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Wall Street Lunacy 2007
Full Moons, Fraud, and Lunatics. What More Can Be Said.Updates Through Current DateBackground to the Current Economic CrisisCurrent Market Numbers/Closing Prices From Yahoo
(3-31-08) (DOW +46, NASDAQ +17, S&P +7) [CLOSE- OIL
$101.65/ GOLD $922 / SILVER $17.31 / PLATINUM $2,006 / DOLLAR= .63 EURO, 99
YEN, .503 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD
3.41%]. eND OF FIRST QUARTER AND DOW –8%, nASDAQ-14%, AND S&P-10%. I
WARNED AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR
POWERS, I WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN
AGAINST INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO STRENGTH/TAKE
PROFITS/SELL). GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL (TAKE PROFITS) AS THE
WALL STREET SCAM IS UNEARTHED BY REVELATION THAT OF 9 INVESTMENT VEHICLES
S&P (MAJORITY OF 401K HOLDINGS, ETC.) WAS WORST PERFORMER (1% OR LESS AND
IF YOU FACTOR IN DECLINING DOLLAR, NEGATIVE RELATIVE TO NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED
ALTERNATIVES OVER DECADE). 5 REASONS WHY
THE FED HAS FAILED. MIDWEST
MANUFACTURING INDEX AT 48.2 INDICATES CONTRACTION BUT LESS SEVERE THAN EXPECTED…..RIIIIIGHT…..PROPOSAL
BY OF ALL PEOPLE A WALL STREET FRAUD NAMED PAULSON SEEKS TO ELIMINATE SEC BY MERGING
INTO SLOTHLIKE COMMODITIES ARM WITH NET EFFECT OF NO ENFORCEMENT OF EXISTING
LAWS/REGS AGAINST FRAUD WHICH IS NECESSARY (ALONG DISGORGEMENT OF THEIR
FRAUDULENT GAINS BY THE WALL STREET PERPETRATORS) ACCORDING TO WELL RESPECTED
ECONOMIST/ANALYST. THIS IS FIRST OVERALL SINCE GREAT DEPRESSION WHICH TELLS
VOLUMES ABOUT THE SEVERITY OF THE CRISIS YET SOLVES NOTHING. ONE ANALYST SAYS
EYES ON WRITEDOWNS TO COME. COMMENTATOR SAYS 1929 REVISITED YET REGS DO NOTHING
BUT ELIMINATE PROTECTIONS ACCORDED BY sec. ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST/AUTHOR/PROFESSOR SAYS NO ONE KNOWS HOW DEEP/DARK/AND LENGTH
OF CURRENT CRISIS, SO SEVERE REQUIRING EMERGENCY ACTION YET DOING NOTHING OF
SUBSTANCE AND THAT DOLLAR/DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES/ASSETS ARE HIGH RISK
AND RELATIVELY LOW RETURN. ANOTHER WELL RESPECTED ECONOMIST SAYS MUST USE
EXISTING LAWS AGINST FRAUD, PROSECUTE, AND GO AFTER THE HEDGE FUNDS. 3-28-08 freddie mac economist says housing prices
might continue to fall through 2010 as house prices fall 29%, orders for new
homes down 75%, and housing starts fall 9% to 50 year low. kb homes registers
$268 million loss and offers downbeat outlook on housing crisis while j.c.
penny on retail end offers equally bad outlook and worse than expected
quarterly results to come. consumer spending weakest in 17 months. fake core
inflation report is also meaningless (excludes food and energy) at tepid 2%.
consumer sentiment index at lowest since 1992, a 16 year low. frenzy over
j.p.morgan memo on how to beef up income on mortgage applications. s&p economist
says we’re in a recession and points to a very bumpy year ahead. one analyst
says troubled market/economy to continue and shorts stocks, is long on metals,
points to failed structured finance market, failed fed and globally recognized
folly of helicopter ben (bernanke), property continue down, dollar continue
downward slide, and bubble in emerging markets. one reporter examining
financial newsletters says vast majority bleak, pessimistic in their
outlook/forecasts. socal congressman says us hole getting bigger, deeper, and
darker and regarding the fed, too little too late, kind of like his
caleefornia. yet another analyst says we’re in a nationwide recession (he
previously had called california’s recession but stopped short of nationwide),
points to job losses, higher oil/gas prices, rising debt burdens and worse on
wall street than main street, not optimistic on real estate as foreclosures and
supply up with prices declining with early 2009 at best the trough, and that
there are other financial institutions in similar situation to that of bear
stearns. 3-27-08 GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL (TAKE
PROFITS) AS THE WALL STREET SCAM IS UNEARTHED BY REVELATION THAT OF 9
INVESTMENT VEHICLES S&P (MAJORITY OF 401K HOLDINGS, ETC.) WAS WORST
PERFORMER (1% OR LESS AND IF YOU FACTOR IN DECLINING DOLLAR, NEGATIVE RELATIVE
TO NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED ALTERNATIVES OVER DECADE). FOURTH QUARTER ECONOMIC GROWTH REVISED UPWARD TO
ANEMIC .6% (RIIIIIGHT…..SO THEY WON’T HAVE TO USE THE R FOR REALITY WORD
RECESSION). OIL UP ON SUPPLY CONCERNS AND DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY. UNEMPLOYMENT
CLAIMS AT HIGH 366,000 AND ORACLE DISAPPOINTS ON SALES AS MERRILL IS
DOWNGRADED. ONE ANALYST SAYS LEHMAN (-9%) BEARS EERIE SIMILARITIES TO BEAR
STEARNS, CITES SUBSTANTIAL NUMBER OF PUTS AND RUN ON BANKS WHICH WILL HELP
FOREIGN BANKS (IE., SWISS, ETC.), ALSO CAUTIONS ON DRUG SECTOR/SIDE EFFECTS.
OIL ANALYST EMPHASIZES $7 RUN IN TWO DAYS, BOMBING OF OIL SUPPLY LINE IN IRAQ,
WEAKER DOLLAR, LIQUIDITY CRISIS, IRAQ VIOLENCE, LOWER REFINERY RUNS AND SAYS
OIL/GAS PRICES HIGHER BEFORE LOWER. ONE ECONOMIST SAYS CREDIT CRISIS AND POINTS
TO PURCHASING POWER FAILURE AS BORROWED FUNDS (IE., HOME EQUITY, ETC.) ARE
DEPLETED AND WAGES LOWER, WHILE ANOTHER ECONOMIST WHO HAS ALREADY CALLED
RECESSION SEES MORE REGULATION FOR TROUBLED
INVESTMENT BANKS AS DISTINGUISHED FROM FDIC INSURED COMMERCIAL BANKS AND
SAYS CREDIT CRUNCH WILL CONTINUE. AIRLINE COMMENTATOR/ANALYST CITES OLDER
PLANES FOR PUBLICIZED PROBLEMS, SURCHARGES/HIGHER FUEL COSTS FOR HIGHER PRICES.
3-26-08 GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL (TAKE
PROFITS) IN WHAT REMAINS OF THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY AS THE WALL STREET
SCAM UNEARTHED BY REVELATION THAT OF 9 INVESTMENT VEHICLES S&P (MAJORITY OF
401K HOLDINGS, ETC.) WAS WORST PERFORMER (1% OR LESS AND IF YOU FACTOR IN
DECLINING DOLLAR, NEGATIVE RELATIVE TO NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED ALTERNATIVES OVER
DECADE). OIL UP ON SUPPLY CONCERNS AND DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY. BANKING
SECTOR DOWNGRADED CITING MORE WRITE-DOWNS AND –84% EARNINGS (CITI, ETC.).
FACTORY ORDERS/DURABLES DOWN MORE THAN EXPECTED 1.75% AND NEW HOME SALES DOWN
1.8% ALONG WITH PRICE DECLINES (INCLUDING MEDIAN PRICE DECLINE). WSJ ARTICLE
RAISES SPECTER OF FED BANKRUPTCY AND PUBLIC BAILOUT. ONE ANALYST CITES CITIBANK
DIFFICULTIES, LBO TROUBLES (IE., CLEAR CHANNEL, ETC.), FED HOLDING JUNK PAPER,
AND RECOMMENDS DEFENSIVE (IE., CONSUMER STAPLES, ETC.) POSTURE INCLUDING
MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS (FAVORABLE CURRENCY TRANSLATION). OIL
ANALYST SAYS RECORD OIL/ GAS PRICES (GAS UP ANOTHER 5-10 CENTS) AND CITES
DECLINE IN REFINERY RUN, CONFLICT IN IRAQ, AND EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK’S FIGHT
AGAINST INFLATION/LOWER DOLLAR AND SAYS NATURAL GAS AN INTERESTING PLAY. ONE
REPORTER CITES DROP IN GAS SUPPLIES AND FINANCIAL SECTOR WRITEDOWNS. R.E.
ANALYST POINTS TO SO. CAL. 400% INCREASE IN FORECLOSURES AND SAYS NO
IMPROVEMENT UNTIL AT LEAST LATE 2008/EARLY 2009. CURRENCY EXPERT SAYS FINANCIAL
INSTITUTIONS WILL SURVIVE BUT WON’T BE LENDING, DOLLAR RISK TO THE DOWNSIDE,
FED HOLDING BAD RESERVES, HOUSING MARKET TO CONTINUE DECLINE, AND FAVORS EURO. 3-25-08 GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL (TAKE
PROFITS) THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY INTO THE CLOSE WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T AND NOTHING BUT BAD ECONOMIC NEWS AS WALL
STREET FRAUDS ATTEMPT TO WINDOW DRESS
REALISTICALLY DISMAL FIRST QUARTER NUMBERS TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND
COMPUTERIZED PROGRAM TRADE COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING. DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY.
earnings downgrade for merrill lynch/financials and reluctance to take
mark-to-market loss (prompted bear bailout) scuttles(?) clear channel deal.
GOVERNMENT HIRING NEW (FDIC) BANK REGULATORS FOR INCREASING BANK FAILURES.
S&P CASE SHILLER INDEX REGISTERS SHARPEST HOUSING PRICE DECLINE ON RECORD
AT –11.4%, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX DOWN TO 5 YR. LOW OF 65 WHICH IS
SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW EXPECTED 73, AND EXPECTATIONS INDEX AT LOWEST SINCE 1973.
KEN SHREVE OF IBD POINTS TO VOLUME (COMMISSION GENERATING COMPUTERIZED
PROGRAMMED TRADES SIMULATING DEMAND) AS A GOOD SIGN…RIIIIIGHT…CITES SELLING
PRESSURE ON THE WAY UP AND SAYS WAIT AND SEE AS NEW LEADERSHIP DEVELOPS…RIIIIIGHT
(WHICH TRANSLATED MEANS HE DOESN’T KNOW WHERE THIS IRRATIONALLY EXUBERANT
MARKET IS GOING. S&P CASE SHILLER ANALYST/VP SAYS HOME PRICES IN DECLINE
WHICH ACCELERATED IN THE LAST 6-9 MONTHS AND SEES –20%/TROUGH IN LATE 2008.
R.E. ANALYST DOESN’T SEE BOTTOM PARTICULARLY IN SO. CALIFORNIA (IE., LA, SAN
DIEGO, ETC.) (MIAMI, LAS VEGAS, PHOENIX VERY BAD). AN ECONOMIST SAYS ANOTHER
YEAR OF DECLINES SINCE CONSUMER SPENDING/CONFIDENCE HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY.
CALIFORNIA BUREAUCRAT (THAT’S ALL THERE IS) SAYS TOUGH TIMES AHEAD, POINTS TO
UPSIDE DOWN CONDITIONS (MORTGAGE LOANS GREATER THAN PROPERTY VALUES) AND SAYS
HOUSE OF CARDS. ANOTHER ECONOMIST SAYS MORE EROSION ON THE PRICE SIDE,-20%, AND
A WAYS TO GO. R.E. PROF. SAYS SLIDE TO CONTINUE UNTIL EXCESS SUPPLY IS CLEARED.
3-24-08 GREAT
OPPORTUNITY TO SELL INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET/SHORT-COVERING RALLY
(TAKE PROFITS) WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T
AND NO REAL ECONOMIC NEWS AS WALL STREET FRAUDS IN LAST DITCH EFFORT TO WINDOW
DRESS REALISTICALLY DISMAL FIRST QUARTER NUMBERS TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED
AND COMPUTERIZED PROGRAM TRADE COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING. THE
ELECTION-YEAR-INDUCED RALLY FAKE NEWS PUSHED BY THE WALL STREET FRAUDS IS A
MEAGER TWO-FOLD; VIZ., EXISTING HOME SALES INCREASED (JAN.-FEB.) 2.9% EXCEEDING
SUBSTANTIALLY ECONOMISTS’ PREDICTIONS AND J.P. MORGAN WILLING TO PAY $10
INSTEAD OF $2 PER SHARE FOR FAILED INVESTMENT BANK BEAR STEARNS. REALITY:
INCREASED SALES DUE TO INCREASED FORECLOSURE SALES; PRICES DOWN 8.2%; MEDIAN
HOME PRICE FELL MOST EVER ON RECORD; INCREASED BEAR MONEY TO PLACATE
SHAREHOLDERS DESPERATE MOVE TO KEEP WORTHLESS SECURITIES FROM BEING DUMPED IN
MARKET WHERE SAME CAN’T BE SOLD AND WHERE SUCH WOULD RESULT IN OTHER SUCH BEING
MARKED TO MARKET (PENNIES ON A DOLLAR). ONE ANALYST SAYS NOTHING FUNDAMENTALLY
HAS CHANGED, DAY TO DAY TRADING ON DAY’S NEWS AND TODAY A HAPPY (NON) NEWS
DAY…RIIIIIGHT…AND RECOMMENDS FOR PROTECTION NON-U.S. ASSETS/SECURITIES, METALS,
AND BIG CAP TECH/MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS (POSITIVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION).
AN ECONOMIST SAYS THE FED’S CONFUSING DEAL PROTECTS ITS OWN MONEY BY
ESSENTIALLY PROVIDING A “BRIDGE LOAN” TO PREVENT THE WORTHLESS SECURITIES FROM
BEING DUMPED WHERE THERE IS NO MARKET FOR SAME CAUSING FURTHER WRITEDOWNS
across THE BOARD ON MARK TO MARKET. ANOTHER ANALYST EMPHASIZES DISFUNCTIONAL
BANKING/CONTINUED WRITEDOWNS/LOSSES/BALANCE SHEET PROBLEMS FOR FINANCIAL
INSTITUTIONS/WE’VE NOT SEEN THE BOTTOM, IN RECOMMENDING TAKING SOME PROFITS
WITH ELECTION YEAR STIMULUS CREATING INFLATIONARY PROBLEMS, THOUGH STILL IN
BEAR MARKET THE REAL DECLINE AND REAL RECESSION (WE’RE ALREADY IN RECESSION) TO
COME POST ELECTION/2009 AND THE INTERMEDIATE TERM IS VERY SCARY. ONE R.E.
ANALYST SAYS ONE THIRD OF EXISTING HOME SALES WERE FORECLOSURES WITH OVERSUPPLY
OF PROPERTIES WHICH WILL TAKE A LONG TIME TO WORK OUT WHILE ANOTHER r.e.
ANALYST SAYS YEARS TO WORK OUT WITH ONLY LIMITED IMPROVEMENT LATE 2009. 3-20-08 FULL
MOON WITH OBVIOUS EFFECT ON LUNATIC WALL STREET FRAUDS. SMART MONEY
WOULD SELL INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET/SHORT-COVERING RALLY (TAKE PROFITS)
WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T AND EXCEEDINGLY BAD ECONOMIC NEWS VIZ.,
UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS UP MUCH MORE THAN EXPECTED 22,000 TO HIGH 378,000, CREDIT
SWISSE TO REVISE PREVIOUS YEARS PROFITS DOWN ON FURTHER WRITEDOWNS,
PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN,
AND LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS DOWN FOR FIFTH MONTH IN A ROW WHICH HAS
ALWAYS SIGNALED/INDICATED/PRECEDED ECONOMIC DOWNTURN/CONTRACTION/RECESSION. ONE
SOMEWHAT SENILE ANALYST WELCOMED THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF FAKE/FIAT/PRINTED MONEY
SAYING THE FINANCIALS WHICH HAVE LAGGED THE MARKET BY 20% WILL BE
HELPED/INFLATED OUT OF THEIR DOLDRUMS (HYPERINFLATIONARY) BY SAME WHICH HE
LIKES BECAUSE HE’S HEAVILY CONCENTRATED IN FINANCIALS (GREAT CALL) AND THAT THE
MONEY HASN’T SHOWN UP YET BUT FAILS TO REALIZE THE U.S. HAS NEVER BEEN IN SUCH
DIRE CIRCUMSTANCES ECONOMICALLY, FINANCIALLY, AND GEOPOLITICALLY AS NOW. A MORE
RATIONAL VIEW BY ECONOMIST DR. IRVING KELLNER SAID STIMULUS THUS FAR TREATS
SYMPTOMS WITH MERE BANDAIDS WHICH FAIL TO ADDRESS/CURE THE
PROBLEM/CAUSE/DISEASE AND IS RATHER SIMPLISTIC TO A FAULT IN FOCUSING SOLELY ON
HOUSING/REAL ESTATE VALUES ALTHOUGH CORRECTLY STATES THAT EASIER MONEY WILL NOT
ENHANCE THE VALUE OF MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES WHICH REMAIN INDETERMINANT,
DOWN, OR GOING DOWN AND ADVOCATES DEPRESSION ERA APPROACH SINCE HE CORRECTLY
STATES ECONOMY HAS ALREADY (DECEMBER,
2007 OR JANUARY, 2008) ENTERED THE WORST RECESSION OF THE POST-WAR ERA (DESPITE
ELECTION YEAR SPIN). ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS THIS IS A SHORT-COVERING RALLY AND AN
OPPORTUNITY TO SELL/TAKE PROFITS (i TOTALLY AGREE), THAT THE FED DESPERATION
MOVES INCLUDING PRINTING DOLLARS LIKE MAD
HAVE LED TO A DEBASEMENT OF THE U.S. CURRENCY AND THAT THE DOLLAR WILL
CONTINUE TO GO LOWER, THAT TRILLIONS HAVE BEEN BORROWED BUT THAT THEY WILL BE
UNSUCCESSFUL IN REINFLATING THE BUBBLE, THAT THE FINANCIAL CRISIS IS NO WHERE
NEAR BEING OVER WITH MUCH MORE CARNAGE TO COME, AND RECOMMENDS BEING TOTALLY
OUT OF THE DOLLAR INCLUDING DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES AND INTO OTHER
FOREIGN CURRENCIES/SECURITIES. 3-19-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO
REALITY. I WARNED AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA
BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I
WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL
INTO STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL). morgan stanley earnings down 40% but better
than expected…..riiiiight…..on computerized bond/stock trading commissions.
merrill lynch says more loan losses. one analyst says not much optimism
regarding fed moves, deepening fears about economy, wall street stuck with a
lot of stuff (ie., junk bonds, junk securities, junk derivatives, subprime
mortgages, etc.) which can’t be sold except at firesale prices, avoid equities
particularly small/midcaps, raise cash (taking profits/selling), looking for
confirmation, entered recession in february but with inflation a very tough
scenario. an oil analyst says commodity bubble bursting with profit-taking/path
of least resistance but still record diesel at $4.21, record home heating oil
$3.80 so wait and see. another analyst says emerging markets attractive
relative to developed citing p/e multiple comparison but no save haven and
points to further weakness in dollar relative to other currencies. metals
analyst says rate cut less than expected and etfs (and computerized trading
thereof) has propped demand. 3-18-08 Suckers’
bear market irrationally exuberant bubble rally on fed fear and trembling panic
move TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION
TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING. I WARNED
AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I
WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST
INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO
STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL). WHOLESALE/PRODUCER
PRICES UP MORE THAN EXPECTED .3% WITH CORE RATE UP .5%. HOUSING STARTS DOWN 36%
TO LOWEST LEVEL IN 17 YEARS. SHARPLY (MORE THAN 50%) LOWER EARNINGS AT GOLDMAN AND
LEHMAN RALLIES THEIR STOCKS WITH FAMILIAR MANTRA ‘NOT AS BAD AS
EXPECTED’…..RIIIIIGHT! DOLLAR DOWN AGAINST MOST CURRENCIES ON .75% PANIC CUT IN
FED FUNDS RATE TO 2.25%. ONE ANALYST POINTS TO STRENGTH BY SECTOR, VIZ.,
FINANCIALS +8% (FOCUS OF THE BAILOUT), SMALL CAPS +5%, EMERGING MARKETS +5%,
AND SAYS DOLLAR WILL BE BOTTOMING. AN OIL ANALYST SAYS OIL TO GO HIGHER WITH
INFLUX OF SPECULATIVE NEW MONEY FROM RATE CUT. FORMER FED GOVERNOR GRAMLEY SAY
WE’RE IN SERIOUS ECONOMIC CRISIS, IN RECESSION WITH ECONOMIC WEAKNESS
SUFFICIENT TO MUTE DEMAND/SHARPER PRICE INCREASES, AND COMPARES ECONOMY TO
CANCER PATIENT UNDERGOING NECESSARY CHEMOTHERAPY…..RIIIIIGHT….., FED HAS USED
EMERGENCY POWERS NOT USED SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION BUT CAN’T RELY SOLELY ON
THE FED. ANOTHER ANALYST TALKS IN TERMS OF TRADING ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS
(FACT-THERE ARE HISTORICALLY VERY FEW SUCCESSFUL TRADERS), BELIEVES FED WENT
TOO FAR WITH RATE CUT AND SEES SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM WITH INFLATION, THUMBS UP
FOR METALS/OIL AND LARGE CAP TECH WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS, BUT FURTHER CAUTIONS
OWING TO NEGATIVE REAL INTEREST RATES (RATES LESS THAN INFLATION, RISK,
ECONOMIC FACTORS/PREMIUMS). FINALLY, THINGS ARE SO HUNKY DORY THAT AS REPORTED
BY CONTINENTAL COIN AND JEWELRY PEOPLE ARE PULLING THEIR TEETH, EXTRACTING AND
SELLING THE GOLD. LOVELY! 3-17-08 LUNATIC/FRAUDS
200+ point computerized BUY PROGRAM suckers’ bear market/short-covering rally
to the upside based upon nothing whatsoever that hasn’t already been discounted
(ie., more rate cuts by fed in panic mode, etc.). I WARNED AGAINST THE
DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF
THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN
DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO STRENGTH/TAKE
PROFITS/SELL). INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FELL A GREATER THAN EXPECTED ONE-HALF OF
1%. ONE ANALYST CITES NEW LOWS FOR DOLLAR AND SUBSTANTIAL MOVE BY FED ALREADY
DISCOUNTED (.75%). ANOTHER ANALYST CITES WEAKER DOLLAR AND SLOWER ECONOMY
IMPACTING DEMAND (IE., FOR GOODS, ETC., AND HENCE, COMMODITY PRICES, HENCE
LOWER OIL PRICE THIS DAY), CITES THIS DAYS SHORT-COVERING RALLY AND
RECOMEMMENDS MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS (POSITIVE CURRENCY
TRANSLATION) AND OVERSEAS NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES (UTILITIES, ETC.).
YET aNOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST CITES BUSINESS MODELS COMPARABLE TO BEAR STEARNS
IN FINANCIAL SECTOR(PROBLEMS WITH HEDGE FUNDS/INVESTMENT BANKS) WHICH HAS
PROVEN INABILITY TO MANAGE THEIR OWN AFFAIRS SAYING DEREGULATION A DISASTER AND
REREGULATION A CURE, NO END TO FALL IN DOLLAR AS US BECOMES WORLD’S BEGGAR, AND
RECOMMENDS NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES (IE., EURO, SWISS FRANC, ETC., AND
EMERGING FAR EAST MARKETS). aNOTHER MORE CALIFORNIA/SENILE, ANALYST/BROKER WHO
LIKE OTHERS HAVE LOST SUBSTANTIAL MONIES FOR CLIENTS CITES LACK OF OF
TRANSPARENCY AS VALUE OF HIS BUYS AND HOLDS CONTINUES TO FALL WITH DOLLAR BUT
TALKS SOME SPECULATIVE BUYS AND CASH. A FINANCIAL TIMES EDITOR SAYS NO BOTTOM
YET, THAT BY HISTORICAL STANDARDS THE SCENARIO IS QUITE BAD FOR THE US, THAT
BEAR STEARNS WAS NOT ALONE AMONG US FIRMS IN THEIR PROBLEMS, THAT THE MARKET IS
EXPECTING 1% PANIC CUT BY FED, AND THAT THE US ECONOMY IS IN DEEP TROUBLE. 3-14-08 early surge based
on false benign inflation report (showing no change in retail inflation) from
the government gives way to reality that they can’t cover up/lie about (despite
intra-day suckers rally) when there is a run on large wall street investment
bank bear stearns (first such since the great depression) which cites liquidity
crisis as ny fed and jp morgan intervene with 28 day loan as bear is holding
high risk (worthless) assets which are illiquid (thinly traded/can’t be sold)
as reserves (they are not alone in this regard among the frauds on wallstreet,
etc., and only 2 days ago bear said balance sheet stable), all time lows for
the dollar, wsj reports majority of economists think we’re in recession,
michigan (non-washington non-fed gov’t report) sentiment index at new 16 year
low. One ANALYST SAYS DOLLAR WEAKNESS/LOWER YIELDS/ECONOMIC CONCERNS WILL
CONTINUE DOWNWARD TREND, INFLATION REPORT SURPRISE/FOOLISH AND HIGHER INFLATION
NUMBER FOR MARCH, CRESCENDO OF BAD NEWS IN COMING WEEK AND LOOK FOR NEW
LOWS/BOTTOM(?). OIL ANALYST CITES WEAK DOLLAR/EASY MONEY FLOWS AND SAYS LOOK FOR
OIL AT $120-$125. ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS ITS TOO LATE FOR FED TO TURN THIS
WRITEDOWN/SUBPRIME/ECONOMIC DOWNTURN AROUND WITH BEAR ANOTHER $35-$70 BILLION
BAD AND WHAT AFTER 28 DAY LOAN-EXPECT TAKEOVER/NO MORE BEAR STEARNS. 3-13-08 SMART MONEY WOULD SELL INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY (TAKE
PROFITS) WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T ALONE (NOTHING WHATSOEVER) AS STANDARD
AND POORS ANALYST SAYS THE END OF WRITEDOWNS MIGHT (BUT NOT QUITE) BE IN
SIGHT (WHICH IS LIKE THAT BROKER WHO
SELLS STOCKS FOR A LIVING SAYING HE’S TRYING TO KEEP CLIENTS IN STOCKS BECAUSE
AT SOME POINT THEY’LL GO UP)…RIIIIIGHT….. WHICH IS MEANINGLESS COMING FROM
STANDARD AND POORS WHICH SHOULD BE ACCOUNTABLE/LIABLE (FOR THIS FRAUD) ALONG
WITH THE FRAUDS ON WALL STREET, ETC., FOR THE TRIPLE A RATED SECURITIES ON THE
BOOKS WHICH EVERYONE KNOWS ARE IN FACT NOT TRIPLE A (WORTHLESS JUNK BONDS,
ASSETS, ETC.) SPURRING 200+ POINT SWING TO THE UPSIDE. VAST MAJORITY OF
ECONOMISTS NOW SAY WE’RE IN RECESSION (EVEN DESPITE ELECTION YEAR GIMMICKS-AS GOOD
AS GETS). RETAIL SALES DOWN MORE THAN EXPECTED .6%, FORECLOSURES UP 60% YEAR
OVER YEAR, DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY. ONE ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED
UNEMPLOYMENT/EMPLOYMENT WEAKNESS, PREMATURE TO SAY AS DID S&P THAT WE’RE
NEAR END OF WRITEDOWNS, MAJORITY OF ECONOMISTS NOW SAY WE’RE IN RECESSION,
HOUSING DOWNTURN MUCH FURTHER TO GO, VERY DEFENSIVE AS STOCKS CONTINUE TO HIT
NEW LOWS IN LARGE NUMBERS, WORST OF HOUSING CRISIS AHEAD, AND THIS IS A BEAR
MARKET IN A RECESSION ECONOMY. ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS U.S. CURRENT
ACCOUNT DEFICITS, LACK OF TRUST IN U.S. FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND TRIPLE A
RATINGS (BONDS, ETC., WHICH EVERYONE KNOWS ARE NOT), BANKS’ NEED FOR
RECAPITALIZATION, LOW SAVINGS (IE., CONSUMERS USING IE., GIFT CARDS FOR
GROCERIES, ETC.), FED LOSING CREDIBILITY BY FLIP-FLOPS/WRONG MOVES, AND SEES
ONLY SHORT-COVERING RALLIES AT BEST. VENEZUELA SHIFT TO PAYMENT IN EUROS FOR
OIL OUT OF DOLLARS. YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST SAYS WITH MONEY SUPPLY INCREASING AT
EXORBITANT 27% PER ANNUM, CITING ECONOMIST FRIEDMAN SAYS HYPER-INFLATIONARY
(CONTRARY TO LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS ECONOMISTS WHO THIS DAY SEE LAND OF FRUITS
AND NUTS REAL ESTATE DOWN 17.6%, SALES DOWN 40-45%, AND MEDIAN HOME PRICES DOWN
$100,000, AND BUDGET DEFICITS ACROSS THE BOARD). 3-12-08 VERY MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY,
DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY ON PANICKY FED KNEE JERK FUNNY MONEY ACTION, ONE
ANALYST/BROKER WHO SELLS STOCKS FOR A LIVING SAYS HE’S TRYING TO KEEP CLIENTS
IN STOCKS BECAUSE AT SOME POINT THEY’LL GO UP…..RIIIIIGHT…..REFERENCES THAT THIS
IS WORST R.E. DOWNTURN IN 100 YEARS AND NO BOTTOM YET IN R.E. AND WSJ SAYS
WORSE TO COME IN BAD PAPER (WRITEDOWNS, ETC.), AN OIL ANALYST SAYS RECORD HIGH
OIL PRICES ARE HEDGE AGAINST FALLING DOLLAR WITH A LOT OF DOLLARS RELATIVE TO
GOODS (AS IE., OIL, OTHER COMMODITIES, ETC.-HYPERINFLATION) AND IF YOU HOLD
DOLLARS/DOLLAR DENOMINATED ASSETS/SECURITIES YOU LOSE VALUE AND SEES $4.00 GAS
NATIONWIDE WITH RECORD DIESEL, WHILE ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS THAT SEEING FED GO
FROM LENDER OF LAST RESORT TO LENDER (PRINTER) OF FIRST RESORT IS
WORRISOME/TROUBLESOME. 3-11-08 Suckers’ bear
market irrationally exuberant new EPHEMERAL bubble rally on fed fear and trembling panic move TO ADD $200 BILLION IN WORLDWIDE LIQUIDITY
BY TEMPORARILY REPLACING (28 DAYS) ONE TYPE OF FUNNY-MONEY (WORTHLESS SUBPRIME
COLLATERALIZED DEBT) WITH ANOTHER LONGER TERM WORTHLESS FUNNY-MONEY (U.S. DEBT
WHICH CAN’T BE PAID BACK) WHICH IS A GREAT B.S. TALKING POINT BUT JUST A DROP
IN THE BUCKET CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UNDISCLOSED WRITEDOWNS/WORTHLESS
PAPER BEING HELD(AND, CURING A BUBBLE WITH A NEW BUBBLE-I DON'T THINK SO), ONE
ANALYST POINTS TO THE HYPERINFLATIONARY EFFECTS OF TOO MUCH LIQUIDITY CHASING
TOO FEW GOODS AND MORE BAD NEWS TO COME IN TECH SECTOR AND EARNINGS ALONG WITH
MORE WRITEOFFS/WRITEDOWNS WITH WORSE TO COME/NO BOTTOM YET AND HE REMAINS A
BEAR, LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS ECONOMIST SAYS BAD BUT NOT TECHNICALLY RECESSION
BASED ON GOVERNMENT ELECTION-YEAR DATA (ONLY NUTS AND NUTS FROM THE LAND OF
FRUITS AND NUTS BELIEVE SAME) WHILE TWO OTHER ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH
STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS/HIGH INFLATION/LOWER DOLLAR AS FOREIGNERS/INVESTORS GET OUT
OF WORTHLESS DOLLAR WITH BIG TROUBLE FOR U.S. POST-ELECTION AS REALITY SETS IN,
TRADE GAP WIDENED, AND SMART MONEY WOULD SELL THIS RALLY/TAKE PROFITS. 3-10-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY,
NEW BANK DOWNGRADES, MORGAN SLASHES EARNINGS ESTIMATES FOR S&P AND SAYS
ALREADY IN RECESSION, EVEN MORE ECONOMISTS NOW SAY THE OBVIOUS/RECESSION, RUMOR
THAT BEAR STERNS WITH SUBSTANTIAL LIQUIDITY ISSUES IS GOING UNDER, DOLLAR DOWN,
EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT ON CITIBANK AND BANKOFAMERICA, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS (HYPERINFLATIONARY) HIGH ENERGY AND FOOD PRICES (CONVENIENTLY LEFT OUT OF
THE FED’S “TOUTED” CORE RATE) ARE SQUEEZING THE CONSUMER (AND HENCE,
CONSUMPTION/65% OF GDP) AND THAT COMMODITIES A BUBBLE AND MULTINATIONALS WITH
OVERSEAS EARNINGS/POSITVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO WEAKER DOLLAR PREFERRED, AN
OIL ANALYST SAYS $200 OIL POSSIBLE (REITERATING GOLDMAN) WITH CONTINUED
WEAKENING OF DOLLAR, ANOTHER ANALYST/JOURNALIST SAYS SELL DOLLAR DENOMINATED
STOCKS/SECURITIES/ASSETS WHICH HAVE MUCH FURTHER TO FALL AND REITERATES AS DID
BARRON’S THAT MORTGAGE INSURERS HAVE OVER $5 TRILLION IN DEBT/EXPOSURE AND THAT
MANY OF THE NATIONS BANKS ARE ALREADY INSOLVENT SO GET OUT OF THE DOLLAR AND
U.S. STOCKS. 3-7-08 BAD
EMPLOYMENT/JOBS DATA across ALL SECTORS AS 63,000 JOBS LOST WITH DOWNWARD
REVISIONS TO DECEMBER AND JANUARY (ACTUALLY LOST 20,000) JOBS NUMBERS, ONE
ANALYST SAYS WE’RE IN A RECESSION WHILE MORE ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH ONE
STATING THAT YOU ALMOST NEVER SEE BACK-TO-BACK MONTHLY DECLINE IN EMPLOYMENT
WITHOUT RECESSION AS NOW, DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOWS, CONSUMERS INCREASED
BORROWING TO STAY AFLOAT, WASHINGTON MUTUAL FURTHER DOWNGRADES, SUPPORT LEVELS
BROKEN TO THE DOWNSIDE, sentiment- 85% believe things will get worse. 3-6-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY
TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS
FLOWING. 23% INCREASE IN FORECLOSURES IN
FOURTH QUARTER NEW RECORD HIGH, DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOWS, 10% OF HOMES WITH 0
OR NEGATIVE EQUITY, MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION SAYS HOME FORECLOSURES AT
ALL-TIME HIGH AND GOING HIGHER, ONE R.E. ANALYST SAYS ROUGH YEAR AHEAD WITH
FORECLOSURES AND DEFAULTS UP, ONE ANALYST SAYS MARKET WILL TEST NEW
LOWS/SUPPORT LEVELS WITH FLIGHT TO “QUALITY”/TREASURIES, LENDER THORNBURG
DEFAULTS AND ALONG WITH WASHINGTON MUTUAL IS DOWNGRADED, CONTINUING CLAIMS FOR
UNEMPLOYMENT AT HIGH LEVELS MEANS COMPANIES SHRINKING, IGNORE KNEE-JERK ELECTION
YEAR GOVERNMENT HUNKY DORY FAKE REPORTS. 3-5-08 OIL INVENTORIES LESS THAN EXPECTED, FED
BEIGE BOOK CITES ECONOMIC WEAKNESS PARTICULARLY SINCE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR,
LABOR COSTS ROSE, RISING PRICE PRESSURES/STAGFLATION, RECESSION/BEAR MARKET,
ONE ANALYST SAYS TOUGH FIRST HALF RECOMMENDS MULTINATIONALS WITH 50% OVERSEAS
EARNINGS (FAVORABLE CURRENCY TRANSLATION) AND CONSUMER STAPLES/HEALTH
RELATED/DEFENSIVE STOCKS, AMBAC TO FLOAT STOCK TO SHORE UP BALANCE SHEET TO
TUNE OF $1.5 BILLION/DILUTION AND SHARES
FALL $2 TO $8.70, OIL ANALYST CITES DECLINE IN OIL INVENTORIES/DIESEL/JET FUEL
AND WEAK DOLLAR AND TOP $108-$110 BUT $120-$130 IF VENEZUELA/COLUMBIA CONFLICT
AND MORE RECORD HIGH GAS PRICES TO COME, ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS
CONTINUED DECLINE IN REAL ESTATE/HOUSING WITH STARTS DOWN 15-20-40% ON WELL
DESERVED PESSIMISM/CREDIT CRUNCH. 3-4-08 Suckers’ bear
market rally into the close based on b**l s**t alone, viz., rumor/speculation
about yet another bailout for wall street/ambac/bond insurers and over 200
point swing to the upside based on nothing whatsoever, one economist/analyst
notes this is the deepest housing decline since great depression, bernanke says
another spike in foreclosures ahead and proposes reduction of principal amounts
in existing loans (sounds like a plan…..riiiiight!), ken shreve finance editor
investors business daily says bear market 6-9 months/ don’t try to catch a
falling knife as institutions still selling/keep money safe in 3% money market
for time being, one oil analyst says oil higher before lower as expected rate
cut will further weaken dollar and drive up oil/commodities prices and problems
in consumer debt in addition to mortgages and nobody wants to hold dollars, 3-3-08 Suckers’ bear
market rally into the close, yes we are in a recession from someone who unlike
the frauds on wall street has read security analysis by graham, dodd, and
cottle and understands it (warren buffet), all news
negative, ie., ism manufacturing index down to 48.3 (contraction), car sales
down at gm (-12%) and ford (-7%), construction spending down most in 14 years,
oil analysts point to the new highs while economist/analyst says dollar has
fallen through all support levels meaning more bottoms to come, INFLATION
OUTPACING CONSUMER SPENDING (EVEN WITH SPENDING NUMBER HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
WHICH PROBABLY MEANS REALITY WAS NEGATIVE), CONSUMER CONFIDENCE/SENTIMENT DOWN
SHARPLY, CHICAGO MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN INDICATING CONTRACTION, $5.29 BILLION
LOSS FOR AIG ON WRITEOFFS, INTRA DAY HIGH FOR OIL OVER $103, INFLATION/WEAK
DOLLAR/ECONOMIC WEAKNESS=STAGFLATION, FOURTH MONTHLY DECLINE IN A ROW FOR STOCK
MARKET, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST IF NOT THEN ALMOST IN RECESSION WITH WORSE
INFLATION NEWS AND INFLATION ADJUSTED INCOME/SPENDING FLAT, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION AND CITES NEGATIVE SAVINGS RATE AND FURTHER
ECONOMIC WEAKNESS, ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED ECONOMIC WEAKNESS WITH FURTHER DOLLAR
DECLINE SO BULLISH ON METALS AND BEARISH ON STOCKS, AND YET ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS INFLATION/RECESSION BUT NOT DEPRESSION…..RIIIIIGHT, GDP
GROWTH REPORTED MUCH LESS THAN EXPECTED (BUT CLOSER TO REALITY) AT
MINISCULE .6%, UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS JUMP
19,000 TO 373,000 AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE POST KATRINA, BERNANKE SAYS CONSUMER
WORSE OFF THAN JUST AFTER 911(?) AND THAT SOME BANKS COULD (WILL) FAIL AND THAT
STAGFLATION WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS THE 70’S, FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC SHOW
MASSIVE LOSSES, ONE ANALYST 50 YEARS IN THE BUSINESS SEES RECESSION AND SAYS
FINANCIALS HAVE BECOME IMPENETRABLE IN TERMS OF ANALYSIS/LOSSES, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS WE’RE NOWHERE NEAR IMPROVEMENT IN R.E./HOUSING MARKET,
YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION WITH HIGHER INFLATION LOWER GROWTH
(STAGFLATION) AND THAT FED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN WRONG AND ONLY RECESSION TO
BRING DOWN INFLATION, new record LOW
FOR DOLLAR AGAINST EURO AND SWISS FRANC (AND EVEN WORTH LESS THAN THE LOWLY
CANADIAN LOONEY, ETC.) WHICH ALONG WITH DEFICIT SPENDING IS HYPERINFLATIONARY
AS OIL SEES NEW INTRADAY HIGH OF $102.64, SALES/ORDERS OF DURABLE GOODS DOWN MORE
THAN EXPECTED 5.3%, BERNANKE’S NEGATIVE COMMENTS ON GREENSPAN RECESSION
PROMISES RATE CUTS FOR NEW BUBBLE WHICH RALLIES STOCKS, ONE ANALYST SAYS BANKS
AS THEIR OWN INSURERS INCREASES RISK, ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DEFICIT
SPENDING INCREASES INFLATIONARY PROBLEMS/RISK, FORECLOSURES/BANK REPO’S UP 90%
YEAR OVER YEAR, REGULATORS PREDICT OVER 100 BANK FAILURES, FORECLOSURES UP 57%
IN JANUARY, WHOLESALE INFLATION UP MUCH HIGHER THAN EXPECTED 7.5% (CORE RATE
4+%), 9% DROP IN HOME VALUES/PRICES, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOWN TO 17 YEAR LOW,
ELECTION YEAR/PROTECT INCOMPETENT INCUMBENT GOV’T PRINTING WORTHLESS DOLLARS
LIKE MAD WITH EXCESS LIQUIDITY CHASING TOO FEW GOODS (IE., FOOD UP 6%, ETC.)
WHICH IS HYPER-INFLATIONARY, ECONOMIST/ANALYST DR. KELLNER SAYS EASIER
MONEY/FISCAL PACKAGE WON’T REFLATE HOUSING MARKET (RECESSION), ANOTHER ANALYST
SAYS IN BEAR MARKET/RECESSION RECOMMENDS DEFENSIVE/PREFERRED STOCKS/BONDS/CASH,
DR. SHILLER- CASE-SHILLER INDEX- HOME VALUES CONTINUED DECLINE AND IN OR ABOUT
TO ENTER RECESSION (that’s already here), Stiglitz
Blames Greenspan For Recession, IBM ON $15 BILLION BUYBACK AND JAWBONING
AND SIGNIFICANT OVERSEAS SALES (AND POSITIVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO THE
WORTHLESS DOLLAR) RALLIES MARKET (WHAT BULL S**T), SHARPLY LOWER AND MORE WORTHLESS DOLLAR/HIGH OIL PRICE RALLY
CREATES YET ANOTHER B.S. SWING OF OVER 200 POINTS TO THE UPSIDE, FOOD PRICES UP
6% ON ETHANOL CROWD-OUT, HOME SALES
DOWN 5.5% / MEDIAN SALES PRICE DOWN 4.6%, ONE R.E. EXPERT SAYS WITH SALES
FALLING AND FORECLOSURES RISING WORSE YET TO COME, LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
FELL FOR FOURTH MONTH IN A ROW (-.1%), PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX
UNEXPECTEDLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER (The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index fell
to a -24, indicating a sharp contraction in the region's manufacturing
activity. Economists had anticipated a reading of -10, a less pronounced
contraction. Last month the reading came in at -20.9.), ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS
SIGNIFICANT INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT-STAGFLATION-AHEAD ALONG WITH CONTINUED
DEFLATION OF HOUSING BUBBLE WITH NATIONWIDE AVERAGE PRICE DECLINE OF 8-10% AND
ANOTHER DECLINE OF 15-20% TO COME. SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE
COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING(3-31-08) (DOW +46, NASDAQ +17, S&P +7) [CLOSE- OIL $101.65/ GOLD $922 /
SILVER $17.31 / PLATINUM $2,006 / DOLLAR= .63 EURO, 99 YEN, .503 POUND
STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.41%]. I
WARNED AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR
POWERS, I WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN
AGAINST INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO STRENGTH/TAKE
PROFITS/SELL). GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL INTO THIS
SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY (TAKE PROFITS).
REALITY:
THIS IS A BEAR MARKET IN A SECULAR BEAR MARKET IN A RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A
SECULAR (AND QUITE PERMANENT-THEY’VE MADE ALL THE WRONG CHOICES) ECONOMIC
DOWNTREND IN THE U.S. ONE ANALYST/REPORTER/ JOURNALIST FROM INSIDE SOURCES PEGS THE
SUB-PRIME DOLLAR VALUE OF THE SHILLED WORTHLESS PAPER AT $516 TRILLION (EVEN A
PERCENTAGE OF SAME RENDERS THE PROBLEM UNFIXABLE-HENCE, CULPABLE PARTIES MUST
BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE AND DISGORGE THEIR ILL-GOTTEN GAINS FROM, IE.,
COMMISSIONING WORTHLESS PAPER, TAKING A POINT HERE OR THERE AND FRAUDULENTLY
PASSING SAME ON, AD INFINITUM, ETC.). Time to put the wall street among other
corporate frauds in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their
ill-gotten gains. [Please note: I seldom name analysts/reporters/journalists
bearing not so glad tidings for fear they’ll be crucified by the frauds on wall
street]. (3-28-08) (DOW -86, NASDAQ -20, S&P –10.5) [CLOSE-
OIL $105.62/ GOLD $930.60 / SILVER $17.94 / PLATINUM $2,020 / DOLLAR= .63 EURO,
98 YEN, .4979 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE
YIELD 3.44%]. GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL (TAKE PROFITS) AS THE WALL
STREET SCAM IS UNEARTHED BY REVELATION THAT OF 9 INVESTMENT VEHICLES S&P
(MAJORITY OF 401K HOLDINGS, ETC.) WAS WORST PERFORMER (1% OR LESS AND IF YOU
FACTOR IN DECLINING DOLLAR, NEGATIVE RELATIVE TO NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED
ALTERNATIVES OVER DECADE). 5 REASONS WHY THE FED HAS FAILED. freddie mac economist says housing prices
might continue to fall through 2010 as house prices fall 29%, orders for new
homes down 75%, and housing starts fall 9% to 50 year low. kb homes registers
$268 million loss and offers downbeat outlook on housing crisis while j.c.
penny on retail end offers equally bad outlook and worse than expected
quarterly results to come. consumer spending weakest in 17 months. fake core
inflation report is also meaningless (excludes food and energy) at tepid 2%.
consumer sentiment index at lowest since 1992, a 16 year low. frenzy over
j.p.morgan memo on how to beef up income on mortgage applications. s&p
economist says we’re in a recession and points to a very bumpy year ahead. one
analyst says troubled market/economy to continue and shorts stocks, is long on
metals, points to failed structured finance market, failed fed and globally
recognized folly of helicopter ben (bernanke), property continue down, dollar
continue downward slide, and bubble in emerging markets. one reporter examining
financial newsletters says vast majority bleak, pessimistic in their
outlook/forecasts. socal congressman says us hole getting bigger, deeper, and
darker and regarding the fed, too little too late, kind of like his
caleefornia. yet another analyst says we’re in a nationwide recession (he
previously had called california’s recession but stopped short of nationwide),
points to job losses, higher oil/gas prices, rising debt burdens and worse on
wall street than main street, not optimistic on real estate as foreclosures and
supply up with prices declining with early 2009 at best the trough, and that
there are other financial institutions in similar situation to that of bear
stearns. 3-27-08 GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL (TAKE PROFITS) AS THE WALL STREET SCAM
IS UNEARTHED BY REVELATION THAT OF 9 INVESTMENT VEHICLES S&P (MAJORITY OF
401K HOLDINGS, ETC.) WAS WORST PERFORMER (1% OR LESS AND IF YOU FACTOR IN
DECLINING DOLLAR, NEGATIVE RELATIVE TO NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED ALTERNATIVES OVER
DECADE). FOURTH QUARTER ECONOMIC GROWTH
REVISED UPWARD TO ANEMIC .6% (RIIIIIGHT…..SO THEY WON’T HAVE TO USE THE R FOR
REALITY WORD RECESSION). OIL UP ON SUPPLY CONCERNS AND DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY. UNEMPLOYMENT
CLAIMS AT HIGH 366,000 AND ORACLE DISAPPOINTS ON SALES AS MERRILL IS
DOWNGRADED. ONE ANALYST SAYS LEHMAN (-9%) BEARS EERIE SIMILARITIES TO BEAR
STEARNS, CITES SUBSTANTIAL NUMBER OF PUTS AND RUN ON BANKS WHICH WILL HELP
FOREIGN BANKS (IE., SWISS, ETC.), ALSO CAUTIONS ON DRUG SECTOR/SIDE EFFECTS.
OIL ANALYST EMPHASIZES $7 RUN IN TWO DAYS, BOMBING OF OIL SUPPLY LINE IN IRAQ,
WEAKER DOLLAR, LIQUIDITY CRISIS, IRAQ VIOLENCE, LOWER REFINERY RUNS AND SAYS
OIL/GAS PRICES HIGHER BEFORE LOWER. ONE ECONOMIST SAYS CREDIT CRISIS AND POINTS
TO PURCHASING POWER FAILURE AS BORROWED FUNDS (IE., HOME EQUITY, ETC.) ARE
DEPLETED AND WAGES LOWER, WHILE ANOTHER ECONOMIST WHO HAS ALREADY CALLED
RECESSION SEES MORE REGULATION FOR TROUBLED
INVESTMENT BANKS AS DISTINGUISHED FROM FDIC INSURED COMMERCIAL BANKS AND
SAYS CREDIT CRUNCH WILL CONTINUE. AIRLINE COMMENTATOR/ANALYST CITES OLDER
PLANES FOR PUBLICIZED PROBLEMS, SURCHARGES/HIGHER FUEL COSTS FOR HIGHER PRICES.
3-26-08 GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL (TAKE
PROFITS) IN WHAT REMAINS OF THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY AS THE WALL STREET
SCAM UNEARTHED BY REVELATION THAT OF 9 INVESTMENT VEHICLES S&P (MAJORITY OF
401K HOLDINGS, ETC.) WAS WORST PERFORMER (1% OR LESS AND IF YOU FACTOR IN
DECLINING DOLLAR, NEGATIVE RELATIVE TO NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED ALTERNATIVES OVER
DECADE). OIL UP ON SUPPLY CONCERNS AND DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY. BANKING
SECTOR DOWNGRADED CITING MORE WRITE-DOWNS AND –84% EARNINGS (CITI, ETC.).
FACTORY ORDERS/DURABLES DOWN MORE THAN EXPECTED 1.75% AND NEW HOME SALES DOWN
1.8% ALONG WITH PRICE DECLINES (INCLUDING MEDIAN PRICE DECLINE). WSJ ARTICLE
RAISES SPECTER OF FED BANKRUPTCY AND PUBLIC BAILOUT. ONE ANALYST CITES CITIBANK
DIFFICULTIES, LBO TROUBLES (IE., CLEAR CHANNEL, ETC.), FED HOLDING JUNK PAPER,
AND RECOMMENDS DEFENSIVE (IE., CONSUMER STAPLES, ETC.) POSTURE INCLUDING
MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS (FAVORABLE CURRENCY TRANSLATION). OIL
ANALYST SAYS RECORD OIL/ GAS PRICES (GAS UP ANOTHER 5-10 CENTS) AND CITES
DECLINE IN REFINERY RUN, CONFLICT IN IRAQ, AND EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK’S FIGHT
AGAINST INFLATION/LOWER DOLLAR AND SAYS NATURAL GAS AN INTERESTING PLAY. ONE
REPORTER CITES DROP IN GAS SUPPLIES AND FINANCIAL SECTOR WRITEDOWNS. R.E.
ANALYST POINTS TO SO. CAL. 400% INCREASE IN FORECLOSURES AND SAYS NO
IMPROVEMENT UNTIL AT LEAST LATE 2008/EARLY 2009. CURRENCY EXPERT SAYS FINANCIAL
INSTITUTIONS WILL SURVIVE BUT WON’T BE LENDING, DOLLAR RISK TO THE DOWNSIDE,
FED HOLDING BAD RESERVES, HOUSING MARKET TO CONTINUE DECLINE, AND FAVORS EURO. 3-25-08 GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL (TAKE
PROFITS) THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY INTO THE CLOSE WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T AND NOTHING BUT BAD ECONOMIC NEWS AS WALL
STREET FRAUDS ATTEMPT TO WINDOW DRESS
REALISTICALLY DISMAL FIRST QUARTER NUMBERS TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND
COMPUTERIZED PROGRAM TRADE COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING. DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY.
earnings downgrade for merrill lynch/financials and reluctance to take
mark-to-market loss (prompted bear bailout) scuttles(?) clear channel deal.
GOVERNMENT HIRING NEW (FDIC) BANK REGULATORS FOR INCREASING BANK FAILURES. S&P
CASE SHILLER INDEX REGISTERS SHARPEST HOUSING PRICE DECLINE ON RECORD AT
–11.4%, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX DOWN TO 5 YR. LOW OF 65 WHICH IS
SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW EXPECTED 73, AND EXPECTATIONS INDEX AT LOWEST SINCE 1973.
KEN SHREVE OF IBD POINTS TO VOLUME (COMMISSION GENERATING COMPUTERIZED
PROGRAMMED TRADES SIMULATING DEMAND) AS A GOOD SIGN…RIIIIIGHT…CITES SELLING
PRESSURE ON THE WAY UP AND SAYS WAIT AND SEE AS NEW LEADERSHIP
DEVELOPS…RIIIIIGHT (WHICH TRANSLATED MEANS HE DOESN’T KNOW WHERE THIS
IRRATIONALLY EXUBERANT MARKET IS GOING. S&P CASE SHILLER ANALYST/VP SAYS
HOME PRICES IN DECLINE WHICH ACCELERATED IN THE LAST 6-9 MONTHS AND SEES
–20%/TROUGH IN LATE 2008. R.E. ANALYST DOESN’T SEE BOTTOM PARTICULARLY IN SO.
