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Wall Street Lunacy 2007
Full Moons, Fraud, and Lunatics. What More Can Be Said.Updates Through Current DateBackground to the Current Economic CrisisCurrent Market Numbers/Closing Prices From Yahoo
(3-31-08) (DOW +46, NASDAQ +17, S&P +7) [CLOSE- OIL
$101.65/ GOLD $922 / SILVER $17.31 / PLATINUM $2,006 / DOLLAR= .63 EURO, 99
YEN, .503 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD
3.41%]. eND OF FIRST QUARTER AND DOW –8%, nASDAQ-14%, AND S&P-10%. I
WARNED AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR
POWERS, I WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN
AGAINST INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO STRENGTH/TAKE
PROFITS/SELL). GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL (TAKE PROFITS) AS THE
WALL STREET SCAM IS UNEARTHED BY REVELATION THAT OF 9 INVESTMENT VEHICLES
S&P (MAJORITY OF 401K HOLDINGS, ETC.) WAS WORST PERFORMER (1% OR LESS AND
IF YOU FACTOR IN DECLINING DOLLAR, NEGATIVE RELATIVE TO NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED
ALTERNATIVES OVER DECADE). 5 REASONS WHY
THE FED HAS FAILED. MIDWEST
MANUFACTURING INDEX AT 48.2 INDICATES CONTRACTION BUT LESS SEVERE THAN EXPECTED…..RIIIIIGHT…..PROPOSAL
BY OF ALL PEOPLE A WALL STREET FRAUD NAMED PAULSON SEEKS TO ELIMINATE SEC BY MERGING
INTO SLOTHLIKE COMMODITIES ARM WITH NET EFFECT OF NO ENFORCEMENT OF EXISTING
LAWS/REGS AGAINST FRAUD WHICH IS NECESSARY (ALONG DISGORGEMENT OF THEIR
FRAUDULENT GAINS BY THE WALL STREET PERPETRATORS) ACCORDING TO WELL RESPECTED
ECONOMIST/ANALYST. THIS IS FIRST OVERALL SINCE GREAT DEPRESSION WHICH TELLS
VOLUMES ABOUT THE SEVERITY OF THE CRISIS YET SOLVES NOTHING. ONE ANALYST SAYS
EYES ON WRITEDOWNS TO COME. COMMENTATOR SAYS 1929 REVISITED YET REGS DO NOTHING
BUT ELIMINATE PROTECTIONS ACCORDED BY sec. ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST/AUTHOR/PROFESSOR SAYS NO ONE KNOWS HOW DEEP/DARK/AND LENGTH
OF CURRENT CRISIS, SO SEVERE REQUIRING EMERGENCY ACTION YET DOING NOTHING OF
SUBSTANCE AND THAT DOLLAR/DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES/ASSETS ARE HIGH RISK
AND RELATIVELY LOW RETURN. ANOTHER WELL RESPECTED ECONOMIST SAYS MUST USE
EXISTING LAWS AGINST FRAUD, PROSECUTE, AND GO AFTER THE HEDGE FUNDS. 3-28-08 freddie mac economist says housing prices
might continue to fall through 2010 as house prices fall 29%, orders for new
homes down 75%, and housing starts fall 9% to 50 year low. kb homes registers
$268 million loss and offers downbeat outlook on housing crisis while j.c.
penny on retail end offers equally bad outlook and worse than expected
quarterly results to come. consumer spending weakest in 17 months. fake core
inflation report is also meaningless (excludes food and energy) at tepid 2%.
consumer sentiment index at lowest since 1992, a 16 year low. frenzy over
j.p.morgan memo on how to beef up income on mortgage applications. s&p economist
says we’re in a recession and points to a very bumpy year ahead. one analyst
says troubled market/economy to continue and shorts stocks, is long on metals,
points to failed structured finance market, failed fed and globally recognized
folly of helicopter ben (bernanke), property continue down, dollar continue
downward slide, and bubble in emerging markets. one reporter examining
financial newsletters says vast majority bleak, pessimistic in their
outlook/forecasts. socal congressman says us hole getting bigger, deeper, and
darker and regarding the fed, too little too late, kind of like his
caleefornia. yet another analyst says we’re in a nationwide recession (he
previously had called california’s recession but stopped short of nationwide),
points to job losses, higher oil/gas prices, rising debt burdens and worse on
wall street than main street, not optimistic on real estate as foreclosures and
supply up with prices declining with early 2009 at best the trough, and that
there are other financial institutions in similar situation to that of bear
stearns. 3-27-08 GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL (TAKE
PROFITS) AS THE WALL STREET SCAM IS UNEARTHED BY REVELATION THAT OF 9
INVESTMENT VEHICLES S&P (MAJORITY OF 401K HOLDINGS, ETC.) WAS WORST
PERFORMER (1% OR LESS AND IF YOU FACTOR IN DECLINING DOLLAR, NEGATIVE RELATIVE
TO NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED ALTERNATIVES OVER DECADE). FOURTH QUARTER ECONOMIC GROWTH REVISED UPWARD TO
ANEMIC .6% (RIIIIIGHT…..SO THEY WON’T HAVE TO USE THE R FOR REALITY WORD
RECESSION). OIL UP ON SUPPLY CONCERNS AND DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY. UNEMPLOYMENT
CLAIMS AT HIGH 366,000 AND ORACLE DISAPPOINTS ON SALES AS MERRILL IS
DOWNGRADED. ONE ANALYST SAYS LEHMAN (-9%) BEARS EERIE SIMILARITIES TO BEAR
STEARNS, CITES SUBSTANTIAL NUMBER OF PUTS AND RUN ON BANKS WHICH WILL HELP
FOREIGN BANKS (IE., SWISS, ETC.), ALSO CAUTIONS ON DRUG SECTOR/SIDE EFFECTS.
OIL ANALYST EMPHASIZES $7 RUN IN TWO DAYS, BOMBING OF OIL SUPPLY LINE IN IRAQ,
WEAKER DOLLAR, LIQUIDITY CRISIS, IRAQ VIOLENCE, LOWER REFINERY RUNS AND SAYS
OIL/GAS PRICES HIGHER BEFORE LOWER. ONE ECONOMIST SAYS CREDIT CRISIS AND POINTS
TO PURCHASING POWER FAILURE AS BORROWED FUNDS (IE., HOME EQUITY, ETC.) ARE
DEPLETED AND WAGES LOWER, WHILE ANOTHER ECONOMIST WHO HAS ALREADY CALLED
RECESSION SEES MORE REGULATION FOR TROUBLED
INVESTMENT BANKS AS DISTINGUISHED FROM FDIC INSURED COMMERCIAL BANKS AND
SAYS CREDIT CRUNCH WILL CONTINUE. AIRLINE COMMENTATOR/ANALYST CITES OLDER
PLANES FOR PUBLICIZED PROBLEMS, SURCHARGES/HIGHER FUEL COSTS FOR HIGHER PRICES.
3-26-08 GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL (TAKE
PROFITS) IN WHAT REMAINS OF THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY AS THE WALL STREET
SCAM UNEARTHED BY REVELATION THAT OF 9 INVESTMENT VEHICLES S&P (MAJORITY OF
401K HOLDINGS, ETC.) WAS WORST PERFORMER (1% OR LESS AND IF YOU FACTOR IN
DECLINING DOLLAR, NEGATIVE RELATIVE TO NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED ALTERNATIVES OVER
DECADE). OIL UP ON SUPPLY CONCERNS AND DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY. BANKING
SECTOR DOWNGRADED CITING MORE WRITE-DOWNS AND –84% EARNINGS (CITI, ETC.).
FACTORY ORDERS/DURABLES DOWN MORE THAN EXPECTED 1.75% AND NEW HOME SALES DOWN
1.8% ALONG WITH PRICE DECLINES (INCLUDING MEDIAN PRICE DECLINE). WSJ ARTICLE
RAISES SPECTER OF FED BANKRUPTCY AND PUBLIC BAILOUT. ONE ANALYST CITES CITIBANK
DIFFICULTIES, LBO TROUBLES (IE., CLEAR CHANNEL, ETC.), FED HOLDING JUNK PAPER,
AND RECOMMENDS DEFENSIVE (IE., CONSUMER STAPLES, ETC.) POSTURE INCLUDING
MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS (FAVORABLE CURRENCY TRANSLATION). OIL
ANALYST SAYS RECORD OIL/ GAS PRICES (GAS UP ANOTHER 5-10 CENTS) AND CITES
DECLINE IN REFINERY RUN, CONFLICT IN IRAQ, AND EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK’S FIGHT
AGAINST INFLATION/LOWER DOLLAR AND SAYS NATURAL GAS AN INTERESTING PLAY. ONE
REPORTER CITES DROP IN GAS SUPPLIES AND FINANCIAL SECTOR WRITEDOWNS. R.E.
ANALYST POINTS TO SO. CAL. 400% INCREASE IN FORECLOSURES AND SAYS NO
IMPROVEMENT UNTIL AT LEAST LATE 2008/EARLY 2009. CURRENCY EXPERT SAYS FINANCIAL
INSTITUTIONS WILL SURVIVE BUT WON’T BE LENDING, DOLLAR RISK TO THE DOWNSIDE,
FED HOLDING BAD RESERVES, HOUSING MARKET TO CONTINUE DECLINE, AND FAVORS EURO. 3-25-08 GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL (TAKE
PROFITS) THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY INTO THE CLOSE WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T AND NOTHING BUT BAD ECONOMIC NEWS AS WALL
STREET FRAUDS ATTEMPT TO WINDOW DRESS
REALISTICALLY DISMAL FIRST QUARTER NUMBERS TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND
COMPUTERIZED PROGRAM TRADE COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING. DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY.
earnings downgrade for merrill lynch/financials and reluctance to take
mark-to-market loss (prompted bear bailout) scuttles(?) clear channel deal.
GOVERNMENT HIRING NEW (FDIC) BANK REGULATORS FOR INCREASING BANK FAILURES.
S&P CASE SHILLER INDEX REGISTERS SHARPEST HOUSING PRICE DECLINE ON RECORD
AT –11.4%, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX DOWN TO 5 YR. LOW OF 65 WHICH IS
SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW EXPECTED 73, AND EXPECTATIONS INDEX AT LOWEST SINCE 1973.
KEN SHREVE OF IBD POINTS TO VOLUME (COMMISSION GENERATING COMPUTERIZED
PROGRAMMED TRADES SIMULATING DEMAND) AS A GOOD SIGN…RIIIIIGHT…CITES SELLING
PRESSURE ON THE WAY UP AND SAYS WAIT AND SEE AS NEW LEADERSHIP DEVELOPS…RIIIIIGHT
(WHICH TRANSLATED MEANS HE DOESN’T KNOW WHERE THIS IRRATIONALLY EXUBERANT
MARKET IS GOING. S&P CASE SHILLER ANALYST/VP SAYS HOME PRICES IN DECLINE
WHICH ACCELERATED IN THE LAST 6-9 MONTHS AND SEES –20%/TROUGH IN LATE 2008.
R.E. ANALYST DOESN’T SEE BOTTOM PARTICULARLY IN SO. CALIFORNIA (IE., LA, SAN
DIEGO, ETC.) (MIAMI, LAS VEGAS, PHOENIX VERY BAD). AN ECONOMIST SAYS ANOTHER
YEAR OF DECLINES SINCE CONSUMER SPENDING/CONFIDENCE HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY.
CALIFORNIA BUREAUCRAT (THAT’S ALL THERE IS) SAYS TOUGH TIMES AHEAD, POINTS TO
UPSIDE DOWN CONDITIONS (MORTGAGE LOANS GREATER THAN PROPERTY VALUES) AND SAYS
HOUSE OF CARDS. ANOTHER ECONOMIST SAYS MORE EROSION ON THE PRICE SIDE,-20%, AND
A WAYS TO GO. R.E. PROF. SAYS SLIDE TO CONTINUE UNTIL EXCESS SUPPLY IS CLEARED.
3-24-08 GREAT
OPPORTUNITY TO SELL INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET/SHORT-COVERING RALLY
(TAKE PROFITS) WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T
AND NO REAL ECONOMIC NEWS AS WALL STREET FRAUDS IN LAST DITCH EFFORT TO WINDOW
DRESS REALISTICALLY DISMAL FIRST QUARTER NUMBERS TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED
AND COMPUTERIZED PROGRAM TRADE COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING. THE
ELECTION-YEAR-INDUCED RALLY FAKE NEWS PUSHED BY THE WALL STREET FRAUDS IS A
MEAGER TWO-FOLD; VIZ., EXISTING HOME SALES INCREASED (JAN.-FEB.) 2.9% EXCEEDING
SUBSTANTIALLY ECONOMISTS’ PREDICTIONS AND J.P. MORGAN WILLING TO PAY $10
INSTEAD OF $2 PER SHARE FOR FAILED INVESTMENT BANK BEAR STEARNS. REALITY:
INCREASED SALES DUE TO INCREASED FORECLOSURE SALES; PRICES DOWN 8.2%; MEDIAN
HOME PRICE FELL MOST EVER ON RECORD; INCREASED BEAR MONEY TO PLACATE
SHAREHOLDERS DESPERATE MOVE TO KEEP WORTHLESS SECURITIES FROM BEING DUMPED IN
MARKET WHERE SAME CAN’T BE SOLD AND WHERE SUCH WOULD RESULT IN OTHER SUCH BEING
MARKED TO MARKET (PENNIES ON A DOLLAR). ONE ANALYST SAYS NOTHING FUNDAMENTALLY
HAS CHANGED, DAY TO DAY TRADING ON DAY’S NEWS AND TODAY A HAPPY (NON) NEWS
DAY…RIIIIIGHT…AND RECOMMENDS FOR PROTECTION NON-U.S. ASSETS/SECURITIES, METALS,
AND BIG CAP TECH/MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS (POSITIVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION).
AN ECONOMIST SAYS THE FED’S CONFUSING DEAL PROTECTS ITS OWN MONEY BY
ESSENTIALLY PROVIDING A “BRIDGE LOAN” TO PREVENT THE WORTHLESS SECURITIES FROM
BEING DUMPED WHERE THERE IS NO MARKET FOR SAME CAUSING FURTHER WRITEDOWNS
across THE BOARD ON MARK TO MARKET. ANOTHER ANALYST EMPHASIZES DISFUNCTIONAL
BANKING/CONTINUED WRITEDOWNS/LOSSES/BALANCE SHEET PROBLEMS FOR FINANCIAL
INSTITUTIONS/WE’VE NOT SEEN THE BOTTOM, IN RECOMMENDING TAKING SOME PROFITS
WITH ELECTION YEAR STIMULUS CREATING INFLATIONARY PROBLEMS, THOUGH STILL IN
BEAR MARKET THE REAL DECLINE AND REAL RECESSION (WE’RE ALREADY IN RECESSION) TO
COME POST ELECTION/2009 AND THE INTERMEDIATE TERM IS VERY SCARY. ONE R.E.
ANALYST SAYS ONE THIRD OF EXISTING HOME SALES WERE FORECLOSURES WITH OVERSUPPLY
OF PROPERTIES WHICH WILL TAKE A LONG TIME TO WORK OUT WHILE ANOTHER r.e.
ANALYST SAYS YEARS TO WORK OUT WITH ONLY LIMITED IMPROVEMENT LATE 2009. 3-20-08 FULL
MOON WITH OBVIOUS EFFECT ON LUNATIC WALL STREET FRAUDS. SMART MONEY
WOULD SELL INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET/SHORT-COVERING RALLY (TAKE PROFITS)
WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T AND EXCEEDINGLY BAD ECONOMIC NEWS VIZ.,
UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS UP MUCH MORE THAN EXPECTED 22,000 TO HIGH 378,000, CREDIT
SWISSE TO REVISE PREVIOUS YEARS PROFITS DOWN ON FURTHER WRITEDOWNS,
PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN,
AND LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS DOWN FOR FIFTH MONTH IN A ROW WHICH HAS
ALWAYS SIGNALED/INDICATED/PRECEDED ECONOMIC DOWNTURN/CONTRACTION/RECESSION. ONE
SOMEWHAT SENILE ANALYST WELCOMED THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF FAKE/FIAT/PRINTED MONEY
SAYING THE FINANCIALS WHICH HAVE LAGGED THE MARKET BY 20% WILL BE
HELPED/INFLATED OUT OF THEIR DOLDRUMS (HYPERINFLATIONARY) BY SAME WHICH HE
LIKES BECAUSE HE’S HEAVILY CONCENTRATED IN FINANCIALS (GREAT CALL) AND THAT THE
MONEY HASN’T SHOWN UP YET BUT FAILS TO REALIZE THE U.S. HAS NEVER BEEN IN SUCH
DIRE CIRCUMSTANCES ECONOMICALLY, FINANCIALLY, AND GEOPOLITICALLY AS NOW. A MORE
RATIONAL VIEW BY ECONOMIST DR. IRVING KELLNER SAID STIMULUS THUS FAR TREATS
SYMPTOMS WITH MERE BANDAIDS WHICH FAIL TO ADDRESS/CURE THE
PROBLEM/CAUSE/DISEASE AND IS RATHER SIMPLISTIC TO A FAULT IN FOCUSING SOLELY ON
HOUSING/REAL ESTATE VALUES ALTHOUGH CORRECTLY STATES THAT EASIER MONEY WILL NOT
ENHANCE THE VALUE OF MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES WHICH REMAIN INDETERMINANT,
DOWN, OR GOING DOWN AND ADVOCATES DEPRESSION ERA APPROACH SINCE HE CORRECTLY
STATES ECONOMY HAS ALREADY (DECEMBER,
2007 OR JANUARY, 2008) ENTERED THE WORST RECESSION OF THE POST-WAR ERA (DESPITE
ELECTION YEAR SPIN). ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS THIS IS A SHORT-COVERING RALLY AND AN
OPPORTUNITY TO SELL/TAKE PROFITS (i TOTALLY AGREE), THAT THE FED DESPERATION
MOVES INCLUDING PRINTING DOLLARS LIKE MAD
HAVE LED TO A DEBASEMENT OF THE U.S. CURRENCY AND THAT THE DOLLAR WILL
CONTINUE TO GO LOWER, THAT TRILLIONS HAVE BEEN BORROWED BUT THAT THEY WILL BE
UNSUCCESSFUL IN REINFLATING THE BUBBLE, THAT THE FINANCIAL CRISIS IS NO WHERE
NEAR BEING OVER WITH MUCH MORE CARNAGE TO COME, AND RECOMMENDS BEING TOTALLY
OUT OF THE DOLLAR INCLUDING DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES AND INTO OTHER
FOREIGN CURRENCIES/SECURITIES. 3-19-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO
REALITY. I WARNED AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA
BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I
WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL
INTO STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL). morgan stanley earnings down 40% but better
than expected…..riiiiight…..on computerized bond/stock trading commissions.
