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Full Moons, Fraud, and Lunatics. What More Can Be Said.Current Market Numbers/Closing Prices From YahooCurrent Wall Street Lunacy Updates 2008Wall Street Lunacy 1st Quarter 2008
(1-16-08) Economist Dr. Irving Kellner…..already in recession, monetary policy (rate cuts, etc.) will not help in such a scenario, collateralized mortgage securities have become worthless so write-downs, no bottom until housing/real estate falls further, consumer saving rates low, debt levels high, worse to come…..Economist Lawrence Summers says recession could be long and severe…..bankruptcies up 40%, industrial production flat, inflation up and much higher than reported DEFAULTS UP, Housing down, inflation up, consumer confidence down SHARPLY, TRADE DEFICIT NEAR RECORD AND ABOVE EXPECTATIONS, RETAIL SALES DOWN AND FAR BELOW EXPECTATIONS, ALREADY IN RECESSION DESPITE JAWBONING (BULL S**T) TO THE CONTRARY, fake economic reports/data, more bull s**t/spin, dollar to fall even further with fed panic, as stocks drop modestly relative to reality (DOW -34, NASDAQ –23, S&P -7). REALITY: THIS IS A BEAR MARKET IN A SECULAR BEAR MARKET IN A RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A SECULAR (AND QUITE PERMANENT-THEY’VE MADE ALL THE WRONG CHOICES) ECONOMIC DOWNTREND IN THE U.S. ONE ANALYST/REPORTER/JOURNALIST FROM INSIDE SOURCES PEGS THE SUB-PRIME DOLLAR VALUE OF THE SHILLED WORTHLESS PAPER AT $516 TRILLION (EVEN A PERCENTAGE OF SAME RENDERS THE PROBLEM UNFIXABLE-HENCE, CULPABLE PARTIES MUST BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE AND DISGORGE THEIR ILL-GOTTEN GAINS FROM, IE., COMMISSIONING WORTHLESS PAPER, TAKING A POINT HERE OR THERE AND FRAUDULENTLY PASSING SAME ON, AD INFINITUM, ETC.). Time to put the wall street among other corporate frauds in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their ill-gotten gains.(1-15-08) weaker than expected retail sales report for December, Wholesale Prices Up 6.3% in '07- Largest amount in 26 years,Dollar hits record low vs Swiss franc ,Survey: Asia, Europe Has World's Freest Economies,Citigroup raises a whopping diluting $14.5 billion, cuts dividend, announces layoffs, $18 billion in write-downs and more to follow as subprime losses mount DEFAULTS UP, Housing down, inflation up, consumer confidence down SHARPLY, TRADE DEFICIT NEAR RECORD AND ABOVE EXPECTATIONS, RETAIL SALES DOWN AND FAR BELOW EXPECTATIONS, ALREADY IN RECESSION DESPITE JAWBONING (BULL S**T) TO THE CONTRARY, as stocks drop modestly relative to reality (DOW -277, NASDAQ –60, S&P -35). REALITY: THIS IS A BEAR MARKET IN A SECULAR BEAR MARKET IN A RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A SECULAR (AND QUITE PERMANENT-THEY’VE MADE ALL THE WRONG CHOICES) ECONOMIC DOWNTREND IN THE U.S. Time to put the wall street among other corporate frauds in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their ill-gotten gains.(1-14-08) OIL PRICE RALLY RALLIES STOCKS, DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY CONSISTENT WITH FED PANIC, COMMODITIES/GOLD UP SHARPLY/RECORDS, STAGFLATION, IBM SO EXCITED THEY PREMATURELY JAWBONE STOCKS HIGHER WITH THE RHETORIC THAT HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN…..RIIIIIGHT!, DEFAULTS UP, Housing down, inflation up, consumer confidence down SHARPLY, TRADE DEFICIT NEAR RECORD AND ABOVE EXPECTATIONS, RETAIL SALES DOWN AND FAR BELOW EXPECTATIONS, ALREADY IN RECESSION DESPITE JAWBONING (BULL S**T) TO THE CONTRARY, lunatics’/suckers’ bear market rally/dead dog bounce (DOW +171, NASDAQ +38, S&P +15) REALITY: THIS IS A BEAR MARKET IN A SECULAR BEAR MARKET IN A RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A SECULAR (AND QUITE PERMANENT-THEY’VE MADE ALL THE WRONG CHOICES) ECONOMIC DOWNTREND IN THE U.S. Time to put the wall street among other corporate frauds in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their ill-gotten gains. (1-11-08) DEFAULTS UP, Housing down, inflation up, consumer confidence down SHARPLY, TRADE DEFICIT NEAR RECORD AND ABOVE EXPECTATIONS, RETAIL SALES DOWN AND FAR BELOW EXPECTATIONS, ALREADY IN RECESSION DESPITE JAWBONING (BULL S**T) TO THE CONTRARY, STAGFLATION, dollar down as stocks drop modestly relative to reality (DOW -247, NASDAQ –49, S&P -19). Nothing has fundamentally changed regarding the descent and decline of criminal/fraud banana republic america and the already bad news is worse than acknowledged. Watch for the fake economic reports/data, more bull s**t/spin, ie., insiders not selling-real reason is their fear of fraud prosecutions (they’ve known for quite some time that the business/economic scenario is much worse than purported/reported and have” made their hay” already predicated on same with many multimillion dollar pay packages for which disgorgement is appropriate), etc. Time to put the wall street among other corporate frauds in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their ill-gotten gains. (1-10-08) Good money after bad is the mantra on wall street as BofA with $2 billion already in Countrywide says they’ll shoot-the-moon, take the whole ball of wax, eat the whole thing, keep the fraud ball rolling/covered, etc., which rallies stocks based on bull s**t alone, notably that of fed head bernanke who jawbones (bull s**ts) stocks higher with promised rate cuts, even weaker dollar, and even higher hyperinflation thereby. Retail sales down and far below expectations, already in recession despite jawboning (bull s**t) to the contrary, stagflation. Citibank and Merrill Lynch desperately seek to sell more of themselves to foreign interests to cover substantial losses/fraud. Merrill Lynch to write down another $15 billion and more to come. American Express to write off more than $440 million in bad credit card debt. One respected analyst/fund manager says we’re in a bear market having broken through all resistence levels. Lunatics’/suckers’ bear market rally/dead dog bounce into the close (dow +117, nasdaq +13, s&p +11) to keep the suckers suckered and computerized commission trade dollars flowing. Time to put the wall street frauds in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their illgotten gains. (1-9-08) Happy days are here again (REALITY SAYS NOT) say the frauds on wall street with new bull s**t talking point that the newly (not really, just covered up to perpetuate the fraud) discovered fact that we’re already in recession and that means rate cuts to make the dollar even more worthless and the hyperinflation even more hyper, and that the now conceded reality of recession will be short-lived. How about reality that the same marks the (continuation)beginning of a downturn from which there will be no coming back for criminal/fraud america. Economic 9/11 Just as the Twin Towers collapsed from the top
down, so too will the US economy from an Economic 9/11, when the high-stake
speculators, banks, brokerages, and buyout firms that leveraged billions with
millions get hit with reality. The Panic
of 08 Failing banks, busted brokerages,
toppled corporate giants, bankrupt cities, states in default, foreign creditors
cashing out of US securities … whatever the spark, the stage is set for panic
in the streets. America’s broke and the whole world knows it. As america’s
economy spirals down and that the dollar will fall with it, foreign creditors
are dumping dollars on the market … and even Third World street vendors don’t
want to take greenbacks any longer. The further it falls, the less it’s worth.
The less it’s worth, the less it buys. In the real world they call it
"inflation." In america they call it "good for business." http://www.trendsresearch.com Time to put the wall street frauds in jail and
require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their illgotten gains. Lunatics’/suckers’ bear
market rally/dead dog bounce into the close (DOW +146, NASDAQ +34, S&P +18)
to keep the suckers suckered and computerized commission trade dollars flowing.
(1-8-08) Housing down, inflation up, consumer confidence down, oil prices up,
dollar down as stocks drop modestly relative to reality (DOW -238, NASDAQ –58,
S&P -25). Nothing has fundamentally changed regarding the descent and
decline of criminal/fraud america and the already bad news is worse than
acknowledged. $14 billion ($21 billion in 2006) in bonuses to the
lunatic/frauds on wall street for a commissionable (sub prime bundled) fraud
well done, inflation up, dollar down, oil prices up, manufacturing down; one
analyst/reporter/journalist from inside sources pegs the sub-prime dollar value
of the shilled worthless paper at $516 TRILLION (even a percentage of same renders
the problem unfixable-hence, culpable parties must be held accountable and
disgorge their ill-gotten gains from, ie., commissioning worthless paper,
taking a point here or there and fraudulently passing same on, ad infinitum,
etc.). (1-7-08) With sloth-like
reflexes and speed the fallible frauds on wall street now recognize, yes we’re
already in a recession, with new bull s**t talking point, that’s good for some
stocks - NOT says reality- as lunatics’/suckers’ bear market rally/dead dog
bounce into the close (DOW +27, NASDAQ –5, S&P +4) to keep the suckers
suckered and computerized commission trade dollars flowing. Despite severe
inflation (the fed excludes food and energy from their
fake/worthless/meaningless calculation, because it’s allegedly cyclical…..riiiiight!
And everything else is imported cheap for the purpose of increasing the deficit
and eliminating u.s. jobs) the frauds are hoping for more fake gov’t reports,
rate cuts to make the dollar even more worthless and inflation greater, etc., and
hope they’ll escape accountability for their fraud ($14 billion in bonuses,$21
billion in 2006, on top of huge salaries, etc.). (1-4-08) Small dose of reality
as unemployment rises to 5% and stocks drop modestly relative to reality (DOW
-256, NASDAQ –98, S&P -35). Nothing has fundamentally changed regarding the
descent and decline of criminal/fraud america and the already bad news is worse
than acknowledged. (1-3-08) Despite
economists expectations of fewer new jobs, ADP, a jersey based company not
unfamiliar to the fraud/crime of placing fake/non-existent employees on
payrolls to facilitate (illegal/drug) money laundering plays ball (I’m sure for
a price/favor) with the frauds on wall street with a figure in excess of same
(40,000) with the labor department also chiming in with fake data; durables
down, auto sales down (Ford now #3); bull s**t talking points for lunatics’/suckers’ bear market rally/dead
dog bounce into the close (DOW +13, NASDAQ –6, S&P +0) to keep the suckers
suckered and computerized commission trade dollars flowing. (1-2-08)Modest drop
relative to reality on wall street, as DOW drops 221, S&P down 21 and
NASDAQ down 42. $14 billion ($21 billion in 2006) in bonuses to the
lunatic/frauds on wall street for a commissionable (sub prime bundled) fraud
well done, inflation up, dollar down, oil prices up, manufacturing down; one
analyst/reporter/journalist from inside sources pegs the sub-prime dollar value
of the shilled worthless paper at $516 TRILLION (even a percentage of same
renders the problem unfixable-hence, culpable parties must be held accountable
and disgorge their ill-gotten gains from, ie., commissioning worthless paper,
taking a point here or there and fraudulently passing same on, ad infinitum,
etc.). manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4
(they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!)
but fed knows they’ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course
is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge
debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores
Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap
Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar
Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the
new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised
downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america
(100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on
lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf,
and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions
of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest
increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core
ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all
unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland
lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally
along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity.
Core inflation a very
unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of
reality, santa rally. Investment
Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on
worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america
has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty
record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on
precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go.
Superstitious ‘Santa Claus rally’.....riiiiight! High oil price
rally.....riiiiight! Total bulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected
1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially
(do you think they’re booking sales to ‘straw men/companies’.....I do!) and oil
inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!)
the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in
unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending
and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the
housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers
continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a
more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as
many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus
52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the
50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up (OIL
PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR
RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke &
Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil
inventories down and oil prices up, oil
producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and
sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable
goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose
slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the
realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at
sharply lower prices. DOLLAR
PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOW In other
words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland
frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple
deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is
behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of
worthless american paper now being shunned by more
rational market players abroad. MARKETS
ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN
DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e
ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this
indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented
structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget
deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact,
unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment
unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland
world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in
starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland
world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this
massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New
talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing
government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight!
More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected
rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is
their real product, etc.) …..riiiiight!….. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also
known as b**l s**t, along with IPO’s (get the suckers
in at the highs as in late 90’s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive
stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the
worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious
metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought
that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth:
US housing slump deepens,
spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower
guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the
fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing
worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and
there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the
fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped
with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The
frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for
which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The
know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is
predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a
tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom
lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is
tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall
street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross
the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit
indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur
the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality. Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight.
Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only
surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now
saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding
economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought,
overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations.
Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good …..riiiiight…..but savings rate still
negative and walmart
sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck,
they’re wallstreet
lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit
spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless
falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to
come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as
frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking)
based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have
pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as
bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must
restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world
of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative
pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the
accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall
street think they're "tough" when
they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based
reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with
sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite
lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the
mock stock market with money the nation doesn’t have (increasing already huge
deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment
obligations are based) lower than expected…..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the
lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with
yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming….. riiiiight Core inflation rate
which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill
Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and
reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if
any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your
pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade
deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The
alice-in-wonderland
lunatic wall street
frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman
said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will
probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The
Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in
September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News….. riiiiight!..... Consumer
Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were
down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US
Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home
prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election
that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight …..despite printing worthless dollars like they’re going out of style
because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality
of u.s. debt service
at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge
account with ie.,
China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new
trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year
purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the
so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and
must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks
move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest
rates can’t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary,
the fed says booo as
they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the
frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ].
Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of
manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since
April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition
to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest
level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home
sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders
which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world
of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t
from Yahoo (which didn’t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):
Housing Construction
Hits 16-Year Low... Broken Seasonals
Suggest a Bear Market
(12-17-07) Another modest drop relative to reality on wall street as the
i word plus the r word yield the stagflation word, with Monday morning
quarterbacks very late to the game starting to talk recession, with fears of
accountability for the fraudulent run-up/bubbles weighing heavy as all the bad
news remains the same….. (12-14-07) Modest drop relative to reality on wall
street, as consumer price index shows higher than expected inflation (though
still substantially underreported) , fears they may be held accountable for
their fraud mount, and none of the sugar-coated bad news has changed….. (12-13-07) Inflation (wholesale) (though
still substantially underreported) up sharply (highest in 34 years), bond
prices fall sharply, lunatics’/suckers’ bear market rally/dead dog bounce into
the close to keep the suckers suckered and computerized commission trade
dollars flowing, all the bad news remains the same….. (12-12-07) Federal
deficit up sharply, along with oil prices (inventories fell substantially),
foreclosures up, dollar down, sparks lunatics’/suckers’ bear market rally/dead
dog bounce into the close to keep the suckers suckered and computerized
commission trade dollars flowing, while pros/institutions are tip-toeing to the
doorway leaving you with their bag of tricks/fraud/bull s**t! Nothing has
fundamentally changed regarding the descent and decline of criminal/fraud
america. (12-11-07) Modest relative to reality drop on wall street as fears
they may be held accountable for their fraud mount and nothing has changed…..