CALIFORNIA (IE., LA, SAN DIEGO, ETC.) (MIAMI, LAS VEGAS, PHOENIX VERY BAD). AN
ECONOMIST SAYS ANOTHER YEAR OF DECLINES SINCE CONSUMER SPENDING/CONFIDENCE HAS
WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY. CALIFORNIA BUREAUCRAT (THAT’S ALL THERE IS) SAYS TOUGH
TIMES AHEAD, POINTS TO UPSIDE DOWN CONDITIONS (MORTGAGE LOANS GREATER THAN
PROPERTY VALUES) AND SAYS HOUSE OF CARDS. ANOTHER ECONOMIST SAYS MORE EROSION
ON THE PRICE SIDE,-20%, AND A WAYS TO GO. R.E. PROF. SAYS SLIDE TO CONTINUE
UNTIL EXCESS SUPPLY IS CLEARED. 3-24-08 GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL
INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET/SHORT-COVERING RALLY (TAKE PROFITS) WHICH IS
BASED UPON B**L S**T AND NO REAL
ECONOMIC NEWS AS WALL STREET FRAUDS IN LAST DITCH EFFORT TO WINDOW DRESS
REALISTICALLY DISMAL FIRST QUARTER NUMBERS TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND
COMPUTERIZED PROGRAM TRADE COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING. THE
ELECTION-YEAR-INDUCED RALLY FAKE NEWS PUSHED BY THE WALL STREET FRAUDS IS A
MEAGER TWO-FOLD; VIZ., EXISTING HOME SALES INCREASED (JAN.-FEB.) 2.9% EXCEEDING
SUBSTANTIALLY ECONOMISTS’ PREDICTIONS AND J.P. MORGAN WILLING TO PAY $10
INSTEAD OF $2 PER SHARE FOR FAILED INVESTMENT BANK BEAR STEARNS. REALITY:
INCREASED SALES DUE TO INCREASED FORECLOSURE SALES; PRICES DOWN 8.2%; MEDIAN
HOME PRICE FELL MOST EVER ON RECORD; INCREASED BEAR MONEY TO PLACATE
SHAREHOLDERS DESPERATE MOVE TO KEEP WORTHLESS SECURITIES FROM BEING DUMPED IN
MARKET WHERE SAME CAN’T BE SOLD AND WHERE SUCH WOULD RESULT IN OTHER SUCH BEING
MARKED TO MARKET (PENNIES ON A DOLLAR). ONE ANALYST SAYS NOTHING FUNDAMENTALLY
HAS CHANGED, DAY TO DAY TRADING ON DAY’S NEWS AND TODAY A HAPPY (NON) NEWS
DAY…RIIIIIGHT…AND RECOMMENDS FOR PROTECTION NON-U.S. ASSETS/SECURITIES, METALS,
AND BIG CAP TECH/MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS (POSITIVE CURRENCY
TRANSLATION). AN ECONOMIST SAYS THE FED’S CONFUSING DEAL PROTECTS ITS OWN MONEY
BY ESSENTIALLY PROVIDING A “BRIDGE LOAN” TO PREVENT THE WORTHLESS SECURITIES
FROM BEING DUMPED WHERE THERE IS NO MARKET FOR SAME CAUSING FURTHER WRITEDOWNS
across THE BOARD ON MARK TO MARKET. ANOTHER ANALYST EMPHASIZES DISFUNCTIONAL
BANKING/CONTINUED WRITEDOWNS/LOSSES/BALANCE SHEET PROBLEMS FOR FINANCIAL
INSTITUTIONS/WE’VE NOT SEEN THE BOTTOM, IN RECOMMENDING TAKING SOME PROFITS
WITH ELECTION YEAR STIMULUS CREATING INFLATIONARY PROBLEMS, THOUGH STILL IN
BEAR MARKET THE REAL DECLINE AND REAL RECESSION (WE’RE ALREADY IN RECESSION) TO
COME POST ELECTION/2009 AND THE INTERMEDIATE TERM IS VERY SCARY. ONE R.E.
ANALYST SAYS ONE THIRD OF EXISTING HOME SALES WERE FORECLOSURES WITH OVERSUPPLY
OF PROPERTIES WHICH WILL TAKE A LONG TIME TO WORK OUT WHILE ANOTHER r.e.
ANALYST SAYS YEARS TO WORK OUT WITH ONLY LIMITED IMPROVEMENT LATE 2009. 3-20-08 FULL
MOON WITH OBVIOUS EFFECT ON LUNATIC WALL STREET FRAUDS. SMART MONEY
WOULD SELL INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET/SHORT-COVERING RALLY (TAKE PROFITS)
WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T AND EXCEEDINGLY BAD ECONOMIC NEWS VIZ.,
UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS UP MUCH MORE THAN EXPECTED 22,000 TO HIGH 378,000, CREDIT
SWISSE TO REVISE PREVIOUS YEARS PROFITS DOWN ON FURTHER WRITEDOWNS,
PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN,
AND LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS DOWN FOR FIFTH MONTH IN A ROW WHICH HAS
ALWAYS SIGNALED/INDICATED/PRECEDED ECONOMIC DOWNTURN/CONTRACTION/RECESSION. ONE
SOMEWHAT SENILE ANALYST WELCOMED THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF FAKE/FIAT/PRINTED MONEY
SAYING THE FINANCIALS WHICH HAVE LAGGED THE MARKET BY 20% WILL BE
HELPED/INFLATED OUT OF THEIR DOLDRUMS (HYPERINFLATIONARY) BY SAME WHICH HE
LIKES BECAUSE HE’S HEAVILY CONCENTRATED IN FINANCIALS (GREAT CALL) AND THAT THE
MONEY HASN’T SHOWN UP YET BUT FAILS TO REALIZE THE U.S. HAS NEVER BEEN IN SUCH
DIRE CIRCUMSTANCES ECONOMICALLY, FINANCIALLY, AND GEOPOLITICALLY AS NOW. A MORE
RATIONAL VIEW BY ECONOMIST DR. IRVING KELLNER SAID STIMULUS THUS FAR TREATS
SYMPTOMS WITH MERE BANDAIDS WHICH FAIL TO ADDRESS/CURE THE
PROBLEM/CAUSE/DISEASE AND IS RATHER SIMPLISTIC TO A FAULT IN FOCUSING SOLELY ON
HOUSING/REAL ESTATE VALUES ALTHOUGH CORRECTLY STATES THAT EASIER MONEY WILL NOT
ENHANCE THE VALUE OF MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES WHICH REMAIN INDETERMINANT,
DOWN, OR GOING DOWN AND ADVOCATES DEPRESSION ERA APPROACH SINCE HE CORRECTLY
STATES ECONOMY HAS ALREADY (DECEMBER,
2007 OR JANUARY, 2008) ENTERED THE WORST RECESSION OF THE POST-WAR ERA (DESPITE
ELECTION YEAR SPIN). ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS THIS IS A SHORT-COVERING RALLY AND AN
OPPORTUNITY TO SELL/TAKE PROFITS (i TOTALLY AGREE), THAT THE FED DESPERATION
MOVES INCLUDING PRINTING DOLLARS LIKE MAD
HAVE LED TO A DEBASEMENT OF THE U.S. CURRENCY AND THAT THE DOLLAR WILL
CONTINUE TO GO LOWER, THAT TRILLIONS HAVE BEEN BORROWED BUT THAT THEY WILL BE
UNSUCCESSFUL IN REINFLATING THE BUBBLE, THAT THE FINANCIAL CRISIS IS NO WHERE
NEAR BEING OVER WITH MUCH MORE CARNAGE TO COME, AND RECOMMENDS BEING TOTALLY
OUT OF THE DOLLAR INCLUDING DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES AND INTO OTHER
FOREIGN CURRENCIES/SECURITIES. 3-19-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO
REALITY. I WARNED AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA
BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I
WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO
STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL). morgan stanley earnings down 40% but better than
expected…..riiiiight…..on computerized bond/stock trading commissions. merrill
lynch says more loan losses. one analyst says not much optimism regarding fed
moves, deepening fears about economy, wall street stuck with a lot of stuff
(ie., junk bonds, junk securities, junk derivatives, subprime mortgages, etc.)
which can’t be sold except at firesale prices, avoid equities particularly
small/midcaps, raise cash (taking profits/selling), looking for confirmation,
entered recession in february but with inflation a very tough scenario. an oil
analyst says commodity bubble bursting with profit-taking/path of least
resistance but still record diesel at $4.21, record home heating oil $3.80 so
wait and see. another analyst says emerging markets attractive relative to
developed citing p/e multiple comparison but no save haven and points to
further weakness in dollar relative to other currencies. metals analyst says
rate cut less than expected and etfs (and computerized trading thereof) has
propped demand. 3-18-08 Suckers’
bear market irrationally exuberant bubble rally on fed fear and trembling panic
move TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION
TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING. I WARNED
AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I
WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST
INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO
STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL). WHOLESALE/PRODUCER
PRICES UP MORE THAN EXPECTED .3% WITH CORE RATE UP .5%. HOUSING STARTS DOWN 36%
TO LOWEST LEVEL IN 17 YEARS. SHARPLY (MORE THAN 50%) LOWER EARNINGS AT GOLDMAN
AND LEHMAN RALLIES THEIR STOCKS WITH FAMILIAR MANTRA ‘NOT AS BAD AS EXPECTED’…..RIIIIIGHT!
DOLLAR DOWN AGAINST MOST CURRENCIES ON .75% PANIC CUT IN FED FUNDS RATE TO
2.25%. ONE ANALYST POINTS TO STRENGTH BY SECTOR, VIZ., FINANCIALS +8% (FOCUS OF
THE BAILOUT), SMALL CAPS +5%, EMERGING MARKETS +5%, AND SAYS DOLLAR WILL BE
BOTTOMING. AN OIL ANALYST SAYS OIL TO GO HIGHER WITH INFLUX OF SPECULATIVE NEW
MONEY FROM RATE CUT. FORMER FED GOVERNOR GRAMLEY SAY WE’RE IN SERIOUS ECONOMIC
CRISIS, IN RECESSION WITH ECONOMIC WEAKNESS SUFFICIENT TO MUTE DEMAND/SHARPER
PRICE INCREASES, AND COMPARES ECONOMY TO CANCER PATIENT UNDERGOING NECESSARY
CHEMOTHERAPY…..RIIIIIGHT….., FED HAS USED EMERGENCY POWERS NOT USED SINCE THE
GREAT DEPRESSION BUT CAN’T RELY SOLELY ON THE FED. ANOTHER ANALYST TALKS IN
TERMS OF TRADING ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS (FACT-THERE ARE HISTORICALLY VERY FEW
SUCCESSFUL TRADERS), BELIEVES FED WENT TOO FAR WITH RATE CUT AND SEES
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM WITH INFLATION, THUMBS UP FOR METALS/OIL AND LARGE CAP TECH
WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS, BUT FURTHER CAUTIONS OWING TO NEGATIVE REAL INTEREST
RATES (RATES LESS THAN INFLATION, RISK, ECONOMIC FACTORS/PREMIUMS). FINALLY,
THINGS ARE SO HUNKY DORY THAT AS REPORTED BY CONTINENTAL COIN AND JEWELRY
PEOPLE ARE PULLING THEIR TEETH, EXTRACTING AND SELLING THE GOLD. LOVELY! 3-17-08 LUNATIC/FRAUDS
200+ point computerized BUY PROGRAM suckers’ bear market/short-covering rally
to the upside based upon nothing whatsoever that hasn’t already been discounted
(ie., more rate cuts by fed in panic mode, etc.). I WARNED AGAINST THE
DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF
THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN
DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO STRENGTH/TAKE
PROFITS/SELL). INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FELL A GREATER THAN EXPECTED ONE-HALF OF
1%. ONE ANALYST CITES NEW LOWS FOR DOLLAR AND SUBSTANTIAL MOVE BY FED ALREADY
DISCOUNTED (.75%). ANOTHER ANALYST CITES WEAKER DOLLAR AND SLOWER ECONOMY
IMPACTING DEMAND (IE., FOR GOODS, ETC., AND HENCE, COMMODITY PRICES, HENCE
LOWER OIL PRICE THIS DAY), CITES THIS DAYS SHORT-COVERING RALLY AND
RECOMEMMENDS MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS (POSITIVE CURRENCY
TRANSLATION) AND OVERSEAS NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES (UTILITIES, ETC.).
YET aNOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST CITES BUSINESS MODELS COMPARABLE TO BEAR STEARNS
IN FINANCIAL SECTOR(PROBLEMS WITH HEDGE FUNDS/INVESTMENT BANKS) WHICH HAS
PROVEN INABILITY TO MANAGE THEIR OWN AFFAIRS SAYING DEREGULATION A DISASTER AND
REREGULATION A CURE, NO END TO FALL IN DOLLAR AS US BECOMES WORLD’S BEGGAR, AND
RECOMMENDS NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES (IE., EURO, SWISS FRANC, ETC., AND
EMERGING FAR EAST MARKETS). aNOTHER MORE CALIFORNIA/SENILE, ANALYST/BROKER WHO
LIKE OTHERS HAVE LOST SUBSTANTIAL MONIES FOR CLIENTS CITES LACK OF OF
TRANSPARENCY AS VALUE OF HIS BUYS AND HOLDS CONTINUES TO FALL WITH DOLLAR BUT
TALKS SOME SPECULATIVE BUYS AND CASH. A FINANCIAL TIMES EDITOR SAYS NO BOTTOM
YET, THAT BY HISTORICAL STANDARDS THE SCENARIO IS QUITE BAD FOR THE US, THAT
BEAR STEARNS WAS NOT ALONE AMONG US FIRMS IN THEIR PROBLEMS, THAT THE MARKET IS
EXPECTING 1% PANIC CUT BY FED, AND THAT THE US ECONOMY IS IN DEEP TROUBLE. 3-14-08 early surge based
on false benign inflation report (showing no change in retail inflation) from
the government gives way to reality that they can’t cover up/lie about (despite
intra-day suckers rally) when there is a run on large wall street investment
bank bear stearns (first such since the great depression) which cites liquidity
crisis as ny fed and jp morgan intervene with 28 day loan as bear is holding
high risk (worthless) assets which are illiquid (thinly traded/can’t be sold)
as reserves (they are not alone in this regard among the frauds on wallstreet,
etc., and only 2 days ago bear said balance sheet stable), all time lows for
the dollar, wsj reports majority of economists think we’re in recession,
michigan (non-washington non-fed gov’t report) sentiment index at new 16 year
low. One ANALYST SAYS DOLLAR WEAKNESS/LOWER YIELDS/ECONOMIC CONCERNS WILL
CONTINUE DOWNWARD TREND, INFLATION REPORT SURPRISE/FOOLISH AND HIGHER INFLATION
NUMBER FOR MARCH, CRESCENDO OF BAD NEWS IN COMING WEEK AND LOOK FOR NEW
LOWS/BOTTOM(?). OIL ANALYST CITES WEAK DOLLAR/EASY MONEY FLOWS AND SAYS LOOK
FOR OIL AT $120-$125. ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS ITS TOO LATE FOR FED TO TURN THIS
WRITEDOWN/SUBPRIME/ECONOMIC DOWNTURN AROUND WITH BEAR ANOTHER $35-$70 BILLION
BAD AND WHAT AFTER 28 DAY LOAN-EXPECT TAKEOVER/NO MORE BEAR STEARNS. 3-13-08 SMART MONEY WOULD SELL INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY (TAKE
PROFITS) WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T ALONE (NOTHING WHATSOEVER) AS STANDARD
AND POORS ANALYST SAYS THE END OF WRITEDOWNS MIGHT (BUT NOT QUITE) BE IN
SIGHT (WHICH IS LIKE THAT BROKER WHO
SELLS STOCKS FOR A LIVING SAYING HE’S TRYING TO KEEP CLIENTS IN STOCKS BECAUSE
AT SOME POINT THEY’LL GO UP)…RIIIIIGHT….. WHICH IS MEANINGLESS COMING FROM
STANDARD AND POORS WHICH SHOULD BE ACCOUNTABLE/LIABLE (FOR THIS FRAUD) ALONG
WITH THE FRAUDS ON WALL STREET, ETC., FOR THE TRIPLE A RATED SECURITIES ON THE
BOOKS WHICH EVERYONE KNOWS ARE IN FACT NOT TRIPLE A (WORTHLESS JUNK BONDS,
ASSETS, ETC.) SPURRING 200+ POINT SWING TO THE UPSIDE. VAST MAJORITY OF
ECONOMISTS NOW SAY WE’RE IN RECESSION (EVEN DESPITE ELECTION YEAR GIMMICKS-AS
GOOD AS GETS). RETAIL SALES DOWN MORE THAN EXPECTED .6%, FORECLOSURES UP 60%
YEAR OVER YEAR, DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY. ONE ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED
UNEMPLOYMENT/EMPLOYMENT WEAKNESS, PREMATURE TO SAY AS DID S&P THAT WE’RE
NEAR END OF WRITEDOWNS, MAJORITY OF ECONOMISTS NOW SAY WE’RE IN RECESSION,
HOUSING DOWNTURN MUCH FURTHER TO GO, VERY DEFENSIVE AS STOCKS CONTINUE TO HIT
NEW LOWS IN LARGE NUMBERS, WORST OF HOUSING CRISIS AHEAD, AND THIS IS A BEAR
MARKET IN A RECESSION ECONOMY. ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS U.S. CURRENT
ACCOUNT DEFICITS, LACK OF TRUST IN U.S. FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND TRIPLE A
RATINGS (BONDS, ETC., WHICH EVERYONE KNOWS ARE NOT), BANKS’ NEED FOR
RECAPITALIZATION, LOW SAVINGS (IE., CONSUMERS USING IE., GIFT CARDS FOR
GROCERIES, ETC.), FED LOSING CREDIBILITY BY FLIP-FLOPS/WRONG MOVES, AND SEES
ONLY SHORT-COVERING RALLIES AT BEST. VENEZUELA SHIFT TO PAYMENT IN EUROS FOR
OIL OUT OF DOLLARS. YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST SAYS WITH MONEY SUPPLY INCREASING AT
EXORBITANT 27% PER ANNUM, CITING ECONOMIST FRIEDMAN SAYS HYPER-INFLATIONARY
(CONTRARY TO LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS ECONOMISTS WHO THIS DAY SEE LAND OF FRUITS
AND NUTS REAL ESTATE DOWN 17.6%, SALES DOWN 40-45%, AND MEDIAN HOME PRICES DOWN
$100,000, AND BUDGET DEFICITS ACROSS THE BOARD). 3-12-08 VERY MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY,
DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY ON PANICKY FED KNEE JERK FUNNY MONEY ACTION, ONE
ANALYST/BROKER WHO SELLS STOCKS FOR A LIVING SAYS HE’S TRYING TO KEEP CLIENTS
IN STOCKS BECAUSE AT SOME POINT THEY’LL GO UP…..RIIIIIGHT…..REFERENCES THAT
THIS IS WORST R.E. DOWNTURN IN 100 YEARS AND NO BOTTOM YET IN R.E. AND WSJ SAYS
WORSE TO COME IN BAD PAPER (WRITEDOWNS, ETC.), AN OIL ANALYST SAYS RECORD HIGH
OIL PRICES ARE HEDGE AGAINST FALLING DOLLAR WITH A LOT OF DOLLARS RELATIVE TO
GOODS (AS IE., OIL, OTHER COMMODITIES, ETC.-HYPERINFLATION) AND IF YOU HOLD
DOLLARS/DOLLAR DENOMINATED ASSETS/SECURITIES YOU LOSE VALUE AND SEES $4.00 GAS
NATIONWIDE WITH RECORD DIESEL, WHILE ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS THAT SEEING FED GO
FROM LENDER OF LAST RESORT TO LENDER (PRINTER) OF FIRST RESORT IS
WORRISOME/TROUBLESOME. 3-11-08 Suckers’ bear
market irrationally exuberant new EPHEMERAL bubble rally on fed fear and trembling panic move TO ADD $200 BILLION IN WORLDWIDE LIQUIDITY
BY TEMPORARILY REPLACING (28 DAYS) ONE TYPE OF FUNNY-MONEY (WORTHLESS SUBPRIME
COLLATERALIZED DEBT) WITH ANOTHER LONGER TERM WORTHLESS FUNNY-MONEY (U.S. DEBT
WHICH CAN’T BE PAID BACK) WHICH IS A GREAT B.S. TALKING POINT BUT JUST A DROP
IN THE BUCKET CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UNDISCLOSED WRITEDOWNS/WORTHLESS
PAPER BEING HELD(AND, CURING A BUBBLE WITH A NEW BUBBLE-I DON'T THINK SO), ONE
ANALYST POINTS TO THE HYPERINFLATIONARY EFFECTS OF TOO MUCH LIQUIDITY CHASING
TOO FEW GOODS AND MORE BAD NEWS TO COME IN TECH SECTOR AND EARNINGS ALONG WITH
MORE WRITEOFFS/WRITEDOWNS WITH WORSE TO COME/NO BOTTOM YET AND HE REMAINS A
BEAR, LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS ECONOMIST SAYS BAD BUT NOT TECHNICALLY RECESSION
BASED ON GOVERNMENT ELECTION-YEAR DATA (ONLY NUTS AND NUTS FROM THE LAND OF
FRUITS AND NUTS BELIEVE SAME) WHILE TWO OTHER ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH
STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS/HIGH INFLATION/LOWER DOLLAR AS FOREIGNERS/INVESTORS GET OUT
OF WORTHLESS DOLLAR WITH BIG TROUBLE FOR U.S. POST-ELECTION AS REALITY SETS IN,
TRADE GAP WIDENED, AND SMART MONEY WOULD SELL THIS RALLY/TAKE PROFITS. 3-10-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY,
NEW BANK DOWNGRADES, MORGAN SLASHES EARNINGS ESTIMATES FOR S&P AND SAYS
ALREADY IN RECESSION, EVEN MORE ECONOMISTS NOW SAY THE OBVIOUS/RECESSION, RUMOR
THAT BEAR STERNS WITH SUBSTANTIAL LIQUIDITY ISSUES IS GOING UNDER, DOLLAR DOWN,
EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT ON CITIBANK AND BANKOFAMERICA, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS (HYPERINFLATIONARY) HIGH ENERGY AND FOOD PRICES (CONVENIENTLY LEFT OUT OF
THE FED’S “TOUTED” CORE RATE) ARE SQUEEZING THE CONSUMER (AND HENCE,
CONSUMPTION/65% OF GDP) AND THAT COMMODITIES A BUBBLE AND MULTINATIONALS WITH
OVERSEAS EARNINGS/POSITVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO WEAKER DOLLAR PREFERRED, AN
OIL ANALYST SAYS $200 OIL POSSIBLE (REITERATING GOLDMAN) WITH CONTINUED
WEAKENING OF DOLLAR, ANOTHER ANALYST/JOURNALIST SAYS SELL DOLLAR DENOMINATED
STOCKS/SECURITIES/ASSETS WHICH HAVE MUCH FURTHER TO FALL AND REITERATES AS DID
BARRON’S THAT MORTGAGE INSURERS HAVE OVER $5 TRILLION IN DEBT/EXPOSURE AND THAT
MANY OF THE NATIONS BANKS ARE ALREADY INSOLVENT SO GET OUT OF THE DOLLAR AND
U.S. STOCKS. 3-7-08 BAD EMPLOYMENT/JOBS
DATA across ALL SECTORS AS 63,000 JOBS LOST WITH DOWNWARD REVISIONS TO DECEMBER
AND JANUARY (ACTUALLY LOST 20,000) JOBS NUMBERS, ONE ANALYST SAYS WE’RE IN A
RECESSION WHILE MORE ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH ONE STATING THAT YOU ALMOST
NEVER SEE BACK-TO-BACK MONTHLY DECLINE IN EMPLOYMENT WITHOUT RECESSION AS NOW,
DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOWS, CONSUMERS INCREASED BORROWING TO STAY AFLOAT,
WASHINGTON MUTUAL FURTHER DOWNGRADES, SUPPORT LEVELS BROKEN TO THE DOWNSIDE,
sentiment- 85% believe things will get worse.
3-6-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY
TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS
FLOWING. 23% INCREASE IN FORECLOSURES IN
FOURTH QUARTER NEW RECORD HIGH, DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOWS, 10% OF HOMES WITH 0
OR NEGATIVE EQUITY, MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION SAYS HOME FORECLOSURES AT
ALL-TIME HIGH AND GOING HIGHER, ONE R.E. ANALYST SAYS ROUGH YEAR AHEAD WITH
FORECLOSURES AND DEFAULTS UP, ONE ANALYST SAYS MARKET WILL TEST NEW
LOWS/SUPPORT LEVELS WITH FLIGHT TO “QUALITY”/TREASURIES, LENDER THORNBURG
DEFAULTS AND ALONG WITH WASHINGTON MUTUAL IS DOWNGRADED, CONTINUING CLAIMS FOR
UNEMPLOYMENT AT HIGH LEVELS MEANS COMPANIES SHRINKING, IGNORE KNEE-JERK
ELECTION YEAR GOVERNMENT HUNKY DORY FAKE REPORTS. 3-5-08 OIL INVENTORIES LESS THAN EXPECTED, FED
BEIGE BOOK CITES ECONOMIC WEAKNESS PARTICULARLY SINCE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR,
LABOR COSTS ROSE, RISING PRICE PRESSURES/STAGFLATION, RECESSION/BEAR MARKET,
ONE ANALYST SAYS TOUGH FIRST HALF RECOMMENDS MULTINATIONALS WITH 50% OVERSEAS
EARNINGS (FAVORABLE CURRENCY TRANSLATION) AND CONSUMER STAPLES/HEALTH
RELATED/DEFENSIVE STOCKS, AMBAC TO FLOAT STOCK TO SHORE UP BALANCE SHEET TO
TUNE OF $1.5 BILLION/DILUTION AND
SHARES FALL $2 TO $8.70, OIL ANALYST CITES DECLINE IN OIL
INVENTORIES/DIESEL/JET FUEL AND WEAK DOLLAR AND TOP $108-$110 BUT $120-$130 IF
VENEZUELA/COLUMBIA CONFLICT AND MORE RECORD HIGH GAS PRICES TO COME, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DECLINE IN REAL ESTATE/HOUSING WITH STARTS
DOWN 15-20-40% ON WELL DESERVED PESSIMISM/CREDIT CRUNCH. 3-4-08 Suckers’ bear market rally into the close
based on b**l s**t alone, viz., rumor/speculation about yet another bailout for
wall street/ambac/bond insurers and over 200 point swing to the upside based on
nothing whatsoever, one economist/analyst notes this is the deepest housing
decline since great depression, bernanke says another spike in foreclosures
ahead and proposes reduction of principal amounts in existing loans (sounds
like a plan…..riiiiight!), ken shreve finance editor investors business daily
says bear market 6-9 months/ don’t try to catch a falling knife as institutions
still selling/keep money safe in 3% money market for time being, one oil
analyst says oil higher before lower as expected rate cut will further weaken
dollar and drive up oil/commodities prices and problems in consumer debt in
addition to mortgages and nobody wants to hold dollars, 3-3-08 Suckers’ bear
market rally into the close, yes we are in a recession from someone who unlike
the frauds on wall street has read security analysis by graham, dodd, and
cottle and understands it (warren buffet), all news
negative, ie., ism manufacturing index down to 48.3 (contraction), car sales
down at gm (-12%) and ford (-7%), construction spending down most in 14 years,
oil analysts point to the new highs while economist/analyst says dollar has
fallen through all support levels meaning more bottoms to come, INFLATION
OUTPACING CONSUMER SPENDING (EVEN WITH SPENDING NUMBER HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
WHICH PROBABLY MEANS REALITY WAS NEGATIVE), CONSUMER CONFIDENCE/SENTIMENT DOWN
SHARPLY, CHICAGO MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN INDICATING CONTRACTION, $5.29 BILLION
LOSS FOR AIG ON WRITEOFFS, INTRA DAY HIGH FOR OIL OVER $103, INFLATION/WEAK
DOLLAR/ECONOMIC WEAKNESS=STAGFLATION, FOURTH MONTHLY DECLINE IN A ROW FOR STOCK
MARKET, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST IF NOT THEN ALMOST IN RECESSION WITH WORSE
INFLATION NEWS AND INFLATION ADJUSTED INCOME/SPENDING FLAT, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION AND CITES NEGATIVE SAVINGS RATE AND FURTHER
ECONOMIC WEAKNESS, ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED ECONOMIC WEAKNESS WITH FURTHER DOLLAR
DECLINE SO BULLISH ON METALS AND BEARISH ON STOCKS, AND YET ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS INFLATION/RECESSION BUT NOT DEPRESSION…..RIIIIIGHT, GDP
GROWTH REPORTED MUCH LESS THAN EXPECTED (BUT CLOSER TO REALITY) AT
MINISCULE .6%, UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS JUMP
19,000 TO 373,000 AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE POST KATRINA, BERNANKE SAYS CONSUMER
WORSE OFF THAN JUST AFTER 911(?) AND THAT SOME BANKS COULD (WILL) FAIL AND THAT
STAGFLATION WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS THE 70’S, FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC SHOW
MASSIVE LOSSES, ONE ANALYST 50 YEARS IN THE BUSINESS SEES RECESSION AND SAYS
FINANCIALS HAVE BECOME IMPENETRABLE IN TERMS OF ANALYSIS/LOSSES, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS WE’RE NOWHERE NEAR IMPROVEMENT IN R.E./HOUSING MARKET,
YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION WITH HIGHER INFLATION LOWER GROWTH
(STAGFLATION) AND THAT FED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN WRONG AND ONLY RECESSION TO
BRING DOWN INFLATION, new record LOW
FOR DOLLAR AGAINST EURO AND SWISS FRANC (AND EVEN WORTH LESS THAN THE LOWLY
CANADIAN LOONEY, ETC.) WHICH ALONG WITH DEFICIT SPENDING IS HYPERINFLATIONARY
AS OIL SEES NEW INTRADAY HIGH OF $102.64, SALES/ORDERS OF DURABLE GOODS DOWN
MORE THAN EXPECTED 5.3%, BERNANKE’S NEGATIVE COMMENTS ON GREENSPAN RECESSION
PROMISES RATE CUTS FOR NEW BUBBLE WHICH RALLIES STOCKS, ONE ANALYST SAYS BANKS
AS THEIR OWN INSURERS INCREASES RISK, ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DEFICIT
SPENDING INCREASES INFLATIONARY PROBLEMS/RISK, FORECLOSURES/BANK REPO’S UP 90%
YEAR OVER YEAR, REGULATORS PREDICT OVER 100 BANK FAILURES, FORECLOSURES UP 57%
IN JANUARY, WHOLESALE INFLATION UP MUCH HIGHER THAN EXPECTED 7.5% (CORE RATE
4+%), 9% DROP IN HOME VALUES/PRICES, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOWN TO 17 YEAR LOW,
ELECTION YEAR/PROTECT INCOMPETENT INCUMBENT GOV’T PRINTING WORTHLESS DOLLARS
LIKE MAD WITH EXCESS LIQUIDITY CHASING TOO FEW GOODS (IE., FOOD UP 6%, ETC.)
WHICH IS HYPER-INFLATIONARY, ECONOMIST/ANALYST DR. KELLNER SAYS EASIER
MONEY/FISCAL PACKAGE WON’T REFLATE HOUSING MARKET (RECESSION), ANOTHER ANALYST
SAYS IN BEAR MARKET/RECESSION RECOMMENDS DEFENSIVE/PREFERRED STOCKS/BONDS/CASH,
DR. SHILLER- CASE-SHILLER INDEX- HOME VALUES CONTINUED DECLINE AND IN OR ABOUT
TO ENTER RECESSION (that’s already here), Stiglitz
Blames Greenspan For Recession, IBM ON $15 BILLION BUYBACK AND JAWBONING
AND SIGNIFICANT OVERSEAS SALES (AND POSITIVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO THE
WORTHLESS DOLLAR) RALLIES MARKET (WHAT BULL S**T), SHARPLY LOWER AND MORE WORTHLESS DOLLAR/HIGH OIL PRICE RALLY
CREATES YET ANOTHER B.S. SWING OF OVER 200 POINTS TO THE UPSIDE, FOOD PRICES UP
6% ON ETHANOL CROWD-OUT, HOME SALES
DOWN 5.5% / MEDIAN SALES PRICE DOWN 4.6%, ONE R.E. EXPERT SAYS WITH SALES
FALLING AND FORECLOSURES RISING WORSE YET TO COME, LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
FELL FOR FOURTH MONTH IN A ROW (-.1%), PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX
UNEXPECTEDLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER (The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index fell
to a -24, indicating a sharp contraction in the region's manufacturing
activity. Economists had anticipated a reading of -10, a less pronounced
contraction. Last month the reading came in at -20.9.), ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS SIGNIFICANT INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT-STAGFLATION-AHEAD ALONG WITH CONTINUED
DEFLATION OF HOUSING BUBBLE WITH NATIONWIDE AVERAGE PRICE DECLINE OF 8-10% AND
ANOTHER DECLINE OF 15-20% TO COME. MODEST DROP RELATIVE TO REALITY TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE
DOLLARS FLOWING. (3-28-08) (DOW
-86, NASDAQ -20, S&P –10.5) [CLOSE- OIL $105.62/ GOLD $930.60 / SILVER
$17.94 / PLATINUM $2,020 / DOLLAR= .63 EURO, 98 YEN, .4979 POUND STERLING, ETC.
(How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.44%]. I WARNED AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I
WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL
ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED
SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL). GREAT
OPPORTUNITY TO SELL INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY (TAKE
PROFITS). REALITY: THIS IS A BEAR
MARKET IN A SECULAR BEAR MARKET IN A RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A SECULAR (AND QUITE
PERMANENT-THEY’VE MADE ALL THE WRONG CHOICES) ECONOMIC DOWNTREND IN THE U.S. ONE
ANALYST/REPORTER/ JOURNALIST FROM INSIDE SOURCES PEGS THE SUB-PRIME DOLLAR
VALUE OF THE SHILLED WORTHLESS PAPER AT $516 TRILLION (EVEN A PERCENTAGE OF
SAME RENDERS THE PROBLEM UNFIXABLE-HENCE, CULPABLE PARTIES MUST BE HELD
ACCOUNTABLE AND DISGORGE THEIR ILL-GOTTEN GAINS FROM, IE., COMMISSIONING
WORTHLESS PAPER, TAKING A POINT HERE OR THERE AND FRAUDULENTLY PASSING SAME ON,
AD INFINITUM, ETC.). Time to put the wall street among other corporate frauds
in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their ill-gotten
gains. [Please
note: I seldom name analysts/reporters/journalists bearing not so glad tidings
for fear they’ll be crucified by the frauds on wall street]. (3-27-08) (DOW -120, NASDAQ -43, S&P -15) [CLOSE-
OIL $107.58/ GOLD $948.80 / SILVER $18.55 / PLATINUM $2,043.70 / DOLLAR= .63
EURO, 98 YEN, .4979 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR
NOTE YIELD 3.54%]. GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL (TAKE PROFITS) AS THE
WALL STREET SCAM IS UNEARTHED BY REVELATION THAT OF 9 INVESTMENT VEHICLES
S&P (MAJORITY OF 401K HOLDINGS, ETC.) WAS WORST PERFORMER (1% OR LESS AND
IF YOU FACTOR IN DECLINING DOLLAR, NEGATIVE RELATIVE TO NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED
ALTERNATIVES OVER DECADE). FOURTH QUARTER
ECONOMIC GROWTH REVISED UPWARD TO ANEMIC .6% (RIIIIIGHT…..SO THEY WON’T HAVE TO
USE THE R FOR REALITY WORD RECESSION). OIL UP ON SUPPLY CONCERNS AND DOLLAR
DOWN SHARPLY. UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS AT HIGH 366,000 AND ORACLE DISAPPOINTS ON
SALES AS MERRILL IS DOWNGRADED. ONE ANALYST SAYS LEHMAN (-9%) BEARS EERIE
SIMILARITIES TO BEAR STEARNS, CITES SUBSTANTIAL NUMBER OF PUTS AND RUN ON BANKS
WHICH WILL HELP FOREIGN BANKS (IE., SWISS, ETC.), ALSO CAUTIONS ON DRUG
SECTOR/SIDE EFFECTS. OIL ANALYST EMPHASIZES $7 RUN IN TWO DAYS, BOMBING OF OIL
SUPPLY LINE IN IRAQ, WEAKER DOLLAR, LIQUIDITY CRISIS, IRAQ VIOLENCE, LOWER
REFINERY RUNS AND SAYS OIL/GAS PRICES HIGHER BEFORE LOWER. ONE ECONOMIST SAYS
CREDIT CRISIS AND POINTS TO PURCHASING POWER FAILURE AS BORROWED FUNDS (IE.,
HOME EQUITY, ETC.) ARE DEPLETED AND WAGES LOWER, WHILE ANOTHER ECONOMIST WHO
HAS ALREADY CALLED RECESSION SEES MORE REGULATION FOR TROUBLED INVESTMENT BANKS AS DISTINGUISHED FROM FDIC
INSURED COMMERCIAL BANKS AND SAYS CREDIT CRUNCH WILL CONTINUE. AIRLINE COMMENTATOR/ANALYST
CITES OLDER PLANES FOR PUBLICIZED PROBLEMS, SURCHARGES/HIGHER FUEL COSTS FOR
HIGHER PRICES. 3-26-08 GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL (TAKE
PROFITS) IN WHAT REMAINS OF THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY AS THE WALL STREET
SCAM UNEARTHED BY REVELATION THAT OF 9 INVESTMENT VEHICLES S&P (MAJORITY OF
401K HOLDINGS, ETC.) WAS WORST PERFORMER (1% OR LESS AND IF YOU FACTOR IN DECLINING
DOLLAR, NEGATIVE RELATIVE TO NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED ALTERNATIVES OVER DECADE).
OIL UP ON SUPPLY CONCERNS AND DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY. BANKING SECTOR DOWNGRADED
CITING MORE WRITE-DOWNS AND –84% EARNINGS (CITI, ETC.). FACTORY ORDERS/DURABLES
DOWN MORE THAN EXPECTED 1.75% AND NEW HOME SALES DOWN 1.8% ALONG WITH PRICE
DECLINES (INCLUDING MEDIAN PRICE DECLINE). WSJ ARTICLE RAISES SPECTER OF FED
BANKRUPTCY AND PUBLIC BAILOUT. ONE ANALYST CITES CITIBANK DIFFICULTIES, LBO
TROUBLES (IE., CLEAR CHANNEL, ETC.), FED HOLDING JUNK PAPER, AND RECOMMENDS
DEFENSIVE (IE., CONSUMER STAPLES, ETC.) POSTURE INCLUDING MULTINATIONALS WITH
OVERSEAS EARNINGS (FAVORABLE CURRENCY TRANSLATION). OIL ANALYST SAYS RECORD
OIL/ GAS PRICES (GAS UP ANOTHER 5-10 CENTS) AND CITES DECLINE IN REFINERY RUN,
CONFLICT IN IRAQ, AND EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK’S FIGHT AGAINST INFLATION/LOWER
DOLLAR AND SAYS NATURAL GAS AN INTERESTING PLAY. ONE REPORTER CITES DROP IN GAS
SUPPLIES AND FINANCIAL SECTOR WRITEDOWNS. R.E. ANALYST POINTS TO SO. CAL. 400%
INCREASE IN FORECLOSURES AND SAYS NO IMPROVEMENT UNTIL AT LEAST LATE 2008/EARLY
2009. CURRENCY EXPERT SAYS FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS WILL SURVIVE BUT WON’T BE
LENDING, DOLLAR RISK TO THE DOWNSIDE, FED HOLDING BAD RESERVES, HOUSING MARKET
TO CONTINUE DECLINE, AND FAVORS EURO. 3-25-08 GREAT
OPPORTUNITY TO SELL (TAKE PROFITS) THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY INTO
THE CLOSE WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T AND NOTHING BUT BAD ECONOMIC NEWS AS WALL
STREET FRAUDS ATTEMPT TO WINDOW DRESS
REALISTICALLY DISMAL FIRST QUARTER NUMBERS TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND
COMPUTERIZED PROGRAM TRADE COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING. DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY.
earnings downgrade for merrill lynch/financials and reluctance to take
mark-to-market loss (prompted bear bailout) scuttles(?) clear channel deal.
GOVERNMENT HIRING NEW (FDIC) BANK REGULATORS FOR INCREASING BANK FAILURES.
S&P CASE SHILLER INDEX REGISTERS SHARPEST HOUSING PRICE DECLINE ON RECORD
AT –11.4%, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX DOWN TO 5 YR. LOW OF 65 WHICH IS
SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW EXPECTED 73, AND EXPECTATIONS INDEX AT LOWEST SINCE 1973.
KEN SHREVE OF IBD POINTS TO VOLUME (COMMISSION GENERATING COMPUTERIZED
PROGRAMMED TRADES SIMULATING DEMAND) AS A GOOD SIGN…RIIIIIGHT…CITES SELLING
PRESSURE ON THE WAY UP AND SAYS WAIT AND SEE AS NEW LEADERSHIP
DEVELOPS…RIIIIIGHT (WHICH TRANSLATED MEANS HE DOESN’T KNOW WHERE THIS
IRRATIONALLY EXUBERANT MARKET IS GOING. S&P CASE SHILLER ANALYST/VP SAYS
HOME PRICES IN DECLINE WHICH ACCELERATED IN THE LAST 6-9 MONTHS AND SEES
–20%/TROUGH IN LATE 2008. R.E. ANALYST DOESN’T SEE BOTTOM PARTICULARLY IN SO.
CALIFORNIA (IE., LA, SAN DIEGO, ETC.) (MIAMI, LAS VEGAS, PHOENIX VERY BAD). AN
ECONOMIST SAYS ANOTHER YEAR OF DECLINES SINCE CONSUMER SPENDING/CONFIDENCE HAS
WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY. CALIFORNIA BUREAUCRAT (THAT’S ALL THERE IS) SAYS TOUGH
TIMES AHEAD, POINTS TO UPSIDE DOWN CONDITIONS (MORTGAGE LOANS GREATER THAN
PROPERTY VALUES) AND SAYS HOUSE OF CARDS. ANOTHER ECONOMIST SAYS MORE EROSION
ON THE PRICE SIDE,-20%, AND A WAYS TO GO. R.E. PROF. SAYS SLIDE TO CONTINUE
UNTIL EXCESS SUPPLY IS CLEARED. 3-24-08 GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL
INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET/SHORT-COVERING RALLY (TAKE PROFITS) WHICH IS
BASED UPON B**L S**T AND NO REAL
ECONOMIC NEWS AS WALL STREET FRAUDS IN LAST DITCH EFFORT TO WINDOW DRESS
REALISTICALLY DISMAL FIRST QUARTER NUMBERS TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND
COMPUTERIZED PROGRAM TRADE COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING. THE
ELECTION-YEAR-INDUCED RALLY FAKE NEWS PUSHED BY THE WALL STREET FRAUDS IS A
MEAGER TWO-FOLD; VIZ., EXISTING HOME SALES INCREASED (JAN.-FEB.) 2.9% EXCEEDING
SUBSTANTIALLY ECONOMISTS’ PREDICTIONS AND J.P. MORGAN WILLING TO PAY $10
INSTEAD OF $2 PER SHARE FOR FAILED INVESTMENT BANK BEAR STEARNS. REALITY:
INCREASED SALES DUE TO INCREASED FORECLOSURE SALES; PRICES DOWN 8.2%; MEDIAN
HOME PRICE FELL MOST EVER ON RECORD; INCREASED BEAR MONEY TO PLACATE
SHAREHOLDERS DESPERATE MOVE TO KEEP WORTHLESS SECURITIES FROM BEING DUMPED IN
MARKET WHERE SAME CAN’T BE SOLD AND WHERE SUCH WOULD RESULT IN OTHER SUCH BEING
MARKED TO MARKET (PENNIES ON A DOLLAR). ONE ANALYST SAYS NOTHING FUNDAMENTALLY
HAS CHANGED, DAY TO DAY TRADING ON DAY’S NEWS AND TODAY A HAPPY (NON) NEWS
DAY…RIIIIIGHT…AND RECOMMENDS FOR PROTECTION NON-U.S. ASSETS/SECURITIES, METALS,
AND BIG CAP TECH/MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS (POSITIVE CURRENCY
TRANSLATION). AN ECONOMIST SAYS THE FED’S CONFUSING DEAL PROTECTS ITS OWN MONEY
BY ESSENTIALLY PROVIDING A “BRIDGE LOAN” TO PREVENT THE WORTHLESS SECURITIES
FROM BEING DUMPED WHERE THERE IS NO MARKET FOR SAME CAUSING FURTHER WRITEDOWNS
across THE BOARD ON MARK TO MARKET. ANOTHER ANALYST EMPHASIZES DISFUNCTIONAL
BANKING/CONTINUED WRITEDOWNS/LOSSES/BALANCE SHEET PROBLEMS FOR FINANCIAL
INSTITUTIONS/WE’VE NOT SEEN THE BOTTOM, IN RECOMMENDING TAKING SOME PROFITS
WITH ELECTION YEAR STIMULUS CREATING INFLATIONARY PROBLEMS, THOUGH STILL IN
BEAR MARKET THE REAL DECLINE AND REAL RECESSION (WE’RE ALREADY IN RECESSION) TO
COME POST ELECTION/2009 AND THE INTERMEDIATE TERM IS VERY SCARY. ONE R.E.
ANALYST SAYS ONE THIRD OF EXISTING HOME SALES WERE FORECLOSURES WITH OVERSUPPLY
OF PROPERTIES WHICH WILL TAKE A LONG TIME TO WORK OUT WHILE ANOTHER r.e.
ANALYST SAYS YEARS TO WORK OUT WITH ONLY LIMITED IMPROVEMENT LATE 2009. 3-20-08 FULL
MOON WITH OBVIOUS EFFECT ON LUNATIC WALL STREET FRAUDS. SMART MONEY
WOULD SELL INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET/SHORT-COVERING RALLY (TAKE PROFITS)
WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T AND EXCEEDINGLY BAD ECONOMIC NEWS VIZ.,
UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS UP MUCH MORE THAN EXPECTED 22,000 TO HIGH 378,000, CREDIT
SWISSE TO REVISE PREVIOUS YEARS PROFITS DOWN ON FURTHER WRITEDOWNS,
PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN,
AND LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS DOWN FOR FIFTH MONTH IN A ROW WHICH HAS
ALWAYS SIGNALED/INDICATED/PRECEDED ECONOMIC DOWNTURN/CONTRACTION/RECESSION. ONE
SOMEWHAT SENILE ANALYST WELCOMED THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF FAKE/FIAT/PRINTED MONEY
SAYING THE FINANCIALS WHICH HAVE LAGGED THE MARKET BY 20% WILL BE
HELPED/INFLATED OUT OF THEIR DOLDRUMS (HYPERINFLATIONARY) BY SAME WHICH HE
LIKES BECAUSE HE’S HEAVILY CONCENTRATED IN FINANCIALS (GREAT CALL) AND THAT THE
MONEY HASN’T SHOWN UP YET BUT FAILS TO REALIZE THE U.S. HAS NEVER BEEN IN SUCH
DIRE CIRCUMSTANCES ECONOMICALLY, FINANCIALLY, AND GEOPOLITICALLY AS NOW. A MORE
RATIONAL VIEW BY ECONOMIST DR. IRVING KELLNER SAID STIMULUS THUS FAR TREATS
SYMPTOMS WITH MERE BANDAIDS WHICH FAIL TO ADDRESS/CURE THE
PROBLEM/CAUSE/DISEASE AND IS RATHER SIMPLISTIC TO A FAULT IN FOCUSING SOLELY ON
HOUSING/REAL ESTATE VALUES ALTHOUGH CORRECTLY STATES THAT EASIER MONEY WILL NOT
ENHANCE THE VALUE OF MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES WHICH REMAIN INDETERMINANT,
DOWN, OR GOING DOWN AND ADVOCATES DEPRESSION ERA APPROACH SINCE HE CORRECTLY
STATES ECONOMY HAS ALREADY (DECEMBER,
2007 OR JANUARY, 2008) ENTERED THE WORST RECESSION OF THE POST-WAR ERA (DESPITE
ELECTION YEAR SPIN). ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS THIS IS A SHORT-COVERING RALLY AND AN
OPPORTUNITY TO SELL/TAKE PROFITS (i TOTALLY AGREE), THAT THE FED DESPERATION
MOVES INCLUDING PRINTING DOLLARS LIKE MAD
HAVE LED TO A DEBASEMENT OF THE U.S. CURRENCY AND THAT THE DOLLAR WILL
CONTINUE TO GO LOWER, THAT TRILLIONS HAVE BEEN BORROWED BUT THAT THEY WILL BE
UNSUCCESSFUL IN REINFLATING THE BUBBLE, THAT THE FINANCIAL CRISIS IS NO WHERE
NEAR BEING OVER WITH MUCH MORE CARNAGE TO COME, AND RECOMMENDS BEING TOTALLY
OUT OF THE DOLLAR INCLUDING DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES AND INTO OTHER
FOREIGN CURRENCIES/SECURITIES. 3-19-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO
REALITY. I WARNED AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA
BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I
WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL
INTO STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL). morgan stanley earnings down 40% but better
than expected…..riiiiight…..on computerized bond/stock trading commissions.
merrill lynch says more loan losses. one analyst says not much optimism
regarding fed moves, deepening fears about economy, wall street stuck with a
lot of stuff (ie., junk bonds, junk securities, junk derivatives, subprime
mortgages, etc.) which can’t be sold except at firesale prices, avoid equities
particularly small/midcaps, raise cash (taking profits/selling), looking for
confirmation, entered recession in february but with inflation a very tough
scenario. an oil analyst says commodity bubble bursting with profit-taking/path
of least resistance but still record diesel at $4.21, record home heating oil
$3.80 so wait and see. another analyst says emerging markets attractive
relative to developed citing p/e multiple comparison but no save haven and
points to further weakness in dollar relative to other currencies. metals
analyst says rate cut less than expected and etfs (and computerized trading
thereof) has propped demand. 3-18-08 Suckers’
bear market irrationally exuberant bubble rally on fed fear and trembling panic
move TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION
TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING. I WARNED
AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I
WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST
INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO
STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL). WHOLESALE/PRODUCER
PRICES UP MORE THAN EXPECTED .3% WITH CORE RATE UP .5%. HOUSING STARTS DOWN 36%
TO LOWEST LEVEL IN 17 YEARS. SHARPLY (MORE THAN 50%) LOWER EARNINGS AT GOLDMAN
AND LEHMAN RALLIES THEIR STOCKS WITH FAMILIAR MANTRA ‘NOT AS BAD AS
EXPECTED’…..RIIIIIGHT! DOLLAR DOWN AGAINST MOST CURRENCIES ON .75% PANIC CUT IN
FED FUNDS RATE TO 2.25%. ONE ANALYST POINTS TO STRENGTH BY SECTOR, VIZ.,
FINANCIALS +8% (FOCUS OF THE BAILOUT), SMALL CAPS +5%, EMERGING MARKETS +5%,
AND SAYS DOLLAR WILL BE BOTTOMING. AN OIL ANALYST SAYS OIL TO GO HIGHER WITH
INFLUX OF SPECULATIVE NEW MONEY FROM RATE CUT. FORMER FED GOVERNOR GRAMLEY SAY
WE’RE IN SERIOUS ECONOMIC CRISIS, IN RECESSION WITH ECONOMIC WEAKNESS
SUFFICIENT TO MUTE DEMAND/SHARPER PRICE INCREASES, AND COMPARES ECONOMY TO
CANCER PATIENT UNDERGOING NECESSARY CHEMOTHERAPY…..RIIIIIGHT….., FED HAS USED
EMERGENCY POWERS NOT USED SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION BUT CAN’T RELY SOLELY ON THE
FED. ANOTHER ANALYST TALKS IN TERMS OF TRADING ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS
(FACT-THERE ARE HISTORICALLY VERY FEW SUCCESSFUL TRADERS), BELIEVES FED WENT
TOO FAR WITH RATE CUT AND SEES SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM WITH INFLATION, THUMBS UP
FOR METALS/OIL AND LARGE CAP TECH WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS, BUT FURTHER CAUTIONS
OWING TO NEGATIVE REAL INTEREST RATES (RATES LESS THAN INFLATION, RISK,
ECONOMIC FACTORS/PREMIUMS). FINALLY, THINGS ARE SO HUNKY DORY THAT AS REPORTED
BY CONTINENTAL COIN AND JEWELRY PEOPLE ARE PULLING THEIR TEETH, EXTRACTING AND
SELLING THE GOLD. LOVELY! 3-17-08 LUNATIC/FRAUDS
200+ point computerized BUY PROGRAM suckers’ bear market/short-covering rally
to the upside based upon nothing whatsoever that hasn’t already been discounted
(ie., more rate cuts by fed in panic mode, etc.). I WARNED AGAINST THE
DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF
THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN
DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO STRENGTH/TAKE
PROFITS/SELL). INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FELL A GREATER THAN EXPECTED ONE-HALF OF
1%. ONE ANALYST CITES NEW LOWS FOR DOLLAR AND SUBSTANTIAL MOVE BY FED ALREADY
DISCOUNTED (.75%). ANOTHER ANALYST CITES WEAKER DOLLAR AND SLOWER ECONOMY
IMPACTING DEMAND (IE., FOR GOODS, ETC., AND HENCE, COMMODITY PRICES, HENCE
LOWER OIL PRICE THIS DAY), CITES THIS DAYS SHORT-COVERING RALLY AND
RECOMEMMENDS MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS (POSITIVE CURRENCY
TRANSLATION) AND OVERSEAS NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES (UTILITIES, ETC.).