merrill lynch says more loan losses. one analyst says not much optimism
regarding fed moves, deepening fears about economy, wall street stuck with a
lot of stuff (ie., junk bonds, junk securities, junk derivatives, subprime
mortgages, etc.) which can’t be sold except at firesale prices, avoid equities
particularly small/midcaps, raise cash (taking profits/selling), looking for
confirmation, entered recession in february but with inflation a very tough
scenario. an oil analyst says commodity bubble bursting with profit-taking/path
of least resistance but still record diesel at $4.21, record home heating oil
$3.80 so wait and see. another analyst says emerging markets attractive
relative to developed citing p/e multiple comparison but no save haven and
points to further weakness in dollar relative to other currencies. metals
analyst says rate cut less than expected and etfs (and computerized trading
thereof) has propped demand. 3-18-08 Suckers’
bear market irrationally exuberant bubble rally on fed fear and trembling panic
move TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION
TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING. I WARNED
AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I
WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST
INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO
STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL). WHOLESALE/PRODUCER
PRICES UP MORE THAN EXPECTED .3% WITH CORE RATE UP .5%. HOUSING STARTS DOWN 36%
TO LOWEST LEVEL IN 17 YEARS. SHARPLY (MORE THAN 50%) LOWER EARNINGS AT GOLDMAN AND
LEHMAN RALLIES THEIR STOCKS WITH FAMILIAR MANTRA ‘NOT AS BAD AS
EXPECTED’…..RIIIIIGHT! DOLLAR DOWN AGAINST MOST CURRENCIES ON .75% PANIC CUT IN
FED FUNDS RATE TO 2.25%. ONE ANALYST POINTS TO STRENGTH BY SECTOR, VIZ.,
FINANCIALS +8% (FOCUS OF THE BAILOUT), SMALL CAPS +5%, EMERGING MARKETS +5%,
AND SAYS DOLLAR WILL BE BOTTOMING. AN OIL ANALYST SAYS OIL TO GO HIGHER WITH
INFLUX OF SPECULATIVE NEW MONEY FROM RATE CUT. FORMER FED GOVERNOR GRAMLEY SAY
WE’RE IN SERIOUS ECONOMIC CRISIS, IN RECESSION WITH ECONOMIC WEAKNESS
SUFFICIENT TO MUTE DEMAND/SHARPER PRICE INCREASES, AND COMPARES ECONOMY TO
CANCER PATIENT UNDERGOING NECESSARY CHEMOTHERAPY…..RIIIIIGHT….., FED HAS USED
EMERGENCY POWERS NOT USED SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION BUT CAN’T RELY SOLELY ON
THE FED. ANOTHER ANALYST TALKS IN TERMS OF TRADING ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS
(FACT-THERE ARE HISTORICALLY VERY FEW SUCCESSFUL TRADERS), BELIEVES FED WENT
TOO FAR WITH RATE CUT AND SEES SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM WITH INFLATION, THUMBS UP
FOR METALS/OIL AND LARGE CAP TECH WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS, BUT FURTHER CAUTIONS
OWING TO NEGATIVE REAL INTEREST RATES (RATES LESS THAN INFLATION, RISK,
ECONOMIC FACTORS/PREMIUMS). FINALLY, THINGS ARE SO HUNKY DORY THAT AS REPORTED
BY CONTINENTAL COIN AND JEWELRY PEOPLE ARE PULLING THEIR TEETH, EXTRACTING AND
SELLING THE GOLD. LOVELY! 3-17-08 LUNATIC/FRAUDS
200+ point computerized BUY PROGRAM suckers’ bear market/short-covering rally
to the upside based upon nothing whatsoever that hasn’t already been discounted
(ie., more rate cuts by fed in panic mode, etc.). I WARNED AGAINST THE
DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF
THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN
DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO STRENGTH/TAKE
PROFITS/SELL). INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FELL A GREATER THAN EXPECTED ONE-HALF OF
1%. ONE ANALYST CITES NEW LOWS FOR DOLLAR AND SUBSTANTIAL MOVE BY FED ALREADY
DISCOUNTED (.75%). ANOTHER ANALYST CITES WEAKER DOLLAR AND SLOWER ECONOMY
IMPACTING DEMAND (IE., FOR GOODS, ETC., AND HENCE, COMMODITY PRICES, HENCE
LOWER OIL PRICE THIS DAY), CITES THIS DAYS SHORT-COVERING RALLY AND
RECOMEMMENDS MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS (POSITIVE CURRENCY
TRANSLATION) AND OVERSEAS NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES (UTILITIES, ETC.).
YET aNOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST CITES BUSINESS MODELS COMPARABLE TO BEAR STEARNS
IN FINANCIAL SECTOR(PROBLEMS WITH HEDGE FUNDS/INVESTMENT BANKS) WHICH HAS
PROVEN INABILITY TO MANAGE THEIR OWN AFFAIRS SAYING DEREGULATION A DISASTER AND
REREGULATION A CURE, NO END TO FALL IN DOLLAR AS US BECOMES WORLD’S BEGGAR, AND
RECOMMENDS NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES (IE., EURO, SWISS FRANC, ETC., AND
EMERGING FAR EAST MARKETS). aNOTHER MORE CALIFORNIA/SENILE, ANALYST/BROKER WHO
LIKE OTHERS HAVE LOST SUBSTANTIAL MONIES FOR CLIENTS CITES LACK OF OF
TRANSPARENCY AS VALUE OF HIS BUYS AND HOLDS CONTINUES TO FALL WITH DOLLAR BUT
TALKS SOME SPECULATIVE BUYS AND CASH. A FINANCIAL TIMES EDITOR SAYS NO BOTTOM
YET, THAT BY HISTORICAL STANDARDS THE SCENARIO IS QUITE BAD FOR THE US, THAT
BEAR STEARNS WAS NOT ALONE AMONG US FIRMS IN THEIR PROBLEMS, THAT THE MARKET IS
EXPECTING 1% PANIC CUT BY FED, AND THAT THE US ECONOMY IS IN DEEP TROUBLE. 3-14-08 early surge based
on false benign inflation report (showing no change in retail inflation) from
the government gives way to reality that they can’t cover up/lie about (despite
intra-day suckers rally) when there is a run on large wall street investment
bank bear stearns (first such since the great depression) which cites liquidity
crisis as ny fed and jp morgan intervene with 28 day loan as bear is holding
high risk (worthless) assets which are illiquid (thinly traded/can’t be sold)
as reserves (they are not alone in this regard among the frauds on wallstreet,
etc., and only 2 days ago bear said balance sheet stable), all time lows for
the dollar, wsj reports majority of economists think we’re in recession,
michigan (non-washington non-fed gov’t report) sentiment index at new 16 year
low. One ANALYST SAYS DOLLAR WEAKNESS/LOWER YIELDS/ECONOMIC CONCERNS WILL
CONTINUE DOWNWARD TREND, INFLATION REPORT SURPRISE/FOOLISH AND HIGHER INFLATION
NUMBER FOR MARCH, CRESCENDO OF BAD NEWS IN COMING WEEK AND LOOK FOR NEW
LOWS/BOTTOM(?). OIL ANALYST CITES WEAK DOLLAR/EASY MONEY FLOWS AND SAYS LOOK FOR
OIL AT $120-$125. ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS ITS TOO LATE FOR FED TO TURN THIS
WRITEDOWN/SUBPRIME/ECONOMIC DOWNTURN AROUND WITH BEAR ANOTHER $35-$70 BILLION
BAD AND WHAT AFTER 28 DAY LOAN-EXPECT TAKEOVER/NO MORE BEAR STEARNS. 3-13-08 SMART MONEY WOULD SELL INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY (TAKE
PROFITS) WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T ALONE (NOTHING WHATSOEVER) AS STANDARD
AND POORS ANALYST SAYS THE END OF WRITEDOWNS MIGHT (BUT NOT QUITE) BE IN
SIGHT (WHICH IS LIKE THAT BROKER WHO
SELLS STOCKS FOR A LIVING SAYING HE’S TRYING TO KEEP CLIENTS IN STOCKS BECAUSE
AT SOME POINT THEY’LL GO UP)…RIIIIIGHT….. WHICH IS MEANINGLESS COMING FROM
STANDARD AND POORS WHICH SHOULD BE ACCOUNTABLE/LIABLE (FOR THIS FRAUD) ALONG
WITH THE FRAUDS ON WALL STREET, ETC., FOR THE TRIPLE A RATED SECURITIES ON THE
BOOKS WHICH EVERYONE KNOWS ARE IN FACT NOT TRIPLE A (WORTHLESS JUNK BONDS,
ASSETS, ETC.) SPURRING 200+ POINT SWING TO THE UPSIDE. VAST MAJORITY OF
ECONOMISTS NOW SAY WE’RE IN RECESSION (EVEN DESPITE ELECTION YEAR GIMMICKS-AS GOOD
AS GETS). RETAIL SALES DOWN MORE THAN EXPECTED .6%, FORECLOSURES UP 60% YEAR
OVER YEAR, DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY. ONE ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED
UNEMPLOYMENT/EMPLOYMENT WEAKNESS, PREMATURE TO SAY AS DID S&P THAT WE’RE
NEAR END OF WRITEDOWNS, MAJORITY OF ECONOMISTS NOW SAY WE’RE IN RECESSION,
HOUSING DOWNTURN MUCH FURTHER TO GO, VERY DEFENSIVE AS STOCKS CONTINUE TO HIT
NEW LOWS IN LARGE NUMBERS, WORST OF HOUSING CRISIS AHEAD, AND THIS IS A BEAR
MARKET IN A RECESSION ECONOMY. ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS U.S. CURRENT
ACCOUNT DEFICITS, LACK OF TRUST IN U.S. FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND TRIPLE A
RATINGS (BONDS, ETC., WHICH EVERYONE KNOWS ARE NOT), BANKS’ NEED FOR
RECAPITALIZATION, LOW SAVINGS (IE., CONSUMERS USING IE., GIFT CARDS FOR
GROCERIES, ETC.), FED LOSING CREDIBILITY BY FLIP-FLOPS/WRONG MOVES, AND SEES
ONLY SHORT-COVERING RALLIES AT BEST. VENEZUELA SHIFT TO PAYMENT IN EUROS FOR
OIL OUT OF DOLLARS. YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST SAYS WITH MONEY SUPPLY INCREASING AT
EXORBITANT 27% PER ANNUM, CITING ECONOMIST FRIEDMAN SAYS HYPER-INFLATIONARY
(CONTRARY TO LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS ECONOMISTS WHO THIS DAY SEE LAND OF FRUITS
AND NUTS REAL ESTATE DOWN 17.6%, SALES DOWN 40-45%, AND MEDIAN HOME PRICES DOWN
$100,000, AND BUDGET DEFICITS ACROSS THE BOARD). 3-12-08 VERY MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY,
DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY ON PANICKY FED KNEE JERK FUNNY MONEY ACTION, ONE
ANALYST/BROKER WHO SELLS STOCKS FOR A LIVING SAYS HE’S TRYING TO KEEP CLIENTS
IN STOCKS BECAUSE AT SOME POINT THEY’LL GO UP…..RIIIIIGHT…..REFERENCES THAT THIS
IS WORST R.E. DOWNTURN IN 100 YEARS AND NO BOTTOM YET IN R.E. AND WSJ SAYS
WORSE TO COME IN BAD PAPER (WRITEDOWNS, ETC.), AN OIL ANALYST SAYS RECORD HIGH
OIL PRICES ARE HEDGE AGAINST FALLING DOLLAR WITH A LOT OF DOLLARS RELATIVE TO
GOODS (AS IE., OIL, OTHER COMMODITIES, ETC.-HYPERINFLATION) AND IF YOU HOLD
DOLLARS/DOLLAR DENOMINATED ASSETS/SECURITIES YOU LOSE VALUE AND SEES $4.00 GAS
NATIONWIDE WITH RECORD DIESEL, WHILE ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS THAT SEEING FED GO
FROM LENDER OF LAST RESORT TO LENDER (PRINTER) OF FIRST RESORT IS
WORRISOME/TROUBLESOME. 3-11-08 Suckers’ bear
market irrationally exuberant new EPHEMERAL bubble rally on fed fear and trembling panic move TO ADD $200 BILLION IN WORLDWIDE LIQUIDITY
BY TEMPORARILY REPLACING (28 DAYS) ONE TYPE OF FUNNY-MONEY (WORTHLESS SUBPRIME
COLLATERALIZED DEBT) WITH ANOTHER LONGER TERM WORTHLESS FUNNY-MONEY (U.S. DEBT
WHICH CAN’T BE PAID BACK) WHICH IS A GREAT B.S. TALKING POINT BUT JUST A DROP
IN THE BUCKET CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UNDISCLOSED WRITEDOWNS/WORTHLESS
PAPER BEING HELD(AND, CURING A BUBBLE WITH A NEW BUBBLE-I DON'T THINK SO), ONE
ANALYST POINTS TO THE HYPERINFLATIONARY EFFECTS OF TOO MUCH LIQUIDITY CHASING
TOO FEW GOODS AND MORE BAD NEWS TO COME IN TECH SECTOR AND EARNINGS ALONG WITH
MORE WRITEOFFS/WRITEDOWNS WITH WORSE TO COME/NO BOTTOM YET AND HE REMAINS A
BEAR, LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS ECONOMIST SAYS BAD BUT NOT TECHNICALLY RECESSION
BASED ON GOVERNMENT ELECTION-YEAR DATA (ONLY NUTS AND NUTS FROM THE LAND OF
FRUITS AND NUTS BELIEVE SAME) WHILE TWO OTHER ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH
STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS/HIGH INFLATION/LOWER DOLLAR AS FOREIGNERS/INVESTORS GET OUT
OF WORTHLESS DOLLAR WITH BIG TROUBLE FOR U.S. POST-ELECTION AS REALITY SETS IN,
TRADE GAP WIDENED, AND SMART MONEY WOULD SELL THIS RALLY/TAKE PROFITS. 3-10-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY,
NEW BANK DOWNGRADES, MORGAN SLASHES EARNINGS ESTIMATES FOR S&P AND SAYS
ALREADY IN RECESSION, EVEN MORE ECONOMISTS NOW SAY THE OBVIOUS/RECESSION, RUMOR
THAT BEAR STERNS WITH SUBSTANTIAL LIQUIDITY ISSUES IS GOING UNDER, DOLLAR DOWN,
EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT ON CITIBANK AND BANKOFAMERICA, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS (HYPERINFLATIONARY) HIGH ENERGY AND FOOD PRICES (CONVENIENTLY LEFT OUT OF
THE FED’S “TOUTED” CORE RATE) ARE SQUEEZING THE CONSUMER (AND HENCE,
CONSUMPTION/65% OF GDP) AND THAT COMMODITIES A BUBBLE AND MULTINATIONALS WITH
OVERSEAS EARNINGS/POSITVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO WEAKER DOLLAR PREFERRED, AN
OIL ANALYST SAYS $200 OIL POSSIBLE (REITERATING GOLDMAN) WITH CONTINUED
WEAKENING OF DOLLAR, ANOTHER ANALYST/JOURNALIST SAYS SELL DOLLAR DENOMINATED
STOCKS/SECURITIES/ASSETS WHICH HAVE MUCH FURTHER TO FALL AND REITERATES AS DID
BARRON’S THAT MORTGAGE INSURERS HAVE OVER $5 TRILLION IN DEBT/EXPOSURE AND THAT
MANY OF THE NATIONS BANKS ARE ALREADY INSOLVENT SO GET OUT OF THE DOLLAR AND
U.S. STOCKS. 3-7-08 BAD
EMPLOYMENT/JOBS DATA across ALL SECTORS AS 63,000 JOBS LOST WITH DOWNWARD
REVISIONS TO DECEMBER AND JANUARY (ACTUALLY LOST 20,000) JOBS NUMBERS, ONE
ANALYST SAYS WE’RE IN A RECESSION WHILE MORE ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH ONE
STATING THAT YOU ALMOST NEVER SEE BACK-TO-BACK MONTHLY DECLINE IN EMPLOYMENT
WITHOUT RECESSION AS NOW, DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOWS, CONSUMERS INCREASED
BORROWING TO STAY AFLOAT, WASHINGTON MUTUAL FURTHER DOWNGRADES, SUPPORT LEVELS
BROKEN TO THE DOWNSIDE, sentiment- 85% believe things will get worse. 3-6-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY
TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS
FLOWING. 23% INCREASE IN FORECLOSURES IN
FOURTH QUARTER NEW RECORD HIGH, DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOWS, 10% OF HOMES WITH 0
OR NEGATIVE EQUITY, MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION SAYS HOME FORECLOSURES AT
ALL-TIME HIGH AND GOING HIGHER, ONE R.E. ANALYST SAYS ROUGH YEAR AHEAD WITH
FORECLOSURES AND DEFAULTS UP, ONE ANALYST SAYS MARKET WILL TEST NEW
LOWS/SUPPORT LEVELS WITH FLIGHT TO “QUALITY”/TREASURIES, LENDER THORNBURG
DEFAULTS AND ALONG WITH WASHINGTON MUTUAL IS DOWNGRADED, CONTINUING CLAIMS FOR
UNEMPLOYMENT AT HIGH LEVELS MEANS COMPANIES SHRINKING, IGNORE KNEE-JERK ELECTION
YEAR GOVERNMENT HUNKY DORY FAKE REPORTS. 3-5-08 OIL INVENTORIES LESS THAN EXPECTED, FED
BEIGE BOOK CITES ECONOMIC WEAKNESS PARTICULARLY SINCE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR,
LABOR COSTS ROSE, RISING PRICE PRESSURES/STAGFLATION, RECESSION/BEAR MARKET,
ONE ANALYST SAYS TOUGH FIRST HALF RECOMMENDS MULTINATIONALS WITH 50% OVERSEAS
EARNINGS (FAVORABLE CURRENCY TRANSLATION) AND CONSUMER STAPLES/HEALTH
RELATED/DEFENSIVE STOCKS, AMBAC TO FLOAT STOCK TO SHORE UP BALANCE SHEET TO
TUNE OF $1.5 BILLION/DILUTION AND SHARES
FALL $2 TO $8.70, OIL ANALYST CITES DECLINE IN OIL INVENTORIES/DIESEL/JET FUEL
AND WEAK DOLLAR AND TOP $108-$110 BUT $120-$130 IF VENEZUELA/COLUMBIA CONFLICT
AND MORE RECORD HIGH GAS PRICES TO COME, ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS
CONTINUED DECLINE IN REAL ESTATE/HOUSING WITH STARTS DOWN 15-20-40% ON WELL
DESERVED PESSIMISM/CREDIT CRUNCH. 3-4-08 Suckers’ bear
market rally into the close based on b**l s**t alone, viz., rumor/speculation
about yet another bailout for wall street/ambac/bond insurers and over 200