(12-10-07) The market started the week on a bulls**tish note, aided by a
financial sector that rallied again on the back of news about capital infusions
(good money after bad) despite write-downs/losses in the financial sector, ie.,
UBS, MBIA, etc.. Another fake report from the gov’t also helped the fraud.
Already sugar coated fake data/news/reports have been as bad as could be and
far worse than expected by the fed leading to new bull s**t fraud-facilitating
talking point, viz., interest rate cut expectations despite worthless dollar
and much higher than reported inflation, one analyst/reporter/journalist from
inside sources pegs the sub-prime dollar value of the shilled worthless paper
at $516 TRILLION (even a percentage of same renders the problem
unfixable-hence, culpable parties must be held accountable and disgorge their
ill-gotten gains from, ie., commissioning worthless paper, taking a point here
or there and fraudulently passing same on, ad infinitum, etc.), dollar at/near
record lows, consumer confidence down, housing/real estate/indices/prices down,
durable goods orders down more than expected .4%, leading indicators down, oil
price drop on “less demand” (riiiiight) rallied oil stocks (suuuuure)
(11-30-07), deficits, fake/false government reports/data, expectation of rate
cut because things are so bad despite higher than reported inflation and
negative effect on worthless dollar, etc., all to keep the suckers suckered and
computerized commission trade dollars flowing, while pros/institutions are
tip-toeing to the doorway leaving you with their bag of tricks/fraud/bull
s**t! Nothing has fundamentally changed regarding the descent and decline
of criminal/fraud america. Remember:
more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and
percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and
decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Very Small Fraction
Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment
Capital via, ie., ipo’S), The
Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The
Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades. Echoes former world bank leader with prediction of global recession Steve Watson A leading economic expert has warned that a global crash and recession is imminent on the back of record highs in real estate, stocks and energy, combined with a devaluation of the dollar and continued speculative bubble thinking. Robert Shiller, the Stanley B. Resor Professor of Economics at Yale University told an audience at the annual Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) Week that a sharp downward correction is due in the global markets. Shiller stated: Perhaps we have gotten a little too confident in the global economic growth, said Shiller. The problem is high oil, stock and real estate prices. I believe that a substantial part is speculative bubble thinking. We have gotten too confident of the prices in these markets. Dom Armentano Lew Rockwell.com Thursday December 6, 2007 Presidential election years usually are not recessionary but next year will be an exception. Several economic factors are colliding in an almost perfect storm to markedly slow the general economy and the stock market. The most important signal flashing recession is, of course, the sub-prime mortgage fiasco. After years of monetary inflation on the part of the Federal Reserve, individuals and families with poor credit were suckered into low-down-payment/low-interest adjustable mortgages that simply cannot be maintained or repaid under current conditions. Their incentive is to sell the property quickly before their equity evaporates and/or the financial institution repossesses it. Yet the massive oversupply of homes and condos for sale has pushed prices down at a record clip and made additional foreclosures even more likely. Next year, unfortunately, will be the Year of the Auction. The financial institutions have also been punished…well sort of. Various institutions including hedge funds that hold these poorly performing debt obligations have been forced (by accounting rules) to "write down" the value of these assets, take huge paper losses in the bargain, and pull in their financial horns. Thus, any near-term recovery in housing must now fight a record supply availability, falling prices, higher insurance costs and restricted credit…a near-term impossibility in my view. Moreover, the slowdown in residential and commercial construction will send secondary ripple effects throughout the economy. Laid-off construction workers don't spend money. Construction and home furnishing suppliers sell less output and make fewer investments. Even local governments will be pinched by declining property-tax assessments and fewer developer fees. Things are likely to get worse before they get any better. The second major factor indicating a near-term recession is the sky-high price of crude oil and refined product. Pushed upward by world-wide speculative Mid-East war fears and increases in demand (especially from China), increasing energy prices act as an inflationary "tax" on domestic production and consumption throughout the market economy. Higher costs of production will lower profits; higher prices will reduce some consumption. The only good news here is that any substantial economic slowdown in 2008 will eventually moderate the price of oil and other commodity prices as well. The third factor in the current recession scenario – and the real wild card – is the continuing decline in the value of the dollar in international money markets caused by our Iraq blunder and the Federal Reserve–generated oversupply of dollars. Some economists would argue that a devalued dollar is good for U.S. exports, and thus positive for the economy as a whole. I disagree for three reasons. First, the bulk of crude oil purchases takes place in dollars; a falling dollar translates into still higher crude oil prices. Second, the U. S. dollar is the major reserve currency of the international monetary system and dollar-paying investments (such as U.S. Treasury bills and bonds) are held in massive amounts by foreign banks and governments. Dollar devaluation makes these investments less attractive and any disinvestment in these areas would sharply drive bond prices down and increase interest rates. The third reason why dollar devaluation makes recession more likely is that it effectively prevents the Federal Reserve from pushing U.S. interest rates much lower. Any additional Fed easing (inflation) would be seen as a signal of even further future dollar devaluation and even higher dollar prices for oil. Unfortunately, we will not be able to "inflate" our way out of this recession this time. We will simply have to take our lumps and let market forces liquidate the bulk of the malinvestments caused by the unprecedented Greenspan money bubble. This liquidation process will not be pretty but it is necessary to restore a sustainable economic recovery in the years ahead. FROM THE SUB-PRIME TO THE RIDICULOUS: HOW $100B VANISHED... PAPER: TOP ECONOMIST SAYS AMERICA WILL PLUNGE INTO RECESSION... *(12-30-07) The best and easiest to understand analogy, though not perfect, to the wall street markets is the kiting of checks at lightning computerized trading speed on which commissions are taken although there is nothing of real value underlying their fraudulent scheme. *(12-31-07) The ubiquitous computerization of wall street functions, the enhancement/advance/integration of the said computer equipment/peripherals in terms of computing power and speed, along with the concomitant advance/sophistication of the programming concerning same has enhanced the ability of the frauds on wall street to effect their frauds with blinding speed vis-à-vis the funds entrusted to their care by way of programmed trades, ie., buy, sell, stop limits, etc.. An example (though not perfect) is illustrative: Dow drops 200 points as programmed sell orders kick in with some not so fudged negative news. Nothing changes but the following day the market rises 205 points on programmed buy orders (a little higher despite the absence of any positive news). Hence, the huge swings which have become ever so more prevalent. Though nothing has changed, hundreds of millions of dollars without relation to any value added (in economic terms, service, etc.) is taken in commissions (percentages, points, spreads) by the frauds on wall street on huge computerized trading volume (hence, the multi-billion dollar bonuses on top of huge salaries, etc.). The fact is that these funds entrusted to them are so large that such computerized “buys” can simulate other than rational demand causing prices to rise solely to generate huge commissions to them and new funds coming in (as in a ponzi scheme). The corrupt government has been complicit in terms of false economic reports, legislation protecting the fraud (ie., exemption from RICO accountability, etc.), while the courts are also corrupt facilitators (new york, etc., and similarly don’t count on arbitration panels). There was a time when transactions costs mattered in financial investment decisions. The trades/commissions are not a net positive for the economy but are indeed of great benefit to the recipients of same (who like termites eat away at other peoples’ money, and whose marginal propensity to consume is less than those allocating their monies/pensions/401ks/savings etc.; hence, the mess to follow). Finally, the NASDAQ has become the “safe haven” but in reality as in the dot.com bust days are just the great story without much fundamental understanding that keeps the fraudulent ball rolling. *(1-01-08) Remember: more contrived wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs attendant to same especially since only A Very Small Fraction Of What wall street Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital via, ie., ipo’S), The Rest Is Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via 'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades. Ron Paul indeed Out-Foxed (for now) December 31, 2007 United Nations Comic Books Designed to Brainwash Kids December 31, 2007 Ron Beats Rudy? New Hampshire could surprise a lot of people December 31, 2007 Israel: Biggest Single Self-destructive Irony of Western History Perhaps the biggest single self-destructive irony of Western history is best understood by standing in the town square of Bethlehem, allowing one’s gaze to pass over the roof top of the church that covers the stable where Jesus was supposedly born, and let one’s eye drift into the blue sky beyond and thinking: How on earth could it be that the Christians, whose belief in the divine center around Jesus’ crucifixion carried out by Roman soldiers but done at the behest of the Jewish populace, could turn round nearly two millennia later and say to the Jews in effect: We buy the argument that you are God’s chosen people and this land is your land and we are going to turn it over to you as your “national home”, even though the Arabs or their forefathers have been living here since the Romans kicked the Jews out of Babylon after demolishing the Temple in AD 70. This is what British foreign secretary, Arthur Balfour, did in his famous Declaration, strongly backed by Prime Minister Lloyd George, a religious man who saw the Jewish cause as one that must be supported by Christian charity….. US Must Re-Evaluate Its Self-destructive Relationship With Israel |
|
The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to
an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's
central bank. |
A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare
timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to
research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St
Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.
Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is
already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the
United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute,
bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors,"
he asked.
According to his central analysis, "the US government
is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who,
in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly
or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.
The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush
administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year
by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product.
This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have
deficits north of 3pc of GDP.
Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says:
"The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the
lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens
exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get
so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be
unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.
"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows
for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be
going broke."
Experts have calculated that the country's long-term
"fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future
receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the
amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total
fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study
by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.
The figure is massive because President George W Bush has
made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which
provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for
the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.
Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five
times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap
one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to
eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an
immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes.
Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and
Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to
immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by
143pc."
The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If
investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some
point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings
of US Treasury bonds.
Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has
experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the
same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries
over the past century."
UPDATE - Two former NYSE
traders found guilty of fraud
Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too
optimistic
Commentary: Newsletters react to
stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow,
MarketWatch 12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the
Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average
recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing
newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This
was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert
worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary
opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June,
although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And
since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit
down days.
Not
good.
Dow
Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks
support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type
action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic
button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.
He simply
remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with
the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But
still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and
down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money
coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market
all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the
worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."
What is Wrong with the Stock Market?
Dr. Khaled
Batarfi
John D.
Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months
before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way
to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice
about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing
the market, I knew there was something wrong.....
U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July
17Tue Jul 18, 2006
WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S.
Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's
latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):
July 17 July 14 (respectively)
Fed acct 4.087 4.935
Tax/loan note acct
10.502 10.155
Cash balance 14.589
15.192
National debt,
subject to limit
8,311.633 8,323.084
The statutory debt limit
is $8.965 trillion.
The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.
End Of The Bubble Bailouts
A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans’ spending binge has been fueled by a
declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American
consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart
below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half
percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a
quarter-century.
The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax
income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a
car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable
income doesn’t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely
linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto,
etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).
Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of
the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed
from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and
subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save
less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide
refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash
from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according
to the Federal Reserve.
But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20%
decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be
way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb
their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending
growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become
global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy
the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.
That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap
between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly
took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be?
And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will
swoon in coming quarters?
One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain
consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar
babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10
trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But
subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer
Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all
people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion,
will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar
babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.
Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the
2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for
boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that
provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to
spend like drunken sailors.
What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support
spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth,
almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of
the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren’t any other big assets left to tap.
Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble
is deflating.
Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is
in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially
conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has
sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2
trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals
are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their
total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that
homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There’s $6.7
trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is
needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.
Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it
up now and take the Scarlett O’Hara, “I’ll worry about that tomorrow” attitude
toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that
number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom
available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.
The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5
trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them.
But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don’t share
their bosses’ zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans
and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are
especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than
$20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of
employees earning $100,000 or more participate.
Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from
defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total,
probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003
to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not
yet vested and can’t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59½ years
old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.
With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I’ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.
WHISPERS
OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading
ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.
(4-30-07) STAGFLATION, AS INFLATION ABOVE EXPECTATIONS (HIGHEST IN
16 YEARS), WEAK GROWTH BELOW EXPECTATIONS, Worthless Dollar Down [they’re printing them like they’re going
out of style because they are (so much so that they’ve stopped reporting M3)], then there was also the Weimar Republic, the
pre-1929 crash rally, but this is far worse. LEGENDARY VALUE INVESTOR JEREMY GRANTHAM, CHAIRMAN
OF BOSTON FIRM GRANTHAM MAYO VAN OTTERLOO, SAYS WE ARE NOW SEEING THE FIRST
WORLDWIDE BUBBLE IN HISTORY COVERING ALL ASSET CLASSES. First, realize that the
criminal americans lie about everything, especially for money. One expert says
that with near record lows against the Euro, Pound, etc., the translation into
worthless dollars by multi-nationals artificially inflates profits/stock
prices, but that is only part of the story. The Euro Next union brings the
fraud to the european exchange rates, much like the carry trades in a
ponzi-like commissionable paper scheme in Asia, which ultimately reverts to the
mean (arbitrage) and as greenspan says, can’t last and will unravel into what
would be tantamount to hot potato/musical chairs with someone holding the
bag/precipitous decline/wiped out. The expert also correctly points out that
there is now a total disconnect between the market and the u.s. economy which
has and will continue to decline/weaken. The fact is also that although
superior to the u.s., there are substantial structural problems inherent to the
European economies. So absurd was this surge (like nutcase dumbya’s) that the
higher oil prices rallied the transports.....riiiiight! Lunatic frauds on wall street
rally on as bad business news can get, sales of previously owned homes take
biggest tumble in two decades, consumer confidence down sharply , b**l
s**t (including fake economic
reports-they lie about everything), higher oil prices, and, ie., ignoring reality regarding, erosion in consumer sentiment and one-year
inflation expectations at the highest level in 8 months, rising food and energy
costs, Systemic Recession The US is sliding into a
long-term economic downturn, ChinaMerica
America owned the 20th century, but it won't own the 21st, Dollar Down, Gold to Soar ...Real
Estate Fiz...Recession 2007 ...Catch 22 – Lower interest rates in u.s. would
decimate already worthless dollar REALITY COURTESY OF http://www.trendsresearch.com, negative inflation/economic data and
continue their backward looking frenzied rally mode despite higher oil prices,
unexpected jump in jobless claims, mortgage defaults highest in 37 years,
retailers warning that April same-store sales will be weak, and the largest
rise in import prices, Citigroup
to cut 17000 jobs and earnings down 11% but stock rallies, national mortgage delinquency rate hit an
all-time high of 2.87% in Q1, sentiment down, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the
current rate of inflation remains too high,
and on previous
stellar employment report from government ...riiiiight!..., (what about the
real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by
acturial/accounting), as previously u.s. auto sector sparks
rally...riiiiight!..., despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A
info,
both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing
home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below
expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating
mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by
unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on
previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending
on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report
(riiiiight! US
GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street’s previous b.s.
story underlying the previous week’s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t
alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with
borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home
prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it’s the weather say
the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as
home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no
problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed
heads, who’ve been printing worthless dollars like they’re going out of style
because they are (so much so
that they’ve stopped reporting M3), remove words
‘additional firming’ is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar
precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and
dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to
government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don’t) though
permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news,
builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting
reality,
obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,
previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4)
inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive
printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's
manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme
with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds continues, blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street
lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record
foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal
picture, retail sales down (they say it’s the weather.....riiiiight.....how
about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as
opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk
it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above,
revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade
deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil
inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below
expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no
problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering ‘bear market/higher oil
prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally’ (based upon b**l s**t/fake
reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat
currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary
to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of
prosecution for false statements)’ fueled by b**l s**t alone close only
moderately lower to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial
average down 58, S&P down 12, and NASDAQ down 32, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for
bush, which fell very short but has
provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999
which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge
unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the
inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is
tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes,
etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT
RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP
INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0).....
Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda
minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody’s says at least a
10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe
that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect
a member of a failed administration to say? What’s changed? Nothing, as the
frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed
(ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds.
Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior
downturns since the great depression. Bernanke
responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to
looming fiscal crisis).
Top
investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's
going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what,
paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported
goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING
SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home
sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going
to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil
rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation,
fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and
international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar
denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump;
industrial production/utilization down. Record
home price slump. Retail numbers at
best (I don’t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at
Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 -
$763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month’s improvement, and
rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t
meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC
Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt
will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe
just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings
rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories
highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%,
deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker
than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for
all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you’re a lunatic
fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great
Depression's low. Fake
economic growth report from the administration. Mergers
and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in
Ford’s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock
rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E
ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for
selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil
prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on
leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the
greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall
street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission
dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke
begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has
collapsed... Euro
displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers
(at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures
Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61%
but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading
Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns.
Jawboning by kohn of
print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake
strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4
(they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!)
but fed knows they’ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course
is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge
debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores
Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap
Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar
Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the
new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised
downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america
(100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on
lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf,
and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions
of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest
increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core
ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all
unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland
lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally
along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity.
Core inflation a very
unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of
reality, santa rally. Investment
Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on
worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america
has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty
record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on
precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go.
Superstitious ‘Santa Claus rally’.....riiiiight! High oil price
rally.....riiiiight! Total bulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected
1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially
(do you think they’re booking sales to ‘straw men/companies’.....I do!) and oil
inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!)
the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in
unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending
and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the
housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers
continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a
more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as
many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus
52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the
50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up (OIL
PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR
RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke &
Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil
inventories down and oil prices up, oil
producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and
sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable
goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose
slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the
realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at
sharply lower prices. DOLLAR
PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOW In other
words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland
frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple
deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is
behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of
worthless american paper now being shunned by more
rational market players abroad. MARKETS
ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN
DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e
ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this
indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented
structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget
deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact,
unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment
unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland
world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in
starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland
world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this
massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New
talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing
government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight!
More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected
rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is
their real product, etc.) …..riiiiight!….. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also
known as b**l s**t, along with IPO’s (get the suckers
in at the highs as in late 90’s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive
stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the
worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious
metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought
that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth:
US housing slump deepens,
spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower
guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the
fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing
worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and
there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the
fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped
with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The
frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for
which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The
know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is
predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a
tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom
lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is
tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall
street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross
the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit
indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur
the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality. Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight.
Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only
surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now
saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding
economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought,
overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations.
Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good …..riiiiight…..but savings rate still
negative and walmart
sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck,
they’re wallstreet
lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit
spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless
falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to
come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as
frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking)
based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have
pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as
bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must
restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world
of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative
pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the
accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall
street think they're "tough" when
they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based
reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with
sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite
lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the
mock stock market with money the nation doesn’t have (increasing already huge
deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment
obligations are based) lower than expected…..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the
lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with
yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming….. riiiiight Core inflation rate
which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill
Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and
reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if
any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your
pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade
deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The
alice-in-wonderland
lunatic wall street
frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman
said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will
probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The
Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in
September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News….. riiiiight!..... Consumer
Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were
down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US
Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home
prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election
that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight …..despite printing worthless dollars like they’re going out of style
because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality
of u.s. debt service
at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge
account with ie.,
China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new
trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year
purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the
so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and
must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks
move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest
rates can’t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary,
the fed says booo as
they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the
frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ].
Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of
manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since
April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition
to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest
level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home
sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders
which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world
of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t
from Yahoo (which didn’t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):
AP - Susan
Cischke admits that her vision is a little fuzzy when she looks more than two
decades into the future, but she still sees an internal combustion engine,
albeit one smaller, lighter and more fuel-efficient than the engines of today.
Circuit
City Expects 1Q Loss AP
Stocks
Fall As Traders Eye Economic Data AP
Oil
Prices Drop in Asian Trading AP
Group:
Wal-Mart Violates Workers' Rights AP
After
turning in such an impressive performance in April, it wasn't surprising to see
investors finally start to question whether valuations would be sustainable
over the near term, especially with the worst six months of the year
[historically] beginning tomorrow.Before the opening bell sounded, participants
were greeted with some encouraging news on the inflation front. March core PCE,
the Fed's favored inflation gauge, was unchanged. That brought the year/year
rate back down to 2.1% and closer to the Fed's comfort zone of below 2%, which
we believe will be reached around mid-year to leave policy makers more room to
address any economic concerns with some modest easing.Be that as it may, with
the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq coming into today's action with respective
gains of 6.2%, 5.2%, and 5.6% for the month, a rally built on a batch of
quarterly earnings results that merely checked in better than lowered
expectations offered little incentive for investors to keep forging ahead with
the indices clearly running ahead of the fundamentals. As a reminder, earnings
growth expectations for Q2 and Q3 still languish in the low single digits and,
if the earnings game rules continue to hold true, the bar will be lowered even
further if the economic outlook remains murky. Of the nine sectors losing
ground, Materials (-1.6%) paced the way lower; but that could be expected since
it ranks among this year's best performers.Consumer Discretionary (-1.3%) was
in focus after RadioShack (RSH 29.14 +1.42) said Q1 profits soared five-fold.
However, a softer than expected personal spending number earlier prompted some
consolidation among several other retailers. Homebuilders were another weak
spot after a government report showed that private residential construction
fell by 1% in March.Energy turned in the third worst performance today, falling
1.2% in sympathy with a 1.1% decline in crude for June delivery, followed by a
1.0% drop in Technology. Both sectors ranking among April's top three in terms
of performance also tempted investors to take some money off the table heading
into a seasonally weak period for stocks.Consumer Staples was in focus
following upbeat earnings reports from Wrigley (WWY 58.88 +3.83) and
Alberto-Culver (ACV 24.33 +0.98), as well as an analyst upgrade on
Colgate-Palmolive (CL 67.76 +0.72). Procter & Gamble (PG 64.51 1.53) and
Avon Products (AVP 39.86 +0.35) running up ahead of their Tuesday-morning
reports also provided a floor of support throughout most of the day.
Nonetheless, not even the proclivity of the sector to outperform during periods
of uncertainty or an economic slowdown was enough to keep it in positive
territory.Telecom was the only sector to finish higher Monday, as Verizon
Communications (VZ 38.18 +0.29) matched analysts' forecasts but added 1.7 mln
wireless customers in Q1. Telecom was also the only sector that failed to
partake in the April rally, closing out the month flat versus April gains of
more than 4% on average for the remaining nine economic sectors. BTK -1.6% DJ30
-58.03 DJTA -1.7% DJUA -1.0% DOT -1.0% NASDAQ -32.12 NQ100 -1.2% R2K -1.8% SOX
-1.2% SP400 -1.4% SP500 -11.70 XOI -1.0% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2172/895/2.03 bln
NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2379/910/1.50 bln
Jeremy Grantham: All the World's a Bubble
By Brett ArendsHow high will the Dow go? 15,000? 20,000? How about 36,000? While euphoria sweeps stock markets here and worldwide, there are at least a few voices of dissent. One, unsurprisingly, is legendary value investor Jeremy Grantham -- the man Dick Cheney, plus a lot of other rich people, trusts with his money. Grantham, chairman of Boston firm Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo, has been a voice of caution for years. But he has upped his concerns in his latest letter to shareholders. Grantham says we are now seeing the first worldwide bubble in history covering all asset classes.
Everything is in bubble territory, he says.
Everything.
'The bursting of this bubble will be across all countries and all assets.' -- Jeremy Grantham
"From Indian antiquities to modern Chinese art," he wrote in a letter to clients this week following a six-week world tour, "from land in Panama to Mayfair; from forestry, infrastructure and the junkiest bonds to mundane blue chips; it's bubble time!" "Everyone, everywhere is reinforcing one another," he wrote. "Wherever you travel you will hear it confirmed that 'they don't make any more land,' and that 'with these growth rates and low interest rates, equity markets must keep rising,' and 'private equity will continue to drive the markets.' "
As Grantham points out, a bubble needs two things: excellent fundamentals and easy money.
The mechanism is surprisingly simple," he wrote. "Perfect conditions create very strong 'animal spirits,' reflected statistically in a low risk premium. Widely available cheap credit offers investors the opportunity to act on their optimism." And it becomes self-sustaining. "The more leverage you take, the better you do; the better you do, the more leverage you take. A critical part of a bubble is the reinforcement you get for your very optimistic view from those around you." It's something to think about the next time you hear someone tell you that the stock market will keep rising simply because the world economy is doing so well. That would make sense only if we were paying a constant price for each unit of world GDP, instead of higher and higher prices for one slice of that GDP -- equity.
Grantham concludes that every asset class is expensive today compared with historic averages and compared with the cost of replacing it.
The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.
U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington — First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. “I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,” said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. “The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,” Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. “Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.” Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent — the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. “The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,” BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. “People are being very cautious,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. “The housing crunch is now hurting.” At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers — Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. — reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. “This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,” Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.
There
is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the
market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious
data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a
smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the
0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and
energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first
decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C..
Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks…..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland"
lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer,
previously wrote,” U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B,
Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell
Recall Stems From sony Production Flaw
WASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement
as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped
offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit
declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion,
still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported
Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the
first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth
straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior
considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on
wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud
tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed’s
temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally
warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the
stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart
money. Yahoo previously commented: Friday
was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July
jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic
slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed
meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000
and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting
the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is
on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44%
chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I’ll give you wild: GM says their
quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says
their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will
now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in
ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars;
meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod
(anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it
(past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis …..riiiiight…..
daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its
profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even
suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation
practices. Don’t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below
expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall
street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational
investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less
risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term
treasuries/funds, etc.. However it’s not rational investors that are racking up
commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at
the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value
would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly
leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable
(investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended
quite badly; oil prices now above $65; yes, as in the last crash, they will get
fooled again’ as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland
lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market
has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are
even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is
the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a
rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now
become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative
says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush’s failed war policies would
have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the
hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is
un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on
and playing the “better than expectations” game with the still very substantial
deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the
general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security
system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6
percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness
extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the
(fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight
on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of
companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to
the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why
the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming
government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite
desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the
neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were
the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers
implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that
housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an
investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no
obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will
try to tell you what’s up is down and what’s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a
lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the
government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt
u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they’ve stopped reporting M3)
and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false
government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield
to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and
finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin’ to the contrary;
foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in
california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don’t forget:
the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the
refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while
ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is
substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations,
particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in
this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived
wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of
which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs
attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street
Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is
Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via
'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.
US '.....going
bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway,
Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)
|
The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to
an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's
central bank. |
A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare
timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to
research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St
Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.
Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is
already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the
United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute,
bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors,"
he asked.
According to his central analysis, "the US government
is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who,
in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly
or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.
The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush
administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year
by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product.
This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have
deficits north of 3pc of GDP.
Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says:
"The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the
lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens
exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get
so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be
unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.
"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows
for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be
going broke."
Experts have calculated that the country's long-term
"fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future
receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the
amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total
fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study
by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.
The figure is massive because President George W Bush has
made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which
provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for
the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.
Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five
times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap
one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to
eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an
immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes.
Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and
Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to
immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by
143pc."
The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If
investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some
point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings
of US Treasury bonds.
Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has
experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the
same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries
over the past century."
UPDATE - Two former NYSE
traders found guilty of fraud
Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too
optimistic
Commentary: Newsletters react to
stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow,
MarketWatch 12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the
Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average
recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing
newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This
was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert
worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary
opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June,
although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And
since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit
down days.
Not
good.
Dow
Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks
support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type
action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic
button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.
He simply
remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with
the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But
still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and
down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money
coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market
all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the
worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."
What is Wrong with the Stock Market?
Dr. Khaled
Batarfi
John D.
Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months
before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way
to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice
about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing
the market, I knew there was something wrong.....
U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July
17Tue Jul 18, 2006
WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S.
Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's
latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):
July 17 July 14 (respectively)
Fed acct 4.087 4.935
Tax/loan note acct
10.502 10.155
Cash balance 14.589
15.192
National debt,
subject to limit
8,311.633 8,323.084
The statutory debt limit
is $8.965 trillion.
The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.
End Of The Bubble Bailouts
A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans’ spending binge has been fueled by a
declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American
consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart
below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half
percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a
quarter-century.
The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax
income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a
car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable
income doesn’t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely
linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto,
etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).
Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of
the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed
from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and
subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save
less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide
refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash
from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according
to the Federal Reserve.
But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20%
decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be
way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb
their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending
growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become
global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy
the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.
That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap
between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly
took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be?
And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will
swoon in coming quarters?
One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain
consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar
babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10
trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But
subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer
Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all
people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion,
will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar
babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.
Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the
2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for
boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that
provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to
spend like drunken sailors.
What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support
spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth,
almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of
the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren’t any other big assets left to tap.
Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble
is deflating.
Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is
in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially
conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has
sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2
trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals
are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their
total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that
homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There’s $6.7
trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is
needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.
Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it
up now and take the Scarlett O’Hara, “I’ll worry about that tomorrow” attitude
toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that
number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom
available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.
The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5
trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them.
But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don’t share
their bosses’ zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans
and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are
especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than
$20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of
employees earning $100,000 or more participate.
Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from
defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total,
probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003
to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not
yet vested and can’t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59½ years
old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.
With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I’ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.
WHISPERS
OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading
ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.
