rally into the close as the wall street fraud continues to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 98.38, S&P up 9.42, and NASDAQ up 15.29, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Fake economic growth report from the administration. Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Google 4Q Earnings Nearly Triple
AP - Google Inc.'s fourth-quarter profit nearly tripled as the online search engine leader once again sprinted past analyst expectations, but the breathtaking growth still wasn't enough to propel its high-flying stock to new heights.

U.S. Lags on Family-Oriented Job Rules AP
Lawsuit Claims Airline Freight Price-Fix
AP
Michael Dell Returns to CEO Role at Dell
AP
Starbucks 1Q Earnings Up Nearly 18 Pct.
AP

Stocks rallied Wednesday as investors embraced further evidence that the Fed is doing a remarkably good job of managing a soft landing for the economy... so far. The Dow finished within a point of record levels, the S&P 500 closed out its eighth straight month of gains while the Russell 2000 and S&P 400 MidCap closed at historic highs. Per usual, all eyes were fixed on today's FOMC meeting. As expected, policy makers left rates unchanged at 5.25% for a fifth straight time; but the policy statement carried some added risk. The market has been pricing in an increasingly hawkish stance for a few weeks ago now, and a stronger than expected advance read on Q4 GDP did little to change things. While a rebound to 3.5% growth from 2.0% in Q3 dispels the worst of recession fears, suggesting the economy is back on trend, the GDP report further diminished the chance of the Fed easing anytime soon. Today's Fed statement further echoed such improbability, as the directive reflected a continued leaning toward a rate hike rather than lowering rates. Oil prices tacking a 2.1% gain onto yesterday's 5.5% surge, marking the biggest two-day gain since December 2004, as well as the Energy sector's inability to take full advantage with a paltry 0.2% advance, also lent less conviction behind today's reaction to the Fed.   Be that as it may, a market hungry for some upbeat news since earnings season so far has been uninspiring, market participants rallied around proof that the economy is firming, not slowing. The removal of "substantial" to describe the slowdown in housing and addition of "stabilization" was also greeted with enthusiasm, as was the phrase, "Readings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months," which excluded the word "elevated" from the last meeting. Of the 10 sectors that closed higher, Industrials provided the bulk of upside leadership. While signs of a "goldilocks" economy certainly gave the group an added boost in afternoon trading, the economically-sensitive sector was already applauding a blowout quarter from Dow component Boeing (BA 89.56 +3.56). With the percentage of companies reporting profits 10% or more above expectations has dropped sharply, Boeing more than doubling Q4 profits and raising its FY07 guidance was also welcoming news for a market struggling to keep buying efforts on track after such a huge run-up in the second half of 2006. BTK -0.1% DJ30 +98.38 DJTA +2.7% DJUA +0.2% DOT +1.0% NASDAQ +15.29 NQ100 +0.8% R2K +0.3% SOX -0.4% SP400 0.7% SP500 +9.42 XOI 0.5% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1331/1718/2.21 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1068/2213/1.58 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $56; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(1-30-07) Lunatics suckers bear market/higher oil prices rally into the close as the wall street fraud continues to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 32.53, S&P up 8.20, and NASDAQ up 7.55, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Tokyo, NYSE Complete Alliance Talks
AP - Negotiations for an alliance between the Tokyo and New York stock exchanges have been completed, Japan's main bourse said Wednesday. An announcement of the results of the talks will be made at a joint news conference Wednesday morning in New York, the Tokyo Stock Exchange said in a statement.

Merck, Wyeth Shares Fall After Reports AP
Dow Ends Up 33 As Investors Await Fed
AP
Icahn Seeks Seat on Motorola Board
AP
P&G, Colgate Post Double-Digit Increases AP

Considering the breadth of disappointments on the earnings front and soaring prices across the energy complex ahead of a plethora of economic data that also includes an update on monetary policy, stocks actually held up rather well Tuesday. As evidenced by the S&P 500 turning in a better performance than the Dow and Nasdaq, it's not surprising to see just how big of an impact renewed enthusiasm for beaten-down oil stocks had on the day's action. All of the Energy sector's 33 components closed sharply higher, led by a 1.6% gain in shares of the broader market's most heavily-weighted name -- Exxon Mobil (XOM 74.36 +1.16). Explorers, among the biggest beneficiaries of soaring natural gas prices (+11%), was the day's best performing S&P industry group (+3.4%). Crude for March delivery surged 5.4%, the biggest one-day move since Hurricane Katrina, to close near $57/bbl. The rally was sparked by reports of below-normal temperatures and news that Saudi Arabia will reduce daily production by another 158,000 barrels beginning Thursday. It is also worth noting that even as policy makers said at their last meeting (Dec. 12) that "inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, reflecting reduced impetus from energy prices," the front-month crude contract closed that day near $61/bbl. Since that is still 7% higher than where it closed today, it didn't appear investors were too concerned about the Fed tweaking that portion of tomorrow's closely-watched policy directive. While the market was pricing in the likelihood of a Fed easing in early 2007, there's also an argument that such a rate cut may jeopardize the Fed's credibility and subsequently renew recession worries. Thus, since the Fed needs to talk tough on inflation-fighting, it is Briefing.com's belief that tomorrow's policy statement will connote a continued bias towards tightening and that the market has been getting a little over-anxious about the possibility of the Fed's next move being a rate hike. Of the 10 sectors closing to the upside, Energy paced the way, more than halving its 4.0% year-to-date decline. Telecom and Health Care ranked second and third, in part due to their defensive characteristics. Some reprieve in the credit markets helped the rate-sensitive Financials sector recoup the 0.5% it lost a day earlier. Technology also provided some influential leadership after Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 43.10 +0.68) tacked a 1.6% gain onto yesterday's 1.9% advance while Motorola (MOT 19.55 +1.24) soared nearly 7% following confirmation of Carl Icahn's 1.4% ownership stake and pursuit of a board seat. Even Industrials inched into the plus column going into the close, as average gains of about 2% from Caterpillar (CAT 62.89 +1.19), Honeywell (HON 45.13 +0.90) and United Technologies (UTX 66.86 +1.17) helped to offset a 5% sell-off in fellow Dow component 3M Co (MMM 74.89 -4.07). The latter missed Wall Street expectations and said 2007 profits may fall below estimates. UPS (UPS 71.73 -1.92), an even better barometer of the economy, plunged as much as 4.4% intraday after it warned domestic growth could slow in 2007 but closed down 2.6%. BTK +0.5% DJ30 +32.53 DJTA +0.5% DJUA +0.5% DOT +0.3% NASDAQ +7.55 NQ100 +0.2% R2K +0.6% SOX +0.1% SP400 +0.6% SP500 +8.20 XOI +1.9% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1245/1789/1.76 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1033/2249/1.42 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $56; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(1-29-07) Stocks drop still only modestly relative to reality as the wall street fraud continues to suck the suckers in with suckers bear market rally into the close to end mixed; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 3.76 S&P fell 1.56 ,and NASDAQ up 5.60, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Mergers and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

U.S. Steel 4Q Profit More Than Doubles
AP - Higher metal prices and robust sales in Europe helped United States Steel Corp. more than double its fourth-quarter profit, but the steel maker warned of a downturn in coming months.

Shanghai Exchange Warns of Trade Threat AP
Stocks End Higher Ahead of Fed Meeting
AP
Fidelity Voting No on Clear Channel Deal
AP
Citigroup to Buy Prudential's Egg Bank
AP

Stocks finished in similar fashion to the way they opened, relatively flat, as investors weighed positive developments like plunging oil prices and M&A activity against mixed earnings news and uncertainty heading into a two-day FOMC meeting. On Wednesday, policy makers are likely to keep rates unchanged again but underlying nervousness suggests the policy directive may exhibit a more hawkish stance than previously thought. With another 25% of the S&P 500 reporting results this week, earnings were a focal point Monday. However, Dow component Verizon (VZ 38.04 +0.21) merely beating estimates by a penny also served as a reminder that there have been very few blowout numbers. A batch of M&A news was also noteworthy; but the lack of any blockbuster deals left the market redirecting some of its focus to a slew of economic data out later in the week, especially the upcoming Fed policy statement. Laureate Education (LAUR 60.80 +6.39) going private was the biggest deal today. However, its proposed $3.8 bln management-led takeover was overshadowed by Merrill Lynch's (MER 92.44 -2.09) smaller $1.8 bln deal for First Republic (FRC 53.69 +15.39), but a 46% premium that drew criticism from MER shareholders. Ensuing weakness throughout the brokerage group removed some notable leadership from the most influential of all S&P sectors -- Financials. Posting a similar 0.5% decline was Energy. Albeit holding up rather well early on, even as oil prices were down about 1.5%, the commodity slipping to as low as $53.75/bbl (-3.0%) in afternoon trade eventually took a toll on the sector. Crude for March delivery plunged 2.6% and closed below $54/bbl after a Saudi Official said current oil prices are adequate for consumers and producers. Oil's sell-off removed notable Energy leadership that exacerbated the afternoon downturn. Among the five sectors attracting buyers, Industrials turned in the best performance as several transportation components reaped the benefits of lower energy prices. Dow component Caterpillar (CAT 61.77 +0.68), which got a boost after competitor Cummins (CMI 127.47 +2.40) issued upside 2007 earnings guidance, provided additional sector support. Technology was also in focus, but the sector's gain was modest at best as strength came primarily from three components. Intel (INTC 20.89 +0.36) surged 1.8% after revealing a new technology to make smaller and faster chips. Fellow Dow component IBM (IBM 98.60 +1.15) advanced 1.2% following a similar technological breakthrough while Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 42.48 +0.79) was the Dow's best performer (+1.9%) after Prudential raised estimates and their price target on HPQ to $36 from $33. BTK +0.2% DJ30 +3.76 DJTA +1.1% DJUA -0.1% DOT +0.3% NASDAQ +5.60 NQ100 +0.1% R2K +0.6% SOX -0.6% SP400 +0.4% SP500 -1.56 XOI -0.5% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1255/1779/1.94 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1476/1816/1.50 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $53; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(1-26-07) Stocks drop still only modestly relative to reality as the wall street fraud continues to suck the suckers in with suckers bear market rally into the close to end mixed; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average fell 15.54 S&P fell 1.72 ,and NASDAQ up 1.25, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in Ford�s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone.Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Judge Balks at State Farm Katrina Deal
AP - A federal judge in Mississippi on Friday refused to endorse part of a proposed settlement that calls for insurance payments to thousands of Mississippi policyholders whose homes were destroyed or damaged by Hurricane Katrina.