point swing to the upside based on nothing whatsoever, one economist/analyst
notes this is the deepest housing decline since great depression, bernanke says
another spike in foreclosures ahead and proposes reduction of principal amounts
in existing loans (sounds like a plan…..riiiiight!), ken shreve finance editor
investors business daily says bear market 6-9 months/ don’t try to catch a
falling knife as institutions still selling/keep money safe in 3% money market
for time being, one oil analyst says oil higher before lower as expected rate
cut will further weaken dollar and drive up oil/commodities prices and problems
in consumer debt in addition to mortgages and nobody wants to hold dollars, 3-3-08 Suckers’ bear
market rally into the close, yes we are in a recession from someone who unlike
the frauds on wall street has read security analysis by graham, dodd, and
cottle and understands it (warren buffet), all news
negative, ie., ism manufacturing index down to 48.3 (contraction), car sales
down at gm (-12%) and ford (-7%), construction spending down most in 14 years,
oil analysts point to the new highs while economist/analyst says dollar has
fallen through all support levels meaning more bottoms to come, INFLATION
OUTPACING CONSUMER SPENDING (EVEN WITH SPENDING NUMBER HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
WHICH PROBABLY MEANS REALITY WAS NEGATIVE), CONSUMER CONFIDENCE/SENTIMENT DOWN
SHARPLY, CHICAGO MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN INDICATING CONTRACTION, $5.29 BILLION
LOSS FOR AIG ON WRITEOFFS, INTRA DAY HIGH FOR OIL OVER $103, INFLATION/WEAK
DOLLAR/ECONOMIC WEAKNESS=STAGFLATION, FOURTH MONTHLY DECLINE IN A ROW FOR STOCK
MARKET, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST IF NOT THEN ALMOST IN RECESSION WITH WORSE
INFLATION NEWS AND INFLATION ADJUSTED INCOME/SPENDING FLAT, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION AND CITES NEGATIVE SAVINGS RATE AND FURTHER
ECONOMIC WEAKNESS, ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED ECONOMIC WEAKNESS WITH FURTHER DOLLAR
DECLINE SO BULLISH ON METALS AND BEARISH ON STOCKS, AND YET ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS INFLATION/RECESSION BUT NOT DEPRESSION…..RIIIIIGHT, GDP
GROWTH REPORTED MUCH LESS THAN EXPECTED (BUT CLOSER TO REALITY) AT
MINISCULE .6%, UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS JUMP
19,000 TO 373,000 AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE POST KATRINA, BERNANKE SAYS CONSUMER
WORSE OFF THAN JUST AFTER 911(?) AND THAT SOME BANKS COULD (WILL) FAIL AND THAT
STAGFLATION WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS THE 70’S, FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC SHOW
MASSIVE LOSSES, ONE ANALYST 50 YEARS IN THE BUSINESS SEES RECESSION AND SAYS
FINANCIALS HAVE BECOME IMPENETRABLE IN TERMS OF ANALYSIS/LOSSES, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS WE’RE NOWHERE NEAR IMPROVEMENT IN R.E./HOUSING MARKET,
YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION WITH HIGHER INFLATION LOWER GROWTH
(STAGFLATION) AND THAT FED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN WRONG AND ONLY RECESSION TO
BRING DOWN INFLATION, new record LOW
FOR DOLLAR AGAINST EURO AND SWISS FRANC (AND EVEN WORTH LESS THAN THE LOWLY
CANADIAN LOONEY, ETC.) WHICH ALONG WITH DEFICIT SPENDING IS HYPERINFLATIONARY
AS OIL SEES NEW INTRADAY HIGH OF $102.64, SALES/ORDERS OF DURABLE GOODS DOWN MORE
THAN EXPECTED 5.3%, BERNANKE’S NEGATIVE COMMENTS ON GREENSPAN RECESSION
PROMISES RATE CUTS FOR NEW BUBBLE WHICH RALLIES STOCKS, ONE ANALYST SAYS BANKS
AS THEIR OWN INSURERS INCREASES RISK, ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DEFICIT
SPENDING INCREASES INFLATIONARY PROBLEMS/RISK, FORECLOSURES/BANK REPO’S UP 90%
YEAR OVER YEAR, REGULATORS PREDICT OVER 100 BANK FAILURES, FORECLOSURES UP 57%
IN JANUARY, WHOLESALE INFLATION UP MUCH HIGHER THAN EXPECTED 7.5% (CORE RATE
4+%), 9% DROP IN HOME VALUES/PRICES, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOWN TO 17 YEAR LOW,
ELECTION YEAR/PROTECT INCOMPETENT INCUMBENT GOV’T PRINTING WORTHLESS DOLLARS
LIKE MAD WITH EXCESS LIQUIDITY CHASING TOO FEW GOODS (IE., FOOD UP 6%, ETC.)
WHICH IS HYPER-INFLATIONARY, ECONOMIST/ANALYST DR. KELLNER SAYS EASIER
MONEY/FISCAL PACKAGE WON’T REFLATE HOUSING MARKET (RECESSION), ANOTHER ANALYST
SAYS IN BEAR MARKET/RECESSION RECOMMENDS DEFENSIVE/PREFERRED STOCKS/BONDS/CASH,
DR. SHILLER- CASE-SHILLER INDEX- HOME VALUES CONTINUED DECLINE AND IN OR ABOUT
TO ENTER RECESSION (that’s already here), Stiglitz
Blames Greenspan For Recession, IBM ON $15 BILLION BUYBACK AND JAWBONING
AND SIGNIFICANT OVERSEAS SALES (AND POSITIVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO THE
WORTHLESS DOLLAR) RALLIES MARKET (WHAT BULL S**T), SHARPLY LOWER AND MORE WORTHLESS DOLLAR/HIGH OIL PRICE RALLY
CREATES YET ANOTHER B.S. SWING OF OVER 200 POINTS TO THE UPSIDE, FOOD PRICES UP
6% ON ETHANOL CROWD-OUT, HOME SALES
DOWN 5.5% / MEDIAN SALES PRICE DOWN 4.6%, ONE R.E. EXPERT SAYS WITH SALES
FALLING AND FORECLOSURES RISING WORSE YET TO COME, LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
FELL FOR FOURTH MONTH IN A ROW (-.1%), PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX
UNEXPECTEDLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER (The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index fell
to a -24, indicating a sharp contraction in the region's manufacturing
activity. Economists had anticipated a reading of -10, a less pronounced
contraction. Last month the reading came in at -20.9.), ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS
SIGNIFICANT INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT-STAGFLATION-AHEAD ALONG WITH CONTINUED
DEFLATION OF HOUSING BUBBLE WITH NATIONWIDE AVERAGE PRICE DECLINE OF 8-10% AND
ANOTHER DECLINE OF 15-20% TO COME. SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE
COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING(3-31-08) (DOW +46, NASDAQ +17, S&P +7) [CLOSE- OIL $101.65/ GOLD $922 /
SILVER $17.31 / PLATINUM $2,006 / DOLLAR= .63 EURO, 99 YEN, .503 POUND
STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.41%]. I
WARNED AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR
POWERS, I WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN
AGAINST INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO STRENGTH/TAKE
PROFITS/SELL). GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL INTO THIS
SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY (TAKE PROFITS).
REALITY:
THIS IS A BEAR MARKET IN A SECULAR BEAR MARKET IN A RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A
SECULAR (AND QUITE PERMANENT-THEY’VE MADE ALL THE WRONG CHOICES) ECONOMIC
DOWNTREND IN THE U.S. ONE ANALYST/REPORTER/ JOURNALIST FROM INSIDE SOURCES PEGS THE
SUB-PRIME DOLLAR VALUE OF THE SHILLED WORTHLESS PAPER AT $516 TRILLION (EVEN A
PERCENTAGE OF SAME RENDERS THE PROBLEM UNFIXABLE-HENCE, CULPABLE PARTIES MUST
BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE AND DISGORGE THEIR ILL-GOTTEN GAINS FROM, IE.,
COMMISSIONING WORTHLESS PAPER, TAKING A POINT HERE OR THERE AND FRAUDULENTLY
PASSING SAME ON, AD INFINITUM, ETC.). Time to put the wall street among other
corporate frauds in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their
ill-gotten gains. [Please note: I seldom name analysts/reporters/journalists
bearing not so glad tidings for fear they’ll be crucified by the frauds on wall
street]. (3-28-08) (DOW -86, NASDAQ -20, S&P –10.5) [CLOSE-
OIL $105.62/ GOLD $930.60 / SILVER $17.94 / PLATINUM $2,020 / DOLLAR= .63 EURO,
98 YEN, .4979 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE
YIELD 3.44%]. GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL (TAKE PROFITS) AS THE WALL
STREET SCAM IS UNEARTHED BY REVELATION THAT OF 9 INVESTMENT VEHICLES S&P
(MAJORITY OF 401K HOLDINGS, ETC.) WAS WORST PERFORMER (1% OR LESS AND IF YOU
FACTOR IN DECLINING DOLLAR, NEGATIVE RELATIVE TO NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED
ALTERNATIVES OVER DECADE). 5 REASONS WHY THE FED HAS FAILED. freddie mac economist says housing prices
might continue to fall through 2010 as house prices fall 29%, orders for new
homes down 75%, and housing starts fall 9% to 50 year low. kb homes registers
$268 million loss and offers downbeat outlook on housing crisis while j.c.
penny on retail end offers equally bad outlook and worse than expected
quarterly results to come. consumer spending weakest in 17 months. fake core
inflation report is also meaningless (excludes food and energy) at tepid 2%.
consumer sentiment index at lowest since 1992, a 16 year low. frenzy over
j.p.morgan memo on how to beef up income on mortgage applications. s&p
economist says we’re in a recession and points to a very bumpy year ahead. one
analyst says troubled market/economy to continue and shorts stocks, is long on
metals, points to failed structured finance market, failed fed and globally
recognized folly of helicopter ben (bernanke), property continue down, dollar
continue downward slide, and bubble in emerging markets. one reporter examining
financial newsletters says vast majority bleak, pessimistic in their
outlook/forecasts. socal congressman says us hole getting bigger, deeper, and
darker and regarding the fed, too little too late, kind of like his
caleefornia. yet another analyst says we’re in a nationwide recession (he
previously had called california’s recession but stopped short of nationwide),
points to job losses, higher oil/gas prices, rising debt burdens and worse on
wall street than main street, not optimistic on real estate as foreclosures and
supply up with prices declining with early 2009 at best the trough, and that
there are other financial institutions in similar situation to that of bear
stearns. 3-27-08 GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL (TAKE PROFITS) AS THE WALL STREET SCAM
IS UNEARTHED BY REVELATION THAT OF 9 INVESTMENT VEHICLES S&P (MAJORITY OF
401K HOLDINGS, ETC.) WAS WORST PERFORMER (1% OR LESS AND IF YOU FACTOR IN
DECLINING DOLLAR, NEGATIVE RELATIVE TO NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED ALTERNATIVES OVER
DECADE). FOURTH QUARTER ECONOMIC GROWTH
REVISED UPWARD TO ANEMIC .6% (RIIIIIGHT…..SO THEY WON’T HAVE TO USE THE R FOR
REALITY WORD RECESSION). OIL UP ON SUPPLY CONCERNS AND DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY. UNEMPLOYMENT
CLAIMS AT HIGH 366,000 AND ORACLE DISAPPOINTS ON SALES AS MERRILL IS
DOWNGRADED. ONE ANALYST SAYS LEHMAN (-9%) BEARS EERIE SIMILARITIES TO BEAR
STEARNS, CITES SUBSTANTIAL NUMBER OF PUTS AND RUN ON BANKS WHICH WILL HELP
FOREIGN BANKS (IE., SWISS, ETC.), ALSO CAUTIONS ON DRUG SECTOR/SIDE EFFECTS.
OIL ANALYST EMPHASIZES $7 RUN IN TWO DAYS, BOMBING OF OIL SUPPLY LINE IN IRAQ,
WEAKER DOLLAR, LIQUIDITY CRISIS, IRAQ VIOLENCE, LOWER REFINERY RUNS AND SAYS
OIL/GAS PRICES HIGHER BEFORE LOWER. ONE ECONOMIST SAYS CREDIT CRISIS AND POINTS
TO PURCHASING POWER FAILURE AS BORROWED FUNDS (IE., HOME EQUITY, ETC.) ARE
DEPLETED AND WAGES LOWER, WHILE ANOTHER ECONOMIST WHO HAS ALREADY CALLED
RECESSION SEES MORE REGULATION FOR TROUBLED
INVESTMENT BANKS AS DISTINGUISHED FROM FDIC INSURED COMMERCIAL BANKS AND
SAYS CREDIT CRUNCH WILL CONTINUE. AIRLINE COMMENTATOR/ANALYST CITES OLDER
PLANES FOR PUBLICIZED PROBLEMS, SURCHARGES/HIGHER FUEL COSTS FOR HIGHER PRICES.
3-26-08 GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL (TAKE
PROFITS) IN WHAT REMAINS OF THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY AS THE WALL STREET
SCAM UNEARTHED BY REVELATION THAT OF 9 INVESTMENT VEHICLES S&P (MAJORITY OF
401K HOLDINGS, ETC.) WAS WORST PERFORMER (1% OR LESS AND IF YOU FACTOR IN
DECLINING DOLLAR, NEGATIVE RELATIVE TO NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED ALTERNATIVES OVER
DECADE). OIL UP ON SUPPLY CONCERNS AND DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY. BANKING
SECTOR DOWNGRADED CITING MORE WRITE-DOWNS AND –84% EARNINGS (CITI, ETC.).
FACTORY ORDERS/DURABLES DOWN MORE THAN EXPECTED 1.75% AND NEW HOME SALES DOWN
1.8% ALONG WITH PRICE DECLINES (INCLUDING MEDIAN PRICE DECLINE). WSJ ARTICLE
RAISES SPECTER OF FED BANKRUPTCY AND PUBLIC BAILOUT. ONE ANALYST CITES CITIBANK
DIFFICULTIES, LBO TROUBLES (IE., CLEAR CHANNEL, ETC.), FED HOLDING JUNK PAPER,
AND RECOMMENDS DEFENSIVE (IE., CONSUMER STAPLES, ETC.) POSTURE INCLUDING
MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS (FAVORABLE CURRENCY TRANSLATION). OIL
ANALYST SAYS RECORD OIL/ GAS PRICES (GAS UP ANOTHER 5-10 CENTS) AND CITES
DECLINE IN REFINERY RUN, CONFLICT IN IRAQ, AND EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK’S FIGHT
AGAINST INFLATION/LOWER DOLLAR AND SAYS NATURAL GAS AN INTERESTING PLAY. ONE
REPORTER CITES DROP IN GAS SUPPLIES AND FINANCIAL SECTOR WRITEDOWNS. R.E.
ANALYST POINTS TO SO. CAL. 400% INCREASE IN FORECLOSURES AND SAYS NO
IMPROVEMENT UNTIL AT LEAST LATE 2008/EARLY 2009. CURRENCY EXPERT SAYS FINANCIAL
INSTITUTIONS WILL SURVIVE BUT WON’T BE LENDING, DOLLAR RISK TO THE DOWNSIDE,
FED HOLDING BAD RESERVES, HOUSING MARKET TO CONTINUE DECLINE, AND FAVORS EURO. 3-25-08 GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL (TAKE
PROFITS) THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY INTO THE CLOSE WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T AND NOTHING BUT BAD ECONOMIC NEWS AS WALL
STREET FRAUDS ATTEMPT TO WINDOW DRESS
REALISTICALLY DISMAL FIRST QUARTER NUMBERS TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND
COMPUTERIZED PROGRAM TRADE COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING. DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY.
earnings downgrade for merrill lynch/financials and reluctance to take
mark-to-market loss (prompted bear bailout) scuttles(?) clear channel deal.
GOVERNMENT HIRING NEW (FDIC) BANK REGULATORS FOR INCREASING BANK FAILURES. S&P
CASE SHILLER INDEX REGISTERS SHARPEST HOUSING PRICE DECLINE ON RECORD AT
–11.4%, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX DOWN TO 5 YR. LOW OF 65 WHICH IS
SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW EXPECTED 73, AND EXPECTATIONS INDEX AT LOWEST SINCE 1973.
KEN SHREVE OF IBD POINTS TO VOLUME (COMMISSION GENERATING COMPUTERIZED
PROGRAMMED TRADES SIMULATING DEMAND) AS A GOOD SIGN…RIIIIIGHT…CITES SELLING
PRESSURE ON THE WAY UP AND SAYS WAIT AND SEE AS NEW LEADERSHIP
DEVELOPS…RIIIIIGHT (WHICH TRANSLATED MEANS HE DOESN’T KNOW WHERE THIS
IRRATIONALLY EXUBERANT MARKET IS GOING. S&P CASE SHILLER ANALYST/VP SAYS
HOME PRICES IN DECLINE WHICH ACCELERATED IN THE LAST 6-9 MONTHS AND SEES
–20%/TROUGH IN LATE 2008. R.E. ANALYST DOESN’T SEE BOTTOM PARTICULARLY IN SO.