(4-27-07) STAGFLATION AS INFLATION ABOVE EXPECTATIONS (HIGHEST IN 16
YEARS), WEAK GROWTH BELOW EXPECTATIONS, Worthless Dollar Down, then there was also the Weimar
Republic, the pre-1929 crash rally, but this is far worse. LEGENDARY VALUE INVESTOR JEREMY GRANTHAM,
CHAIRMAN OF BOSTON FIRM GRANTHAM MAYO VAN OTTERLOO, SAYS WE ARE NOW SEEING THE
FIRST WORLDWIDE BUBBLE IN HISTORY COVERING ALL ASSET CLASSES. First, realize that the criminal
americans lie about everything, especially for money. One expert says that with
near record lows against the Euro, Pound, etc., the translation into worthless
dollars by multi-nationals artificially inflates profits/stock prices, but that
is only part of the story. The Euro Next union brings the fraud to the european
exchange rates, much like the carry trades in a ponzi-like commissionable paper
scheme in Asia, which ultimately reverts to the mean (arbitrage) and as
greenspan says, can’t last and will unravel into what would be tantamount to
hot potato/musical chairs with someone holding the bag/precipitous
decline/wiped out. The expert also correctly points out that there is now a
total disconnect between the market and the u.s. economy which has and will
continue to decline/weaken. The fact is also that although superior to the
u.s., there are substantial structural problems inherent to the European
economies. So absurd was this surge (like nutcase dumbya’s) that the higher oil
prices rallied the transports.....riiiiight! Lunatic frauds on wall street rally on
as bad business news can get, sales of previously owned homes take biggest
tumble in two decades, consumer confidence down sharply , b**l s**t (including fake economic reports-they lie
about everything), higher oil prices, and, ie., ignoring reality regarding,
erosion in consumer sentiment and one-year inflation expectations at the
highest level in 8 months, rising food and energy costs, Systemic Recession The US is sliding into a long-term
economic downturn, ChinaMerica America owned the 20th century, but it
won't own the 21st, Dollar Down, Gold to Soar ...Real Estate Fiz...Recession 2007
...Catch 22 – Lower interest rates in u.s. would decimate already worthless
dollar REALITY COURTESY OF http://www.trendsresearch.com, negative inflation/economic data and continue their
backward looking frenzied rally mode despite higher oil prices, unexpected jump in jobless
claims, mortgage defaults highest in 37 years, retailers warning that April
same-store sales will be weak, and the largest rise in import prices, Citigroup
to cut 17000 jobs and earnings down 11% but stock rallies, national mortgage delinquency rate hit an
all-time high of 2.87% in Q1, sentiment down, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the
current rate of inflation remains too high,
and on previous
stellar employment report from government ...riiiiight!..., (what about the
real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by acturial/accounting),
as previously u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!..., despite previously
experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A
info,
both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing
home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below
expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating
mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by
unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on
previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher
spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP
report (riiiiight! US
GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street’s previous b.s.
story underlying the previous week’s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t
alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with
borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home
prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it’s the weather say
the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as
home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no
problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed
heads, who’ve been printing worthless dollars like they’re going out of style
because they are (so much so
that they’ve stopped reporting M3), remove words
‘additional firming’ is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar
precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and
dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to
government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don’t) though
permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news,
builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting
reality,
obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,
previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4)
inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive
printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's
manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme
with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds continues, blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street
lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure
rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture,
retail sales down (they say it’s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about
consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to
government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight!
But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data
as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend
changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which
had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs
higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering ‘bear market/higher oil
prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally’ (based upon b**l s**t/fake
reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat
currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary
to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of
prosecution for false statements)’ fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally
into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average
up 15, S&P down 1, and NASDAQ up 3, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for
bush, which fell very short but has
provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999
which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge
unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the
inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is
tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes,
etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT
RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP
INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0).....
Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda
minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody’s says at least a
10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe
that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect
a member of a failed administration to say? What’s changed? Nothing, as the
frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed
(ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds.
Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior
downturns since the great depression. Bernanke
responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to
looming fiscal crisis).
Top
investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's
going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what,
paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported
goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING
SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home
sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going
to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil
rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation,
fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and
international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar
denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump;
industrial production/utilization down. Record
home price slump. Retail numbers at
best (I don’t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at
Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 -
$763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month’s improvement, and
rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t
meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC
Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt
will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe
just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings
rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories
highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%,
deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker
than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for
all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you’re a lunatic
fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great
Depression's low. Fake
economic growth report from the administration. Mergers
and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in
Ford’s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock
rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E
ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for
selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil
prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on
leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the
greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall
street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission
dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke
begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has
collapsed... Euro
displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers
(at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures
Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61%
but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading
Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns.
Jawboning by kohn of
print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake
strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4
(they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!)
but fed knows they’ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course
is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge
debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores
Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap
Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar
Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the
new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised
downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america
(100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on
lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf,
and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions
of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest
increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core
ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all
unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland
lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally
along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity.
Core inflation a very
unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of
reality, santa rally. Investment
Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on
worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america
has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty
record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on
precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go.
Superstitious ‘Santa Claus rally’.....riiiiight! High oil price
rally.....riiiiight! Total bulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected
1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially
(do you think they’re booking sales to ‘straw men/companies’.....I do!) and oil
inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!)
the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in
unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending
and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the
housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers
continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a
more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as
many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus
52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the
50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up (OIL
PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR
RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke &
Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil
inventories down and oil prices up, oil
producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and
sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable
goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose
slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the
realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at
sharply lower prices. DOLLAR
PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOW In other
words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland
frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple
deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is
behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of
worthless american paper now being shunned by more
rational market players abroad. MARKETS
ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN
DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e
ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this
indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented
structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget
deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact,
unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment
unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland
world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in
starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland
world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this
massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New
talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing
government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight!
More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected
rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is
their real product, etc.) …..riiiiight!….. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also
known as b**l s**t, along with IPO’s (get the suckers
in at the highs as in late 90’s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive
stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the
worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious
metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought
that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth:
US housing slump deepens,
spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower
guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the
fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing
worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and
there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the
fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped
with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The
frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for
which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The
know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is
predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a
tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom
lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is
tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall
street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross
the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit
indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur
the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality. Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight.
Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only
surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now
saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding
economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought,
overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations.
Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good …..riiiiight…..but savings rate still
negative and walmart
sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck,
they’re wallstreet
lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit
spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless
falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to
come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as
frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking)
based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have
pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as
bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must
restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world
of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative
pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the
accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall
street think they're "tough" when
they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based
reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with
sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite
lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the
mock stock market with money the nation doesn’t have (increasing already huge
deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment
obligations are based) lower than expected…..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the
lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with
yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming….. riiiiight Core inflation rate
which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill
Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and
reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if
any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your
pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade
deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The
alice-in-wonderland
lunatic wall street
frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman
said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will
probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The
Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in
September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News….. riiiiight!..... Consumer
Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were
down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US
Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home
prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election
that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight …..despite printing worthless dollars like they’re going out of style
because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality
of u.s. debt service
at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge
account with ie.,
China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new
trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year
purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the
so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and
must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks
move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest
rates can’t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary,
the fed says booo as
they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the
frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ].
Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of
manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since
April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition
to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest
level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home
sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders
which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world
of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t
from Yahoo (which didn’t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):
AP - The worst economic growth in four years is raising concern that troubles in the U.S. housing market will spread and throw the country into a recession before the year is out.
FDA
Agents Raid Pet Food Plant, Offices AP
Adviser
Ordered to Start Fraud Sentence AP
AT&T
CEO Whitacre Says He Will Retire AP
FDA
Rejects Merck's Vioxx Successor AP
The
major averages finished mixed and relatively flat Friday as investors looked
lethargic closing out another impressive week of sizable gains fueled by this
quarter's busiest week of earnings. Nonetheless, sellers armed with a weak GDP
report, a mixed batch of earnings, and surging oil prices tried to fight the
market's underlying bullish trend only to come up short, again.As has been the
case throughout the Dow's virtually unabated month-long run into record
territory, gains from just a handful of blue chips were just enough to help
the average finish higher for the 19th time in 21 tries.Follow-through
momentum in 3M Co (MMM 81.72 +1.27), and Honeywell (HON 54.87 +1.18) soaring
2.2% to a multi-year high, accounted for the bulk of the price-weighted index's
advance; but fellow component Microsoft (MSFT 30.08 +0.98) was the day's
headliner and Dow's best performer. Last night, the tech bellwether posted a
65% jump in Q3 profits that were a record amid strong Vista sales and provided
reassuring guidance. A quiet 1.7% surge in shares of Cisco Systems (CSCO 26.99
+0.44), a suggested holding in the Briefing.com
Active Portfolio, provided additional sector support. Dell (DELL 25.21 +0.30)
was another tech winner, jumping 1.2% after CEO Michael Dell sent an email
to the company's employees outlining steps to "re-ignite"
growth. Minimizing the tech sector's performance, though, was weakness across
the board from chip stocks after Broadcom (BRCM 33.40 -1.46) said it has limited
visibility into near-term results. That news ran counter to what larger
competitor Texas Instruments (TXN 34.79 -0.37) said earlier in the week. The
PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index surged 3.1% on Tuesday after TXN cited improved
demand predicated on the end to last year's inventory correction.The biggest
surprise of the day was the economically-sensitive Industrial sector's ability
to shrug off a weaker than expected advance read of 1.3% on Q1 GDP. While the
data served as a reminder that the decent earnings trends for Q1 may not
continue into Q2 and Q3, investors already anticipating signs of a slowdown and
perhaps another round of supportive M&A news come Monday found just enough
momentum to look past the dated nature of the GDP data.The Industrial sector
got its biggest lift from a 2.7% surge in Dow component General Electric (GE
36.79 +0.95), which moved after a Citigroup analyst said GE should spin
off its NBC and GE Money units. Environmental Services was the day's best
performing S&P industry group (+7.6%) after Waste Management (WMI 38.21
+2.86) followed up a 19% rise in Q1 profits by raising its full-year forecasts.
Construction & Farming was another source of sector support, getting a huge
lift from Cummins Inc. (CMI 96.15 +10.16). The stock soared 12% to an all-time
high after it handily beat expectations and boosted its FY07 profit outlook.
DJ30 +15.44 NASDAQ +2.75 SP500 -0.18 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1836/1166/2.11 bln NYSE
Dec/Adv/Vol 1854/1392/1.40 bln
Jeremy Grantham: All the World's a Bubble
By Brett ArendsHow high will the Dow go? 15,000? 20,000? How about 36,000? While euphoria sweeps stock markets here and worldwide, there are at least a few voices of dissent. One, unsurprisingly, is legendary value investor Jeremy Grantham -- the man Dick Cheney, plus a lot of other rich people, trusts with his money. Grantham, chairman of Boston firm Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo, has been a voice of caution for years. But he has upped his concerns in his latest letter to shareholders. Grantham says we are now seeing the first worldwide bubble in history covering all asset classes.
Everything is in bubble territory, he says.
Everything.
'The bursting of this bubble will be across all countries and all assets.' -- Jeremy Grantham
"From Indian antiquities to modern Chinese art," he wrote in a letter to clients this week following a six-week world tour, "from land in Panama to Mayfair; from forestry, infrastructure and the junkiest bonds to mundane blue chips; it's bubble time!" "Everyone, everywhere is reinforcing one another," he wrote. "Wherever you travel you will hear it confirmed that 'they don't make any more land,' and that 'with these growth rates and low interest rates, equity markets must keep rising,' and 'private equity will continue to drive the markets.' "
As Grantham points out, a bubble needs two things: excellent fundamentals and easy money.
The mechanism is surprisingly simple," he wrote. "Perfect conditions create very strong 'animal spirits,' reflected statistically in a low risk premium. Widely available cheap credit offers investors the opportunity to act on their optimism." And it becomes self-sustaining. "The more leverage you take, the better you do; the better you do, the more leverage you take. A critical part of a bubble is the reinforcement you get for your very optimistic view from those around you." It's something to think about the next time you hear someone tell you that the stock market will keep rising simply because the world economy is doing so well. That would make sense only if we were paying a constant price for each unit of world GDP, instead of higher and higher prices for one slice of that GDP -- equity.
Grantham concludes that every asset class is expensive today compared with historic averages and compared with the cost of replacing it.
The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.
U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington — First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. “I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,” said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. “The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,” Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. “Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.” Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent — the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. “The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,” BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. “People are being very cautious,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. “The housing crunch is now hurting.” At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers — Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. — reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. “This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,” Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.
There
is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the
market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious
data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a
smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the
0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and
energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first
decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C..
Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks…..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland"
lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer,
previously wrote,” U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B,
Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell
Recall Stems From sony Production Flaw
WASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement
as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped
offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit
declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion,
still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported
Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the
first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth
straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior
considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on
wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud
tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed’s
temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally
warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the
stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart
money. Yahoo previously commented: Friday
was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July
jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic
slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed
meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000
and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting
the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is
on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44%
chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I’ll give you wild: GM says their
quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says
their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will
now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in
ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars;
meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod
(anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it
(past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis …..riiiiight…..
daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its
profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even
suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation
practices. Don’t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below
expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall
street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational
investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less
risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term
treasuries/funds, etc.. However it’s not rational investors that are racking up
commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at
the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value
would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly
leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable
(investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended
quite badly; oil prices now above $66; yes, as in the last crash, they will get
fooled again’ as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland
lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market
has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are
even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is
the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a
rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now
become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative
says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush’s failed war policies would
have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the
hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is
un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on
and playing the “better than expectations” game with the still very substantial
deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the
general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security
system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6
percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness
extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the
(fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight
on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of
companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to
the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why
the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming
government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite
desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the
neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were
the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers
implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that
housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an
investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no
obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will
try to tell you what’s up is down and what’s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a
lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the
government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt
u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they’ve stopped reporting M3)
and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false
government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield
to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and
finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin’ to the contrary;
foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in
california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don’t forget:
the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the
refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while
ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is
substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations,
particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in
this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived
wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of
which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs
attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street
Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is
Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via
'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.
US '.....going
bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway,
Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)
|
The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to
an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's
central bank. |
A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare
timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to
research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St
Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.
Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is
already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the
United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute,
bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors,"
he asked.
According to his central analysis, "the US government
is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who,
in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly
or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.
The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush
administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year
by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product.
This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have
deficits north of 3pc of GDP.
Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says:
"The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the
lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens
exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get
so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be
unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.
"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows
for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be
going broke."
Experts have calculated that the country's long-term
"fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future
receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the
amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total
fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study
by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.
The figure is massive because President George W Bush has
made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which
provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for
the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.
Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five
times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap
one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to
eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an
immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes.
Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and
Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to
immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by
143pc."
The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If
investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some
point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings
of US Treasury bonds.
Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has
experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the
same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries
over the past century."
UPDATE - Two former NYSE
traders found guilty of fraud
Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too
optimistic
Commentary: Newsletters react to
stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow,
MarketWatch 12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the
Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average
recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing
newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This
was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert
worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary
opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June,
although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And
since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit
down days.
Not
good.
Dow
Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks
support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type
action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic
button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.
He simply
remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with
the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But
still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and
down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money
coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market
all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the
worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."
What is Wrong with the Stock Market?
Dr. Khaled
Batarfi
John D.
Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months
before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way
to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice
about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing
the market, I knew there was something wrong.....
U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July
17Tue Jul 18, 2006
WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S.
Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's
latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):
July 17 July 14 (respectively)
Fed acct 4.087 4.935
Tax/loan note acct
10.502 10.155
Cash balance 14.589
15.192
National debt,
subject to limit
8,311.633 8,323.084
The statutory debt limit
is $8.965 trillion.
The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.
End Of The Bubble Bailouts
A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans’ spending binge has been fueled by a
declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American
consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart
below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half
percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a
quarter-century.