Study Says Skin Tone Affects Earnings AP
Feds Ban Excessive Railroad Fuel Fees
AP
SEC Probes KB Home Stock Options Grants
AP
Video Shows Coke Worker Taking Documents
AP

The indices finished in split fashion and were relatively flat Friday as investors juggled mixed corporate news, surging oil prices and the growing likelihood the Fed might not cut rates at all this year. Before the market opened, the belief that Thursday's sell-off may have been an overreaction, especially on the heels of Microsoft's (MSFT 30.60 +0.15) solid quarter and fellow Dow component Caterpillar (CAT 61.04 +1.41) issuing upside 2007 sales guidance, helped to improve the underlying tone. Microsoft's solid quarter helped renew confidence in Technology's growth prospects, as bargain hunters jumped back into beaten-down chip stocks. Nonetheless, tech only recovering a fraction of the 1.0% it endured a day earlier was only enough to help the Nasdaq limp into the close with a paltry gain. Aside from the inability to take a more convincing tech recovery into the weekend, growing uncertainty as to which way (and when) policy makers will fine-tune monetary policy also weighed on investors' minds. At 8:30 ET, the market digested a report that showed underlying business investment trends are picking up after a few soft months. Durable goods orders jumped 3.1% in December, ex-transportation orders posted their first increase since September and non-defense orders (ex-trans) rebounded after a few months of decline. Just a day removed from getting more evidence of stabilization in the economy's weakest sector - housing - the Commerce Dept. showed that new home sales rose a healthy 4.8% in December to a 1.12 mln annual rate, the highest level since April. The report also showed a decline in monthly inventories, a drop in median home prices and an upward revision to November's numbers. However, such strong data also left some investors fearing the worst - that the Fed's next move may actually be to tighten. The funds futures market continues to reduce the favored odds for a Fed policy ease over 2007 as the current pricing holds off a rate cut until December. At the end of the day, though, the market simply looked tired following a week of choppy trading. In fact, had reports of a possible alliance between Countrywide Financial (CFC 42.94 +2.65) and Bank of America (BAC 52.05 -0.35) not surfaced late in the day to turnaround the influential Financials sector, the Dow and S&P 500 would have lost even more ground. On a positive note, the market remained fairly resilient in the face of a 2.2% surge in oil prices.BTK -0.2% DJ30 -15.54 DJTA -0.9% DJUA +0.2% DOT +0.2% NASDAQ +1.25 NQ100 -0.3% R2K +0.5% SOX 1.6% SP400 +0.3% SP500 -1.71 XOI +0.5% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1239/1763/1.94 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1361/1896/1.37 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $54; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(1-25-07) Stocks drop still only modestly relative to reality as the wall street fraud continues to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average fell 119.21 S&P fell 16.23 ,and NASDAQ fell 32.04, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion
AP - Ford Motor Co. lost a staggering $12.7 billion in 2006, an average of $1,925 for every car and truck it sold and the worst loss in the company's 103-year-history.

Vista Delays Cut Into Microsoft Profits AP
Frontier's 3Q Net Loss Deepens
AP
GM to Delay 4Q Earnings, Restate Results
AP
Former Livedoor Exec Says He Was Framed
AP

Evidently, the absence of potentially troubling economic data a day earlier did help investors place more of an emphasis on the "good" news embedded in earnings reports because today's mixed earnings news and economic data dashing hopes of a Fed rate cut anytime soon took a toll on sentiment. The major averages opened mixed as investors weighed the sustainability of yesterday's impressive rally against another round of better than expected results. Dow component AT&T (T 36.84 0.21) was the day's biggest name, opening at a multi-year high (+2.6%) after beating expectations and guiding for double-digit EPS growth this year and next. Nonetheless, blue-chip buyers began showing some reserve early on, especially after the Dow hit record levels and the S&P 500 hit six-year highs Wednesday. The Nasdaq wasn't faring much better early on as it was clinging to a small gain following unexpectedly strong results from tech companies like eBay (EBAY 33.65 +3.65) and Qualcomm (QCOM 38.16 -0.46). eBay, a recommended holding in the Briefing.com Active Portfolio, was up as much as 18% last night following its encouraging Q4 report and still closed up 8%. Be that as it may, a two-day hiatus from any economic reports also left investors anxiously waiting to see if the housing market was still showing signs of stabilization. Then, at 10:00 ET, existing home sales for December checked in shy of economists' forecasts and, for all of 2006, fell 8.4% -- the largest annual decline in 17 years. While that was responsible for a knee-jerk reaction in stocks that exacerbated the temptation to take some of yesterday's gains off the table, the worst was yet to come. Fed funds futures, which were pricing in a nearly 50% rate cut before June, erased all expectations of a Fed easing. As a result, bonds began selling off, which lifted the yield on the 10-year note to five-month highs and left investors pricing in a more hawkish Fed stance just days before the next FOMC meeting. Such concerns weighed heavily on the rate-sensitive and influential Financials sector.Since higher interest rates spark valuation concerns among growth stocks, Technology found itself under some additional profit-taking pressure. That was especially evident on the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which surrendered nearly all of Wednesday's 1.4% advance. In fact, Microsoft (MSFT 30.45 -0.64), which is also a Dow component and the fourth most influential constituent on the S&P 500, was up as much as 1.3% at 4 1/2-year highs earlier in the session. However, the overwhelmingly bearish bias eventually weighed on the software giant as investors growing nervous about tonight's Q2 report closed the stock at its worst level of the day and down 2.1%.  On a positive note, oil prices plunged 2.1% to close at $54.23/bbl, but subsequent absence of leadership from Energy (-2.0%) -- today's worst performing sector -- and the failure of transportation stocks to take notice raised another wall of worry about current valuations. Sure, the bulk of earnings reports were again better than expected today; but the percentage of those beating estimates (~55%) running below normal (65-70%), and the number of blowout reports not as large as in recent quarters, merely fed into underlying worries about decelerating profit growth. BTK -1.4% DJ30 -119.21 DJTA -1.4% DJUA -0.6% DOT -0.8% NASDAQ -32.04 NQ100 -1.4% R2K -1.3% SOX -0.5% SP400 1.2% SP500 -16.23 XOI -2.1% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2146/883/2.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2551/771/1.70 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $54; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(1-24-07) Lunatics suckers bear market rally has devolved into nothing less than madness, as the wall street fraud continues to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 87.97, S&P up 12.14, and NASDAQ up 34.87, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). P/E ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Big Game Bud Unveils Super Bowl Ads
AP - In the annual Big Game of advertising -- the Super Bowl -- marketing powerhouse Anheuser-Busch Cos. is the force to be reckoned with, and this year is no different.

EBay Announces Aggressive Buyback AP
Hyundai's 4Q Profit Tumbles 22 Percent
AP
U.N.: Services Sector Overtakes Farming
AP
Ford May Report Worst Loss in History
AP