CALIFORNIA (IE., LA, SAN DIEGO, ETC.) (MIAMI, LAS VEGAS, PHOENIX VERY BAD). AN
ECONOMIST SAYS ANOTHER YEAR OF DECLINES SINCE CONSUMER SPENDING/CONFIDENCE HAS
WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY. CALIFORNIA BUREAUCRAT (THAT’S ALL THERE IS) SAYS TOUGH
TIMES AHEAD, POINTS TO UPSIDE DOWN CONDITIONS (MORTGAGE LOANS GREATER THAN
PROPERTY VALUES) AND SAYS HOUSE OF CARDS. ANOTHER ECONOMIST SAYS MORE EROSION
ON THE PRICE SIDE,-20%, AND A WAYS TO GO. R.E. PROF. SAYS SLIDE TO CONTINUE
UNTIL EXCESS SUPPLY IS CLEARED. 3-24-08 GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL
INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET/SHORT-COVERING RALLY (TAKE PROFITS) WHICH IS
BASED UPON B**L S**T AND NO REAL
ECONOMIC NEWS AS WALL STREET FRAUDS IN LAST DITCH EFFORT TO WINDOW DRESS
REALISTICALLY DISMAL FIRST QUARTER NUMBERS TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND
COMPUTERIZED PROGRAM TRADE COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING. THE
ELECTION-YEAR-INDUCED RALLY FAKE NEWS PUSHED BY THE WALL STREET FRAUDS IS A
MEAGER TWO-FOLD; VIZ., EXISTING HOME SALES INCREASED (JAN.-FEB.) 2.9% EXCEEDING
SUBSTANTIALLY ECONOMISTS’ PREDICTIONS AND J.P. MORGAN WILLING TO PAY $10
INSTEAD OF $2 PER SHARE FOR FAILED INVESTMENT BANK BEAR STEARNS. REALITY:
INCREASED SALES DUE TO INCREASED FORECLOSURE SALES; PRICES DOWN 8.2%; MEDIAN
HOME PRICE FELL MOST EVER ON RECORD; INCREASED BEAR MONEY TO PLACATE
SHAREHOLDERS DESPERATE MOVE TO KEEP WORTHLESS SECURITIES FROM BEING DUMPED IN
MARKET WHERE SAME CAN’T BE SOLD AND WHERE SUCH WOULD RESULT IN OTHER SUCH BEING
MARKED TO MARKET (PENNIES ON A DOLLAR). ONE ANALYST SAYS NOTHING FUNDAMENTALLY
HAS CHANGED, DAY TO DAY TRADING ON DAY’S NEWS AND TODAY A HAPPY (NON) NEWS
DAY…RIIIIIGHT…AND RECOMMENDS FOR PROTECTION NON-U.S. ASSETS/SECURITIES, METALS,
AND BIG CAP TECH/MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS (POSITIVE CURRENCY
TRANSLATION). AN ECONOMIST SAYS THE FED’S CONFUSING DEAL PROTECTS ITS OWN MONEY
BY ESSENTIALLY PROVIDING A “BRIDGE LOAN” TO PREVENT THE WORTHLESS SECURITIES
FROM BEING DUMPED WHERE THERE IS NO MARKET FOR SAME CAUSING FURTHER WRITEDOWNS
across THE BOARD ON MARK TO MARKET. ANOTHER ANALYST EMPHASIZES DISFUNCTIONAL
BANKING/CONTINUED WRITEDOWNS/LOSSES/BALANCE SHEET PROBLEMS FOR FINANCIAL
INSTITUTIONS/WE’VE NOT SEEN THE BOTTOM, IN RECOMMENDING TAKING SOME PROFITS
WITH ELECTION YEAR STIMULUS CREATING INFLATIONARY PROBLEMS, THOUGH STILL IN
BEAR MARKET THE REAL DECLINE AND REAL RECESSION (WE’RE ALREADY IN RECESSION) TO
COME POST ELECTION/2009 AND THE INTERMEDIATE TERM IS VERY SCARY. ONE R.E.
ANALYST SAYS ONE THIRD OF EXISTING HOME SALES WERE FORECLOSURES WITH OVERSUPPLY
OF PROPERTIES WHICH WILL TAKE A LONG TIME TO WORK OUT WHILE ANOTHER r.e.
ANALYST SAYS YEARS TO WORK OUT WITH ONLY LIMITED IMPROVEMENT LATE 2009. 3-20-08 FULL
MOON WITH OBVIOUS EFFECT ON LUNATIC WALL STREET FRAUDS. SMART MONEY
WOULD SELL INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET/SHORT-COVERING RALLY (TAKE PROFITS)
WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T AND EXCEEDINGLY BAD ECONOMIC NEWS VIZ.,
UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS UP MUCH MORE THAN EXPECTED 22,000 TO HIGH 378,000, CREDIT
SWISSE TO REVISE PREVIOUS YEARS PROFITS DOWN ON FURTHER WRITEDOWNS,
PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN,
AND LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS DOWN FOR FIFTH MONTH IN A ROW WHICH HAS
ALWAYS SIGNALED/INDICATED/PRECEDED ECONOMIC DOWNTURN/CONTRACTION/RECESSION. ONE
SOMEWHAT SENILE ANALYST WELCOMED THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF FAKE/FIAT/PRINTED MONEY
SAYING THE FINANCIALS WHICH HAVE LAGGED THE MARKET BY 20% WILL BE
HELPED/INFLATED OUT OF THEIR DOLDRUMS (HYPERINFLATIONARY) BY SAME WHICH HE
LIKES BECAUSE HE’S HEAVILY CONCENTRATED IN FINANCIALS (GREAT CALL) AND THAT THE
MONEY HASN’T SHOWN UP YET BUT FAILS TO REALIZE THE U.S. HAS NEVER BEEN IN SUCH
DIRE CIRCUMSTANCES ECONOMICALLY, FINANCIALLY, AND GEOPOLITICALLY AS NOW. A MORE
RATIONAL VIEW BY ECONOMIST DR. IRVING KELLNER SAID STIMULUS THUS FAR TREATS
SYMPTOMS WITH MERE BANDAIDS WHICH FAIL TO ADDRESS/CURE THE
PROBLEM/CAUSE/DISEASE AND IS RATHER SIMPLISTIC TO A FAULT IN FOCUSING SOLELY ON
HOUSING/REAL ESTATE VALUES ALTHOUGH CORRECTLY STATES THAT EASIER MONEY WILL NOT
ENHANCE THE VALUE OF MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES WHICH REMAIN INDETERMINANT,
DOWN, OR GOING DOWN AND ADVOCATES DEPRESSION ERA APPROACH SINCE HE CORRECTLY
STATES ECONOMY HAS ALREADY (DECEMBER,
2007 OR JANUARY, 2008) ENTERED THE WORST RECESSION OF THE POST-WAR ERA (DESPITE
ELECTION YEAR SPIN). ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS THIS IS A SHORT-COVERING RALLY AND AN
OPPORTUNITY TO SELL/TAKE PROFITS (i TOTALLY AGREE), THAT THE FED DESPERATION
MOVES INCLUDING PRINTING DOLLARS LIKE MAD
HAVE LED TO A DEBASEMENT OF THE U.S. CURRENCY AND THAT THE DOLLAR WILL
CONTINUE TO GO LOWER, THAT TRILLIONS HAVE BEEN BORROWED BUT THAT THEY WILL BE
UNSUCCESSFUL IN REINFLATING THE BUBBLE, THAT THE FINANCIAL CRISIS IS NO WHERE
NEAR BEING OVER WITH MUCH MORE CARNAGE TO COME, AND RECOMMENDS BEING TOTALLY
OUT OF THE DOLLAR INCLUDING DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES AND INTO OTHER
FOREIGN CURRENCIES/SECURITIES. 3-19-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO
REALITY. I WARNED AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA
BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I
WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO
STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL). morgan stanley earnings down 40% but better than
expected…..riiiiight…..on computerized bond/stock trading commissions. merrill
lynch says more loan losses. one analyst says not much optimism regarding fed
moves, deepening fears about economy, wall street stuck with a lot of stuff
(ie., junk bonds, junk securities, junk derivatives, subprime mortgages, etc.)
which can’t be sold except at firesale prices, avoid equities particularly
small/midcaps, raise cash (taking profits/selling), looking for confirmation,
entered recession in february but with inflation a very tough scenario. an oil
analyst says commodity bubble bursting with profit-taking/path of least
resistance but still record diesel at $4.21, record home heating oil $3.80 so
wait and see. another analyst says emerging markets attractive relative to
developed citing p/e multiple comparison but no save haven and points to
further weakness in dollar relative to other currencies. metals analyst says
rate cut less than expected and etfs (and computerized trading thereof) has
propped demand. 3-18-08 Suckers’
bear market irrationally exuberant bubble rally on fed fear and trembling panic
move TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION
TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING. I WARNED
AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I
WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST
INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO
STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL). WHOLESALE/PRODUCER
PRICES UP MORE THAN EXPECTED .3% WITH CORE RATE UP .5%. HOUSING STARTS DOWN 36%
TO LOWEST LEVEL IN 17 YEARS. SHARPLY (MORE THAN 50%) LOWER EARNINGS AT GOLDMAN
AND LEHMAN RALLIES THEIR STOCKS WITH FAMILIAR MANTRA ‘NOT AS BAD AS EXPECTED’…..RIIIIIGHT!
DOLLAR DOWN AGAINST MOST CURRENCIES ON .75% PANIC CUT IN FED FUNDS RATE TO
2.25%. ONE ANALYST POINTS TO STRENGTH BY SECTOR, VIZ., FINANCIALS +8% (FOCUS OF
THE BAILOUT), SMALL CAPS +5%, EMERGING MARKETS +5%, AND SAYS DOLLAR WILL BE
BOTTOMING. AN OIL ANALYST SAYS OIL TO GO HIGHER WITH INFLUX OF SPECULATIVE NEW
MONEY FROM RATE CUT. FORMER FED GOVERNOR GRAMLEY SAY WE’RE IN SERIOUS ECONOMIC
CRISIS, IN RECESSION WITH ECONOMIC WEAKNESS SUFFICIENT TO MUTE DEMAND/SHARPER
PRICE INCREASES, AND COMPARES ECONOMY TO CANCER PATIENT UNDERGOING NECESSARY
CHEMOTHERAPY…..RIIIIIGHT….., FED HAS USED EMERGENCY POWERS NOT USED SINCE THE
GREAT DEPRESSION BUT CAN’T RELY SOLELY ON THE FED. ANOTHER ANALYST TALKS IN
TERMS OF TRADING ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS (FACT-THERE ARE HISTORICALLY VERY FEW
SUCCESSFUL TRADERS), BELIEVES FED WENT TOO FAR WITH RATE CUT AND SEES
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM WITH INFLATION, THUMBS UP FOR METALS/OIL AND LARGE CAP TECH
WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS, BUT FURTHER CAUTIONS OWING TO NEGATIVE REAL INTEREST
RATES (RATES LESS THAN INFLATION, RISK, ECONOMIC FACTORS/PREMIUMS). FINALLY,
THINGS ARE SO HUNKY DORY THAT AS REPORTED BY CONTINENTAL COIN AND JEWELRY
PEOPLE ARE PULLING THEIR TEETH, EXTRACTING AND SELLING THE GOLD. LOVELY! 3-17-08 LUNATIC/FRAUDS
200+ point computerized BUY PROGRAM suckers’ bear market/short-covering rally
to the upside based upon nothing whatsoever that hasn’t already been discounted
(ie., more rate cuts by fed in panic mode, etc.). I WARNED AGAINST THE
DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF
THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN
DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO STRENGTH/TAKE
PROFITS/SELL). INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FELL A GREATER THAN EXPECTED ONE-HALF OF
1%. ONE ANALYST CITES NEW LOWS FOR DOLLAR AND SUBSTANTIAL MOVE BY FED ALREADY
DISCOUNTED (.75%). ANOTHER ANALYST CITES WEAKER DOLLAR AND SLOWER ECONOMY
IMPACTING DEMAND (IE., FOR GOODS, ETC., AND HENCE, COMMODITY PRICES, HENCE
LOWER OIL PRICE THIS DAY), CITES THIS DAYS SHORT-COVERING RALLY AND
RECOMEMMENDS MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS (POSITIVE CURRENCY
TRANSLATION) AND OVERSEAS NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES (UTILITIES, ETC.).
YET aNOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST CITES BUSINESS MODELS COMPARABLE TO BEAR STEARNS
IN FINANCIAL SECTOR(PROBLEMS WITH HEDGE FUNDS/INVESTMENT BANKS) WHICH HAS
PROVEN INABILITY TO MANAGE THEIR OWN AFFAIRS SAYING DEREGULATION A DISASTER AND
REREGULATION A CURE, NO END TO FALL IN DOLLAR AS US BECOMES WORLD’S BEGGAR, AND
RECOMMENDS NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES (IE., EURO, SWISS FRANC, ETC., AND
EMERGING FAR EAST MARKETS). aNOTHER MORE CALIFORNIA/SENILE, ANALYST/BROKER WHO
LIKE OTHERS HAVE LOST SUBSTANTIAL MONIES FOR CLIENTS CITES LACK OF OF
TRANSPARENCY AS VALUE OF HIS BUYS AND HOLDS CONTINUES TO FALL WITH DOLLAR BUT
TALKS SOME SPECULATIVE BUYS AND CASH. A FINANCIAL TIMES EDITOR SAYS NO BOTTOM
YET, THAT BY HISTORICAL STANDARDS THE SCENARIO IS QUITE BAD FOR THE US, THAT
BEAR STEARNS WAS NOT ALONE AMONG US FIRMS IN THEIR PROBLEMS, THAT THE MARKET IS
EXPECTING 1% PANIC CUT BY FED, AND THAT THE US ECONOMY IS IN DEEP TROUBLE. 3-14-08 early surge based
on false benign inflation report (showing no change in retail inflation) from
the government gives way to reality that they can’t cover up/lie about (despite
intra-day suckers rally) when there is a run on large wall street investment
bank bear stearns (first such since the great depression) which cites liquidity
crisis as ny fed and jp morgan intervene with 28 day loan as bear is holding
high risk (worthless) assets which are illiquid (thinly traded/can’t be sold)
as reserves (they are not alone in this regard among the frauds on wallstreet,
etc., and only 2 days ago bear said balance sheet stable), all time lows for
the dollar, wsj reports majority of economists think we’re in recession,
michigan (non-washington non-fed gov’t report) sentiment index at new 16 year
low. One ANALYST SAYS DOLLAR WEAKNESS/LOWER YIELDS/ECONOMIC CONCERNS WILL
CONTINUE DOWNWARD TREND, INFLATION REPORT SURPRISE/FOOLISH AND HIGHER INFLATION
NUMBER FOR MARCH, CRESCENDO OF BAD NEWS IN COMING WEEK AND LOOK FOR NEW
LOWS/BOTTOM(?). OIL ANALYST CITES WEAK DOLLAR/EASY MONEY FLOWS AND SAYS LOOK
FOR OIL AT $120-$125. ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS ITS TOO LATE FOR FED TO TURN THIS
WRITEDOWN/SUBPRIME/ECONOMIC DOWNTURN AROUND WITH BEAR ANOTHER $35-$70 BILLION
BAD AND WHAT AFTER 28 DAY LOAN-EXPECT TAKEOVER/NO MORE BEAR STEARNS. 3-13-08 SMART MONEY WOULD SELL INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY (TAKE
PROFITS) WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T ALONE (NOTHING WHATSOEVER) AS STANDARD
AND POORS ANALYST SAYS THE END OF WRITEDOWNS MIGHT (BUT NOT QUITE) BE IN
SIGHT (WHICH IS LIKE THAT BROKER WHO
SELLS STOCKS FOR A LIVING SAYING HE’S TRYING TO KEEP CLIENTS IN STOCKS BECAUSE
AT SOME POINT THEY’LL GO UP)…RIIIIIGHT….. WHICH IS MEANINGLESS COMING FROM
STANDARD AND POORS WHICH SHOULD BE ACCOUNTABLE/LIABLE (FOR THIS FRAUD) ALONG
WITH THE FRAUDS ON WALL STREET, ETC., FOR THE TRIPLE A RATED SECURITIES ON THE
BOOKS WHICH EVERYONE KNOWS ARE IN FACT NOT TRIPLE A (WORTHLESS JUNK BONDS,
ASSETS, ETC.) SPURRING 200+ POINT SWING TO THE UPSIDE. VAST MAJORITY OF
ECONOMISTS NOW SAY WE’RE IN RECESSION (EVEN DESPITE ELECTION YEAR GIMMICKS-AS
GOOD AS GETS). RETAIL SALES DOWN MORE THAN EXPECTED .6%, FORECLOSURES UP 60%
YEAR OVER YEAR, DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY. ONE ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED
UNEMPLOYMENT/EMPLOYMENT WEAKNESS, PREMATURE TO SAY AS DID S&P THAT WE’RE
NEAR END OF WRITEDOWNS, MAJORITY OF ECONOMISTS NOW SAY WE’RE IN RECESSION,
HOUSING DOWNTURN MUCH FURTHER TO GO, VERY DEFENSIVE AS STOCKS CONTINUE TO HIT
NEW LOWS IN LARGE NUMBERS, WORST OF HOUSING CRISIS AHEAD, AND THIS IS A BEAR
MARKET IN A RECESSION ECONOMY. ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS U.S. CURRENT
ACCOUNT DEFICITS, LACK OF TRUST IN U.S. FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND TRIPLE A
RATINGS (BONDS, ETC., WHICH EVERYONE KNOWS ARE NOT), BANKS’ NEED FOR
RECAPITALIZATION, LOW SAVINGS (IE., CONSUMERS USING IE., GIFT CARDS FOR
GROCERIES, ETC.), FED LOSING CREDIBILITY BY FLIP-FLOPS/WRONG MOVES, AND SEES
ONLY SHORT-COVERING RALLIES AT BEST. VENEZUELA SHIFT TO PAYMENT IN EUROS FOR
OIL OUT OF DOLLARS. YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST SAYS WITH MONEY SUPPLY INCREASING AT
EXORBITANT 27% PER ANNUM, CITING ECONOMIST FRIEDMAN SAYS HYPER-INFLATIONARY
(CONTRARY TO LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS ECONOMISTS WHO THIS DAY SEE LAND OF FRUITS
AND NUTS REAL ESTATE DOWN 17.6%, SALES DOWN 40-45%, AND MEDIAN HOME PRICES DOWN
$100,000, AND BUDGET DEFICITS ACROSS THE BOARD). 3-12-08 VERY MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY,
DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY ON PANICKY FED KNEE JERK FUNNY MONEY ACTION, ONE
ANALYST/BROKER WHO SELLS STOCKS FOR A LIVING SAYS HE’S TRYING TO KEEP CLIENTS
IN STOCKS BECAUSE AT SOME POINT THEY’LL GO UP…..RIIIIIGHT…..REFERENCES THAT
THIS IS WORST R.E. DOWNTURN IN 100 YEARS AND NO BOTTOM YET IN R.E. AND WSJ SAYS
WORSE TO COME IN BAD PAPER (WRITEDOWNS, ETC.), AN OIL ANALYST SAYS RECORD HIGH
OIL PRICES ARE HEDGE AGAINST FALLING DOLLAR WITH A LOT OF DOLLARS RELATIVE TO