The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax
income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a
car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable
income doesn’t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely
linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto,
etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).
Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of
the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed
from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and
subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save
less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide
refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash
from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according
to the Federal Reserve.
But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20%
decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be
way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb
their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending
growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become
global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy
the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.
That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap
between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly
took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be?
And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will
swoon in coming quarters?
One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain
consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar
babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10
trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But
subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer
Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all
people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion,
will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar
babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.
Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the
2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for
boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that
provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to
spend like drunken sailors.
What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support
spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth,
almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of
the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren’t any other big assets left to tap.
Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble
is deflating.
Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is
in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially
conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has
sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2
trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals
are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their
total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that
homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There’s $6.7
trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is
needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.
Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it
up now and take the Scarlett O’Hara, “I’ll worry about that tomorrow” attitude
toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that
number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom
available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.
The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5
trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them.
But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don’t share
their bosses’ zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans
and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are
especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than
$20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of
employees earning $100,000 or more participate.
Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from
defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total,
probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003
to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not
yet vested and can’t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59½ years
old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.
With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I’ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.
WHISPERS
OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading
ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.
(4-26-07) There was the Weimar Republic, the pre-1929 crash rally, but
this is far worse. First, realize that the criminal americans lie about
everything, especially for money. One expert says that with near record lows
against the Euro, Pound, etc., the translation into worthless dollars by
multi-nationals artificially inflates profits/stock prices, but that is only
part of the story. The Euro Next union brings the fraud to the european
exchange rates, much like the carry trades in a ponzi-like commissionable paper
scheme in Asia, which ultimately reverts to the mean (arbitrage) and as
greenspan says, can’t last and will unravel into what would be tantamount to
hot potato/musical chairs with someone holding the bag/precipitous
decline/wiped out. The expert also correctly points out that there is now a
total disconnect between the market and the u.s. economy which has and will
continue to decline/weaken. The fact is also that although superior to the
u.s., there are substantial structural problems inherent to the European
economies. So absurd was this surge (like nutcase dumbya’s) that the higher oil
prices rallied the transports.....riiiiight! Lunatic frauds on wall street rally on
as bad business news can get, sales of previously owned homes take biggest
tumble in two decades, consumer confidence down sharply , b**l s**t (including fake economic reports-they lie
about everything), higher oil prices, and, ie., ignoring reality regarding,
erosion in consumer sentiment and one-year inflation expectations at the
highest level in 8 months, rising food and energy costs, Systemic Recession The US is sliding into a long-term
economic downturn, ChinaMerica America owned the 20th century, but it
won't own the 21st, Dollar Down, Gold to Soar ...Real Estate Fiz...Recession 2007
...Catch 22 – Lower interest rates in u.s. would decimate already worthless
dollar REALITY COURTESY OF http://www.trendsresearch.com, negative inflation/economic data and continue their
backward looking frenzied rally mode despite higher oil prices, unexpected jump in jobless
claims, mortgage defaults highest in 37 years, retailers warning that April
same-store sales will be weak, and the largest rise in import prices, Citigroup
to cut 17000 jobs and earnings down 11% but stock rallies, national mortgage delinquency rate hit an
all-time high of 2.87% in Q1, sentiment down, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the
current rate of inflation remains too high,
and on previous
stellar employment report from government ...riiiiight!..., (what about the
real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by
acturial/accounting), as previously u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!...,
despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A
info,
both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing
home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below
expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating
mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by
unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous
stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on
lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report
(riiiiight! US
GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street’s previous b.s.
story underlying the previous week’s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t
alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with
borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home
prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it’s the weather say
the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as
home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no
problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed
heads, who’ve been printing worthless dollars like they’re going out of style
because they are (so much so
that they’ve stopped reporting M3), remove words
‘additional firming’ is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar
precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and
dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to
government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don’t) though
permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news,
builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting
reality,
obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,
previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4)
inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive
printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's
manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme
with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds continues, blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street
lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record
foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal
picture, retail sales down (they say it’s the weather.....riiiiight.....how
about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as
opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk
it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above,
revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade
deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil
inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below
expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no
problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering ‘bear market/higher oil
prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally’ (based upon b**l s**t/fake
reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat
currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary
to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of
prosecution for false statements)’ fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally
into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average
up 15, S&P down 1, and NASDAQ up 6, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for
bush, which fell very short but has
provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999
which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge
unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the
inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is
tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes,
etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT
RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP
INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0).....
Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda
minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody’s says at least a
10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe
that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect
a member of a failed administration to say? What’s changed? Nothing, as the
frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed
(ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds.
Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior
downturns since the great depression. Bernanke
responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to
looming fiscal crisis).
Top
investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's
going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what,
paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported
goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING
SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home
sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going
to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil
rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation,
fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and
international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar
denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump;
industrial production/utilization down. Record
home price slump. Retail numbers at
best (I don’t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at
Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 -
$763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month’s improvement, and
rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t
meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC
Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt
will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe
just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings
rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories
highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%,
deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker
than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for
all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you’re a lunatic
fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great
Depression's low. Fake
economic growth report from the administration. Mergers
and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in
Ford’s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock
rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E
ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for
selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil
prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on
leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the
greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall
street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission
dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke
begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has
collapsed... Euro
displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers
(at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures
Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61%
but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading
Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns.
Jawboning by kohn of
print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake
strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4
(they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!)
but fed knows they’ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course
is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge
debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores
Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap
Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar
Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the
new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised
downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america
(100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on
lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf,
and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions
of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest
increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core
ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all
unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland
lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally
along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity.
Core inflation a very
unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of
reality, santa rally. Investment
Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on
worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america
has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty
record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on
precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go.
Superstitious ‘Santa Claus rally’.....riiiiight! High oil price
rally.....riiiiight! Total bulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected
1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially
(do you think they’re booking sales to ‘straw men/companies’.....I do!) and oil
inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!)
the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in
unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending
and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the
housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers
continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a
more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as
many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus
52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the
50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up (OIL
PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR
RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke &
Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil
inventories down and oil prices up, oil
producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and
sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable
goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose
slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the
realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at
sharply lower prices. DOLLAR
PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOW In other
words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland
frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple
deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is
behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of
worthless american paper now being shunned by more
rational market players abroad. MARKETS
ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN
DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e
ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this
indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented
structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget
deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact,
unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment
unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland
world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in
starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland
world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this
massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New
talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing
government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight!
More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected
rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is
their real product, etc.) …..riiiiight!….. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also
known as b**l s**t, along with IPO’s (get the suckers
in at the highs as in late 90’s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive
stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the
worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious
metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought
that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth:
US housing slump deepens,
spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower
guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the
fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing
worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and
there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the
fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped
with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The
frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for
which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The
know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is
predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a
tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom
lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is
tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall
street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross
the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit
indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur
the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality. Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight.
Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only
surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now
saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding
economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought,
overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations.
Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good …..riiiiight…..but savings rate still
negative and walmart
sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck,
they’re wallstreet
lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit
spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless
falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to
come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as
frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking)
based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have
pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as
bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must
restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world
of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative
pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the
accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall
street think they're "tough" when
they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based
reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with
sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite
lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the
mock stock market with money the nation doesn’t have (increasing already huge
deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment
obligations are based) lower than expected…..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the
lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with
yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming….. riiiiight Core inflation rate
which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill
Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and
reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if
any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your
pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade
deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The
alice-in-wonderland
lunatic wall street
frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman
said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will
probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The
Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in
September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News….. riiiiight!..... Consumer
Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were
down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US
Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home
prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election
that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight …..despite printing worthless dollars like they’re going out of style
because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality
of u.s. debt service
at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge
account with ie.,
China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new
trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year
purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the
so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and
must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks
move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest
rates can’t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary,
the fed says booo as
they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the
frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ].
Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of
manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since
April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition
to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest
level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home
sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders
which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world
of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t
from Yahoo (which didn’t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):
AP - Windows
Vista buoyed Microsoft Corp.'s quarterly results, easing fears that the new
operating system is too pricey, requires too many hardware upgrades and doesn't
work with other companies' applications.
Exxon
Mobil 1Q Profit Rises 10 Percent AP
Oil
Prices Climb Above $65 a Barrel AP
No
Charges Against Frist in Stock Sale AP
Ford
1Q Loss Narrows As Revenue Rises AP
With
the Dow soaring more than 800 points over the last four weeks, logging gains in
18 of the last 20 sessions, and finally eclipsing the psychologically
significant 13,000 mark yesterday, it wasn't surprising to see blue chips take
a bit of a breather Thursday. Nonetheless, a sizable gain from one of the
price-weighted index's most expensive names again helped the Dow close at a new
all-time high. Before the bell, 3M Co. (MMM 80.52 +3.55) handily topped Wall
Street forecasts with a 52% rise in Q1 profits and reaffirmed its FY07 outlook,
becoming the Dow's best performer. In fact, if it weren't for a 4.6% rally in
3M shares, the Dow would have closed in negative territory. Fellow Dow
component General Motors (GM 32.40 1.33) was the index's next best performer,
surging 4.3% after rival Ford Motor (F 8.21 +0.33) posted a narrower than
expected Q1 loss that gave investors hope that GM will also surprise the
street. Despite a late-day downturn in oil prices, Exxon Mobil (XOM 80.56
+0.64) turning in a commendable performance was also noteworthy. The world's
largest publicly-traded component closed at a new all-time high after
shareholders applauded better than expected earnings even though the average
price of U.S. crude was 8% lower in Q1 versus last year.Of the four sectors
finishing with gains, Technology was really the only bright spot following a
blowout report from Apple (AAPL 98.84 +3.49). Last night, Apple posted an 88%
jump in Q2 earnings on robust iPod sales and surged as much as 7.5% intraday
before finishing at an all-time high. Turning in an even better performance on
the tech-heavy Nasdaq, though, was Amazon.com (AMZN 62.78 +5.97), which tacked
a 10.5% gain onto yesterday's giant 27% surge.
The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.
U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington — First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. “I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,” said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. “The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,” Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. “Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.” Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent — the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. “The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,” BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. “People are being very cautious,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. “The housing crunch is now hurting.” At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers — Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. — reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. “This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,” Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.
There
is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the
market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious
data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a
smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the
0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and
energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first
decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C..
Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks…..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland"
lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer,
previously wrote,” U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B,
Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell
Recall Stems From sony Production Flaw
WASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement
as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped
offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit
declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion,
still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported
Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the
first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth
straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior
considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on
wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud
tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed’s
temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally
warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the
stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart
money. Yahoo previously commented: Friday
was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July
jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic
slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed
meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000
and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting
the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is
on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44%
chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I’ll give you wild: GM says their
quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says
their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will
now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in
ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars;
meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod
(anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it
(past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis …..riiiiight…..
daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its
profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even
suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation
practices. Don’t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below
expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall
street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational
investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less
risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term
treasuries/funds, etc.. However it’s not rational investors that are racking up
commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at
the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value
would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly
leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable
(investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended
quite badly; oil prices now above $65; yes, as in the last crash, they will get
fooled again’ as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland
lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market
has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are
even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is
the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a
rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now
become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative
says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush’s failed war policies would
have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the
hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is
un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on
and playing the “better than expectations” game with the still very substantial
deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the
general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security
system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6
percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness
extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the
(fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight
on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of
companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to
the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why
the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming
government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite
desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the
neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were
the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers
implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that
housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an
investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no
obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will
try to tell you what’s up is down and what’s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a
lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the
government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt
u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they’ve stopped reporting M3)
and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false
government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield
to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and
finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin’ to the contrary;
foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in
california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don’t forget:
the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the
refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while
ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is
substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations,
particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in
this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived
wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of
which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs
attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street
Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is
Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via
'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.
US '.....going
bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway,
Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)
|
The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to
an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's
central bank. |
A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare
timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to
research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St
Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.
Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is
already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the
United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute,
bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors,"
he asked.
According to his central analysis, "the US government
is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who,
in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly
or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.
The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush
administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year
by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product.
This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have
deficits north of 3pc of GDP.
Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says:
"The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the
lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens
exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get
so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be
unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.
"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows
for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be
going broke."
Experts have calculated that the country's long-term
"fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future
receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the
amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total
fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study
by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.
The figure is massive because President George W Bush has
made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which
provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for
the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.
Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five
times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap
one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to
eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an
immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes.
Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and
Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to
immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by
143pc."
The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If
investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some
point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings
of US Treasury bonds.
Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has
experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the
same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries
over the past century."
UPDATE - Two former NYSE
traders found guilty of fraud
Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too
optimistic
Commentary: Newsletters react to
stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow,
MarketWatch 12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the
Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average
recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing
newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This
was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert
worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary
opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June,
although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And
since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit
down days.
Not
good.
Dow
Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks
support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type
action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic
button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.
He simply
remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with
the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But
still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and
down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money
coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market
all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the
worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."
What is Wrong with the Stock Market?
Dr. Khaled
Batarfi
John D.
Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months
before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way
to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice
about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing
the market, I knew there was something wrong.....
U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July
17Tue Jul 18, 2006
WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S.
Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's
latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):
July 17 July 14 (respectively)
Fed acct 4.087 4.935
Tax/loan note acct
10.502 10.155
Cash balance 14.589
15.192
National debt,
subject to limit
8,311.633 8,323.084
The statutory debt limit
is $8.965 trillion.
The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.
End Of The Bubble Bailouts
A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans’ spending binge has been fueled by a
declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American
consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart
below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half
percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a
quarter-century.
The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax
income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a
car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable
income doesn’t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely
linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto,
etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).
Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of
the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed
from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and
subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save
less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide
refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash
from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according
to the Federal Reserve.
But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20%
decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be
way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb
their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending
growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become
global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy
the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.
That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap
between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly
took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be?
And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will
swoon in coming quarters?
One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain
consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar
babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10
trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But
subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer
Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all
people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion,
will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar
babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.
Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the
2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for
boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that
provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to
spend like drunken sailors.
What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support
spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth,
almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of
the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren’t any other big assets left to tap.
Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble
is deflating.
Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is
in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially
conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has
sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2
trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals
are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their
total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that
homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There’s $6.7
trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is
needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.
Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it
up now and take the Scarlett O’Hara, “I’ll worry about that tomorrow” attitude
toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that
number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom
available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.
The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5
trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them.
But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don’t share
their bosses’ zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans
and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are
especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than
$20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of
employees earning $100,000 or more participate.
Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from
defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total,
probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003
to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not
yet vested and can’t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59½ years
old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.
With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I’ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.
WHISPERS
OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading
ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.