Stocks rallied Wednesday as renewed optimism on the earnings front, especially from some notable tech names, sparked a wave of buying interest that closed all three major averages sharply higher. The Dow finished in record territory, the S&P 500 hit a fresh six-year high and the Nasdaq closed up 1.4%, extending its year-to-date leading advance to more than 2%. With nothing of note on the economic calendar, earnings were again at the forefront of investors' minds Wednesday. More notable than the majority of the reports either meeting or exceeding Wall Street expectations, though, was a batch of upbeat guidance that suggested growth prospects might not be that bad after all. Bargain hunters hungry for even the slightest bit of clarity to suggest recent market weakness may be overdone came primarily from Technology, which is also where the cloud of uncertainty has been most prevalent. As evidenced by the Nasdaq outpacing its blue-chip counterparts to the upside, Yahoo! (YHOO 28.94 +1.98) and Sun Microsystems (SUNW 6.15 +0.49) were among the biggest standouts from a news standpoint. Even though neither is the tech bellwether they used to be, both companies followed up better than expected earnings reports with some additional upbeat developments. Yahoo closed up 7.3% as investors applauded news that an earlier than anticipated roll-out of its Panama ad search technology implies growth acceleration beginning in Q2. Sun soared nearly 9% after announcing a $700 mln private placement transaction with KKR Private Equity Investors. Other tech stocks topping estimates and lending some reassurance about a sector plagued of late by a slew of reports taht failed to impress investors were Corning (GLW 20.92 +2.08), Citrix Systems (CTXS 31.66 +1.79) and Seagate Technology (STX 28.32 +2.14).Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 16.01 -1.50), which missed expectations and issued a Q1 sales warning, was really the sector's only sore spot since 15 out of 18 components in the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index still finished higher. Of the other nine sectors trading higher, Telecom actually turned in the day's best performance (+2.8%). AT&T (T 36.87 +1.51) surging 4.3% to a five-year high after its Cingular Wireless unit posted sharply higher profits, and ahead of its own report tomorrow morning, was the biggest reason behind the sector's outperformance. It is worth noting that AT&T also accounts for roughly 7% of the weighting in Tech. Financials was another influential sector. Brokerage stocks got a boost following reports that rivals Goldman Sachs (GS 220.10 +7.46) and Morgan Stanley (MS 84.65 +2.03) may collaborate on a potentially $15-20 bln private-equity deal. Health Care also provided some notable leadership to the upside, getting some help as Dow component Pfizer (PFE 26.80 +0.43) recouped much of yesterday's downgrade-induced 2.3% decline. The sector got an additional boost after AmerisourceBergen (ABC 52.01 +3.94) topped forecasts and raised FY07 guidance, which plays into our Overweight rating on Health Care. BTK 0.8% DJ30 +87.97 DJTA -0.1% DJUA 0.8% DOT +2.0% NASDAQ +34.87 NQ100 +1.7% R2K +1.1% SOX +1.3% SP400 +1.0% SP500 +12.14 XOI +0.5% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 994/2044/2.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1019/2271/1.52 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $55; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(1-23-07) Lunatics suckers bear market rally, dead dog bounce, as the wall street fraud continues to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 56.64, S&P up 5.04, and NASDAQ up .34,all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Yahoo profit falls 61% but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Bush Seeks Cutback in Gas Consumption
AP - President Bush on Tuesday asked Congress to help the nation reduce its gasoline consumption during the next ten years, outlining an energy plan that would seek increased fuel economy standards from the auto industry.

Yahoo's 4Q Profit Tops Analyst Forecasts AP
Sun Returns to Black After Years in Red
AP
AMD Reports 4Q Loss on Acquisition Costs
AP
Philadelphia Newspapers Being Revamped
AP

Buyers returned Tuesday following Monday's broad-based decline amid some renewed optimism about the overall earnings picture for Q4. However, market gains were modest as a late-day surge in oil prices took some steam out of intraday recovery efforts, especially on the tech-heavy Nasdaq. With earnings season in full swing and this week marking the biggest batch of reports thus far, Tuesday was no exception. Of the three Dow components reporting today, United Technologies (UTX 66.14 +2.05) was the best performer on the blue chip index (+3.2%) after it posted a 38% jump in Q4 profits. The Industrials sector got an additional boost from Railroads (+3.7%), even in the face of the 4.7% surge in oil. Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI 80.15 +3.02) and CSX Corp (CSX 36.70 +1.60) soared 3.9% and 4.6%, respectively, after posting solid quarterly results and providing optimistic outlooks. With regard to oil prices, crude for March delivery closed just above $55/bbl, recording its largest one-day increase since September 2005 following reports that President Bush will propose doubling the size of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. While oil's surge helped Energy more than halve its year-to-date 4.6% decline, the sector's 2.4% advance was also attributed to the commodity's potential to crimp spending, exacerbating the continued rotation out of Technology. Of the other five sectors closing in positive territory, Materials was also up more than 1.0% as weakness in the greenback made dollar-denominated commodity stocks more attractive. However, even though only three sectors closed lower, the losing trio of Financials, Health Care and Technology are also the most influential of the 10 economic sectors. Since they collectively account for nearly 50% of the total weighting of the S&P 500, the absence of their leadership kept market gains at a minimum. Health Care was in focus after Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 66.50 -0.68) beat expectations on record revenues; but management saying the acquisition of Pfizer's (PFE 26.34 -0.61) consumer health care group won't add to its bottom line until 2009 weighed on the stock all day. Fellow Dow component Pfizer was and even bigger drag on the sector, droppng 2.3% after being downgraded. Turning in the day's second worst performance was Tech, as some more evidence (i.e. warnings and higher energy prices) feeding slowdown concerns acted as an overhang. Alcatel-Lucent (ALU 13.14 -1.05) warned that it won't make a profit in Q4 while Tellabs (TLAB 9.95 -0.07) guiding Q1 revenues below consensus estimates also took a toll on Communications Equipment (-1.4%). The latter was one of today's worst performing S&P industry groups. However, not all was lost. With most of the bad news still priced into shares of Texas Instruments (TXN 29.60 +1.01), a better than expected Q4 earnings report last night prompting Merrill Lynch to upgrade the stock earmarked TXN as one of the sector's few bright spots. BTK -1.0% DJ30 +56.64 DJTA +0.3% DJUA 0.5% DOT -0.1% NASDAQ +0.34 NQ100 -0.3% R2K +1.0% SOX 0.1% SP400 +0.8% SP500 +5.04 XOI +2.4% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1192/1824/2.04 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1126/2153/1.66 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $54; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(1-22-07) Stocks drop still only modestly relative to reality with suckers bear market rally still intact as the wall street fraud continues to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average fell 88.37 S&P down 7.55, and NASDAQ down 20.24, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Report on leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Gap Dumps CEO After Poor Shopping Season
AP - Gap Inc. was already struggling when it brought in Paul Pressler as chief executive more than four years ago. Those troubles look even more daunting as the clothing retailer ushers Pressler out the door with a $14 million severance package that leaves him in a lot better shape than the company he departs.

FDA Scrutinizes Birth Control Drugs AP
Texas Instruments 4Q Earnings Up 2 Pct.
AP
LG Electronics Profit Plunges 85 Percent
AP
CSX 4th-Quarter Earnings Rise 46 Percent
AP

Stocks stumbled out of the gate Monday and never recovered as ongoing concerns that companies will not live up to the market's lofty earnings expectations kicked off a new week on a negative note .Worries about disappointing guidance kept Technology in focus again. Microsoft (MSFT 30.72 -0.39), which hit a multi-year high last week, gave back some of those gains as investors grew concerned about its Q2 report this Thursday. As a reminder, the Tech sector tumbled 3.4% last week, contributing heavily to the Nasdaq's worst weekly performance (-2.1%) since last July, after reports from Apple (AAPL 86.79 -1.71) and Intel (INTC 20.79 -0.03) failed to impress investors. With most of the bad news already priced into shares of Texas Instruments (TXN 28.67 +0.28), which warned in early December, the stock was one of the sector's few bright spots today heading into its Q4 report after the close .Industrials was the day's biggest disappointment among the 10 sectors that closed lower. An analyst downgrade on Boeing (BA 85.57 -3.06), the Dow's leading laggard (-3.5%), left Aerospace & Defense (-1.7%) as one of today's worst performing S&P industry groups. Construction & Farming (-2.1%) fared even worse as Caterpillar (CAT 58.21 -1.16) dropped 2.0% to a new 52-week low. Fellow Dow component Pfizer (PFE 26.98 -0.24), which was up 10% after bottoming out in early December, topped Wall Street expectations in its fourth quarter. However, not even plans to cut costs by $2 bln annually (i.e. slashing 10% of workforce, closing plants) were enough to offset a Q4 report that showed Lipitor sales missed 2006 targets while Zoloft sales plunged 79%. Pfizer's nearly 1.0% decline was a big reason why investors consolidated gains throughout this year's best performing sector, Health Care. The absence of any upside leadership from Financials was also noteworthy. JP Morgan Chase (JPM 49.75 +0.99) and Morgan Stanley (MS 83.47 +1.97) surged to multi-year highs while Citigroup (C 54.80 +0.30), which was up nearly 2.0% following news that Sallie L. Krawcheck is stepping aside as CFO to become CEO of the bank's Global Wealth Management division, also advanced. However, losses in REITS and weakness in insurance names acted as offsetting factors. Meanwhile, oil prices relinquished more than half of Friday's 3.0% rebound; but subsequent weakness in the Energy sector that removed more notable leadership reminded investors that nearly four years of double digit profit growth on the S&P 500 may be over.BTK -0.6% DJ30 -88.37 DJTA -1.0% DJUA -0.2% DOT -0.9% NASDAQ -20.24 NQ100 -1.0% R2K -0.9% SOX -1.0% SP400 -0.5% SP500 -7.55 XOI -0.7% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2007/1053/1.87 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2045/1215/1.39 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $51; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(1-19-07) Stocks rally into the close and drop still only modestly relative to reality to end mixedwith suckers bear market rally still intact as the wall street fraud continues to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average fell 2.40 S&P up 4.13, and NASDAQ up 8.10, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Stocks Are Mixed on Earnings Reports
AP - Stocks closed narrowly mixed Friday after profit reports and forecasts from blue chip names like International Business Machines Corp. and General Electric Co. failed to impress Wall Street and sent investors searching for other catalysts to drive the markets higher.