GOODS (AS IE., OIL, OTHER COMMODITIES, ETC.-HYPERINFLATION) AND IF YOU HOLD
DOLLARS/DOLLAR DENOMINATED ASSETS/SECURITIES YOU LOSE VALUE AND SEES $4.00 GAS
NATIONWIDE WITH RECORD DIESEL, WHILE ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS THAT SEEING FED GO
FROM LENDER OF LAST RESORT TO LENDER (PRINTER) OF FIRST RESORT IS
WORRISOME/TROUBLESOME. 3-11-08 Suckers’ bear
market irrationally exuberant new EPHEMERAL bubble rally on fed fear and trembling panic move TO ADD $200 BILLION IN WORLDWIDE LIQUIDITY
BY TEMPORARILY REPLACING (28 DAYS) ONE TYPE OF FUNNY-MONEY (WORTHLESS SUBPRIME
COLLATERALIZED DEBT) WITH ANOTHER LONGER TERM WORTHLESS FUNNY-MONEY (U.S. DEBT
WHICH CAN’T BE PAID BACK) WHICH IS A GREAT B.S. TALKING POINT BUT JUST A DROP
IN THE BUCKET CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UNDISCLOSED WRITEDOWNS/WORTHLESS
PAPER BEING HELD(AND, CURING A BUBBLE WITH A NEW BUBBLE-I DON'T THINK SO), ONE
ANALYST POINTS TO THE HYPERINFLATIONARY EFFECTS OF TOO MUCH LIQUIDITY CHASING
TOO FEW GOODS AND MORE BAD NEWS TO COME IN TECH SECTOR AND EARNINGS ALONG WITH
MORE WRITEOFFS/WRITEDOWNS WITH WORSE TO COME/NO BOTTOM YET AND HE REMAINS A
BEAR, LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS ECONOMIST SAYS BAD BUT NOT TECHNICALLY RECESSION
BASED ON GOVERNMENT ELECTION-YEAR DATA (ONLY NUTS AND NUTS FROM THE LAND OF
FRUITS AND NUTS BELIEVE SAME) WHILE TWO OTHER ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH
STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS/HIGH INFLATION/LOWER DOLLAR AS FOREIGNERS/INVESTORS GET OUT
OF WORTHLESS DOLLAR WITH BIG TROUBLE FOR U.S. POST-ELECTION AS REALITY SETS IN,
TRADE GAP WIDENED, AND SMART MONEY WOULD SELL THIS RALLY/TAKE PROFITS. 3-10-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY,
NEW BANK DOWNGRADES, MORGAN SLASHES EARNINGS ESTIMATES FOR S&P AND SAYS
ALREADY IN RECESSION, EVEN MORE ECONOMISTS NOW SAY THE OBVIOUS/RECESSION, RUMOR
THAT BEAR STERNS WITH SUBSTANTIAL LIQUIDITY ISSUES IS GOING UNDER, DOLLAR DOWN,
EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT ON CITIBANK AND BANKOFAMERICA, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS (HYPERINFLATIONARY) HIGH ENERGY AND FOOD PRICES (CONVENIENTLY LEFT OUT OF
THE FED’S “TOUTED” CORE RATE) ARE SQUEEZING THE CONSUMER (AND HENCE,
CONSUMPTION/65% OF GDP) AND THAT COMMODITIES A BUBBLE AND MULTINATIONALS WITH
OVERSEAS EARNINGS/POSITVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO WEAKER DOLLAR PREFERRED, AN
OIL ANALYST SAYS $200 OIL POSSIBLE (REITERATING GOLDMAN) WITH CONTINUED
WEAKENING OF DOLLAR, ANOTHER ANALYST/JOURNALIST SAYS SELL DOLLAR DENOMINATED
STOCKS/SECURITIES/ASSETS WHICH HAVE MUCH FURTHER TO FALL AND REITERATES AS DID
BARRON’S THAT MORTGAGE INSURERS HAVE OVER $5 TRILLION IN DEBT/EXPOSURE AND THAT
MANY OF THE NATIONS BANKS ARE ALREADY INSOLVENT SO GET OUT OF THE DOLLAR AND
U.S. STOCKS. 3-7-08 BAD EMPLOYMENT/JOBS
DATA across ALL SECTORS AS 63,000 JOBS LOST WITH DOWNWARD REVISIONS TO DECEMBER
AND JANUARY (ACTUALLY LOST 20,000) JOBS NUMBERS, ONE ANALYST SAYS WE’RE IN A
RECESSION WHILE MORE ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH ONE STATING THAT YOU ALMOST
NEVER SEE BACK-TO-BACK MONTHLY DECLINE IN EMPLOYMENT WITHOUT RECESSION AS NOW,
DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOWS, CONSUMERS INCREASED BORROWING TO STAY AFLOAT,
WASHINGTON MUTUAL FURTHER DOWNGRADES, SUPPORT LEVELS BROKEN TO THE DOWNSIDE,
sentiment- 85% believe things will get worse.
3-6-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY
TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS
FLOWING. 23% INCREASE IN FORECLOSURES IN
FOURTH QUARTER NEW RECORD HIGH, DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOWS, 10% OF HOMES WITH 0
OR NEGATIVE EQUITY, MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION SAYS HOME FORECLOSURES AT
ALL-TIME HIGH AND GOING HIGHER, ONE R.E. ANALYST SAYS ROUGH YEAR AHEAD WITH
FORECLOSURES AND DEFAULTS UP, ONE ANALYST SAYS MARKET WILL TEST NEW
LOWS/SUPPORT LEVELS WITH FLIGHT TO “QUALITY”/TREASURIES, LENDER THORNBURG
DEFAULTS AND ALONG WITH WASHINGTON MUTUAL IS DOWNGRADED, CONTINUING CLAIMS FOR
UNEMPLOYMENT AT HIGH LEVELS MEANS COMPANIES SHRINKING, IGNORE KNEE-JERK
ELECTION YEAR GOVERNMENT HUNKY DORY FAKE REPORTS. 3-5-08 OIL INVENTORIES LESS THAN EXPECTED, FED
BEIGE BOOK CITES ECONOMIC WEAKNESS PARTICULARLY SINCE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR,
LABOR COSTS ROSE, RISING PRICE PRESSURES/STAGFLATION, RECESSION/BEAR MARKET,
ONE ANALYST SAYS TOUGH FIRST HALF RECOMMENDS MULTINATIONALS WITH 50% OVERSEAS
EARNINGS (FAVORABLE CURRENCY TRANSLATION) AND CONSUMER STAPLES/HEALTH
RELATED/DEFENSIVE STOCKS, AMBAC TO FLOAT STOCK TO SHORE UP BALANCE SHEET TO
TUNE OF $1.5 BILLION/DILUTION AND
SHARES FALL $2 TO $8.70, OIL ANALYST CITES DECLINE IN OIL
INVENTORIES/DIESEL/JET FUEL AND WEAK DOLLAR AND TOP $108-$110 BUT $120-$130 IF
VENEZUELA/COLUMBIA CONFLICT AND MORE RECORD HIGH GAS PRICES TO COME, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DECLINE IN REAL ESTATE/HOUSING WITH STARTS
DOWN 15-20-40% ON WELL DESERVED PESSIMISM/CREDIT CRUNCH. 3-4-08 Suckers’ bear market rally into the close
based on b**l s**t alone, viz., rumor/speculation about yet another bailout for
wall street/ambac/bond insurers and over 200 point swing to the upside based on
nothing whatsoever, one economist/analyst notes this is the deepest housing
decline since great depression, bernanke says another spike in foreclosures
ahead and proposes reduction of principal amounts in existing loans (sounds
like a plan…..riiiiight!), ken shreve finance editor investors business daily
says bear market 6-9 months/ don’t try to catch a falling knife as institutions
still selling/keep money safe in 3% money market for time being, one oil
analyst says oil higher before lower as expected rate cut will further weaken
dollar and drive up oil/commodities prices and problems in consumer debt in
addition to mortgages and nobody wants to hold dollars, 3-3-08 Suckers’ bear
market rally into the close, yes we are in a recession from someone who unlike
the frauds on wall street has read security analysis by graham, dodd, and
cottle and understands it (warren buffet), all news
negative, ie., ism manufacturing index down to 48.3 (contraction), car sales
down at gm (-12%) and ford (-7%), construction spending down most in 14 years,
oil analysts point to the new highs while economist/analyst says dollar has
fallen through all support levels meaning more bottoms to come, INFLATION
OUTPACING CONSUMER SPENDING (EVEN WITH SPENDING NUMBER HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
WHICH PROBABLY MEANS REALITY WAS NEGATIVE), CONSUMER CONFIDENCE/SENTIMENT DOWN
SHARPLY, CHICAGO MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN INDICATING CONTRACTION, $5.29 BILLION
LOSS FOR AIG ON WRITEOFFS, INTRA DAY HIGH FOR OIL OVER $103, INFLATION/WEAK
DOLLAR/ECONOMIC WEAKNESS=STAGFLATION, FOURTH MONTHLY DECLINE IN A ROW FOR STOCK
MARKET, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST IF NOT THEN ALMOST IN RECESSION WITH WORSE
INFLATION NEWS AND INFLATION ADJUSTED INCOME/SPENDING FLAT, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION AND CITES NEGATIVE SAVINGS RATE AND FURTHER
ECONOMIC WEAKNESS, ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED ECONOMIC WEAKNESS WITH FURTHER DOLLAR
DECLINE SO BULLISH ON METALS AND BEARISH ON STOCKS, AND YET ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS INFLATION/RECESSION BUT NOT DEPRESSION…..RIIIIIGHT, GDP
GROWTH REPORTED MUCH LESS THAN EXPECTED (BUT CLOSER TO REALITY) AT
MINISCULE .6%, UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS JUMP
19,000 TO 373,000 AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE POST KATRINA, BERNANKE SAYS CONSUMER
WORSE OFF THAN JUST AFTER 911(?) AND THAT SOME BANKS COULD (WILL) FAIL AND THAT
STAGFLATION WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS THE 70’S, FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC SHOW
MASSIVE LOSSES, ONE ANALYST 50 YEARS IN THE BUSINESS SEES RECESSION AND SAYS
FINANCIALS HAVE BECOME IMPENETRABLE IN TERMS OF ANALYSIS/LOSSES, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS WE’RE NOWHERE NEAR IMPROVEMENT IN R.E./HOUSING MARKET,
YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION WITH HIGHER INFLATION LOWER GROWTH
(STAGFLATION) AND THAT FED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN WRONG AND ONLY RECESSION TO
BRING DOWN INFLATION, new record LOW
FOR DOLLAR AGAINST EURO AND SWISS FRANC (AND EVEN WORTH LESS THAN THE LOWLY
CANADIAN LOONEY, ETC.) WHICH ALONG WITH DEFICIT SPENDING IS HYPERINFLATIONARY
AS OIL SEES NEW INTRADAY HIGH OF $102.64, SALES/ORDERS OF DURABLE GOODS DOWN
MORE THAN EXPECTED 5.3%, BERNANKE’S NEGATIVE COMMENTS ON GREENSPAN RECESSION
PROMISES RATE CUTS FOR NEW BUBBLE WHICH RALLIES STOCKS, ONE ANALYST SAYS BANKS
AS THEIR OWN INSURERS INCREASES RISK, ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DEFICIT
SPENDING INCREASES INFLATIONARY PROBLEMS/RISK, FORECLOSURES/BANK REPO’S UP 90%
YEAR OVER YEAR, REGULATORS PREDICT OVER 100 BANK FAILURES, FORECLOSURES UP 57%
IN JANUARY, WHOLESALE INFLATION UP MUCH HIGHER THAN EXPECTED 7.5% (CORE RATE
4+%), 9% DROP IN HOME VALUES/PRICES, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOWN TO 17 YEAR LOW,
ELECTION YEAR/PROTECT INCOMPETENT INCUMBENT GOV’T PRINTING WORTHLESS DOLLARS
LIKE MAD WITH EXCESS LIQUIDITY CHASING TOO FEW GOODS (IE., FOOD UP 6%, ETC.)
WHICH IS HYPER-INFLATIONARY, ECONOMIST/ANALYST DR. KELLNER SAYS EASIER
MONEY/FISCAL PACKAGE WON’T REFLATE HOUSING MARKET (RECESSION), ANOTHER ANALYST
SAYS IN BEAR MARKET/RECESSION RECOMMENDS DEFENSIVE/PREFERRED STOCKS/BONDS/CASH,
DR. SHILLER- CASE-SHILLER INDEX- HOME VALUES CONTINUED DECLINE AND IN OR ABOUT
TO ENTER RECESSION (that’s already here), Stiglitz
Blames Greenspan For Recession, IBM ON $15 BILLION BUYBACK AND JAWBONING
AND SIGNIFICANT OVERSEAS SALES (AND POSITIVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO THE
WORTHLESS DOLLAR) RALLIES MARKET (WHAT BULL S**T), SHARPLY LOWER AND MORE WORTHLESS DOLLAR/HIGH OIL PRICE RALLY
CREATES YET ANOTHER B.S. SWING OF OVER 200 POINTS TO THE UPSIDE, FOOD PRICES UP
6% ON ETHANOL CROWD-OUT, HOME SALES
DOWN 5.5% / MEDIAN SALES PRICE DOWN 4.6%, ONE R.E. EXPERT SAYS WITH SALES
FALLING AND FORECLOSURES RISING WORSE YET TO COME, LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
FELL FOR FOURTH MONTH IN A ROW (-.1%), PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX
UNEXPECTEDLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER (The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index fell
to a -24, indicating a sharp contraction in the region's manufacturing
activity. Economists had anticipated a reading of -10, a less pronounced
contraction. Last month the reading came in at -20.9.), ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS SIGNIFICANT INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT-STAGFLATION-AHEAD ALONG WITH CONTINUED
DEFLATION OF HOUSING BUBBLE WITH NATIONWIDE AVERAGE PRICE DECLINE OF 8-10% AND
ANOTHER DECLINE OF 15-20% TO COME. MODEST DROP RELATIVE TO REALITY TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE
DOLLARS FLOWING. (3-28-08) (DOW
-86, NASDAQ -20, S&P –10.5) [CLOSE- OIL $105.62/ GOLD $930.60 / SILVER
$17.94 / PLATINUM $2,020 / DOLLAR= .63 EURO, 98 YEN, .4979 POUND STERLING, ETC.
(How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.44%]. I WARNED AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I
WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL
ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED
SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL). GREAT
OPPORTUNITY TO SELL INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY (TAKE
PROFITS). REALITY: THIS IS A BEAR
MARKET IN A SECULAR BEAR MARKET IN A RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A SECULAR (AND QUITE
PERMANENT-THEY’VE MADE ALL THE WRONG CHOICES) ECONOMIC DOWNTREND IN THE U.S. ONE
ANALYST/REPORTER/ JOURNALIST FROM INSIDE SOURCES PEGS THE SUB-PRIME DOLLAR
VALUE OF THE SHILLED WORTHLESS PAPER AT $516 TRILLION (EVEN A PERCENTAGE OF
SAME RENDERS THE PROBLEM UNFIXABLE-HENCE, CULPABLE PARTIES MUST BE HELD
ACCOUNTABLE AND DISGORGE THEIR ILL-GOTTEN GAINS FROM, IE., COMMISSIONING
WORTHLESS PAPER, TAKING A POINT HERE OR THERE AND FRAUDULENTLY PASSING SAME ON,
AD INFINITUM, ETC.). Time to put the wall street among other corporate frauds
in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their ill-gotten
gains. [Please
note: I seldom name analysts/reporters/journalists bearing not so glad tidings
for fear they’ll be crucified by the frauds on wall street]. (3-27-08) (DOW -120, NASDAQ -43, S&P -15) [CLOSE-
OIL $107.58/ GOLD $948.80 / SILVER $18.55 / PLATINUM $2,043.70 / DOLLAR= .63
EURO, 98 YEN, .4979 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR
NOTE YIELD 3.54%]. GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL (TAKE PROFITS) AS THE
WALL STREET SCAM IS UNEARTHED BY REVELATION THAT OF 9 INVESTMENT VEHICLES
S&P (MAJORITY OF 401K HOLDINGS, ETC.) WAS WORST PERFORMER (1% OR LESS AND
IF YOU FACTOR IN DECLINING DOLLAR, NEGATIVE RELATIVE TO NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED
ALTERNATIVES OVER DECADE). FOURTH QUARTER
ECONOMIC GROWTH REVISED UPWARD TO ANEMIC .6% (RIIIIIGHT…..SO THEY WON’T HAVE TO
USE THE R FOR REALITY WORD RECESSION). OIL UP ON SUPPLY CONCERNS AND DOLLAR
DOWN SHARPLY. UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS AT HIGH 366,000 AND ORACLE DISAPPOINTS ON
SALES AS MERRILL IS DOWNGRADED. ONE ANALYST SAYS LEHMAN (-9%) BEARS EERIE
SIMILARITIES TO BEAR STEARNS, CITES SUBSTANTIAL NUMBER OF PUTS AND RUN ON BANKS
WHICH WILL HELP FOREIGN BANKS (IE., SWISS, ETC.), ALSO CAUTIONS ON DRUG
SECTOR/SIDE EFFECTS. OIL ANALYST EMPHASIZES $7 RUN IN TWO DAYS, BOMBING OF OIL
SUPPLY LINE IN IRAQ, WEAKER DOLLAR, LIQUIDITY CRISIS, IRAQ VIOLENCE, LOWER
REFINERY RUNS AND SAYS OIL/GAS PRICES HIGHER BEFORE LOWER. ONE ECONOMIST SAYS
CREDIT CRISIS AND POINTS TO PURCHASING POWER FAILURE AS BORROWED FUNDS (IE.,
HOME EQUITY, ETC.) ARE DEPLETED AND WAGES LOWER, WHILE ANOTHER ECONOMIST WHO
HAS ALREADY CALLED RECESSION SEES MORE REGULATION FOR TROUBLED INVESTMENT BANKS AS DISTINGUISHED FROM FDIC
INSURED COMMERCIAL BANKS AND SAYS CREDIT CRUNCH WILL CONTINUE. AIRLINE COMMENTATOR/ANALYST
CITES OLDER PLANES FOR PUBLICIZED PROBLEMS, SURCHARGES/HIGHER FUEL COSTS FOR
HIGHER PRICES. 3-26-08 GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL (TAKE
PROFITS) IN WHAT REMAINS OF THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY AS THE WALL STREET
SCAM UNEARTHED BY REVELATION THAT OF 9 INVESTMENT VEHICLES S&P (MAJORITY OF
401K HOLDINGS, ETC.) WAS WORST PERFORMER (1% OR LESS AND IF YOU FACTOR IN DECLINING
DOLLAR, NEGATIVE RELATIVE TO NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED ALTERNATIVES OVER DECADE).