(4-25-07) There was the Weimar Republic, the pre-1929 crash rally, but
this is far worse. First, realize that the criminal americans lie about
everything, especially for money. One expert says that with near record lows
against the Euro, Pound, etc., the translation into worthless dollars by
multi-nationals artificially inflates profits/stock prices, but that is only
part of the story. The Euro Next union brings the fraud to the european
exchange rates, much like the carry trades in a ponzi-like commissionable paper
scheme in Asia, which ultimately reverts to the mean (arbitrage) and as
greenspan says, can’t last and will unravel into what would be tantamount to
hot potato/musical chairs with someone holding the bag/precipitous
decline/wiped out. The expert also correctly points out that there is now a
total disconnect between the market and the u.s. economy which has and will
continue to decline/weaken. The fact is also that although superior to the
u.s., there are substantial structural problems inherent to the European
economies. So absurd was this surge (like nutcase dumbya’s) that the higher oil
prices rallied the transports.....riiiiight! Lunatic frauds on wall street rally on
as bad business news can get, sales of previously owned homes take biggest
tumble in two decades, consumer confidence down sharply , b**l s**t (including fake economic reports-they lie
about everything), higher oil prices, and, ie., ignoring reality regarding,
erosion in consumer sentiment and one-year inflation expectations at the
highest level in 8 months, rising food and energy costs, Systemic Recession The US is sliding into a long-term
economic downturn, ChinaMerica America owned the 20th century, but it
won't own the 21st, Dollar Down, Gold to Soar ...Real Estate Fiz...Recession 2007
...Catch 22 – Lower interest rates in u.s. would decimate already worthless
dollar REALITY COURTESY OF http://www.trendsresearch.com, negative inflation/economic data and continue their
backward looking frenzied rally mode despite higher oil prices, unexpected jump in jobless
claims, mortgage defaults highest in 37 years, retailers warning that April
same-store sales will be weak, and the largest rise in import prices, Citigroup
to cut 17000 jobs and earnings down 11% but stock rallies, national mortgage delinquency rate hit an
all-time high of 2.87% in Q1, sentiment down, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the
current rate of inflation remains too high,
and on previous
stellar employment report from government ...riiiiight!..., (what about the
real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by
acturial/accounting), as previously u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!...,
despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A
info,
both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing
home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below
expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating
mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by
unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous
stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on
lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report
(riiiiight! US
GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street’s previous b.s.
story underlying the previous week’s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t
alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with
borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home
prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it’s the weather say
the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as
home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no
problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed
heads, who’ve been printing worthless dollars like they’re going out of style
because they are (so much so
that they’ve stopped reporting M3), remove words
‘additional firming’ is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar
precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and
dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to
government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don’t) though
permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news,
builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting
reality,
obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue,
previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4)
inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive
printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's
manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme
with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds continues, blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street
lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record
foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal
picture, retail sales down (they say it’s the weather.....riiiiight.....how
about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as
opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk
it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above,
revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade
deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil
inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below
expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no
problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering ‘bear market/higher oil
prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally’ (based upon b**l s**t/fake
reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat
currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary
to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of
prosecution for false statements)’ fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally
into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average
up 135.95, S&P up 15.01, and NASDAQ up 23.35, all very commissionable
on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for
bush, which fell very short but has
provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999
which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge
unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the
inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is
tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes,
etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT
RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP
INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0).....
Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda
minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody’s says at least a
10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe
that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect
a member of a failed administration to say? What’s changed? Nothing, as the
frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed
(ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds.
Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior
downturns since the great depression. Bernanke
responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to
looming fiscal crisis).
Top
investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's
going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what,
paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported
goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING
SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home
sales down 17%.....Durables down over seven percent. Are they going
to fudge/falsify the GDP revision? Oil
rise on US energy inventory data. Stagflation,
fake reports understate fundamental weakness, higher oil prices rally. Housing starts down sharply, as investors, domestic and
international, dramatically slow purchase of fiat currency/worthless us/dollar
denominated stocks and bonds. Record real estate price slump;
industrial production/utilization down. Record
home price slump. Retail numbers at
best (I don’t believe them for a second) just flat; massive layoffs at
Chrysler; more government borrowing to paint false facade. Trade deficit up sharply and new record for all of 2006 -
$763 billion (the market last rallied with previous month’s improvement, and
rallies with worsening, everything else was typical wall street b**l s**t
meaning and based on nothing, ie., m&a, upgrade, etc.). Default rates up again. HSBC
Holdings, the world's third largest bank, warned that provisions for bad debt
will be some 20% higher than previously thought. SEC launch of insider trading (pervasive on fraudulent wall street) probe
just tip of the iceberg. Negative savings
rate (highest since great depression), factory output down, home inventories
highest since last crash, defaults up, gm and ford sales down 17% and 19%,
deficits trade/budget, dollar down and going lower, january jobs data weaker
than the consensus estimate and below the average gain of 153,000 per month for
all of 2006 and viewed as bearish......but no problemo if you’re a lunatic
fraud on wall street. Personal Savings at Lowest Point Since 1933-- Great
Depression's low. Fake
economic growth report from the administration. Mergers
and acquisitions continue to cloud the picture facilitating the fraud. Having beat fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall street expectations with Record Loss of $12.7 Billion, the rally in
Ford’s stock continues..... riiiiight! Fake numbers also a plus. Ford Posts Record Loss of $12.7 Billion.....stock
rallies on the news.....riiiiight! P/E
ratios far beyond the mean particularly for this stage in the cycle for
selected securities (ie., 80+, etc.). Higher oil
prices and fake indicators report spark rally.....riiiiight! Report on
leading economic indicators is delayed (very unusual unless you understand the
greater complexity in fudging same.....not to worry, fans of frauds on wall
street.....the lunatic frauds will also get their churn-and-earn commission
dollars on the way down). Fed Chairman Bernanke
begins to euphemistically discuss reality on capital hill. PAPER: Condo market in DC, Vegas, Miami and Boston has
collapsed... Euro
displaces dollar in bond markets... 13 charged in Wall Street insider trading ring CNN International Higher oil prices and fake numbers spurs rally. More fake job numbers
(at best, hamburger helpers, etc.). Foreclosures
Rip Neighborhoods in Denver. Yahoo profit falls 61%
but rallies 6% on b**l s**t alone. Insider-Trading
Ring Bust in US Fuels Hedge-Fund Concerns.
Jawboning by kohn of
print-those-worthless-dollars fed raises market.....riiiiight! The ism services index fell, but that was down from an unexpectedly and fake
strong read a month earlier, manufacturing index up slightly to 51.4
(they must be counting hamburgers as manufactured goods in u.s......riiiiight!)
but fed knows they’ve been printing worthless dollars like mad which of course
is hyperinflationary and will come home to roost, along with huge
debt/deficits, trade and budget, Stores
Report Disappointing Dec. Sales, Gap
Woes Deepen in Bleak Holiday Season. Ford and GM auto sales down 13%. More reports in defiance of reality, oil prices up, Dollar
Slides..., every intelligent analyst/economist knows that the
new home sales number from the government is a total lie that will be revised
downward later, that the options scandals are pervasive in fraudulent america
(100 investigations just tip of the iceberg), oil stocks continue to rally on
lower oil prices, as previously on pipeline explosion in Nigeria, spill in Gulf,
and sanctions for Iran, and sharp FALL in oil prices.....riiiiight!.....predictions
of disappointing retail sales even with fire-sale discounted prices,..... Highest
increase (2%) in 30 years for the wholesale price index, and as well, the core
ppi (1.3%), GDP growth less than expected at 2%, dollar sharply lower, oil prices up, building permits down, all
unexpectedly bad but great news in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland
lunatic world of wall street. New Record Quarterly Trade Deficit initially spurred lunatic market rally
along with obfuscating but very commissionable merger activity.
Core inflation a very
unexpected unchanged .....riiiiight!.....spurs superstitious, devoid of
reality, santa rally. Investment
Banks Post Record 2006 Profit .....daaaaah! Churning and earning on
worthless paper, where is that commission dollar coming from even as america
has ceded solvency/leadership in every economic measure. Even at the lofty
record numbers the indices are worth roughly half their value based on
precipitous fall of the dollar in only 5 years with further downside to go.
Superstitious ‘Santa Claus rally’.....riiiiight! High oil price
rally.....riiiiight! Total bulls**t ! Retail sales up a very unexpected
1%, riiiiight, at the same time inventories of such goods rising substantially
(do you think they’re booking sales to ‘straw men/companies’.....I do!) and oil
inventories down. Fake employment numbers (from the government.....riiiiight!)
the impetus for previous b.s. rally despite falling sentiment and uptick in
unemployment. The ism services index (financed by unsustainable deficit/debt spending
and pushing/commissioning worthless paper) and jawboning/bulls**t from the
housing industry (the end is near.....riiiiight!), obfuscating mergers
continued to cloud the picture, closely-watched core-PCE deflator had risen a
more than expected 0.2%, second sub-50 reading on manufacturing activity in as
many sessions-the November ISM index unexpectedly fell to 49.5 (consensus
52.0), Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the
50 level, indicating contraction, crude prices up (OIL
PRICES RISE ABOVE $63 A BARREL...), DOLLAR
RESUMES SLIDE, Fed Chairman Bernanke &
Co. cheerleading/jawboning/bulls**t, 3.2% decline in new home sales, oil
inventories down and oil prices up, oil
producers shun the dollar, Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and
sterling..., all very bad news anywhere but in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland world of wall street. Durable
goods orders fell sharply, sentiment down, but supposedly used home sales rose
slightly (riiiiight.....who says; the
realtors/government who have been talking up this bubble market?) albeit at
sharply lower prices. DOLLAR
PLUNGES TO NEAR 15-YEAR LOW In other
words, no good news to justify the ridiculous up move by the alice-in-wonderland
frauds of wall street. Worthless dollar, triple
deficits, stock/options scandals/corruption, as some speculate that fed is
behind purchases/manipulation (through proxy) of
worthless american paper now being shunned by more
rational market players abroad. MARKETS
ROCKED BY LONG OVERDUE BUT STILL MODEST RELATIVE TO REALITY SHARP SLIDE IN
DOLLAR...There has never been a time since 1929 when stock prices and p/e
ratios were so irrationally high for this point in a bull cycle in this
indisputable secular bear market, particularly with the existing unprecedented
structural economic problems, ie., trade and budget
deficits, worthless dollar, scandals, fraud, corruption , etc.. In fact,
unemployment unexpectedly rose substantially and consumer sentiment
unexpectedly but similarly realistically fell, both very negative exept in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland
world of wall street. Indeed, the housing bubble bursting with ie., unexpected 14% decline in
starts/permits, etc., led to rally in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland
world of wall street. Obfuscating mergers help preclude detection of this
massive and pervasive fraud which defies analysis owing to these mergers. New
talking pointing: dell numbers exceed expectations depending upon ongoing
government scrutiny of their accounting practices.....riiiiight!
More contrived manipulated markets and data well as that previous unexpected
rise in that global hub of manufacturing activity, New York (worthless paper is
their real product, etc.) …..riiiiight!….. underpins fraudulent up move. Reassuring Fed speak, also
known as b**l s**t, along with IPO’s (get the suckers
in at the highs as in late 90’s market bubble), and shrugging off pervasive
stock/options fraud as at, ie., KB Homes, etc., leave stocks ridiculously higher. Nations leaving the
worthless dollar in droves for currencies backed by value and for precious
metals. Based on the self-interested statement of typical fraud american and fed rep, we hear once again the wishful thought
that housing has bottomed.....right! [Reality/Truth:
US housing slump deepens,
spreads]. Home depot rallies despite lower than expected results and lower
guidance for the year.....right! Who is stupid enough to believe anything the
fraudulent criminal americans say. They are printing
worthless dollars like mad. Consumer sentiment actually previously fell and
there was nothing but wall street lunacy to prop the
fraudulent market. The republicans who lockstepped
with war criminal dumbya bush deserved to lose. The
frauds on wall street now looking for the new corporate welfare program for
which to sell the sizzle ie., stem cells, etc.. The
know-nothing pundits are now saying the up move without any rational basis is
predicated upon the the falsity that gridlock in washington is welcomed and good because no regulation of, ie., fraud on wall street, etc., can be passed. How about a
tax on stock trades to come directly from the traders' (traitors/frauds) bottom
lines and provide a disincentive for the churn-and-earn fraud which is
tantamount to a wasteful tax on the economy. Even token Christian paulison from jew fraud wall
street couldn't stem the tide against the blatent zionist/neocon/bush co failure accross
the board as the wall street frauds show record profits financed, albeit
indirectly, by huge deficits, both trade and budget. Obfuscating mergers blur
the picture to provide cover for up move talking points in defiance of reality. Stagflation and full employment revisions pre-election.....riiiiight.
Productivity comes in at a less than expected 0 (inflationary). The only
surprise should have been that the number wasn't negative. The pundits are now
saying that the market/wall street fraud is in a state of denial regarding
economic fundamentals and that the market is substantially overbought,
overvalued, overfrauded, over, etc., the manufacturing index coming in lower than expectations.
Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.....daaaaah. Pre-election core inflation rate report good …..riiiiight…..but savings rate still
negative and walmart
sales/profits/outlook substantially below expectations but what the heck,
they’re wallstreet
lunatics/frauds and reality is no problem. Despite pre-election deficit
spending, GNP comes in a less than expected paltry 1.6% increase with worthless
falling dollar the catch-22 precluding reality avoidance and the worst yet to
come. More nations leaving the worthless dollar as reserve currency even as
frauds on wall street reach new highs (What are they smoking? Coking? or like the dollar just cracking)
based on corporate welfare flows with money the nation doesn't have
pre-election (record deficits). Housing prices continue their sharp decline as
bubble deflates. GM only lost 115 million. Ford lost 5.8 billion and must
restate earnings back to year 2000 is a bullish sign in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland lunatic world
of wall street. Typical pre-fed meeting rally to provide a cushion for any negative
pronouncements which reality would require but are seldom forthcoming by the
accommodative frauds who have similarly embraced unreality. Indeed, the gutless wimps of wall
street think they're "tough" when
they fraudulently take the market higher despite a clearly contrary fact based
reality. Caterpillar relates the pervasive reality and the frauds on wallstreet intimidate same with
sell off, ignoring pervasive options scandal/fraud and rallies Merck despite
lower than expectation results.....riiiiight! Election year corporate welfare to prime the pump and the
mock stock market with money the nation doesn’t have (increasing already huge
deficits). CPI figures (upon which government inflation adjusted payment
obligations are based) lower than expected…..riiiiight! Intel earnings/revenues down sharply but according to the
lunatic frauds on wall street, beat expectations and stock rallies along with
yahoo which as in the pre-dot com bust days says better days are a coming….. riiiiight Core inflation rate
which is closely watched by the Fed exceeds all expectations. Fraud Merrill
Lynch has really been pushing and commissioning that worthless paper and
reports record earnings, despite having produced nothing and for very little if
any value added (that ill-gotten money has to come from somewhere-your
pockets?). The big economic report awaiting scrutiny was the monthly trade
deficit which was expected to narrow but in fact INCREASED to 69.9 billion. The
alice-in-wonderland
lunatic wall street
frauds rallied on the news as the dollar precipitously fell. The Fed Chairman
said there is a "substantial correction" in housing, which will
probably shave about 1% off growth in the second half of the year. The
Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.9 in
September -- the lowest level since April 2003. Great News….. riiiiight!..... Consumer
Confidence Higher Than Expected... riiiiight!..... and housing starts were
down sharply but not-as-bad-as-expectations game in play US
Existing Home Sales Fall 0.5% in August; Sales Price Drops Existing-home
prices fall for 1st time in 11 years along with fed jaw-boning pre-election
that inflation has been licked .....riiiiight …..despite printing worthless dollars like they’re going out of style
because they really are! Fed did nothing and stocks rallied, pre-election.....riiiiight! What about the reality
of u.s. debt service
at a record unsustainable $2 billion per day on a revolving $2 trillion charge
account with ie.,
China, etc.. The fact that foreclosures are up and that there is projected new
trade deficit record, fake government inflation numbers for election year
purposes, housing starts down 6% means little to the alice-in-wonderland lunatic frauds of wall street and the
so-called pundits including yahoo below. Almost all computerized volume is and
must be considered heavy, manipulated, economically wasteful volume [stocks
move contrary to rational analytical facts (ie., exceeded lowered expectations, things so bad interest
rates can’t rise, exceeded expectations, no earnings but outlook extraordinary,
the fed says booo as
they print more worthless dollars to finance deficits, etc. ) is money in the bank for the
frauds on wall street when they unwind said irrational positions ].