Pfizer Expected to Cut Staff AP
Motorola to Cut 3,500 Jobs
AP
McD's Preps for China Drive-Thru Boom
AP
GE's 4Q Earnings More Than Double
AP

The major averages finished in split fashion Friday as investors juggled mixed earnings news, a rebound in oil prices and the belief that stocks, especially tech, may be oversold at current levels.IBM (IBM 96.17 -3.28) became the third tech bellwether in as many days to beat consensus estimates but also deliver a report that did not live up to the market's lofty expectations. The Dow component, which was up nearly 25% since October, topped estimates; but expectations running high into the report offered investors an opportunity to lock in profits. As the highest price stock on the Dow, it is worth noting that the 3.3% decline on Big Blue accounted for 26 points of the selling pressure that kept the Dow in negative territory most of the day.With the Nasdaq on pace for its worst weekly performance since last July, a sense that the recent bloodletting was overextended attracted some bargain-hunting interest. Among the biggest beneficiaries helping the tech-heavy Composite snap a three-day losing streak were chip stocks. Xilinx (XLNX 23.88 +0.91) turned in the best recovery effort on the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index, which plunged 3.9% yesterday. Citigroup telling investors to buy Intel (INTC 20.82 +0.17) on weakness provided additional support while some upbeat news from Motorola (MOT 19.27 +0.56) also helped to renew enthusiasm in several beaten-down Tech names. Motorola posted a 48% drop in Q4 earnings, but the market applauded its plans to save $400 mln over two years by cutting as many as 3,500 jobs.Of the seven sectors closing higher, Energy paced the way (+2.5%). Oil prices closing at session highs near $52/bbl was certainty a big reason why, especially with crude for February delivery touching 20-month lows below $50/bbl yesterday. However, Schlumberger (SLB 61.00 +3.10) posting a 71% rise in Q4 profits and saying that any moderation in activity (the fear given lower energy prices) will be short-lived also helped renew some optimism about the sector's earnings potential. The stock, which was down 8.3% year to date yesterday, more than halved that decline today (+5.4%).With Tech finishing just below the flat line (but basically flat), the only sector under noticeable pressure today was Industrials. General Electric (GE 36.95 -1.05) said Q4 profits more than doubled, matching Wall Street estimates. However, management also saying it will restate financials from 2001 to 2005 pushed the stock down 2.8%, earmarked Industrial Conglomerates as today's worst performing S&P industry group (-2.3%) and contributed to the Dow's inability to finish in positive territory. BTK +0.6% DJ30 -2.40 DJTA +0.8% DJUA +0.4% DOT -0.2% NASDAQ +8.10 NQ100 +0.2% R2K +0.9% SOX +0.6% SP400 +0.7% SP500 +4.13 XOI +2.1% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1178/1827/2.07 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 998/2273/1.55 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $51; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(1-18-07) Stocks drop still only modestly relative to reality with suckers bear market rally still intact as the wall street fraud continues to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average fell 9.22 S&P fell 4.25,and NASDAQ fell 36.21, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Fed Chairman Bernanke begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

IBM Posts Big Fourth-Quarter Profit Rise
AP - International Business Machines Corp. rode cost cuts and software acquisitions to healthy fourth-quarter profits, and the company posted a blockbuster number for contract signings. But investors found reasons to be disappointed, sending IBM stock down more than 5 percent.

House Rolls Back Oil Company Subsidies AP
GE Buying Part of Abbott's Diagnostics
AP
Inflation Moderates in 2006, Wages Up
AP
Magazine's Car Seat Findings Withdrawn
AP

Stocks picked up Thursday where they left off a session earlier, trading lower, as the market took a hit from another sell-off in Technology. The Nasdaq plunged 1.5%, its biggest one-day decline in nearly two months. Oil prices dropping to 20-month lows also removed some notable leadership.  Meanwhile, more evidence the Fed is not likely to ease anytime soon also weighed on sentiment and left valuations vulnerable.Tech, which was this year's best performing S&P 500 sector (+3.9%) just two days ago, plunged again after disappointing Q2 guidance from Apple (AAPL 89.07 -5.88) overshadowed its blowout report. Apple, which closed at a record high on Tuesday, handily topped Wall Street expectations last night, prompting several brokers to raise their price targets. However, Mac units down sequentially for the first time in five years and Q2 EPS guidance falling short of consensus estimates resulted in a couple of analyst downgrades, providing an excuse to lock in recent gains. Dell (DELL 25.21 -0.63) tumbling 2.4% following reports that solidified rival Hewlett-Packard's (HPQ 42.34 -0.15) lead as No. 1 PC maker also weighed on Computer Hardware. An area of tech that was even more disappointing, though, was Semiconductor Equipment. It was today's worst performing S&P industry group after Lam Research (LRCX 46.22 -7.91), saying shipment delays will weigh on this quarter's bottom line, exacerbated the mass exodus out of a sector that many were counting on to help the S&P 500 keep its winning streak of double-digit profit growth intact.After briefly slipping below $50/bbl for the first time since May 2005, oil prices easily wiped out yesterday's 2.0% rebound. Crude for February delivery closed down 3.3% at $50.50/bbl following the first build in weekly crude supplies since November which was also the biggest gain since October 2004. While falling oil prices bode well for consumers, and will likely result in more encouraging reads in this month's total CPI figure, the market was also hung up on the fact that December's CPI report did not provide a clear indication of moderating inflation trends.The market was also preoccupied with some commentary from Fed Chairman Bernanke just after the market opened. Bernanke warned of a possible "fiscal crisis" and added that, "If early and meaningful action is not taken [to lower the budget deficit], the U.S. economy could be seriously weakened." Even though his testimony made no mention of monetary policy, it acted as an overhang throughout the session. On a positive note, unexpected increases in monthly housing starts and building permits provided further evidence that the housing market has bottomed out, removing the worst of recession fears. Be that as it may, the data also diminished the likelihood of policy makers cutting interest rates in early 2007.BTK -0.4% DJ30 -9.22 DJTA +0.2% DJUA -0.1% DOT -1.6% NASDAQ -36.21 NQ100 -1.9% R2K -1.4% SOX -3.9% SP400 -0.9% SP500 -4.25 XOI -0.6% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2196/855/2.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2010/1272/1.57 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $50; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(1-17-07) Stocks drop still only modestly relative to reality with suckers bear market rally still intact as the wall street fraud continues to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average fell 5.44 S&P fell 1.28 ,and NASDAQ fell 18.36, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Apple Reports Record 1Q Profit
AP - With the iPod juggernaut still soaring, Apple Inc. reaped record profits during the holiday quarter and stands to remain a Wall Street darling despite issuing a second-quarter forecast that fell below analyst expectations.

Retailers Assess Citrus Freeze Impact AP
Rite Aid Shareholders to Vote on Deal
AP
IKEA Plans Move Into North Carolina
AP
Citrus Freeze Leaves Thousands Jobless
AP

Stocks closed lower Wednesday as mixed earnings and economic data left investors questioning valuations and earnings prospects, especially throughout the influential Tech sector (-1.3%).Before the market even opened, equities were exhibiting a negative slant after Intel (INTC 21.04 -1.26) posted Q4 results that weren't inspiring enough to justify a run that left it as this year's best performing Dow component a day earlier. The tech bellwether beat expectations by a penny, but reported a 39% decline in Q4 profits and then said gross margins will narrow in 2007. With the market pricing in expectations for strong tech earnings and guidance, the Nasdaq-listed Dow component consolidating to the tune of 5.7% was a huge drag on all three major averages.Cisco Systems (CSCO 26.98 -1.06) being downgraded for the third time in two days also took some steam out of what was this year's best performing sector. Cisco, which closed at a multi-year high last Friday, tumbled nearly 4% while Apple (AAPL 94.95 -2.15), ahead of its Q1 report, fell 2.2%.On the economic front, investors first sifted through a questionable PPI report. Even though there have been sharp fluctuations in the PPI data over the last two months, the Labor Dept. today showing that Dec. core producer prices rose a slightly higher than expected 0.2% left the year/year rate at a bothersome 2.0% for first time since Sep. 2005. While we believe it is wrong to draw too much of a conclusion from a few monthly PPI numbers, the report raised concerns that tomorrow's more influential CPI data may also diminish the likelihood that the Fed will cut interest rates anytime soon. Also keeping inflation in the spotlight was the 2:00 ET release of the Fed's Beige Book. The report showed that most districts expanded at a modest pace, with continued expansion in manufacturing activity contradicting much of the prevailing wisdom about near-contractionary levels seen in some recent data points. Be that as it may, since some districts also noted that certain business lines experienced wage increases and are concerned about increases in the benefit portion of compensation, such tight labor market conditions potentially contributing to the potential for inflation acted as an offset.Not surprising, oil prices were in focus yet again. However, after plunging as much as 1.8% in early trading, cold weather forecasts renewed enough enthusiasm for the oversold commodity to close it at session highs. Crude for February delivery finished up about 2% and back above $52/bbl, reigniting some optimism about Energy's earnings potential but when it was all said and done, merely added to the market's overall sensitivity and nervousness about holding onto recent gains. DJ30 -5.44 DJTA -1.0% NASDAQ -18.36 SOX -0.8% SP500 -1.28 XOI +1.0% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1680/1285/2.31 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1561/1720/1.52 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $52; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(1-16-07) Lunatics suckers bear market rally into the close as the wall street fraud continues to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 26.51, S&P up 1.17, and NASDAQ down 5.04, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has collapsed... Euro displaces dollar in bond markets... Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Cold Ruins Nearly $1B of Calif. Citrus
AP - Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger asked the federal government Tuesday for disaster aid because of an ongoing cold snap that has destroyed nearly $1 billion worth of California citrus, and industry officials said shoppers will feel the sting through higher prices for oranges, lemons and other produce.