OIL UP ON SUPPLY CONCERNS AND DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY. BANKING SECTOR DOWNGRADED
CITING MORE WRITE-DOWNS AND –84% EARNINGS (CITI, ETC.). FACTORY ORDERS/DURABLES
DOWN MORE THAN EXPECTED 1.75% AND NEW HOME SALES DOWN 1.8% ALONG WITH PRICE
DECLINES (INCLUDING MEDIAN PRICE DECLINE). WSJ ARTICLE RAISES SPECTER OF FED
BANKRUPTCY AND PUBLIC BAILOUT. ONE ANALYST CITES CITIBANK DIFFICULTIES, LBO
TROUBLES (IE., CLEAR CHANNEL, ETC.), FED HOLDING JUNK PAPER, AND RECOMMENDS
DEFENSIVE (IE., CONSUMER STAPLES, ETC.) POSTURE INCLUDING MULTINATIONALS WITH
OVERSEAS EARNINGS (FAVORABLE CURRENCY TRANSLATION). OIL ANALYST SAYS RECORD
OIL/ GAS PRICES (GAS UP ANOTHER 5-10 CENTS) AND CITES DECLINE IN REFINERY RUN,
CONFLICT IN IRAQ, AND EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK’S FIGHT AGAINST INFLATION/LOWER
DOLLAR AND SAYS NATURAL GAS AN INTERESTING PLAY. ONE REPORTER CITES DROP IN GAS
SUPPLIES AND FINANCIAL SECTOR WRITEDOWNS. R.E. ANALYST POINTS TO SO. CAL. 400%
INCREASE IN FORECLOSURES AND SAYS NO IMPROVEMENT UNTIL AT LEAST LATE 2008/EARLY
2009. CURRENCY EXPERT SAYS FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS WILL SURVIVE BUT WON’T BE
LENDING, DOLLAR RISK TO THE DOWNSIDE, FED HOLDING BAD RESERVES, HOUSING MARKET
TO CONTINUE DECLINE, AND FAVORS EURO. 3-25-08 GREAT
OPPORTUNITY TO SELL (TAKE PROFITS) THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY INTO
THE CLOSE WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T AND NOTHING BUT BAD ECONOMIC NEWS AS WALL
STREET FRAUDS ATTEMPT TO WINDOW DRESS
REALISTICALLY DISMAL FIRST QUARTER NUMBERS TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND
COMPUTERIZED PROGRAM TRADE COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING. DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY.
earnings downgrade for merrill lynch/financials and reluctance to take
mark-to-market loss (prompted bear bailout) scuttles(?) clear channel deal.
GOVERNMENT HIRING NEW (FDIC) BANK REGULATORS FOR INCREASING BANK FAILURES.
S&P CASE SHILLER INDEX REGISTERS SHARPEST HOUSING PRICE DECLINE ON RECORD
AT –11.4%, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX DOWN TO 5 YR. LOW OF 65 WHICH IS
SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW EXPECTED 73, AND EXPECTATIONS INDEX AT LOWEST SINCE 1973.
KEN SHREVE OF IBD POINTS TO VOLUME (COMMISSION GENERATING COMPUTERIZED
PROGRAMMED TRADES SIMULATING DEMAND) AS A GOOD SIGN…RIIIIIGHT…CITES SELLING
PRESSURE ON THE WAY UP AND SAYS WAIT AND SEE AS NEW LEADERSHIP
DEVELOPS…RIIIIIGHT (WHICH TRANSLATED MEANS HE DOESN’T KNOW WHERE THIS
IRRATIONALLY EXUBERANT MARKET IS GOING. S&P CASE SHILLER ANALYST/VP SAYS
HOME PRICES IN DECLINE WHICH ACCELERATED IN THE LAST 6-9 MONTHS AND SEES
–20%/TROUGH IN LATE 2008. R.E. ANALYST DOESN’T SEE BOTTOM PARTICULARLY IN SO.
CALIFORNIA (IE., LA, SAN DIEGO, ETC.) (MIAMI, LAS VEGAS, PHOENIX VERY BAD). AN
ECONOMIST SAYS ANOTHER YEAR OF DECLINES SINCE CONSUMER SPENDING/CONFIDENCE HAS
WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY. CALIFORNIA BUREAUCRAT (THAT’S ALL THERE IS) SAYS TOUGH
TIMES AHEAD, POINTS TO UPSIDE DOWN CONDITIONS (MORTGAGE LOANS GREATER THAN
PROPERTY VALUES) AND SAYS HOUSE OF CARDS. ANOTHER ECONOMIST SAYS MORE EROSION
ON THE PRICE SIDE,-20%, AND A WAYS TO GO. R.E. PROF. SAYS SLIDE TO CONTINUE
UNTIL EXCESS SUPPLY IS CLEARED. 3-24-08 GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL
INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET/SHORT-COVERING RALLY (TAKE PROFITS) WHICH IS
BASED UPON B**L S**T AND NO REAL
ECONOMIC NEWS AS WALL STREET FRAUDS IN LAST DITCH EFFORT TO WINDOW DRESS
REALISTICALLY DISMAL FIRST QUARTER NUMBERS TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND
COMPUTERIZED PROGRAM TRADE COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING. THE
ELECTION-YEAR-INDUCED RALLY FAKE NEWS PUSHED BY THE WALL STREET FRAUDS IS A
MEAGER TWO-FOLD; VIZ., EXISTING HOME SALES INCREASED (JAN.-FEB.) 2.9% EXCEEDING
SUBSTANTIALLY ECONOMISTS’ PREDICTIONS AND J.P. MORGAN WILLING TO PAY $10
INSTEAD OF $2 PER SHARE FOR FAILED INVESTMENT BANK BEAR STEARNS. REALITY:
INCREASED SALES DUE TO INCREASED FORECLOSURE SALES; PRICES DOWN 8.2%; MEDIAN
HOME PRICE FELL MOST EVER ON RECORD; INCREASED BEAR MONEY TO PLACATE
SHAREHOLDERS DESPERATE MOVE TO KEEP WORTHLESS SECURITIES FROM BEING DUMPED IN
MARKET WHERE SAME CAN’T BE SOLD AND WHERE SUCH WOULD RESULT IN OTHER SUCH BEING
MARKED TO MARKET (PENNIES ON A DOLLAR). ONE ANALYST SAYS NOTHING FUNDAMENTALLY
HAS CHANGED, DAY TO DAY TRADING ON DAY’S NEWS AND TODAY A HAPPY (NON) NEWS
DAY…RIIIIIGHT…AND RECOMMENDS FOR PROTECTION NON-U.S. ASSETS/SECURITIES, METALS,
AND BIG CAP TECH/MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS (POSITIVE CURRENCY
TRANSLATION). AN ECONOMIST SAYS THE FED’S CONFUSING DEAL PROTECTS ITS OWN MONEY
BY ESSENTIALLY PROVIDING A “BRIDGE LOAN” TO PREVENT THE WORTHLESS SECURITIES
FROM BEING DUMPED WHERE THERE IS NO MARKET FOR SAME CAUSING FURTHER WRITEDOWNS
across THE BOARD ON MARK TO MARKET. ANOTHER ANALYST EMPHASIZES DISFUNCTIONAL
BANKING/CONTINUED WRITEDOWNS/LOSSES/BALANCE SHEET PROBLEMS FOR FINANCIAL
INSTITUTIONS/WE’VE NOT SEEN THE BOTTOM, IN RECOMMENDING TAKING SOME PROFITS
WITH ELECTION YEAR STIMULUS CREATING INFLATIONARY PROBLEMS, THOUGH STILL IN
BEAR MARKET THE REAL DECLINE AND REAL RECESSION (WE’RE ALREADY IN RECESSION) TO
COME POST ELECTION/2009 AND THE INTERMEDIATE TERM IS VERY SCARY. ONE R.E.
ANALYST SAYS ONE THIRD OF EXISTING HOME SALES WERE FORECLOSURES WITH OVERSUPPLY
OF PROPERTIES WHICH WILL TAKE A LONG TIME TO WORK OUT WHILE ANOTHER r.e.
ANALYST SAYS YEARS TO WORK OUT WITH ONLY LIMITED IMPROVEMENT LATE 2009. 3-20-08 FULL
MOON WITH OBVIOUS EFFECT ON LUNATIC WALL STREET FRAUDS. SMART MONEY
WOULD SELL INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET/SHORT-COVERING RALLY (TAKE PROFITS)
WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T AND EXCEEDINGLY BAD ECONOMIC NEWS VIZ.,
UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS UP MUCH MORE THAN EXPECTED 22,000 TO HIGH 378,000, CREDIT
SWISSE TO REVISE PREVIOUS YEARS PROFITS DOWN ON FURTHER WRITEDOWNS,
PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN,
AND LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS DOWN FOR FIFTH MONTH IN A ROW WHICH HAS
ALWAYS SIGNALED/INDICATED/PRECEDED ECONOMIC DOWNTURN/CONTRACTION/RECESSION. ONE
SOMEWHAT SENILE ANALYST WELCOMED THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF FAKE/FIAT/PRINTED MONEY
SAYING THE FINANCIALS WHICH HAVE LAGGED THE MARKET BY 20% WILL BE
HELPED/INFLATED OUT OF THEIR DOLDRUMS (HYPERINFLATIONARY) BY SAME WHICH HE
LIKES BECAUSE HE’S HEAVILY CONCENTRATED IN FINANCIALS (GREAT CALL) AND THAT THE
MONEY HASN’T SHOWN UP YET BUT FAILS TO REALIZE THE U.S. HAS NEVER BEEN IN SUCH
DIRE CIRCUMSTANCES ECONOMICALLY, FINANCIALLY, AND GEOPOLITICALLY AS NOW. A MORE
RATIONAL VIEW BY ECONOMIST DR. IRVING KELLNER SAID STIMULUS THUS FAR TREATS
SYMPTOMS WITH MERE BANDAIDS WHICH FAIL TO ADDRESS/CURE THE
PROBLEM/CAUSE/DISEASE AND IS RATHER SIMPLISTIC TO A FAULT IN FOCUSING SOLELY ON
HOUSING/REAL ESTATE VALUES ALTHOUGH CORRECTLY STATES THAT EASIER MONEY WILL NOT
ENHANCE THE VALUE OF MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES WHICH REMAIN INDETERMINANT,
DOWN, OR GOING DOWN AND ADVOCATES DEPRESSION ERA APPROACH SINCE HE CORRECTLY
STATES ECONOMY HAS ALREADY (DECEMBER,
2007 OR JANUARY, 2008) ENTERED THE WORST RECESSION OF THE POST-WAR ERA (DESPITE
ELECTION YEAR SPIN). ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS THIS IS A SHORT-COVERING RALLY AND AN
OPPORTUNITY TO SELL/TAKE PROFITS (i TOTALLY AGREE), THAT THE FED DESPERATION
MOVES INCLUDING PRINTING DOLLARS LIKE MAD
HAVE LED TO A DEBASEMENT OF THE U.S. CURRENCY AND THAT THE DOLLAR WILL
CONTINUE TO GO LOWER, THAT TRILLIONS HAVE BEEN BORROWED BUT THAT THEY WILL BE
UNSUCCESSFUL IN REINFLATING THE BUBBLE, THAT THE FINANCIAL CRISIS IS NO WHERE
NEAR BEING OVER WITH MUCH MORE CARNAGE TO COME, AND RECOMMENDS BEING TOTALLY
OUT OF THE DOLLAR INCLUDING DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES AND INTO OTHER
FOREIGN CURRENCIES/SECURITIES. 3-19-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO
REALITY. I WARNED AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA
BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I
WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL
INTO STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL). morgan stanley earnings down 40% but better
than expected…..riiiiight…..on computerized bond/stock trading commissions.
merrill lynch says more loan losses. one analyst says not much optimism
regarding fed moves, deepening fears about economy, wall street stuck with a
lot of stuff (ie., junk bonds, junk securities, junk derivatives, subprime
mortgages, etc.) which can’t be sold except at firesale prices, avoid equities
particularly small/midcaps, raise cash (taking profits/selling), looking for
confirmation, entered recession in february but with inflation a very tough
scenario. an oil analyst says commodity bubble bursting with profit-taking/path
of least resistance but still record diesel at $4.21, record home heating oil
$3.80 so wait and see. another analyst says emerging markets attractive
relative to developed citing p/e multiple comparison but no save haven and
points to further weakness in dollar relative to other currencies. metals
analyst says rate cut less than expected and etfs (and computerized trading
thereof) has propped demand. 3-18-08 Suckers’
bear market irrationally exuberant bubble rally on fed fear and trembling panic
move TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION
TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING. I WARNED
AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I
WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST
INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO
STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL). WHOLESALE/PRODUCER
PRICES UP MORE THAN EXPECTED .3% WITH CORE RATE UP .5%. HOUSING STARTS DOWN 36%
TO LOWEST LEVEL IN 17 YEARS. SHARPLY (MORE THAN 50%) LOWER EARNINGS AT GOLDMAN
AND LEHMAN RALLIES THEIR STOCKS WITH FAMILIAR MANTRA ‘NOT AS BAD AS
EXPECTED’…..RIIIIIGHT! DOLLAR DOWN AGAINST MOST CURRENCIES ON .75% PANIC CUT IN
FED FUNDS RATE TO 2.25%. ONE ANALYST POINTS TO STRENGTH BY SECTOR, VIZ.,
FINANCIALS +8% (FOCUS OF THE BAILOUT), SMALL CAPS +5%, EMERGING MARKETS +5%,
AND SAYS DOLLAR WILL BE BOTTOMING. AN OIL ANALYST SAYS OIL TO GO HIGHER WITH
INFLUX OF SPECULATIVE NEW MONEY FROM RATE CUT. FORMER FED GOVERNOR GRAMLEY SAY
WE’RE IN SERIOUS ECONOMIC CRISIS, IN RECESSION WITH ECONOMIC WEAKNESS
SUFFICIENT TO MUTE DEMAND/SHARPER PRICE INCREASES, AND COMPARES ECONOMY TO
CANCER PATIENT UNDERGOING NECESSARY CHEMOTHERAPY…..RIIIIIGHT….., FED HAS USED
EMERGENCY POWERS NOT USED SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION BUT CAN’T RELY SOLELY ON THE
FED. ANOTHER ANALYST TALKS IN TERMS OF TRADING ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS
(FACT-THERE ARE HISTORICALLY VERY FEW SUCCESSFUL TRADERS), BELIEVES FED WENT
TOO FAR WITH RATE CUT AND SEES SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM WITH INFLATION, THUMBS UP
FOR METALS/OIL AND LARGE CAP TECH WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS, BUT FURTHER CAUTIONS
OWING TO NEGATIVE REAL INTEREST RATES (RATES LESS THAN INFLATION, RISK,
ECONOMIC FACTORS/PREMIUMS). FINALLY, THINGS ARE SO HUNKY DORY THAT AS REPORTED
BY CONTINENTAL COIN AND JEWELRY PEOPLE ARE PULLING THEIR TEETH, EXTRACTING AND
SELLING THE GOLD. LOVELY! 3-17-08 LUNATIC/FRAUDS
200+ point computerized BUY PROGRAM suckers’ bear market/short-covering rally
to the upside based upon nothing whatsoever that hasn’t already been discounted
(ie., more rate cuts by fed in panic mode, etc.). I WARNED AGAINST THE
DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF
THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN
DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO STRENGTH/TAKE
PROFITS/SELL). INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FELL A GREATER THAN EXPECTED ONE-HALF OF
1%. ONE ANALYST CITES NEW LOWS FOR DOLLAR AND SUBSTANTIAL MOVE BY FED ALREADY
DISCOUNTED (.75%). ANOTHER ANALYST CITES WEAKER DOLLAR AND SLOWER ECONOMY
IMPACTING DEMAND (IE., FOR GOODS, ETC., AND HENCE, COMMODITY PRICES, HENCE
LOWER OIL PRICE THIS DAY), CITES THIS DAYS SHORT-COVERING RALLY AND
RECOMEMMENDS MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS (POSITIVE CURRENCY
TRANSLATION) AND OVERSEAS NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES (UTILITIES, ETC.).