Philadelphia Federal Reserve announces that its broadest measure of
manufacturing activity fell to a negative reading for the first time since
April 2003, leading economic indicators fall .2%, and previously fell .1% though expected to show an increase, and in addition
to the larger than expected 4.1% drop in July existing home sales to its lowest
level in over two years and lifted inventories to record levels , new home
sales fell 4.3%, and a larger than expected 2.4% decline in July durable orders
which are negatives anywhere but in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world
of wall street where same is greeted as good news as also follows with b**l s**t
from Yahoo (which didn’t even reference the record unanticipated trade gap):
Nissan's
1Q Profit Plunges 54 Percent AP
Oil
Prices Hover Near $66 a Barrel AP
Delta
to Exit Bankruptcy Next Week AP
China:
U.S. to Help Probe Wheat Gluten AP
Finally,
the wait is over, as the attraction of a psychologically important number such
as 13,000 on the Dow helped underpin a bullish bias right out of the gate and
well into the close. All three major indices finished just off their highs but
averaged a one-day gain of roughly 1.0%.While corporate profits continued to
pour in better than analysts' lowered expectations, arming the bulls with
enough momentum to power the Dow further into record territory, it is worth
noting that news other than earnings also had a profound effect on the
blue-chip index. Alcoa (AA 35.76 +1.81) soared 5.3% after saying it will
explore the possible sale of its packaging unit. Another example was IBM (IBM
101.46 +2.97), which nearly matched yesterday's surprise 3.4% surge following
very upbeat buyback news.Nonetheless, more evidence that Wall Street analysts
were overly pessimistic going into the Q1 earnings season continued to provide
a floor of support for stocks even though economic trends remain worrisome.On
the economic front, March durable goods rose a stronger than expected 3.4%,
boosted significantly by aircraft orders which also helped Boeing (BA 94.69
+1.02) shareholders look past management's conservative guidance. Even though
the headline durable goods number combined with an upward revision to the
February figure still doesn't wipe out the huge 8.8% drop in January, investors
found solace in the fact that core capital equipment orders bounced back after
two months of declines with a healthy 4.7% increase. Non-defense capital goods
orders excluding transportation provide a clearer read on underlying business
investment.Investors were also eyeing the Fed's Beige Book to see what it may
or may not say about the economy. However, after the report to be used at the
May 9 FOMC meeting showed "modest or moderate" expansion, "only
modest overall wage increases," and generally stable consumer prices,
stocks caught another wave of buying interest.A bidding war taking shape that
is likely to result in the largest banking deal ever was also noteworthy.
Brokerage stocks got a lift after a consortium led by the Royal Bank of
Scotland announced a $98 bln counterbid to Barclays' (BCS 58.47 +1.62) $91 bln
offer for ABN Amro (ABN 49.77 +2.37) earlier in the week.With the market
already questioning whether gasoline supplies will be sufficient by the start
of the summer driving season, an 11th straight weekly decline in inventories,
and refinery utilization falling to 87.8%, boosting oil prices nearly 2.0%,
still wasn't enough to deter investors. Crude for June delivery closed
near $65.80/bbl. The Energy sector surged more than 2.0%, providing some
influential leadership as the day's best performing sector.Technology also
provided notable leadership to the upside as investors scooped up bellwethers
like Apple (AAPL 95.34 +2.10) and Qualcomm (QCOM 45.34 +0.98) in anticipation of
more earnings surprises in the what is expected to be one of the largest
contributors to profit growth on the S&P 500 this year.Consumer
Discretionary was another bright spot Wednesday, getting its biggest boost from
Amazon.com (AMZN 56.81 +12.06), which soared 27% after management raised its
full-year outlook and said Q1 profits more than doubled. DJ30 +135.95 NASDAQ
+23.35 SP500 +15.01 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1251/1827/2.69 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol
943/2329/1.67 bln
The current-account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports. At current levels, the United States is borrowing more than $2 billion a day from foreigners to finance the trade deficit.
U.S. HOUSING SLUMP DEEPENS, SPREADS
BARRIE MCKENNA Washington — First, Americans quit buying homes. Now, they may have stopped fixing and furnishing them too. Home Depot Inc. reported a 3-per-cent drop in profit in the three months that ended in October, amid mounting evidence that the U.S. housing slump is getting worse. “I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, and I don't see anything that says it's going to get significantly better in 2007,” said Bob Nardelli, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive officer. Mr. Nardelli said job losses in the home construction market are the worst he's seen in 35 years, and the pain is starting to spread to the home renovation market. “The loss of jobs ... in the home construction market is at unprecedented levels,” Mr. Nardelli told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. “Home builders [are] basically writing off earnest money and liquidating land. We're starting to see a lot of that unemployment find its way over to the small repair and remodel contractors.” Problems in the housing sector have also begun to affect how consumers spend their money. In October, U.S. retail sales fell at an annual rate of 0.2 per cent — the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday. The decline was heavily influenced by lower gasoline prices, which resulted in less revenue for gas stations. But there were also sharp declines in building materials (down 0.3 per cent), furniture (down 0.7 per cent) and department store sales (down 0.7 per cent). Over the past three months, sales of building materials have plunged at an annual rate of 10.6 per cent. “The housing slowdown left its grimy fingerprints all over this report,” BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. Lower gasoline prices don't seem to be causing consumers to spend elsewhere, as many economists had predicted. Even if you strip out volatile gas, food and auto sales, all other retail sales rose a meagre 0.1 per cent October. “People are being very cautious,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist at High Frequency Economics. “The housing crunch is now hurting.” At least two other bellwether U.S. retailers — Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. — reported Tuesday that their sales and profit remain strong, in spite of the problems in the housing sector. But executives at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, acknowledged that sales in the third quarter were disappointing and it is already vowing its biggest-ever discounting binge on items such as toys and electronics to keep cash registers ringing this Christmas. “This season, no one will doubt Wal-Mart's leadership on price and value,” Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said. Wal-Mart's profit rose to $2.65-billion (U.S.) or 63 cents a share in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, up from $2.37-billion or 57 cents a year earlier. That was slightly below what analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Sales were up 12 per cent to $83.5-billion. But those figures include sales at newly opened stores and foreign stores. Sales at U.S. stores that have been open at least a year were up just 1.5 per cent, and Mr. Scott said fourth-quarter sales would rise just 1 to 2 per cent.
There
is nothing to rationally justify the previous up move or mixed results in the
market other than what is tantamount to a negative, and based upon spurious
data from the government; ie., fake government numbers said total PPI rose a
smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the
0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and
energy) unexpectedly (RIIIIIGHT!) fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first
decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003. Home Sales Decline in 28 States, D.C..
Real estate prices down/stagnant. But housing stocks…..up.....riiiiight!.....in the fraudulent "alice-in-wonderland"
lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer,
previously wrote,” U.S. Trade Deficit Falls 0.3 Percent in June to $64.8B,
Offsetting Jump in Chinese Imports. Dell
Recall Stems From sony Production Flaw
WASHINGTON (AP) -- America's trade deficit showed a slight improvement
as strong global growth pushed U.S. exports to a record level. That helped
offset a surge in Chinese imports and record crude oil prices. The deficit
declined 0.3 percent in June, compared with May, dropping to $64.8 billion,
still the fifth largest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department reported
Thursday. The deficit is running at an annual rate of $768 billion through the
first six months of this year, putting the country on track to see a fifth
straight record imbalance. Last year's deficit was $716.7 billion. Prior
considerations remain apposite in this clearly overvalued market. The frauds on
wall street feel compelled to continue their tradition/superstition/fraud
tactic of buying on the rumor and selling on the news (fact) of the Fed’s
temporary pause in rate hikes. You see, the facts/news do not rationally
warrant holding dollar based securities/stocks but provide a means to scam the
stupid money, to the benefit of the wall street frauds/scammers and smart
money. Yahoo previously commented: Friday
was a wild day on Wall Street with early gains fueled by an encouraging July
jobs report being wiped away as the return of concern tied to an economic
slowdown outweighed the potential of a pause in tightening at Tuesday's Fed
meeting. Before the bell, nonfarm payrolls rose a less than expected 113,000
and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since November, suggesting
the labor market is losing steam and reinforcing the view that the economy is
on track for a soft landing. To wit, fed funds futures were pricing in a 44%
chance....., to which I responded, Wild..... I’ll give you wild: GM says their
quarterly loss was $3.4 billion and not 3.2 billion as reported; Ford says
their loss was $200 million dollars more than they previously reported and will
now join gm in worker buyouts; but both GM and Ford will now offer built-in
ipods which should substantially help their core business of building cars;
meanwhile, options/accounting scandal/subterfuge occurring at the apple ipod
(anything but computers) company. Analyst says GM good news now behind it
(past/discounted), yet stock still rose upon said analysis …..riiiiight…..
daaaaah! Apple Computer Inc. warned Thursday that it may have to revise its
profits dating back to 2002 in a worsening stock option scandal, maybe even
suspension, that has cast a harsh light on Silicon Valley's compensation
practices. Don’t forget that GDP growth slowed substantially and below
expectations at 2.5% which in the alice-in-wonderland lunatic world of wall
street is of course good news. Stagflation? The fact is that no rational
investor would choose dollar based stocks/securities when they could get less
risky/liquid (approx.) 5% yielding cds, money market instruments, short-term
treasuries/funds, etc.. However it’s not rational investors that are racking up
commission dollars trading in and out of stocks like termites eating away at
the huge capital funds which they control. Nothing constituting real value
would account for the fraudulent rally mode this and other days. Highly
leveraged obfuscating mergers/acquisitions, also very commissionable
(investment bankers/brokers), and historically have more often than not ended
quite badly; oil prices now above $64; yes, as in the last crash, they will get
fooled again’ as stocks up sharply in the fraudulent alice-in-wonderland
lunatic world of wall street where down is up and up is down. The stock market
has never been so backward-looking. Indeed, amazingly, the pundits/analysts are
even talking SEASONAL considerations in their fraud in the inducement which is
the height of absurdity (such things are discounted well in advance in a
rational market). The once objective, fact-oriented Barrons publication has now
become a shill for the continuing fraud on wall street. Bush no conservative
says Buckley (who also says that in Europe bush’s failed war policies would
have required his expected resignation).....daaaaah!; neither are the
hillbillies clintons and papa hillbilly bush. CNN's DOBBS BLASTS U.S. ISRAEL POLICY... BUCHANAN: 'Israel policy violates international law, is
un-American and un-Christian'... The government is also catching on
and playing the “better than expectations” game with the still very substantial
deficit numbers, clouded by the use of social security funds used in the
general fund rather than allocated for the defacto bankrupt social security
system where they belong. ! Remember, leading economic indicators are down .6
percent continuing an ignored (by wall street frauds) downward trend/weakness
extending back to the summer, 2005. Options scandal as was inherent in the
(fraudulent) dotcom bust is extent and under way in nasdaq particularly. Spotlight
on the Stock Option Scandal-The share prices of
companies involved in stock options backdating have held up well compared to
the broader market. But shareholders might be in for a rougher ride. Plus, why
the Nasdaq has its hands full. I previously warned be very skeptical of up-coming
government/corporate/collaborative/wall street data inasmuch as they are quite
desperate and have proven [ie., illegal Iraq war/occupation, 911 attack(for the
neocon contrived pearl harbor effect)/who ordered NORAD to stand down?/who were
the pre911(within days) short-sellers?/ and the twin towers
implosion, the missile that hit the pentagon precisely in the area that
housed the army investigators who announced days before the opening of an
investigation into a substantial pentagon fraud, etc.] that the truth is no
obstacle when falsity is expedient and the lunatic frauds on wall street will
try to tell you what’s up is down and what’s down is up. Lou Dobbs gets paid a
lot of money to keep track of such things and doubts the verity of the
government numbers. He is riiiiight! The catch-22 is that the defacto bankrupt
u.s. is printing worthless paper (so much so that they’ve stopped reporting M3)
and borrowing beyond sustainability, which is hyperinflationary despite false
government numbers (ie., core inflation number to fraudulently decrease yield
to ibond holders, etc.). Higher interest rates to prop worthless dollar and
finance deficits inevitable despite wishin', hopin', and lyin’ to the contrary;
foreclosures up, housing down, default notices up 67% (particularly in
california, ie., orange, la, ventura, counties etc.) nationwide. Don’t forget:
the equity in housing has been stripped out of real estate by way of the
refinancing boom, which artificially stimulated the economic numbers while
ultimately leaving buyers with debt exceeding actual property values. There is
substantial downside bias in light of real economic considerations,
particularly beyond the moment/trading day given that this bull (s**t) cycle in
this indisputable secular bear market is over. Remember: more contrived
wasteful commissions to the wall street frauds, the level and percentage of
which should be examined in light of computerization and decreased costs
attendant to same especially since only A Small Fraction Of What wall street
Does Is A Net Positive For The Economy (New Investment Capital), The Rest Is
Tantamount To A (Economically) "Wasteful Tax" (On The Economy) via
'churn and earn' computerized programmed trades.
US '.....going
bankrupt'
By Edmund Conway,
Economics Editor (Filed: 14/07/2006)
|
The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to
an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's
central bank. |
A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare
timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to
research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St
Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.
Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is
already bankrupt. "To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the
United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute,
bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors,"
he asked.
According to his central analysis, "the US government
is, indeed, bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who,
in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly
or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds''.
The budget deficit in the US is not massive. The Bush
administration this week cut its forecasts for the fiscal shortfall this year
by almost a third, saying it will come in at 2.3pc of gross domestic product.
This is smaller than most European countries - including the UK - which have
deficits north of 3pc of GDP.
Prof Kotlikoff, who teaches at Boston University, says:
"The proper way to consider a country's solvency is to examine the
lifetime fiscal burdens facing current and future generations. If these burdens
exceed the resources of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply get
so high as to preclude their full collection, the country's policy will be
unsustainable and can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.