Cablevision Board Rejects Dolans' Offer AP
SEC Sues 3 Former Execs of ConAgra Unit
AP
Baker Panel Report Criticizes BP Safety
AP
Wells Fargo, U.S. Bancorp Post Gains
AP

Even after a long holiday weekend, stocks looked a bit tired Tuesday as the absence of leadership rom the Energy sector amid another sell-off in oil, valuation concerns in tech, and weak economic data minimized blue-chip gains and snapped a three-day winning streak on the Nasdaq.Stalling follow-through buying interest on the Nasdaq were concerns that the recent rally in tech may not live up to the earnings expectations that have been priced into the sector over the last few months. Exacerbating such concerns was a profit warning from Symantec (SYMC 17.79 -2.69), which tumbled 13% in response to its downwardly revised full-year outlook.After hitting a multi-year high last week, Cisco Systems (CSCO 28.04 -0.88) plunged 3% after it was downgraded on valuation concerns. Analyst downgrades on KLA-Tencor (KLAC 50.54 -1.63) and Novellus Systems (NVLS 32.20 -0.55) also prompted consolidation in this year's best performing sector.Not surprisingly, oil prices were a focal point again. Crude for February delivery plunged 3.4% to 19-month lows ($51.21/bbl) after Saudi Arabia's oil minister surprisingly denounced the need for an emergency OPEC meeting and further production cuts. However, while a nearly 6% decline in the front-month crude contract last week was clearly a reason behind the positive tone that contributed to an average gain of 1.9% for the major indices, today's sell-off removing notable leadership from Energy was more of a concern.The Energy sector had been expected to grow earnings a solid 16% this quarter (Q107), following an anticipated 3% decline in Q4 profits; but that was before the continued downturn in crude now leaves the commodity down 16% already this year.Since oil makes up as much as 60% of the costs for many chemical companies, DuPont (DD 50.51 +0.78) paced the way (+1.6%) among the 18 Dow components trading higher and helped the Dow inch to another new record close.Another beneficiary of oil's continued slide was Transports. Airlines, for which oil constitutes roughly 30% of total costs, got an added boost from an analyst upgrade on Southwest Airlines (LUV 16.56 +0.34). FedEx (FDX 111.58 +2.72), which was also upgraded, provided additional support for an Industrials sector that was also dealing with a weaker than expected read on manufacturing conditions.Before the bell, the January NY Empire Index fell to a 20-month low of 9.1 in January and December's figure was revised lower. Albeit not the most influential of regional surveys, it was today's only scheduled economic release and offered investors one of the first perspectives on economic strength in the New Year. BTK +0.2% DJ30 +26.51 DJTA +2.1% DJUA +0.2% DOT -0.7% NASDAQ -5.04 NQ100 -0.1% R2K -0.4% SOX -1.3% SP400 -0.2% SP500 +1.17 XOI -1.5% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1654/1406/2.13 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1724/1575/1.39 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $51; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(1-12-07) Waning full moon and lunatics suckers bear market rally into the close as the wall street fraud continues to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 41, S&P up 6, and NASDAQ up 17, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Higher oil prices and fake numbers spur rally. More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Feds Probing Stock Options Grant to Jobs
AP - Federal prosecutors confirmed late Friday that they have opened an investigation into stock options irregularities at Apple Inc.

Dow Ends Up 41 on Robust Economic Data AP
Wal-Mart Picks New Ad Agencies
AP
Dolans Raise Cablevision Bid to $8.9B
AP
Delta Pushes Ahead on Standalone Plan
AP

More evidence that a soft landing for the U.S. economy remains on track helped extend Thursday's broad-based buying efforts. The Dow finished in record territory again while the Nasdaq hit a new six-year high.December retail sales checking in with their biggest gain (+0.9%) since July - providing further evidence that the consumer is alive and kicking - was the biggest reason behind Friday's impressive follow-through effort. Retail sales (ex-autos) were also stronger than economists expected, rising 1.0% - the largest increase since January. Not only did the data alleviate concerns about the slowdown in housing curtailing consumption, but the absence of significant weakness increased the likelihood that Q4 GDP estimates will be revised higher.Of the eight sectors closing in positive territory, Energy led the charge (+2.6%). The return of Energy's leadership, following four straight down days that had the sector down 3.5% for the week and off more than 8% already this year, more than acted as an offset to the 2.1% bounce in oil prices. After plunging 13% so far this year and selling off over the last four days, a rebound of some sort in oil prices was not a big surprise. It is also worth noting that oil was still down nearly 6% for the week and is 33% below record levels reached last July.Materials turned in the day's second best performance; but its 1.1% advance still didn't provide as much support as continued upward momentum in Technology. The more influential sector was in focus Friday after Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 18.27 -1.91) said Q4 revenue will miss expectations. AMD's warning prompted several analyst downgrades and initially renewed concerns about earnings prospects of other chip makers.However, ongoing fears of missing out on an extended tech rally overshadowed AMD's expected revenue shortfall. Case in point, rival Intel (INTC 22.13 +0.21) was down as much as 1.4%, but the stock, which is also a recommended holding in the Briefing.com Active Portfolio, bounced back to close up nearly 1%. Fellow Dow component and tech bellwether Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 43.57 +0.93), which is a big beneficiary of the ongoing price wars between AMD and Intel, surged 2.2% to a multi-year high.Building on Thursday's impressive 3.5% advance, Microsoft (MSFT 31.21 +0.51) hitting a new 4 1/2-year high also lent notable support for all three major averages for a second straight day. DJ30 +41.10 NASDAQ +17.97 SP500 +6.91 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1147/1900/2.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1113/2140/1.50 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $52; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(1-11-07) Waning full moon and lunatics suckers bear market rally into the close as the wall street fraud continues to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 72, S&P up 8, and NASDAQ up 25, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). More fake job numbers (at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Jury Rules State Farm Owes Damages
AP - A federal judge's ruling in a Hurricane Katrina insurance dispute on the Mississippi Gulf Coast could raise the standard for proof in the wind vs. wave legal battles over who pays for storm damages.

Consumers See Brighter Future in 2007 AP
Hyundai Motor Union Votes to Strike
AP
Ex-Currency Trader Ordered to Pay $33M
AP
Cingular Rebranding at AT&T Set to Begin
AP

The major averages finished in strong fashion Thursday as investors rallied around renewed optimism about the pace of economic growth.With six months of market gains still predicated on the chances of the Fed engineering a soft landing for the U.S. economy, today's only economic report showing no indication of any weakening in the labor market helped to ease concerns about the health of the consumer.Weekly jobless claims fell a larger than expected 26,000 to 299,000, the lowest level since late July. Even though the data also serve as a reminder that policy makers remain concerned about the potential inflationary impact of higher wages, which contributed to a surprise rate hike from the Bank of England, more evidence of strong labor conditions proved reassuring.Just two days into the Q4 earnings season, biotech behemoth Genentech (DNA 87.40 +3.66) topped Wall Street estimates and raised its FY07 outlook, prompting several price target increases. Albeit not an S&P 500 constituent, Genetech's net income surging 75% year/year left investors hopeful that aggregate earnings will grow at a double-digit rate for a 14th straight quarter.Aside from strength in Health Care, which provided notable leadership for the broader market, continued momentum throughout the Technology sector again provided some influential support. Microsoft (MSFT 30.70 +1.04) soared 3.5% to a new four-year high amid upbeat analyst commentary after Windows Vista was named "Best of CES" at this year's International Consumer Electronics Show.Also helping the Dow close at a new record high was fellow component Intel (INTC 21.87 +0.35). A recommended holding in the Briefing.com Active Portfolio, last year's worst performing Dow stock is this best performer on the blue-chip index as bargain hunters helped tack on 1.6% to yesterday's 2.3% advance. It is worth noting, though, that SAP AG (SAP 49.03 -5.10) warned late in the day that Q4 sales will be well below expectations.  That news sent sent shares tumbling 9.4% and took some steam out of the tech rally.Oil prices closing lower for a fourth straight day provided the bulls even more ammunition to keep last year's second-half rally intact. Crude for February delivery closed below $52/bbl for the first time in 19 months following reports showing U.S. fuel consumption plunged to the lowest level since April 2004.Consumer Discretionary was another bright spot as plunging oil prices ahead of a long holiday weekend continued to improve the earnings prospects for retailers. Investors also applauded eBay (EBAY 30.23 +0.93), another suggested holding in our Active Portfolio that surged 3% following its $310 mln bid for StubHub. Industrials also showed relative strength as transportation stocks finally began to take advantage of oil's continued downturn.Not surprising in the face of the further deterioration in crude prices, the Energy sector disappointed yet again as its earnings potential comes into question with every sharp pullback in oil. However, Exxon Mobil (XOM 70.88 -0.11) barely losing any ground despite a 4% drubbing in crude was noteworthy. The stock opened the session down 7.4% on the year but a sense that the sector has been oversold of late kept the Dow component's decline at a minimum. DJ30 +72.82 NASDAQ +25.52 SP500 +8.97 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1035/2008/2.40 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 973/2321/1.67 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $51; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(1-10-07) Waning full moon and lunatics suckers bear market rally into the close as the wall street fraud continues to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 25.56, S&P up 2.74, and NASDAQ up 15.51, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Dow Ends Up 26 After Upbeat Alcoa News
AP - Wall Street managed a modest gain Wednesday after investors fretted over the impact of falling oil prices but were nonetheless inspired to buy following upbeat news from Alcoa Inc. and Apple Computer Inc.