YET aNOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST CITES BUSINESS MODELS COMPARABLE TO BEAR STEARNS
IN FINANCIAL SECTOR(PROBLEMS WITH HEDGE FUNDS/INVESTMENT BANKS) WHICH HAS
PROVEN INABILITY TO MANAGE THEIR OWN AFFAIRS SAYING DEREGULATION A DISASTER AND
REREGULATION A CURE, NO END TO FALL IN DOLLAR AS US BECOMES WORLD’S BEGGAR, AND
RECOMMENDS NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES (IE., EURO, SWISS FRANC, ETC., AND
EMERGING FAR EAST MARKETS). aNOTHER MORE CALIFORNIA/SENILE, ANALYST/BROKER WHO
LIKE OTHERS HAVE LOST SUBSTANTIAL MONIES FOR CLIENTS CITES LACK OF OF
TRANSPARENCY AS VALUE OF HIS BUYS AND HOLDS CONTINUES TO FALL WITH DOLLAR BUT
TALKS SOME SPECULATIVE BUYS AND CASH. A FINANCIAL TIMES EDITOR SAYS NO BOTTOM
YET, THAT BY HISTORICAL STANDARDS THE SCENARIO IS QUITE BAD FOR THE US, THAT
BEAR STEARNS WAS NOT ALONE AMONG US FIRMS IN THEIR PROBLEMS, THAT THE MARKET IS
EXPECTING 1% PANIC CUT BY FED, AND THAT THE US ECONOMY IS IN DEEP TROUBLE. 3-14-08 early surge based
on false benign inflation report (showing no change in retail inflation) from
the government gives way to reality that they can’t cover up/lie about (despite
intra-day suckers rally) when there is a run on large wall street investment
bank bear stearns (first such since the great depression) which cites liquidity
crisis as ny fed and jp morgan intervene with 28 day loan as bear is holding
high risk (worthless) assets which are illiquid (thinly traded/can’t be sold)
as reserves (they are not alone in this regard among the frauds on wallstreet,
etc., and only 2 days ago bear said balance sheet stable), all time lows for
the dollar, wsj reports majority of economists think we’re in recession,
michigan (non-washington non-fed gov’t report) sentiment index at new 16 year
low. One ANALYST SAYS DOLLAR WEAKNESS/LOWER YIELDS/ECONOMIC CONCERNS WILL
CONTINUE DOWNWARD TREND, INFLATION REPORT SURPRISE/FOOLISH AND HIGHER INFLATION
NUMBER FOR MARCH, CRESCENDO OF BAD NEWS IN COMING WEEK AND LOOK FOR NEW
LOWS/BOTTOM(?). OIL ANALYST CITES WEAK DOLLAR/EASY MONEY FLOWS AND SAYS LOOK
FOR OIL AT $120-$125. ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS ITS TOO LATE FOR FED TO TURN THIS
WRITEDOWN/SUBPRIME/ECONOMIC DOWNTURN AROUND WITH BEAR ANOTHER $35-$70 BILLION
BAD AND WHAT AFTER 28 DAY LOAN-EXPECT TAKEOVER/NO MORE BEAR STEARNS. 3-13-08 SMART MONEY WOULD SELL INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY (TAKE
PROFITS) WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T ALONE (NOTHING WHATSOEVER) AS STANDARD
AND POORS ANALYST SAYS THE END OF WRITEDOWNS MIGHT (BUT NOT QUITE) BE IN
SIGHT (WHICH IS LIKE THAT BROKER WHO
SELLS STOCKS FOR A LIVING SAYING HE’S TRYING TO KEEP CLIENTS IN STOCKS BECAUSE
AT SOME POINT THEY’LL GO UP)…RIIIIIGHT….. WHICH IS MEANINGLESS COMING FROM
STANDARD AND POORS WHICH SHOULD BE ACCOUNTABLE/LIABLE (FOR THIS FRAUD) ALONG
WITH THE FRAUDS ON WALL STREET, ETC., FOR THE TRIPLE A RATED SECURITIES ON THE
BOOKS WHICH EVERYONE KNOWS ARE IN FACT NOT TRIPLE A (WORTHLESS JUNK BONDS,
ASSETS, ETC.) SPURRING 200+ POINT SWING TO THE UPSIDE. VAST MAJORITY OF
ECONOMISTS NOW SAY WE’RE IN RECESSION (EVEN DESPITE ELECTION YEAR GIMMICKS-AS
GOOD AS GETS). RETAIL SALES DOWN MORE THAN EXPECTED .6%, FORECLOSURES UP 60%
YEAR OVER YEAR, DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY. ONE ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED
UNEMPLOYMENT/EMPLOYMENT WEAKNESS, PREMATURE TO SAY AS DID S&P THAT WE’RE
NEAR END OF WRITEDOWNS, MAJORITY OF ECONOMISTS NOW SAY WE’RE IN RECESSION,
HOUSING DOWNTURN MUCH FURTHER TO GO, VERY DEFENSIVE AS STOCKS CONTINUE TO HIT
NEW LOWS IN LARGE NUMBERS, WORST OF HOUSING CRISIS AHEAD, AND THIS IS A BEAR
MARKET IN A RECESSION ECONOMY. ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS U.S. CURRENT
ACCOUNT DEFICITS, LACK OF TRUST IN U.S. FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND TRIPLE A
RATINGS (BONDS, ETC., WHICH EVERYONE KNOWS ARE NOT), BANKS’ NEED FOR
RECAPITALIZATION, LOW SAVINGS (IE., CONSUMERS USING IE., GIFT CARDS FOR
GROCERIES, ETC.), FED LOSING CREDIBILITY BY FLIP-FLOPS/WRONG MOVES, AND SEES
ONLY SHORT-COVERING RALLIES AT BEST. VENEZUELA SHIFT TO PAYMENT IN EUROS FOR
OIL OUT OF DOLLARS. YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST SAYS WITH MONEY SUPPLY INCREASING AT
EXORBITANT 27% PER ANNUM, CITING ECONOMIST FRIEDMAN SAYS HYPER-INFLATIONARY
(CONTRARY TO LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS ECONOMISTS WHO THIS DAY SEE LAND OF FRUITS
AND NUTS REAL ESTATE DOWN 17.6%, SALES DOWN 40-45%, AND MEDIAN HOME PRICES DOWN
$100,000, AND BUDGET DEFICITS ACROSS THE BOARD). 3-12-08 VERY MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY,
DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY ON PANICKY FED KNEE JERK FUNNY MONEY ACTION, ONE
ANALYST/BROKER WHO SELLS STOCKS FOR A LIVING SAYS HE’S TRYING TO KEEP CLIENTS
IN STOCKS BECAUSE AT SOME POINT THEY’LL GO UP…..RIIIIIGHT…..REFERENCES THAT
THIS IS WORST R.E. DOWNTURN IN 100 YEARS AND NO BOTTOM YET IN R.E. AND WSJ SAYS
WORSE TO COME IN BAD PAPER (WRITEDOWNS, ETC.), AN OIL ANALYST SAYS RECORD HIGH
OIL PRICES ARE HEDGE AGAINST FALLING DOLLAR WITH A LOT OF DOLLARS RELATIVE TO
GOODS (AS IE., OIL, OTHER COMMODITIES, ETC.-HYPERINFLATION) AND IF YOU HOLD
DOLLARS/DOLLAR DENOMINATED ASSETS/SECURITIES YOU LOSE VALUE AND SEES $4.00 GAS
NATIONWIDE WITH RECORD DIESEL, WHILE ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS THAT SEEING FED GO
FROM LENDER OF LAST RESORT TO LENDER (PRINTER) OF FIRST RESORT IS
WORRISOME/TROUBLESOME. 3-11-08 Suckers’ bear
market irrationally exuberant new EPHEMERAL bubble rally on fed fear and trembling panic move TO ADD $200 BILLION IN WORLDWIDE LIQUIDITY
BY TEMPORARILY REPLACING (28 DAYS) ONE TYPE OF FUNNY-MONEY (WORTHLESS SUBPRIME
COLLATERALIZED DEBT) WITH ANOTHER LONGER TERM WORTHLESS FUNNY-MONEY (U.S. DEBT
WHICH CAN’T BE PAID BACK) WHICH IS A GREAT B.S. TALKING POINT BUT JUST A DROP
IN THE BUCKET CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UNDISCLOSED WRITEDOWNS/WORTHLESS
PAPER BEING HELD(AND, CURING A BUBBLE WITH A NEW BUBBLE-I DON'T THINK SO), ONE
ANALYST POINTS TO THE HYPERINFLATIONARY EFFECTS OF TOO MUCH LIQUIDITY CHASING
TOO FEW GOODS AND MORE BAD NEWS TO COME IN TECH SECTOR AND EARNINGS ALONG WITH MORE
WRITEOFFS/WRITEDOWNS WITH WORSE TO COME/NO BOTTOM YET AND HE REMAINS A BEAR,
LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS ECONOMIST SAYS BAD BUT NOT TECHNICALLY RECESSION BASED
ON GOVERNMENT ELECTION-YEAR DATA (ONLY NUTS AND NUTS FROM THE LAND OF FRUITS
AND NUTS BELIEVE SAME) WHILE TWO OTHER ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH STRUCTURAL
PROBLEMS/HIGH INFLATION/LOWER DOLLAR AS FOREIGNERS/INVESTORS GET OUT OF
WORTHLESS DOLLAR WITH BIG TROUBLE FOR U.S. POST-ELECTION AS REALITY SETS IN,
TRADE GAP WIDENED, AND SMART MONEY WOULD SELL THIS RALLY/TAKE PROFITS. 3-10-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY,
NEW BANK DOWNGRADES, MORGAN SLASHES EARNINGS ESTIMATES FOR S&P AND SAYS
ALREADY IN RECESSION, EVEN MORE ECONOMISTS NOW SAY THE OBVIOUS/RECESSION, RUMOR
THAT BEAR STERNS WITH SUBSTANTIAL LIQUIDITY ISSUES IS GOING UNDER, DOLLAR DOWN,
EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT ON CITIBANK AND BANKOFAMERICA, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS (HYPERINFLATIONARY) HIGH ENERGY AND FOOD PRICES (CONVENIENTLY LEFT OUT OF
THE FED’S “TOUTED” CORE RATE) ARE SQUEEZING THE CONSUMER (AND HENCE,
CONSUMPTION/65% OF GDP) AND THAT COMMODITIES A BUBBLE AND MULTINATIONALS WITH
OVERSEAS EARNINGS/POSITVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO WEAKER DOLLAR PREFERRED, AN
OIL ANALYST SAYS $200 OIL POSSIBLE (REITERATING GOLDMAN) WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING
OF DOLLAR, ANOTHER ANALYST/JOURNALIST SAYS SELL DOLLAR DENOMINATED
STOCKS/SECURITIES/ASSETS WHICH HAVE MUCH FURTHER TO FALL AND REITERATES AS DID
BARRON’S THAT MORTGAGE INSURERS HAVE OVER $5 TRILLION IN DEBT/EXPOSURE AND THAT
MANY OF THE NATIONS BANKS ARE ALREADY INSOLVENT SO GET OUT OF THE DOLLAR AND
U.S. STOCKS. 3-7-08 BAD
EMPLOYMENT/JOBS DATA across ALL SECTORS AS 63,000 JOBS LOST WITH DOWNWARD
REVISIONS TO DECEMBER AND JANUARY (ACTUALLY LOST 20,000) JOBS NUMBERS, ONE
ANALYST SAYS WE’RE IN A RECESSION WHILE MORE ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH ONE
STATING THAT YOU ALMOST NEVER SEE BACK-TO-BACK MONTHLY DECLINE IN EMPLOYMENT
WITHOUT RECESSION AS NOW, DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOWS, CONSUMERS INCREASED
BORROWING TO STAY AFLOAT, WASHINGTON MUTUAL FURTHER DOWNGRADES, SUPPORT LEVELS
BROKEN TO THE DOWNSIDE, sentiment- 85% believe things will get worse. 3-6-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY
TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS
FLOWING. 23% INCREASE IN FORECLOSURES IN
FOURTH QUARTER NEW RECORD HIGH, DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOWS, 10% OF HOMES WITH 0
OR NEGATIVE EQUITY, MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION SAYS HOME FORECLOSURES AT
ALL-TIME HIGH AND GOING HIGHER, ONE R.E. ANALYST SAYS ROUGH YEAR AHEAD WITH
FORECLOSURES AND DEFAULTS UP, ONE ANALYST SAYS MARKET WILL TEST NEW
LOWS/SUPPORT LEVELS WITH FLIGHT TO “QUALITY”/TREASURIES, LENDER THORNBURG
DEFAULTS AND ALONG WITH WASHINGTON MUTUAL IS DOWNGRADED, CONTINUING CLAIMS FOR
UNEMPLOYMENT AT HIGH LEVELS MEANS COMPANIES SHRINKING, IGNORE KNEE-JERK
ELECTION YEAR GOVERNMENT HUNKY DORY FAKE REPORTS. 3-5-08 OIL INVENTORIES LESS THAN EXPECTED, FED
BEIGE BOOK CITES ECONOMIC WEAKNESS PARTICULARLY SINCE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR,
LABOR COSTS ROSE, RISING PRICE PRESSURES/STAGFLATION, RECESSION/BEAR MARKET,
ONE ANALYST SAYS TOUGH FIRST HALF RECOMMENDS MULTINATIONALS WITH 50% OVERSEAS
EARNINGS (FAVORABLE CURRENCY TRANSLATION) AND CONSUMER STAPLES/HEALTH
RELATED/DEFENSIVE STOCKS, AMBAC TO FLOAT STOCK TO SHORE UP BALANCE SHEET TO
TUNE OF $1.5 BILLION/DILUTION AND
SHARES FALL $2 TO $8.70, OIL ANALYST CITES DECLINE IN OIL
INVENTORIES/DIESEL/JET FUEL AND WEAK DOLLAR AND TOP $108-$110 BUT $120-$130 IF
VENEZUELA/COLUMBIA CONFLICT AND MORE RECORD HIGH GAS PRICES TO COME, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DECLINE IN REAL ESTATE/HOUSING WITH STARTS
DOWN 15-20-40% ON WELL DESERVED PESSIMISM/CREDIT CRUNCH. 3-4-08 Suckers’ bear market rally into the close
based on b**l s**t alone, viz., rumor/speculation about yet another bailout for
wall street/ambac/bond insurers and over 200 point swing to the upside based on
nothing whatsoever, one economist/analyst notes this is the deepest housing
decline since great depression, bernanke says another spike in foreclosures
ahead and proposes reduction of principal amounts in existing loans (sounds
like a plan…..riiiiight!), ken shreve finance editor investors business daily
says bear market 6-9 months/ don’t try to catch a falling knife as institutions
still selling/keep money safe in 3% money market for time being, one oil analyst
says oil higher before lower as expected rate cut will further weaken dollar
and drive up oil/commodities prices and problems in consumer debt in addition
to mortgages and nobody wants to hold dollars, 3-3-08 Suckers’ bear
market rally into the close, yes we are in a recession from someone who unlike
the frauds on wall street has read security analysis by graham, dodd, and
cottle and understands it (warren buffet), all news
negative, ie., ism manufacturing index down to 48.3 (contraction), car sales down
at gm (-12%) and ford (-7%), construction spending down most in 14 years, oil
analysts point to the new highs while economist/analyst says dollar has fallen
through all support levels meaning more bottoms to come, INFLATION OUTPACING
CONSUMER SPENDING (EVEN WITH SPENDING NUMBER HIGHER THAN EXPECTED WHICH
PROBABLY MEANS REALITY WAS NEGATIVE), CONSUMER CONFIDENCE/SENTIMENT DOWN
SHARPLY, CHICAGO MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN INDICATING CONTRACTION, $5.29 BILLION
LOSS FOR AIG ON WRITEOFFS, INTRA DAY HIGH FOR OIL OVER $103, INFLATION/WEAK
DOLLAR/ECONOMIC WEAKNESS=STAGFLATION, FOURTH MONTHLY DECLINE IN A ROW FOR STOCK
MARKET, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST IF NOT THEN ALMOST IN RECESSION WITH WORSE
INFLATION NEWS AND INFLATION ADJUSTED INCOME/SPENDING FLAT, ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS RECESSION AND CITES NEGATIVE SAVINGS RATE AND FURTHER ECONOMIC WEAKNESS,
ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED ECONOMIC WEAKNESS WITH FURTHER DOLLAR DECLINE SO BULLISH
ON METALS AND BEARISH ON STOCKS, AND YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS
INFLATION/RECESSION BUT NOT DEPRESSION…..RIIIIIGHT, GDP GROWTH REPORTED
MUCH LESS THAN EXPECTED (BUT CLOSER TO REALITY) AT MINISCULE .6%, UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS JUMP 19,000 TO
373,000 AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE POST KATRINA, BERNANKE SAYS CONSUMER WORSE OFF
THAN JUST AFTER 911(?) AND THAT SOME BANKS COULD (WILL) FAIL AND THAT
STAGFLATION WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS THE 70’S, FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC SHOW
MASSIVE LOSSES, ONE ANALYST 50 YEARS IN THE BUSINESS SEES RECESSION AND SAYS
FINANCIALS HAVE BECOME IMPENETRABLE IN TERMS OF ANALYSIS/LOSSES, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS WE’RE NOWHERE NEAR IMPROVEMENT IN R.E./HOUSING MARKET,
YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION WITH HIGHER INFLATION LOWER GROWTH
(STAGFLATION) AND THAT FED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN WRONG AND ONLY RECESSION TO BRING
DOWN INFLATION, new record LOW FOR
DOLLAR AGAINST EURO AND SWISS FRANC (AND EVEN WORTH LESS THAN THE LOWLY
CANADIAN LOONEY, ETC.) WHICH ALONG WITH DEFICIT SPENDING IS HYPERINFLATIONARY
AS OIL SEES NEW INTRADAY HIGH OF $102.64, SALES/ORDERS OF DURABLE GOODS DOWN
MORE THAN EXPECTED 5.3%, BERNANKE’S NEGATIVE COMMENTS ON GREENSPAN RECESSION
PROMISES RATE CUTS FOR NEW BUBBLE WHICH RALLIES STOCKS, ONE ANALYST SAYS BANKS
AS THEIR OWN INSURERS INCREASES RISK, ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DEFICIT
SPENDING INCREASES INFLATIONARY PROBLEMS/RISK, FORECLOSURES/BANK REPO’S UP 90%
YEAR OVER YEAR, REGULATORS PREDICT OVER 100 BANK FAILURES, FORECLOSURES UP 57%
IN JANUARY, WHOLESALE INFLATION UP MUCH HIGHER THAN EXPECTED 7.5% (CORE RATE
4+%), 9% DROP IN HOME VALUES/PRICES, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOWN TO 17 YEAR LOW,
ELECTION YEAR/PROTECT INCOMPETENT INCUMBENT GOV’T PRINTING WORTHLESS DOLLARS
LIKE MAD WITH EXCESS LIQUIDITY CHASING TOO FEW GOODS (IE., FOOD UP 6%, ETC.)
WHICH IS HYPER-INFLATIONARY, ECONOMIST/ANALYST DR. KELLNER SAYS EASIER
MONEY/FISCAL PACKAGE WON’T REFLATE HOUSING MARKET (RECESSION), ANOTHER ANALYST
SAYS IN BEAR MARKET/RECESSION RECOMMENDS DEFENSIVE/PREFERRED STOCKS/BONDS/CASH,
DR. SHILLER- CASE-SHILLER INDEX- HOME VALUES CONTINUED DECLINE AND IN OR ABOUT
TO ENTER RECESSION (that’s already here), Stiglitz
Blames Greenspan For Recession, IBM ON $15 BILLION BUYBACK AND JAWBONING
AND SIGNIFICANT OVERSEAS SALES (AND POSITIVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO THE
WORTHLESS DOLLAR) RALLIES MARKET (WHAT BULL S**T), SHARPLY LOWER AND MORE WORTHLESS DOLLAR/HIGH OIL PRICE RALLY
CREATES YET ANOTHER B.S. SWING OF OVER 200 POINTS TO THE UPSIDE, FOOD PRICES UP
6% ON ETHANOL CROWD-OUT, HOME SALES
DOWN 5.5% / MEDIAN SALES PRICE DOWN 4.6%, ONE R.E. EXPERT SAYS WITH SALES
FALLING AND FORECLOSURES RISING WORSE YET TO COME, LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
FELL FOR FOURTH MONTH IN A ROW (-.1%), PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX
UNEXPECTEDLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER (The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index fell
to a -24, indicating a sharp contraction in the region's manufacturing
activity. Economists had anticipated a reading of -10, a less pronounced
contraction. Last month the reading came in at -20.9.), ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS SIGNIFICANT INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT-STAGFLATION-AHEAD ALONG WITH
CONTINUED DEFLATION OF HOUSING BUBBLE WITH NATIONWIDE AVERAGE PRICE DECLINE OF
8-10% AND ANOTHER DECLINE OF 15-20% TO COME. MODEST DROP RELATIVE TO REALITY TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE
DOLLARS FLOWING. (3-27-08) (DOW
-120, NASDAQ -43, S&P -15) [CLOSE- OIL $107.58/ GOLD $948.80 / SILVER
$18.55 / PLATINUM $2,043.70 / DOLLAR= .63 EURO, 98 YEN, .4979 POUND STERLING,
ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.54%]. I WARNED AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I
WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL
ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED
SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL). GREAT
OPPORTUNITY TO SELL INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY (TAKE
PROFITS). REALITY: THIS IS A BEAR
MARKET IN A SECULAR BEAR MARKET IN A RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A SECULAR (AND QUITE
PERMANENT-THEY’VE MADE ALL THE WRONG CHOICES) ECONOMIC DOWNTREND IN THE U.S. ONE
ANALYST/REPORTER/ JOURNALIST FROM INSIDE SOURCES PEGS THE SUB-PRIME DOLLAR
VALUE OF THE SHILLED WORTHLESS PAPER AT $516 TRILLION (EVEN A PERCENTAGE OF
SAME RENDERS THE PROBLEM UNFIXABLE-HENCE, CULPABLE PARTIES MUST BE HELD
ACCOUNTABLE AND DISGORGE THEIR ILL-GOTTEN GAINS FROM, IE., COMMISSIONING
WORTHLESS PAPER, TAKING A POINT HERE OR THERE AND FRAUDULENTLY PASSING SAME ON,
AD INFINITUM, ETC.). Time to put the wall street among other corporate frauds
in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their ill-gotten
gains. [Please
note: I seldom name analysts/reporters/journalists bearing not so glad tidings
for fear they’ll be crucified by the frauds on wall street]. (3-26-08) (DOW -110, NASDAQ -17, S&P -12) [CLOSE-
OIL $106/ GOLD $949.20 / SILVER $18.38 / PLATINUM $2,000 / DOLLAR= .6311 EURO,
98 YEN, .498 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE
YIELD 3.46%]. GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL (TAKE PROFITS) IN WHAT
REMAINS OF THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY AS THE WALL STREET SCAM UNEARTHED BY
REVELATION THAT OF 9 INVESTMENT VEHICLES S&P (MAJORITY ORF 401K HOLDINGS,
ETC.) WAS WORST PERFORMER (1% OR LESS AND IF YOU FACTOR IN DECLINING DOLLAR,
NEGATIVE RELATIVE TO NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED ALTERNATIVES OVER DECADE). OIL
UP ON SUPPLY CONCERNS AND DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY. BANKING SECTOR DOWNGRADED CITING
MORE WRITE-DOWNS AND –84% EARNINGS (CITI, ETC.). FACTORY ORDERS/DURABLES DOWN
MORE THAN EXPECTED 1.75% AND NEW HOME SALES DOWN 1.8% ALONG WITH PRICE DECLINES
(INCLUDING MEDIAN PRICE DECLINE). WSJ ARTICLE RAISES SPECTER OF FED BANKRUPTCY
AND PUBLIC BAILOUT. ONE ANALYST CITES CITIBANK DIFFICULTIES, LBO TROUBLES (IE.,
CLEAR CHANNEL, ETC.), FED HOLDING JUNK PAPER, AND RECOMMENDS DEFENSIVE (IE.,
CONSUMER STAPLES, ETC.) POSTURE INCLUDING MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS
(FAVORABLE CURRENCY TRANSLATION). OIL ANALYST SAYS RECORD OIL/ GAS PRICES (GAS
UP ANOTHER 5-10 CENTS) AND CITES DECLINE IN REFINERY RUN, CONFLICT IN IRAQ, AND
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK’S FIGHT AGAINST INFLATION/LOWER DOLLAR AND SAYS NATURAL
GAS AN INTERESTING PLAY. ONE REPORTER CITES DROP IN GAS SUPPLIES AND FINANCIAL
SECTOR WRITEDOWNS. R.E. ANALYST POINTS TO SO. CAL. 400% INCREASE IN
FORECLOSURES AND SAYS NO IMPROVEMENT UNTIL AT LEAST LATE 2008/EARLY 2009.
CURRENCY EXPERT SAYS FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS WILL SURVIVE BUT WON’T BE LENDING,
DOLLAR RISK TO THE DOWNSIDE, FED HOLDING BAD RESERVES, HOUSING MARKET TO
CONTINUE DECLINE, AND FAVORS EURO. 3-25-08 GREAT
OPPORTUNITY TO SELL (TAKE PROFITS) THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY INTO
THE CLOSE WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T AND NOTHING BUT BAD ECONOMIC NEWS AS WALL
STREET FRAUDS ATTEMPT TO WINDOW DRESS
REALISTICALLY DISMAL FIRST QUARTER NUMBERS TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND
COMPUTERIZED PROGRAM TRADE COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING. DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY.
earnings downgrade for merrill lynch/financials and reluctance to take
mark-to-market loss (prompted bear bailout) scuttles(?) clear channel deal.
GOVERNMENT HIRING NEW (FDIC) BANK REGULATORS FOR INCREASING BANK FAILURES.
S&P CASE SHILLER INDEX REGISTERS SHARPEST HOUSING PRICE DECLINE ON RECORD
AT –11.4%, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX DOWN TO 5 YR. LOW OF 65 WHICH IS
SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW EXPECTED 73, AND EXPECTATIONS INDEX AT LOWEST SINCE 1973.
KEN SHREVE OF IBD POINTS TO VOLUME (COMMISSION GENERATING COMPUTERIZED
PROGRAMMED TRADES SIMULATING DEMAND) AS A GOOD SIGN…RIIIIIGHT…CITES SELLING
PRESSURE ON THE WAY UP AND SAYS WAIT AND SEE AS NEW LEADERSHIP
DEVELOPS…RIIIIIGHT (WHICH TRANSLATED MEANS HE DOESN’T KNOW WHERE THIS
IRRATIONALLY EXUBERANT MARKET IS GOING. S&P CASE SHILLER ANALYST/VP SAYS
HOME PRICES IN DECLINE WHICH ACCELERATED IN THE LAST 6-9 MONTHS AND SEES
–20%/TROUGH IN LATE 2008. R.E. ANALYST DOESN’T SEE BOTTOM PARTICULARLY IN SO.
CALIFORNIA (IE., LA, SAN DIEGO, ETC.) (MIAMI, LAS VEGAS, PHOENIX VERY BAD). AN
ECONOMIST SAYS ANOTHER YEAR OF DECLINES SINCE CONSUMER SPENDING/CONFIDENCE HAS
WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY. CALIFORNIA BUREAUCRAT (THAT’S ALL THERE IS) SAYS TOUGH TIMES
AHEAD, POINTS TO UPSIDE DOWN CONDITIONS (MORTGAGE LOANS GREATER THAN PROPERTY
VALUES) AND SAYS HOUSE OF CARDS. ANOTHER ECONOMIST SAYS MORE EROSION ON THE
PRICE SIDE,-20%, AND A WAYS TO GO. R.E. PROF. SAYS SLIDE TO CONTINUE UNTIL
EXCESS SUPPLY IS CLEARED. 3-24-08 GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL
INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET/SHORT-COVERING RALLY (TAKE PROFITS) WHICH IS
BASED UPON B**L S**T AND NO REAL
ECONOMIC NEWS AS WALL STREET FRAUDS IN LAST DITCH EFFORT TO WINDOW DRESS
REALISTICALLY DISMAL FIRST QUARTER NUMBERS TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND
COMPUTERIZED PROGRAM TRADE COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING. THE
ELECTION-YEAR-INDUCED RALLY FAKE NEWS PUSHED BY THE WALL STREET FRAUDS IS A
MEAGER TWO-FOLD; VIZ., EXISTING HOME SALES INCREASED (JAN.-FEB.) 2.9% EXCEEDING
SUBSTANTIALLY ECONOMISTS’ PREDICTIONS AND J.P. MORGAN WILLING TO PAY $10
INSTEAD OF $2 PER SHARE FOR FAILED INVESTMENT BANK BEAR STEARNS. REALITY:
INCREASED SALES DUE TO INCREASED FORECLOSURE SALES; PRICES DOWN 8.2%; MEDIAN
HOME PRICE FELL MOST EVER ON RECORD; INCREASED BEAR MONEY TO PLACATE
SHAREHOLDERS DESPERATE MOVE TO KEEP WORTHLESS SECURITIES FROM BEING DUMPED IN
MARKET WHERE SAME CAN’T BE SOLD AND WHERE SUCH WOULD RESULT IN OTHER SUCH BEING
MARKED TO MARKET (PENNIES ON A DOLLAR). ONE ANALYST SAYS NOTHING FUNDAMENTALLY
HAS CHANGED, DAY TO DAY TRADING ON DAY’S NEWS AND TODAY A HAPPY (NON) NEWS
DAY…RIIIIIGHT…AND RECOMMENDS FOR PROTECTION NON-U.S. ASSETS/SECURITIES, METALS,
AND BIG CAP TECH/MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS (POSITIVE CURRENCY
TRANSLATION). AN ECONOMIST SAYS THE FED’S CONFUSING DEAL PROTECTS ITS OWN MONEY
BY ESSENTIALLY PROVIDING A “BRIDGE LOAN” TO PREVENT THE WORTHLESS SECURITIES
FROM BEING DUMPED WHERE THERE IS NO MARKET FOR SAME CAUSING FURTHER WRITEDOWNS
across THE BOARD ON MARK TO MARKET. ANOTHER ANALYST EMPHASIZES DISFUNCTIONAL
BANKING/CONTINUED WRITEDOWNS/LOSSES/BALANCE SHEET PROBLEMS FOR FINANCIAL
INSTITUTIONS/WE’VE NOT SEEN THE BOTTOM, IN RECOMMENDING TAKING SOME PROFITS
WITH ELECTION YEAR STIMULUS CREATING INFLATIONARY PROBLEMS, THOUGH STILL IN
BEAR MARKET THE REAL DECLINE AND REAL RECESSION (WE’RE ALREADY IN RECESSION) TO
COME POST ELECTION/2009 AND THE INTERMEDIATE TERM IS VERY SCARY. ONE R.E.
ANALYST SAYS ONE THIRD OF EXISTING HOME SALES WERE FORECLOSURES WITH OVERSUPPLY
OF PROPERTIES WHICH WILL TAKE A LONG TIME TO WORK OUT WHILE ANOTHER r.e.
ANALYST SAYS YEARS TO WORK OUT WITH ONLY LIMITED IMPROVEMENT LATE 2009. 3-20-08 FULL
MOON WITH OBVIOUS EFFECT ON LUNATIC WALL STREET FRAUDS. SMART MONEY
WOULD SELL INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET/SHORT-COVERING RALLY (TAKE PROFITS)
WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T AND EXCEEDINGLY BAD ECONOMIC NEWS VIZ.,
UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS UP MUCH MORE THAN EXPECTED 22,000 TO HIGH 378,000, CREDIT
SWISSE TO REVISE PREVIOUS YEARS PROFITS DOWN ON FURTHER WRITEDOWNS,
PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN,
AND LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS DOWN FOR FIFTH MONTH IN A ROW WHICH HAS
ALWAYS SIGNALED/INDICATED/PRECEDED ECONOMIC DOWNTURN/CONTRACTION/RECESSION. ONE
SOMEWHAT SENILE ANALYST WELCOMED THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF FAKE/FIAT/PRINTED MONEY
SAYING THE FINANCIALS WHICH HAVE LAGGED THE MARKET BY 20% WILL BE
HELPED/INFLATED OUT OF THEIR DOLDRUMS (HYPERINFLATIONARY) BY SAME WHICH HE
LIKES BECAUSE HE’S HEAVILY CONCENTRATED IN FINANCIALS (GREAT CALL) AND THAT THE
MONEY HASN’T SHOWN UP YET BUT FAILS TO REALIZE THE U.S. HAS NEVER BEEN IN SUCH
DIRE CIRCUMSTANCES ECONOMICALLY, FINANCIALLY, AND GEOPOLITICALLY AS NOW. A MORE
RATIONAL VIEW BY ECONOMIST DR. IRVING KELLNER SAID STIMULUS THUS FAR TREATS
SYMPTOMS WITH MERE BANDAIDS WHICH FAIL TO ADDRESS/CURE THE
PROBLEM/CAUSE/DISEASE AND IS RATHER SIMPLISTIC TO A FAULT IN FOCUSING SOLELY ON
HOUSING/REAL ESTATE VALUES ALTHOUGH CORRECTLY STATES THAT EASIER MONEY WILL NOT
ENHANCE THE VALUE OF MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES WHICH REMAIN INDETERMINANT,
DOWN, OR GOING DOWN AND ADVOCATES DEPRESSION ERA APPROACH SINCE HE CORRECTLY
STATES ECONOMY HAS ALREADY (DECEMBER,
2007 OR JANUARY, 2008) ENTERED THE WORST RECESSION OF THE POST-WAR ERA (DESPITE
ELECTION YEAR SPIN). ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS THIS IS A SHORT-COVERING RALLY AND AN
OPPORTUNITY TO SELL/TAKE PROFITS (i TOTALLY AGREE), THAT THE FED DESPERATION
MOVES INCLUDING PRINTING DOLLARS LIKE MAD
HAVE LED TO A DEBASEMENT OF THE U.S. CURRENCY AND THAT THE DOLLAR WILL
CONTINUE TO GO LOWER, THAT TRILLIONS HAVE BEEN BORROWED BUT THAT THEY WILL BE
UNSUCCESSFUL IN REINFLATING THE BUBBLE, THAT THE FINANCIAL CRISIS IS NO WHERE
NEAR BEING OVER WITH MUCH MORE CARNAGE TO COME, AND RECOMMENDS BEING TOTALLY
OUT OF THE DOLLAR INCLUDING DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES AND INTO OTHER
FOREIGN CURRENCIES/SECURITIES. 3-19-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO
REALITY. I WARNED AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA
BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I
WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL
INTO STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL). morgan stanley earnings down 40% but better
than expected…..riiiiight…..on computerized bond/stock trading commissions.
merrill lynch says more loan losses. one analyst says not much optimism
regarding fed moves, deepening fears about economy, wall street stuck with a
lot of stuff (ie., junk bonds, junk securities, junk derivatives, subprime
mortgages, etc.) which can’t be sold except at firesale prices, avoid equities
particularly small/midcaps, raise cash (taking profits/selling), looking for
confirmation, entered recession in february but with inflation a very tough
scenario. an oil analyst says commodity bubble bursting with profit-taking/path
of least resistance but still record diesel at $4.21, record home heating oil
$3.80 so wait and see. another analyst says emerging markets attractive
relative to developed citing p/e multiple comparison but no save haven and
points to further weakness in dollar relative to other currencies. metals
analyst says rate cut less than expected and etfs (and computerized trading
thereof) has propped demand. 3-18-08 Suckers’
bear market irrationally exuberant bubble rally on fed fear and trembling panic
move TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION
TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING. I WARNED
AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I
WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST
INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO
STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL). WHOLESALE/PRODUCER
PRICES UP MORE THAN EXPECTED .3% WITH CORE RATE UP .5%. HOUSING STARTS DOWN 36%
TO LOWEST LEVEL IN 17 YEARS. SHARPLY (MORE THAN 50%) LOWER EARNINGS AT GOLDMAN
AND LEHMAN RALLIES THEIR STOCKS WITH FAMILIAR MANTRA ‘NOT AS BAD AS
EXPECTED’…..RIIIIIGHT! DOLLAR DOWN AGAINST MOST CURRENCIES ON .75% PANIC CUT IN
FED FUNDS RATE TO 2.25%. ONE ANALYST POINTS TO STRENGTH BY SECTOR, VIZ.,
FINANCIALS +8% (FOCUS OF THE BAILOUT), SMALL CAPS +5%, EMERGING MARKETS +5%,
AND SAYS DOLLAR WILL BE BOTTOMING. AN OIL ANALYST SAYS OIL TO GO HIGHER WITH
INFLUX OF SPECULATIVE NEW MONEY FROM RATE CUT. FORMER FED GOVERNOR GRAMLEY SAY
WE’RE IN SERIOUS ECONOMIC CRISIS, IN RECESSION WITH ECONOMIC WEAKNESS
SUFFICIENT TO MUTE DEMAND/SHARPER PRICE INCREASES, AND COMPARES ECONOMY TO
CANCER PATIENT UNDERGOING NECESSARY CHEMOTHERAPY…..RIIIIIGHT….., FED HAS USED
EMERGENCY POWERS NOT USED SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION BUT CAN’T RELY SOLELY ON
THE FED. ANOTHER ANALYST TALKS IN TERMS OF TRADING ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS
(FACT-THERE ARE HISTORICALLY VERY FEW SUCCESSFUL TRADERS), BELIEVES FED WENT
TOO FAR WITH RATE CUT AND SEES SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM WITH INFLATION, THUMBS UP
FOR METALS/OIL AND LARGE CAP TECH WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS, BUT FURTHER CAUTIONS
OWING TO NEGATIVE REAL INTEREST RATES (RATES LESS THAN INFLATION, RISK,
ECONOMIC FACTORS/PREMIUMS). FINALLY, THINGS ARE SO HUNKY DORY THAT AS REPORTED
BY CONTINENTAL COIN AND JEWELRY PEOPLE ARE PULLING THEIR TEETH, EXTRACTING AND
SELLING THE GOLD. LOVELY! 3-17-08 LUNATIC/FRAUDS
200+ point computerized BUY PROGRAM suckers’ bear market/short-covering rally
to the upside based upon nothing whatsoever that hasn’t already been discounted
(ie., more rate cuts by fed in panic mode, etc.). I WARNED AGAINST THE
DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF
THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN
DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO STRENGTH/TAKE
PROFITS/SELL). INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FELL A GREATER THAN EXPECTED ONE-HALF OF
1%. ONE ANALYST CITES NEW LOWS FOR DOLLAR AND SUBSTANTIAL MOVE BY FED ALREADY
DISCOUNTED (.75%). ANOTHER ANALYST CITES WEAKER DOLLAR AND SLOWER ECONOMY
IMPACTING DEMAND (IE., FOR GOODS, ETC., AND HENCE, COMMODITY PRICES, HENCE
LOWER OIL PRICE THIS DAY), CITES THIS DAYS SHORT-COVERING RALLY AND
RECOMEMMENDS MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS (POSITIVE CURRENCY
TRANSLATION) AND OVERSEAS NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES (UTILITIES, ETC.).
YET aNOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST CITES BUSINESS MODELS COMPARABLE TO BEAR STEARNS
IN FINANCIAL SECTOR(PROBLEMS WITH HEDGE FUNDS/INVESTMENT BANKS) WHICH HAS
PROVEN INABILITY TO MANAGE THEIR OWN AFFAIRS SAYING DEREGULATION A DISASTER AND
REREGULATION A CURE, NO END TO FALL IN DOLLAR AS US BECOMES WORLD’S BEGGAR, AND
RECOMMENDS NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES (IE., EURO, SWISS FRANC, ETC., AND
EMERGING FAR EAST MARKETS). aNOTHER MORE CALIFORNIA/SENILE, ANALYST/BROKER WHO
LIKE OTHERS HAVE LOST SUBSTANTIAL MONIES FOR CLIENTS CITES LACK OF OF
TRANSPARENCY AS VALUE OF HIS BUYS AND HOLDS CONTINUES TO FALL WITH DOLLAR BUT
TALKS SOME SPECULATIVE BUYS AND CASH. A FINANCIAL TIMES EDITOR SAYS NO BOTTOM
YET, THAT BY HISTORICAL STANDARDS THE SCENARIO IS QUITE BAD FOR THE US, THAT
BEAR STEARNS WAS NOT ALONE AMONG US FIRMS IN THEIR PROBLEMS, THAT THE MARKET IS
EXPECTING 1% PANIC CUT BY FED, AND THAT THE US ECONOMY IS IN DEEP TROUBLE. 3-14-08 early surge based
on false benign inflation report (showing no change in retail inflation) from
the government gives way to reality that they can’t cover up/lie about (despite
intra-day suckers rally) when there is a run on large wall street investment
bank bear stearns (first such since the great depression) which cites liquidity
crisis as ny fed and jp morgan intervene with 28 day loan as bear is holding
high risk (worthless) assets which are illiquid (thinly traded/can’t be sold)
as reserves (they are not alone in this regard among the frauds on wallstreet,
etc., and only 2 days ago bear said balance sheet stable), all time lows for
the dollar, wsj reports majority of economists think we’re in recession,
michigan (non-washington non-fed gov’t report) sentiment index at new 16 year
low. One ANALYST SAYS DOLLAR WEAKNESS/LOWER YIELDS/ECONOMIC CONCERNS WILL
CONTINUE DOWNWARD TREND, INFLATION REPORT SURPRISE/FOOLISH AND HIGHER INFLATION
NUMBER FOR MARCH, CRESCENDO OF BAD NEWS IN COMING WEEK AND LOOK FOR NEW
LOWS/BOTTOM(?). OIL ANALYST CITES WEAK DOLLAR/EASY MONEY FLOWS AND SAYS LOOK
FOR OIL AT $120-$125. ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS ITS TOO LATE FOR FED TO TURN THIS
WRITEDOWN/SUBPRIME/ECONOMIC DOWNTURN AROUND WITH BEAR ANOTHER $35-$70 BILLION
BAD AND WHAT AFTER 28 DAY LOAN-EXPECT TAKEOVER/NO MORE BEAR STEARNS. 3-13-08 SMART MONEY WOULD SELL INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY (TAKE
PROFITS) WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T ALONE (NOTHING WHATSOEVER) AS STANDARD
AND POORS ANALYST SAYS THE END OF WRITEDOWNS MIGHT (BUT NOT QUITE) BE IN
SIGHT (WHICH IS LIKE THAT BROKER WHO
SELLS STOCKS FOR A LIVING SAYING HE’S TRYING TO KEEP CLIENTS IN STOCKS BECAUSE
AT SOME POINT THEY’LL GO UP)…RIIIIIGHT….. WHICH IS MEANINGLESS COMING FROM
STANDARD AND POORS WHICH SHOULD BE ACCOUNTABLE/LIABLE (FOR THIS FRAUD) ALONG
WITH THE FRAUDS ON WALL STREET, ETC., FOR THE TRIPLE A RATED SECURITIES ON THE
BOOKS WHICH EVERYONE KNOWS ARE IN FACT NOT TRIPLE A (WORTHLESS JUNK BONDS,
ASSETS, ETC.) SPURRING 200+ POINT SWING TO THE UPSIDE. VAST MAJORITY OF
ECONOMISTS NOW SAY WE’RE IN RECESSION (EVEN DESPITE ELECTION YEAR GIMMICKS-AS
GOOD AS GETS). RETAIL SALES DOWN MORE THAN EXPECTED .6%, FORECLOSURES UP 60%
YEAR OVER YEAR, DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY. ONE ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED
UNEMPLOYMENT/EMPLOYMENT WEAKNESS, PREMATURE TO SAY AS DID S&P THAT WE’RE
NEAR END OF WRITEDOWNS, MAJORITY OF ECONOMISTS NOW SAY WE’RE IN RECESSION,
HOUSING DOWNTURN MUCH FURTHER TO GO, VERY DEFENSIVE AS STOCKS CONTINUE TO HIT
NEW LOWS IN LARGE NUMBERS, WORST OF HOUSING CRISIS AHEAD, AND THIS IS A BEAR
MARKET IN A RECESSION ECONOMY. ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS U.S. CURRENT ACCOUNT
DEFICITS, LACK OF TRUST IN U.S. FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND TRIPLE A RATINGS
(BONDS, ETC., WHICH EVERYONE KNOWS ARE NOT), BANKS’ NEED FOR RECAPITALIZATION,
LOW SAVINGS (IE., CONSUMERS USING IE., GIFT CARDS FOR GROCERIES, ETC.), FED
LOSING CREDIBILITY BY FLIP-FLOPS/WRONG MOVES, AND SEES ONLY SHORT-COVERING
RALLIES AT BEST. VENEZUELA SHIFT TO PAYMENT IN EUROS FOR OIL OUT OF DOLLARS.
YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST SAYS WITH MONEY SUPPLY INCREASING AT EXORBITANT 27% PER
ANNUM, CITING ECONOMIST FRIEDMAN SAYS HYPER-INFLATIONARY (CONTRARY TO LAND OF
FRUITS AND NUTS ECONOMISTS WHO THIS DAY SEE LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS REAL ESTATE
DOWN 17.6%, SALES DOWN 40-45%, AND MEDIAN HOME PRICES DOWN $100,000, AND BUDGET
DEFICITS ACROSS THE BOARD). 3-12-08 VERY MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY,
DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY ON PANICKY FED KNEE JERK FUNNY MONEY ACTION, ONE
ANALYST/BROKER WHO SELLS STOCKS FOR A LIVING SAYS HE’S TRYING TO KEEP CLIENTS
IN STOCKS BECAUSE AT SOME POINT THEY’LL GO UP…..RIIIIIGHT…..REFERENCES THAT
THIS IS WORST R.E. DOWNTURN IN 100 YEARS AND NO BOTTOM YET IN R.E. AND WSJ SAYS
WORSE TO COME IN BAD PAPER (WRITEDOWNS, ETC.), AN OIL ANALYST SAYS RECORD HIGH
OIL PRICES ARE HEDGE AGAINST FALLING DOLLAR WITH A LOT OF DOLLARS RELATIVE TO
GOODS (AS IE., OIL, OTHER COMMODITIES, ETC.-HYPERINFLATION) AND IF YOU HOLD
DOLLARS/DOLLAR DENOMINATED ASSETS/SECURITIES YOU LOSE VALUE AND SEES $4.00 GAS
NATIONWIDE WITH RECORD DIESEL, WHILE ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS THAT SEEING FED GO
FROM LENDER OF LAST RESORT TO LENDER (PRINTER) OF FIRST RESORT IS
WORRISOME/TROUBLESOME. 3-11-08 Suckers’ bear
market irrationally exuberant new EPHEMERAL bubble rally on fed fear and trembling panic move TO ADD $200 BILLION IN WORLDWIDE LIQUIDITY
BY TEMPORARILY REPLACING (28 DAYS) ONE TYPE OF FUNNY-MONEY (WORTHLESS SUBPRIME
COLLATERALIZED DEBT) WITH ANOTHER LONGER TERM WORTHLESS FUNNY-MONEY (U.S. DEBT
WHICH CAN’T BE PAID BACK) WHICH IS A GREAT B.S. TALKING POINT BUT JUST A DROP
IN THE BUCKET CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UNDISCLOSED WRITEDOWNS/WORTHLESS
PAPER BEING HELD(AND, CURING A BUBBLE WITH A NEW BUBBLE-I DON'T THINK SO), ONE
ANALYST POINTS TO THE HYPERINFLATIONARY EFFECTS OF TOO MUCH LIQUIDITY CHASING
TOO FEW GOODS AND MORE BAD NEWS TO COME IN TECH SECTOR AND EARNINGS ALONG WITH
MORE WRITEOFFS/WRITEDOWNS WITH WORSE TO COME/NO BOTTOM YET AND HE REMAINS A
BEAR, LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS ECONOMIST SAYS BAD BUT NOT TECHNICALLY RECESSION
BASED ON GOVERNMENT ELECTION-YEAR DATA (ONLY NUTS AND NUTS FROM THE LAND OF
FRUITS AND NUTS BELIEVE SAME) WHILE TWO OTHER ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH
STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS/HIGH INFLATION/LOWER DOLLAR AS FOREIGNERS/INVESTORS GET OUT
OF WORTHLESS DOLLAR WITH BIG TROUBLE FOR U.S. POST-ELECTION AS REALITY SETS IN,
TRADE GAP WIDENED, AND SMART MONEY WOULD SELL THIS RALLY/TAKE PROFITS. 3-10-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY,
NEW BANK DOWNGRADES, MORGAN SLASHES EARNINGS ESTIMATES FOR S&P AND SAYS
ALREADY IN RECESSION, EVEN MORE ECONOMISTS NOW SAY THE OBVIOUS/RECESSION, RUMOR
THAT BEAR STERNS WITH SUBSTANTIAL LIQUIDITY ISSUES IS GOING UNDER, DOLLAR DOWN,
EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT ON CITIBANK AND BANKOFAMERICA, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS (HYPERINFLATIONARY) HIGH ENERGY AND FOOD PRICES (CONVENIENTLY LEFT OUT OF
THE FED’S “TOUTED” CORE RATE) ARE SQUEEZING THE CONSUMER (AND HENCE, CONSUMPTION/65%
OF GDP) AND THAT COMMODITIES A BUBBLE AND MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS
EARNINGS/POSITVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO WEAKER DOLLAR PREFERRED, AN OIL
ANALYST SAYS $200 OIL POSSIBLE (REITERATING GOLDMAN) WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING
OF DOLLAR, ANOTHER ANALYST/JOURNALIST SAYS SELL DOLLAR DENOMINATED
STOCKS/SECURITIES/ASSETS WHICH HAVE MUCH FURTHER TO FALL AND REITERATES AS DID
BARRON’S THAT MORTGAGE INSURERS HAVE OVER $5 TRILLION IN DEBT/EXPOSURE AND THAT
MANY OF THE NATIONS BANKS ARE ALREADY INSOLVENT SO GET OUT OF THE DOLLAR AND
U.S. STOCKS. 3-7-08 BAD
EMPLOYMENT/JOBS DATA across ALL SECTORS AS 63,000 JOBS LOST WITH DOWNWARD
REVISIONS TO DECEMBER AND JANUARY (ACTUALLY LOST 20,000) JOBS NUMBERS, ONE
ANALYST SAYS WE’RE IN A RECESSION WHILE MORE ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH ONE
STATING THAT YOU ALMOST NEVER SEE BACK-TO-BACK MONTHLY DECLINE IN EMPLOYMENT
WITHOUT RECESSION AS NOW, DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOWS, CONSUMERS INCREASED
BORROWING TO STAY AFLOAT, WASHINGTON MUTUAL FURTHER DOWNGRADES, SUPPORT LEVELS
BROKEN TO THE DOWNSIDE, sentiment- 85% believe things will get worse. 3-6-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY
TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS
FLOWING. 23% INCREASE IN FORECLOSURES IN
FOURTH QUARTER NEW RECORD HIGH, DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOWS, 10% OF HOMES WITH 0
OR NEGATIVE EQUITY, MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION SAYS HOME FORECLOSURES AT
ALL-TIME HIGH AND GOING HIGHER, ONE R.E. ANALYST SAYS ROUGH YEAR AHEAD WITH
FORECLOSURES AND DEFAULTS UP, ONE ANALYST SAYS MARKET WILL TEST NEW
LOWS/SUPPORT LEVELS WITH FLIGHT TO “QUALITY”/TREASURIES, LENDER THORNBURG
DEFAULTS AND ALONG WITH WASHINGTON MUTUAL IS DOWNGRADED, CONTINUING CLAIMS FOR
UNEMPLOYMENT AT HIGH LEVELS MEANS COMPANIES SHRINKING, IGNORE KNEE-JERK
ELECTION YEAR GOVERNMENT HUNKY DORY FAKE REPORTS. 3-5-08 OIL INVENTORIES LESS THAN EXPECTED, FED
BEIGE BOOK CITES ECONOMIC WEAKNESS PARTICULARLY SINCE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR,
LABOR COSTS ROSE, RISING PRICE PRESSURES/STAGFLATION, RECESSION/BEAR MARKET,
ONE ANALYST SAYS TOUGH FIRST HALF RECOMMENDS MULTINATIONALS WITH 50% OVERSEAS
EARNINGS (FAVORABLE CURRENCY TRANSLATION) AND CONSUMER STAPLES/HEALTH
RELATED/DEFENSIVE STOCKS, AMBAC TO FLOAT STOCK TO SHORE UP BALANCE SHEET TO
TUNE OF $1.5 BILLION/DILUTION AND
SHARES FALL $2 TO $8.70, OIL ANALYST CITES DECLINE IN OIL
INVENTORIES/DIESEL/JET FUEL AND WEAK DOLLAR AND TOP $108-$110 BUT $120-$130 IF
VENEZUELA/COLUMBIA CONFLICT AND MORE RECORD HIGH GAS PRICES TO COME, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DECLINE IN REAL ESTATE/HOUSING WITH STARTS
DOWN 15-20-40% ON WELL DESERVED PESSIMISM/CREDIT CRUNCH. 3-4-08 Suckers’ bear market rally into the close
based on b**l s**t alone, viz., rumor/speculation about yet another bailout for
wall street/ambac/bond insurers and over 200 point swing to the upside based on
nothing whatsoever, one economist/analyst notes this is the deepest housing
decline since great depression, bernanke says another spike in foreclosures
ahead and proposes reduction of principal amounts in existing loans (sounds
like a plan…..riiiiight!), ken shreve finance editor investors business daily
says bear market 6-9 months/ don’t try to catch a falling knife as institutions
still selling/keep money safe in 3% money market for time being, one oil
analyst says oil higher before lower as expected rate cut will further weaken
dollar and drive up oil/commodities prices and problems in consumer debt in
addition to mortgages and nobody wants to hold dollars, 3-3-08 Suckers’ bear
market rally into the close, yes we are in a recession from someone who unlike
the frauds on wall street has read security analysis by graham, dodd, and
cottle and understands it (warren buffet), all news
negative, ie., ism manufacturing index down to 48.3 (contraction), car sales
down at gm (-12%) and ford (-7%), construction spending down most in 14 years,
oil analysts point to the new highs while economist/analyst says dollar has
fallen through all support levels meaning more bottoms to come, INFLATION
OUTPACING CONSUMER SPENDING (EVEN WITH SPENDING NUMBER HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
WHICH PROBABLY MEANS REALITY WAS NEGATIVE), CONSUMER CONFIDENCE/SENTIMENT DOWN
SHARPLY, CHICAGO MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN INDICATING CONTRACTION, $5.29 BILLION
LOSS FOR AIG ON WRITEOFFS, INTRA DAY HIGH FOR OIL OVER $103, INFLATION/WEAK
DOLLAR/ECONOMIC WEAKNESS=STAGFLATION, FOURTH MONTHLY DECLINE IN A ROW FOR STOCK
MARKET, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST IF NOT THEN ALMOST IN RECESSION WITH WORSE
INFLATION NEWS AND INFLATION ADJUSTED INCOME/SPENDING FLAT, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION AND CITES NEGATIVE SAVINGS RATE AND FURTHER
ECONOMIC WEAKNESS, ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED ECONOMIC WEAKNESS WITH FURTHER DOLLAR
DECLINE SO BULLISH ON METALS AND BEARISH ON STOCKS, AND YET ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS INFLATION/RECESSION BUT NOT DEPRESSION…..RIIIIIGHT, GDP
GROWTH REPORTED MUCH LESS THAN EXPECTED (BUT CLOSER TO REALITY) AT
MINISCULE .6%, UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS JUMP
19,000 TO 373,000 AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE POST KATRINA, BERNANKE SAYS CONSUMER
WORSE OFF THAN JUST AFTER 911(?) AND THAT SOME BANKS COULD (WILL) FAIL AND THAT
STAGFLATION WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS THE 70’S, FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC SHOW
MASSIVE LOSSES, ONE ANALYST 50 YEARS IN THE BUSINESS SEES RECESSION AND SAYS
FINANCIALS HAVE BECOME IMPENETRABLE IN TERMS OF ANALYSIS/LOSSES, ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS WE’RE NOWHERE NEAR IMPROVEMENT IN R.E./HOUSING MARKET, YET ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION WITH HIGHER INFLATION LOWER GROWTH
(STAGFLATION) AND THAT FED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN WRONG AND ONLY RECESSION TO
BRING DOWN INFLATION, new record LOW
FOR DOLLAR AGAINST EURO AND SWISS FRANC (AND EVEN WORTH LESS THAN THE LOWLY
CANADIAN LOONEY, ETC.) WHICH ALONG WITH DEFICIT SPENDING IS HYPERINFLATIONARY
AS OIL SEES NEW INTRADAY HIGH OF $102.64, SALES/ORDERS OF DURABLE GOODS DOWN
MORE THAN EXPECTED 5.3%, BERNANKE’S NEGATIVE COMMENTS ON GREENSPAN RECESSION
PROMISES RATE CUTS FOR NEW BUBBLE WHICH RALLIES STOCKS, ONE ANALYST SAYS BANKS
AS THEIR OWN INSURERS INCREASES RISK, ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DEFICIT
SPENDING INCREASES INFLATIONARY PROBLEMS/RISK, FORECLOSURES/BANK REPO’S UP 90%
YEAR OVER YEAR, REGULATORS PREDICT OVER 100 BANK FAILURES, FORECLOSURES UP 57%
IN JANUARY, WHOLESALE INFLATION UP MUCH HIGHER THAN EXPECTED 7.5% (CORE RATE
4+%), 9% DROP IN HOME VALUES/PRICES, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOWN TO 17 YEAR LOW,
ELECTION YEAR/PROTECT INCOMPETENT INCUMBENT GOV’T PRINTING WORTHLESS DOLLARS
LIKE MAD WITH EXCESS LIQUIDITY CHASING TOO FEW GOODS (IE., FOOD UP 6%, ETC.)