YET aNOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST CITES BUSINESS MODELS COMPARABLE TO BEAR STEARNS
IN FINANCIAL SECTOR(PROBLEMS WITH HEDGE FUNDS/INVESTMENT BANKS) WHICH HAS
PROVEN INABILITY TO MANAGE THEIR OWN AFFAIRS SAYING DEREGULATION A DISASTER AND
REREGULATION A CURE, NO END TO FALL IN DOLLAR AS US BECOMES WORLD’S BEGGAR, AND
RECOMMENDS NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES (IE., EURO, SWISS FRANC, ETC., AND
EMERGING FAR EAST MARKETS). aNOTHER MORE CALIFORNIA/SENILE, ANALYST/BROKER WHO
LIKE OTHERS HAVE LOST SUBSTANTIAL MONIES FOR CLIENTS CITES LACK OF OF
TRANSPARENCY AS VALUE OF HIS BUYS AND HOLDS CONTINUES TO FALL WITH DOLLAR BUT
TALKS SOME SPECULATIVE BUYS AND CASH. A FINANCIAL TIMES EDITOR SAYS NO BOTTOM
YET, THAT BY HISTORICAL STANDARDS THE SCENARIO IS QUITE BAD FOR THE US, THAT
BEAR STEARNS WAS NOT ALONE AMONG US FIRMS IN THEIR PROBLEMS, THAT THE MARKET IS
EXPECTING 1% PANIC CUT BY FED, AND THAT THE US ECONOMY IS IN DEEP TROUBLE. 3-14-08 early surge based
on false benign inflation report (showing no change in retail inflation) from
the government gives way to reality that they can’t cover up/lie about (despite
intra-day suckers rally) when there is a run on large wall street investment
bank bear stearns (first such since the great depression) which cites liquidity
crisis as ny fed and jp morgan intervene with 28 day loan as bear is holding
high risk (worthless) assets which are illiquid (thinly traded/can’t be sold)
as reserves (they are not alone in this regard among the frauds on wallstreet,
etc., and only 2 days ago bear said balance sheet stable), all time lows for
the dollar, wsj reports majority of economists think we’re in recession,
michigan (non-washington non-fed gov’t report) sentiment index at new 16 year
low. One ANALYST SAYS DOLLAR WEAKNESS/LOWER YIELDS/ECONOMIC CONCERNS WILL
CONTINUE DOWNWARD TREND, INFLATION REPORT SURPRISE/FOOLISH AND HIGHER INFLATION
NUMBER FOR MARCH, CRESCENDO OF BAD NEWS IN COMING WEEK AND LOOK FOR NEW
LOWS/BOTTOM(?). OIL ANALYST CITES WEAK DOLLAR/EASY MONEY FLOWS AND SAYS LOOK
FOR OIL AT $120-$125. ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS ITS TOO LATE FOR FED TO TURN THIS
WRITEDOWN/SUBPRIME/ECONOMIC DOWNTURN AROUND WITH BEAR ANOTHER $35-$70 BILLION
BAD AND WHAT AFTER 28 DAY LOAN-EXPECT TAKEOVER/NO MORE BEAR STEARNS. 3-13-08 SMART MONEY WOULD SELL INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY (TAKE
PROFITS) WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T ALONE (NOTHING WHATSOEVER) AS STANDARD
AND POORS ANALYST SAYS THE END OF WRITEDOWNS MIGHT (BUT NOT QUITE) BE IN
SIGHT (WHICH IS LIKE THAT BROKER WHO
SELLS STOCKS FOR A LIVING SAYING HE’S TRYING TO KEEP CLIENTS IN STOCKS BECAUSE
AT SOME POINT THEY’LL GO UP)…RIIIIIGHT….. WHICH IS MEANINGLESS COMING FROM
STANDARD AND POORS WHICH SHOULD BE ACCOUNTABLE/LIABLE (FOR THIS FRAUD) ALONG
WITH THE FRAUDS ON WALL STREET, ETC., FOR THE TRIPLE A RATED SECURITIES ON THE
BOOKS WHICH EVERYONE KNOWS ARE IN FACT NOT TRIPLE A (WORTHLESS JUNK BONDS,
ASSETS, ETC.) SPURRING 200+ POINT SWING TO THE UPSIDE. VAST MAJORITY OF
ECONOMISTS NOW SAY WE’RE IN RECESSION (EVEN DESPITE ELECTION YEAR GIMMICKS-AS
GOOD AS GETS). RETAIL SALES DOWN MORE THAN EXPECTED .6%, FORECLOSURES UP 60%
YEAR OVER YEAR, DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY. ONE ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED
UNEMPLOYMENT/EMPLOYMENT WEAKNESS, PREMATURE TO SAY AS DID S&P THAT WE’RE
NEAR END OF WRITEDOWNS, MAJORITY OF ECONOMISTS NOW SAY WE’RE IN RECESSION,
HOUSING DOWNTURN MUCH FURTHER TO GO, VERY DEFENSIVE AS STOCKS CONTINUE TO HIT
NEW LOWS IN LARGE NUMBERS, WORST OF HOUSING CRISIS AHEAD, AND THIS IS A BEAR
MARKET IN A RECESSION ECONOMY. ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS U.S. CURRENT
ACCOUNT DEFICITS, LACK OF TRUST IN U.S. FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND TRIPLE A
RATINGS (BONDS, ETC., WHICH EVERYONE KNOWS ARE NOT), BANKS’ NEED FOR
RECAPITALIZATION, LOW SAVINGS (IE., CONSUMERS USING IE., GIFT CARDS FOR
GROCERIES, ETC.), FED LOSING CREDIBILITY BY FLIP-FLOPS/WRONG MOVES, AND SEES
ONLY SHORT-COVERING RALLIES AT BEST. VENEZUELA SHIFT TO PAYMENT IN EUROS FOR
OIL OUT OF DOLLARS. YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST SAYS WITH MONEY SUPPLY INCREASING AT
EXORBITANT 27% PER ANNUM, CITING ECONOMIST FRIEDMAN SAYS HYPER-INFLATIONARY
(CONTRARY TO LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS ECONOMISTS WHO THIS DAY SEE LAND OF FRUITS
AND NUTS REAL ESTATE DOWN 17.6%, SALES DOWN 40-45%, AND MEDIAN HOME PRICES DOWN
$100,000, AND BUDGET DEFICITS ACROSS THE BOARD). 3-12-08 VERY MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY,
DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY ON PANICKY FED KNEE JERK FUNNY MONEY ACTION, ONE
ANALYST/BROKER WHO SELLS STOCKS FOR A LIVING SAYS HE’S TRYING TO KEEP CLIENTS
IN STOCKS BECAUSE AT SOME POINT THEY’LL GO UP…..RIIIIIGHT…..REFERENCES THAT
THIS IS WORST R.E. DOWNTURN IN 100 YEARS AND NO BOTTOM YET IN R.E. AND WSJ SAYS
WORSE TO COME IN BAD PAPER (WRITEDOWNS, ETC.), AN OIL ANALYST SAYS RECORD HIGH
OIL PRICES ARE HEDGE AGAINST FALLING DOLLAR WITH A LOT OF DOLLARS RELATIVE TO
GOODS (AS IE., OIL, OTHER COMMODITIES, ETC.-HYPERINFLATION) AND IF YOU HOLD
DOLLARS/DOLLAR DENOMINATED ASSETS/SECURITIES YOU LOSE VALUE AND SEES $4.00 GAS
NATIONWIDE WITH RECORD DIESEL, WHILE ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS THAT SEEING FED GO
FROM LENDER OF LAST RESORT TO LENDER (PRINTER) OF FIRST RESORT IS
WORRISOME/TROUBLESOME. 3-11-08 Suckers’ bear
market irrationally exuberant new EPHEMERAL bubble rally on fed fear and trembling panic move TO ADD $200 BILLION IN WORLDWIDE LIQUIDITY
BY TEMPORARILY REPLACING (28 DAYS) ONE TYPE OF FUNNY-MONEY (WORTHLESS SUBPRIME
COLLATERALIZED DEBT) WITH ANOTHER LONGER TERM WORTHLESS FUNNY-MONEY (U.S. DEBT
WHICH CAN’T BE PAID BACK) WHICH IS A GREAT B.S. TALKING POINT BUT JUST A DROP
IN THE BUCKET CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UNDISCLOSED WRITEDOWNS/WORTHLESS
PAPER BEING HELD(AND, CURING A BUBBLE WITH A NEW BUBBLE-I DON'T THINK SO), ONE
ANALYST POINTS TO THE HYPERINFLATIONARY EFFECTS OF TOO MUCH LIQUIDITY CHASING
TOO FEW GOODS AND MORE BAD NEWS TO COME IN TECH SECTOR AND EARNINGS ALONG WITH MORE
WRITEOFFS/WRITEDOWNS WITH WORSE TO COME/NO BOTTOM YET AND HE REMAINS A BEAR,
LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS ECONOMIST SAYS BAD BUT NOT TECHNICALLY RECESSION BASED
ON GOVERNMENT ELECTION-YEAR DATA (ONLY NUTS AND NUTS FROM THE LAND OF FRUITS
AND NUTS BELIEVE SAME) WHILE TWO OTHER ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH STRUCTURAL
PROBLEMS/HIGH INFLATION/LOWER DOLLAR AS FOREIGNERS/INVESTORS GET OUT OF
WORTHLESS DOLLAR WITH BIG TROUBLE FOR U.S. POST-ELECTION AS REALITY SETS IN,
TRADE GAP WIDENED, AND SMART MONEY WOULD SELL THIS RALLY/TAKE PROFITS. 3-10-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY,
NEW BANK DOWNGRADES, MORGAN SLASHES EARNINGS ESTIMATES FOR S&P AND SAYS
ALREADY IN RECESSION, EVEN MORE ECONOMISTS NOW SAY THE OBVIOUS/RECESSION, RUMOR
THAT BEAR STERNS WITH SUBSTANTIAL LIQUIDITY ISSUES IS GOING UNDER, DOLLAR DOWN,
EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT ON CITIBANK AND BANKOFAMERICA, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS (HYPERINFLATIONARY) HIGH ENERGY AND FOOD PRICES (CONVENIENTLY LEFT OUT OF
THE FED’S “TOUTED” CORE RATE) ARE SQUEEZING THE CONSUMER (AND HENCE,
CONSUMPTION/65% OF GDP) AND THAT COMMODITIES A BUBBLE AND MULTINATIONALS WITH
OVERSEAS EARNINGS/POSITVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO WEAKER DOLLAR PREFERRED, AN
OIL ANALYST SAYS $200 OIL POSSIBLE (REITERATING GOLDMAN) WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING
OF DOLLAR, ANOTHER ANALYST/JOURNALIST SAYS SELL DOLLAR DENOMINATED
STOCKS/SECURITIES/ASSETS WHICH HAVE MUCH FURTHER TO FALL AND REITERATES AS DID
BARRON’S THAT MORTGAGE INSURERS HAVE OVER $5 TRILLION IN DEBT/EXPOSURE AND THAT
MANY OF THE NATIONS BANKS ARE ALREADY INSOLVENT SO GET OUT OF THE DOLLAR AND
U.S. STOCKS. 3-7-08 BAD
EMPLOYMENT/JOBS DATA across ALL SECTORS AS 63,000 JOBS LOST WITH DOWNWARD
REVISIONS TO DECEMBER AND JANUARY (ACTUALLY LOST 20,000) JOBS NUMBERS, ONE
ANALYST SAYS WE’RE IN A RECESSION WHILE MORE ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH ONE
STATING THAT YOU ALMOST NEVER SEE BACK-TO-BACK MONTHLY DECLINE IN EMPLOYMENT
WITHOUT RECESSION AS NOW, DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOWS, CONSUMERS INCREASED
BORROWING TO STAY AFLOAT, WASHINGTON MUTUAL FURTHER DOWNGRADES, SUPPORT LEVELS
BROKEN TO THE DOWNSIDE, sentiment- 85% believe things will get worse. 3-6-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY
TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS
FLOWING. 23% INCREASE IN FORECLOSURES IN
FOURTH QUARTER NEW RECORD HIGH, DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOWS, 10% OF HOMES WITH 0
OR NEGATIVE EQUITY, MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION SAYS HOME FORECLOSURES AT
ALL-TIME HIGH AND GOING HIGHER, ONE R.E. ANALYST SAYS ROUGH YEAR AHEAD WITH
FORECLOSURES AND DEFAULTS UP, ONE ANALYST SAYS MARKET WILL TEST NEW
LOWS/SUPPORT LEVELS WITH FLIGHT TO “QUALITY”/TREASURIES, LENDER THORNBURG
DEFAULTS AND ALONG WITH WASHINGTON MUTUAL IS DOWNGRADED, CONTINUING CLAIMS FOR
UNEMPLOYMENT AT HIGH LEVELS MEANS COMPANIES SHRINKING, IGNORE KNEE-JERK
ELECTION YEAR GOVERNMENT HUNKY DORY FAKE REPORTS. 3-5-08 OIL INVENTORIES LESS THAN EXPECTED, FED
BEIGE BOOK CITES ECONOMIC WEAKNESS PARTICULARLY SINCE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR,
LABOR COSTS ROSE, RISING PRICE PRESSURES/STAGFLATION, RECESSION/BEAR MARKET,
ONE ANALYST SAYS TOUGH FIRST HALF RECOMMENDS MULTINATIONALS WITH 50% OVERSEAS
EARNINGS (FAVORABLE CURRENCY TRANSLATION) AND CONSUMER STAPLES/HEALTH
RELATED/DEFENSIVE STOCKS, AMBAC TO FLOAT STOCK TO SHORE UP BALANCE SHEET TO
TUNE OF $1.5 BILLION/DILUTION AND
SHARES FALL $2 TO $8.70, OIL ANALYST CITES DECLINE IN OIL
INVENTORIES/DIESEL/JET FUEL AND WEAK DOLLAR AND TOP $108-$110 BUT $120-$130 IF
VENEZUELA/COLUMBIA CONFLICT AND MORE RECORD HIGH GAS PRICES TO COME, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DECLINE IN REAL ESTATE/HOUSING WITH STARTS
DOWN 15-20-40% ON WELL DESERVED PESSIMISM/CREDIT CRUNCH. 3-4-08 Suckers’ bear market rally into the close
based on b**l s**t alone, viz., rumor/speculation about yet another bailout for
wall street/ambac/bond insurers and over 200 point swing to the upside based on
nothing whatsoever, one economist/analyst notes this is the deepest housing
decline since great depression, bernanke says another spike in foreclosures
ahead and proposes reduction of principal amounts in existing loans (sounds
like a plan…..riiiiight!), ken shreve finance editor investors business daily
says bear market 6-9 months/ don’t try to catch a falling knife as institutions
still selling/keep money safe in 3% money market for time being, one oil analyst
says oil higher before lower as expected rate cut will further weaken dollar
and drive up oil/commodities prices and problems in consumer debt in addition
to mortgages and nobody wants to hold dollars, 3-3-08 Suckers’ bear
market rally into the close, yes we are in a recession from someone who unlike
the frauds on wall street has read security analysis by graham, dodd, and
cottle and understands it (warren buffet), all news
negative, ie., ism manufacturing index down to 48.3 (contraction), car sales down
at gm (-12%) and ford (-7%), construction spending down most in 14 years, oil
analysts point to the new highs while economist/analyst says dollar has fallen
through all support levels meaning more bottoms to come, INFLATION OUTPACING
CONSUMER SPENDING (EVEN WITH SPENDING NUMBER HIGHER THAN EXPECTED WHICH
PROBABLY MEANS REALITY WAS NEGATIVE), CONSUMER CONFIDENCE/SENTIMENT DOWN
SHARPLY, CHICAGO MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN INDICATING CONTRACTION, $5.29 BILLION
LOSS FOR AIG ON WRITEOFFS, INTRA DAY HIGH FOR OIL OVER $103, INFLATION/WEAK
DOLLAR/ECONOMIC WEAKNESS=STAGFLATION, FOURTH MONTHLY DECLINE IN A ROW FOR STOCK
MARKET, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST IF NOT THEN ALMOST IN RECESSION WITH WORSE
INFLATION NEWS AND INFLATION ADJUSTED INCOME/SPENDING FLAT, ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS RECESSION AND CITES NEGATIVE SAVINGS RATE AND FURTHER ECONOMIC WEAKNESS,
ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED ECONOMIC WEAKNESS WITH FURTHER DOLLAR DECLINE SO BULLISH
ON METALS AND BEARISH ON STOCKS, AND YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS
INFLATION/RECESSION BUT NOT DEPRESSION…..RIIIIIGHT, GDP GROWTH REPORTED
MUCH LESS THAN EXPECTED (BUT CLOSER TO REALITY) AT MINISCULE .6%, UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS JUMP 19,000 TO
373,000 AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE POST KATRINA, BERNANKE SAYS CONSUMER WORSE OFF
THAN JUST AFTER 911(?) AND THAT SOME BANKS COULD (WILL) FAIL AND THAT
STAGFLATION WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS THE 70’S, FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC SHOW
MASSIVE LOSSES, ONE ANALYST 50 YEARS IN THE BUSINESS SEES RECESSION AND SAYS
FINANCIALS HAVE BECOME IMPENETRABLE IN TERMS OF ANALYSIS/LOSSES, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS WE’RE NOWHERE NEAR IMPROVEMENT IN R.E./HOUSING MARKET,
YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION WITH HIGHER INFLATION LOWER GROWTH
(STAGFLATION) AND THAT FED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN WRONG AND ONLY RECESSION TO BRING
DOWN INFLATION, new record LOW FOR
DOLLAR AGAINST EURO AND SWISS FRANC (AND EVEN WORTH LESS THAN THE LOWLY
CANADIAN LOONEY, ETC.) WHICH ALONG WITH DEFICIT SPENDING IS HYPERINFLATIONARY
AS OIL SEES NEW INTRADAY HIGH OF $102.64, SALES/ORDERS OF DURABLE GOODS DOWN
MORE THAN EXPECTED 5.3%, BERNANKE’S NEGATIVE COMMENTS ON GREENSPAN RECESSION
PROMISES RATE CUTS FOR NEW BUBBLE WHICH RALLIES STOCKS, ONE ANALYST SAYS BANKS
AS THEIR OWN INSURERS INCREASES RISK, ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DEFICIT
SPENDING INCREASES INFLATIONARY PROBLEMS/RISK, FORECLOSURES/BANK REPO’S UP 90%
YEAR OVER YEAR, REGULATORS PREDICT OVER 100 BANK FAILURES, FORECLOSURES UP 57%
IN JANUARY, WHOLESALE INFLATION UP MUCH HIGHER THAN EXPECTED 7.5% (CORE RATE
4+%), 9% DROP IN HOME VALUES/PRICES, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOWN TO 17 YEAR LOW,
ELECTION YEAR/PROTECT INCOMPETENT INCUMBENT GOV’T PRINTING WORTHLESS DOLLARS
LIKE MAD WITH EXCESS LIQUIDITY CHASING TOO FEW GOODS (IE., FOOD UP 6%, ETC.)