"Does the United States fit this bill? No one knows
for sure, but there are strong reasons to believe the United States may be
going broke."
Experts have calculated that the country's long-term
"fiscal gap" between all future government spending and all future
receipts will widen immensely as the Baby Boomer generation retires, and as the
amount the state will have to spend on healthcare and pensions soars. The total
fiscal gap could be an almost incomprehensible $65.9 trillion, according to a study
by Professors Gokhale and Smetters.
The figure is massive because President George W Bush has
made major tax cuts in recent years, and because the bill for Medicare, which
provides health insurance for the elderly, and Medicaid, which does likewise for
the poor, will increase greatly due to demographics.
Prof Kotlikoff said: "This figure is more than five
times US GDP and almost twice the size of national wealth. One way to wrap
one's head around $65.9trillion is to ask what fiscal adjustments are needed to
eliminate this red hole. The answers are terrifying. One solution is an
immediate and permanent doubling of personal and corporate income taxes.
Another is an immediate and permanent two-thirds cut in Social Security and
Medicare benefits. A third alternative, were it feasible, would be to
immediately and permanently cut all federal discretionary spending by
143pc."
The scenario has serious implications for the dollar. If
investors lose confidence in the US's future, and suspect the country may at some
point allow inflation to erode away its debts, they may reduce their holdings
of US Treasury bonds.
Prof Kotlikoff said: "The United States has
experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the
same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries
over the past century."
UPDATE - Two former NYSE
traders found guilty of fraud
Stock market staggers, but investors still may be too
optimistic
Commentary: Newsletters react to
stock markets' losing week
By Peter Brimelow,
MarketWatch 12:04 AM ET Jul 17, 2006
Investors may still be too optimistic
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- First, a proprietary word: on Friday night, the
Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average
recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing
newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus-23.8%. This
was certainly below the 31.4% it showed on Tuesday night, when Mark Hulbert
worried, presciently we must say, that it was too strong from a contrary
opinion point of view. But it's still above its 12.6% reading at end of June,
although, Mark pointed out, the stock market had declined in the interim. And
since Mark wrote, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had three triple-digit
down days.
Not
good.
Dow
Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote Friday morning: "If the Dow breaks
support at 10,760, I think we could have some nasty action, even some crash-type
action." But, perhaps significantly, Russell did not quite hit the panic
button when the Dow did indeed close at 10,739 Friday night.
He simply
remarked, supporting the contrary opinion view: "Three days in a row with
the Dow down over 100 points each day -- you don't see that very often. But
still no signs of real fear, no capitulation, no panic -- just down, down, and
down. The key consideration here is that there is still no sign of big money
coming into this market. In fact, the big money has been leaving this market
all year. ... The longer the market continues down without a panic decline, the
worse the ultimate panic will be when it arrives."
What is Wrong with the Stock Market?
Dr. Khaled
Batarfi
John D.
Rockefeller was once asked why he decided to sell all his stocks just months
before the 1929 Wall Street Crash. He explained: One morning, I was on the way
to my office and stopped to have my shoes polished. The guy asked my advice
about the shares he bought. If people with this kind of talent were now playing
the market, I knew there was something wrong.....
U.S. Treasury balances at Fed fell on July
17Tue Jul 18, 2006
WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S.
Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's
latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):
July 17 July 14 (respectively)
Fed acct 4.087 4.935
Tax/loan note acct
10.502 10.155
Cash balance 14.589
15.192
National debt,
subject to limit
8,311.633 8,323.084
The statutory debt limit
is $8.965 trillion.
The Treasury said there were $192 million in individual tax refunds and $23 million in corporate tax refunds issued.
End Of The Bubble Bailouts
A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.29.06 - For a quarter-century, Americans’ spending binge has been fueled by a
declining savings rate and increased borrowing. The savings rate of American
consumers has fallen from 12% in the early 1980s to -1.7% today (see chart
below). This means that, on average, consumer spending has risen about a half
percentage point more than disposable, or after-tax, income per year for a
quarter-century.
The fact that Americans are saving less and less of their after-tax
income is only half the profligate consumer story. If someone borrows to buy a
car, his savings rate declines because his outlays go up but his disposable
income doesn’t. So the downward march in the personal savings rate is closely
linked to the upward march in total consumer debt (mortgage, credit card, auto,
etc.) in relation to disposable income (see chart below).
Robust consumer spending was fueled first by the soaring stock market of
the 1990s and, more recently, by the housing bubble, as house prices departed
from their normal close link to the Consumer Price Index (see chart below) and
subsequently racked up huge appreciation for homeowners, who continued to save
less and spend more. Thanks to accommodative lenders eager to provide
refinancings and home equity loans, Americans extracted $719 billion in cash
from their houses last year after a $633 billion withdrawal in 2004, according
to the Federal Reserve.
But the housing bubble is deflating rapidly. I expect at least a 20%
decline in median single-family house prices nationwide, and that number may be
way understated. A bursting of the bubble would force many homeowners to curb
their outlays in order to close the gaps between their income and spending
growth. That would surely precipitate a major recession that would become
global, given the dependence of most foreign countries on U.S. consumers to buy
the excess goods and services for which they have no other markets.
That is, unless another source of money can bridge the gap
between consumer incomes and outlays, just as house appreciation seamlessly
took over when stocks nosedived. What could that big new source of money be?
And would it be available soon, given the likelihood that house prices will
swoon in coming quarters?
One possible source of big, although not immediate, money to sustain
consumer spending is inheritance. Some estimates in the 1990s had the postwar
babies, who have saved little for their retirement, inheriting between $10
trillion and $41 trillion from their parents in the coming decades. But
subsequent work by AARP, using the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer
Finances for 2004 and previous years, slashed the total for inheritances of all
people alive today to $12 trillion in 2005 dollars. Most of it, $9.2 trillion,
will go to pre-boomers born before 1946, only $2.1 trillion to the postwar
babies born between 1946 and 1964, and $0.7 trillion to the post-boomers.
Furthermore, the value of all previous inheritances as reported in the
2004 survey was $49,902 on average, with $70,317 for pre-boomers, $48,768 for
boomers and $24,348 for post-boomers. Clearly, these are not numbers that
provide for comfortable retirements and, therefore, allow people to continue to
spend like drunken sailors.
What other assets could consumers borrow against or liquidate to support
spending growth in the future? After all, they do have a lot of net worth,
almost $54 trillion for households and nonprofit organizations as of the end of
the first quarter. Nevertheless, there aren’t any other big assets left to tap.
Another big stock bonanza is unlikely for decades, and the real estate bubble
is deflating.
Deposits total $6.3 trillion, but the majority, $4.9 trillion worth, is
in time and savings deposits, largely held for retirement by financially
conservative people. Is it likely that a speculator who owns five houses has
sizable time deposits to fall back on? Households and nonprofits hold $3.2
trillion in bonds and other credit market instruments, but most owned by individuals
are in conservative hands. Life insurance reserves can be borrowed, but their
total size, $1.1 trillion, pales in comparison to the $1.8 trillion that
homeowners extracted from their houses in the 2003-2005 years. There’s $6.7
trillion of equity in noncorporate business, but the vast majority of that is
needed by typically cash-poor small businesses to keep their doors open.
Pension funds might be a source of cash for consumers who want to live it
up now and take the Scarlett O’Hara, “I’ll worry about that tomorrow” attitude
toward retirement. They totaled $11.1 trillion in the first quarter, but that
number includes public funds and private defined benefit plans that are seldom
available to pre-retirees unless they leave their jobs.
The private defined contribution plans, typically 401(k)s, totaled $2.5
trillion in 2004 and have been growing rapidly because employers favor them.
But sadly, many employees, especially those at lower income levels, don’t share
their bosses’ zeal. Only about 70% participate in their company 401(k) plans
and thereby take advantage of company contributions. Lower paid employees are
especially absent from participation, with 40% of those making less than
$20,000 contributing (60% of those earning $20,000 to $40,000), while 90% of
employees earning $100,000 or more participate.
Furthermore, the amount that employees could net from withdrawals from
defined contribution plans would be far less than the $2.5 trillion total,
probably less than the $1.8 trillion they pulled out of their houses from 2003
to 2005. That $2.5 trillion total includes company contributions that are not
yet vested and can’t be withdrawn. Also, withdrawals by those under 59½ years
old are subject to a 10% penalty, with income taxes due on the remainder.
With soaring stock portfolios now ancient history and leaping house prices about to be, no other sources, such as inheritance or pension fund withdrawals, are likely to fill the gap between robust consumer spending and weak income growth. Consumer retrenchment and the saving spree I’ve been expecting may finally be about to commence. And the effects on consumer behavior, especially on borrowing and discretionary spending, will be broad and deep.
WHISPERS
OF MERGERS SET OFF BOUTS OF SUSPICIOUS TRADING...
August 27, 2006 NYTimes By GRETCHEN MORGENSONThe boom in corporate mergers is creating concern that illicit trading
ahead of deal announcements is becoming a systemic problem.
(4-24-07) Lunatic frauds on wall street rally on as bad business news can get, sales of previously owned homes take biggest tumble in two decades, consumer confidence down sharply , b**l s**t (including fake economic reports-they lie about everything), higher oil prices, and, ie., ignoring reality regarding, erosion in consumer sentiment and one-year inflation expectations at the highest level in 8 months, rising food and energy costs, Systemic Recession The US is sliding into a long-term economic downturn, ChinaMerica America owned the 20th century, but it won't own the 21st, Dollar Down, Gold to Soar ...Real Estate Fiz...Recession 2007 ...Catch 22 – Lower interest rates in u.s. would decimate already worthless dollar REALITY COURTESY OF http://www.trendsresearch.com, negative inflation/economic data and continue their backward looking frenzied rally mode despite higher oil prices, unexpected jump in jobless claims, mortgage defaults highest in 37 years, retailers warning that April same-store sales will be weak, and the largest rise in import prices, Citigroup to cut 17000 jobs and earnings down 11% but stock rallies, national mortgage delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 2.87% in Q1, sentiment down, Fed Governor Mishkin saying the current rate of inflation remains too high, and on previous stellar employment report from government ...riiiiight!..., (what about the real $11 TRILLION unfunded social security/medicare unfunded liabilty by acturial/accounting), as previously u.s. auto sector sparks rally...riiiiight!..., despite previously experts acknowledging SEC must crackdown on rampant insider trading on M&A info, both services and manufacturing indices far below expectations, u.s. auto sales down, February existing home sales up but down 8.5% from previous year.....riiiiight!...previously, manufacturing index barely positive and substantially below expectations, producer prices up and above expectations, citing obfuscating mergers, higher oil prices, and a new way to scam the unwary public by unloading their worthless paper on workers through ESOPs, rally into the close building on previous stagflation report of high core rate of inflation, slightly higher spending on lower income, high oil prices and fake upward revision to GDP report (riiiiight! US GDP growth hobbled by stocks of unsold ) still relying on b**l s**t alone, even as Bernanke totally dashes wall street’s previous b.s. story underlying the previous week’s fraudulent up move based on b**l s**t alone and the paper paper chase/commissionable ponzi scheme continues (with borrowed funds) but will unwind/unravel as they always do, Home prices down/worst since '94, defaults up, new home sales unexpectedly down 3.9%.....it’s the weather say the frauds on wall street.....riiiiight!, home inventories up, oil prices up, leading indicators down again, existing home sales unexpectedly up.....right!, even as home inventories up as prices fell, warnings from the tech sector, all no problemo for the frauds on wall street, [fed heads, who’ve been printing worthless dollars like they’re going out of style because they are (so much so that they’ve stopped reporting M3), remove words ‘additional firming’ is excuse for ridiculous mixed close as previously dollar precipitously fell on the news which is catch 22 as same is hyper-inflationary/stagflationary and dollar denominated assets fall in value], home construction unexpectedly up according to government report (riiiiight.....if you believe same.....I don’t) though permits down, lunatic frauds on wall street rally on the news, builder/construction sentiment down again and now below 50% reflecting reality, obfuscating mergers/b.s. to the rescue, previous CPI (.4), wholesale (1.3 annualized 15.6), and core (.4) inflation rates far exceed expectations as worthless dollar and massive printing thereof and debt come home to roost, unexpected decline on the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index/disappointing NY Empire State Index, commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds continues, blowout Q1 earnings report from wall street lunatic frauds morgan stanley, goldman sachs (daaaaah!) even as record foreclosure rate and retail sales below expectations, mergers obfuscate dismal picture, retail sales down (they say it’s the weather.....riiiiight.....how about consumer debt at record $2.41 trillion) jobs data from private (as opposed to government) entity below expectations (who would have thunk it!.....riiiiight! But wait; latest government data at expectations and above, revising past data as unemployment rate falls to 4.5%.....and says trade deficit trend changing..... riiiiight!), along with below expectations oil inventories which had spurred oil price rally, while productivity below expectations/wage costs higher and above expectations (very inflationary), no problemo for the lunatic frauds on wall street (what a joke wall street is!) who are maniacal as lunatics suckers short-covering ‘bear market/higher oil prices/fake economic reports/fed speak rally’ (based upon b**l s**t/fake reports even assuming fake growth rate though false, the decline of the fiat currency, the worthless dollar would negate same in real terms) (b.s. contrary to bernanke testimony before congress owing to previous implicit threat of prosecution for false statements)’ fueled by b**l s**t alone ridiculously rally into the close to suck the suckers in; ie., as the Dow Jones industrial average up 34.54, S&P down .52, and NASDAQ up .87, all very commissionable on heavy volume, as in final pre-election result push for bush, which fell very short but has provided the same pump-priming of the market as most recently seen in 1999 which ended quite badly even without the exacerbating effects of huge unsustainable and debilitating debt/deficits deferring/delaying/prolonging the inevitable reality even as entire domestic u.s. industries are rendered what is tantamount to defunct and with corporate welfare unwisely spent (war crimes, etc.). Greenspan Warns of Likely U.S. Recession..... FORECLOSURES AT RECORD PACE, retail sales below expectations. TOP INVESTOR, SOROS' PARTNER, SEES U.S. PROPERTY CRASH 3-16-07 Major Mortgage Lender On Bankruptcy's Doorstep... REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted at 0)..... Everything is hunky doory says financial propaganda minister/comedian paulson (son of pat paulson?) while Moody’s says at least a 10% correction from fraudulent bubble highs is warranted/appropriate (I believe that to be a modest analytical view). Who would you believe? What do you expect a member of a failed administration to say? What’s changed? Nothing, as the frauds on wall street continue their commissionable ponzi scheme with borrowed (ie., japan, etc.) and suckers’ funds. Real estate experts say the pain/damage will exceed that of prior downturns since the great depression. Bernanke responds to recession prediction with b**l s**t (to his small credit he begrudgingly admits to looming fiscal crisis). Top investor, Soros partner sees property crash: 'You can't believe how bad it's going to get'... Manufacturing activity in u.s. up say fake reports (what, paper/worthless dollars/ securities/packaging for imported goods/parts/components, etc.). BROKERS AT 'TOP-TIER' FIRMS CHARGED IN INSIDER TRADING SCHEME JUST TIP OF THE ICEBERG. New home sales down 17%.....
Wall Street Lunacy 2006 
Current Topics 2006
Financial Lunacy 2006