WHICH IS HYPER-INFLATIONARY, ECONOMIST/ANALYST DR. KELLNER SAYS EASIER MONEY/FISCAL
PACKAGE WON’T REFLATE HOUSING MARKET (RECESSION), ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS IN BEAR
MARKET/RECESSION RECOMMENDS DEFENSIVE/PREFERRED STOCKS/BONDS/CASH, DR. SHILLER-
CASE-SHILLER INDEX- HOME VALUES CONTINUED DECLINE AND IN OR ABOUT TO ENTER
RECESSION (that’s already here), Stiglitz
Blames Greenspan For Recession, IBM ON $15 BILLION BUYBACK AND JAWBONING
AND SIGNIFICANT OVERSEAS SALES (AND POSITIVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO THE WORTHLESS
DOLLAR) RALLIES MARKET (WHAT BULL S**T), SHARPLY LOWER
AND MORE WORTHLESS DOLLAR/HIGH OIL PRICE RALLY CREATES YET ANOTHER B.S. SWING
OF OVER 200 POINTS TO THE UPSIDE, FOOD PRICES UP 6% ON ETHANOL CROWD-OUT, HOME SALES DOWN 5.5% / MEDIAN SALES PRICE
DOWN 4.6%, ONE R.E. EXPERT SAYS WITH SALES FALLING AND FORECLOSURES RISING
WORSE YET TO COME, LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS FELL FOR FOURTH MONTH IN A ROW
(-.1%), PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX UNEXPECTEDLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER (The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index fell to a -24, indicating a sharp
contraction in the region's manufacturing activity. Economists had anticipated
a reading of -10, a less pronounced contraction. Last month the reading came in
at -20.9.), ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS SIGNIFICANT INFLATION AND
UNEMPLOYMENT-STAGFLATION-AHEAD ALONG WITH CONTINUED DEFLATION OF HOUSING BUBBLE
WITH NATIONWIDE AVERAGE PRICE DECLINE OF 8-10% AND ANOTHER DECLINE OF 15-20% TO
COME. MODEST DROP
RELATIVE TO REALITY TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED
AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING. (3-26-08) (DOW -110, NASDAQ -17, S&P -12) [CLOSE-
OIL $106/ GOLD $949.20 / SILVER $18.38 / PLATINUM $2,000 / DOLLAR= .6311 EURO,
98 YEN, .498 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE
YIELD 3.46%]. I WARNED AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING
DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND
NOW I WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME
(SELL INTO STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL). GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL
INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY (TAKE PROFITS). REALITY: THIS IS A BEAR MARKET IN A SECULAR BEAR MARKET IN A
RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A SECULAR (AND QUITE PERMANENT-THEY’VE MADE ALL THE WRONG
CHOICES) ECONOMIC DOWNTREND IN THE U.S. ONE ANALYST/REPORTER/ JOURNALIST FROM INSIDE
SOURCES PEGS THE SUB-PRIME DOLLAR VALUE OF THE SHILLED WORTHLESS PAPER AT $516
TRILLION (EVEN A PERCENTAGE OF SAME RENDERS THE PROBLEM UNFIXABLE-HENCE,
CULPABLE PARTIES MUST BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE AND DISGORGE THEIR ILL-GOTTEN GAINS
FROM, IE., COMMISSIONING WORTHLESS PAPER, TAKING A POINT HERE OR THERE AND
FRAUDULENTLY PASSING SAME ON, AD INFINITUM, ETC.). Time to put the wall street
among other corporate frauds in jail and require fines, penalties and
disgorgement of their ill-gotten gains. [Please note: I seldom name
analysts/reporters/journalists bearing not so glad tidings for fear they’ll be
crucified by the frauds on wall street]. (3-25-08) (DOW -16, NASDAQ +14, S&P +3) [CLOSE- OIL
$101.22 / GOLD $935 / SILVER $17.80 / PLATINUM $1,985.90 / DOLLAR= .639 EURO,
99.85 YEN, .498 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE
YIELD 3.51%]. GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL (TAKE PROFITS) THIS
SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY INTO THE CLOSE
WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T AND
NOTHING BUT BAD ECONOMIC NEWS AS WALL STREET FRAUDS ATTEMPT TO WINDOW DRESS REALISTICALLY DISMAL FIRST
QUARTER NUMBERS TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND COMPUTERIZED PROGRAM TRADE
COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING. DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY. earnings downgrade for merrill
lynch/financials and reluctance to take mark-to-market loss (prompted bear
bailout) scuttles(?) clear channel deal. GOVERNMENT HIRING NEW (FDIC) BANK
REGULATORS FOR INCREASING BANK FAILURES. S&P CASE SHILLER INDEX REGISTERS
SHARPEST HOUSING PRICE DECLINE ON RECORD AT –11.4%, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
DOWN TO 5 YR. LOW OF 65 WHICH IS SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW EXPECTED 73, AND EXPECTATIONS
INDEX AT LOWEST SINCE 1973. KEN SHREVE OF IBD POINTS TO VOLUME (COMMISSION
GENERATING COMPUTERIZED PROGRAMMED TRADES SIMULATING DEMAND) AS A GOOD
SIGN…RIIIIIGHT…CITES SELLING PRESSURE ON THE WAY UP AND SAYS WAIT AND SEE AS
NEW LEADERSHIP DEVELOPS…RIIIIIGHT (WHICH TRANSLATED MEANS HE DOESN’T KNOW WHERE
THIS IRRATIONALLY EXUBERANT MARKET IS GOING. S&P CASE SHILLER ANALYST/VP
SAYS HOME PRICES IN DECLINE WHICH ACCELERATED IN THE LAST 6-9 MONTHS AND SEES
–20%/TROUGH IN LATE 2008. R.E. ANALYST DOESN’T SEE BOTTOM PARTICULARLY IN SO.
CALIFORNIA (IE., LA, SAN DIEGO, ETC.) (MIAMI, LAS VEGAS, PHOENIX VERY BAD). AN
ECONOMIST SAYS ANOTHER YEAR OF DECLINES SINCE CONSUMER SPENDING/CONFIDENCE HAS
WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY. CALIFORNIA BUREAUCRAT (THAT’S ALL THERE IS) SAYS TOUGH
TIMES AHEAD, POINTS TO UPSIDE DOWN CONDITIONS (MORTGAGE LOANS GREATER THAN
PROPERTY VALUES) AND SAYS HOUSE OF CARDS. ANOTHER ECONOMIST SAYS MORE EROSION
ON THE PRICE SIDE,-20%, AND A WAYS TO GO. R.E. PROF. SAYS SLIDE TO CONTINUE
UNTIL EXCESS SUPPLY IS CLEARED. 3-24-08 GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL
INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET/SHORT-COVERING RALLY (TAKE PROFITS) WHICH IS
BASED UPON B**L S**T AND NO REAL
ECONOMIC NEWS AS WALL STREET FRAUDS IN LAST DITCH EFFORT TO WINDOW DRESS
REALISTICALLY DISMAL FIRST QUARTER NUMBERS TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND
COMPUTERIZED PROGRAM TRADE COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING. THE
ELECTION-YEAR-INDUCED RALLY FAKE NEWS PUSHED BY THE WALL STREET FRAUDS IS A
MEAGER TWO-FOLD; VIZ., EXISTING HOME SALES INCREASED (JAN.-FEB.) 2.9% EXCEEDING
SUBSTANTIALLY ECONOMISTS’ PREDICTIONS AND J.P. MORGAN WILLING TO PAY $10
INSTEAD OF $2 PER SHARE FOR FAILED INVESTMENT BANK BEAR STEARNS. REALITY:
INCREASED SALES DUE TO INCREASED FORECLOSURE SALES; PRICES DOWN 8.2%; MEDIAN
HOME PRICE FELL MOST EVER ON RECORD; INCREASED BEAR MONEY TO PLACATE
SHAREHOLDERS DESPERATE MOVE TO KEEP WORTHLESS SECURITIES FROM BEING DUMPED IN
MARKET WHERE SAME CAN’T BE SOLD AND WHERE SUCH WOULD RESULT IN OTHER SUCH BEING
MARKED TO MARKET (PENNIES ON A DOLLAR). ONE ANALYST SAYS NOTHING FUNDAMENTALLY
HAS CHANGED, DAY TO DAY TRADING ON DAY’S NEWS AND TODAY A HAPPY (NON) NEWS
DAY…RIIIIIGHT…AND RECOMMENDS FOR PROTECTION NON-U.S. ASSETS/SECURITIES, METALS,
AND BIG CAP TECH/MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS (POSITIVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION).
AN ECONOMIST SAYS THE FED’S CONFUSING DEAL PROTECTS ITS OWN MONEY BY
ESSENTIALLY PROVIDING A “BRIDGE LOAN” TO PREVENT THE WORTHLESS SECURITIES FROM
BEING DUMPED WHERE THERE IS NO MARKET FOR SAME CAUSING FURTHER WRITEDOWNS
across THE BOARD ON MARK TO MARKET. ANOTHER ANALYST EMPHASIZES DISFUNCTIONAL
BANKING/CONTINUED WRITEDOWNS/LOSSES/BALANCE SHEET PROBLEMS FOR FINANCIAL
INSTITUTIONS/WE’VE NOT SEEN THE BOTTOM, IN RECOMMENDING TAKING SOME PROFITS
WITH ELECTION YEAR STIMULUS CREATING INFLATIONARY PROBLEMS, THOUGH STILL IN
BEAR MARKET THE REAL DECLINE AND REAL RECESSION (WE’RE ALREADY IN RECESSION) TO
COME POST ELECTION/2009 AND THE INTERMEDIATE TERM IS VERY SCARY. ONE R.E.
ANALYST SAYS ONE THIRD OF EXISTING HOME SALES WERE FORECLOSURES WITH OVERSUPPLY
OF PROPERTIES WHICH WILL TAKE A LONG TIME TO WORK OUT WHILE ANOTHER r.e.
ANALYST SAYS YEARS TO WORK OUT WITH ONLY LIMITED IMPROVEMENT LATE 2009. 3-20-08 FULL
MOON WITH OBVIOUS EFFECT ON LUNATIC WALL STREET FRAUDS. SMART MONEY
WOULD SELL INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET/SHORT-COVERING RALLY (TAKE PROFITS)
WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T AND EXCEEDINGLY BAD ECONOMIC NEWS VIZ.,
UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS UP MUCH MORE THAN EXPECTED 22,000 TO HIGH 378,000, CREDIT
SWISSE TO REVISE PREVIOUS YEARS PROFITS DOWN ON FURTHER WRITEDOWNS,
PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN,
AND LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS DOWN FOR FIFTH MONTH IN A ROW WHICH HAS
ALWAYS SIGNALED/INDICATED/PRECEDED ECONOMIC DOWNTURN/CONTRACTION/RECESSION. ONE
SOMEWHAT SENILE ANALYST WELCOMED THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF FAKE/FIAT/PRINTED MONEY
SAYING THE FINANCIALS WHICH HAVE LAGGED THE MARKET BY 20% WILL BE
HELPED/INFLATED OUT OF THEIR DOLDRUMS (HYPERINFLATIONARY) BY SAME WHICH HE
LIKES BECAUSE HE’S HEAVILY CONCENTRATED IN FINANCIALS (GREAT CALL) AND THAT THE
MONEY HASN’T SHOWN UP YET BUT FAILS TO REALIZE THE U.S. HAS NEVER BEEN IN SUCH
DIRE CIRCUMSTANCES ECONOMICALLY, FINANCIALLY, AND GEOPOLITICALLY AS NOW. A MORE
RATIONAL VIEW BY ECONOMIST DR. IRVING KELLNER SAID STIMULUS THUS FAR TREATS
SYMPTOMS WITH MERE BANDAIDS WHICH FAIL TO ADDRESS/CURE THE
PROBLEM/CAUSE/DISEASE AND IS RATHER SIMPLISTIC TO A FAULT IN FOCUSING SOLELY ON
HOUSING/REAL ESTATE VALUES ALTHOUGH CORRECTLY STATES THAT EASIER MONEY WILL NOT
ENHANCE THE VALUE OF MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES WHICH REMAIN INDETERMINANT,
DOWN, OR GOING DOWN AND ADVOCATES DEPRESSION ERA APPROACH SINCE HE CORRECTLY
STATES ECONOMY HAS ALREADY (DECEMBER,
2007 OR JANUARY, 2008) ENTERED THE WORST RECESSION OF THE POST-WAR ERA (DESPITE
ELECTION YEAR SPIN). ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS THIS IS A SHORT-COVERING RALLY AND AN
OPPORTUNITY TO SELL/TAKE PROFITS (i TOTALLY AGREE), THAT THE FED DESPERATION
MOVES INCLUDING PRINTING DOLLARS LIKE MAD
HAVE LED TO A DEBASEMENT OF THE U.S. CURRENCY AND THAT THE DOLLAR WILL
CONTINUE TO GO LOWER, THAT TRILLIONS HAVE BEEN BORROWED BUT THAT THEY WILL BE
UNSUCCESSFUL IN REINFLATING THE BUBBLE, THAT THE FINANCIAL CRISIS IS NO WHERE
NEAR BEING OVER WITH MUCH MORE CARNAGE TO COME, AND RECOMMENDS BEING TOTALLY
OUT OF THE DOLLAR INCLUDING DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES AND INTO OTHER
FOREIGN CURRENCIES/SECURITIES. 3-19-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO
REALITY. I WARNED AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA
BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I
WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL
INTO STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL). morgan stanley earnings down 40% but better
than expected…..riiiiight…..on computerized bond/stock trading commissions.
merrill lynch says more loan losses. one analyst says not much optimism
regarding fed moves, deepening fears about economy, wall street stuck with a
lot of stuff (ie., junk bonds, junk securities, junk derivatives, subprime
mortgages, etc.) which can’t be sold except at firesale prices, avoid equities
particularly small/midcaps, raise cash (taking profits/selling), looking for
confirmation, entered recession in february but with inflation a very tough
scenario. an oil analyst says commodity bubble bursting with profit-taking/path
of least resistance but still record diesel at $4.21, record home heating oil
$3.80 so wait and see. another analyst says emerging markets attractive
relative to developed citing p/e multiple comparison but no save haven and
points to further weakness in dollar relative to other currencies. metals
analyst says rate cut less than expected and etfs (and computerized trading
thereof) has propped demand. 3-18-08 Suckers’
bear market irrationally exuberant bubble rally on fed fear and trembling panic
move TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION
TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING. I WARNED
AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I
WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST
INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO
STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL). WHOLESALE/PRODUCER
PRICES UP MORE THAN EXPECTED .3% WITH CORE RATE UP .5%. HOUSING STARTS DOWN 36%
TO LOWEST LEVEL IN 17 YEARS. SHARPLY (MORE THAN 50%) LOWER EARNINGS AT GOLDMAN
AND LEHMAN RALLIES THEIR STOCKS WITH FAMILIAR MANTRA ‘NOT AS BAD AS
EXPECTED’…..RIIIIIGHT! DOLLAR DOWN AGAINST MOST CURRENCIES ON .75% PANIC CUT IN
FED FUNDS RATE TO 2.25%. ONE ANALYST POINTS TO STRENGTH BY SECTOR, VIZ.,
FINANCIALS +8% (FOCUS OF THE BAILOUT), SMALL CAPS +5%, EMERGING MARKETS +5%,
AND SAYS DOLLAR WILL BE BOTTOMING. AN OIL ANALYST SAYS OIL TO GO HIGHER WITH
INFLUX OF SPECULATIVE NEW MONEY FROM RATE CUT. FORMER FED GOVERNOR GRAMLEY SAY
WE’RE IN SERIOUS ECONOMIC CRISIS, IN RECESSION WITH ECONOMIC WEAKNESS
SUFFICIENT TO MUTE DEMAND/SHARPER PRICE INCREASES, AND COMPARES ECONOMY TO
CANCER PATIENT UNDERGOING NECESSARY CHEMOTHERAPY…..RIIIIIGHT….., FED HAS USED
EMERGENCY POWERS NOT USED SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION BUT CAN’T RELY SOLELY ON
THE FED. ANOTHER ANALYST TALKS IN TERMS OF TRADING ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS
(FACT-THERE ARE HISTORICALLY VERY FEW SUCCESSFUL TRADERS), BELIEVES FED WENT
TOO FAR WITH RATE CUT AND SEES SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM WITH INFLATION, THUMBS UP
FOR METALS/OIL AND LARGE CAP TECH WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS, BUT FURTHER CAUTIONS
OWING TO NEGATIVE REAL INTEREST RATES (RATES LESS THAN INFLATION, RISK,
ECONOMIC FACTORS/PREMIUMS). FINALLY, THINGS ARE SO HUNKY DORY THAT AS REPORTED
BY CONTINENTAL COIN AND JEWELRY PEOPLE ARE PULLING THEIR TEETH, EXTRACTING AND
SELLING THE GOLD. LOVELY! 3-17-08 LUNATIC/FRAUDS
200+ point computerized BUY PROGRAM suckers’ bear market/short-covering rally
to the upside based upon nothing whatsoever that hasn’t already been discounted
(ie., more rate cuts by fed in panic mode, etc.). I WARNED AGAINST THE
DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF
THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN
DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL).
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FELL A GREATER THAN EXPECTED ONE-HALF OF 1%. ONE ANALYST
CITES NEW LOWS FOR DOLLAR AND SUBSTANTIAL MOVE BY FED ALREADY DISCOUNTED
(.75%). ANOTHER ANALYST CITES WEAKER DOLLAR AND SLOWER ECONOMY IMPACTING DEMAND
(IE., FOR GOODS, ETC., AND HENCE, COMMODITY PRICES, HENCE LOWER OIL PRICE THIS
DAY), CITES THIS DAYS SHORT-COVERING RALLY AND RECOMEMMENDS MULTINATIONALS WITH
OVERSEAS EARNINGS (POSITIVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION) AND OVERSEAS NON-DOLLAR
DENOMINATED SECURITIES (UTILITIES, ETC.). YET aNOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST CITES
BUSINESS MODELS COMPARABLE TO BEAR STEARNS IN FINANCIAL SECTOR(PROBLEMS WITH
HEDGE FUNDS/INVESTMENT BANKS) WHICH HAS PROVEN INABILITY TO MANAGE THEIR OWN
AFFAIRS SAYING DEREGULATION A DISASTER AND REREGULATION A CURE, NO END TO FALL
IN DOLLAR AS US BECOMES WORLD’S BEGGAR, AND RECOMMENDS NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED
SECURITIES (IE., EURO, SWISS FRANC, ETC., AND EMERGING FAR EAST MARKETS).
aNOTHER MORE CALIFORNIA/SENILE, ANALYST/BROKER WHO LIKE OTHERS HAVE LOST
SUBSTANTIAL MONIES FOR CLIENTS CITES LACK OF OF TRANSPARENCY AS VALUE OF HIS
BUYS AND HOLDS CONTINUES TO FALL WITH DOLLAR BUT TALKS SOME SPECULATIVE BUYS
AND CASH. A FINANCIAL TIMES EDITOR SAYS NO BOTTOM YET, THAT BY HISTORICAL
STANDARDS THE SCENARIO IS QUITE BAD FOR THE US, THAT BEAR STEARNS WAS NOT ALONE
AMONG US FIRMS IN THEIR PROBLEMS, THAT THE MARKET IS EXPECTING 1% PANIC CUT BY
FED, AND THAT THE US ECONOMY IS IN DEEP TROUBLE. 3-14-08 early surge based
on false benign inflation report (showing no change in retail inflation) from
the government gives way to reality that they can’t cover up/lie about (despite
intra-day suckers rally) when there is a run on large wall street investment
bank bear stearns (first such since the great depression) which cites liquidity
crisis as ny fed and jp morgan intervene with 28 day loan as bear is holding
high risk (worthless) assets which are illiquid (thinly traded/can’t be sold)
as reserves (they are not alone in this regard among the frauds on wallstreet,
etc., and only 2 days ago bear said balance sheet stable), all time lows for
the dollar, wsj reports majority of economists think we’re in recession,
michigan (non-washington non-fed gov’t report) sentiment index at new 16 year
low. One ANALYST SAYS DOLLAR WEAKNESS/LOWER YIELDS/ECONOMIC CONCERNS WILL
CONTINUE DOWNWARD TREND, INFLATION REPORT SURPRISE/FOOLISH AND HIGHER INFLATION
NUMBER FOR MARCH, CRESCENDO OF BAD NEWS IN COMING WEEK AND LOOK FOR NEW
LOWS/BOTTOM(?). OIL ANALYST CITES WEAK DOLLAR/EASY MONEY FLOWS AND SAYS LOOK
FOR OIL AT $120-$125. ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS ITS TOO LATE FOR FED TO TURN THIS
WRITEDOWN/SUBPRIME/ECONOMIC DOWNTURN AROUND WITH BEAR ANOTHER $35-$70 BILLION
BAD AND WHAT AFTER 28 DAY LOAN-EXPECT TAKEOVER/NO MORE BEAR STEARNS. 3-13-08 SMART MONEY WOULD SELL INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY (TAKE
PROFITS) WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T ALONE (NOTHING WHATSOEVER) AS STANDARD
AND POORS ANALYST SAYS THE END OF WRITEDOWNS MIGHT (BUT NOT QUITE) BE IN
SIGHT (WHICH IS LIKE THAT BROKER WHO
SELLS STOCKS FOR A LIVING SAYING HE’S TRYING TO KEEP CLIENTS IN STOCKS BECAUSE
AT SOME POINT THEY’LL GO UP)…RIIIIIGHT….. WHICH IS MEANINGLESS COMING FROM
STANDARD AND POORS WHICH SHOULD BE ACCOUNTABLE/LIABLE (FOR THIS FRAUD) ALONG
WITH THE FRAUDS ON WALL STREET, ETC., FOR THE TRIPLE A RATED SECURITIES ON THE
BOOKS WHICH EVERYONE KNOWS ARE IN FACT NOT TRIPLE A (WORTHLESS JUNK BONDS,
ASSETS, ETC.) SPURRING 200+ POINT SWING TO THE UPSIDE. VAST MAJORITY OF
ECONOMISTS NOW SAY WE’RE IN RECESSION (EVEN DESPITE ELECTION YEAR GIMMICKS-AS
GOOD AS GETS). RETAIL SALES DOWN MORE THAN EXPECTED .6%, FORECLOSURES UP 60%
YEAR OVER YEAR, DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY. ONE ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED
UNEMPLOYMENT/EMPLOYMENT WEAKNESS, PREMATURE TO SAY AS DID S&P THAT WE’RE
NEAR END OF WRITEDOWNS, MAJORITY OF ECONOMISTS NOW SAY WE’RE IN RECESSION,
HOUSING DOWNTURN MUCH FURTHER TO GO, VERY DEFENSIVE AS STOCKS CONTINUE TO HIT
NEW LOWS IN LARGE NUMBERS, WORST OF HOUSING CRISIS AHEAD, AND THIS IS A BEAR
MARKET IN A RECESSION ECONOMY. ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS U.S. CURRENT ACCOUNT
DEFICITS, LACK OF TRUST IN U.S. FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND TRIPLE A RATINGS
(BONDS, ETC., WHICH EVERYONE KNOWS ARE NOT), BANKS’ NEED FOR RECAPITALIZATION,
LOW SAVINGS (IE., CONSUMERS USING IE., GIFT CARDS FOR GROCERIES, ETC.), FED
LOSING CREDIBILITY BY FLIP-FLOPS/WRONG MOVES, AND SEES ONLY SHORT-COVERING
RALLIES AT BEST. VENEZUELA SHIFT TO PAYMENT IN EUROS FOR OIL OUT OF DOLLARS.
YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST SAYS WITH MONEY SUPPLY INCREASING AT EXORBITANT 27% PER
ANNUM, CITING ECONOMIST FRIEDMAN SAYS HYPER-INFLATIONARY (CONTRARY TO LAND OF
FRUITS AND NUTS ECONOMISTS WHO THIS DAY SEE LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS REAL ESTATE
DOWN 17.6%, SALES DOWN 40-45%, AND MEDIAN HOME PRICES DOWN $100,000, AND BUDGET
DEFICITS ACROSS THE BOARD). 3-12-08 VERY MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY,
DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY ON PANICKY FED KNEE JERK FUNNY MONEY ACTION, ONE
ANALYST/BROKER WHO SELLS STOCKS FOR A LIVING SAYS HE’S TRYING TO KEEP CLIENTS
IN STOCKS BECAUSE AT SOME POINT THEY’LL GO UP…..RIIIIIGHT…..REFERENCES THAT
THIS IS WORST R.E. DOWNTURN IN 100 YEARS AND NO BOTTOM YET IN R.E. AND WSJ SAYS
WORSE TO COME IN BAD PAPER (WRITEDOWNS, ETC.), AN OIL ANALYST SAYS RECORD HIGH
OIL PRICES ARE HEDGE AGAINST FALLING DOLLAR WITH A LOT OF DOLLARS RELATIVE TO
GOODS (AS IE., OIL, OTHER COMMODITIES, ETC.-HYPERINFLATION) AND IF YOU HOLD
DOLLARS/DOLLAR DENOMINATED ASSETS/SECURITIES YOU LOSE VALUE AND SEES $4.00 GAS
NATIONWIDE WITH RECORD DIESEL, WHILE ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS THAT SEEING FED GO
FROM LENDER OF LAST RESORT TO LENDER (PRINTER) OF FIRST RESORT IS
WORRISOME/TROUBLESOME. 3-11-08 Suckers’ bear
market irrationally exuberant new EPHEMERAL bubble rally on fed fear and trembling panic move TO ADD $200 BILLION IN WORLDWIDE LIQUIDITY
BY TEMPORARILY REPLACING (28 DAYS) ONE TYPE OF FUNNY-MONEY (WORTHLESS SUBPRIME
COLLATERALIZED DEBT) WITH ANOTHER LONGER TERM WORTHLESS FUNNY-MONEY (U.S. DEBT
WHICH CAN’T BE PAID BACK) WHICH IS A GREAT B.S. TALKING POINT BUT JUST A DROP
IN THE BUCKET CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UNDISCLOSED WRITEDOWNS/WORTHLESS
PAPER BEING HELD(AND, CURING A BUBBLE WITH A NEW BUBBLE-I DON'T THINK SO), ONE
ANALYST POINTS TO THE HYPERINFLATIONARY EFFECTS OF TOO MUCH LIQUIDITY CHASING
TOO FEW GOODS AND MORE BAD NEWS TO COME IN TECH SECTOR AND EARNINGS ALONG WITH
MORE WRITEOFFS/WRITEDOWNS WITH WORSE TO COME/NO BOTTOM YET AND HE REMAINS A
BEAR, LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS ECONOMIST SAYS BAD BUT NOT TECHNICALLY RECESSION
BASED ON GOVERNMENT ELECTION-YEAR DATA (ONLY NUTS AND NUTS FROM THE LAND OF
FRUITS AND NUTS BELIEVE SAME) WHILE TWO OTHER ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH
STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS/HIGH INFLATION/LOWER DOLLAR AS FOREIGNERS/INVESTORS GET OUT
OF WORTHLESS DOLLAR WITH BIG TROUBLE FOR U.S. POST-ELECTION AS REALITY SETS IN,
TRADE GAP WIDENED, AND SMART MONEY WOULD SELL THIS RALLY/TAKE PROFITS. 3-10-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY,
NEW BANK DOWNGRADES, MORGAN SLASHES EARNINGS ESTIMATES FOR S&P AND SAYS
ALREADY IN RECESSION, EVEN MORE ECONOMISTS NOW SAY THE OBVIOUS/RECESSION, RUMOR
THAT BEAR STERNS WITH SUBSTANTIAL LIQUIDITY ISSUES IS GOING UNDER, DOLLAR DOWN,
EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT ON CITIBANK AND BANKOFAMERICA, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS (HYPERINFLATIONARY) HIGH ENERGY AND FOOD PRICES (CONVENIENTLY LEFT OUT OF
THE FED’S “TOUTED” CORE RATE) ARE SQUEEZING THE CONSUMER (AND HENCE,
CONSUMPTION/65% OF GDP) AND THAT COMMODITIES A BUBBLE AND MULTINATIONALS WITH
OVERSEAS EARNINGS/POSITVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO WEAKER DOLLAR PREFERRED, AN
OIL ANALYST SAYS $200 OIL POSSIBLE (REITERATING GOLDMAN) WITH CONTINUED
WEAKENING OF DOLLAR, ANOTHER ANALYST/JOURNALIST SAYS SELL DOLLAR DENOMINATED
STOCKS/SECURITIES/ASSETS WHICH HAVE MUCH FURTHER TO FALL AND REITERATES AS DID
BARRON’S THAT MORTGAGE INSURERS HAVE OVER $5 TRILLION IN DEBT/EXPOSURE AND THAT
MANY OF THE NATIONS BANKS ARE ALREADY INSOLVENT SO GET OUT OF THE DOLLAR AND
U.S. STOCKS. 3-7-08 BAD
EMPLOYMENT/JOBS DATA across ALL SECTORS AS 63,000 JOBS LOST WITH DOWNWARD
REVISIONS TO DECEMBER AND JANUARY (ACTUALLY LOST 20,000) JOBS NUMBERS, ONE
ANALYST SAYS WE’RE IN A RECESSION WHILE MORE ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH ONE
STATING THAT YOU ALMOST NEVER SEE BACK-TO-BACK MONTHLY DECLINE IN EMPLOYMENT
WITHOUT RECESSION AS NOW, DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOWS, CONSUMERS INCREASED
BORROWING TO STAY AFLOAT, WASHINGTON MUTUAL FURTHER DOWNGRADES, SUPPORT LEVELS
BROKEN TO THE DOWNSIDE, sentiment- 85% believe things will get worse. 3-6-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY
TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS
FLOWING. 23% INCREASE IN FORECLOSURES IN
FOURTH QUARTER NEW RECORD HIGH, DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOWS, 10% OF HOMES WITH 0
OR NEGATIVE EQUITY, MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION SAYS HOME FORECLOSURES AT
ALL-TIME HIGH AND GOING HIGHER, ONE R.E. ANALYST SAYS ROUGH YEAR AHEAD WITH
FORECLOSURES AND DEFAULTS UP, ONE ANALYST SAYS MARKET WILL TEST NEW
LOWS/SUPPORT LEVELS WITH FLIGHT TO “QUALITY”/TREASURIES, LENDER THORNBURG
DEFAULTS AND ALONG WITH WASHINGTON MUTUAL IS DOWNGRADED, CONTINUING CLAIMS FOR
UNEMPLOYMENT AT HIGH LEVELS MEANS COMPANIES SHRINKING, IGNORE KNEE-JERK ELECTION
YEAR GOVERNMENT HUNKY DORY FAKE REPORTS. 3-5-08 OIL INVENTORIES LESS THAN EXPECTED, FED
BEIGE BOOK CITES ECONOMIC WEAKNESS PARTICULARLY SINCE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR,
LABOR COSTS ROSE, RISING PRICE PRESSURES/STAGFLATION, RECESSION/BEAR MARKET,
ONE ANALYST SAYS TOUGH FIRST HALF RECOMMENDS MULTINATIONALS WITH 50% OVERSEAS
EARNINGS (FAVORABLE CURRENCY TRANSLATION) AND CONSUMER STAPLES/HEALTH
RELATED/DEFENSIVE STOCKS, AMBAC TO FLOAT STOCK TO SHORE UP BALANCE SHEET TO
TUNE OF $1.5 BILLION/DILUTION AND
SHARES FALL $2 TO $8.70, OIL ANALYST CITES DECLINE IN OIL
INVENTORIES/DIESEL/JET FUEL AND WEAK DOLLAR AND TOP $108-$110 BUT $120-$130 IF
VENEZUELA/COLUMBIA CONFLICT AND MORE RECORD HIGH GAS PRICES TO COME, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DECLINE IN REAL ESTATE/HOUSING WITH STARTS
DOWN 15-20-40% ON WELL DESERVED PESSIMISM/CREDIT CRUNCH. 3-4-08 Suckers’ bear market rally into the close
based on b**l s**t alone, viz., rumor/speculation about yet another bailout for
wall street/ambac/bond insurers and over 200 point swing to the upside based on
nothing whatsoever, one economist/analyst notes this is the deepest housing
decline since great depression, bernanke says another spike in foreclosures
ahead and proposes reduction of principal amounts in existing loans (sounds
like a plan…..riiiiight!), ken shreve finance editor investors business daily
says bear market 6-9 months/ don’t try to catch a falling knife as institutions
still selling/keep money safe in 3% money market for time being, one oil
analyst says oil higher before lower as expected rate cut will further weaken
dollar and drive up oil/commodities prices and problems in consumer debt in
addition to mortgages and nobody wants to hold dollars, 3-3-08 Suckers’ bear
market rally into the close, yes we are in a recession from someone who unlike
the frauds on wall street has read security analysis by graham, dodd, and
cottle and understands it (warren buffet), all news
negative, ie., ism manufacturing index down to 48.3 (contraction), car sales
down at gm (-12%) and ford (-7%), construction spending down most in 14 years,
oil analysts point to the new highs while economist/analyst says dollar has
fallen through all support levels meaning more bottoms to come, INFLATION
OUTPACING CONSUMER SPENDING (EVEN WITH SPENDING NUMBER HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
WHICH PROBABLY MEANS REALITY WAS NEGATIVE), CONSUMER CONFIDENCE/SENTIMENT DOWN
SHARPLY, CHICAGO MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN INDICATING CONTRACTION, $5.29 BILLION
LOSS FOR AIG ON WRITEOFFS, INTRA DAY HIGH FOR OIL OVER $103, INFLATION/WEAK
DOLLAR/ECONOMIC WEAKNESS=STAGFLATION, FOURTH MONTHLY DECLINE IN A ROW FOR STOCK
MARKET, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST IF NOT THEN ALMOST IN RECESSION WITH WORSE
INFLATION NEWS AND INFLATION ADJUSTED INCOME/SPENDING FLAT, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION AND CITES NEGATIVE SAVINGS RATE AND FURTHER
ECONOMIC WEAKNESS, ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED ECONOMIC WEAKNESS WITH FURTHER DOLLAR
DECLINE SO BULLISH ON METALS AND BEARISH ON STOCKS, AND YET ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS INFLATION/RECESSION BUT NOT DEPRESSION…..RIIIIIGHT, GDP
GROWTH REPORTED MUCH LESS THAN EXPECTED (BUT CLOSER TO REALITY) AT
MINISCULE .6%, UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS JUMP
19,000 TO 373,000 AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE POST KATRINA, BERNANKE SAYS CONSUMER
WORSE OFF THAN JUST AFTER 911(?) AND THAT SOME BANKS COULD (WILL) FAIL AND THAT
STAGFLATION WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS THE 70’S, FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC SHOW
MASSIVE LOSSES, ONE ANALYST 50 YEARS IN THE BUSINESS SEES RECESSION AND SAYS
FINANCIALS HAVE BECOME IMPENETRABLE IN TERMS OF ANALYSIS/LOSSES, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS WE’RE NOWHERE NEAR IMPROVEMENT IN R.E./HOUSING MARKET,
YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION WITH HIGHER INFLATION LOWER GROWTH
(STAGFLATION) AND THAT FED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN WRONG AND ONLY RECESSION TO
BRING DOWN INFLATION, new record LOW
FOR DOLLAR AGAINST EURO AND SWISS FRANC (AND EVEN WORTH LESS THAN THE LOWLY
CANADIAN LOONEY, ETC.) WHICH ALONG WITH DEFICIT SPENDING IS HYPERINFLATIONARY
AS OIL SEES NEW INTRADAY HIGH OF $102.64, SALES/ORDERS OF DURABLE GOODS DOWN
MORE THAN EXPECTED 5.3%, BERNANKE’S NEGATIVE COMMENTS ON GREENSPAN RECESSION
PROMISES RATE CUTS FOR NEW BUBBLE WHICH RALLIES STOCKS, ONE ANALYST SAYS BANKS
AS THEIR OWN INSURERS INCREASES RISK, ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DEFICIT
SPENDING INCREASES INFLATIONARY PROBLEMS/RISK, FORECLOSURES/BANK REPO’S UP 90%
YEAR OVER YEAR, REGULATORS PREDICT OVER 100 BANK FAILURES, FORECLOSURES UP 57%
IN JANUARY, WHOLESALE INFLATION UP MUCH HIGHER THAN EXPECTED 7.5% (CORE RATE
4+%), 9% DROP IN HOME VALUES/PRICES, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOWN TO 17 YEAR LOW,
ELECTION YEAR/PROTECT INCOMPETENT INCUMBENT GOV’T PRINTING WORTHLESS DOLLARS
LIKE MAD WITH EXCESS LIQUIDITY CHASING TOO FEW GOODS (IE., FOOD UP 6%, ETC.)
WHICH IS HYPER-INFLATIONARY, ECONOMIST/ANALYST DR. KELLNER SAYS EASIER MONEY/FISCAL
PACKAGE WON’T REFLATE HOUSING MARKET (RECESSION), ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS IN BEAR
MARKET/RECESSION RECOMMENDS DEFENSIVE/PREFERRED STOCKS/BONDS/CASH, DR. SHILLER-
CASE-SHILLER INDEX- HOME VALUES CONTINUED DECLINE AND IN OR ABOUT TO ENTER
RECESSION (that’s already here), Stiglitz
Blames Greenspan For Recession, IBM ON $15 BILLION BUYBACK AND JAWBONING
AND SIGNIFICANT OVERSEAS SALES (AND POSITIVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO THE
WORTHLESS DOLLAR) RALLIES MARKET (WHAT BULL S**T), SHARPLY LOWER AND MORE WORTHLESS DOLLAR/HIGH OIL PRICE RALLY
CREATES YET ANOTHER B.S. SWING OF OVER 200 POINTS TO THE UPSIDE, FOOD PRICES UP
6% ON ETHANOL CROWD-OUT, HOME SALES
DOWN 5.5% / MEDIAN SALES PRICE DOWN 4.6%, ONE R.E. EXPERT SAYS WITH SALES
FALLING AND FORECLOSURES RISING WORSE YET TO COME, LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
FELL FOR FOURTH MONTH IN A ROW (-.1%), PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX
UNEXPECTEDLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER (The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index fell
to a -24, indicating a sharp contraction in the region's manufacturing
activity. Economists had anticipated a reading of -10, a less pronounced
contraction. Last month the reading came in at -20.9.), ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS SIGNIFICANT INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT-STAGFLATION-AHEAD ALONG WITH
CONTINUED DEFLATION OF HOUSING BUBBLE WITH NATIONWIDE AVERAGE PRICE DECLINE OF
8-10% AND ANOTHER DECLINE OF 15-20% TO COME. SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY INTO THE CLOSE TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED
COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING. (3-25-08) (DOW
-16, NASDAQ +14, S&P +3) [CLOSE- OIL $101.22 / GOLD $935 / SILVER $17.80 /
PLATINUM $1,985.90 / DOLLAR= .639 EURO, 99.85 YEN, .498 POUND STERLING, ETC.
(How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.51%]. I WARNED AGAINST THE
DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF
THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN
DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO STRENGTH/TAKE
PROFITS/SELL). GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL INTO THIS
SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY (TAKE PROFITS).
REALITY:
THIS IS A BEAR MARKET IN A SECULAR BEAR MARKET IN A RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A
SECULAR (AND QUITE PERMANENT-THEY’VE MADE ALL THE WRONG CHOICES) ECONOMIC
DOWNTREND IN THE U.S. ONE ANALYST/REPORTER/ JOURNALIST FROM INSIDE SOURCES PEGS THE
SUB-PRIME DOLLAR VALUE OF THE SHILLED WORTHLESS PAPER AT $516 TRILLION (EVEN A
PERCENTAGE OF SAME RENDERS THE PROBLEM UNFIXABLE-HENCE, CULPABLE PARTIES MUST BE
HELD ACCOUNTABLE AND DISGORGE THEIR ILL-GOTTEN GAINS FROM, IE., COMMISSIONING
WORTHLESS PAPER, TAKING A POINT HERE OR THERE AND FRAUDULENTLY PASSING SAME ON,
AD INFINITUM, ETC.). Time to put the wall street among other corporate frauds
in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their ill-gotten
gains. [Please
note: I seldom name analysts/reporters/journalists bearing not so glad tidings
for fear they’ll be crucified by the frauds on wall street]. (3-24-08) (DOW +187, NASDAQ +68, S&P +20) [CLOSE-
OIL $100.86 / GOLD $918.70 / SILVER $17.11 / PLATINUM $1,889 / DOLLAR= .64
EURO, 100 YEN, .50 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR
NOTE YIELD 3.55%]. GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL INTO THIS
SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET/SHORT-COVERING RALLY (TAKE PROFITS) WHICH IS BASED UPON
B**L S**T AND NO REAL ECONOMIC NEWS AS
WALL STREET FRAUDS IN LAST DITCH EFFORT TO WINDOW DRESS REALISTICALLY DISMAL
FIRST QUARTER NUMBERS TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND COMPUTERIZED PROGRAM
TRADE COMMISSION DOLLARS FLOWING. THE ELECTION-YEAR-INDUCED RALLY FAKE NEWS
PUSHED BY THE WALL STREET FRAUDS IS A MEAGER TWO-FOLD; VIZ., EXISTING HOME
SALES INCREASED (JAN.-FEB.) 2.9% EXCEEDING SUBSTANTIALLY ECONOMISTS’ PREDICTIONS
AND J.P. MORGAN WILLING TO PAY $10 INSTEAD OF $2 PER SHARE FOR FAILED
INVESTMENT BANK BEAR STEARNS. REALITY: INCREASED SALES DUE TO INCREASED
FORECLOSURE SALES; PRICES DOWN 8.2%; MEDIAN HOME PRICE FELL MOST EVER ON RECORD;
INCREASED BEAR MONEY TO PLACATE SHAREHOLDERS DESPERATE MOVE TO KEEP WORTHLESS
SECURITIES FROM BEING DUMPED IN MARKET WHERE SAME CAN’T BE SOLD AND WHERE SUCH
WOULD RESULT IN OTHER SUCH BEING MARKED TO MARKET (PENNIES ON A DOLLAR). ONE
ANALYST SAYS NOTHING FUNDAMENTALLY HAS CHANGED, DAY TO DAY TRADING ON DAY’S
NEWS AND TODAY A HAPPY (NON) NEWS DAY…RIIIIIGHT…AND RECOMMENDS FOR PROTECTION
NON-U.S. ASSETS/SECURITIES, METALS, AND BIG CAP TECH/MULTINATIONALS WITH
OVERSEAS EARNINGS (POSITIVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION). AN ECONOMIST SAYS THE FED’S
CONFUSING DEAL PROTECTS ITS OWN MONEY BY ESSENTIALLY PROVIDING A “BRIDGE LOAN”
TO PREVENT THE WORTHLESS SECURITIES FROM BEING DUMPED WHERE THERE IS NO MARKET
FOR SAME CAUSING FURTHER WRITEDOWNS across THE BOARD ON MARK TO MARKET. ANOTHER
ANALYST EMPHASIZES DISFUNCTIONAL BANKING/CONTINUED WRITEDOWNS/LOSSES/BALANCE
SHEET PROBLEMS FOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS/WE’VE NOT SEEN THE BOTTOM, IN
RECOMMENDING TAKING SOME PROFITS WITH ELECTION YEAR STIMULUS CREATING
INFLATIONARY PROBLEMS, THOUGH STILL IN BEAR MARKET THE REAL DECLINE AND REAL
RECESSION (WE’RE ALREADY IN RECESSION) TO COME POST ELECTION/2009 AND THE
INTERMEDIATE TERM IS VERY SCARY. ONE R.E. ANALYST SAYS ONE THIRD OF EXISTING HOME
SALES WERE FORECLOSURES WITH OVERSUPPLY OF PROPERTIES WHICH WILL TAKE A LONG
TIME TO WORK OUT WHILE ANOTHER r.e. ANALYST SAYS YEARS TO WORK OUT WITH ONLY
LIMITED IMPROVEMENT LATE 2009. 3-20-08 FULL
MOON WITH OBVIOUS EFFECT ON LUNATIC WALL STREET FRAUDS. SMART MONEY
WOULD SELL INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET/SHORT-COVERING RALLY (TAKE PROFITS)
WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T AND EXCEEDINGLY BAD ECONOMIC NEWS VIZ.,
UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS UP MUCH MORE THAN EXPECTED 22,000 TO HIGH 378,000, CREDIT
SWISSE TO REVISE PREVIOUS YEARS PROFITS DOWN ON FURTHER WRITEDOWNS,
PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN,
AND LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS DOWN FOR FIFTH MONTH IN A ROW WHICH HAS
ALWAYS SIGNALED/INDICATED/PRECEDED ECONOMIC DOWNTURN/CONTRACTION/RECESSION. ONE
SOMEWHAT SENILE ANALYST WELCOMED THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF FAKE/FIAT/PRINTED MONEY
SAYING THE FINANCIALS WHICH HAVE LAGGED THE MARKET BY 20% WILL BE
HELPED/INFLATED OUT OF THEIR DOLDRUMS (HYPERINFLATIONARY) BY SAME WHICH HE LIKES
BECAUSE HE’S HEAVILY CONCENTRATED IN FINANCIALS (GREAT CALL) AND THAT THE MONEY
HASN’T SHOWN UP YET BUT FAILS TO REALIZE THE U.S. HAS NEVER BEEN IN SUCH DIRE
CIRCUMSTANCES ECONOMICALLY, FINANCIALLY, AND GEOPOLITICALLY AS NOW. A MORE
RATIONAL VIEW BY ECONOMIST DR. IRVING KELLNER SAID STIMULUS THUS FAR TREATS
SYMPTOMS WITH MERE BANDAIDS WHICH FAIL TO ADDRESS/CURE THE
PROBLEM/CAUSE/DISEASE AND IS RATHER SIMPLISTIC TO A FAULT IN FOCUSING SOLELY ON
HOUSING/REAL ESTATE VALUES ALTHOUGH CORRECTLY STATES THAT EASIER MONEY WILL NOT
ENHANCE THE VALUE OF MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES WHICH REMAIN INDETERMINANT,
DOWN, OR GOING DOWN AND ADVOCATES DEPRESSION ERA APPROACH SINCE HE CORRECTLY
STATES ECONOMY HAS ALREADY (DECEMBER,
2007 OR JANUARY, 2008) ENTERED THE WORST RECESSION OF THE POST-WAR ERA (DESPITE
ELECTION YEAR SPIN). ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS THIS IS A SHORT-COVERING RALLY AND AN
OPPORTUNITY TO SELL/TAKE PROFITS (i TOTALLY AGREE), THAT THE FED DESPERATION
MOVES INCLUDING PRINTING DOLLARS LIKE MAD
HAVE LED TO A DEBASEMENT OF THE U.S. CURRENCY AND THAT THE DOLLAR WILL
CONTINUE TO GO LOWER, THAT TRILLIONS HAVE BEEN BORROWED BUT THAT THEY WILL BE
UNSUCCESSFUL IN REINFLATING THE BUBBLE, THAT THE FINANCIAL CRISIS IS NO WHERE
NEAR BEING OVER WITH MUCH MORE CARNAGE TO COME, AND RECOMMENDS BEING TOTALLY
OUT OF THE DOLLAR INCLUDING DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES AND INTO OTHER
FOREIGN CURRENCIES/SECURITIES. 3-19-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO
REALITY. I WARNED AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA
BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I
WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL
INTO STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL). morgan stanley earnings down 40% but better
than expected…..riiiiight…..on computerized bond/stock trading commissions.
merrill lynch says more loan losses. one analyst says not much optimism
regarding fed moves, deepening fears about economy, wall street stuck with a
lot of stuff (ie., junk bonds, junk securities, junk derivatives, subprime
mortgages, etc.) which can’t be sold except at firesale prices, avoid equities
particularly small/midcaps, raise cash (taking profits/selling), looking for
confirmation, entered recession in february but with inflation a very tough scenario.
an oil analyst says commodity bubble bursting with profit-taking/path of least
resistance but still record diesel at $4.21, record home heating oil $3.80 so
wait and see. another analyst says emerging markets attractive relative to
developed citing p/e multiple comparison but no save haven and points to
further weakness in dollar relative to other currencies. metals analyst says
rate cut less than expected and etfs (and computerized trading thereof) has
propped demand. 3-18-08 Suckers’
bear market irrationally exuberant bubble rally on fed fear and trembling panic
move TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION
TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING. I WARNED
AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I
WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST
INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO
STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL). WHOLESALE/PRODUCER
PRICES UP MORE THAN EXPECTED .3% WITH CORE RATE UP .5%. HOUSING STARTS DOWN 36%
TO LOWEST LEVEL IN 17 YEARS. SHARPLY (MORE THAN 50%) LOWER EARNINGS AT GOLDMAN
AND LEHMAN RALLIES THEIR STOCKS WITH FAMILIAR MANTRA ‘NOT AS BAD AS
EXPECTED’…..RIIIIIGHT! DOLLAR DOWN AGAINST MOST CURRENCIES ON .75% PANIC CUT IN
FED FUNDS RATE TO 2.25%. ONE ANALYST POINTS TO STRENGTH BY SECTOR, VIZ.,
FINANCIALS +8% (FOCUS OF THE BAILOUT), SMALL CAPS +5%, EMERGING MARKETS +5%,
AND SAYS DOLLAR WILL BE BOTTOMING. AN OIL ANALYST SAYS OIL TO GO HIGHER WITH
INFLUX OF SPECULATIVE NEW MONEY FROM RATE CUT. FORMER FED GOVERNOR GRAMLEY SAY
WE’RE IN SERIOUS ECONOMIC CRISIS, IN RECESSION WITH ECONOMIC WEAKNESS
SUFFICIENT TO MUTE DEMAND/SHARPER PRICE INCREASES, AND COMPARES ECONOMY TO
CANCER PATIENT UNDERGOING NECESSARY CHEMOTHERAPY…..RIIIIIGHT….., FED HAS USED
EMERGENCY POWERS NOT USED SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION BUT CAN’T RELY SOLELY ON
THE FED. ANOTHER ANALYST TALKS IN TERMS OF TRADING ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS
(FACT-THERE ARE HISTORICALLY VERY FEW SUCCESSFUL TRADERS), BELIEVES FED WENT
TOO FAR WITH RATE CUT AND SEES SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM WITH INFLATION, THUMBS UP
FOR METALS/OIL AND LARGE CAP TECH WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS, BUT FURTHER CAUTIONS
OWING TO NEGATIVE REAL INTEREST RATES (RATES LESS THAN INFLATION, RISK,
ECONOMIC FACTORS/PREMIUMS). FINALLY, THINGS ARE SO HUNKY DORY THAT AS REPORTED
BY CONTINENTAL COIN AND JEWELRY PEOPLE ARE PULLING THEIR TEETH, EXTRACTING AND
SELLING THE GOLD. LOVELY! 3-17-08 LUNATIC/FRAUDS
200+ point computerized BUY PROGRAM suckers’ bear market/short-covering rally
to the upside based upon nothing whatsoever that hasn’t already been discounted
(ie., more rate cuts by fed in panic mode, etc.). I WARNED AGAINST THE
DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF
THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN
DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO STRENGTH/TAKE
PROFITS/SELL). INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FELL A GREATER THAN EXPECTED ONE-HALF OF
1%. ONE ANALYST CITES NEW LOWS FOR DOLLAR AND SUBSTANTIAL MOVE BY FED ALREADY
DISCOUNTED (.75%). ANOTHER ANALYST CITES WEAKER DOLLAR AND SLOWER ECONOMY
IMPACTING DEMAND (IE., FOR GOODS, ETC., AND HENCE, COMMODITY PRICES, HENCE
LOWER OIL PRICE THIS DAY), CITES THIS DAYS SHORT-COVERING RALLY AND
RECOMEMMENDS MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS (POSITIVE CURRENCY
TRANSLATION) AND OVERSEAS NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES (UTILITIES, ETC.).
YET aNOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST CITES BUSINESS MODELS COMPARABLE TO BEAR STEARNS
IN FINANCIAL SECTOR(PROBLEMS WITH HEDGE FUNDS/INVESTMENT BANKS) WHICH HAS
PROVEN INABILITY TO MANAGE THEIR OWN AFFAIRS SAYING DEREGULATION A DISASTER AND
REREGULATION A CURE, NO END TO FALL IN DOLLAR AS US BECOMES WORLD’S BEGGAR, AND
RECOMMENDS NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES (IE., EURO, SWISS FRANC, ETC., AND
EMERGING FAR EAST MARKETS). aNOTHER MORE CALIFORNIA/SENILE, ANALYST/BROKER WHO
LIKE OTHERS HAVE LOST SUBSTANTIAL MONIES FOR CLIENTS CITES LACK OF OF
TRANSPARENCY AS VALUE OF HIS BUYS AND HOLDS CONTINUES TO FALL WITH DOLLAR BUT
TALKS SOME SPECULATIVE BUYS AND CASH. A FINANCIAL TIMES EDITOR SAYS NO BOTTOM
YET, THAT BY HISTORICAL STANDARDS THE SCENARIO IS QUITE BAD FOR THE US, THAT
BEAR STEARNS WAS NOT ALONE AMONG US FIRMS IN THEIR PROBLEMS, THAT THE MARKET IS
EXPECTING 1% PANIC CUT BY FED, AND THAT THE US ECONOMY IS IN DEEP TROUBLE. 3-14-08 early surge based
on false benign inflation report (showing no change in retail inflation) from
the government gives way to reality that they can’t cover up/lie about (despite
intra-day suckers rally) when there is a run on large wall street investment
bank bear stearns (first such since the great depression) which cites liquidity
crisis as ny fed and jp morgan intervene with 28 day loan as bear is holding
high risk (worthless) assets which are illiquid (thinly traded/can’t be sold)
as reserves (they are not alone in this regard among the frauds on wallstreet,
etc., and only 2 days ago bear said balance sheet stable), all time lows for
the dollar, wsj reports majority of economists think we’re in recession,
michigan (non-washington non-fed gov’t report) sentiment index at new 16 year
low. One ANALYST SAYS DOLLAR WEAKNESS/LOWER YIELDS/ECONOMIC CONCERNS WILL
CONTINUE DOWNWARD TREND, INFLATION REPORT SURPRISE/FOOLISH AND HIGHER INFLATION
NUMBER FOR MARCH, CRESCENDO OF BAD NEWS IN COMING WEEK AND LOOK FOR NEW
LOWS/BOTTOM(?). OIL ANALYST CITES WEAK DOLLAR/EASY MONEY FLOWS AND SAYS LOOK
FOR OIL AT $120-$125. ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS ITS TOO LATE FOR FED TO TURN THIS
WRITEDOWN/SUBPRIME/ECONOMIC DOWNTURN AROUND WITH BEAR ANOTHER $35-$70 BILLION
BAD AND WHAT AFTER 28 DAY LOAN-EXPECT TAKEOVER/NO MORE BEAR STEARNS. 3-13-08 SMART MONEY WOULD SELL INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY (TAKE
PROFITS) WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T ALONE (NOTHING WHATSOEVER) AS STANDARD
AND POORS ANALYST SAYS THE END OF WRITEDOWNS MIGHT (BUT NOT QUITE) BE IN
SIGHT (WHICH IS LIKE THAT BROKER WHO
SELLS STOCKS FOR A LIVING SAYING HE’S TRYING TO KEEP CLIENTS IN STOCKS BECAUSE
AT SOME POINT THEY’LL GO UP)…RIIIIIGHT….. WHICH IS MEANINGLESS COMING FROM
STANDARD AND POORS WHICH SHOULD BE ACCOUNTABLE/LIABLE (FOR THIS FRAUD) ALONG
WITH THE FRAUDS ON WALL STREET, ETC., FOR THE TRIPLE A RATED SECURITIES ON THE
BOOKS WHICH EVERYONE KNOWS ARE IN FACT NOT TRIPLE A (WORTHLESS JUNK BONDS,
ASSETS, ETC.) SPURRING 200+ POINT SWING TO THE UPSIDE. VAST MAJORITY OF ECONOMISTS
NOW SAY WE’RE IN RECESSION (EVEN DESPITE ELECTION YEAR GIMMICKS-AS GOOD AS
GETS). RETAIL SALES DOWN MORE THAN EXPECTED .6%, FORECLOSURES UP 60% YEAR OVER
YEAR, DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY. ONE ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED UNEMPLOYMENT/EMPLOYMENT
WEAKNESS, PREMATURE TO SAY AS DID S&P THAT WE’RE NEAR END OF WRITEDOWNS,
MAJORITY OF ECONOMISTS NOW SAY WE’RE IN RECESSION, HOUSING DOWNTURN MUCH
FURTHER TO GO, VERY DEFENSIVE AS STOCKS CONTINUE TO HIT NEW LOWS IN LARGE
NUMBERS, WORST OF HOUSING CRISIS AHEAD, AND THIS IS A BEAR MARKET IN A
RECESSION ECONOMY. ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS U.S. CURRENT ACCOUNT
DEFICITS, LACK OF TRUST IN U.S. FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND TRIPLE A RATINGS
(BONDS, ETC., WHICH EVERYONE KNOWS ARE NOT), BANKS’ NEED FOR RECAPITALIZATION,
LOW SAVINGS (IE., CONSUMERS USING IE., GIFT CARDS FOR GROCERIES, ETC.), FED
LOSING CREDIBILITY BY FLIP-FLOPS/WRONG MOVES, AND SEES ONLY SHORT-COVERING
RALLIES AT BEST. VENEZUELA SHIFT TO PAYMENT IN EUROS FOR OIL OUT OF DOLLARS.
YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST SAYS WITH MONEY SUPPLY INCREASING AT EXORBITANT 27% PER
ANNUM, CITING ECONOMIST FRIEDMAN SAYS HYPER-INFLATIONARY (CONTRARY TO LAND OF
FRUITS AND NUTS ECONOMISTS WHO THIS DAY SEE LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS REAL ESTATE
DOWN 17.6%, SALES DOWN 40-45%, AND MEDIAN HOME PRICES DOWN $100,000, AND BUDGET
DEFICITS ACROSS THE BOARD). 3-12-08 VERY MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY,
DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY ON PANICKY FED KNEE JERK FUNNY MONEY ACTION, ONE
ANALYST/BROKER WHO SELLS STOCKS FOR A LIVING SAYS HE’S TRYING TO KEEP CLIENTS IN
STOCKS BECAUSE AT SOME POINT THEY’LL GO UP…..RIIIIIGHT…..REFERENCES THAT THIS
IS WORST R.E. DOWNTURN IN 100 YEARS AND NO BOTTOM YET IN R.E. AND WSJ SAYS
WORSE TO COME IN BAD PAPER (WRITEDOWNS, ETC.), AN OIL ANALYST SAYS RECORD HIGH
OIL PRICES ARE HEDGE AGAINST FALLING DOLLAR WITH A LOT OF DOLLARS RELATIVE TO
GOODS (AS IE., OIL, OTHER COMMODITIES, ETC.-HYPERINFLATION) AND IF YOU HOLD
DOLLARS/DOLLAR DENOMINATED ASSETS/SECURITIES YOU LOSE VALUE AND SEES $4.00 GAS
NATIONWIDE WITH RECORD DIESEL, WHILE ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS THAT SEEING FED GO
FROM LENDER OF LAST RESORT TO LENDER (PRINTER) OF FIRST RESORT IS
WORRISOME/TROUBLESOME. 3-11-08 Suckers’ bear
market irrationally exuberant new EPHEMERAL bubble rally on fed fear and trembling panic move TO ADD $200 BILLION IN WORLDWIDE LIQUIDITY
BY TEMPORARILY REPLACING (28 DAYS) ONE TYPE OF FUNNY-MONEY (WORTHLESS SUBPRIME
COLLATERALIZED DEBT) WITH ANOTHER LONGER TERM WORTHLESS FUNNY-MONEY (U.S. DEBT
WHICH CAN’T BE PAID BACK) WHICH IS A GREAT B.S. TALKING POINT BUT JUST A DROP
IN THE BUCKET CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UNDISCLOSED WRITEDOWNS/WORTHLESS
PAPER BEING HELD(AND, CURING A BUBBLE WITH A NEW BUBBLE-I DON'T THINK SO), ONE
ANALYST POINTS TO THE HYPERINFLATIONARY EFFECTS OF TOO MUCH LIQUIDITY CHASING
TOO FEW GOODS AND MORE BAD NEWS TO COME IN TECH SECTOR AND EARNINGS ALONG WITH
MORE WRITEOFFS/WRITEDOWNS WITH WORSE TO COME/NO BOTTOM YET AND HE REMAINS A
BEAR, LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS ECONOMIST SAYS BAD BUT NOT TECHNICALLY RECESSION
BASED ON GOVERNMENT ELECTION-YEAR DATA (ONLY NUTS AND NUTS FROM THE LAND OF
FRUITS AND NUTS BELIEVE SAME) WHILE TWO OTHER ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH
STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS/HIGH INFLATION/LOWER DOLLAR AS FOREIGNERS/INVESTORS GET OUT
OF WORTHLESS DOLLAR WITH BIG TROUBLE FOR U.S. POST-ELECTION AS REALITY SETS IN,
TRADE GAP WIDENED, AND SMART MONEY WOULD SELL THIS RALLY/TAKE PROFITS. 3-10-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY,
NEW BANK DOWNGRADES, MORGAN SLASHES EARNINGS ESTIMATES FOR S&P AND SAYS
ALREADY IN RECESSION, EVEN MORE ECONOMISTS NOW SAY THE OBVIOUS/RECESSION, RUMOR
THAT BEAR STERNS WITH SUBSTANTIAL LIQUIDITY ISSUES IS GOING UNDER, DOLLAR DOWN,
EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT ON CITIBANK AND BANKOFAMERICA, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS (HYPERINFLATIONARY) HIGH ENERGY AND FOOD PRICES (CONVENIENTLY LEFT OUT OF
THE FED’S “TOUTED” CORE RATE) ARE SQUEEZING THE CONSUMER (AND HENCE,
CONSUMPTION/65% OF GDP) AND THAT COMMODITIES A BUBBLE AND MULTINATIONALS WITH
OVERSEAS EARNINGS/POSITVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO WEAKER DOLLAR PREFERRED, AN
OIL ANALYST SAYS $200 OIL POSSIBLE (REITERATING GOLDMAN) WITH CONTINUED
WEAKENING OF DOLLAR, ANOTHER ANALYST/JOURNALIST SAYS SELL DOLLAR DENOMINATED
STOCKS/SECURITIES/ASSETS WHICH HAVE MUCH FURTHER TO FALL AND REITERATES AS DID
BARRON’S THAT MORTGAGE INSURERS HAVE OVER $5 TRILLION IN DEBT/EXPOSURE AND THAT
MANY OF THE NATIONS BANKS ARE ALREADY INSOLVENT SO GET OUT OF THE DOLLAR AND
U.S. STOCKS. 3-7-08 BAD
EMPLOYMENT/JOBS DATA across ALL SECTORS AS 63,000 JOBS LOST WITH DOWNWARD
REVISIONS TO DECEMBER AND JANUARY (ACTUALLY LOST 20,000) JOBS NUMBERS, ONE
ANALYST SAYS WE’RE IN A RECESSION WHILE MORE ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH ONE
STATING THAT YOU ALMOST NEVER SEE BACK-TO-BACK MONTHLY DECLINE IN EMPLOYMENT
WITHOUT RECESSION AS NOW, DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOWS, CONSUMERS INCREASED
BORROWING TO STAY AFLOAT, WASHINGTON MUTUAL FURTHER DOWNGRADES, SUPPORT LEVELS
BROKEN TO THE DOWNSIDE, sentiment- 85% believe things will get worse. 3-6-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY
TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS
FLOWING. 23% INCREASE IN FORECLOSURES IN
FOURTH QUARTER NEW RECORD HIGH, DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOWS, 10% OF HOMES WITH 0
OR NEGATIVE EQUITY, MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION SAYS HOME FORECLOSURES AT
ALL-TIME HIGH AND GOING HIGHER, ONE R.E. ANALYST SAYS ROUGH YEAR AHEAD WITH
FORECLOSURES AND DEFAULTS UP, ONE ANALYST SAYS MARKET WILL TEST NEW
LOWS/SUPPORT LEVELS WITH FLIGHT TO “QUALITY”/TREASURIES, LENDER THORNBURG
DEFAULTS AND ALONG WITH WASHINGTON MUTUAL IS DOWNGRADED, CONTINUING CLAIMS FOR
UNEMPLOYMENT AT HIGH LEVELS MEANS COMPANIES SHRINKING, IGNORE KNEE-JERK
ELECTION YEAR GOVERNMENT HUNKY DORY FAKE REPORTS. 3-5-08 OIL INVENTORIES LESS THAN EXPECTED, FED
BEIGE BOOK CITES ECONOMIC WEAKNESS PARTICULARLY SINCE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR,
LABOR COSTS ROSE, RISING PRICE PRESSURES/STAGFLATION, RECESSION/BEAR MARKET,
ONE ANALYST SAYS TOUGH FIRST HALF RECOMMENDS MULTINATIONALS WITH 50% OVERSEAS
EARNINGS (FAVORABLE CURRENCY TRANSLATION) AND CONSUMER STAPLES/HEALTH
RELATED/DEFENSIVE STOCKS, AMBAC TO FLOAT STOCK TO SHORE UP BALANCE SHEET TO
TUNE OF $1.5 BILLION/DILUTION AND
SHARES FALL $2 TO $8.70, OIL ANALYST CITES DECLINE IN OIL
INVENTORIES/DIESEL/JET FUEL AND WEAK DOLLAR AND TOP $108-$110 BUT $120-$130 IF
VENEZUELA/COLUMBIA CONFLICT AND MORE RECORD HIGH GAS PRICES TO COME, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DECLINE IN REAL ESTATE/HOUSING WITH STARTS
DOWN 15-20-40% ON WELL DESERVED PESSIMISM/CREDIT CRUNCH. 3-4-08 Suckers’ bear market rally into the close
based on b**l s**t alone, viz., rumor/speculation about yet another bailout for
wall street/ambac/bond insurers and over 200 point swing to the upside based on
nothing whatsoever, one economist/analyst notes this is the deepest housing
decline since great depression, bernanke says another spike in foreclosures
ahead and proposes reduction of principal amounts in existing loans (sounds
like a plan…..riiiiight!), ken shreve finance editor investors business daily
says bear market 6-9 months/ don’t try to catch a falling knife as institutions
still selling/keep money safe in 3% money market for time being, one oil
analyst says oil higher before lower as expected rate cut will further weaken
dollar and drive up oil/commodities prices and problems in consumer debt in
addition to mortgages and nobody wants to hold dollars, 3-3-08 Suckers’ bear
market rally into the close, yes we are in a recession from someone who unlike
the frauds on wall street has read security analysis by graham, dodd, and
cottle and understands it (warren buffet), all news
negative, ie., ism manufacturing index down to 48.3 (contraction), car sales
down at gm (-12%) and ford (-7%), construction spending down most in 14 years,
oil analysts point to the new highs while economist/analyst says dollar has
fallen through all support levels meaning more bottoms to come, INFLATION
OUTPACING CONSUMER SPENDING (EVEN WITH SPENDING NUMBER HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
WHICH PROBABLY MEANS REALITY WAS NEGATIVE), CONSUMER CONFIDENCE/SENTIMENT DOWN
SHARPLY, CHICAGO MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN INDICATING CONTRACTION, $5.29 BILLION
LOSS FOR AIG ON WRITEOFFS, INTRA DAY HIGH FOR OIL OVER $103, INFLATION/WEAK
DOLLAR/ECONOMIC WEAKNESS=STAGFLATION, FOURTH MONTHLY DECLINE IN A ROW FOR STOCK
MARKET, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST IF NOT THEN ALMOST IN RECESSION WITH WORSE INFLATION
NEWS AND INFLATION ADJUSTED INCOME/SPENDING FLAT, ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS RECESSION AND CITES NEGATIVE SAVINGS RATE AND FURTHER ECONOMIC WEAKNESS,
ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED ECONOMIC WEAKNESS WITH FURTHER DOLLAR DECLINE SO BULLISH
ON METALS AND BEARISH ON STOCKS, AND YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS
INFLATION/RECESSION BUT NOT DEPRESSION…..RIIIIIGHT, GDP GROWTH REPORTED
MUCH LESS THAN EXPECTED (BUT CLOSER TO REALITY) AT MINISCULE .6%, UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS JUMP 19,000 TO
373,000 AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE POST KATRINA, BERNANKE SAYS CONSUMER WORSE OFF
THAN JUST AFTER 911(?) AND THAT SOME BANKS COULD (WILL) FAIL AND THAT
STAGFLATION WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS THE 70’S, FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC SHOW
MASSIVE LOSSES, ONE ANALYST 50 YEARS IN THE BUSINESS SEES RECESSION AND SAYS
FINANCIALS HAVE BECOME IMPENETRABLE IN TERMS OF ANALYSIS/LOSSES, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS WE’RE NOWHERE NEAR IMPROVEMENT IN R.E./HOUSING MARKET,
YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION WITH HIGHER INFLATION LOWER GROWTH
(STAGFLATION) AND THAT FED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN WRONG AND ONLY RECESSION TO
BRING DOWN INFLATION, new record LOW
FOR DOLLAR AGAINST EURO AND SWISS FRANC (AND EVEN WORTH LESS THAN THE LOWLY
CANADIAN LOONEY, ETC.) WHICH ALONG WITH DEFICIT SPENDING IS HYPERINFLATIONARY
AS OIL SEES NEW INTRADAY HIGH OF $102.64, SALES/ORDERS OF DURABLE GOODS DOWN
MORE THAN EXPECTED 5.3%, BERNANKE’S NEGATIVE COMMENTS ON GREENSPAN RECESSION
PROMISES RATE CUTS FOR NEW BUBBLE WHICH RALLIES STOCKS, ONE ANALYST SAYS BANKS
AS THEIR OWN INSURERS INCREASES RISK, ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DEFICIT
SPENDING INCREASES INFLATIONARY PROBLEMS/RISK, FORECLOSURES/BANK REPO’S UP 90%
YEAR OVER YEAR, REGULATORS PREDICT OVER 100 BANK FAILURES, FORECLOSURES UP 57%
IN JANUARY, WHOLESALE INFLATION UP MUCH HIGHER THAN EXPECTED 7.5% (CORE RATE
4+%), 9% DROP IN HOME VALUES/PRICES, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOWN TO 17 YEAR LOW,
ELECTION YEAR/PROTECT INCOMPETENT INCUMBENT GOV’T PRINTING WORTHLESS DOLLARS
LIKE MAD WITH EXCESS LIQUIDITY CHASING TOO FEW GOODS (IE., FOOD UP 6%, ETC.)
WHICH IS HYPER-INFLATIONARY, ECONOMIST/ANALYST DR. KELLNER SAYS EASIER
MONEY/FISCAL PACKAGE WON’T REFLATE HOUSING MARKET (RECESSION), ANOTHER ANALYST
SAYS IN BEAR MARKET/RECESSION RECOMMENDS DEFENSIVE/PREFERRED STOCKS/BONDS/CASH,
DR. SHILLER- CASE-SHILLER INDEX- HOME VALUES CONTINUED DECLINE AND IN OR ABOUT
TO ENTER RECESSION (that’s already here), Stiglitz
Blames Greenspan For Recession, IBM ON $15 BILLION BUYBACK AND JAWBONING
AND SIGNIFICANT OVERSEAS SALES (AND POSITIVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO THE
WORTHLESS DOLLAR) RALLIES MARKET (WHAT BULL S**T), SHARPLY LOWER AND MORE WORTHLESS DOLLAR/HIGH OIL PRICE RALLY
CREATES YET ANOTHER B.S. SWING OF OVER 200 POINTS TO THE UPSIDE, FOOD PRICES UP
6% ON ETHANOL CROWD-OUT, HOME SALES
DOWN 5.5% / MEDIAN SALES PRICE DOWN 4.6%, ONE R.E. EXPERT SAYS WITH SALES
FALLING AND FORECLOSURES RISING WORSE YET TO COME, LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
FELL FOR FOURTH MONTH IN A ROW (-.1%), PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX
UNEXPECTEDLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER (The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index fell
to a -24, indicating a sharp contraction in the region's manufacturing
activity. Economists had anticipated a reading of -10, a less pronounced
contraction. Last month the reading came in at -20.9.), ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS SIGNIFICANT INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT-STAGFLATION-AHEAD ALONG WITH
CONTINUED DEFLATION OF HOUSING BUBBLE WITH NATIONWIDE AVERAGE PRICE DECLINE OF
8-10% AND ANOTHER DECLINE OF 15-20% TO COME. SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET/SHORT-COVERING RALLY TO
KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS
FLOWING. (3-24-08) (DOW
+187, NASDAQ +68, S&P +20) [CLOSE- OIL $100.86 / GOLD $918.70 / SILVER
$17.11 / PLATINUM $1,889 / DOLLAR= .64 EURO, 100 YEN, .50 POUND STERLING, ETC.
(How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR NOTE YIELD 3.55%]. I WARNED AGAINST THE
DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF
THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN
DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO STRENGTH/TAKE
PROFITS/SELL). GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL INTO THIS
SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET/SHORT-COVERING RALLY (TAKE PROFITS). REALITY: THIS IS A BEAR MARKET IN A SECULAR
BEAR MARKET IN A RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A SECULAR (AND QUITE PERMANENT-THEY’VE
MADE ALL THE WRONG CHOICES) ECONOMIC DOWNTREND IN THE U.S. ONE
ANALYST/REPORTER/ JOURNALIST FROM INSIDE SOURCES PEGS THE SUB-PRIME DOLLAR
VALUE OF THE SHILLED WORTHLESS PAPER AT $516 TRILLION (EVEN A PERCENTAGE OF
SAME RENDERS THE PROBLEM UNFIXABLE-HENCE, CULPABLE PARTIES MUST BE HELD
ACCOUNTABLE AND DISGORGE THEIR ILL-GOTTEN GAINS FROM, IE., COMMISSIONING
WORTHLESS PAPER, TAKING A POINT HERE OR THERE AND FRAUDULENTLY PASSING SAME ON,
AD INFINITUM, ETC.). Time to put the wall street among other corporate frauds
in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their ill-gotten
gains. [Please
note: I seldom name analysts/reporters/journalists bearing not so glad tidings
for fear they’ll be crucified by the frauds on wall street]. (3-20-08) (DOW +262, NASDAQ +48, S&P +31) [CLOSE-
OIL $101.84 / GOLD $920 / SILVER $16.85 / PLATINUM $1,877.30 / DOLLAR AT 1.54
AGAINST EURO, 98 YEN, 1.98 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)]. FULL
MOON WITH OBVIOUS EFFECT ON LUNATIC WALL STREET FRAUDS. SMART MONEY
WOULD SELL INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET/SHORT-COVERING RALLY (TAKE PROFITS)
WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T AND EXCEEDINGLY BAD ECONOMIC NEWS VIZ., UNEMPLOYMENT
CLAIMS UP MUCH MORE THAN EXPECTED 22,000 TO HIGH 378,000, CREDIT SWISSE TO
REVISE PREVIOUS YEARS PROFITS DOWN ON FURTHER WRITEDOWNS, PHILADELPHIA FED
MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN, AND LEADING
ECONOMIC INDICATORS DOWN FOR FIFTH MONTH IN A ROW WHICH HAS ALWAYS
SIGNALED/INDICATED/PRECEDED ECONOMIC DOWNTURN/CONTRACTION/RECESSION. ONE
SOMEWHAT SENILE ANALYST WELCOMED THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF FAKE/FIAT/PRINTED MONEY
SAYING THE FINANCIALS WHICH HAVE LAGGED THE MARKET BY 20% WILL BE
HELPED/INFLATED OUT OF THEIR DOLDRUMS (HYPERINFLATIONARY) BY SAME WHICH HE
LIKES BECAUSE HE’S HEAVILY CONCENTRATED IN FINANCIALS (GREAT CALL) AND THAT THE
MONEY HASN’T SHOWN UP YET BUT FAILS TO REALIZE THE U.S. HAS NEVER BEEN IN SUCH
DIRE CIRCUMSTANCES ECONOMICALLY, FINANCIALLY, AND GEOPOLITICALLY AS NOW. A MORE
RATIONAL VIEW BY ECONOMIST DR. IRVING KELLNER SAID STIMULUS THUS FAR TREATS
SYMPTOMS WITH MERE BANDAIDS WHICH FAIL TO ADDRESS/CURE THE
PROBLEM/CAUSE/DISEASE AND IS RATHER SIMPLISTIC TO A FAULT IN FOCUSING SOLELY ON
HOUSING/REAL ESTATE VALUES ALTHOUGH CORRECTLY STATES THAT EASIER MONEY WILL NOT
ENHANCE THE VALUE OF MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES WHICH REMAIN INDETERMINANT,
DOWN, OR GOING DOWN AND ADVOCATES DEPRESSION ERA APPROACH SINCE HE CORRECTLY
STATES ECONOMY HAS ALREADY (DECEMBER,
2007 OR JANUARY, 2008) ENTERED THE WORST RECESSION OF THE POST-WAR ERA (DESPITE
ELECTION YEAR SPIN). ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS THIS IS A SHORT-COVERING RALLY AND AN
OPPORTUNITY TO SELL/TAKE PROFITS (i TOTALLY AGREE), THAT THE FED DESPERATION
MOVES INCLUDING PRINTING DOLLARS LIKE MAD HAVE LED TO A DEBASEMENT OF THE U.S. CURRENCY AND THAT THE DOLLAR
WILL CONTINUE TO GO LOWER, THAT TRILLIONS HAVE BEEN BORROWED BUT THAT THEY WILL
BE UNSUCCESSFUL IN REINFLATING THE BUBBLE, THAT THE FINANCIAL CRISIS IS NO
WHERE NEAR BEING OVER WITH MUCH MORE CARNAGE TO COME, AND RECOMMENDS BEING
TOTALLY OUT OF THE DOLLAR INCLUDING DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES AND INTO
OTHER FOREIGN CURRENCIES/SECURITIES. 3-19-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO
REALITY. I WARNED AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA
BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I
WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL
INTO STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL). morgan stanley earnings down 40% but better
than expected…..riiiiight…..on computerized bond/stock trading commissions.
merrill lynch says more loan losses. one analyst says not much optimism
regarding fed moves, deepening fears about economy, wall street stuck with a
lot of stuff (ie., junk bonds, junk securities, junk derivatives, subprime
mortgages, etc.) which can’t be sold except at firesale prices, avoid equities
particularly small/midcaps, raise cash (taking profits/selling), looking for
confirmation, entered recession in february but with inflation a very tough
scenario. an oil analyst says commodity bubble bursting with profit-taking/path
of least resistance but still record diesel at $4.21, record home heating oil
$3.80 so wait and see. another analyst says emerging markets attractive
relative to developed citing p/e multiple comparison but no save haven and
points to further weakness in dollar relative to other currencies. metals
analyst says rate cut less than expected and etfs (and computerized trading
thereof) has propped demand. 3-18-08 Suckers’
bear market irrationally exuberant bubble rally on fed fear and trembling panic
move TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION
TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING. I WARNED
AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I
WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST
INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO
STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL). WHOLESALE/PRODUCER
PRICES UP MORE THAN EXPECTED .3% WITH CORE RATE UP .5%. HOUSING STARTS DOWN 36%
TO LOWEST LEVEL IN 17 YEARS. SHARPLY (MORE THAN 50%) LOWER EARNINGS AT GOLDMAN
AND LEHMAN RALLIES THEIR STOCKS WITH FAMILIAR MANTRA ‘NOT AS BAD AS EXPECTED’…..RIIIIIGHT!
DOLLAR DOWN AGAINST MOST CURRENCIES ON .75% PANIC CUT IN FED FUNDS RATE TO
2.25%. ONE ANALYST POINTS TO STRENGTH BY SECTOR, VIZ., FINANCIALS +8% (FOCUS OF
THE BAILOUT), SMALL CAPS +5%, EMERGING MARKETS +5%, AND SAYS DOLLAR WILL BE
BOTTOMING. AN OIL ANALYST SAYS OIL TO GO HIGHER WITH INFLUX OF SPECULATIVE NEW
MONEY FROM RATE CUT. FORMER FED GOVERNOR GRAMLEY SAY WE’RE IN SERIOUS ECONOMIC
CRISIS, IN RECESSION WITH ECONOMIC WEAKNESS SUFFICIENT TO MUTE DEMAND/SHARPER
PRICE INCREASES, AND COMPARES ECONOMY TO CANCER PATIENT UNDERGOING NECESSARY
CHEMOTHERAPY…..RIIIIIGHT….., FED HAS USED EMERGENCY POWERS NOT USED SINCE THE
GREAT DEPRESSION BUT CAN’T RELY SOLELY ON THE FED. ANOTHER ANALYST TALKS IN
TERMS OF TRADING ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS (FACT-THERE ARE HISTORICALLY VERY FEW
SUCCESSFUL TRADERS), BELIEVES FED WENT TOO FAR WITH RATE CUT AND SEES
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM WITH INFLATION, THUMBS UP FOR METALS/OIL AND LARGE CAP TECH
WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS, BUT FURTHER CAUTIONS OWING TO NEGATIVE REAL INTEREST RATES
(RATES LESS THAN INFLATION, RISK, ECONOMIC FACTORS/PREMIUMS). FINALLY, THINGS
ARE SO HUNKY DORY THAT AS REPORTED BY CONTINENTAL COIN AND JEWELRY PEOPLE ARE
PULLING THEIR TEETH, EXTRACTING AND SELLING THE GOLD. LOVELY! 3-17-08 LUNATIC/FRAUDS
200+ point computerized BUY PROGRAM suckers’ bear market/short-covering rally
to the upside based upon nothing whatsoever that hasn’t already been discounted
(ie., more rate cuts by fed in panic mode, etc.). I WARNED AGAINST THE
DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF
THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN
DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO STRENGTH/TAKE
PROFITS/SELL). INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FELL A GREATER THAN EXPECTED ONE-HALF OF
1%. ONE ANALYST CITES NEW LOWS FOR DOLLAR AND SUBSTANTIAL MOVE BY FED ALREADY
DISCOUNTED (.75%). ANOTHER ANALYST CITES WEAKER DOLLAR AND SLOWER ECONOMY
IMPACTING DEMAND (IE., FOR GOODS, ETC., AND HENCE, COMMODITY PRICES, HENCE
LOWER OIL PRICE THIS DAY), CITES THIS DAYS SHORT-COVERING RALLY AND
RECOMEMMENDS MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS (POSITIVE CURRENCY
TRANSLATION) AND OVERSEAS NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES (UTILITIES, ETC.).
YET aNOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST CITES BUSINESS MODELS COMPARABLE TO BEAR STEARNS
IN FINANCIAL SECTOR(PROBLEMS WITH HEDGE FUNDS/INVESTMENT BANKS) WHICH HAS
PROVEN INABILITY TO MANAGE THEIR OWN AFFAIRS SAYING DEREGULATION A DISASTER AND
REREGULATION A CURE, NO END TO FALL IN DOLLAR AS US BECOMES WORLD’S BEGGAR, AND
RECOMMENDS NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES (IE., EURO, SWISS FRANC, ETC., AND
EMERGING FAR EAST MARKETS). aNOTHER MORE CALIFORNIA/SENILE, ANALYST/BROKER WHO
LIKE OTHERS HAVE LOST SUBSTANTIAL MONIES FOR CLIENTS CITES LACK OF OF
TRANSPARENCY AS VALUE OF HIS BUYS AND HOLDS CONTINUES TO FALL WITH DOLLAR BUT
TALKS SOME SPECULATIVE BUYS AND CASH. A FINANCIAL TIMES EDITOR SAYS NO BOTTOM
YET, THAT BY HISTORICAL STANDARDS THE SCENARIO IS QUITE BAD FOR THE US, THAT
BEAR STEARNS WAS NOT ALONE AMONG US FIRMS IN THEIR PROBLEMS, THAT THE MARKET IS
EXPECTING 1% PANIC CUT BY FED, AND THAT THE US ECONOMY IS IN DEEP TROUBLE. 3-14-08 early surge based
on false benign inflation report (showing no change in retail inflation) from
the government gives way to reality that they can’t cover up/lie about (despite
intra-day suckers rally) when there is a run on large wall street investment
bank bear stearns (first such since the great depression) which cites liquidity
crisis as ny fed and jp morgan intervene with 28 day loan as bear is holding
high risk (worthless) assets which are illiquid (thinly traded/can’t be sold)
as reserves (they are not alone in this regard among the frauds on wallstreet,
etc., and only 2 days ago bear said balance sheet stable), all time lows for
the dollar, wsj reports majority of economists think we’re in recession,
michigan (non-washington non-fed gov’t report) sentiment index at new 16 year
low. One ANALYST SAYS DOLLAR WEAKNESS/LOWER YIELDS/ECONOMIC CONCERNS WILL
CONTINUE DOWNWARD TREND, INFLATION REPORT SURPRISE/FOOLISH AND HIGHER INFLATION
NUMBER FOR MARCH, CRESCENDO OF BAD NEWS IN COMING WEEK AND LOOK FOR NEW
LOWS/BOTTOM(?). OIL ANALYST CITES WEAK DOLLAR/EASY MONEY FLOWS AND SAYS LOOK
FOR OIL AT $120-$125. ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS ITS TOO LATE FOR FED TO TURN THIS
WRITEDOWN/SUBPRIME/ECONOMIC DOWNTURN AROUND WITH BEAR ANOTHER $35-$70 BILLION
BAD AND WHAT AFTER 28 DAY LOAN-EXPECT TAKEOVER/NO MORE BEAR STEARNS. 3-13-08 SMART MONEY WOULD SELL INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY (TAKE
PROFITS) WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T ALONE (NOTHING WHATSOEVER) AS STANDARD
AND POORS ANALYST SAYS THE END OF WRITEDOWNS MIGHT (BUT NOT QUITE) BE IN
SIGHT (WHICH IS LIKE THAT BROKER WHO
SELLS STOCKS FOR A LIVING SAYING HE’S TRYING TO KEEP CLIENTS IN STOCKS BECAUSE
AT SOME POINT THEY’LL GO UP)…RIIIIIGHT….. WHICH IS MEANINGLESS COMING FROM
STANDARD AND POORS WHICH SHOULD BE ACCOUNTABLE/LIABLE (FOR THIS FRAUD) ALONG
WITH THE FRAUDS ON WALL STREET, ETC., FOR THE TRIPLE A RATED SECURITIES ON THE
BOOKS WHICH EVERYONE KNOWS ARE IN FACT NOT TRIPLE A (WORTHLESS JUNK BONDS,
ASSETS, ETC.) SPURRING 200+ POINT SWING TO THE UPSIDE. VAST MAJORITY OF
ECONOMISTS NOW SAY WE’RE IN RECESSION (EVEN DESPITE ELECTION YEAR GIMMICKS-AS
GOOD AS GETS). RETAIL SALES DOWN MORE THAN EXPECTED .6%, FORECLOSURES UP 60%
YEAR OVER YEAR, DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY. ONE ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED
UNEMPLOYMENT/EMPLOYMENT WEAKNESS, PREMATURE TO SAY AS DID S&P THAT WE’RE
NEAR END OF WRITEDOWNS, MAJORITY OF ECONOMISTS NOW SAY WE’RE IN RECESSION,
HOUSING DOWNTURN MUCH FURTHER TO GO, VERY DEFENSIVE AS STOCKS CONTINUE TO HIT
NEW LOWS IN LARGE NUMBERS, WORST OF HOUSING CRISIS AHEAD, AND THIS IS A BEAR
MARKET IN A RECESSION ECONOMY. ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS U.S. CURRENT
ACCOUNT DEFICITS, LACK OF TRUST IN U.S. FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND TRIPLE A
RATINGS (BONDS, ETC., WHICH EVERYONE KNOWS ARE NOT), BANKS’ NEED FOR
RECAPITALIZATION, LOW SAVINGS (IE., CONSUMERS USING IE., GIFT CARDS FOR
GROCERIES, ETC.), FED LOSING CREDIBILITY BY FLIP-FLOPS/WRONG MOVES, AND SEES
ONLY SHORT-COVERING RALLIES AT BEST. VENEZUELA SHIFT TO PAYMENT IN EUROS FOR
OIL OUT OF DOLLARS. YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST SAYS WITH MONEY SUPPLY INCREASING AT
EXORBITANT 27% PER ANNUM, CITING ECONOMIST FRIEDMAN SAYS HYPER-INFLATIONARY
(CONTRARY TO LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS ECONOMISTS WHO THIS DAY SEE LAND OF FRUITS
AND NUTS REAL ESTATE DOWN 17.6%, SALES DOWN 40-45%, AND MEDIAN HOME PRICES DOWN
$100,000, AND BUDGET DEFICITS ACROSS THE BOARD). 3-12-08 VERY MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY,
DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY ON PANICKY FED KNEE JERK FUNNY MONEY ACTION, ONE
ANALYST/BROKER WHO SELLS STOCKS FOR A LIVING SAYS HE’S TRYING TO KEEP CLIENTS
IN STOCKS BECAUSE AT SOME POINT THEY’LL GO UP…..RIIIIIGHT…..REFERENCES THAT
THIS IS WORST R.E. DOWNTURN IN 100 YEARS AND NO BOTTOM YET IN R.E. AND WSJ SAYS
WORSE TO COME IN BAD PAPER (WRITEDOWNS, ETC.), AN OIL ANALYST SAYS RECORD HIGH
OIL PRICES ARE HEDGE AGAINST FALLING DOLLAR WITH A LOT OF DOLLARS RELATIVE TO
GOODS (AS IE., OIL, OTHER COMMODITIES, ETC.-HYPERINFLATION) AND IF YOU HOLD
DOLLARS/DOLLAR DENOMINATED ASSETS/SECURITIES YOU LOSE VALUE AND SEES $4.00 GAS
NATIONWIDE WITH RECORD DIESEL, WHILE ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS THAT SEEING FED GO
FROM LENDER OF LAST RESORT TO LENDER (PRINTER) OF FIRST RESORT IS
WORRISOME/TROUBLESOME. 3-11-08 Suckers’ bear
market irrationally exuberant new EPHEMERAL bubble rally on fed fear and trembling panic move TO ADD $200 BILLION IN WORLDWIDE LIQUIDITY
BY TEMPORARILY REPLACING (28 DAYS) ONE TYPE OF FUNNY-MONEY (WORTHLESS SUBPRIME
COLLATERALIZED DEBT) WITH ANOTHER LONGER TERM WORTHLESS FUNNY-MONEY (U.S. DEBT
WHICH CAN’T BE PAID BACK) WHICH IS A GREAT B.S. TALKING POINT BUT JUST A DROP
IN THE BUCKET CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UNDISCLOSED WRITEDOWNS/WORTHLESS
PAPER BEING HELD(AND, CURING A BUBBLE WITH A NEW BUBBLE-I DON'T THINK SO), ONE
ANALYST POINTS TO THE HYPERINFLATIONARY EFFECTS OF TOO MUCH LIQUIDITY CHASING
TOO FEW GOODS AND MORE BAD NEWS TO COME IN TECH SECTOR AND EARNINGS ALONG WITH
MORE WRITEOFFS/WRITEDOWNS WITH WORSE TO COME/NO BOTTOM YET AND HE REMAINS A
BEAR, LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS ECONOMIST SAYS BAD BUT NOT TECHNICALLY RECESSION
BASED ON GOVERNMENT ELECTION-YEAR DATA (ONLY NUTS AND NUTS FROM THE LAND OF
FRUITS AND NUTS BELIEVE SAME) WHILE TWO OTHER ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH
STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS/HIGH INFLATION/LOWER DOLLAR AS FOREIGNERS/INVESTORS GET OUT
OF WORTHLESS DOLLAR WITH BIG TROUBLE FOR U.S. POST-ELECTION AS REALITY SETS IN,
TRADE GAP WIDENED, AND SMART MONEY WOULD SELL THIS RALLY/TAKE PROFITS. 3-10-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY,
NEW BANK DOWNGRADES, MORGAN SLASHES EARNINGS ESTIMATES FOR S&P AND SAYS
ALREADY IN RECESSION, EVEN MORE ECONOMISTS NOW SAY THE OBVIOUS/RECESSION, RUMOR
THAT BEAR STERNS WITH SUBSTANTIAL LIQUIDITY ISSUES IS GOING UNDER, DOLLAR DOWN,
EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT ON CITIBANK AND BANKOFAMERICA, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS (HYPERINFLATIONARY) HIGH ENERGY AND FOOD PRICES (CONVENIENTLY LEFT OUT OF
THE FED’S “TOUTED” CORE RATE) ARE SQUEEZING THE CONSUMER (AND HENCE,
CONSUMPTION/65% OF GDP) AND THAT COMMODITIES A BUBBLE AND MULTINATIONALS WITH
OVERSEAS EARNINGS/POSITVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO WEAKER DOLLAR PREFERRED, AN
OIL ANALYST SAYS $200 OIL POSSIBLE (REITERATING GOLDMAN) WITH CONTINUED
WEAKENING OF DOLLAR, ANOTHER ANALYST/JOURNALIST SAYS SELL DOLLAR DENOMINATED
STOCKS/SECURITIES/ASSETS WHICH HAVE MUCH FURTHER TO FALL AND REITERATES AS DID
BARRON’S THAT MORTGAGE INSURERS HAVE OVER $5 TRILLION IN DEBT/EXPOSURE AND THAT
MANY OF THE NATIONS BANKS ARE ALREADY INSOLVENT SO GET OUT OF THE DOLLAR AND
U.S. STOCKS. 3-7-08 BAD EMPLOYMENT/JOBS
DATA across ALL SECTORS AS 63,000 JOBS LOST WITH DOWNWARD REVISIONS TO DECEMBER
AND JANUARY (ACTUALLY LOST 20,000) JOBS NUMBERS, ONE ANALYST SAYS WE’RE IN A
RECESSION WHILE MORE ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH ONE STATING THAT YOU ALMOST
NEVER SEE BACK-TO-BACK MONTHLY DECLINE IN EMPLOYMENT WITHOUT RECESSION AS NOW,
DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOWS, CONSUMERS INCREASED BORROWING TO STAY AFLOAT,
WASHINGTON MUTUAL FURTHER DOWNGRADES, SUPPORT LEVELS BROKEN TO THE DOWNSIDE,
sentiment- 85% believe things will get worse.
3-6-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY
TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS
FLOWING. 23% INCREASE IN FORECLOSURES IN
FOURTH QUARTER NEW RECORD HIGH, DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOWS, 10% OF HOMES WITH 0
OR NEGATIVE EQUITY, MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION SAYS HOME FORECLOSURES AT
ALL-TIME HIGH AND GOING HIGHER, ONE R.E. ANALYST SAYS ROUGH YEAR AHEAD WITH
FORECLOSURES AND DEFAULTS UP, ONE ANALYST SAYS MARKET WILL TEST NEW
LOWS/SUPPORT LEVELS WITH FLIGHT TO “QUALITY”/TREASURIES, LENDER THORNBURG
DEFAULTS AND ALONG WITH WASHINGTON MUTUAL IS DOWNGRADED, CONTINUING CLAIMS FOR
UNEMPLOYMENT AT HIGH LEVELS MEANS COMPANIES SHRINKING, IGNORE KNEE-JERK
ELECTION YEAR GOVERNMENT HUNKY DORY FAKE REPORTS. 3-5-08 OIL INVENTORIES LESS THAN EXPECTED, FED
BEIGE BOOK CITES ECONOMIC WEAKNESS PARTICULARLY SINCE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR,
LABOR COSTS ROSE, RISING PRICE PRESSURES/STAGFLATION, RECESSION/BEAR MARKET,
ONE ANALYST SAYS TOUGH FIRST HALF RECOMMENDS MULTINATIONALS WITH 50% OVERSEAS EARNINGS
(FAVORABLE CURRENCY TRANSLATION) AND CONSUMER STAPLES/HEALTH RELATED/DEFENSIVE
STOCKS, AMBAC TO FLOAT STOCK TO SHORE UP BALANCE SHEET TO TUNE OF $1.5
BILLION/DILUTION AND SHARES FALL $2 TO
$8.70, OIL ANALYST CITES DECLINE IN OIL INVENTORIES/DIESEL/JET FUEL AND WEAK
DOLLAR AND TOP $108-$110 BUT $120-$130 IF VENEZUELA/COLUMBIA CONFLICT AND MORE
RECORD HIGH GAS PRICES TO COME, ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED
DECLINE IN REAL ESTATE/HOUSING WITH STARTS DOWN 15-20-40% ON WELL DESERVED
PESSIMISM/CREDIT CRUNCH. 3-4-08 Suckers’ bear
market rally into the close based on b**l s**t alone, viz., rumor/speculation
about yet another bailout for wall street/ambac/bond insurers and over 200
point swing to the upside based on nothing whatsoever, one economist/analyst
notes this is the deepest housing decline since great depression, bernanke says
another spike in foreclosures ahead and proposes reduction of principal amounts
in existing loans (sounds like a plan…..riiiiight!), ken shreve finance editor
investors business daily says bear market 6-9 months/ don’t try to catch a
falling knife as institutions still selling/keep money safe in 3% money market
for time being, one oil analyst says oil higher before lower as expected rate
cut will further weaken dollar and drive up oil/commodities prices and problems
in consumer debt in addition to mortgages and nobody wants to hold dollars, 3-3-08 Suckers’ bear
market rally into the close, yes we are in a recession from someone who unlike
the frauds on wall street has read security analysis by graham, dodd, and
cottle and understands it (warren buffet), all news
negative, ie., ism manufacturing index down to 48.3 (contraction), car sales
down at gm (-12%) and ford (-7%), construction spending down most in 14 years,
oil analysts point to the new highs while economist/analyst says dollar has
fallen through all support levels meaning more bottoms to come, INFLATION
OUTPACING CONSUMER SPENDING (EVEN WITH SPENDING NUMBER HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
WHICH PROBABLY MEANS REALITY WAS NEGATIVE), CONSUMER CONFIDENCE/SENTIMENT DOWN
SHARPLY, CHICAGO MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN INDICATING CONTRACTION, $5.29 BILLION
LOSS FOR AIG ON WRITEOFFS, INTRA DAY HIGH FOR OIL OVER $103, INFLATION/WEAK
DOLLAR/ECONOMIC WEAKNESS=STAGFLATION, FOURTH MONTHLY DECLINE IN A ROW FOR STOCK
MARKET, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST IF NOT THEN ALMOST IN RECESSION WITH WORSE
INFLATION NEWS AND INFLATION ADJUSTED INCOME/SPENDING FLAT, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION AND CITES NEGATIVE SAVINGS RATE AND FURTHER
ECONOMIC WEAKNESS, ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED ECONOMIC WEAKNESS WITH FURTHER DOLLAR
DECLINE SO BULLISH ON METALS AND BEARISH ON STOCKS, AND YET ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS INFLATION/RECESSION BUT NOT DEPRESSION…..RIIIIIGHT, GDP
GROWTH REPORTED MUCH LESS THAN EXPECTED (BUT CLOSER TO REALITY) AT
MINISCULE .6%, UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS JUMP
19,000 TO 373,000 AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE POST KATRINA, BERNANKE SAYS CONSUMER
WORSE OFF THAN JUST AFTER 911(?) AND THAT SOME BANKS COULD (WILL) FAIL AND THAT
STAGFLATION WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS THE 70’S, FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC SHOW
MASSIVE LOSSES, ONE ANALYST 50 YEARS IN THE BUSINESS SEES RECESSION AND SAYS
FINANCIALS HAVE BECOME IMPENETRABLE IN TERMS OF ANALYSIS/LOSSES, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS WE’RE NOWHERE NEAR IMPROVEMENT IN R.E./HOUSING MARKET,
YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION WITH HIGHER INFLATION LOWER GROWTH
(STAGFLATION) AND THAT FED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN WRONG AND ONLY RECESSION TO
BRING DOWN INFLATION, new record LOW
FOR DOLLAR AGAINST EURO AND SWISS FRANC (AND EVEN WORTH LESS THAN THE LOWLY
CANADIAN LOONEY, ETC.) WHICH ALONG WITH DEFICIT SPENDING IS HYPERINFLATIONARY
AS OIL SEES NEW INTRADAY HIGH OF $102.64, SALES/ORDERS OF DURABLE GOODS DOWN
MORE THAN EXPECTED 5.3%, BERNANKE’S NEGATIVE COMMENTS ON GREENSPAN RECESSION
PROMISES RATE CUTS FOR NEW BUBBLE WHICH RALLIES STOCKS, ONE ANALYST SAYS BANKS
AS THEIR OWN INSURERS INCREASES RISK, ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DEFICIT
SPENDING INCREASES INFLATIONARY PROBLEMS/RISK, FORECLOSURES/BANK REPO’S UP 90%
YEAR OVER YEAR, REGULATORS PREDICT OVER 100 BANK FAILURES, FORECLOSURES UP 57%
IN JANUARY, WHOLESALE INFLATION UP MUCH HIGHER THAN EXPECTED 7.5% (CORE RATE
4+%), 9% DROP IN HOME VALUES/PRICES, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOWN TO 17 YEAR LOW,
ELECTION YEAR/PROTECT INCOMPETENT INCUMBENT GOV’T PRINTING WORTHLESS DOLLARS
LIKE MAD WITH EXCESS LIQUIDITY CHASING TOO FEW GOODS (IE., FOOD UP 6%, ETC.)
WHICH IS HYPER-INFLATIONARY, ECONOMIST/ANALYST DR. KELLNER SAYS EASIER
MONEY/FISCAL PACKAGE WON’T REFLATE HOUSING MARKET (RECESSION), ANOTHER ANALYST
SAYS IN BEAR MARKET/RECESSION RECOMMENDS DEFENSIVE/PREFERRED STOCKS/BONDS/CASH,
DR. SHILLER- CASE-SHILLER INDEX- HOME VALUES CONTINUED DECLINE AND IN OR ABOUT
TO ENTER RECESSION (that’s already here), Stiglitz
Blames Greenspan For Recession, IBM ON $15 BILLION BUYBACK AND JAWBONING
AND SIGNIFICANT OVERSEAS SALES (AND POSITIVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO THE
WORTHLESS DOLLAR) RALLIES MARKET (WHAT BULL S**T), SHARPLY LOWER AND MORE WORTHLESS DOLLAR/HIGH OIL PRICE RALLY
CREATES YET ANOTHER B.S. SWING OF OVER 200 POINTS TO THE UPSIDE, FOOD PRICES UP
6% ON ETHANOL CROWD-OUT, HOME SALES
DOWN 5.5% / MEDIAN SALES PRICE DOWN 4.6%, ONE R.E. EXPERT SAYS WITH SALES
FALLING AND FORECLOSURES RISING WORSE YET TO COME, LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
FELL FOR FOURTH MONTH IN A ROW (-.1%), PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX
UNEXPECTEDLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER (The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index fell
to a -24, indicating a sharp contraction in the region's manufacturing
activity. Economists had anticipated a reading of -10, a less pronounced
contraction. Last month the reading came in at -20.9.), ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS SIGNIFICANT INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT-STAGFLATION-AHEAD ALONG WITH CONTINUED
DEFLATION OF HOUSING BUBBLE WITH NATIONWIDE AVERAGE PRICE DECLINE OF 8-10% AND
ANOTHER DECLINE OF 15-20% TO COME. SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET/SHORT-COVERING RALLY TO
KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS
FLOWING. (DOW +262,
NASDAQ +48, S&P +31) [CLOSE- OIL $101.84 / GOLD $920 / SILVER $16.85 /
PLATINUM $1,877.30 / DOLLAR AT 1.54 AGAINST EURO, 98 YEN, 1.98 POUND STERLING,
ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)]. I WARNED AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I
WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL
ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED
SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL). SMART
MONEY WOULD SELL HERE (TAKE PROFITS).
REALITY:
THIS IS A BEAR MARKET IN A SECULAR BEAR MARKET IN A RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A
SECULAR (AND QUITE PERMANENT-THEY’VE MADE ALL THE WRONG CHOICES) ECONOMIC
DOWNTREND IN THE U.S. ONE ANALYST/REPORTER/ JOURNALIST FROM INSIDE SOURCES PEGS THE
SUB-PRIME DOLLAR VALUE OF THE SHILLED WORTHLESS PAPER AT $516 TRILLION (EVEN A
PERCENTAGE OF SAME RENDERS THE PROBLEM UNFIXABLE-HENCE, CULPABLE PARTIES MUST
BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE AND DISGORGE THEIR ILL-GOTTEN GAINS FROM, IE.,
COMMISSIONING WORTHLESS PAPER, TAKING A POINT HERE OR THERE AND FRAUDULENTLY
PASSING SAME ON, AD INFINITUM, ETC.). Time to put the wall street among other
corporate frauds in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their
ill-gotten gains. [Please note: I seldom name analysts/reporters/journalists
bearing not so glad tidings for fear they’ll be crucified by the frauds on wall
street]. (3-19-08) (DOW -293, NASDAQ -58, S&P -32) [CLOSE-
OIL $104.48(-$4.94) / GOLD $942.60 (-$61.60)/ SILVER $18.56/ PLATINUM $1,892/
DOLLAR AT 1.57 AGAINST EURO, 99 YEN, BELOW 1 SWISS FRANC, ETC. (How low can you
go)]. MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY. I
WARNED AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR
POWERS, I WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN
AGAINST INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO
STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL). morgan stanley earnings down 40% but better than
expected…..riiiiight…..on computerized bond/stock trading commissions. merrill
lynch says more loan losses. one analyst says not much optimism regarding fed
moves, deepening fears about economy, wall street stuck with a lot of stuff
(ie., junk bonds, junk securities, junk derivatives, subprime mortgages, etc.)
which can’t be sold except at firesale prices, avoid equities particularly
small/midcaps, raise cash (taking profits/selling), looking for confirmation,
entered recession in february but with inflation a very tough scenario. an oil
analyst says commodity bubble bursting with profit-taking/path of least
resistance but still record diesel at $4.21, record home heating oil $3.80 so
wait and see. another analyst says emerging markets attractive relative to
developed citing p/e multiple comparison but no save haven and points to
further weakness in dollar relative to other currencies. metals analyst says
rate cut less than expected and etfs (and computerized trading thereof) has
propped demand. 3-18-08 Suckers’
bear market irrationally exuberant bubble rally on fed fear and trembling panic
move TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION
TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING. I WARNED
AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I
WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST
INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO
STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL). WHOLESALE/PRODUCER
PRICES UP MORE THAN EXPECTED .3% WITH CORE RATE UP .5%. HOUSING STARTS DOWN 36%
TO LOWEST LEVEL IN 17 YEARS. SHARPLY (MORE THAN 50%) LOWER EARNINGS AT GOLDMAN
AND LEHMAN RALLIES THEIR STOCKS WITH FAMILIAR MANTRA ‘NOT AS BAD AS
EXPECTED’…..RIIIIIGHT! DOLLAR DOWN AGAINST MOST CURRENCIES ON .75% PANIC CUT IN
FED FUNDS RATE TO 2.25%. ONE ANALYST POINTS TO STRENGTH BY SECTOR, VIZ.,
FINANCIALS +8% (FOCUS OF THE BAILOUT), SMALL CAPS +5%, EMERGING MARKETS +5%,
AND SAYS DOLLAR WILL BE BOTTOMING. AN OIL ANALYST SAYS OIL TO GO HIGHER WITH
INFLUX OF SPECULATIVE NEW MONEY FROM RATE CUT. FORMER FED GOVERNOR GRAMLEY SAY
WE’RE IN SERIOUS ECONOMIC CRISIS, IN RECESSION WITH ECONOMIC WEAKNESS
SUFFICIENT TO MUTE DEMAND/SHARPER PRICE INCREASES, AND COMPARES ECONOMY TO
CANCER PATIENT UNDERGOING NECESSARY CHEMOTHERAPY…..RIIIIIGHT….., FED HAS USED
EMERGENCY POWERS NOT USED SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION BUT CAN’T RELY SOLELY ON
THE FED. ANOTHER ANALYST TALKS IN TERMS OF TRADING ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS
(FACT-THERE ARE HISTORICALLY VERY FEW SUCCESSFUL TRADERS), BELIEVES FED WENT
TOO FAR WITH RATE CUT AND SEES SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM WITH INFLATION, THUMBS UP
FOR METALS/OIL AND LARGE CAP TECH WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS, BUT FURTHER CAUTIONS
OWING TO NEGATIVE REAL INTEREST RATES (RATES LESS THAN INFLATION, RISK,
ECONOMIC FACTORS/PREMIUMS). FINALLY, THINGS ARE SO HUNKY DORY THAT AS REPORTED
BY CONTINENTAL COIN AND JEWELRY PEOPLE ARE PULLING THEIR TEETH, EXTRACTING AND
SELLING THE GOLD. LOVELY! 3-17-08 LUNATIC/FRAUDS
200+ point computerized BUY PROGRAM suckers’ bear market/short-covering rally
to the upside based upon nothing whatsoever that hasn’t already been discounted
(ie., more rate cuts by fed in panic mode, etc.). I WARNED AGAINST THE
DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF
THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN
DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO STRENGTH/TAKE
PROFITS/SELL). INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FELL A GREATER THAN EXPECTED ONE-HALF OF
1%. ONE ANALYST CITES NEW LOWS FOR DOLLAR AND SUBSTANTIAL MOVE BY FED ALREADY
DISCOUNTED (.75%). ANOTHER ANALYST CITES WEAKER DOLLAR AND SLOWER ECONOMY
IMPACTING DEMAND (IE., FOR GOODS, ETC., AND HENCE, COMMODITY PRICES, HENCE
LOWER OIL PRICE THIS DAY), CITES THIS DAYS SHORT-COVERING RALLY AND
RECOMEMMENDS MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS (POSITIVE CURRENCY
TRANSLATION) AND OVERSEAS NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES (UTILITIES, ETC.).