WHICH IS HYPER-INFLATIONARY, ECONOMIST/ANALYST DR. KELLNER SAYS EASIER
MONEY/FISCAL PACKAGE WON’T REFLATE HOUSING MARKET (RECESSION), ANOTHER ANALYST
SAYS IN BEAR MARKET/RECESSION RECOMMENDS DEFENSIVE/PREFERRED STOCKS/BONDS/CASH,
DR. SHILLER- CASE-SHILLER INDEX- HOME VALUES CONTINUED DECLINE AND IN OR ABOUT
TO ENTER RECESSION (that’s already here), Stiglitz
Blames Greenspan For Recession, IBM ON $15 BILLION BUYBACK AND JAWBONING
AND SIGNIFICANT OVERSEAS SALES (AND POSITIVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO THE
WORTHLESS DOLLAR) RALLIES MARKET (WHAT BULL S**T), SHARPLY LOWER AND MORE WORTHLESS DOLLAR/HIGH OIL PRICE RALLY
CREATES YET ANOTHER B.S. SWING OF OVER 200 POINTS TO THE UPSIDE, FOOD PRICES UP
6% ON ETHANOL CROWD-OUT, HOME SALES
DOWN 5.5% / MEDIAN SALES PRICE DOWN 4.6%, ONE R.E. EXPERT SAYS WITH SALES
FALLING AND FORECLOSURES RISING WORSE YET TO COME, LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
FELL FOR FOURTH MONTH IN A ROW (-.1%), PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX
UNEXPECTEDLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER (The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index fell
to a -24, indicating a sharp contraction in the region's manufacturing
activity. Economists had anticipated a reading of -10, a less pronounced
contraction. Last month the reading came in at -20.9.), ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS SIGNIFICANT INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT-STAGFLATION-AHEAD ALONG WITH
CONTINUED DEFLATION OF HOUSING BUBBLE WITH NATIONWIDE AVERAGE PRICE DECLINE OF
8-10% AND ANOTHER DECLINE OF 15-20% TO COME. MODEST DROP RELATIVE TO REALITY TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE
DOLLARS FLOWING. (3-27-08) (DOW
-120, NASDAQ -43, S&P -15) [CLOSE- OIL $107.58/ GOLD $948.80 / SILVER
$18.55 / PLATINUM $2,043.70 / DOLLAR= .63 EURO, 98 YEN, .4979 POUND STERLING,
ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.54%]. I WARNED AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I
WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL
ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED
SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL). GREAT
OPPORTUNITY TO SELL INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY (TAKE
PROFITS). REALITY: THIS IS A BEAR
MARKET IN A SECULAR BEAR MARKET IN A RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A SECULAR (AND QUITE
PERMANENT-THEY’VE MADE ALL THE WRONG CHOICES) ECONOMIC DOWNTREND IN THE U.S. ONE
ANALYST/REPORTER/ JOURNALIST FROM INSIDE SOURCES PEGS THE SUB-PRIME DOLLAR
VALUE OF THE SHILLED WORTHLESS PAPER AT $516 TRILLION (EVEN A PERCENTAGE OF
SAME RENDERS THE PROBLEM UNFIXABLE-HENCE, CULPABLE PARTIES MUST BE HELD
ACCOUNTABLE AND DISGORGE THEIR ILL-GOTTEN GAINS FROM, IE., COMMISSIONING
WORTHLESS PAPER, TAKING A POINT HERE OR THERE AND FRAUDULENTLY PASSING SAME ON,
AD INFINITUM, ETC.). Time to put the wall street among other corporate frauds
in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their ill-gotten
gains. [Please
note: I seldom name analysts/reporters/journalists bearing not so glad tidings
for fear they’ll be crucified by the frauds on wall street]. (3-26-08) (DOW -110, NASDAQ -17, S&P -12) [CLOSE- OIL $106/ GOLD $949.20 / SILVER $18.38 / PLATINUM $2,000 / DOLLAR= .6311 EURO, 98 YEN, .498 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.46%]. GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL (TAKE PROFITS) IN WHAT REMAINS OF THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY AS THE WALL STREET SCAM UNEARTHED BY REVELATION THAT OF 9 INVESTMENT VEHICLES S&P (MAJORITY ORF 401K HOLDINGS, ETC.) WAS WORST PERFORMER (1% OR LESS AND IF YOU FACTOR IN DECLINING DOLLAR, NEGATIVE RELATIVE TO NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED ALTERNATIVES OVER DECADE). OIL UP ON SUPPLY CONCERNS AND DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY. BANKING SECTOR DOWNGRADED CITING MORE WRITE-DOWNS AND –84% EARNINGS (CITI, ETC.). FACTORY ORDERS/DURABLES DOWN MORE THAN EXPECTED 1.75% AND NEW HOME SALES DOWN 1.8% ALONG WITH PRICE DECLINES (INCLUDING MEDIAN PRICE DECLINE). WSJ ARTICLE RAISES SPECTER OF FED BANKRUPTCY AND PUBLIC BAILOUT. ONE ANALYST CITES CITIBANK DIFFICULTIES, LBO TROUBLES (IE., CLEAR CHANNEL, ETC.), FED HOLDING JUNK PAPER, AND RECOMMENDS DEFENSIVE (IE., CONSUMER STAPLES, ETC.) POSTURE INCLUDING MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS (FAVORABLE CURRENCY TRANSLATION). OIL ANALYST SAYS RECORD OIL/ GAS PRICES (GAS UP ANOTHER 5-10 CENTS) AND CITES DECLINE IN REFINERY RUN, CONFLICT IN IRAQ, AND EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK’S FIGHT AGAINST INFLATION/LOWER DOLLAR AND SAYS NATURAL GAS AN INTERESTING PLAY. ONE REPORTER CITES DROP IN GAS SUPPLIES AND FINANCIAL SECTOR WRITEDOWNS. R.E. ANALYST POINTS TO SO. CAL. 400% INCREASE IN FORECLOSURES AND SAYS NO IMPROVEMENT UNTIL AT LEAST LATE 2008/EARLY 2009. CURRENCY EXPERT SAYS FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS WILL SURVIVE BUT WON’T BE LENDING, DOLLAR RISK TO THE DOWNSIDE, FED HOLDING BAD RESERVES, HOUSING MARKET TO CONTINUE DECLINE, AND FAVORS EURO. 3-25-08 GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL (TAKE PROFITS) THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY INTO THE CLOSE WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T AND NOTHING BUT BAD ECONOMIC NEWS AS WALL STREET FRAUDS ATTEMPT TO WINDOW DRESS REALISTICALLY DISMAL FIRST QUARTER NUMBERS TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND COMPUTERIZED PROGRAM TRADE COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING. DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY. earnings downgrade for merrill lynch/financials and reluctance to take mark-to-market loss (prompted bear bailout) scuttles(?) clear channel deal. GOVERNMENT HIRING NEW (FDIC) BANK REGULATORS FOR INCREASING BANK FAILURES. S&P CASE SHILLER INDEX REGISTERS SHARPEST HOUSING PRICE DECLINE ON RECORD AT –11.4%, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX DOWN TO 5 YR. LOW OF 65 WHICH IS SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW EXPECTED 73, AND EXPECTATIONS INDEX AT LOWEST SINCE 1973. KEN SHREVE OF IBD POINTS TO VOLUME (COMMISSION GENERATING COMPUTERIZED PROGRAMMED TRADES SIMULATING DEMAND) AS A GOOD SIGN…RIIIIIGHT…CITES SELLING PRESSURE ON THE WAY UP AND SAYS WAIT AND SEE AS NEW LEADERSHIP DEVELOPS…RIIIIIGHT (WHICH TRANSLATED MEANS HE DOESN’T KNOW WHERE THIS IRRATIONALLY EXUBERANT MARKET IS GOING. S&P CASE SHILLER ANALYST/VP SAYS HOME PRICES IN DECLINE WHICH ACCELERATED IN THE LAST 6-9 MONTHS AND SEES –20%/TROUGH IN LATE 2008. R.E. ANALYST DOESN’T SEE BOTTOM PARTICULARLY IN SO. CALIFORNIA (IE., LA, SAN DIEGO, ETC.) (MIAMI, LAS VEGAS, PHOENIX VERY BAD). AN ECONOMIST SAYS ANOTHER YEAR OF DECLINES SINCE CONSUMER SPENDING/CONFIDENCE HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY. CALIFORNIA BUREAUCRAT (THAT’S ALL THERE IS) SAYS TOUGH TIMES AHEAD, POINTS TO UPSIDE DOWN CONDITIONS (MORTGAGE LOANS GREATER THAN PROPERTY VALUES) AND SAYS HOUSE OF CARDS. ANOTHER ECONOMIST SAYS MORE EROSION ON THE PRICE SIDE,-20%, AND A WAYS TO GO. R.E. PROF. SAYS SLIDE TO CONTINUE UNTIL EXCESS SUPPLY IS CLEARED. 3-24-08 GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET/SHORT-COVERING RALLY (TAKE PROFITS) WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T AND NO REAL ECONOMIC NEWS AS WALL STREET FRAUDS IN LAST DITCH EFFORT TO WINDOW DRESS REALISTICALLY DISMAL FIRST QUARTER NUMBERS TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND COMPUTERIZED PROGRAM TRADE COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING. THE ELECTION-YEAR-INDUCED RALLY FAKE NEWS PUSHED BY THE WALL STREET FRAUDS IS A MEAGER TWO-FOLD; VIZ., EXISTING HOME SALES INCREASED (JAN.-FEB.) 2.9% EXCEEDING SUBSTANTIALLY ECONOMISTS’ PREDICTIONS AND J.P. MORGAN WILLING TO PAY $10 INSTEAD OF $2 PER SHARE FOR FAILED INVESTMENT BANK BEAR STEARNS. REALITY: INCREASED SALES DUE TO INCREASED FORECLOSURE SALES; PRICES DOWN 8.2%; MEDIAN HOME PRICE FELL MOST EVER ON RECORD; INCREASED BEAR MONEY TO PLACATE SHAREHOLDERS DESPERATE MOVE TO KEEP WORTHLESS SECURITIES FROM BEING DUMPED IN MARKET WHERE SAME CAN’T BE SOLD AND WHERE SUCH WOULD RESULT IN OTHER SUCH BEING MARKED TO MARKET (PENNIES ON A DOLLAR). ONE ANALYST SAYS NOTHING FUNDAMENTALLY HAS CHANGED, DAY TO DAY TRADING ON DAY’S NEWS AND TODAY A HAPPY (NON) NEWS DAY…RIIIIIGHT…AND RECOMMENDS FOR PROTECTION NON-U.S. ASSETS/SECURITIES, METALS, AND BIG CAP TECH/MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS (POSITIVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION). AN ECONOMIST SAYS THE FED’S CONFUSING DEAL PROTECTS ITS OWN MONEY BY ESSENTIALLY PROVIDING A “BRIDGE LOAN” TO PREVENT THE WORTHLESS SECURITIES FROM BEING DUMPED WHERE THERE IS NO MARKET FOR SAME CAUSING FURTHER WRITEDOWNS across THE BOARD ON MARK TO MARKET. ANOTHER ANALYST EMPHASIZES DISFUNCTIONAL BANKING/CONTINUED WRITEDOWNS/LOSSES/BALANCE SHEET PROBLEMS FOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS/WE’VE NOT SEEN THE BOTTOM, IN RECOMMENDING TAKING SOME PROFITS WITH ELECTION YEAR STIMULUS CREATING INFLATIONARY PROBLEMS, THOUGH STILL IN BEAR MARKET THE REAL DECLINE AND REAL RECESSION (WE’RE ALREADY IN RECESSION) TO COME POST ELECTION/2009 AND THE INTERMEDIATE TERM IS VERY SCARY. ONE R.E. ANALYST SAYS ONE THIRD OF EXISTING HOME SALES WERE FORECLOSURES WITH OVERSUPPLY OF PROPERTIES WHICH WILL TAKE A LONG TIME TO WORK OUT WHILE ANOTHER r.e. ANALYST SAYS YEARS TO WORK OUT WITH ONLY LIMITED IMPROVEMENT LATE 2009. 3-20-08 FULL MOON WITH OBVIOUS EFFECT ON LUNATIC WALL STREET FRAUDS. SMART MONEY WOULD SELL INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET/SHORT-COVERING RALLY (TAKE PROFITS) WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T AND EXCEEDINGLY BAD ECONOMIC NEWS VIZ., UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS UP MUCH MORE THAN EXPECTED 22,000 TO HIGH 378,000, CREDIT SWISSE TO REVISE PREVIOUS YEARS PROFITS DOWN ON FURTHER WRITEDOWNS, PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN, AND LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS DOWN FOR FIFTH MONTH IN A ROW WHICH HAS ALWAYS SIGNALED/INDICATED/PRECEDED ECONOMIC DOWNTURN/CONTRACTION/RECESSION. ONE SOMEWHAT SENILE ANALYST WELCOMED THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF FAKE/FIAT/PRINTED MONEY SAYING THE FINANCIALS WHICH HAVE LAGGED THE MARKET BY 20% WILL BE HELPED/INFLATED OUT OF THEIR DOLDRUMS (HYPERINFLATIONARY) BY SAME WHICH HE LIKES BECAUSE HE’S HEAVILY CONCENTRATED IN FINANCIALS (GREAT CALL) AND THAT THE MONEY HASN’T SHOWN UP YET BUT FAILS TO REALIZE THE U.S. HAS NEVER BEEN IN SUCH DIRE CIRCUMSTANCES ECONOMICALLY, FINANCIALLY, AND GEOPOLITICALLY AS NOW. A MORE RATIONAL VIEW BY ECONOMIST DR. IRVING KELLNER SAID STIMULUS THUS FAR TREATS SYMPTOMS WITH MERE BANDAIDS WHICH FAIL TO ADDRESS/CURE THE PROBLEM/CAUSE/DISEASE AND IS RATHER SIMPLISTIC TO A FAULT IN FOCUSING SOLELY ON HOUSING/REAL ESTATE VALUES ALTHOUGH CORRECTLY STATES THAT EASIER MONEY WILL NOT ENHANCE THE VALUE OF MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES WHICH REMAIN INDETERMINANT, DOWN, OR GOING DOWN AND ADVOCATES DEPRESSION ERA APPROACH SINCE HE CORRECTLY STATES ECONOMY HAS ALREADY (DECEMBER, 2007 OR JANUARY, 2008) ENTERED THE WORST RECESSION OF THE POST-WAR ERA (DESPITE ELECTION YEAR SPIN). ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS THIS IS A SHORT-COVERING RALLY AND AN OPPORTUNITY TO SELL/TAKE PROFITS (i TOTALLY AGREE), THAT THE FED DESPERATION MOVES INCLUDING PRINTING DOLLARS LIKE MAD HAVE LED TO A DEBASEMENT OF THE U.S. CURRENCY AND THAT THE DOLLAR WILL CONTINUE TO GO LOWER, THAT TRILLIONS HAVE BEEN BORROWED BUT THAT THEY WILL BE UNSUCCESSFUL IN REINFLATING THE BUBBLE, THAT THE FINANCIAL CRISIS IS NO WHERE NEAR BEING OVER WITH MUCH MORE CARNAGE TO COME, AND RECOMMENDS BEING TOTALLY OUT OF THE DOLLAR INCLUDING DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES AND INTO OTHER FOREIGN CURRENCIES/SECURITIES. 3-19-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY. I WARNED AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL). morgan stanley earnings down 40% but better than expected…..riiiiight…..on computerized bond/stock trading commissions. merrill lynch says more loan losses. one analyst says not much optimism regarding fed moves, deepening fears about economy, wall street stuck with a lot of stuff (ie., junk bonds, junk securities, junk derivatives, subprime mortgages, etc.) which can’t be sold except at firesale prices, avoid equities particularly small/midcaps, raise cash (taking profits/selling), looking for confirmation, entered recession in february but with inflation a very tough scenario. an oil analyst says commodity bubble bursting with profit-taking/path of least resistance but still record diesel at $4.21, record home heating oil $3.80 so wait and see. another analyst says emerging markets attractive relative to developed citing p/e multiple comparison but no save haven and points to further weakness in dollar relative to other currencies. metals analyst says rate cut less than expected and etfs (and computerized trading thereof) has propped demand. 3-18-08 Suckers’ bear market irrationally exuberant bubble rally on fed fear and trembling panic move TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING. I WARNED AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL). WHOLESALE/PRODUCER PRICES UP MORE THAN EXPECTED .3% WITH CORE RATE UP .5%. HOUSING STARTS DOWN 36% TO LOWEST LEVEL IN 17 YEARS. SHARPLY (MORE THAN 50%) LOWER EARNINGS AT GOLDMAN AND LEHMAN RALLIES THEIR STOCKS WITH FAMILIAR MANTRA ‘NOT AS BAD AS EXPECTED’…..RIIIIIGHT! DOLLAR DOWN AGAINST MOST CURRENCIES ON .75% PANIC CUT IN FED FUNDS RATE TO 2.25%. ONE ANALYST POINTS TO STRENGTH BY SECTOR, VIZ., FINANCIALS +8% (FOCUS OF THE BAILOUT), SMALL CAPS +5%, EMERGING MARKETS +5%, AND SAYS DOLLAR WILL BE BOTTOMING. AN OIL ANALYST SAYS OIL TO GO HIGHER WITH INFLUX OF SPECULATIVE NEW MONEY FROM RATE CUT. FORMER FED GOVERNOR GRAMLEY SAY WE’RE IN SERIOUS ECONOMIC CRISIS, IN RECESSION WITH ECONOMIC WEAKNESS SUFFICIENT TO MUTE DEMAND/SHARPER PRICE INCREASES, AND COMPARES ECONOMY TO CANCER PATIENT UNDERGOING NECESSARY CHEMOTHERAPY…..RIIIIIGHT….., FED HAS USED EMERGENCY POWERS NOT USED SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION BUT CAN’T RELY SOLELY ON THE FED. ANOTHER ANALYST TALKS IN TERMS OF TRADING ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS (FACT-THERE ARE HISTORICALLY VERY FEW SUCCESSFUL TRADERS), BELIEVES FED WENT TOO FAR W |
Current Topics 2006
Financial Lunacy 2006