House Passes Minimum Wage Increase AP
US Airways Increases Bid for Delta
AP
Trade Deficit Dips by 1 Percent in Nov.
AP
Oil Prices Settle at 19-Month Low
AP

After struggling to find direction for most of the session, some afternoon buying interest, buoyed by another mass exodus out of oil and fears of missing out on an extended tech rally, helped all three major averages close modestly higher. While lower oil prices are certainly good for the economy, as they've substantially reduced overall consumer price inflation of late, lingering concerns that diminishing demand for crude may foreshadow even weaker than expected economic growth acted as an offset to oil's continued downturn. After tumbling as much as 3.6%, as larger than expected builds in gasoline and distillate supplies continued to ease supply concerns, crude for February delivery closed down 2.9% at $54.02/bbl. That was the first time oil closed below $55/bbl since June 2005. Another cautious-sounding statement out of the Energy sector (-1.6%) also contributed to the lack of leadership from one of the biggest contributors to aggregate earnings growth on the S&P 500 for several quarters that minimized blue-chip gains. Chevron (CVX 69.41 -1.22) said Q4 will be adversely affected relative to its record Q3 results, serving as the latest reminder that earnings estimates for other energy names will likely be revised lower. The inability by economically-sensitive transportation stocks to take full advantage of another sell-off in oil also lent some credibility to concerns about diminishing demand for crude being a result of weaker than expected economic growth. In fact, airlines were among the only transports attracting buyers, but that was largely due to US Airways (LCC 58.90 +1.00) raising its hostile bid for Delta by 25% to $10.2 bln. Aside from M&A activity, Alcoa (AA 29.61 +1.09) kicking off the Q4 earnings season Tuesday night on a solid note, topping Wall Street forecasts, was another positive. Even though Alcoa is not a bellwether for overall earnings trends, a 6.0% advance on today's best performing Dow component left Aluminum as today's best performing S&P industry group. Turning in the second best performance on the Dow was Intel (INTC 21.52 +0.49) whose 2.3% advance helped lift the influential Tech sector's 2007 gain to nearly 3% just six trading days into the new year. Intel is providing chips for the recently introduced Apple TV. Sizable gains in two companies believed to be beneficiaries of Apple's iPhone -- Marvell Technology Group (MRVL 20.88 +1.15) and Nvidia (NVDA 34.90 +1.65) -- prompted even more rotation out of areas like Energy and into Tech, which Briefing.com rates as "Overweight." Meanwhile, Apple (AAPL 96.80 +4.23) tacked a 4.6% gain onto yesterday's 8% rally to close at a new all-time high following upbeat analyst commentary and several price target increases. Consumer Staples was another bright spot for investors after Dow component Altria Group (MO 89.19 +1.07) surged 1.2% to a fresh all-time high, as investors continue to find value tied to the upcoming spin-off of its stake in Kraft. BTK +0.6% DJ30 +25.56 DJTA +0.2% DJUA +0.1% DOT +0.3% NASDAQ +15.50 NQ100 +1.1% R2K +0.1% SOX +1.8% SP400 +0.3% SP500 +2.74 XOI -1.7% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1539/1493/2.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1638/1640/1.45 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $54; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(1-09-07) Waning full moon and lunatics suckers bear market rally into the close to end mixed as the wall street fraud continues to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average down 6.89 S&P down .73, and NASDAQ up 5.63, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Apple Renames Itself, Unveils iPhone
AP - Apple Computer CEO Steve Jobs on Tuesday announced the iPod maker's long-awaited leap into the mobile phone business and renamed the company just "Apple Inc.," reflecting its increased focus on consumer electronics.

Dow Drops Nearly 7 As Oil Prices Decline AP
Oil Prices Retreat on Mild Weather
AP
Alcoa 4Q Profit Rises 60 Percent
AP
DOT Picks United for Service to China
AP

The major averages finished mixed Tuesday as investors weighed upbeat news from Apple and falling oil prices against renewed concerns that 13 straight quarters of double-digit profit growth for the S&P 500 may soon come to an end. With earnings season officially kicking off tonight with the release of Alcoa's (AA 28.52 +0.04) Q4 report, and worries that profit forecasts may still be overly optimistic, the market exhibited a cautious tone from the opening bell to the close. In fact, the lack of conviction from both buyers and sellers was further underscored in today's market internals. Advancers on the NYSE held a slim 17-to-14 advantage over decliners while both advancing and declining issues on the Nasdaq were evenly matched.There was one advancer on the tech-heavy Composite, however, that garnered added attention today and was the biggest reason behind the Nasdaq's ability to hold onto a modest gain -- Apple Computer (AAPL 92.57 +7.10). The stock, which attracted buyers all morning amid growing enthusiasm surrounding new product introductions at the MacWorld Expo, soared 8.3% to close at a new all-time high. After introducing Apple TV and announcing a movie partnership with Paramount, Apple CEO Steve Jobs finally unveiled the long-awaited mobile phone -- the latest "everything portable, everything digital" initiative which further supports our Overweight rating on Technology.Turning in an even better performance than Tech, though, was Consumer Discretionary. News Corp (NWS 22.82 +0.41), a recommended holding in the Briefing.com Active Portfolio, surged nearly 2.0% toward a new multi-year high. A slew of retailers becoming more attractive at the expense of oil's continued pullback provided additional sector support.After breaking through a key area of support at $55/bbl in early trade, and being down as much as 3.3% at 18-month lows ($54.25/bbl), another down day for oil helped alleviate thoughts about the commodity's potential to sustain inflation pressures and provided some relief for consumers. Everything from fund liquidations amid continued reduction of speculative excess to growing skepticism about OPEC production cuts weighed on oil.Unfortunately for the bulls, the subsequent loss of leadership from the profit engine that has been Energy for so many quarters served as a reminder that earnings estimates for the likes of the Integrated Oil and Refining groups -- two of today's worst performing S&P indsutry groups -- will likely be revised lower. Another one of last year's best performers succumbing to sector rotation amid earnings uncertainty was Telecom. Sprint Nextel (S 17.45 -2.19) tumbled 11% after guiding FY06 revenues below analysts' forecasts.  The guidance, in turn, prompted multiple analyst downgrades. DJ30 -6.89 NASDAQ +5.63 NQ100 +0.5% SOX +0.7% SP500 -0.73 XOI -1.6% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1562/1508/2.14 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1453/1777/1.70 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $55; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(1-08-07) Waning full moon and lunatics suckers bear market rally into the close as the wall street fraud continues to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 25 S&P up 3, and NASDAQ up 3, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Jawboning by kohn of print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Wall Street Holds on to Slim Advance
AP - Wall Street held on to thin gains Monday as investors weighed fluctuating oil prices and profit warnings against a fresh round of acquisition activity that reflected companies' confidence in the economy.

Oil Prices Fall on Mild Weather Concerns AP
Consumer Borrowing Jumps in November
AP
Economists: Job Growth Under Bush Slower
AP
Gap Stock Rises on News of Possible Sale
AP

Following Friday's sharp market decline, it wasn't a big surprise to see stocks bounce back to some extent Monday. However, market gains were modest at best as encouraging Fed speak, upbeat analyst commentary in the tech sector and M&A activity were barely enough to help ease lingering concerns about Q4 profit growth.As a reminder, earnings season officially begins tomorrow with Alcoa's (AA 28.51 -0.25) Q4 report after the bell. Current projections call for Q4 2006 operating earnings on the S&P 500 to increase 9-10%. That would be the smallest increase in quarterly earnings expansion since early 2002 and, if results check in at the low of that range, snap 13 straight quarters of double-digit profit growth.Helping investors eventually look past such worries and pare morning losses were afternoon comments from Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn. With economic data of late feeding concerns that policy makers won't cut interest rates anytime soon, Kohn's testimony was monitored closely for any evidence to suggest the "soft landing" is still on track.Even though Kohn warned that a decrease in inflation was "by no means assured," the Fed's most influential central banker after Chairman Ben Bernanke said the "economy appears to be weathering the downturn in housing with limited collateral effects and inflation appears to be easing." Kohn, in a Q&A session, discounted the inverted yield curve's history of preceding recessions.  That view offered some relief that contributed to a turnaround in Financials.The Financials sector, which Briefing.com rates as "Overweight," got an added boost from strength in the brokerage group. Goldman Sachs (GS 203.73 +4.68) was the group's best performer (+2.4%) following reports that it was hired by Gap, Inc. (GPS 20.26 +1.37) to assist the struggling retailer in strategic alternatives that could include a possible sale. Gap spiking as much as 11% intraday was the driving catalyst behind a turnaround in Consumer Discretionary.Technology was another bright spot for investors. IBM (IBM 98.90 +1.48) was the day's best performing Dow component (+1.5%), closing at a two-year high after it was upgraded at UBS. EMC Corp (EMC 14.08 +0.47) and Network Appliance (NTAP 40.23 +1.16), which were also upgraded at UBS along with semiconductor stocks, provided additional sector support.After surging more than 2% in early trading and climbing back above $57/bbl, amid colder temps and short covering, oil prices closing lower without the Energy sector sacrificing much in the way of upside leadership was another source of support. Crude for February delivery finished near $56/bbl amid renewed skepticism OPEC will be as aggressive with announced production cuts. DJ30 +25.48 DJTA +0.3% NASDAQ +3.95 SOX +0.6% SP500 +3.13 XOI +0.2% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1507/1537/1.90 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1349/1913/1.51 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $56; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(1-05-07) Stocks drop still only modestly relative to reality with suckers bear market rally still intact as the wall street fraud continues to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average fell 82.68 S&P fell 8.63 ,and NASDAQ fell 19.18 , all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Falling Oil Prices Should Help Drivers
AP - U.S. drivers could start seeing lower prices at the pump as early as this weekend, thanks to the cascading price of crude oil and a seasonal dip in gasoline, analysts say.