YET aNOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST CITES BUSINESS MODELS COMPARABLE TO BEAR STEARNS
IN FINANCIAL SECTOR(PROBLEMS WITH HEDGE FUNDS/INVESTMENT BANKS) WHICH HAS
PROVEN INABILITY TO MANAGE THEIR OWN AFFAIRS SAYING DEREGULATION A DISASTER AND
REREGULATION A CURE, NO END TO FALL IN DOLLAR AS US BECOMES WORLD’S BEGGAR, AND
RECOMMENDS NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES (IE., EURO, SWISS FRANC, ETC., AND
EMERGING FAR EAST MARKETS). aNOTHER MORE CALIFORNIA/SENILE, ANALYST/BROKER WHO
LIKE OTHERS HAVE LOST SUBSTANTIAL MONIES FOR CLIENTS CITES LACK OF OF
TRANSPARENCY AS VALUE OF HIS BUYS AND HOLDS CONTINUES TO FALL WITH DOLLAR BUT
TALKS SOME SPECULATIVE BUYS AND CASH. A FINANCIAL TIMES EDITOR SAYS NO BOTTOM
YET, THAT BY HISTORICAL STANDARDS THE SCENARIO IS QUITE BAD FOR THE US, THAT
BEAR STEARNS WAS NOT ALONE AMONG US FIRMS IN THEIR PROBLEMS, THAT THE MARKET IS
EXPECTING 1% PANIC CUT BY FED, AND THAT THE US ECONOMY IS IN DEEP TROUBLE. 3-14-08 early surge based
on false benign inflation report (showing no change in retail inflation) from
the government gives way to reality that they can’t cover up/lie about (despite
intra-day suckers rally) when there is a run on large wall street investment
bank bear stearns (first such since the great depression) which cites liquidity
crisis as ny fed and jp morgan intervene with 28 day loan as bear is holding
high risk (worthless) assets which are illiquid (thinly traded/can’t be sold)
as reserves (they are not alone in this regard among the frauds on wallstreet,
etc., and only 2 days ago bear said balance sheet stable), all time lows for
the dollar, wsj reports majority of economists think we’re in recession,
michigan (non-washington non-fed gov’t report) sentiment index at new 16 year
low. One ANALYST SAYS DOLLAR WEAKNESS/LOWER YIELDS/ECONOMIC CONCERNS WILL
CONTINUE DOWNWARD TREND, INFLATION REPORT SURPRISE/FOOLISH AND HIGHER INFLATION
NUMBER FOR MARCH, CRESCENDO OF BAD NEWS IN COMING WEEK AND LOOK FOR NEW
LOWS/BOTTOM(?). OIL ANALYST CITES WEAK DOLLAR/EASY MONEY FLOWS AND SAYS LOOK
FOR OIL AT $120-$125. ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS ITS TOO LATE FOR FED TO TURN THIS
WRITEDOWN/SUBPRIME/ECONOMIC DOWNTURN AROUND WITH BEAR ANOTHER $35-$70 BILLION
BAD AND WHAT AFTER 28 DAY LOAN-EXPECT TAKEOVER/NO MORE BEAR STEARNS. 3-13-08 SMART MONEY WOULD SELL INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY (TAKE
PROFITS) WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T ALONE (NOTHING WHATSOEVER) AS STANDARD
AND POORS ANALYST SAYS THE END OF WRITEDOWNS MIGHT (BUT NOT QUITE) BE IN
SIGHT (WHICH IS LIKE THAT BROKER WHO
SELLS STOCKS FOR A LIVING SAYING HE’S TRYING TO KEEP CLIENTS IN STOCKS BECAUSE
AT SOME POINT THEY’LL GO UP)…RIIIIIGHT….. WHICH IS MEANINGLESS COMING FROM
STANDARD AND POORS WHICH SHOULD BE ACCOUNTABLE/LIABLE (FOR THIS FRAUD) ALONG
WITH THE FRAUDS ON WALL STREET, ETC., FOR THE TRIPLE A RATED SECURITIES ON THE
BOOKS WHICH EVERYONE KNOWS ARE IN FACT NOT TRIPLE A (WORTHLESS JUNK BONDS,
ASSETS, ETC.) SPURRING 200+ POINT SWING TO THE UPSIDE. VAST MAJORITY OF
ECONOMISTS NOW SAY WE’RE IN RECESSION (EVEN DESPITE ELECTION YEAR GIMMICKS-AS
GOOD AS GETS). RETAIL SALES DOWN MORE THAN EXPECTED .6%, FORECLOSURES UP 60%
YEAR OVER YEAR, DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY. ONE ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED
UNEMPLOYMENT/EMPLOYMENT WEAKNESS, PREMATURE TO SAY AS DID S&P THAT WE’RE
NEAR END OF WRITEDOWNS, MAJORITY OF ECONOMISTS NOW SAY WE’RE IN RECESSION,
HOUSING DOWNTURN MUCH FURTHER TO GO, VERY DEFENSIVE AS STOCKS CONTINUE TO HIT
NEW LOWS IN LARGE NUMBERS, WORST OF HOUSING CRISIS AHEAD, AND THIS IS A BEAR
MARKET IN A RECESSION ECONOMY. ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS U.S. CURRENT
ACCOUNT DEFICITS, LACK OF TRUST IN U.S. FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND TRIPLE A
RATINGS (BONDS, ETC., WHICH EVERYONE KNOWS ARE NOT), BANKS’ NEED FOR
RECAPITALIZATION, LOW SAVINGS (IE., CONSUMERS USING IE., GIFT CARDS FOR
GROCERIES, ETC.), FED LOSING CREDIBILITY BY FLIP-FLOPS/WRONG MOVES, AND SEES
ONLY SHORT-COVERING RALLIES AT BEST. VENEZUELA SHIFT TO PAYMENT IN EUROS FOR
OIL OUT OF DOLLARS. YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST SAYS WITH MONEY SUPPLY INCREASING AT
EXORBITANT 27% PER ANNUM, CITING ECONOMIST FRIEDMAN SAYS HYPER-INFLATIONARY
(CONTRARY TO LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS ECONOMISTS WHO THIS DAY SEE LAND OF FRUITS
AND NUTS REAL ESTATE DOWN 17.6%, SALES DOWN 40-45%, AND MEDIAN HOME PRICES DOWN
$100,000, AND BUDGET DEFICITS ACROSS THE BOARD). 3-12-08 VERY MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY,
DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY ON PANICKY FED KNEE JERK FUNNY MONEY ACTION, ONE
ANALYST/BROKER WHO SELLS STOCKS FOR A LIVING SAYS HE’S TRYING TO KEEP CLIENTS IN
STOCKS BECAUSE AT SOME POINT THEY’LL GO UP…..RIIIIIGHT…..REFERENCES THAT THIS
IS WORST R.E. DOWNTURN IN 100 YEARS AND NO BOTTOM YET IN R.E. AND WSJ SAYS
WORSE TO COME IN BAD PAPER (WRITEDOWNS, ETC.), AN OIL ANALYST SAYS RECORD HIGH
OIL PRICES ARE HEDGE AGAINST FALLING DOLLAR WITH A LOT OF DOLLARS RELATIVE TO
GOODS (AS IE., OIL, OTHER COMMODITIES, ETC.-HYPERINFLATION) AND IF YOU HOLD
DOLLARS/DOLLAR DENOMINATED ASSETS/SECURITIES YOU LOSE VALUE AND SEES $4.00 GAS
NATIONWIDE WITH RECORD DIESEL, WHILE ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS THAT SEEING FED GO
FROM LENDER OF LAST RESORT TO LENDER (PRINTER) OF FIRST RESORT IS
WORRISOME/TROUBLESOME. 3-11-08 Suckers’ bear
market irrationally exuberant new EPHEMERAL bubble rally on fed fear and trembling panic move TO ADD $200 BILLION IN WORLDWIDE LIQUIDITY
BY TEMPORARILY REPLACING (28 DAYS) ONE TYPE OF FUNNY-MONEY (WORTHLESS SUBPRIME
COLLATERALIZED DEBT) WITH ANOTHER LONGER TERM WORTHLESS FUNNY-MONEY (U.S. DEBT
WHICH CAN’T BE PAID BACK) WHICH IS A GREAT B.S. TALKING POINT BUT JUST A DROP
IN THE BUCKET CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UNDISCLOSED WRITEDOWNS/WORTHLESS
PAPER BEING HELD(AND, CURING A BUBBLE WITH A NEW BUBBLE-I DON'T THINK SO), ONE
ANALYST POINTS TO THE HYPERINFLATIONARY EFFECTS OF TOO MUCH LIQUIDITY CHASING
TOO FEW GOODS AND MORE BAD NEWS TO COME IN TECH SECTOR AND EARNINGS ALONG WITH
MORE WRITEOFFS/WRITEDOWNS WITH WORSE TO COME/NO BOTTOM YET AND HE REMAINS A
BEAR, LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS ECONOMIST SAYS BAD BUT NOT TECHNICALLY RECESSION
BASED ON GOVERNMENT ELECTION-YEAR DATA (ONLY NUTS AND NUTS FROM THE LAND OF
FRUITS AND NUTS BELIEVE SAME) WHILE TWO OTHER ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH
STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS/HIGH INFLATION/LOWER DOLLAR AS FOREIGNERS/INVESTORS GET OUT
OF WORTHLESS DOLLAR WITH BIG TROUBLE FOR U.S. POST-ELECTION AS REALITY SETS IN,
TRADE GAP WIDENED, AND SMART MONEY WOULD SELL THIS RALLY/TAKE PROFITS. 3-10-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY,
NEW BANK DOWNGRADES, MORGAN SLASHES EARNINGS ESTIMATES FOR S&P AND SAYS
ALREADY IN RECESSION, EVEN MORE ECONOMISTS NOW SAY THE OBVIOUS/RECESSION, RUMOR
THAT BEAR STERNS WITH SUBSTANTIAL LIQUIDITY ISSUES IS GOING UNDER, DOLLAR DOWN,
EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT ON CITIBANK AND BANKOFAMERICA, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS (HYPERINFLATIONARY) HIGH ENERGY AND FOOD PRICES (CONVENIENTLY LEFT OUT OF
THE FED’S “TOUTED” CORE RATE) ARE SQUEEZING THE CONSUMER (AND HENCE,
CONSUMPTION/65% OF GDP) AND THAT COMMODITIES A BUBBLE AND MULTINATIONALS WITH
OVERSEAS EARNINGS/POSITVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO WEAKER DOLLAR PREFERRED, AN
OIL ANALYST SAYS $200 OIL POSSIBLE (REITERATING GOLDMAN) WITH CONTINUED
WEAKENING OF DOLLAR, ANOTHER ANALYST/JOURNALIST SAYS SELL DOLLAR DENOMINATED
STOCKS/SECURITIES/ASSETS WHICH HAVE MUCH FURTHER TO FALL AND REITERATES AS DID
BARRON’S THAT MORTGAGE INSURERS HAVE OVER $5 TRILLION IN DEBT/EXPOSURE AND THAT
MANY OF THE NATIONS BANKS ARE ALREADY INSOLVENT SO GET OUT OF THE DOLLAR AND
U.S. STOCKS. 3-7-08 BAD
EMPLOYMENT/JOBS DATA across ALL SECTORS AS 63,000 JOBS LOST WITH DOWNWARD
REVISIONS TO DECEMBER AND JANUARY (ACTUALLY LOST 20,000) JOBS NUMBERS, ONE
ANALYST SAYS WE’RE IN A RECESSION WHILE MORE ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH ONE
STATING THAT YOU ALMOST NEVER SEE BACK-TO-BACK MONTHLY DECLINE IN EMPLOYMENT
WITHOUT RECESSION AS NOW, DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOWS, CONSUMERS INCREASED
BORROWING TO STAY AFLOAT, WASHINGTON MUTUAL FURTHER DOWNGRADES, SUPPORT LEVELS
BROKEN TO THE DOWNSIDE, sentiment- 85% believe things will get worse. 3-6-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY
TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS
FLOWING. 23% INCREASE IN FORECLOSURES IN
FOURTH QUARTER NEW RECORD HIGH, DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOWS, 10% OF HOMES WITH 0
OR NEGATIVE EQUITY, MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION SAYS HOME FORECLOSURES AT
ALL-TIME HIGH AND GOING HIGHER, ONE R.E. ANALYST SAYS ROUGH YEAR AHEAD WITH
FORECLOSURES AND DEFAULTS UP, ONE ANALYST SAYS MARKET WILL TEST NEW
LOWS/SUPPORT LEVELS WITH FLIGHT TO “QUALITY”/TREASURIES, LENDER THORNBURG
DEFAULTS AND ALONG WITH WASHINGTON MUTUAL IS DOWNGRADED, CONTINUING CLAIMS FOR
UNEMPLOYMENT AT HIGH LEVELS MEANS COMPANIES SHRINKING, IGNORE KNEE-JERK
ELECTION YEAR GOVERNMENT HUNKY DORY FAKE REPORTS. 3-5-08 OIL INVENTORIES LESS THAN EXPECTED, FED
BEIGE BOOK CITES ECONOMIC WEAKNESS PARTICULARLY SINCE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR,
LABOR COSTS ROSE, RISING PRICE PRESSURES/STAGFLATION, RECESSION/BEAR MARKET,
ONE ANALYST SAYS TOUGH FIRST HALF RECOMMENDS MULTINATIONALS WITH 50% OVERSEAS
EARNINGS (FAVORABLE CURRENCY TRANSLATION) AND CONSUMER STAPLES/HEALTH
RELATED/DEFENSIVE STOCKS, AMBAC TO FLOAT STOCK TO SHORE UP BALANCE SHEET TO
TUNE OF $1.5 BILLION/DILUTION AND
SHARES FALL $2 TO $8.70, OIL ANALYST CITES DECLINE IN OIL
INVENTORIES/DIESEL/JET FUEL AND WEAK DOLLAR AND TOP $108-$110 BUT $120-$130 IF
VENEZUELA/COLUMBIA CONFLICT AND MORE RECORD HIGH GAS PRICES TO COME, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DECLINE IN REAL ESTATE/HOUSING WITH STARTS
DOWN 15-20-40% ON WELL DESERVED PESSIMISM/CREDIT CRUNCH. 3-4-08 Suckers’ bear market rally into the close
based on b**l s**t alone, viz., rumor/speculation about yet another bailout for
wall street/ambac/bond insurers and over 200 point swing to the upside based on
nothing whatsoever, one economist/analyst notes this is the deepest housing
decline since great depression, bernanke says another spike in foreclosures
ahead and proposes reduction of principal amounts in existing loans (sounds
like a plan…..riiiiight!), ken shreve finance editor investors business daily
says bear market 6-9 months/ don’t try to catch a falling knife as institutions
still selling/keep money safe in 3% money market for time being, one oil
analyst says oil higher before lower as expected rate cut will further weaken
dollar and drive up oil/commodities prices and problems in consumer debt in
addition to mortgages and nobody wants to hold dollars, 3-3-08 Suckers’ bear
market rally into the close, yes we are in a recession from someone who unlike
the frauds on wall street has read security analysis by graham, dodd, and
cottle and understands it (warren buffet), all news
negative, ie., ism manufacturing index down to 48.3 (contraction), car sales
down at gm (-12%) and ford (-7%), construction spending down most in 14 years,
oil analysts point to the new highs while economist/analyst says dollar has
fallen through all support levels meaning more bottoms to come, INFLATION
OUTPACING CONSUMER SPENDING (EVEN WITH SPENDING NUMBER HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
WHICH PROBABLY MEANS REALITY WAS NEGATIVE), CONSUMER CONFIDENCE/SENTIMENT DOWN
SHARPLY, CHICAGO MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN INDICATING CONTRACTION, $5.29 BILLION
LOSS FOR AIG ON WRITEOFFS, INTRA DAY HIGH FOR OIL OVER $103, INFLATION/WEAK
DOLLAR/ECONOMIC WEAKNESS=STAGFLATION, FOURTH MONTHLY DECLINE IN A ROW FOR STOCK
MARKET, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST IF NOT THEN ALMOST IN RECESSION WITH WORSE INFLATION
NEWS AND INFLATION ADJUSTED INCOME/SPENDING FLAT, ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS RECESSION AND CITES NEGATIVE SAVINGS RATE AND FURTHER ECONOMIC WEAKNESS,
ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED ECONOMIC WEAKNESS WITH FURTHER DOLLAR DECLINE SO BULLISH
ON METALS AND BEARISH ON STOCKS, AND YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS
INFLATION/RECESSION BUT NOT DEPRESSION…..RIIIIIGHT, GDP GROWTH REPORTED
MUCH LESS THAN EXPECTED (BUT CLOSER TO REALITY) AT MINISCULE .6%, UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS JUMP 19,000 TO
373,000 AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE POST KATRINA, BERNANKE SAYS CONSUMER WORSE OFF
THAN JUST AFTER 911(?) AND THAT SOME BANKS COULD (WILL) FAIL AND THAT
STAGFLATION WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS THE 70’S, FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC SHOW
MASSIVE LOSSES, ONE ANALYST 50 YEARS IN THE BUSINESS SEES RECESSION AND SAYS
FINANCIALS HAVE BECOME IMPENETRABLE IN TERMS OF ANALYSIS/LOSSES, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS WE’RE NOWHERE NEAR IMPROVEMENT IN R.E./HOUSING MARKET,
YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION WITH HIGHER INFLATION LOWER GROWTH
(STAGFLATION) AND THAT FED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN WRONG AND ONLY RECESSION TO
BRING DOWN INFLATION, new record LOW
FOR DOLLAR AGAINST EURO AND SWISS FRANC (AND EVEN WORTH LESS THAN THE LOWLY
CANADIAN LOONEY, ETC.) WHICH ALONG WITH DEFICIT SPENDING IS HYPERINFLATIONARY
AS OIL SEES NEW INTRADAY HIGH OF $102.64, SALES/ORDERS OF DURABLE GOODS DOWN
MORE THAN EXPECTED 5.3%, BERNANKE’S NEGATIVE COMMENTS ON GREENSPAN RECESSION
PROMISES RATE CUTS FOR NEW BUBBLE WHICH RALLIES STOCKS, ONE ANALYST SAYS BANKS
AS THEIR OWN INSURERS INCREASES RISK, ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DEFICIT
SPENDING INCREASES INFLATIONARY PROBLEMS/RISK, FORECLOSURES/BANK REPO’S UP 90%
YEAR OVER YEAR, REGULATORS PREDICT OVER 100 BANK FAILURES, FORECLOSURES UP 57%
IN JANUARY, WHOLESALE INFLATION UP MUCH HIGHER THAN EXPECTED 7.5% (CORE RATE
4+%), 9% DROP IN HOME VALUES/PRICES, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOWN TO 17 YEAR LOW,
ELECTION YEAR/PROTECT INCOMPETENT INCUMBENT GOV’T PRINTING WORTHLESS DOLLARS
LIKE MAD WITH EXCESS LIQUIDITY CHASING TOO FEW GOODS (IE., FOOD UP 6%, ETC.)
WHICH IS HYPER-INFLATIONARY, ECONOMIST/ANALYST DR. KELLNER SAYS EASIER
MONEY/FISCAL PACKAGE WON’T REFLATE HOUSING MARKET (RECESSION), ANOTHER ANALYST
SAYS IN BEAR MARKET/RECESSION RECOMMENDS DEFENSIVE/PREFERRED STOCKS/BONDS/CASH,
DR. SHILLER- CASE-SHILLER INDEX- HOME VALUES CONTINUED DECLINE AND IN OR ABOUT
TO ENTER RECESSION (that’s already here), Stiglitz
Blames Greenspan For Recession, IBM ON $15 BILLION BUYBACK AND JAWBONING
AND SIGNIFICANT OVERSEAS SALES (AND POSITIVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO THE
WORTHLESS DOLLAR) RALLIES MARKET (WHAT BULL S**T), SHARPLY LOWER AND MORE WORTHLESS DOLLAR/HIGH OIL PRICE RALLY
CREATES YET ANOTHER B.S. SWING OF OVER 200 POINTS TO THE UPSIDE, FOOD PRICES UP
6% ON ETHANOL CROWD-OUT, HOME SALES
DOWN 5.5% / MEDIAN SALES PRICE DOWN 4.6%, ONE R.E. EXPERT SAYS WITH SALES
FALLING AND FORECLOSURES RISING WORSE YET TO COME, LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
FELL FOR FOURTH MONTH IN A ROW (-.1%), PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX
UNEXPECTEDLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER (The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index fell
to a -24, indicating a sharp contraction in the region's manufacturing
activity. Economists had anticipated a reading of -10, a less pronounced
contraction. Last month the reading came in at -20.9.), ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS SIGNIFICANT INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT-STAGFLATION-AHEAD ALONG WITH
CONTINUED DEFLATION OF HOUSING BUBBLE WITH NATIONWIDE AVERAGE PRICE DECLINE OF
8-10% AND ANOTHER DECLINE OF 15-20% TO COME. MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE
COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING.
(DOW -293, NASDAQ -58, S&P -32) [CLOSE- OIL $104.48(-$4.94) /
GOLD $942.60 (-$61.60)/ SILVER $18.56/ PLATINUM $1,892/ DOLLAR AT 1.57 AGAINST
EURO, 99 YEN, BELOW 1 SWISS FRANC, ETC. (How low can you go)]. I WARNED
AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I
WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST
INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO
STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL). SMART MONEY WOULD SELL ON ANY
STRENGTH (TAKE PROFITS). REALITY: THIS IS A BEAR
MARKET IN A SECULAR BEAR MARKET IN A RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A SECULAR (AND QUITE
PERMANENT-THEY’VE MADE ALL THE WRONG CHOICES) ECONOMIC DOWNTREND IN THE U.S. ONE
ANALYST/REPORTER/ JOURNALIST FROM INSIDE SOURCES PEGS THE SUB-PRIME DOLLAR
VALUE OF THE SHILLED WORTHLESS PAPER AT $516 TRILLION (EVEN A PERCENTAGE OF
SAME RENDERS THE PROBLEM UNFIXABLE-HENCE, CULPABLE PARTIES MUST BE HELD
ACCOUNTABLE AND DISGORGE THEIR ILL-GOTTEN GAINS FROM, IE., COMMISSIONING
WORTHLESS PAPER, TAKING A POINT HERE OR THERE AND FRAUDULENTLY PASSING SAME ON,
AD INFINITUM, ETC.). Time to put the wall street among other corporate frauds
in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their ill-gotten
gains. [Please
note: I seldom name analysts/reporters/journalists bearing not so glad tidings
for fear they’ll be crucified by the frauds on wall street]. (3-18-08) (DOW +420, NASDAQ +91, S&P +54) [CLOSE-
OIL $109.42(+$3.74) / GOLD $1003/ SILVER $19.96/ PLATINUM $1,968/ DOLLAR AT 1.57
AGAINST EURO, 100 YEN, BELOW 1 SWISS FRANC, ETC. (How low can you go)]. Suckers’
bear market irrationally exuberant bubble rally on fed fear and trembling panic
move TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION
TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING. I WARNED AGAINST
THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED
OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN
DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO STRENGTH/TAKE
PROFITS/SELL). WHOLESALE/PRODUCER
PRICES UP MORE THAN EXPECTED .3% WITH CORE RATE UP .5%. HOUSING STARTS DOWN 36%
TO LOWEST LEVEL IN 17 YEARS. SHARPLY (MORE THAN 50%) LOWER EARNINGS AT GOLDMAN
AND LEHMAN RALLIES THEIR STOCKS WITH FAMILIAR MANTRA ‘NOT AS BAD AS EXPECTED’…..RIIIIIGHT!
DOLLAR DOWN AGAINST MOST CURRENCIES ON .75% PANIC CUT IN FED FUNDS RATE TO
2.25%. ONE ANALYST POINTS TO STRENGTH BY SECTOR, VIZ., FINANCIALS +8% (FOCUS OF
THE BAILOUT), SMALL CAPS +5%, EMERGING MARKETS +5%, AND SAYS DOLLAR WILL BE
BOTTOMING. AN OIL ANALYST SAYS OIL TO GO HIGHER WITH INFLUX OF SPECULATIVE NEW
MONEY FROM RATE CUT. FORMER FED GOVERNOR GRAMLEY SAY WE’RE IN SERIOUS ECONOMIC
CRISIS, IN RECESSION WITH ECONOMIC WEAKNESS SUFFICIENT TO MUTE DEMAND/SHARPER
PRICE INCREASES, AND COMPARES ECONOMY TO CANCER PATIENT UNDERGOING NECESSARY
CHEMOTHERAPY…..RIIIIIGHT….., FED HAS USED EMERGENCY POWERS NOT USED SINCE THE
GREAT DEPRESSION BUT CAN’T RELY SOLELY ON THE FED. ANOTHER ANALYST TALKS IN
TERMS OF TRADING ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS (FACT-THERE ARE HISTORICALLY VERY FEW
SUCCESSFUL TRADERS), BELIEVES FED WENT TO FAR WITH RATE CUT AND SEES
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM WITH INFLATION, THUMBS UP FOR METALS/OIL AND LARGE CAP TECH
WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS, BUT FURTHER CAUTIONS OWING TO NEGATIVE REAL INTEREST
RATES (RATES LESS THAN INFLATION, RISK, ECONOMIC FACTORS/PREMIUMS). FINALLY,
THINGS ARE SO HUNKY DORY THAT AS REPORTED BY CONTINENTAL COIN AND JEWELRY
PEOPLE ARE PULLING THEIR TEETH, EXTRACTING AND SELLING THE GOLD. LOVELY! 3-17-08 LUNATIC/FRAUDS
200+ point computerized BUY PROGRAM suckers’ bear market/short-covering rally
to the upside based upon nothing whatsoever that hasn’t already been discounted
(ie., more rate cuts by fed in panic mode, etc.). I WARNED AGAINST THE
DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF
THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN
DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO STRENGTH/TAKE
PROFITS/SELL). INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FELL A GREATER THAN EXPECTED ONE-HALF OF
1%. ONE ANALYST CITES NEW LOWS FOR DOLLAR AND SUBSTANTIAL MOVE BY FED ALREADY
DISCOUNTED (.75%). ANOTHER ANALYST CITES WEAKER DOLLAR AND SLOWER ECONOMY
IMPACTING DEMAND (IE., FOR GOODS, ETC., AND HENCE, COMMODITY PRICES, HENCE
LOWER OIL PRICE THIS DAY), CITES THIS DAYS SHORT-COVERING RALLY AND
RECOMEMMENDS MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS (POSITIVE CURRENCY
TRANSLATION) AND OVERSEAS NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES (UTILITIES, ETC.).
YET aNOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST CITES BUSINESS MODELS COMPARABLE TO BEAR STEARNS
IN FINANCIAL SECTOR(PROBLEMS WITH HEDGE FUNDS/INVESTMENT BANKS) WHICH HAS
PROVEN INABILITY TO MANAGE THEIR OWN AFFAIRS SAYING DEREGULATION A DISASTER AND
REREGULATION A CURE, NO END TO FALL IN DOLLAR AS US BECOMES WORLD’S BEGGAR, AND
RECOMMENDS NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES (IE., EURO, SWISS FRANC, ETC., AND
EMERGING FAR EAST MARKETS). aNOTHER MORE CALIFORNIA/SENILE, ANALYST/BROKER WHO
LIKE OTHERS HAVE LOST SUBSTANTIAL MONIES FOR CLIENTS CITES LACK OF OF
TRANSPARENCY AS VALUE OF HIS BUYS AND HOLDS CONTINUES TO FALL WITH DOLLAR BUT
TALKS SOME SPECULATIVE BUYS AND CASH. A FINANCIAL TIMES EDITOR SAYS NO BOTTOM
YET, THAT BY HISTORICAL STANDARDS THE SCENARIO IS QUITE BAD FOR THE US, THAT
BEAR STEARNS WAS NOT ALONE AMONG US FIRMS IN THEIR PROBLEMS, THAT THE MARKET IS
EXPECTING 1% PANIC CUT BY FED, AND THAT THE US ECONOMY IS IN DEEP TROUBLE. 3-14-08 early surge based
on false benign inflation report (showing no change in retail inflation) from
the government gives way to reality that they can’t cover up/lie about (despite
intra-day suckers rally) when there is a run on large wall street investment
bank bear stearns (first such since the great depression) which cites liquidity
crisis as ny fed and jp morgan intervene with 28 day loan as bear is holding
high risk (worthless) assets which are illiquid (thinly traded/can’t be sold)
as reserves (they are not alone in this regard among the frauds on wallstreet,
etc., and only 2 days ago bear said balance sheet stable), all time lows for
the dollar, wsj reports majority of economists think we’re in recession,
michigan (non-washington non-fed gov’t report) sentiment index at new 16 year
low. One ANALYST SAYS DOLLAR WEAKNESS/LOWER YIELDS/ECONOMIC CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE
DOWNWARD TREND, INFLATION REPORT SURPRISE/FOOLISH AND HIGHER INFLATION NUMBER
FOR MARCH, CRESCENDO OF BAD NEWS IN COMING WEEK AND LOOK FOR NEW
LOWS/BOTTOM(?). OIL ANALYST CITES WEAK DOLLAR/EASY MONEY FLOWS AND SAYS LOOK
FOR OIL AT $120-$125. ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS ITS TOO LATE FOR FED TO TURN THIS
WRITEDOWN/SUBPRIME/ECONOMIC DOWNTURN AROUND WITH BEAR ANOTHER $35-$70 BILLION
BAD AND WHAT AFTER 28 DAY LOAN-EXPECT TAKEOVER/NO MORE BEAR STEARNS. 3-13-08 SMART MONEY WOULD SELL INTO THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY (TAKE
PROFITS) WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T ALONE (NOTHING WHATSOEVER) AS STANDARD
AND POORS ANALYST SAYS THE END OF WRITEDOWNS MIGHT (BUT NOT QUITE) BE IN
SIGHT (WHICH IS LIKE THAT BROKER WHO
SELLS STOCKS FOR A LIVING SAYING HE’S TRYING TO KEEP CLIENTS IN STOCKS BECAUSE
AT SOME POINT THEY’LL GO UP)…RIIIIIGHT….. WHICH IS MEANINGLESS COMING FROM
STANDARD AND POORS WHICH SHOULD BE ACCOUNTABLE/LIABLE (FOR THIS FRAUD) ALONG
WITH THE FRAUDS ON WALL STREET, ETC., FOR THE TRIPLE A RATED SECURITIES ON THE
BOOKS WHICH EVERYONE KNOWS ARE IN FACT NOT TRIPLE A (WORTHLESS JUNK BONDS,
ASSETS, ETC.) SPURRING 200+ POINT SWING TO THE UPSIDE. VAST MAJORITY OF
ECONOMISTS NOW SAY WE’RE IN RECESSION (EVEN DESPITE ELECTION YEAR GIMMICKS-AS
GOOD AS GETS). RETAIL SALES DOWN MORE THAN EXPECTED .6%, FORECLOSURES UP 60%
YEAR OVER YEAR, DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY. ONE ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED
UNEMPLOYMENT/EMPLOYMENT WEAKNESS, PREMATURE TO SAY AS DID S&P THAT WE’RE
NEAR END OF WRITEDOWNS, MAJORITY OF ECONOMISTS NOW SAY WE’RE IN RECESSION,
HOUSING DOWNTURN MUCH FURTHER TO GO, VERY DEFENSIVE AS STOCKS CONTINUE TO HIT
NEW LOWS IN LARGE NUMBERS, WORST OF HOUSING CRISIS AHEAD, AND THIS IS A BEAR
MARKET IN A RECESSION ECONOMY. ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS U.S. CURRENT
ACCOUNT DEFICITS, LACK OF TRUST IN U.S. FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND TRIPLE A
RATINGS (BONDS, ETC., WHICH EVERYONE KNOWS ARE NOT), BANKS’ NEED FOR
RECAPITALIZATION, LOW SAVINGS (IE., CONSUMERS USING IE., GIFT CARDS FOR
GROCERIES, ETC.), FED LOSING CREDIBILITY BY FLIP-FLOPS/WRONG MOVES, AND SEES
ONLY SHORT-COVERING RALLIES AT BEST. VENEZUELA SHIFT TO PAYMENT IN EUROS FOR
OIL OUT OF DOLLARS. YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST SAYS WITH MONEY SUPPLY INCREASING AT
EXORBITANT 27% PER ANNUM, CITING ECONOMIST FRIEDMAN SAYS HYPER-INFLATIONARY
(CONTRARY TO LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS ECONOMISTS WHO THIS DAY SEE LAND OF FRUITS
AND NUTS REAL ESTATE DOWN 17.6%, SALES DOWN 40-45%, AND MEDIAN HOME PRICES DOWN
$100,000, AND BUDGET DEFICITS ACROSS THE BOARD). 3-12-08 VERY MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY, DOLLAR
DOWN SHARPLY ON PANICKY FED KNEE JERK FUNNY MONEY ACTION, ONE ANALYST/BROKER
WHO SELLS STOCKS FOR A LIVING SAYS HE’S TRYING TO KEEP CLIENTS IN STOCKS
BECAUSE AT SOME POINT THEY’LL GO UP…..RIIIIIGHT…..REFERENCES THAT THIS IS WORST
R.E. DOWNTURN IN 100 YEARS AND NO BOTTOM YET IN R.E. AND WSJ SAYS WORSE TO COME
IN BAD PAPER (WRITEDOWNS, ETC.), AN OIL ANALYST SAYS RECORD HIGH OIL PRICES ARE
HEDGE AGAINST FALLING DOLLAR WITH A LOT OF DOLLARS RELATIVE TO GOODS (AS IE.,
OIL, OTHER COMMODITIES, ETC.-HYPERINFLATION) AND IF YOU HOLD DOLLARS/DOLLAR
DENOMINATED ASSETS/SECURITIES YOU LOSE VALUE AND SEES $4.00 GAS NATIONWIDE WITH
RECORD DIESEL, WHILE ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS THAT SEEING FED GO FROM LENDER OF
LAST RESORT TO LENDER (PRINTER) OF FIRST RESORT IS WORRISOME/TROUBLESOME. 3-11-08 Suckers’ bear
market irrationally exuberant new EPHEMERAL bubble rally on fed fear and trembling panic move TO ADD $200 BILLION IN WORLDWIDE LIQUIDITY
BY TEMPORARILY REPLACING (28 DAYS) ONE TYPE OF FUNNY-MONEY (WORTHLESS SUBPRIME
COLLATERALIZED DEBT) WITH ANOTHER LONGER TERM WORTHLESS FUNNY-MONEY (U.S. DEBT
WHICH CAN’T BE PAID BACK) WHICH IS A GREAT B.S. TALKING POINT BUT JUST A DROP
IN THE BUCKET CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UNDISCLOSED WRITEDOWNS/WORTHLESS
PAPER BEING HELD(AND, CURING A BUBBLE WITH A NEW BUBBLE-I DON'T THINK SO), ONE
ANALYST POINTS TO THE HYPERINFLATIONARY EFFECTS OF TOO MUCH LIQUIDITY CHASING
TOO FEW GOODS AND MORE BAD NEWS TO COME IN TECH SECTOR AND EARNINGS ALONG WITH
MORE WRITEOFFS/WRITEDOWNS WITH WORSE TO COME/NO BOTTOM YET AND HE REMAINS A
BEAR, LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS ECONOMIST SAYS BAD BUT NOT TECHNICALLY RECESSION
BASED ON GOVERNMENT ELECTION-YEAR DATA (ONLY NUTS AND NUTS FROM THE LAND OF
FRUITS AND NUTS BELIEVE SAME) WHILE TWO OTHER ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH
STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS/HIGH INFLATION/LOWER DOLLAR AS FOREIGNERS/INVESTORS GET OUT
OF WORTHLESS DOLLAR WITH BIG TROUBLE FOR U.S. POST-ELECTION AS REALITY SETS IN,
TRADE GAP WIDENED, AND SMART MONEY WOULD SELL THIS RALLY/TAKE PROFITS. 3-10-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY,
NEW BANK DOWNGRADES, MORGAN SLASHES EARNINGS ESTIMATES FOR S&P AND SAYS
ALREADY IN RECESSION, EVEN MORE ECONOMISTS NOW SAY THE OBVIOUS/RECESSION, RUMOR
THAT BEAR STERNS WITH SUBSTANTIAL LIQUIDITY ISSUES IS GOING UNDER, DOLLAR DOWN,
EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT ON CITIBANK AND BANKOFAMERICA, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS (HYPERINFLATIONARY) HIGH ENERGY AND FOOD PRICES (CONVENIENTLY LEFT OUT OF
THE FED’S “TOUTED” CORE RATE) ARE SQUEEZING THE CONSUMER (AND HENCE,
CONSUMPTION/65% OF GDP) AND THAT COMMODITIES A BUBBLE AND MULTINATIONALS WITH
OVERSEAS EARNINGS/POSITVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO WEAKER DOLLAR PREFERRED, AN
OIL ANALYST SAYS $200 OIL POSSIBLE (REITERATING GOLDMAN) WITH CONTINUED
WEAKENING OF DOLLAR, ANOTHER ANALYST/JOURNALIST SAYS SELL DOLLAR DENOMINATED
STOCKS/SECURITIES/ASSETS WHICH HAVE MUCH FURTHER TO FALL AND REITERATES AS DID
BARRON’S THAT MORTGAGE INSURERS HAVE OVER $5 TRILLION IN DEBT/EXPOSURE AND THAT
MANY OF THE NATIONS BANKS ARE ALREADY INSOLVENT SO GET OUT OF THE DOLLAR AND
U.S. STOCKS. 3-7-08 BAD
EMPLOYMENT/JOBS DATA across ALL SECTORS AS 63,000 JOBS LOST WITH DOWNWARD
REVISIONS TO DECEMBER AND JANUARY (ACTUALLY LOST 20,000) JOBS NUMBERS, ONE
ANALYST SAYS WE’RE IN A RECESSION WHILE MORE ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH ONE
STATING THAT YOU ALMOST NEVER SEE BACK-TO-BACK MONTHLY DECLINE IN EMPLOYMENT
WITHOUT RECESSION AS NOW, DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOWS, CONSUMERS INCREASED
BORROWING TO STAY AFLOAT, WASHINGTON MUTUAL FURTHER DOWNGRADES, SUPPORT LEVELS
BROKEN TO THE DOWNSIDE, sentiment- 85% believe things will get worse. 3-6-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY
TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS
FLOWING. 23% INCREASE IN FORECLOSURES IN
FOURTH QUARTER NEW RECORD HIGH, DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOWS, 10% OF HOMES WITH 0
OR NEGATIVE EQUITY, MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION SAYS HOME FORECLOSURES AT
ALL-TIME HIGH AND GOING HIGHER, ONE R.E. ANALYST SAYS ROUGH YEAR AHEAD WITH
FORECLOSURES AND DEFAULTS UP, ONE ANALYST SAYS MARKET WILL TEST NEW LOWS/SUPPORT
LEVELS WITH FLIGHT TO “QUALITY”/TREASURIES, LENDER THORNBURG DEFAULTS AND ALONG
WITH WASHINGTON MUTUAL IS DOWNGRADED, CONTINUING CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT AT
HIGH LEVELS MEANS COMPANIES SHRINKING, IGNORE KNEE-JERK ELECTION YEAR
GOVERNMENT HUNKY DORY FAKE REPORTS. 3-5-08 OIL INVENTORIES LESS THAN EXPECTED, FED
BEIGE BOOK CITES ECONOMIC WEAKNESS PARTICULARLY SINCE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR,
LABOR COSTS ROSE, RISING PRICE PRESSURES/STAGFLATION, RECESSION/BEAR MARKET,
ONE ANALYST SAYS TOUGH FIRST HALF RECOMMENDS MULTINATIONALS WITH 50% OVERSEAS
EARNINGS (FAVORABLE CURRENCY TRANSLATION) AND CONSUMER STAPLES/HEALTH
RELATED/DEFENSIVE STOCKS, AMBAC TO FLOAT STOCK TO SHORE UP BALANCE SHEET TO
TUNE OF $1.5 BILLION/DILUTION AND
SHARES FALL $2 TO $8.70, OIL ANALYST CITES DECLINE IN OIL
INVENTORIES/DIESEL/JET FUEL AND WEAK DOLLAR AND TOP $108-$110 BUT $120-$130 IF
VENEZUELA/COLUMBIA CONFLICT AND MORE RECORD HIGH GAS PRICES TO COME, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DECLINE IN REAL ESTATE/HOUSING WITH STARTS
DOWN 15-20-40% ON WELL DESERVED PESSIMISM/CREDIT CRUNCH. 3-4-08 Suckers’ bear market rally into the close
based on b**l s**t alone, viz., rumor/speculation about yet another bailout for
wall street/ambac/bond insurers and over 200 point swing to the upside based on
nothing whatsoever, one economist/analyst notes this is the deepest housing
decline since great depression, bernanke says another spike in foreclosures
ahead and proposes reduction of principal amounts in existing loans (sounds
like a plan…..riiiiight!), ken shreve finance editor investors business daily
says bear market 6-9 months/ don’t try to catch a falling knife as institutions
still selling/keep money safe in 3% money market for time being, one oil
analyst says oil higher before lower as expected rate cut will further weaken
dollar and drive up oil/commodities prices and problems in consumer debt in
addition to mortgages and nobody wants to hold dollars, 3-3-08 Suckers’ bear
market rally into the close, yes we are in a recession from someone who unlike
the frauds on wall street has read security analysis by graham, dodd, and
cottle and understands it (warren buffet), all news
negative, ie., ism manufacturing index down to 48.3 (contraction), car sales
down at gm (-12%) and ford (-7%), construction spending down most in 14 years,
oil analysts point to the new highs while economist/analyst says dollar has
fallen through all support levels meaning more bottoms to come, INFLATION
OUTPACING CONSUMER SPENDING (EVEN WITH SPENDING NUMBER HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
WHICH PROBABLY MEANS REALITY WAS NEGATIVE), CONSUMER CONFIDENCE/SENTIMENT DOWN
SHARPLY, CHICAGO MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN INDICATING CONTRACTION, $5.29 BILLION
LOSS FOR AIG ON WRITEOFFS, INTRA DAY HIGH FOR OIL OVER $103, INFLATION/WEAK
DOLLAR/ECONOMIC WEAKNESS=STAGFLATION, FOURTH MONTHLY DECLINE IN A ROW FOR STOCK
MARKET, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST IF NOT THEN ALMOST IN RECESSION WITH WORSE
INFLATION NEWS AND INFLATION ADJUSTED INCOME/SPENDING FLAT, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION AND CITES NEGATIVE SAVINGS RATE AND FURTHER
ECONOMIC WEAKNESS, ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED ECONOMIC WEAKNESS WITH FURTHER DOLLAR
DECLINE SO BULLISH ON METALS AND BEARISH ON STOCKS, AND YET ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS INFLATION/RECESSION BUT NOT DEPRESSION…..RIIIIIGHT, GDP
GROWTH REPORTED MUCH LESS THAN EXPECTED (BUT CLOSER TO REALITY) AT
MINISCULE .6%, UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS JUMP
19,000 TO 373,000 AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE POST KATRINA, BERNANKE SAYS CONSUMER
WORSE OFF THAN JUST AFTER 911(?) AND THAT SOME BANKS COULD (WILL) FAIL AND THAT
STAGFLATION WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS THE 70’S, FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC SHOW
MASSIVE LOSSES, ONE ANALYST 50 YEARS IN THE BUSINESS SEES RECESSION AND SAYS
FINANCIALS HAVE BECOME IMPENETRABLE IN TERMS OF ANALYSIS/LOSSES, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS WE’RE NOWHERE NEAR IMPROVEMENT IN R.E./HOUSING MARKET,
YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION WITH HIGHER INFLATION LOWER GROWTH
(STAGFLATION) AND THAT FED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN WRONG AND ONLY RECESSION TO
BRING DOWN INFLATION, new record LOW
FOR DOLLAR AGAINST EURO AND SWISS FRANC (AND EVEN WORTH LESS THAN THE LOWLY
CANADIAN LOONEY, ETC.) WHICH ALONG WITH DEFICIT SPENDING IS HYPERINFLATIONARY
AS OIL SEES NEW INTRADAY HIGH OF $102.64, SALES/ORDERS OF DURABLE GOODS DOWN
MORE THAN EXPECTED 5.3%, BERNANKE’S NEGATIVE COMMENTS ON GREENSPAN RECESSION
PROMISES RATE CUTS FOR NEW BUBBLE WHICH RALLIES STOCKS, ONE ANALYST SAYS BANKS
AS THEIR OWN INSURERS INCREASES RISK, ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DEFICIT
SPENDING INCREASES INFLATIONARY PROBLEMS/RISK, FORECLOSURES/BANK REPO’S UP 90%
YEAR OVER YEAR, REGULATORS PREDICT OVER 100 BANK FAILURES, FORECLOSURES UP 57%
IN JANUARY, WHOLESALE INFLATION UP MUCH HIGHER THAN EXPECTED 7.5% (CORE RATE
4+%), 9% DROP IN HOME VALUES/PRICES, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOWN TO 17 YEAR LOW,
ELECTION YEAR/PROTECT INCOMPETENT INCUMBENT GOV’T PRINTING WORTHLESS DOLLARS
LIKE MAD WITH EXCESS LIQUIDITY CHASING TOO FEW GOODS (IE., FOOD UP 6%, ETC.)
WHICH IS HYPER-INFLATIONARY, ECONOMIST/ANALYST DR. KELLNER SAYS EASIER
MONEY/FISCAL PACKAGE WON’T REFLATE HOUSING MARKET (RECESSION), ANOTHER ANALYST
SAYS IN BEAR MARKET/RECESSION RECOMMENDS DEFENSIVE/PREFERRED STOCKS/BONDS/CASH,
DR. SHILLER- CASE-SHILLER INDEX- HOME VALUES CONTINUED DECLINE AND IN OR ABOUT
TO ENTER RECESSION (that’s already here), Stiglitz
Blames Greenspan For Recession, IBM ON $15 BILLION BUYBACK AND JAWBONING
AND SIGNIFICANT OVERSEAS SALES (AND POSITIVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO THE
WORTHLESS DOLLAR) RALLIES MARKET (WHAT BULL S**T), SHARPLY LOWER AND MORE WORTHLESS DOLLAR/HIGH OIL PRICE RALLY
CREATES YET ANOTHER B.S. SWING OF OVER 200 POINTS TO THE UPSIDE, FOOD PRICES UP
6% ON ETHANOL CROWD-OUT, HOME SALES
DOWN 5.5% / MEDIAN SALES PRICE DOWN 4.6%, ONE R.E. EXPERT SAYS WITH SALES
FALLING AND FORECLOSURES RISING WORSE YET TO COME, LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
FELL FOR FOURTH MONTH IN A ROW (-.1%), PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX
UNEXPECTEDLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER (The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index fell
to a -24, indicating a sharp contraction in the region's manufacturing
activity. Economists had anticipated a reading of -10, a less pronounced
contraction. Last month the reading came in at -20.9.), ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS SIGNIFICANT INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT-STAGFLATION-AHEAD ALONG WITH
CONTINUED DEFLATION OF HOUSING BUBBLE WITH NATIONWIDE AVERAGE PRICE DECLINE OF
8-10% AND ANOTHER DECLINE OF 15-20% TO COME. SUCKERS’ INTRA-DAY BEAR MARKET RALLY BASED
UPON B**L S**T ALONE (NOTHING WHATSOEVER) TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE
COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING.
) (DOW +420, NASDAQ +91, S&P
+54) [CLOSE- OIL $109.42(+$3.74) / GOLD $1003/ SILVER $19.96/ PLATINUM $1,968/
DOLLAR AT 1.57 AGAINST EURO, 100 YEN, BELOW 1 SWISS FRANC, ETC. (How low can
you go)]. Suckers’ bear market irrationally exuberant bubble rally on fed
fear and trembling panic move TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE
COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING. I WARNED AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA
BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I
WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL
INTO STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL).
SMART MONEY WOULD SELL ON ANY STRENGTH (TAKE PROFITS). REALITY: THIS IS A BEAR MARKET IN A SECULAR
BEAR MARKET IN A RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A SECULAR (AND QUITE PERMANENT-THEY’VE
MADE ALL THE WRONG CHOICES) ECONOMIC DOWNTREND IN THE U.S. ONE
ANALYST/REPORTER/ JOURNALIST FROM INSIDE SOURCES PEGS THE SUB-PRIME DOLLAR
VALUE OF THE SHILLED WORTHLESS PAPER AT $516 TRILLION (EVEN A PERCENTAGE OF
SAME RENDERS THE PROBLEM UNFIXABLE-HENCE, CULPABLE PARTIES MUST BE HELD
ACCOUNTABLE AND DISGORGE THEIR ILL-GOTTEN GAINS FROM, IE., COMMISSIONING
WORTHLESS PAPER, TAKING A POINT HERE OR THERE AND FRAUDULENTLY PASSING SAME ON,
AD INFINITUM, ETC.). Time to put the wall street among other corporate frauds
in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their ill-gotten
gains. [Please
note: I seldom name analysts/reporters/journalists bearing not so glad tidings
for fear they’ll be crucified by the frauds on wall street]. (3-17-08) (DOW +21, NASDAQ -35, S&P –11.6) [CLOSE-
OIL $105.68 / GOLD $1002.60 new record/ SILVER $20.11/ PLATINUM $1,959/ DOLLAR
AT NEW RECORD LOWs AGAINST EURO above $1.59 intraday, 95.72 YEN, BELOW 1 SWISS
FRANC, ETC. (How low can you go)]. LUNATIC/FRAUDS 200+ point computerized BUY
PROGRAM suckers’ bear market/short-covering rally to the upside based upon
nothing whatsoever that hasn’t already been discounted (ie., more rate cuts by fed
in panic mode, etc.). I WARNED AGAINST THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST
GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND
STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR
HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL). INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FELL
A GREATER THAN EXPECTED ONE-HALF OF 1%. ONE ANALYST CITES NEW LOWS FOR DOLLAR
AND SUBSTANTIAL MOVE BY FED ALREADY DISCOUNTED (.75%). ANOTHER ANALYST CITES
WEAKER DOLLAR AND SLOWER ECONOMY IMPACTING DEMAND (IE., FOR GOODS, ETC., AND
HENCE, COMMODITY PRICES, HENCE LOWER OIL PRICE THIS DAY), CITES THIS DAYS
SHORT-COVERING RALLY AND RECOMEMMENDS MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS
(POSITIVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION) AND OVERSEAS NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES
(UTILITIES, ETC.). YET aNOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST CITES BUSINESS MODELS
COMPARABLE TO BEAR STEARNS IN FINANCIAL SECTOR(PROBLEMS WITH HEDGE
FUNDS/INVESTMENT BANKS) WHICH HAS PROVEN INABILITY TO MANAGE THEIR OWN AFFAIRS
SAYING DEREGULATION A DISASTER AND REREGULATION A CURE, NO END TO FALL IN
DOLLAR AS US BECOMES WORLD’S BEGGAR, AND RECOMMENDS NON-DOLLAR DENOMINATED
SECURITIES (IE., EURO, SWISS FRANC, ETC., AND EMERGING FAR EAST MARKETS).
ANOTHER MORE CALIFORNIA/SENILE, ANALYST/BROKER WHO LIKE OTHERS HAVE LOST SUBSTANTIAL MONIES FOR
CLIENTS CITES LACK OF OF TRANSPARENCY AS VALUE OF HIS BUYS AND HOLDS CONTINUES
TO FALL WITH DOLLAR BUT TALKS SOME SPECULATIVE BUYS AND CASH. A FINANCIAL TIMES
EDITOR SAYS NO BOTTOM YET, THAT BY HISTORICAL STANDARDS THE SCENARIO IS QUITE
BAD FOR THE US, THAT BEAR STEARNS WAS NOT ALONE AMONG US FIRMS IN THEIR
PROBLEMS, THAT THE MARKET IS EXPECTING 1% PANIC CUT BY FED, AND THAT THE US
ECONOMY IS IN DEEP TROUBLE. 3-14-08 early surge based on false benign inflation
report (showing no change in retail inflation) from the government gives way to
reality that they can’t cover up/lie about (despite intra-day suckers rally)
when there is a run on large wall street investment bank bear stearns (first
such since the great depression) which cites liquidity crisis as ny fed and jp
morgan intervene with 28 day loan as bear is holding high risk (worthless)
assets which are illiquid (thinly traded/can’t be sold) as reserves (they are
not alone in this regard among the frauds on wallstreet, etc., and only 2 days
ago bear said balance sheet stable), all time lows for the dollar, wsj reports
majority of economists think we’re in recession, michigan (non-washington
non-fed gov’t report) sentiment index at new 16 year low. One ANALYST SAYS
DOLLAR WEAKNESS/LOWER YIELDS/ECONOMIC CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE DOWNWARD TREND,
INFLATION REPORT SURPRISE/FOOLISH AND HIGHER INFLATION NUMBER FOR MARCH,
CRESCENDO OF BAD NEWS IN COMING WEEK AND LOOK FOR NEW LOWS/BOTTOM(?). OIL
ANALYST CITES WEAK DOLLAR/EASY MONEY FLOWS AND SAYS LOOK FOR OIL AT $120-$125.
ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS ITS TOO LATE FOR FED TO TURN THIS
WRITEDOWN/SUBPRIME/ECONOMIC DOWNTURN AROUND WITH BEAR ANOTHER $35-$70 BILLION
BAD AND WHAT AFTER 28 DAY LOAN-EXPECT TAKEOVER/NO MORE BEAR STEARNS. 3-13-08 SMART MONEY WOULD SELL INTO
THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY (TAKE PROFITS) WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T
ALONE (NOTHING WHATSOEVER) AS STANDARD AND POORS ANALYST SAYS THE END OF
WRITEDOWNS MIGHT (BUT NOT QUITE) BE IN SIGHT
(WHICH IS LIKE THAT BROKER WHO SELLS STOCKS FOR A LIVING SAYING HE’S
TRYING TO KEEP CLIENTS IN STOCKS BECAUSE AT SOME POINT THEY’LL GO
UP)…RIIIIIGHT….. WHICH IS MEANINGLESS COMING FROM STANDARD AND POORS WHICH
SHOULD BE ACCOUNTABLE/LIABLE (FOR THIS FRAUD) ALONG WITH THE FRAUDS ON WALL
STREET, ETC., FOR THE TRIPLE A RATED SECURITIES ON THE BOOKS WHICH EVERYONE
KNOWS ARE IN FACT NOT TRIPLE A (WORTHLESS JUNK BONDS, ASSETS, ETC.) SPURRING
200+ POINT SWING TO THE UPSIDE. VAST MAJORITY OF ECONOMISTS NOW SAY WE’RE IN
RECESSION (EVEN DESPITE ELECTION YEAR GIMMICKS-AS GOOD AS GETS). RETAIL SALES
DOWN MORE THAN EXPECTED .6%, FORECLOSURES UP 60% YEAR OVER YEAR, DOLLAR DOWN
SHARPLY. ONE ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED UNEMPLOYMENT/EMPLOYMENT WEAKNESS, PREMATURE
TO SAY AS DID S&P THAT WE’RE NEAR END OF WRITEDOWNS, MAJORITY OF ECONOMISTS
NOW SAY WE’RE IN RECESSION, HOUSING DOWNTURN MUCH FURTHER TO GO, VERY DEFENSIVE
AS STOCKS CONTINUE TO HIT NEW LOWS IN LARGE NUMBERS, WORST OF HOUSING CRISIS
AHEAD, AND THIS IS A BEAR MARKET IN A RECESSION ECONOMY. ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS U.S. CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS, LACK OF TRUST IN U.S.
FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND TRIPLE A RATINGS (BONDS, ETC., WHICH EVERYONE KNOWS
ARE NOT), BANKS’ NEED FOR RECAPITALIZATION, LOW SAVINGS (IE., CONSUMERS USING
IE., GIFT CARDS FOR GROCERIES, ETC.), FED LOSING CREDIBILITY BY
FLIP-FLOPS/WRONG MOVES, AND SEES ONLY SHORT-COVERING RALLIES AT BEST. VENEZUELA
SHIFT TO PAYMENT IN EUROS FOR OIL OUT OF DOLLARS. YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST SAYS
WITH MONEY SUPPLY INCREASING AT EXORBITANT 27% PER ANNUM, CITING ECONOMIST
FRIEDMAN SAYS HYPER-INFLATIONARY (CONTRARY TO LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS
ECONOMISTS WHO THIS DAY SEE LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS REAL ESTATE DOWN 17.6%,
SALES DOWN 40-45%, AND MEDIAN HOME PRICES DOWN $100,000, AND BUDGET DEFICITS
ACROSS THE BOARD). 3-12-08VERY MODEST
DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY, DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY ON PANICKY FED KNEE
JERK FUNNY MONEY ACTION, ONE ANALYST/BROKER WHO SELLS STOCKS FOR A LIVING SAYS
HE’S TRYING TO KEEP CLIENTS IN STOCKS BECAUSE AT SOME POINT THEY’LL GO
UP…..RIIIIIGHT…..REFERENCES THAT THIS IS WORST R.E. DOWNTURN IN 100 YEARS AND
NO BOTTOM YET IN R.E. AND WSJ SAYS WORSE TO COME IN BAD PAPER (WRITEDOWNS, ETC.),
AN OIL ANALYST SAYS RECORD HIGH OIL PRICES ARE HEDGE AGAINST FALLING DOLLAR
WITH A LOT OF DOLLARS RELATIVE TO GOODS (AS IE., OIL, OTHER COMMODITIES,
ETC.-HYPERINFLATION) AND IF YOU HOLD DOLLARS/DOLLAR DENOMINATED
ASSETS/SECURITIES YOU LOSE VALUE AND SEES $4.00 GAS NATIONWIDE WITH RECORD
DIESEL, WHILE ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS THAT SEEING FED GO FROM LENDER OF LAST
RESORT TO LENDER (PRINTER) OF FIRST RESORT IS WORRISOME/TROUBLESOME. 3-11-08 Suckers’ bear market irrationally exuberant new
EPHEMERAL bubble rally on fed fear and
trembling panic move TO ADD $200 BILLION IN WORLDWIDE LIQUIDITY
BY TEMPORARILY REPLACING (28 DAYS) ONE TYPE OF FUNNY-MONEY (WORTHLESS SUBPRIME
COLLATERALIZED DEBT) WITH ANOTHER LONGER TERM WORTHLESS FUNNY-MONEY (U.S. DEBT
WHICH CAN’T BE PAID BACK) WHICH IS A GREAT B.S. TALKING POINT BUT JUST A DROP
IN THE BUCKET CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UNDISCLOSED WRITEDOWNS/WORTHLESS
PAPER BEING HELD(AND, CURING A BUBBLE WITH A NEW BUBBLE-I DON'T THINK SO), ONE
ANALYST POINTS TO THE HYPERINFLATIONARY EFFECTS OF TOO MUCH LIQUIDITY CHASING
TOO FEW GOODS AND MORE BAD NEWS TO COME IN TECH SECTOR AND EARNINGS ALONG WITH
MORE WRITEOFFS/WRITEDOWNS WITH WORSE TO COME/NO BOTTOM YET AND HE REMAINS A
BEAR, LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS ECONOMIST SAYS BAD BUT NOT TECHNICALLY RECESSION
BASED ON GOVERNMENT ELECTION-YEAR DATA (ONLY NUTS AND NUTS FROM THE LAND OF
FRUITS AND NUTS BELIEVE SAME) WHILE TWO OTHER ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH
STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS/HIGH INFLATION/LOWER DOLLAR AS FOREIGNERS/INVESTORS GET OUT
OF WORTHLESS DOLLAR WITH BIG TROUBLE FOR U.S. POST-ELECTION AS REALITY SETS IN,
TRADE GAP WIDENED, AND SMART MONEY WOULD SELL THIS RALLY/TAKE PROFITS. 3-10-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS
RELATIVE TO REALITY, NEW BANK DOWNGRADES, MORGAN SLASHES EARNINGS ESTIMATES FOR
S&P AND SAYS ALREADY IN RECESSION, EVEN MORE ECONOMISTS NOW SAY THE
OBVIOUS/RECESSION, RUMOR THAT BEAR STERNS WITH SUBSTANTIAL LIQUIDITY ISSUES IS
GOING UNDER, DOLLAR DOWN, EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT ON CITIBANK AND BANKOFAMERICA,
ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS (HYPERINFLATIONARY) HIGH ENERGY AND FOOD PRICES
(CONVENIENTLY LEFT OUT OF THE FED’S “TOUTED” CORE RATE) ARE SQUEEZING THE
CONSUMER (AND HENCE, CONSUMPTION/65% OF GDP) AND THAT COMMODITIES A BUBBLE AND
MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS/POSITVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO WEAKER
DOLLAR PREFERRED, AN OIL ANALYST SAYS $200 OIL POSSIBLE (REITERATING GOLDMAN)
WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING OF DOLLAR, ANOTHER ANALYST/JOURNALIST SAYS SELL DOLLAR
DENOMINATED STOCKS/SECURITIES/ASSETS WHICH HAVE MUCH FURTHER TO FALL AND REITERATES
AS DID BARRON’S THAT MORTGAGE INSURERS HAVE OVER $5 TRILLION IN DEBT/EXPOSURE
AND THAT MANY OF THE NATIONS BANKS ARE ALREADY INSOLVENT SO GET OUT OF THE
DOLLAR AND U.S. STOCKS. 3-7-08 BAD EMPLOYMENT/JOBS DATA across ALL
SECTORS AS 63,000 JOBS LOST WITH DOWNWARD REVISIONS TO DECEMBER AND JANUARY
(ACTUALLY LOST 20,000) JOBS NUMBERS, ONE ANALYST SAYS WE’RE IN A RECESSION
WHILE MORE ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH ONE STATING THAT YOU ALMOST NEVER SEE
BACK-TO-BACK MONTHLY DECLINE IN EMPLOYMENT WITHOUT RECESSION AS NOW, DOLLAR AT
NEW RECORD LOWS, CONSUMERS INCREASED BORROWING TO STAY AFLOAT, WASHINGTON
MUTUAL FURTHER DOWNGRADES, SUPPORT LEVELS BROKEN TO THE DOWNSIDE, sentiment-
85% believe things will get worse. 3-6-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY
TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS
FLOWING. 23% INCREASE IN FORECLOSURES IN
FOURTH QUARTER NEW RECORD HIGH, DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOWS, 10% OF HOMES WITH 0
OR NEGATIVE EQUITY, MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION SAYS HOME FORECLOSURES AT
ALL-TIME HIGH AND GOING HIGHER, ONE R.E. ANALYST SAYS ROUGH YEAR AHEAD WITH
FORECLOSURES AND DEFAULTS UP, ONE ANALYST SAYS MARKET WILL TEST NEW
LOWS/SUPPORT LEVELS WITH FLIGHT TO “QUALITY”/TREASURIES, LENDER THORNBURG
DEFAULTS AND ALONG WITH WASHINGTON MUTUAL IS DOWNGRADED, CONTINUING CLAIMS FOR
UNEMPLOYMENT AT HIGH LEVELS MEANS COMPANIES SHRINKING, IGNORE KNEE-JERK
ELECTION YEAR GOVERNMENT HUNKY DORY FAKE REPORTS. 3-5-08 OIL INVENTORIES
LESS THAN EXPECTED, FED BEIGE BOOK CITES ECONOMIC WEAKNESS PARTICULARLY SINCE
BEGINNING OF THE YEAR, LABOR COSTS ROSE, RISING PRICE PRESSURES/STAGFLATION,
RECESSION/BEAR MARKET, ONE ANALYST SAYS TOUGH FIRST HALF RECOMMENDS
MULTINATIONALS WITH 50% OVERSEAS EARNINGS (FAVORABLE CURRENCY TRANSLATION) AND CONSUMER
STAPLES/HEALTH RELATED/DEFENSIVE STOCKS, AMBAC TO FLOAT STOCK TO SHORE UP
BALANCE SHEET TO TUNE OF $1.5 BILLION/DILUTION AND SHARES FALL $2 TO $8.70, OIL ANALYST CITES DECLINE IN OIL
INVENTORIES/DIESEL/JET FUEL AND WEAK DOLLAR AND TOP $108-$110 BUT $120-$130 IF
VENEZUELA/COLUMBIA CONFLICT AND MORE RECORD HIGH GAS PRICES TO COME, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DECLINE IN REAL ESTATE/HOUSING WITH STARTS
DOWN 15-20-40% ON WELL DESERVED PESSIMISM/CREDIT CRUNCH. 3-4-08 Suckers’ bear market rally into the close based on b**l s**t alone,
viz., rumor/speculation about yet another bailout for wall street/ambac/bond
insurers and over 200 point swing to the upside based on nothing whatsoever,
one economist/analyst notes this is the deepest housing decline since great
depression, bernanke says another spike in foreclosures ahead and proposes
reduction of principal amounts in existing loans (sounds like a
plan…..riiiiight!), ken shreve finance editor investors business daily says
bear market 6-9 months/ don’t try to catch a falling knife as institutions
still selling/keep money safe in 3% money market for time being, one oil
analyst says oil higher before lower as expected rate cut will further weaken
dollar and drive up oil/commodities prices and problems in consumer debt in
addition to mortgages and nobody wants to hold dollars, 3-3-08 Suckers’ bear market rally into the close, yes we are in a recession
from someone who unlike the frauds on wall street has read security analysis
by graham, dodd, and cottle and understands it (warren buffet), all news
negative, ie., ism manufacturing index down to 48.3 (contraction), car sales
down at gm (-12%) and ford (-7%), construction spending down most in 14 years,
oil analysts point to the new highs while economist/analyst says dollar has
fallen through all support levels meaning more bottoms to come, INFLATION
OUTPACING CONSUMER SPENDING (EVEN WITH SPENDING NUMBER HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
WHICH PROBABLY MEANS REALITY WAS NEGATIVE), CONSUMER CONFIDENCE/SENTIMENT DOWN SHARPLY,
CHICAGO MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN INDICATING CONTRACTION, $5.29 BILLION LOSS FOR
AIG ON WRITEOFFS, INTRA DAY HIGH FOR OIL OVER $103, INFLATION/WEAK
DOLLAR/ECONOMIC WEAKNESS=STAGFLATION, FOURTH MONTHLY DECLINE IN A ROW FOR STOCK
MARKET, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST IF NOT THEN ALMOST IN RECESSION WITH WORSE
INFLATION NEWS AND INFLATION ADJUSTED INCOME/SPENDING FLAT, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION AND CITES NEGATIVE SAVINGS RATE AND FURTHER
ECONOMIC WEAKNESS, ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED ECONOMIC WEAKNESS WITH FURTHER DOLLAR
DECLINE SO BULLISH ON METALS AND BEARISH ON STOCKS, AND YET ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS INFLATION/RECESSION BUT NOT DEPRESSION…..RIIIIIGHT, GDP
GROWTH REPORTED MUCH LESS THAN EXPECTED (BUT CLOSER TO REALITY) AT
MINISCULE .6%, UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS JUMP
19,000 TO 373,000 AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE POST KATRINA, BERNANKE SAYS CONSUMER
WORSE OFF THAN JUST AFTER 911(?) AND THAT SOME BANKS COULD (WILL) FAIL AND THAT
STAGFLATION WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS THE 70’S, FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC SHOW MASSIVE
LOSSES, ONE ANALYST 50 YEARS IN THE BUSINESS SEES RECESSION AND SAYS FINANCIALS
HAVE BECOME IMPENETRABLE IN TERMS OF ANALYSIS/LOSSES, ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS WE’RE NOWHERE NEAR IMPROVEMENT IN R.E./HOUSING MARKET, YET ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION WITH HIGHER INFLATION LOWER GROWTH
(STAGFLATION) AND THAT FED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN WRONG AND ONLY RECESSION TO
BRING DOWN INFLATION, new record LOW
FOR DOLLAR AGAINST EURO AND SWISS FRANC (AND EVEN WORTH LESS THAN THE LOWLY
CANADIAN LOONEY, ETC.) WHICH ALONG WITH DEFICIT SPENDING IS HYPERINFLATIONARY
AS OIL SEES NEW INTRADAY HIGH OF $102.64, SALES/ORDERS OF DURABLE GOODS DOWN
MORE THAN EXPECTED 5.3%, BERNANKE’S NEGATIVE COMMENTS ON GREENSPAN RECESSION
PROMISES RATE CUTS FOR NEW BUBBLE WHICH RALLIES STOCKS, ONE ANALYST SAYS BANKS
AS THEIR OWN INSURERS INCREASES RISK, ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DEFICIT
SPENDING INCREASES INFLATIONARY PROBLEMS/RISK, FORECLOSURES/BANK REPO’S UP 90%
YEAR OVER YEAR, REGULATORS PREDICT OVER 100 BANK FAILURES, FORECLOSURES UP 57%
IN JANUARY, WHOLESALE INFLATION UP MUCH HIGHER THAN EXPECTED 7.5% (CORE RATE
4+%), 9% DROP IN HOME VALUES/PRICES, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOWN TO 17 YEAR LOW,
ELECTION YEAR/PROTECT INCOMPETENT INCUMBENT GOV’T PRINTING WORTHLESS DOLLARS
LIKE MAD WITH EXCESS LIQUIDITY CHASING TOO FEW GOODS (IE., FOOD UP 6%, ETC.)
WHICH IS HYPER-INFLATIONARY, ECONOMIST/ANALYST DR. KELLNER SAYS EASIER
MONEY/FISCAL PACKAGE WON’T REFLATE HOUSING MARKET (RECESSION), ANOTHER ANALYST
SAYS IN BEAR MARKET/RECESSION RECOMMENDS DEFENSIVE/PREFERRED STOCKS/BONDS/CASH,
DR. SHILLER- CASE-SHILLER INDEX- HOME VALUES CONTINUED DECLINE AND IN OR ABOUT
TO ENTER RECESSION (that’s already here), Stiglitz
Blames Greenspan For Recession, IBM ON $15 BILLION BUYBACK AND JAWBONING
AND SIGNIFICANT OVERSEAS SALES (AND POSITIVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO THE
WORTHLESS DOLLAR) RALLIES MARKET (WHAT BULL S**T), SHARPLY LOWER AND MORE WORTHLESS DOLLAR/HIGH OIL PRICE RALLY
CREATES YET ANOTHER B.S. SWING OF OVER 200 POINTS TO THE UPSIDE, FOOD PRICES UP
6% ON ETHANOL CROWD-OUT, HOME SALES
DOWN 5.5% / MEDIAN SALES PRICE DOWN 4.6%, ONE R.E. EXPERT SAYS WITH SALES
FALLING AND FORECLOSURES RISING WORSE YET TO COME, LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
FELL FOR FOURTH MONTH IN A ROW (-.1%), PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX
UNEXPECTEDLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER (The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index fell
to a -24, indicating a sharp contraction in the region's manufacturing
activity. Economists had anticipated a reading of -10, a less pronounced
contraction. Last month the reading came in at -20.9.), ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS SIGNIFICANT INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT-STAGFLATION-AHEAD ALONG WITH
CONTINUED DEFLATION OF HOUSING BUBBLE WITH NATIONWIDE AVERAGE PRICE DECLINE OF
8-10% AND ANOTHER DECLINE OF 15-20% TO COME. SUCKERS’ INTRA-DAY BEAR MARKET RALLY BASED
UPON B**L S**T ALONE (NOTHING WHATSOEVER) TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE
COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING.
) (DOW +21, NASDAQ -35, S&P –11.6)
[CLOSE- OIL $105.68 / GOLD $1002.60 new record/ SILVER $20.11/ PLATINUM $1,959/
DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOWs AGAINST EURO above $1.59 intraday, 95.72 YEN, BELOW 1
SWISS FRANC, ETC. (How low can you go)]. LUNATIC/FRAUDS suckers’ bear
market/short-covering rally based upon nothing whatsoever. I WARNED AGAINST
THE DEBACLE IN IRAQ, I WARNED AGAINST GIVING DUMBYA BUSH WAR POWERS, I WARNED
OF THE BUBBLES IN REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS, AND NOW I WARN AGAINST INVESTING IN
DOLLAR DENOMINATED SECURITIES OR HOLDING SAME (SELL INTO STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS/SELL).
SMART MONEY WOULD SELL ON ANY STRENGTH (TAKE PROFITS). REALITY: THIS IS A BEAR MARKET IN A SECULAR
BEAR MARKET IN A RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A SECULAR (AND QUITE PERMANENT-THEY’VE
MADE ALL THE WRONG CHOICES) ECONOMIC DOWNTREND IN THE U.S. ONE
ANALYST/REPORTER/ JOURNALIST FROM INSIDE SOURCES PEGS THE SUB-PRIME DOLLAR
VALUE OF THE SHILLED WORTHLESS PAPER AT $516 TRILLION (EVEN A PERCENTAGE OF
SAME RENDERS THE PROBLEM UNFIXABLE-HENCE, CULPABLE PARTIES MUST BE HELD
ACCOUNTABLE AND DISGORGE THEIR ILL-GOTTEN GAINS FROM, IE., COMMISSIONING
WORTHLESS PAPER, TAKING A POINT HERE OR THERE AND FRAUDULENTLY PASSING SAME ON,
AD INFINITUM, ETC.). Time to put the wall street among other corporate frauds
in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their ill-gotten
gains. [Please
note: I seldom name analysts/reporters/journalists bearing not so glad tidings
for fear they’ll be crucified by the frauds on wall street]. (3-14-08) (DOW -195, NASDAQ -51, S&P -27) [CLOSE-
OIL $110.21 / GOLD $999.50 new intra-day high ABOVE $1,009/ SILVER $20.66/
PLATINUM $2,076/ DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOW AGAINST EURO NEAR $1.57, BELOW 100
YEN, BELOW 1 SWISS FRANC, ETC. (How low can you go)]. SELL INTO
STRENGTH/TAKE PROFITS. early surge based on false benign inflation report
(showing no change in retail inflation) from the government gives way to
reality that they can’t cover up/lie about (despite intra-day suckers rally)
when there is a run on large wall street investment bank bear stearns (first
such since the great depression) which cites liquidity crisis as ny fed and jp
morgan intervene with 28 day loan as bear is holding high risk (worthless)
assets which are illiquid (thinly traded/can’t be sold) as reserves (they are
not alone in this regard among the frauds on wallstreet, etc., and only 2 days
ago bear said balance sheet stable), all time lows for the dollar, wsj reports
majority of economists think we’re in recession, michigan (non-washington
non-fed gov’t report) sentiment index at new 16 year low. One ANALYST SAYS
DOLLAR WEAKNESS/LOWER YIELDS/ECONOMIC CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE DOWNWARD TREND,
INFLATION REPORT SURPRISE/FOOLISH AND HIGHER INFLATION NUMBER FOR MARCH,
CRESCENDO OF BAD NEWS IN COMING WEEK AND LOOK FOR NEW LOWS/BOTTOM(?). OIL
ANALYST CITES WEAK DOLLAR/EASY MONEY FLOWS AND SAYS LOOK FOR OIL AT $120-$125.
ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS ITS TOO LATE FOR FED TO TURN THIS
WRITEDOWN/SUBPRIME/ECONOMIC DOWNTURN AROUND WITH BEAR ANOTHER $35-$70 BILLION
BAD AND WHAT AFTER 28 DAY LOAN-EXPECT TAKEOVER/NO MORE BEAR STEARNS. 3-13-08 SMART MONEY WOULD SELL INTO
THIS SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY (TAKE PROFITS) WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T
ALONE (NOTHING WHATSOEVER) AS STANDARD AND POORS ANALYST SAYS THE END OF
WRITEDOWNS MIGHT (BUT NOT QUITE) BE IN SIGHT
(WHICH IS LIKE THAT BROKER WHO SELLS STOCKS FOR A LIVING SAYING HE’S
TRYING TO KEEP CLIENTS IN STOCKS BECAUSE AT SOME POINT THEY’LL GO
UP)…RIIIIIGHT….. WHICH IS MEANINGLESS COMING FROM STANDARD AND POORS WHICH
SHOULD BE ACCOUNTABLE/LIABLE (FOR THIS FRAUD) ALONG WITH THE FRAUDS ON WALL
STREET, ETC., FOR THE TRIPLE A RATED SECURITIES ON THE BOOKS WHICH EVERYONE
KNOWS ARE IN FACT NOT TRIPLE A (WORTHLESS JUNK BONDS, ASSETS, ETC.) SPURRING
200+ POINT SWING TO THE UPSIDE. VAST MAJORITY OF ECONOMISTS NOW SAY WE’RE IN
RECESSION (EVEN DESPITE ELECTION YEAR GIMMICKS-AS GOOD AS GETS). RETAIL SALES
DOWN MORE THAN EXPECTED .6%, FORECLOSURES UP 60% YEAR OVER YEAR, DOLLAR DOWN
SHARPLY. ONE ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED UNEMPLOYMENT/EMPLOYMENT WEAKNESS, PREMATURE
TO SAY AS DID S&P THAT WE’RE NEAR END OF WRITEDOWNS, MAJORITY OF ECONOMISTS
NOW SAY WE’RE IN RECESSION, HOUSING DOWNTURN MUCH FURTHER TO GO, VERY DEFENSIVE
AS STOCKS CONTINUE TO HIT NEW LOWS IN LARGE NUMBERS, WORST OF HOUSING CRISIS
AHEAD, AND THIS IS A BEAR MARKET IN A RECESSION ECONOMY. ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS U.S. CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS, LACK OF TRUST IN U.S.
FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND TRIPLE A RATINGS (BONDS, ETC., WHICH EVERYONE KNOWS
ARE NOT), BANKS’ NEED FOR RECAPITALIZATION, LOW SAVINGS (IE., CONSUMERS USING
IE., GIFT CARDS FOR GROCERIES, ETC.), FED LOSING CREDIBILITY BY
FLIP-FLOPS/WRONG MOVES, AND SEES ONLY SHORT-COVERING RALLIES AT BEST. VENEZUELA
SHIFT TO PAYMENT IN EUROS FOR OIL OUT OF DOLLARS. YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST SAYS
WITH MONEY SUPPLY INCREASING AT EXORBITANT 27% PER ANNUM, CITING ECONOMIST
FRIEDMAN SAYS HYPER-INFLATIONARY (CONTRARY TO LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS
ECONOMISTS WHO THIS DAY SEE LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS REAL ESTATE DOWN 17.6%,
SALES DOWN 40-45%, AND MEDIAN HOME PRICES DOWN $100,000, AND BUDGET DEFICITS
ACROSS THE BOARD). 3-12-08VERY MODEST
DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY, DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY ON PANICKY FED KNEE
JERK FUNNY MONEY ACTION, ONE ANALYST/BROKER WHO SELLS STOCKS FOR A LIVING SAYS
HE’S TRYING TO KEEP CLIENTS IN STOCKS BECAUSE AT SOME POINT THEY’LL GO
UP…..RIIIIIGHT…..REFERENCES THAT THIS IS WORST R.E. DOWNTURN IN 100 YEARS AND
NO BOTTOM YET IN R.E. AND WSJ SAYS WORSE TO COME IN BAD PAPER (WRITEDOWNS,
ETC.), AN OIL ANALYST SAYS RECORD HIGH OIL PRICES ARE HEDGE AGAINST FALLING
DOLLAR WITH A LOT OF DOLLARS RELATIVE TO GOODS (AS IE., OIL, OTHER COMMODITIES,
ETC.-HYPERINFLATION) AND IF YOU HOLD DOLLARS/DOLLAR DENOMINATED
ASSETS/SECURITIES YOU LOSE VALUE AND SEES $4.00 GAS NATIONWIDE WITH RECORD
DIESEL, WHILE ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS THAT SEEING FED GO FROM LENDER OF LAST
RESORT TO LENDER (PRINTER) OF FIRST RESORT IS WORRISOME/TROUBLESOME. 3-11-08 Suckers’ bear market irrationally exuberant new
EPHEMERAL bubble rally on fed fear and
trembling panic move TO ADD $200 BILLION IN WORLDWIDE LIQUIDITY
BY TEMPORARILY REPLACING (28 DAYS) ONE TYPE OF FUNNY-MONEY (WORTHLESS SUBPRIME
COLLATERALIZED DEBT) WITH ANOTHER LONGER TERM WORTHLESS FUNNY-MONEY (U.S. DEBT
WHICH CAN’T BE PAID BACK) WHICH IS A GREAT B.S. TALKING POINT BUT JUST A DROP
IN THE BUCKET CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UNDISCLOSED WRITEDOWNS/WORTHLESS
PAPER BEING HELD(AND, CURING A BUBBLE WITH A NEW BUBBLE-I DON'T THINK SO), ONE
ANALYST POINTS TO THE HYPERINFLATIONARY EFFECTS OF TOO MUCH LIQUIDITY CHASING
TOO FEW GOODS AND MORE BAD NEWS TO COME IN TECH SECTOR AND EARNINGS ALONG WITH
MORE WRITEOFFS/WRITEDOWNS WITH WORSE TO COME/NO BOTTOM YET AND HE REMAINS A
BEAR, LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS ECONOMIST SAYS BAD BUT NOT TECHNICALLY RECESSION
BASED ON GOVERNMENT ELECTION-YEAR DATA (ONLY NUTS AND NUTS FROM THE LAND OF
FRUITS AND NUTS BELIEVE SAME) WHILE TWO OTHER ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH
STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS/HIGH INFLATION/LOWER DOLLAR AS FOREIGNERS/INVESTORS GET OUT
OF WORTHLESS DOLLAR WITH BIG TROUBLE FOR U.S. POST-ELECTION AS REALITY SETS IN,
TRADE GAP WIDENED, AND SMART MONEY WOULD SELL THIS RALLY/TAKE PROFITS. 3-10-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS
RELATIVE TO REALITY, NEW BANK DOWNGRADES, MORGAN SLASHES EARNINGS ESTIMATES FOR
S&P AND SAYS ALREADY IN RECESSION, EVEN MORE ECONOMISTS NOW SAY THE
OBVIOUS/RECESSION, RUMOR THAT BEAR STERNS WITH SUBSTANTIAL LIQUIDITY ISSUES IS
GOING UNDER, DOLLAR DOWN, EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT ON CITIBANK AND BANKOFAMERICA,
ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS (HYPERINFLATIONARY) HIGH ENERGY AND FOOD PRICES
(CONVENIENTLY LEFT OUT OF THE FED’S “TOUTED” CORE RATE) ARE SQUEEZING THE
CONSUMER (AND HENCE, CONSUMPTION/65% OF GDP) AND THAT COMMODITIES A BUBBLE AND
MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS/POSITVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO WEAKER
DOLLAR PREFERRED, AN OIL ANALYST SAYS $200 OIL POSSIBLE (REITERATING GOLDMAN)
WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING OF DOLLAR, ANOTHER ANALYST/JOURNALIST SAYS SELL DOLLAR
DENOMINATED STOCKS/SECURITIES/ASSETS WHICH HAVE MUCH FURTHER TO FALL AND
REITERATES AS DID BARRON’S THAT MORTGAGE INSURERS HAVE OVER $5 TRILLION IN
DEBT/EXPOSURE AND THAT MANY OF THE NATIONS BANKS ARE ALREADY INSOLVENT SO GET
OUT OF THE DOLLAR AND U.S. STOCKS. 3-7-08 BAD EMPLOYMENT/JOBS DATA across ALL
SECTORS AS 63,000 JOBS LOST WITH DOWNWARD REVISIONS TO DECEMBER AND JANUARY
(ACTUALLY LOST 20,000) JOBS NUMBERS, ONE ANALYST SAYS WE’RE IN A RECESSION
WHILE MORE ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH ONE STATING THAT YOU ALMOST NEVER SEE
BACK-TO-BACK MONTHLY DECLINE IN EMPLOYMENT WITHOUT RECESSION AS NOW, DOLLAR AT
NEW RECORD LOWS, CONSUMERS INCREASED BORROWING TO STAY AFLOAT, WASHINGTON
MUTUAL FURTHER DOWNGRADES, SUPPORT LEVELS BROKEN TO THE DOWNSIDE, sentiment-
85% believe things will get worse.
3-6-08 MODEST
DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE
COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING.
23% INCREASE IN FORECLOSURES IN FOURTH QUARTER NEW RECORD HIGH, DOLLAR AT NEW
RECORD LOWS, 10% OF HOMES WITH 0 OR NEGATIVE EQUITY, MORTGAGE BANKERS
ASSOCIATION SAYS HOME FORECLOSURES AT ALL-TIME HIGH AND GOING HIGHER, ONE R.E.
ANALYST SAYS ROUGH YEAR AHEAD WITH FORECLOSURES AND DEFAULTS UP, ONE ANALYST
SAYS MARKET WILL TEST NEW LOWS/SUPPORT LEVELS WITH FLIGHT TO
“QUALITY”/TREASURIES, LENDER THORNBURG DEFAULTS AND ALONG WITH WASHINGTON
MUTUAL IS DOWNGRADED, CONTINUING CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT AT HIGH LEVELS MEANS
COMPANIES SHRINKING, IGNORE KNEE-JERK ELECTION YEAR GOVERNMENT HUNKY DORY FAKE
REPORTS. 3-5-08 OIL INVENTORIES LESS THAN EXPECTED, FED BEIGE BOOK CITES
ECONOMIC WEAKNESS PARTICULARLY SINCE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR, LABOR COSTS ROSE,
RISING PRICE PRESSURES/STAGFLATION, RECESSION/BEAR MARKET, ONE ANALYST SAYS
TOUGH FIRST HALF RECOMMENDS MULTINATIONALS WITH 50% OVERSEAS EARNINGS
(FAVORABLE CURRENCY TRANSLATION) AND CONSUMER STAPLES/HEALTH RELATED/DEFENSIVE
STOCKS, AMBAC TO FLOAT STOCK TO SHORE UP BALANCE SHEET TO TUNE OF $1.5
BILLION/DILUTION AND SHARES FALL $2 TO
$8.70, OIL ANALYST CITES DECLINE IN OIL INVENTORIES/DIESEL/JET FUEL AND WEAK
DOLLAR AND TOP $108-$110 BUT $120-$130 IF VENEZUELA/COLUMBIA CONFLICT AND MORE
RECORD HIGH GAS PRICES TO COME, ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED
DECLINE IN REAL ESTATE/HOUSING WITH STARTS DOWN 15-20-40% ON WELL DESERVED
PESSIMISM/CREDIT CRUNCH. 3-4-08 Suckers’ bear market rally into the close
based on b**l s**t alone, viz., rumor/speculation about yet another bailout for
wall street/ambac/bond insurers and over 200 point swing to the upside based on
nothing whatsoever, one economist/analyst notes this is the deepest housing
decline since great depression, bernanke says another spike in foreclosures
ahead and proposes reduction of principal amounts in existing loans (sounds
like a plan…..riiiiight!), ken shreve finance editor investors business daily
says bear market 6-9 months/ don’t try to catch a falling knife as institutions
still selling/keep money safe in 3% money market for time being, one oil
analyst says oil higher before lower as expected rate cut will further weaken
dollar and drive up oil/commodities prices and problems in consumer debt in
addition to mortgages and nobody wants to hold dollars, 3-3-08 Suckers’ bear market rally into the close, yes we are in a recession
from someone who unlike the frauds on wall street has read security analysis
by graham, dodd, and cottle and understands it (warren buffet), all news
negative, ie., ism manufacturing index down to 48.3 (contraction), car sales
down at gm (-12%) and ford (-7%), construction spending down most in 14 years,
oil analysts point to the new highs while economist/analyst says dollar has
fallen through all support levels meaning more bottoms to come, INFLATION
OUTPACING CONSUMER SPENDING (EVEN WITH SPENDING NUMBER HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
WHICH PROBABLY MEANS REALITY WAS NEGATIVE), CONSUMER CONFIDENCE/SENTIMENT DOWN
SHARPLY, CHICAGO MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN INDICATING CONTRACTION, $5.29 BILLION
LOSS FOR AIG ON WRITEOFFS, INTRA DAY HIGH FOR OIL OVER $103, INFLATION/WEAK
DOLLAR/ECONOMIC WEAKNESS=STAGFLATION, FOURTH MONTHLY DECLINE IN A ROW FOR STOCK
MARKET, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST IF NOT THEN ALMOST IN RECESSION WITH WORSE
INFLATION NEWS AND INFLATION ADJUSTED INCOME/SPENDING FLAT, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION AND CITES NEGATIVE SAVINGS RATE AND FURTHER
ECONOMIC WEAKNESS, ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED ECONOMIC WEAKNESS WITH FURTHER DOLLAR
DECLINE SO BULLISH ON METALS AND BEARISH ON STOCKS, AND YET ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS INFLATION/RECESSION BUT NOT DEPRESSION…..RIIIIIGHT, GDP
GROWTH REPORTED MUCH LESS THAN EXPECTED (BUT CLOSER TO REALITY) AT
MINISCULE .6%, UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS JUMP
19,000 TO 373,000 AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE POST KATRINA, BERNANKE SAYS CONSUMER
WORSE OFF THAN JUST AFTER 911(?) AND THAT SOME BANKS COULD (WILL) FAIL AND THAT
STAGFLATION WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS THE 70’S, FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC SHOW
MASSIVE LOSSES, ONE ANALYST 50 YEARS IN THE BUSINESS SEES RECESSION AND SAYS
FINANCIALS HAVE BECOME IMPENETRABLE IN TERMS OF ANALYSIS/LOSSES, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS WE’RE NOWHERE NEAR IMPROVEMENT IN R.E./HOUSING MARKET,
YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION WITH HIGHER INFLATION LOWER GROWTH
(STAGFLATION) AND THAT FED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN WRONG AND ONLY RECESSION TO
BRING DOWN INFLATION, new record LOW
FOR DOLLAR AGAINST EURO AND SWISS FRANC (AND EVEN WORTH LESS THAN THE LOWLY
CANADIAN LOONEY, ETC.) WHICH ALONG WITH DEFICIT SPENDING IS HYPERINFLATIONARY
AS OIL SEES NEW INTRADAY HIGH OF $102.64, SALES/ORDERS OF DURABLE GOODS DOWN
MORE THAN EXPECTED 5.3%, BERNANKE’S NEGATIVE COMMENTS ON GREENSPAN RECESSION
PROMISES RATE CUTS FOR NEW BUBBLE WHICH RALLIES STOCKS, ONE ANALYST SAYS BANKS
AS THEIR OWN INSURERS INCREASES RISK, ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DEFICIT
SPENDING INCREASES INFLATIONARY PROBLEMS/RISK, FORECLOSURES/BANK REPO’S UP 90%
YEAR OVER YEAR, REGULATORS PREDICT OVER 100 BANK FAILURES, FORECLOSURES UP 57%
IN JANUARY, WHOLESALE INFLATION UP MUCH HIGHER THAN EXPECTED 7.5% (CORE RATE
4+%), 9% DROP IN HOME VALUES/PRICES, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOWN TO 17 YEAR LOW,
ELECTION YEAR/PROTECT INCOMPETENT INCUMBENT GOV’T PRINTING WORTHLESS DOLLARS
LIKE MAD WITH EXCESS LIQUIDITY CHASING TOO FEW GOODS (IE., FOOD UP 6%, ETC.)
WHICH IS HYPER-INFLATIONARY, ECONOMIST/ANALYST DR. KELLNER SAYS EASIER
MONEY/FISCAL PACKAGE WON’T REFLATE HOUSING MARKET (RECESSION), ANOTHER ANALYST
SAYS IN BEAR MARKET/RECESSION RECOMMENDS DEFENSIVE/PREFERRED STOCKS/BONDS/CASH,
DR. SHILLER- CASE-SHILLER INDEX- HOME VALUES CONTINUED DECLINE AND IN OR ABOUT
TO ENTER RECESSION (that’s already here), Stiglitz
Blames Greenspan For Recession, IBM ON $15 BILLION BUYBACK AND JAWBONING
AND SIGNIFICANT OVERSEAS SALES (AND POSITIVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO THE
WORTHLESS DOLLAR) RALLIES MARKET (WHAT BULL S**T), SHARPLY LOWER AND MORE WORTHLESS DOLLAR/HIGH OIL PRICE RALLY
CREATES YET ANOTHER B.S. SWING OF OVER 200 POINTS TO THE UPSIDE, FOOD PRICES UP
6% ON ETHANOL CROWD-OUT, HOME SALES
DOWN 5.5% / MEDIAN SALES PRICE DOWN 4.6%, ONE R.E. EXPERT SAYS WITH SALES
FALLING AND FORECLOSURES RISING WORSE YET TO COME, LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
FELL FOR FOURTH MONTH IN A ROW (-.1%), PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX
UNEXPECTEDLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER (The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index fell
to a -24, indicating a sharp contraction in the region's manufacturing
activity. Economists had anticipated a reading of -10, a less pronounced
contraction. Last month the reading came in at -20.9.), ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS SIGNIFICANT INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT-STAGFLATION-AHEAD ALONG WITH
CONTINUED DEFLATION OF HOUSING BUBBLE WITH NATIONWIDE AVERAGE PRICE DECLINE OF 8-10%
AND ANOTHER DECLINE OF 15-20% TO COME. MODEST DROP RELATIVE TO REALITY WITH SUCKERS’ INTRA-DAY BEAR MARKET RALLY BASED UPON B**L S**T
ALONE (NOTHING WHATSOEVER) TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE
DOLLARS FLOWING. (DOW -195, NASDAQ -51,
S&P -27) [CLOSE- OIL $110.21 / GOLD $999.50 new intra-day high ABOVE
$1,009/ SILVER $20.66/ PLATINUM $2,076/ DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOW AGAINST EURO
NEAR $1.57, BELOW 100 YEN, BELOW 1 SWISS FRANC, ETC. (How low can you go)]. SMART
MONEY WOULD SELL ON ANY STRENGTH (TAKE PROFITS). REALITY: THIS IS A BEAR MARKET IN A SECULAR BEAR MARKET IN A
RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A SECULAR (AND QUITE PERMANENT-THEY’VE MADE ALL THE WRONG
CHOICES) ECONOMIC DOWNTREND IN THE U.S. ONE ANALYST/REPORTER/ JOURNALIST FROM INSIDE
SOURCES PEGS THE SUB-PRIME DOLLAR VALUE OF THE SHILLED WORTHLESS PAPER AT $516
TRILLION (EVEN A PERCENTAGE OF SAME RENDERS THE PROBLEM UNFIXABLE-HENCE,
CULPABLE PARTIES MUST BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE AND DISGORGE THEIR ILL-GOTTEN GAINS
FROM, IE., COMMISSIONING WORTHLESS PAPER, TAKING A POINT HERE OR THERE AND
FRAUDULENTLY PASSING SAME ON, AD INFINITUM, ETC.). Time to put the wall street
among other corporate frauds in jail and require fines, penalties and
disgorgement of their ill-gotten gains. [Please note: I seldom name
analysts/reporters/journalists bearing not so glad tidings for fear they’ll be
crucified by the frauds on wall street]. (3-13-08) (DOW +35, NASDAQ +19, S&P +6) [CLOSE- OIL
$110.33 (new RECORD) / GOLD $993.80 new
intra-day high ABOVE $1,000 FOR FIRST TIME AT $1,001.50/ SILVER $20.45/
PLATINUM $2,097.50/ DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOW AGAINST EURO $1.56+, BELOW 100
YEN, ETC. (How low can you go)]. SMART MONEY WOULD SELL INTO THIS SUCKERS’
BEAR MARKET RALLY (TAKE PROFITS) WHICH IS BASED UPON B**L S**T ALONE (NOTHING
WHATSOEVER) AS STANDARD AND POORS ANALYST SAYS THE END OF WRITEDOWNS MIGHT (BUT
NOT QUITE) BE IN SIGHT (WHICH IS LIKE
THAT BROKER WHO SELLS STOCKS FOR A LIVING SAYING HE’S TRYING TO KEEP CLIENTS IN
STOCKS BECAUSE AT SOME POINT THEY’LL GO UP)…RIIIIIGHT….. WHICH IS MEANINGLESS
COMING FROM STANDARD AND POORS WHICH SHOULD BE ACCOUNTABLE/LIABLE (FOR THIS
FRAUD) ALONG WITH THE FRAUDS ON WALL STREET, ETC., FOR THE TRIPLE A RATED SECURITIES
ON THE BOOKS WHICH EVERYONE KNOWS ARE IN FACT NOT TRIPLE A (WORTHLESS JUNK
BONDS, ASSETS, ETC.) SPURRING 200+ POINT SWING TO THE UPSIDE. VAST MAJORITY OF
ECONOMISTS NOW SAY WE’RE IN RECESSION (EVEN DESPITE ELECTION YEAR GIMMICKS-AS
GOOD AS GETS). RETAIL SALES DOWN MORE THAN EXPECTED .6%, FORECLOSURES UP 60%
YEAR OVER YEAR, DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY. ONE ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED UNEMPLOYMENT/EMPLOYMENT
WEAKNESS, PREMATURE TO SAY AS DID S&P THAT WE’RE NEAR END OF WRITEDOWNS,
MAJORITY OF ECONOMISTS NOW SAY WE’RE IN RECESSION, HOUSING DOWNTURN MUCH
FURTHER TO GO, VERY DEFENSIVE AS STOCKS CONTINUE TO HIT NEW LOWS IN LARGE
NUMBERS, WORST OF HOUSING CRISIS AHEAD, AND THIS IS A BEAR MARKET IN A
RECESSION ECONOMY. ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS U.S. CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS,
LACK OF TRUST IN U.S. FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND TRIPLE A RATINGS (BONDS, ETC.,
WHICH EVERYONE KNOWS ARE NOT), BANKS’ NEED FOR RECAPITALIZATION, LOW SAVINGS (IE.,
CONSUMERS USING IE., GIFT CARDS FOR GROCERIES, ETC.), FED LOSING CREDIBILITY BY
FLIP-FLOPS/WRONG MOVES, AND SEES ONLY SHORT-COVERING RALLIES AT BEST. VENEZUELA
SHIFT TO PAYMENT IN EUROS FOR OIL OUT OF DOLLARS. YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST SAYS
WITH MONEY SUPPLY INCREASING AT EXORBITANT 27% PER ANNUM, CITING ECONOMIST
FRIEDMAN SAYS HYPER-INFLATIONARY (CONTRARY TO LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS
ECONOMISTS WHO THIS DAY SEE LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS REAL ESTATE DOWN 17.6%,
SALES DOWN 40-45%, AND MEDIAN HOME PRICES DOWN $100,000, AND BUDGET DEFICITS
ACROSS THE BOARD). 3-12-08VERY MODEST
DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY, DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY ON PANICKY FED KNEE
JERK FUNNY MONEY ACTION, ONE ANALYST/BROKER WHO SELLS STOCKS FOR A LIVING SAYS
HE’S TRYING TO KEEP CLIENTS IN STOCKS BECAUSE AT SOME POINT THEY’LL GO
UP…..RIIIIIGHT…..REFERENCES THAT THIS IS WORST R.E. DOWNTURN IN 100 YEARS AND
NO BOTTOM YET IN R.E. AND WSJ SAYS WORSE TO COME IN BAD PAPER (WRITEDOWNS,
ETC.), AN OIL ANALYST SAYS RECORD HIGH OIL PRICES ARE HEDGE AGAINST FALLING
DOLLAR WITH A LOT OF DOLLARS RELATIVE TO GOODS (AS IE., OIL, OTHER COMMODITIES,
ETC.-HYPERINFLATION) AND IF YOU HOLD DOLLARS/DOLLAR DENOMINATED
ASSETS/SECURITIES YOU LOSE VALUE AND SEES $4.00 GAS NATIONWIDE WITH RECORD
DIESEL, WHILE ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS THAT SEEING FED GO FROM LENDER OF LAST
RESORT TO LENDER (PRINTER) OF FIRST RESORT IS WORRISOME/TROUBLESOME. 3-11-08 Suckers’ bear market irrationally exuberant new
EPHEMERAL bubble rally on fed fear and
trembling panic move TO ADD $200 BILLION IN WORLDWIDE LIQUIDITY
BY TEMPORARILY REPLACING (28 DAYS) ONE TYPE OF FUNNY-MONEY (WORTHLESS SUBPRIME
COLLATERALIZED DEBT) WITH ANOTHER LONGER TERM WORTHLESS FUNNY-MONEY (U.S. DEBT
WHICH CAN’T BE PAID BACK) WHICH IS A GREAT B.S. TALKING POINT BUT JUST A DROP
IN THE BUCKET CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UNDISCLOSED WRITEDOWNS/WORTHLESS
PAPER BEING HELD(AND, CURING A BUBBLE WITH A NEW BUBBLE-I DON'T THINK SO), ONE
ANALYST POINTS TO THE HYPERINFLATIONARY EFFECTS OF TOO MUCH LIQUIDITY CHASING
TOO FEW GOODS AND MORE BAD NEWS TO COME IN TECH SECTOR AND EARNINGS ALONG WITH
MORE WRITEOFFS/WRITEDOWNS WITH WORSE TO COME/NO BOTTOM YET AND HE REMAINS A
BEAR, LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS ECONOMIST SAYS BAD BUT NOT TECHNICALLY RECESSION
BASED ON GOVERNMENT ELECTION-YEAR DATA (ONLY NUTS AND NUTS FROM THE LAND OF
FRUITS AND NUTS BELIEVE SAME) WHILE TWO OTHER ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH
STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS/HIGH INFLATION/LOWER DOLLAR AS FOREIGNERS/INVESTORS GET OUT
OF WORTHLESS DOLLAR WITH BIG TROUBLE FOR U.S. POST-ELECTION AS REALITY SETS IN,
TRADE GAP WIDENED, AND SMART MONEY WOULD SELL THIS RALLY/TAKE PROFITS. 3-10-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS
RELATIVE TO REALITY, NEW BANK DOWNGRADES, MORGAN SLASHES EARNINGS ESTIMATES FOR
S&P AND SAYS ALREADY IN RECESSION, EVEN MORE ECONOMISTS NOW SAY THE
OBVIOUS/RECESSION, RUMOR THAT BEAR STERNS WITH SUBSTANTIAL LIQUIDITY ISSUES IS
GOING UNDER, DOLLAR DOWN, EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT ON CITIBANK AND BANKOFAMERICA,
ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS (HYPERINFLATIONARY) HIGH ENERGY AND FOOD PRICES
(CONVENIENTLY LEFT OUT OF THE FED’S “TOUTED” CORE RATE) ARE SQUEEZING THE
CONSUMER (AND HENCE, CONSUMPTION/65% OF GDP) AND THAT COMMODITIES A BUBBLE AND
MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS/POSITVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO WEAKER
DOLLAR PREFERRED, AN OIL ANALYST SAYS $200 OIL POSSIBLE (REITERATING GOLDMAN)
WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING OF DOLLAR, ANOTHER ANALYST/JOURNALIST SAYS SELL DOLLAR
DENOMINATED STOCKS/SECURITIES/ASSETS WHICH HAVE MUCH FURTHER TO FALL AND
REITERATES AS DID BARRON’S THAT MORTGAGE INSURERS HAVE OVER $5 TRILLION IN
DEBT/EXPOSURE AND THAT MANY OF THE NATIONS BANKS ARE ALREADY INSOLVENT SO GET
OUT OF THE DOLLAR AND U.S. STOCKS. 3-7-08 BAD EMPLOYMENT/JOBS DATA across ALL
SECTORS AS 63,000 JOBS LOST WITH DOWNWARD REVISIONS TO DECEMBER AND JANUARY
(ACTUALLY LOST 20,000) JOBS NUMBERS, ONE ANALYST SAYS WE’RE IN A RECESSION
WHILE MORE ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH ONE STATING THAT YOU ALMOST NEVER SEE
BACK-TO-BACK MONTHLY DECLINE IN EMPLOYMENT WITHOUT RECESSION AS NOW, DOLLAR AT
NEW RECORD LOWS, CONSUMERS INCREASED BORROWING TO STAY AFLOAT, WASHINGTON
MUTUAL FURTHER DOWNGRADES, SUPPORT LEVELS BROKEN TO THE DOWNSIDE, sentiment-
85% believe things will get worse.
3-6-08 MODEST
DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE
COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING.
23% INCREASE IN FORECLOSURES IN FOURTH QUARTER NEW RECORD HIGH, DOLLAR AT NEW
RECORD LOWS, 10% OF HOMES WITH 0 OR NEGATIVE EQUITY, MORTGAGE BANKERS
ASSOCIATION SAYS HOME FORECLOSURES AT ALL-TIME HIGH AND GOING HIGHER, ONE R.E.
ANALYST SAYS ROUGH YEAR AHEAD WITH FORECLOSURES AND DEFAULTS UP, ONE ANALYST
SAYS MARKET WILL TEST NEW LOWS/SUPPORT LEVELS WITH FLIGHT TO
“QUALITY”/TREASURIES, LENDER THORNBURG DEFAULTS AND ALONG WITH WASHINGTON
MUTUAL IS DOWNGRADED, CONTINUING CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT AT HIGH LEVELS MEANS
COMPANIES SHRINKING, IGNORE KNEE-JERK ELECTION YEAR GOVERNMENT HUNKY DORY FAKE
REPORTS. 3-5-08 OIL INVENTORIES LESS THAN EXPECTED, FED BEIGE BOOK CITES
ECONOMIC WEAKNESS PARTICULARLY SINCE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR, LABOR COSTS ROSE,
RISING PRICE PRESSURES/STAGFLATION, RECESSION/BEAR MARKET, ONE ANALYST SAYS
TOUGH FIRST HALF RECOMMENDS MULTINATIONALS WITH 50% OVERSEAS EARNINGS
(FAVORABLE CURRENCY TRANSLATION) AND CONSUMER STAPLES/HEALTH RELATED/DEFENSIVE
STOCKS, AMBAC TO FLOAT STOCK TO SHORE UP BALANCE SHEET TO TUNE OF $1.5
BILLION/DILUTION AND SHARES FALL $2 TO
$8.70, OIL ANALYST CITES DECLINE IN OIL INVENTORIES/DIESEL/JET FUEL AND WEAK
DOLLAR AND TOP $108-$110 BUT $120-$130 IF VENEZUELA/COLUMBIA CONFLICT AND MORE
RECORD HIGH GAS PRICES TO COME, ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED
DECLINE IN REAL ESTATE/HOUSING WITH STARTS DOWN 15-20-40% ON WELL DESERVED
PESSIMISM/CREDIT CRUNCH. 3-4-08 Suckers’ bear market rally into the close
based on b**l s**t alone, viz., rumor/speculation about yet another bailout for
wall street/ambac/bond insurers and over 200 point swing to the upside based on
nothing whatsoever, one economist/analyst notes this is the deepest housing
decline since great depression, bernanke says another spike in foreclosures
ahead and proposes reduction of principal amounts in existing loans (sounds
like a plan…..riiiiight!), ken shreve finance editor investors business daily
says bear market 6-9 months/ don’t try to catch a falling knife as institutions
still selling/keep money safe in 3% money market for time being, one oil
analyst says oil higher before lower as expected rate cut will further weaken
dollar and drive up oil/commodities prices and problems in consumer debt in
addition to mortgages and nobody wants to hold dollars, 3-3-08 Suckers’ bear market rally into the close, yes we are in a recession
from someone who unlike the frauds on wall street has read security analysis
by graham, dodd, and cottle and understands it (warren buffet), all news
negative, ie., ism manufacturing index down to 48.3 (contraction), car sales
down at gm (-12%) and ford (-7%), construction spending down most in 14 years,
oil analysts point to the new highs while economist/analyst says dollar has
fallen through all support levels meaning more bottoms to come, INFLATION
OUTPACING CONSUMER SPENDING (EVEN WITH SPENDING NUMBER HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
WHICH PROBABLY MEANS REALITY WAS NEGATIVE), CONSUMER CONFIDENCE/SENTIMENT DOWN
SHARPLY, CHICAGO MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN INDICATING CONTRACTION, $5.29 BILLION
LOSS FOR AIG ON WRITEOFFS, INTRA DAY HIGH FOR OIL OVER $103, INFLATION/WEAK
DOLLAR/ECONOMIC WEAKNESS=STAGFLATION, FOURTH MONTHLY DECLINE IN A ROW FOR STOCK
MARKET, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST IF NOT THEN ALMOST IN RECESSION WITH WORSE
INFLATION NEWS AND INFLATION ADJUSTED INCOME/SPENDING FLAT, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION AND CITES NEGATIVE SAVINGS RATE AND FURTHER
ECONOMIC WEAKNESS, ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED ECONOMIC WEAKNESS WITH FURTHER DOLLAR
DECLINE SO BULLISH ON METALS AND BEARISH ON STOCKS, AND YET ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS INFLATION/RECESSION BUT NOT DEPRESSION…..RIIIIIGHT, GDP
GROWTH REPORTED MUCH LESS THAN EXPECTED (BUT CLOSER TO REALITY) AT
MINISCULE .6%, UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS JUMP
19,000 TO 373,000 AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE POST KATRINA, BERNANKE SAYS CONSUMER
WORSE OFF THAN JUST AFTER 911(?) AND THAT SOME BANKS COULD (WILL) FAIL AND THAT
STAGFLATION WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS THE 70’S, FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC SHOW
MASSIVE LOSSES, ONE ANALYST 50 YEARS IN THE BUSINESS SEES RECESSION AND SAYS
FINANCIALS HAVE BECOME IMPENETRABLE IN TERMS OF ANALYSIS/LOSSES, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS WE’RE NOWHERE NEAR IMPROVEMENT IN R.E./HOUSING MARKET,
YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION WITH HIGHER INFLATION LOWER GROWTH
(STAGFLATION) AND THAT FED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN WRONG AND ONLY RECESSION TO
BRING DOWN INFLATION, new record LOW
FOR DOLLAR AGAINST EURO AND SWISS FRANC (AND EVEN WORTH LESS THAN THE LOWLY
CANADIAN LOONEY, ETC.) WHICH ALONG WITH DEFICIT SPENDING IS HYPERINFLATIONARY
AS OIL SEES NEW INTRADAY HIGH OF $102.64, SALES/ORDERS OF DURABLE GOODS DOWN MORE
THAN EXPECTED 5.3%, BERNANKE’S NEGATIVE COMMENTS ON GREENSPAN RECESSION
PROMISES RATE CUTS FOR NEW BUBBLE WHICH RALLIES STOCKS, ONE ANALYST SAYS BANKS
AS THEIR OWN INSURERS INCREASES RISK, ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DEFICIT
SPENDING INCREASES INFLATIONARY PROBLEMS/RISK, FORECLOSURES/BANK REPO’S UP 90%
YEAR OVER YEAR, REGULATORS PREDICT OVER 100 BANK FAILURES, FORECLOSURES UP 57%
IN JANUARY, WHOLESALE INFLATION UP MUCH HIGHER THAN EXPECTED 7.5% (CORE RATE
4+%), 9% DROP IN HOME VALUES/PRICES, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOWN TO 17 YEAR LOW,
ELECTION YEAR/PROTECT INCOMPETENT INCUMBENT GOV’T PRINTING WORTHLESS DOLLARS
LIKE MAD WITH EXCESS LIQUIDITY CHASING TOO FEW GOODS (IE., FOOD UP 6%, ETC.)