Mediacom May Lose 22 Sinclair Stations AP
Hilton Slammed in Oslo for Cuba Embargo
AP
Hiring, Wages Up Strongly in December
AP
Bernanke: Banks Gain From Fed Regulation
AP

Stocks closed lower across the board as reduced expectations of a Fed rate cut anytime soon and revived worries about corporate profit growth overshadowed surprisingly strong jobs growth. A burgeoning sense that the market is ripe for a pullback of some sort also contributed to a day of broad-based consolidation.With earnings season officially beginning next week, Motorola (MOT 18.94 -1.61) cutting its Q4 guidance kicked things off on a sour note, pushing the stock down as much as 12% in early trading before shares closed down nearly 8% - the biggest one-day decline in about four years. Motorola's preannouncement prompted several analysts to lower their ratings and estimates, which brought the valuations of other tech names into question as well. Seventeen of 18 companies in the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index losing ground, due largely to multiple analyst downgrades (e.g. INTC, BRCM, NVDA, MRVL) also weighed on the sector and contributed to the tech-heavy Nasdaq turning in the day's worst performance among the majors.The biggest news item of the day, though, was the closely-watched employment report given its influence on the market's outlook for the economy and Fed policy. At 8:30 ET, the Labor Dept. showed that nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly rose 167K in December and that the unemployment rate held steady at a still historically low 4.5%. Thus, it appears the Fed is still on pace to engineer a soft landing, as the data assuaged previous concerns about the severity of the economic slowdown.However, with the Fed more concerned that the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain inflation pressures, a larger than expected 0.5% rise in hourly earnings, and what it can mean for Fed policy, acted as an offset to the biggest payroll gain in eight months. Even though wage gains remain supportive for consumer spending, the fact that hourly earnings rose the most since April, which will push inflation higher over time, diminished the likelihood of a Fed easing in early 2007.Fed funds futures now show only a 6% chance of a rate cut in late March, down from 17% a day earlier, and price in only a 50-50 possibility of a rate cut through the first half of 2007.Aside from profit taking across the board in Technology on the heels of yesterday's 1.8% tech rally, the absence of notable leadership from the rate-sensitive Financials sector further underscored the uphill battle faced by the bulls Friday.Treasuries, which were pricing in a weaker than expected read on payrolls, completely reversed course in early action. Bond yields surging across the curve, with the spread between the 2 and 10-year note slipping deeper into inversion, took an added toll on banks borrowing money at short-term rates. Boston Fed President and voting member Cathy Minehan noting that the inversion "may be flashing yellow," in it's projection of slowing economic growth, exacerbated the lack of enthusiasm to own Financials.Energy, though, was a bright spot for investors for the first time in three sessions. However, renewed interest in beaten down energy stocks came at the expense of a 1.2% rebound in oil prices following their largest two-day decline (-8.9%) in two years. While oil's recovery lent some reassurance that energy profits will again be a large contributor to the overall earnings picture for the S&P 500, the commodity's potential to sustain inflation pressure served as a reminder about the Fed's concerns about inflation risks and merely added uncertainty as to when policy makers will ease. BTK -0.7% DJ30 -82.68 DJTA -1.3% DJUA -1.7% DOT -0.4% NASDAQ -19.18 NQ100 -0.4% R2K -1.8% SOX -1.1% SP400 -1.1% SP500 -8.63 XOI +0.4% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2274/807/2.09 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2451/813/1.67 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $56; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(1-04-07) Blazing full moon and lunatics suckers bear market rally into the close as the wall street fraud continues to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 6 S&P up 1, and NASDAQ up 30, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

GM Vows to Defend Title Against Toyota
AP - If Toyota Motor Corp. has eyes on taking the title of world's largest automaker from General Motors Corp. next year, it won't happen without a fight.

Eclipse Sells Its 1st Very Light Jet AP
Stores Report Disappointing Dec. Sales
AP
Gap Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season
AP
New Budget Airline Debuts in Malaysia
AP

After yesterday's afternoon reversal of fortune, stocks got back on the buying track Thursday; but to the chagrin of many blue chips, almost all of the momentum was centered on the Nasdaq. The Dow and S&P 500 closed to the upside, but gains were minimal, while the Nasdaq turned in an impressive 1.3% gain. The catalysts behind today's action ranged from mixed monthly retail sales and economic data to another sell-off in oil prices and lower interest rates. However, upbeat analyst commentary and corporate news on a handful of Nasdaq bellwethers were the sparks behind today's developments. Among the biggest movers and most influential components on the tech-heavy Composite was Intel (INTC 21.25 +0.90). The chip giant, which is also a suggested holding in the Briefing.com Active Portfolio, soared 4.4% after Banc of America raised its Q4 and full-year profit forecasts. Bargain hunting interest appears to have played an added role behind making last year's worst performing Dow component (-18%) today's best performer on the price-weighted index. Cisco Systems (CSCO 28.41 +0.68), another recommended holding, surged 2.5% to a multi-year high as investors applauded its move into the security space by acquiring IronPort Systems for $830 mln. Google (GOOG 482.42 +14.83) posting 3.2% advance, amid reports that is expanding into mobile search in China by teaming up with the country's largest cellphone carrier, provided additional sector support, as did a 4.5% gain in Qualcomm (QCOM 39.16 +1.70). Aside from Technology's 1.8% advance to pace just three other sectors turning in positive performances, notable leadership from Health Care (+1.0%) also provided some support for the Nasdaq. The sector got its biggest boost from strength in biotech following analyst upgrades on Amgen (AMGN 71.33 +2.93) and Genzyme (GENZ 65.60 +3.45). The absence of leadership from Energy (-1.9%) for a third consecutive session, though, continued to act as an overhang, minimizing blue-chip gains. The fact that oil prices tacked a 4.4% decline onto yesterday's 4.5% sell-off, however, provided the boost to investor confidence behind late-day recovery efforts on the Dow and S&P. Crude for February delivery closed at $55.78/bbl amid more warm weather forecasts and following much larger than expected builds in weekly distillate supplies and gasoline inventories. On the economic front, the Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell in December to 57.1, but that was down from an unexpectedly strong read a month earlier. Even though that figure was basically in line with economists' forecasts and the report typically doesn't get a whole lot of attention, any evidence that economic growth is moderating left investors wondering if stocks remain overbought on a short-term basis. The Treasury market rallied on the news and the drop in market rates served as another catalyst behind the upward momentum in growth stocks typically dependent on borrowing. DJ30 +6.17 NASDAQ +30.27 SP500 +1.74 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1326/1750/2.12 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1678/1624/1.65 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $55; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(1-3-07) Full moon and Stocks drop still only modestly relative to reality with suckers bear market rally into the close to end mixed as the wall street fraud continues to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 11.37 S&P fell 1.70 ,and NASDAQ up 7.87 , all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). The ism index up slightly to 51.4 (they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!) but fed knows they�ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge debt/deficits, trade and budget. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

Britain Debates Key Globalization Puzzle
AP - Headlines ahead of the New Year portrayed a country of job seeking-Britons brushed aside by Bulgarians and overrun by Romanians.

Ford CEO Cancels Order for Lexus AP
Jeff Bezos Shows Off Spacecraft Test
AP
Ads Ask Jewelers to Boycott Alaska Mine
AP
Oil Prices Remain Under $59 a Barrel
AP

What was shaping up to be a very strong start to 2007 actually ended on a rather lackluster note, as diminishing hopes of a possible interest rate cut left the sustainability of a nearly six-month rally in stocks up for debate. With U.S. markets closed Tuesday to commemorate the recent passing of President Ford, and equity markets rallying around the world, investors feeling left behind embraced upbeat corporate news, some positive analyst commentary, falling oil prices and the seasonality factor to get back into buying mode. As a reminder, today marked the second-to-last trading day of the classic year-end Santa Claus rally which, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac, has resulted in an average return of 1.5% for the S&P 500 since 1950. In fact, an influx of new fund inflows that typically hit the market on the first day of trading for the month/quarter/year, as evidenced by the biggest volume in several weeks, provided an additional floor of market support. After contracting for the first time in more than three years, the ISM index rebounding to 51.4 in December (from a sub-50 read in November) provided even more confirmation that manufacturing is holding up nicely, helping to alleviate the worst of recession fears. In fact, the report more than offset monthly ADP employment data that suggested Friday's closely-watched and more credible Dec. jobs report will disappoint. Throw in Wal-Mart (WMT 47.50 +1.32) providing an additional vote of confidence about the health of the consumer, after saying December same-store sales rose more than expected, the surprise resignation of Home Depot (HD 41.12 +0.96) Chairman and CEO Robert Nardelli, and bargain hunters jumping at the chance to buy last year's worst performing Dow component, Intel (INTC 20.32 +0.07), and Wednesday had all the makings of a broad-based rally. Intel was up more than 3% at one point, providing a huge boost for the influential Tech sector. Be that as it may, with the market pricing in the chances of a soft landing for the U.S. economy and an eventual Fed rate cut, investors already anxious about what the FOMC minutes from the December 12 meeting would say about inflation and the direction of Fed policy grew even more concerned in afternoon trading. At 2:00 ET, investors sifted through a report showing that all Fed members agreed that the risk of inflation failing to moderate remained the "predominant concern." With the market even more preoccupied about the pace of economic growth, several policy makers also acknowledging that the "downside risks to economic growth in the near term had increased a little," with economic activity in the second half of this year probably "a touch softer than had been expected," also took a toll on overall sentiment. In fact, today's volatile action resulted in the biggest range for the Dow (175 points) since August 2006. Oil prices posting their biggest one-day decline (-4.5%) since April 27, 2005 (-4.8%), was another source of support; but the subsequent absence of leadership in the Energy sector (-3.7%) also served as a reminder of how crucial profits from the likes of explorers, drillers, refiners and integrated oil companies are to the overall earnings picture. Crude for February delivery slipped below $59/bbl for the first time since November 24 and closed at $58.32/bbl after the National Weather Service called for warmer temperatures through the 15th of January in the U.S. Northeast, the largest customer of heating oil. DJ30 +11.37 NASDAQ +7.87 SP500 -1.70 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1496/1624/2.30 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1870/1863/2.24 bln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $58; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

(12-29-06) Stocks drop still only modestly relative to reality with suckers bear market rally still intact as the wall street fraud continues to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average fell 38 S&P fell 6 ,and NASDAQ fell 10 , all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america (100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf, and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity. Core inflation a very unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of reality, santa rally.Investment Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go. Superstitious �Santa Claus rally�.....riiiiight! High oil price rally.....riiiiight!Totalbulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected 1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially (do you think they�re booking sales to �straw men/companies�.....I do!) and oil inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!) the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus 52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up(OIL PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil inventories down and oil prices up, oil producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at sharply lower prices. DOLLAR PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOWIn other words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of worthless american paper now being shunned by more rational market players abroad.MARKETS ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact, unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in thefraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight! More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is their real product, etc.) �..riiiiight!�.. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also known as b**l s**t, along with IPO�s (get the suckers in at the highs as in late 90�s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth: US housing slump deepens, spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality.Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight. Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought, overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good �..riiiiight�..but savings rate still negative and walmart sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck, they�re wallstreet lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking) based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall street think they're "tough" when they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the mock stock market with money the nation doesn�t have (increasing already huge deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment obligations are based) lower than expected�..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming�.. riiiiight Core inflation rate which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The alice-in-wonderland lunatic wall street frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News�.. riiiiight!..... Consumer Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight �..despite printing worthless dollars like they�re going out of style because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality of u.s. debt service at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge account with ie., China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest rates can�t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary, the fed says booo as they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ]. Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t from Yahoo (which didn�t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):

AT&T Closes BellSouth Deal After FCC OK
AP - AT&T Inc. completed its $86 billion buyout of BellSouth Corp., the largest telecommunications takeover in U.S. history, shortly after the Federal Communications Commission unanimously approved the deal on Friday.

Tax Forms Mailed With Soc. Sec. Numbers AP
Apple Says Options Probe Clears Execs
AP
Chrysler Signs China Car Deal
AP
Oil Prices End 2006 Where They Started
AP

2006 was a very good year for the stock market.  Today, however, was a different story as the market lacked any real spirit due to a virtual dearth of actionable news and sparse attendance by market participants.In expected fashion, the indices spent most of the day confined to tight trading ranges that left them hovering around the unchanged mark.  There was some late-day profit taking, though, that left them near their worst levels of the session.The biggest news of the day was the word from the NYSE that it will be closed on Tuesday in observance of President Ford's death.  The Nasdaq, the commodity markets, and the Federal Reserve will also be closed.  The bond market is going to be open on Tuesday as the U.S. Treasury proceeds with 3-month and 6-month bill auctions, but it will have an early close.This development means that most market participants will get the benefit of a four-day weekend.  That was about the only real note of excitement on a day that was driven mostly by company-specific announcements.  To that end, Apple (AAPL 84.84, +3.97) was a standout after acknowledging that it improperly dated stock options, but that it found no wrongdoing or misconduct by the current management team.Separately, AT&T (T 35.75, +0.25) reportedly made concessions in a bid to gain the FCC's endorsement of its acquisition of BellSouth (BLS 47.11, +0.31).  That news propped up the telecom sector (+0.32%), which was the day's best-performer and the only sector to record a gain.Losses in the remaining sectors were modest in scope, as Energy (-0.94%) earned the label of being the biggest laggard in today's session.  However, the Energy sector closed the year as the second best-performing sector with a gain of 22.6%.  It was beaten out by Telecom Services, which surged 32.5%.2006 Performance Review:  Dow Jones Industrial Average (+16.29%), Nasdaq Composite (+9.52%), S&P 500 (+13.62%); Russell 2000 (+17.00%), S&P 400 Midcap index (+8.98%).DJ30 -38.37 NASDAQ -10.28 SP500 -6.43 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1835/1256/1.19 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2037/1278/964.8 mln

The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.

U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington � First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. �I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,� said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. �The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,� Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. �Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.� Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent � the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. �The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,� BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. �People are being very cautious,� said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. �The housing crunch is now hurting.� At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers � Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. � reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. �This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,� Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.

There is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C.. Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks�..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland" lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down.Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, previously wrote,� U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B, Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell Recall Stems From sony Production FlawWASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion, still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed�s temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart money.Yahoo previously commented: Friday was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000 and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44% chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I�ll give you wild: GM says their quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars; meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod (anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it (past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis �..riiiiight�.. daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation practices. Don�t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term treasuries/funds, etc.. However it�s not rational investors that are racking up commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable (investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended quite badly; oil prices now above $61; yes, as in the last crash, they will get fooled again� as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush�s failed war policies would have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on and playing the �better than expectations� game with the still very substantial deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6 percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the (fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will try to tell you what�s up is down and what�s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they�ve stopped reporting M3) and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin� to the contrary; foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don�t forget: the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations, particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.

US '.....going bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank.

A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.

Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked.

According to his central analysis, "the US government is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.

The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product. This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have deficits north of 3pc of GDP.

Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says: "The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.

"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be going broke."

Experts have calculated that the country's long-term "fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.

The figure is massive because President George W Bush has made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by 143pc."

The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."

UPDATE - Two former NYSE traders found guilty of fraud

Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too optimistic

Commentary: Newsletters react to stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June, although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit down days.

Not good.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.

He simply remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."

What is Wrong with the Stock Market?

Dr. Khaled Batarfi

 

John D. Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing the market, I knew there was something wrong.....

 

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July 17Tue Jul 18, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

������������� July 17 July 14 (respectively)

Fed acct4.087 4.935

Tax/loan note acct 10.502 10.155

Cash balance 14.589 15.192

National debt,

subject to limit 8,311.633 8,323.084

The statutory debt limit is $8.965 trillion.

The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.

End Of The Bubble Bailouts A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans� spending binge has been fueled by a declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a quarter-century.

The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable income doesn�t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).

Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according to the Federal Reserve.

But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20% decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.

That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be? And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will swoon in coming quarters?

One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10 trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve�s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion, will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.

Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the 2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to spend like drunken sailors.

What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth, almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren�t any other big assets left to tap. Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble is deflating.

Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2 trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There�s $6.7 trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.

Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it up now and take the Scarlett O�Hara, �I�ll worry about that tomorrow� attitude toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.

The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5 trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them. But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don�t share their bosses� zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than $20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of employees earning $100,000 or more participate.

Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total, probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003 to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not yet vested and can�t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59� years old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.

With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I�ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.

Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading
THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW Vol. 79, No. 1 2004 pp. 125�149 Analysts� Forecasts and
Brokerage-Firm Trading
Paul J. Irvine Emory University University of Georgia
Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

WHISPERS OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.

WALL STREET SUCKERS' RALLY-Energy Information Administration (EIA) showing that U.S. oil inventories rose - Riiiiight!
"You can believe the fraudulent criminal american government"
Just like the WMD's in Iraq,
that they went to the moon 35 years ago NOT!
but decided not to go back for 35 years
but now say maybe in 10 years they'll be able to get back there. NOT!
Oswald the lone gunman and the Warren Report
the 911 commission report/coverup
the u.s. war on illegal drugs - criminal criminal america verses criminal america
The Frauds on wall street love these lies like those preceding the last debacle/major market fraud
"Oil reserves exceed previous estimates and China/India vow to stop using oil immediately, like in fallen criminal america's "hay day"
The Santa Clause Rally is here because the frauds on wall street are so jolly and generous around Christmas.....Riiiiight!
Those Economic Numbers Are Typical Criminal american B**l S**t!.....

Sartre, Courtesy of Etherzone.com, on the Typical Criminal american B**l S**t: "The official rate of inflation is a lie. Look at the expense on essentials. The price tag of food has gone through the roof. Energy, medical, insurance and education costs are unbearable. As the rise in local and state taxes far out pace any minimal reductions on the federal level. The huge balance of payments trade shortfall is no accident. Government deficits grow, as massive debt piles up. No wonder the laws of economic veracity require a loss of purchasing power in the value of the currency".

Insiders Selling At A Rate Of 5 to 1!
'Peak Oil' Has Been Reached [In Part The Work Of The criminal american (think tank/neo-cons/titans of industry/cia/nsa,etc.) "geniuses" who have built up communist China militarily and economically].

  • Record High Oil Prices
  • Consumer Confidence (consumption 65% of GNP) Down
  • Record High Deficits (budget, trade, attention, intelligence, etc.)

YOU CAN'T BELIEVE A WORD THEY SAY!

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