WHICH IS HYPER-INFLATIONARY, ECONOMIST/ANALYST DR. KELLNER SAYS EASIER
MONEY/FISCAL PACKAGE WON’T REFLATE HOUSING MARKET (RECESSION), ANOTHER ANALYST
SAYS IN BEAR MARKET/RECESSION RECOMMENDS DEFENSIVE/PREFERRED STOCKS/BONDS/CASH,
DR. SHILLER- CASE-SHILLER INDEX- HOME VALUES CONTINUED DECLINE AND IN OR ABOUT
TO ENTER RECESSION (that’s already here), Stiglitz
Blames Greenspan For Recession, IBM ON $15 BILLION BUYBACK AND JAWBONING
AND SIGNIFICANT OVERSEAS SALES (AND POSITIVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO THE
WORTHLESS DOLLAR) RALLIES MARKET (WHAT BULL S**T), SHARPLY LOWER AND MORE WORTHLESS DOLLAR/HIGH OIL PRICE RALLY
CREATES YET ANOTHER B.S. SWING OF OVER 200 POINTS TO THE UPSIDE, FOOD PRICES UP
6% ON ETHANOL CROWD-OUT, HOME SALES
DOWN 5.5% / MEDIAN SALES PRICE DOWN 4.6%, ONE R.E. EXPERT SAYS WITH SALES
FALLING AND FORECLOSURES RISING WORSE YET TO COME, LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
FELL FOR FOURTH MONTH IN A ROW (-.1%), PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX
UNEXPECTEDLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER (The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index fell
to a -24, indicating a sharp contraction in the region's manufacturing
activity. Economists had anticipated a reading of -10, a less pronounced
contraction. Last month the reading came in at -20.9.), ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS
SIGNIFICANT INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT-STAGFLATION-AHEAD ALONG WITH CONTINUED
DEFLATION OF HOUSING BUBBLE WITH NATIONWIDE AVERAGE PRICE DECLINE OF 8-10% AND
ANOTHER DECLINE OF 15-20% TO COME. SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY BASED UPON B**L S**T ALONE (NOTHING
WHATSOEVER) TO KEEP
THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING. (DOW +35, NASDAQ +19, S&P +6) [CLOSE- OIL
$110.33 (new RECORD) / GOLD $993.80 new
intra-day high ABOVE $1,000 FOR FIRST TIME AT $1,001.50/ SILVER $20.45/
PLATINUM $2,097.50/ DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOW AGAINST EURO $1.56+, BELOW 100
YEN, ETC. (How low can you go)]. SMART MONEY WOULD SELL INTO THIS SUCKERS’
BEAR MARKET RALLY (TAKE PROFITS). REALITY: THIS IS A BEAR
MARKET IN A SECULAR BEAR MARKET IN A RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A SECULAR (AND QUITE
PERMANENT-THEY’VE MADE ALL THE WRONG CHOICES) ECONOMIC DOWNTREND IN THE U.S. ONE
ANALYST/REPORTER/ JOURNALIST FROM INSIDE SOURCES PEGS THE SUB-PRIME DOLLAR
VALUE OF THE SHILLED WORTHLESS PAPER AT $516 TRILLION (EVEN A PERCENTAGE OF
SAME RENDERS THE PROBLEM UNFIXABLE-HENCE, CULPABLE PARTIES MUST BE HELD
ACCOUNTABLE AND DISGORGE THEIR ILL-GOTTEN GAINS FROM, IE., COMMISSIONING
WORTHLESS PAPER, TAKING A POINT HERE OR THERE AND FRAUDULENTLY PASSING SAME ON,
AD INFINITUM, ETC.). Time to put the wall street among other corporate frauds
in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their ill-gotten
gains. [Please
note: I seldom name analysts/reporters/journalists bearing not so glad tidings
for fear they’ll be crucified by the frauds on wall street]. (3-12-08) (DOW -47, NASDAQ -12, S&P -12) [CLOSE- OIL
$109.92 (new intra-day high $110.20) /
GOLD $980.50 / SILVER $20/ PLATINUM $2,070/ DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOW AGAINST
EURO $1.55+ (How low can you go)]. VERY MODEST DROP IN STOCKS
RELATIVE TO REALITY, DOLLAR DOWN SHARPLY ON PANICKY FED KNEE JERK FUNNY MONEY
ACTION, ONE ANALYST/BROKER WHO SELLS STOCKS FOR A LIVING SAYS HE’S TRYING TO
KEEP CLIENTS IN STOCKS BECAUSE AT SOME POINT THEY’LL GO UP…..RIIIIIGHT…..REFERENCES
THAT THIS IS WORST R.E. DOWNTURN IN 100 YEARS AND NO BOTTOM YET IN R.E. AND WSJ
SAYS WORSE TO COME IN BAD PAPER (WRITEDOWNS, ETC.), AN OIL ANALYST SAYS RECORD
HIGH OIL PRICES ARE HEDGE AGAINST FALLING DOLLAR WITH A LOT OF DOLLARS RELATIVE
TO GOODS (AS IE., OIL, OTHER COMMODITIES, ETC.-HYPERINFLATION) AND IF YOU HOLD
DOLLARS/DOLLAR DENOMINATED ASSETS/SECURITIES YOU LOSE VALUE AND SEES $4.00 GAS
NATIONWIDE WITH RECORD DIESEL, WHILE ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS THAT SEEING FED GO
FROM LENDER OF LAST RESORT TO LENDER (PRINTER) OF FIRST RESORT IS
WORRISOME/TROUBLESOME. 3-11-08 Suckers’ bear market irrationally
exuberant new EPHEMERAL bubble rally on
fed fear and trembling panic move TO ADD $200 BILLION IN
WORLDWIDE LIQUIDITY BY TEMPORARILY REPLACING (28 DAYS) ONE TYPE OF FUNNY-MONEY
(WORTHLESS SUBPRIME COLLATERALIZED DEBT) WITH ANOTHER LONGER TERM WORTHLESS
FUNNY-MONEY (U.S. DEBT WHICH CAN’T BE PAID BACK) WHICH IS A GREAT B.S. TALKING
POINT BUT JUST A DROP IN THE BUCKET CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
UNDISCLOSED WRITEDOWNS/WORTHLESS PAPER BEING HELD(AND, CURING A BUBBLE WITH A
NEW BUBBLE-I DON'T THINK SO), ONE ANALYST POINTS TO THE HYPERINFLATIONARY
EFFECTS OF TOO MUCH LIQUIDITY CHASING TOO FEW GOODS AND MORE BAD NEWS TO COME
IN TECH SECTOR AND EARNINGS ALONG WITH MORE WRITEOFFS/WRITEDOWNS WITH WORSE TO
COME/NO BOTTOM YET AND HE REMAINS A BEAR, LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS ECONOMIST
SAYS BAD BUT NOT TECHNICALLY RECESSION BASED ON GOVERNMENT ELECTION-YEAR DATA
(ONLY NUTS AND NUTS FROM THE LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS BELIEVE SAME) WHILE TWO
OTHER ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS/HIGH INFLATION/LOWER
DOLLAR AS FOREIGNERS/INVESTORS GET OUT OF WORTHLESS DOLLAR WITH BIG TROUBLE FOR
U.S. POST-ELECTION AS REALITY SETS IN, TRADE GAP WIDENED, AND SMART MONEY WOULD
SELL THIS RALLY/TAKE PROFITS. 3-10-08
MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY, NEW BANK DOWNGRADES,
MORGAN SLASHES EARNINGS ESTIMATES FOR S&P AND SAYS ALREADY IN RECESSION,
EVEN MORE ECONOMISTS NOW SAY THE OBVIOUS/RECESSION, RUMOR THAT BEAR STERNS WITH
SUBSTANTIAL LIQUIDITY ISSUES IS GOING UNDER, DOLLAR DOWN, EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT
ON CITIBANK AND BANKOFAMERICA, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS (HYPERINFLATIONARY)
HIGH ENERGY AND FOOD PRICES (CONVENIENTLY LEFT OUT OF THE FED’S “TOUTED” CORE
RATE) ARE SQUEEZING THE CONSUMER (AND HENCE, CONSUMPTION/65% OF GDP) AND THAT
COMMODITIES A BUBBLE AND MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS/POSITVE CURRENCY
TRANSLATION TO WEAKER DOLLAR PREFERRED, AN OIL ANALYST SAYS $200 OIL POSSIBLE
(REITERATING GOLDMAN) WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING OF DOLLAR, ANOTHER
ANALYST/JOURNALIST SAYS SELL DOLLAR DENOMINATED STOCKS/SECURITIES/ASSETS WHICH
HAVE MUCH FURTHER TO FALL AND REITERATES AS DID BARRON’S THAT MORTGAGE INSURERS
HAVE OVER $5 TRILLION IN DEBT/EXPOSURE AND THAT MANY OF THE NATIONS BANKS ARE
ALREADY INSOLVENT SO GET OUT OF THE DOLLAR AND U.S. STOCKS. 3-7-08
BAD EMPLOYMENT/JOBS DATA across ALL SECTORS AS 63,000 JOBS LOST WITH DOWNWARD
REVISIONS TO DECEMBER AND JANUARY (ACTUALLY LOST 20,000) JOBS NUMBERS, ONE
ANALYST SAYS WE’RE IN A RECESSION WHILE MORE ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH ONE
STATING THAT YOU ALMOST NEVER SEE BACK-TO-BACK MONTHLY DECLINE IN EMPLOYMENT
WITHOUT RECESSION AS NOW, DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOWS, CONSUMERS INCREASED
BORROWING TO STAY AFLOAT, WASHINGTON MUTUAL FURTHER DOWNGRADES, SUPPORT LEVELS
BROKEN TO THE DOWNSIDE, sentiment- 85% believe things will get worse. 3-6-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY TO KEEP THE
SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING. 23% INCREASE IN FORECLOSURES IN FOURTH
QUARTER NEW RECORD HIGH, DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOWS, 10% OF HOMES WITH 0 OR
NEGATIVE EQUITY, MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION SAYS HOME FORECLOSURES AT
ALL-TIME HIGH AND GOING HIGHER, ONE R.E. ANALYST SAYS ROUGH YEAR AHEAD WITH
FORECLOSURES AND DEFAULTS UP, ONE ANALYST SAYS MARKET WILL TEST NEW
LOWS/SUPPORT LEVELS WITH FLIGHT TO “QUALITY”/TREASURIES, LENDER THORNBURG
DEFAULTS AND ALONG WITH WASHINGTON MUTUAL IS DOWNGRADED, CONTINUING CLAIMS FOR
UNEMPLOYMENT AT HIGH LEVELS MEANS COMPANIES SHRINKING, IGNORE KNEE-JERK
ELECTION YEAR GOVERNMENT HUNKY DORY FAKE REPORTS. 3-5-08 OIL INVENTORIES
LESS THAN EXPECTED, FED BEIGE BOOK CITES ECONOMIC WEAKNESS PARTICULARLY SINCE
BEGINNING OF THE YEAR, LABOR COSTS ROSE, RISING PRICE PRESSURES/STAGFLATION,
RECESSION/BEAR MARKET, ONE ANALYST SAYS TOUGH FIRST HALF RECOMMENDS
MULTINATIONALS WITH 50% OVERSEAS EARNINGS (FAVORABLE CURRENCY TRANSLATION) AND
CONSUMER STAPLES/HEALTH RELATED/DEFENSIVE STOCKS, AMBAC TO FLOAT STOCK TO SHORE
UP BALANCE SHEET TO TUNE OF $1.5 BILLION/DILUTION AND SHARES FALL $2 TO $8.70, OIL ANALYST CITES DECLINE IN OIL INVENTORIES/DIESEL/JET
FUEL AND WEAK DOLLAR AND TOP $108-$110 BUT $120-$130 IF VENEZUELA/COLUMBIA
CONFLICT AND MORE RECORD HIGH GAS PRICES TO COME, ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS CONTINUED DECLINE IN REAL ESTATE/HOUSING WITH STARTS DOWN 15-20-40% ON
WELL DESERVED PESSIMISM/CREDIT CRUNCH. 3-4-08
Suckers’ bear market rally into the
close based on b**l s**t alone, viz., rumor/speculation about yet another
bailout for wall street/ambac/bond insurers and over 200 point swing to the
upside based on nothing whatsoever, one economist/analyst notes this is the
deepest housing decline since great depression, bernanke says another spike in
foreclosures ahead and proposes reduction of principal amounts in existing
loans (sounds like a plan…..riiiiight!), ken shreve finance editor investors
business daily says bear market 6-9 months/ don’t try to catch a falling knife
as institutions still selling/keep money safe in 3% money market for time
being, one oil analyst says oil higher before lower as expected rate cut will
further weaken dollar and drive up oil/commodities prices and problems in
consumer debt in addition to mortgages and nobody wants to hold dollars, 3-3-08 Suckers’ bear market rally into the close, yes we are in a recession
from someone who unlike the frauds on wall street has read security analysis
by graham, dodd, and cottle and understands it (warren buffet), all news
negative, ie., ism manufacturing index down to 48.3 (contraction), car sales
down at gm (-12%) and ford (-7%), construction spending down most in 14 years,
oil analysts point to the new highs while economist/analyst says dollar has
fallen through all support levels meaning more bottoms to come, INFLATION
OUTPACING CONSUMER SPENDING (EVEN WITH SPENDING NUMBER HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
WHICH PROBABLY MEANS REALITY WAS NEGATIVE), CONSUMER CONFIDENCE/SENTIMENT DOWN
SHARPLY, CHICAGO MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN INDICATING CONTRACTION, $5.29 BILLION
LOSS FOR AIG ON WRITEOFFS, INTRA DAY HIGH FOR OIL OVER $103, INFLATION/WEAK
DOLLAR/ECONOMIC WEAKNESS=STAGFLATION, FOURTH MONTHLY DECLINE IN A ROW FOR STOCK
MARKET, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST IF NOT THEN ALMOST IN RECESSION WITH WORSE
INFLATION NEWS AND INFLATION ADJUSTED INCOME/SPENDING FLAT, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION AND CITES NEGATIVE SAVINGS RATE AND FURTHER ECONOMIC
WEAKNESS, ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED ECONOMIC WEAKNESS WITH FURTHER DOLLAR DECLINE
SO BULLISH ON METALS AND BEARISH ON STOCKS, AND YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS INFLATION/RECESSION BUT NOT DEPRESSION…..RIIIIIGHT, GDP GROWTH
REPORTED MUCH LESS THAN EXPECTED (BUT CLOSER TO REALITY) AT MINISCULE .6%, UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS JUMP 19,000 TO
373,000 AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE POST KATRINA, BERNANKE SAYS CONSUMER WORSE OFF
THAN JUST AFTER 911(?) AND THAT SOME BANKS COULD (WILL) FAIL AND THAT
STAGFLATION WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS THE 70’S, FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC SHOW
MASSIVE LOSSES, ONE ANALYST 50 YEARS IN THE BUSINESS SEES RECESSION AND SAYS
FINANCIALS HAVE BECOME IMPENETRABLE IN TERMS OF ANALYSIS/LOSSES, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS WE’RE NOWHERE NEAR IMPROVEMENT IN R.E./HOUSING MARKET,
YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION WITH HIGHER INFLATION LOWER GROWTH
(STAGFLATION) AND THAT FED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN WRONG AND ONLY RECESSION TO
BRING DOWN INFLATION, new record LOW
FOR DOLLAR AGAINST EURO AND SWISS FRANC (AND EVEN WORTH LESS THAN THE LOWLY
CANADIAN LOONEY, ETC.) WHICH ALONG WITH DEFICIT SPENDING IS HYPERINFLATIONARY
AS OIL SEES NEW INTRADAY HIGH OF $102.64, SALES/ORDERS OF DURABLE GOODS DOWN
MORE THAN EXPECTED 5.3%, BERNANKE’S NEGATIVE COMMENTS ON GREENSPAN RECESSION
PROMISES RATE CUTS FOR NEW BUBBLE WHICH RALLIES STOCKS, ONE ANALYST SAYS BANKS
AS THEIR OWN INSURERS INCREASES RISK, ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DEFICIT
SPENDING INCREASES INFLATIONARY PROBLEMS/RISK, FORECLOSURES/BANK REPO’S UP 90%
YEAR OVER YEAR, REGULATORS PREDICT OVER 100 BANK FAILURES, FORECLOSURES UP 57%
IN JANUARY, WHOLESALE INFLATION UP MUCH HIGHER THAN EXPECTED 7.5% (CORE RATE
4+%), 9% DROP IN HOME VALUES/PRICES, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOWN TO 17 YEAR LOW,
ELECTION YEAR/PROTECT INCOMPETENT INCUMBENT GOV’T PRINTING WORTHLESS DOLLARS
LIKE MAD WITH EXCESS LIQUIDITY CHASING TOO FEW GOODS (IE., FOOD UP 6%, ETC.)
WHICH IS HYPER-INFLATIONARY, ECONOMIST/ANALYST DR. KELLNER SAYS EASIER
MONEY/FISCAL PACKAGE WON’T REFLATE HOUSING MARKET (RECESSION), ANOTHER ANALYST
SAYS IN BEAR MARKET/RECESSION RECOMMENDS DEFENSIVE/PREFERRED STOCKS/BONDS/CASH,
DR. SHILLER- CASE-SHILLER INDEX- HOME VALUES CONTINUED DECLINE AND IN OR ABOUT
TO ENTER RECESSION (that’s already here), Stiglitz
Blames Greenspan For Recession, IBM ON $15 BILLION BUYBACK AND JAWBONING
AND SIGNIFICANT OVERSEAS SALES (AND POSITIVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO THE
WORTHLESS DOLLAR) RALLIES MARKET (WHAT BULL S**T), SHARPLY LOWER AND MORE WORTHLESS DOLLAR/HIGH OIL PRICE RALLY
CREATES YET ANOTHER B.S. SWING OF OVER 200 POINTS TO THE UPSIDE, FOOD PRICES UP
6% ON ETHANOL CROWD-OUT, HOME SALES
DOWN 5.5% / MEDIAN SALES PRICE DOWN 4.6%, ONE R.E. EXPERT SAYS WITH SALES FALLING
AND FORECLOSURES RISING WORSE YET TO COME, LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS FELL FOR
FOURTH MONTH IN A ROW (-.1%), PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX UNEXPECTEDLY
AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER (The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index fell to a -24,
indicating a sharp contraction in the region's manufacturing activity.
Economists had anticipated a reading of -10, a less pronounced contraction.
Last month the reading came in at -20.9.), ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS
SIGNIFICANT INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT-STAGFLATION-AHEAD ALONG WITH CONTINUED
DEFLATION OF HOUSING BUBBLE WITH NATIONWIDE AVERAGE PRICE DECLINE OF 8-10% AND
ANOTHER DECLINE OF 15-20% TO COME. MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY TO KEEP THE SUCKERS
SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING. (DOW -47, NASDAQ -12, S&P -12) [CLOSE-
OIL $109.92 (new intra-day high $110.20)
/ GOLD $980.50 / SILVER $20/ PLATINUM $2,070/ DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOW AGAINST
EURO $1.55+ (How low can you go)]. REALITY: THIS IS A BEAR MARKET IN A SECULAR
BEAR MARKET IN A RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A SECULAR (AND QUITE PERMANENT-THEY’VE
MADE ALL THE WRONG CHOICES) ECONOMIC DOWNTREND IN THE U.S. ONE
ANALYST/REPORTER/ JOURNALIST FROM INSIDE SOURCES PEGS THE SUB-PRIME DOLLAR
VALUE OF THE SHILLED WORTHLESS PAPER AT $516 TRILLION (EVEN A PERCENTAGE OF
SAME RENDERS THE PROBLEM UNFIXABLE-HENCE, CULPABLE PARTIES MUST BE HELD
ACCOUNTABLE AND DISGORGE THEIR ILL-GOTTEN GAINS FROM, IE., COMMISSIONING
WORTHLESS PAPER, TAKING A POINT HERE OR THERE AND FRAUDULENTLY PASSING SAME ON,
AD INFINITUM, ETC.). Time to put the wall street among other corporate frauds
in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their ill-gotten
gains. [Please
note: I seldom name analysts/reporters/journalists bearing not so glad tidings
for fear they’ll be crucified by the frauds on wall street]. (3-11-08) (DOW +417, NASDAQ +86, S&P +47) [CLOSE-
OIL $108.75 (new intra-day high $109.72)
/ GOLD $973 / SILVER $19.65/ PLATINUM $2,053/ DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOW AGAINST
EURO $1.54+ (near 1.55-How low can you go)]. Suckers’ bear market
irrationally exuberant new EPHEMERAL bubble rally on fed fear and trembling panic move TO ADD
$200 BILLION IN WORLDWIDE LIQUIDITY BY TEMPORARILY REPLACING (28 DAYS) ONE TYPE
OF FUNNY-MONEY (WORTHLESS SUBPRIME COLLATERALIZED DEBT) WITH ANOTHER LONGER
TERM WORTHLESS FUNNY-MONEY (U.S. DEBT WHICH CAN’T BE PAID BACK) WHICH IS A
GREAT B.S. TALKING POINT BUT JUST A DROP IN THE BUCKET CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE UNDISCLOSED WRITEDOWNS/WORTHLESS PAPER BEING HELD (AND, CURING A BUBBLE WITH A NEW BUBBLE-I DON'T THINK SO), ONE ANALYST POINTS TO
THE HYPERINFLATIONARY EFFECTS OF TOO MUCH LIQUIDITY CHASING TOO FEW GOODS AND
MORE BAD NEWS TO COME IN TECH SECTOR AND EARNINGS ALONG WITH MORE
WRITEOFFS/WRITEDOWNS WITH WORSE TO COME/NO BOTTOM YET AND HE REMAINS A BEAR, LAND
OF FRUITS AND NUTS ECONOMIST SAYS BAD BUT NOT TECHNICALLY RECESSION BASED ON
GOVERNMENT ELECTION-YEAR DATA (ONLY NUTS AND NUTS FROM THE LAND OF FRUITS AND
NUTS BELIEVE SAME) WHILE TWO OTHER ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH STRUCTURAL
PROBLEMS/HIGH INFLATION/LOWER DOLLAR AS FOREIGNERS/INVESTORS GET OUT OF
WORTHLESS DOLLAR WITH BIG TROUBLE FOR U.S. POST-ELECTION AS REALITY SETS IN,
TRADE GAP WIDENED, AND SMART MONEY WOULD SELL THIS RALLY/TAKE PROFITS. 3-10-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS
RELATIVE TO REALITY, NEW BANK DOWNGRADES, MORGAN SLASHES EARNINGS ESTIMATES FOR
S&P AND SAYS ALREADY IN RECESSION, EVEN MORE ECONOMISTS NOW SAY THE
OBVIOUS/RECESSION, RUMOR THAT BEAR STERNS WITH SUBSTANTIAL LIQUIDITY ISSUES IS
GOING UNDER, DOLLAR DOWN, EARNINGS ESTIMATES CUT ON CITIBANK AND BANKOFAMERICA,
ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS (HYPERINFLATIONARY) HIGH ENERGY AND FOOD PRICES
(CONVENIENTLY LEFT OUT OF THE FED’S “TOUTED” CORE RATE) ARE SQUEEZING THE
CONSUMER (AND HENCE, CONSUMPTION/65% OF GDP) AND THAT COMMODITIES A BUBBLE AND
MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS EARNINGS/POSITVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO WEAKER
DOLLAR PREFERRED, AN OIL ANALYST SAYS $200 OIL POSSIBLE (REITERATING GOLDMAN)
WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING OF DOLLAR, ANOTHER ANALYST/JOURNALIST SAYS SELL DOLLAR
DENOMINATED STOCKS/SECURITIES/ASSETS WHICH HAVE MUCH FURTHER TO FALL AND
REITERATES AS DID BARRON’S THAT MORTGAGE INSURERS HAVE OVER $5 TRILLION IN
DEBT/EXPOSURE AND THAT MANY OF THE NATIONS BANKS ARE ALREADY INSOLVENT SO GET
OUT OF THE DOLLAR AND U.S. STOCKS. 3-7-08 BAD EMPLOYMENT/JOBS DATA across ALL
SECTORS AS 63,000 JOBS LOST WITH DOWNWARD REVISIONS TO DECEMBER AND JANUARY
(ACTUALLY LOST 20,000) JOBS NUMBERS, ONE ANALYST SAYS WE’RE IN A RECESSION
WHILE MORE ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH ONE STATING THAT YOU ALMOST NEVER SEE
BACK-TO-BACK MONTHLY DECLINE IN EMPLOYMENT WITHOUT RECESSION AS NOW, DOLLAR AT
NEW RECORD LOWS, CONSUMERS INCREASED BORROWING TO STAY AFLOAT, WASHINGTON
MUTUAL FURTHER DOWNGRADES, SUPPORT LEVELS BROKEN TO THE DOWNSIDE, sentiment-
85% believe things will get worse.
3-6-08 MODEST
DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE
COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING.
23% INCREASE IN FORECLOSURES IN FOURTH QUARTER NEW RECORD HIGH, DOLLAR AT NEW
RECORD LOWS, 10% OF HOMES WITH 0 OR NEGATIVE EQUITY, MORTGAGE BANKERS
ASSOCIATION SAYS HOME FORECLOSURES AT ALL-TIME HIGH AND GOING HIGHER, ONE R.E.
ANALYST SAYS ROUGH YEAR AHEAD WITH FORECLOSURES AND DEFAULTS UP, ONE ANALYST
SAYS MARKET WILL TEST NEW LOWS/SUPPORT LEVELS WITH FLIGHT TO
“QUALITY”/TREASURIES, LENDER THORNBURG DEFAULTS AND ALONG WITH WASHINGTON
MUTUAL IS DOWNGRADED, CONTINUING CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT AT HIGH LEVELS MEANS
COMPANIES SHRINKING, IGNORE KNEE-JERK ELECTION YEAR GOVERNMENT HUNKY DORY FAKE
REPORTS. 3-5-08 OIL INVENTORIES LESS THAN EXPECTED, FED BEIGE BOOK CITES
ECONOMIC WEAKNESS PARTICULARLY SINCE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR, LABOR COSTS ROSE,
RISING PRICE PRESSURES/STAGFLATION, RECESSION/BEAR MARKET, ONE ANALYST SAYS
TOUGH FIRST HALF RECOMMENDS MULTINATIONALS WITH 50% OVERSEAS EARNINGS
(FAVORABLE CURRENCY TRANSLATION) AND CONSUMER STAPLES/HEALTH RELATED/DEFENSIVE
STOCKS, AMBAC TO FLOAT STOCK TO SHORE UP BALANCE SHEET TO TUNE OF $1.5
BILLION/DILUTION AND SHARES FALL $2 TO
$8.70, OIL ANALYST CITES DECLINE IN OIL INVENTORIES/DIESEL/JET FUEL AND WEAK
DOLLAR AND TOP $108-$110 BUT $120-$130 IF VENEZUELA/COLUMBIA CONFLICT AND MORE
RECORD HIGH GAS PRICES TO COME, ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED
DECLINE IN REAL ESTATE/HOUSING WITH STARTS DOWN 15-20-40% ON WELL DESERVED
PESSIMISM/CREDIT CRUNCH. 3-4-08 Suckers’ bear market rally into the close
based on b**l s**t alone, viz., rumor/speculation about yet another bailout for
wall street/ambac/bond insurers and over 200 point swing to the upside based on
nothing whatsoever, one economist/analyst notes this is the deepest housing
decline since great depression, bernanke says another spike in foreclosures
ahead and proposes reduction of principal amounts in existing loans (sounds
like a plan…..riiiiight!), ken shreve finance editor investors business daily
says bear market 6-9 months/ don’t try to catch a falling knife as institutions
still selling/keep money safe in 3% money market for time being, one oil
analyst says oil higher before lower as expected rate cut will further weaken
dollar and drive up oil/commodities prices and problems in consumer debt in
addition to mortgages and nobody wants to hold dollars, 3-3-08 Suckers’ bear market rally into the close, yes we are in a recession
from someone who unlike the frauds on wall street has read security analysis
by graham, dodd, and cottle and understands it (warren buffet), all news
negative, ie., ism manufacturing index down to 48.3 (contraction), car sales
down at gm (-12%) and ford (-7%), construction spending down most in 14 years,
oil analysts point to the new highs while economist/analyst says dollar has
fallen through all support levels meaning more bottoms to come, INFLATION
OUTPACING CONSUMER SPENDING (EVEN WITH SPENDING NUMBER HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
WHICH PROBABLY MEANS REALITY WAS NEGATIVE), CONSUMER CONFIDENCE/SENTIMENT DOWN
SHARPLY, CHICAGO MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN INDICATING CONTRACTION, $5.29 BILLION
LOSS FOR AIG ON WRITEOFFS, INTRA DAY HIGH FOR OIL OVER $103, INFLATION/WEAK
DOLLAR/ECONOMIC WEAKNESS=STAGFLATION, FOURTH MONTHLY DECLINE IN A ROW FOR STOCK
MARKET, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST IF NOT THEN ALMOST IN RECESSION WITH WORSE
INFLATION NEWS AND INFLATION ADJUSTED INCOME/SPENDING FLAT, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION AND CITES NEGATIVE SAVINGS RATE AND FURTHER
ECONOMIC WEAKNESS, ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED ECONOMIC WEAKNESS WITH FURTHER DOLLAR
DECLINE SO BULLISH ON METALS AND BEARISH ON STOCKS, AND YET ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS INFLATION/RECESSION BUT NOT DEPRESSION…..RIIIIIGHT, GDP
GROWTH REPORTED MUCH LESS THAN EXPECTED (BUT CLOSER TO REALITY) AT
MINISCULE .6%, UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS JUMP
19,000 TO 373,000 AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE POST KATRINA, BERNANKE SAYS CONSUMER
WORSE OFF THAN JUST AFTER 911(?) AND THAT SOME BANKS COULD (WILL) FAIL AND THAT
STAGFLATION WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS THE 70’S, FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC SHOW
MASSIVE LOSSES, ONE ANALYST 50 YEARS IN THE BUSINESS SEES RECESSION AND SAYS
FINANCIALS HAVE BECOME IMPENETRABLE IN TERMS OF ANALYSIS/LOSSES, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS WE’RE NOWHERE NEAR IMPROVEMENT IN R.E./HOUSING MARKET,
YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION WITH HIGHER INFLATION LOWER GROWTH
(STAGFLATION) AND THAT FED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN WRONG AND ONLY RECESSION TO
BRING DOWN INFLATION, new record LOW FOR
DOLLAR AGAINST EURO AND SWISS FRANC (AND EVEN WORTH LESS THAN THE LOWLY
CANADIAN LOONEY, ETC.) WHICH ALONG WITH DEFICIT SPENDING IS HYPERINFLATIONARY
AS OIL SEES NEW INTRADAY HIGH OF $102.64, SALES/ORDERS OF DURABLE GOODS DOWN
MORE THAN EXPECTED 5.3%, BERNANKE’S NEGATIVE COMMENTS ON GREENSPAN RECESSION
PROMISES RATE CUTS FOR NEW BUBBLE WHICH RALLIES STOCKS, ONE ANALYST SAYS BANKS
AS THEIR OWN INSURERS INCREASES RISK, ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DEFICIT
SPENDING INCREASES INFLATIONARY PROBLEMS/RISK, FORECLOSURES/BANK REPO’S UP 90%
YEAR OVER YEAR, REGULATORS PREDICT OVER 100 BANK FAILURES, FORECLOSURES UP 57%
IN JANUARY, WHOLESALE INFLATION UP MUCH HIGHER THAN EXPECTED 7.5% (CORE RATE
4+%), 9% DROP IN HOME VALUES/PRICES, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOWN TO 17 YEAR LOW,
ELECTION YEAR/PROTECT INCOMPETENT INCUMBENT GOV’T PRINTING WORTHLESS DOLLARS
LIKE MAD WITH EXCESS LIQUIDITY CHASING TOO FEW GOODS (IE., FOOD UP 6%, ETC.)
WHICH IS HYPER-INFLATIONARY, ECONOMIST/ANALYST DR. KELLNER SAYS EASIER
MONEY/FISCAL PACKAGE WON’T REFLATE HOUSING MARKET (RECESSION), ANOTHER ANALYST
SAYS IN BEAR MARKET/RECESSION RECOMMENDS DEFENSIVE/PREFERRED STOCKS/BONDS/CASH,
DR. SHILLER- CASE-SHILLER INDEX- HOME VALUES CONTINUED DECLINE AND IN OR ABOUT
TO ENTER RECESSION (that’s already here), Stiglitz
Blames Greenspan For Recession, IBM ON $15 BILLION BUYBACK AND JAWBONING
AND SIGNIFICANT OVERSEAS SALES (AND POSITIVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO THE
WORTHLESS DOLLAR) RALLIES MARKET (WHAT BULL S**T), SHARPLY LOWER AND MORE WORTHLESS DOLLAR/HIGH OIL PRICE RALLY
CREATES YET ANOTHER B.S. SWING OF OVER 200 POINTS TO THE UPSIDE, FOOD PRICES UP
6% ON ETHANOL CROWD-OUT, HOME SALES
DOWN 5.5% / MEDIAN SALES PRICE DOWN 4.6%, ONE R.E. EXPERT SAYS WITH SALES
FALLING AND FORECLOSURES RISING WORSE YET TO COME, LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
FELL FOR FOURTH MONTH IN A ROW (-.1%), PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX
UNEXPECTEDLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER (The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index fell
to a -24, indicating a sharp contraction in the region's manufacturing
activity. Economists had anticipated a reading of -10, a less pronounced
contraction. Last month the reading came in at -20.9.), ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS SIGNIFICANT INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT-STAGFLATION-AHEAD ALONG WITH
CONTINUED DEFLATION OF HOUSING BUBBLE WITH NATIONWIDE AVERAGE PRICE DECLINE OF
8-10% AND ANOTHER DECLINE OF 15-20% TO COME. Suckers’ bear market
irrationally exuberant bubble rally on
fed fear and trembling panic move TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION
TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING. (DOW +417, NASDAQ
+86, S&P +47) [CLOSE- OIL $108.75
(new intra-day high $109.72) / GOLD $973 / SILVER $19.65/ PLATINUM
$2,053/ DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOW AGAINST EURO $1.54+ (near 1.55-How low can you
go)]. REALITY:
THIS IS A BEAR MARKET IN A SECULAR BEAR MARKET IN A RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A
SECULAR (AND QUITE PERMANENT-THEY’VE MADE ALL THE WRONG CHOICES) ECONOMIC
DOWNTREND IN THE U.S. ONE ANALYST/REPORTER/ JOURNALIST FROM INSIDE SOURCES PEGS THE
SUB-PRIME DOLLAR VALUE OF THE SHILLED WORTHLESS PAPER AT $516 TRILLION (EVEN A
PERCENTAGE OF SAME RENDERS THE PROBLEM UNFIXABLE-HENCE, CULPABLE PARTIES MUST
BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE AND DISGORGE THEIR ILL-GOTTEN GAINS FROM, IE.,
COMMISSIONING WORTHLESS PAPER, TAKING A POINT HERE OR THERE AND FRAUDULENTLY
PASSING SAME ON, AD INFINITUM, ETC.). Time to put the wall street among other
corporate frauds in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their
ill-gotten gains. [Please note: I seldom name analysts/reporters/journalists
bearing not so glad tidings for fear they’ll be crucified by the frauds on wall
street]. (3-10-08) (DOW –153, NASDAQ -43, S&P –20) [CLOSE-
OIL $107.92 NEW RECORD (NEW INTRA-DAY HIGH ABOVE $108)/ GOLD $971.80 / SILVER
$19.79/ PLATINUM $2,039.10/ DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOW AGAINST EURO $1.54 How low
can you go]. MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY, NEW BANK
DOWNGRADES, MORGAN SLASHES EARNINGS ESTIMATES FOR S&P AND SAYS ALREADY IN
RECESSION, EVEN MORE ECONOMISTS NOW SAY THE OBVIOUS/RECESSION, RUMOR THAT BEAR
STERNS WITH SUBSTANTIAL LIQUIDITY ISSUES IS GOING UNDER, DOLLAR DOWN, EARNINGS
ESTIMATES CUT ON CITIBANK AND BANKOFAMERICA, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS
(HYPERINFLATIONARY) HIGH ENERGY AND FOOD PRICES (CONVENIENTLY LEFT OUT OF THE
FED’S “TOUTED” CORE RATE) ARE SQUEEZING THE CONSUMER (AND HENCE, CONSUMPTION/65%
OF GDP) AND THAT COMMODITIES A BUBBLE AND MULTINATIONALS WITH OVERSEAS
EARNINGS/POSITVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO WEAKER DOLLAR PREFERRED, AN OIL
ANALYST SAYS $200 OIL POSSIBLE (REITERATING GOLDMAN) WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING
OF DOLLAR, ANOTHER ANALYST/JOURNALIST SAYS SELL DOLLAR DENOMINATED STOCKS/SECURITIES/ASSETS
WHICH HAVE MUCH FURTHER TO FALL AND REITERATES AS DID BARRON’S THAT MORTGAGE
INSURERS HAVE OVER $5 TRILLION IN DEBT/EXPOSURE AND THAT MANY OF THE NATIONS
BANKS ARE ALREADY INSOLVENT SO GET OUT OF THE DOLLAR AND U.S. STOCKS. 3-7-08
BAD EMPLOYMENT/JOBS DATA across ALL SECTORS AS 63,000 JOBS LOST WITH DOWNWARD
REVISIONS TO DECEMBER AND JANUARY (ACTUALLY LOST 20,000) JOBS NUMBERS, ONE
ANALYST SAYS WE’RE IN A RECESSION WHILE MORE ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH ONE
STATING THAT YOU ALMOST NEVER SEE BACK-TO-BACK MONTHLY DECLINE IN EMPLOYMENT
WITHOUT RECESSION AS NOW, DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOWS, CONSUMERS INCREASED
BORROWING TO STAY AFLOAT, WASHINGTON MUTUAL FURTHER DOWNGRADES, SUPPORT LEVELS
BROKEN TO THE DOWNSIDE, sentiment- 85% believe things will get worse. 3-6-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY TO KEEP THE
SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING. 23% INCREASE IN FORECLOSURES IN FOURTH
QUARTER NEW RECORD HIGH, DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOWS, 10% OF HOMES WITH 0 OR
NEGATIVE EQUITY, MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION SAYS HOME FORECLOSURES AT
ALL-TIME HIGH AND GOING HIGHER, ONE R.E. ANALYST SAYS ROUGH YEAR AHEAD WITH
FORECLOSURES AND DEFAULTS UP, ONE ANALYST SAYS MARKET WILL TEST NEW LOWS/SUPPORT
LEVELS WITH FLIGHT TO “QUALITY”/TREASURIES, LENDER THORNBURG DEFAULTS AND ALONG
WITH WASHINGTON MUTUAL IS DOWNGRADED, CONTINUING CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT AT
HIGH LEVELS MEANS COMPANIES SHRINKING, IGNORE KNEE-JERK ELECTION YEAR
GOVERNMENT HUNKY DORY FAKE REPORTS. 3-5-08 OIL INVENTORIES LESS THAN
EXPECTED, FED BEIGE BOOK CITES ECONOMIC WEAKNESS PARTICULARLY SINCE BEGINNING
OF THE YEAR, LABOR COSTS ROSE, RISING PRICE PRESSURES/STAGFLATION,
RECESSION/BEAR MARKET, ONE ANALYST SAYS TOUGH FIRST HALF RECOMMENDS
MULTINATIONALS WITH 50% OVERSEAS EARNINGS (FAVORABLE CURRENCY TRANSLATION) AND
CONSUMER STAPLES/HEALTH RELATED/DEFENSIVE STOCKS, AMBAC TO FLOAT STOCK TO SHORE
UP BALANCE SHEET TO TUNE OF $1.5 BILLION/DILUTION AND SHARES FALL $2 TO $8.70, OIL ANALYST CITES DECLINE IN OIL
INVENTORIES/DIESEL/JET FUEL AND WEAK DOLLAR AND TOP $108-$110 BUT $120-$130 IF
VENEZUELA/COLUMBIA CONFLICT AND MORE RECORD HIGH GAS PRICES TO COME, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DECLINE IN REAL ESTATE/HOUSING WITH STARTS DOWN
15-20-40% ON WELL DESERVED PESSIMISM/CREDIT CRUNCH. 3-4-08 Suckers’
bear market rally into the close based on b**l s**t alone, viz.,
rumor/speculation about yet another bailout for wall street/ambac/bond insurers
and over 200 point swing to the upside based on nothing whatsoever, one
economist/analyst notes this is the deepest housing decline since great
depression, bernanke says another spike in foreclosures ahead and proposes
reduction of principal amounts in existing loans (sounds like a plan…..riiiiight!),
ken shreve finance editor investors business daily says bear market 6-9 months/
don’t try to catch a falling knife as institutions still selling/keep money
safe in 3% money market for time being, one oil analyst says oil higher before
lower as expected rate cut will further weaken dollar and drive up
oil/commodities prices and problems in consumer debt in addition to mortgages
and nobody wants to hold dollars,
3-3-08 Suckers’ bear market rally
into the close, yes we are in a recession from someone who unlike the frauds on
wall street has read security analysis by graham, dodd, and
cottle and understands it (warren buffet), all news
negative, ie., ism manufacturing index down to 48.3 (contraction), car sales
down at gm (-12%) and ford (-7%), construction spending down most in 14 years,
oil analysts point to the new highs while economist/analyst says dollar has
fallen through all support levels meaning more bottoms to come, INFLATION
OUTPACING CONSUMER SPENDING (EVEN WITH SPENDING NUMBER HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
WHICH PROBABLY MEANS REALITY WAS NEGATIVE), CONSUMER CONFIDENCE/SENTIMENT DOWN
SHARPLY, CHICAGO MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN INDICATING CONTRACTION, $5.29 BILLION
LOSS FOR AIG ON WRITEOFFS, INTRA DAY HIGH FOR OIL OVER $103, INFLATION/WEAK
DOLLAR/ECONOMIC WEAKNESS=STAGFLATION, FOURTH MONTHLY DECLINE IN A ROW FOR STOCK
MARKET, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST IF NOT THEN ALMOST IN RECESSION WITH WORSE
INFLATION NEWS AND INFLATION ADJUSTED INCOME/SPENDING FLAT, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION AND CITES NEGATIVE SAVINGS RATE AND FURTHER
ECONOMIC WEAKNESS, ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED ECONOMIC WEAKNESS WITH FURTHER DOLLAR
DECLINE SO BULLISH ON METALS AND BEARISH ON STOCKS, AND YET ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS INFLATION/RECESSION BUT NOT DEPRESSION…..RIIIIIGHT, GDP
GROWTH REPORTED MUCH LESS THAN EXPECTED (BUT CLOSER TO REALITY) AT
MINISCULE .6%, UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS JUMP
19,000 TO 373,000 AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE POST KATRINA, BERNANKE SAYS CONSUMER
WORSE OFF THAN JUST AFTER 911(?) AND THAT SOME BANKS COULD (WILL) FAIL AND THAT
STAGFLATION WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS THE 70’S, FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC SHOW
MASSIVE LOSSES, ONE ANALYST 50 YEARS IN THE BUSINESS SEES RECESSION AND SAYS
FINANCIALS HAVE BECOME IMPENETRABLE IN TERMS OF ANALYSIS/LOSSES, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS WE’RE NOWHERE NEAR IMPROVEMENT IN R.E./HOUSING MARKET,
YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION WITH HIGHER INFLATION LOWER GROWTH
(STAGFLATION) AND THAT FED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN WRONG AND ONLY RECESSION TO
BRING DOWN INFLATION, new record LOW
FOR DOLLAR AGAINST EURO AND SWISS FRANC (AND EVEN WORTH LESS THAN THE LOWLY
CANADIAN LOONEY, ETC.) WHICH ALONG WITH DEFICIT SPENDING IS HYPERINFLATIONARY
AS OIL SEES NEW INTRADAY HIGH OF $102.64, SALES/ORDERS OF DURABLE GOODS DOWN
MORE THAN EXPECTED 5.3%, BERNANKE’S NEGATIVE COMMENTS ON GREENSPAN RECESSION
PROMISES RATE CUTS FOR NEW BUBBLE WHICH RALLIES STOCKS, ONE ANALYST SAYS BANKS
AS THEIR OWN INSURERS INCREASES RISK, ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DEFICIT
SPENDING INCREASES INFLATIONARY PROBLEMS/RISK, FORECLOSURES/BANK REPO’S UP 90%
YEAR OVER YEAR, REGULATORS PREDICT OVER 100 BANK FAILURES, FORECLOSURES UP 57%
IN JANUARY, WHOLESALE INFLATION UP MUCH HIGHER THAN EXPECTED 7.5% (CORE RATE
4+%), 9% DROP IN HOME VALUES/PRICES, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOWN TO 17 YEAR LOW,
ELECTION YEAR/PROTECT INCOMPETENT INCUMBENT GOV’T PRINTING WORTHLESS DOLLARS
LIKE MAD WITH EXCESS LIQUIDITY CHASING TOO FEW GOODS (IE., FOOD UP 6%, ETC.)
WHICH IS HYPER-INFLATIONARY, ECONOMIST/ANALYST DR. KELLNER SAYS EASIER
MONEY/FISCAL PACKAGE WON’T REFLATE HOUSING MARKET (RECESSION), ANOTHER ANALYST
SAYS IN BEAR MARKET/RECESSION RECOMMENDS DEFENSIVE/PREFERRED STOCKS/BONDS/CASH,
DR. SHILLER- CASE-SHILLER INDEX- HOME VALUES CONTINUED DECLINE AND IN OR ABOUT
TO ENTER RECESSION (that’s already here), Stiglitz
Blames Greenspan For Recession, IBM ON $15 BILLION BUYBACK AND JAWBONING
AND SIGNIFICANT OVERSEAS SALES (AND POSITIVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO THE
WORTHLESS DOLLAR) RALLIES MARKET (WHAT BULL S**T), SHARPLY LOWER AND MORE WORTHLESS DOLLAR/HIGH OIL PRICE RALLY
CREATES YET ANOTHER B.S. SWING OF OVER 200 POINTS TO THE UPSIDE, FOOD PRICES UP
6% ON ETHANOL CROWD-OUT, HOME SALES
DOWN 5.5% / MEDIAN SALES PRICE DOWN 4.6%, ONE R.E. EXPERT SAYS WITH SALES
FALLING AND FORECLOSURES RISING WORSE YET TO COME, LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
FELL FOR FOURTH MONTH IN A ROW (-.1%), PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX
UNEXPECTEDLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER (The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index fell
to a -24, indicating a sharp contraction in the region's manufacturing
activity. Economists had anticipated a reading of -10, a less pronounced
contraction. Last month the reading came in at -20.9.), ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS SIGNIFICANT INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT-STAGFLATION-AHEAD ALONG WITH
CONTINUED DEFLATION OF HOUSING BUBBLE WITH NATIONWIDE AVERAGE PRICE DECLINE OF
8-10% AND ANOTHER DECLINE OF 15-20% TO COME. MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY
TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS
FLOWING. (DOW –153, NASDAQ -43, S&P
–20) [CLOSE- OIL $107.92 / GOLD $971.80 / SILVER $19.79/ PLATINUM $2,039.10/
DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOW AGAINST EURO $1.54
How low can you go]. REALITY: THIS IS A BEAR MARKET IN A SECULAR BEAR
MARKET IN A RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A SECULAR (AND QUITE PERMANENT-THEY’VE MADE
ALL THE WRONG CHOICES) ECONOMIC DOWNTREND IN THE U.S. ONE ANALYST/REPORTER/ JOURNALIST FROM INSIDE
SOURCES PEGS THE SUB-PRIME DOLLAR VALUE OF THE SHILLED WORTHLESS PAPER AT $516
TRILLION (EVEN A PERCENTAGE OF SAME RENDERS THE PROBLEM UNFIXABLE-HENCE,
CULPABLE PARTIES MUST BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE AND DISGORGE THEIR ILL-GOTTEN GAINS
FROM, IE., COMMISSIONING WORTHLESS PAPER, TAKING A POINT HERE OR THERE AND
FRAUDULENTLY PASSING SAME ON, AD INFINITUM, ETC.). Time to put the wall street
among other corporate frauds in jail and require fines, penalties and
disgorgement of their ill-gotten gains. [Please note: I seldom name
analysts/reporters/journalists bearing not so glad tidings for fear they’ll be
crucified by the frauds on wall street]. (3-7-08) (DOW –146, NASDAQ -8, S&P –11) [CLOSE- OIL
$105.45 (NEW INTRA-DAY HIGH ABOVE $106)/ GOLD $974.20 / SILVER $20.14/ PLATINUM
$2,025/ DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOW AGAINST EURO $1.54 How low can you go]. MODEST
DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY, BAD
EMPLOYMENT/JOBS DATA across ALL SECTORS AS 63,000 JOBS LOST WITH DOWNWARD
REVISIONS TO DECEMBER AND JANUARY (ACTUALLY LOST 20,000) JOBS NUMBERS, ONE ANALYST
SAYS WE’RE IN A RECESSION WHILE MORE ECONOMISTS SAY RECESSION WITH ONE STATING
THAT YOU ALMOST NEVER SEE BACK-TO-BACK MONTHLY DECLINE IN EMPLOYMENT WITHOUT
RECESSION AS NOW, DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOWS, CONSUMERS INCREASED BORROWING TO
STAY AFLOAT, WASHINGTON MUTUAL FURTHER DOWNGRADES, SUPPORT LEVELS BROKEN TO THE
DOWNSIDE. 3-6-08 MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO
REALITY TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE
DOLLARS FLOWING. 23% INCREASE IN
FORECLOSURES IN FOURTH QUARTER NEW RECORD HIGH, DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOWS, 10%
OF HOMES WITH 0 OR NEGATIVE EQUITY, MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION SAYS HOME
FORECLOSURES AT ALL-TIME HIGH AND GOING HIGHER, ONE R.E. ANALYST SAYS ROUGH
YEAR AHEAD WITH FORECLOSURES AND DEFAULTS UP, ONE ANALYST SAYS MARKET WILL TEST
NEW LOWS/SUPPORT LEVELS WITH FLIGHT TO “QUALITY”/TREASURIES, LENDER THORNBURG
DEFAULTS AND ALONG WITH WASHINGTON MUTUAL IS DOWNGRADED, CONTINUING CLAIMS FOR
UNEMPLOYMENT AT HIGH LEVELS MEANS COMPANIES SHRINKING, IGNORE KNEE-JERK
ELECTION YEAR GOVERNMENT HUNKY DORY FAKE REPORTS. 3-5-08 OIL INVENTORIES
LESS THAN EXPECTED, FED BEIGE BOOK CITES ECONOMIC WEAKNESS PARTICULARLY SINCE
BEGINNING OF THE YEAR, LABOR COSTS ROSE, RISING PRICE PRESSURES/STAGFLATION,
RECESSION/BEAR MARKET, ONE ANALYST SAYS TOUGH FIRST HALF RECOMMENDS
MULTINATIONALS WITH 50% OVERSEAS EARNINGS (FAVORABLE CURRENCY TRANSLATION) AND
CONSUMER STAPLES/HEALTH RELATED/DEFENSIVE STOCKS, AMBAC TO FLOAT STOCK TO SHORE
UP BALANCE SHEET TO TUNE OF $1.5 BILLION/DILUTION AND SHARES FALL $2 TO $8.70, OIL ANALYST CITES DECLINE IN OIL
INVENTORIES/DIESEL/JET FUEL AND WEAK DOLLAR AND TOP $108-$110 BUT $120-$130 IF
VENEZUELA/COLUMBIA CONFLICT AND MORE RECORD HIGH GAS PRICES TO COME, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DECLINE IN REAL ESTATE/HOUSING WITH STARTS
DOWN 15-20-40% ON WELL DESERVED PESSIMISM/CREDIT CRUNCH. 3-4-08 Suckers’ bear market rally into the close based on b**l s**t alone,
viz., rumor/speculation about yet another bailout for wall street/ambac/bond
insurers and over 200 point swing to the upside based on nothing whatsoever,
one economist/analyst notes this is the deepest housing decline since great
depression, bernanke says another spike in foreclosures ahead and proposes
reduction of principal amounts in existing loans (sounds like a
plan…..riiiiight!), ken shreve finance editor investors business daily says
bear market 6-9 months/ don’t try to catch a falling knife as institutions
still selling/keep money safe in 3% money market for time being, one oil
analyst says oil higher before lower as expected rate cut will further weaken
dollar and drive up oil/commodities prices and problems in consumer debt in
addition to mortgages and nobody wants to hold dollars, 3-3-08 Suckers’ bear market rally into the close, yes we are in a recession
from someone who unlike the frauds on wall street has read security analysis
by graham, dodd, and cottle and understands it (warren buffet), all news
negative, ie., ism manufacturing index down to 48.3 (contraction), car sales
down at gm (-12%) and ford (-7%), construction spending down most in 14 years,
oil analysts point to the new highs while economist/analyst says dollar has
fallen through all support levels meaning more bottoms to come, INFLATION
OUTPACING CONSUMER SPENDING (EVEN WITH SPENDING NUMBER HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
WHICH PROBABLY MEANS REALITY WAS NEGATIVE), CONSUMER CONFIDENCE/SENTIMENT DOWN
SHARPLY, CHICAGO MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN INDICATING CONTRACTION, $5.29 BILLION
LOSS FOR AIG ON WRITEOFFS, INTRA DAY HIGH FOR OIL OVER $103, INFLATION/WEAK
DOLLAR/ECONOMIC WEAKNESS=STAGFLATION, FOURTH MONTHLY DECLINE IN A ROW FOR STOCK
MARKET, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST IF NOT THEN ALMOST IN RECESSION WITH WORSE
INFLATION NEWS AND INFLATION ADJUSTED INCOME/SPENDING FLAT, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION AND CITES NEGATIVE SAVINGS RATE AND FURTHER
ECONOMIC WEAKNESS, ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED ECONOMIC WEAKNESS WITH FURTHER DOLLAR
DECLINE SO BULLISH ON METALS AND BEARISH ON STOCKS, AND YET ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS INFLATION/RECESSION BUT NOT DEPRESSION…..RIIIIIGHT, GDP
GROWTH REPORTED MUCH LESS THAN EXPECTED (BUT CLOSER TO REALITY) AT
MINISCULE .6%, UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS JUMP
19,000 TO 373,000 AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE POST KATRINA, BERNANKE SAYS CONSUMER
WORSE OFF THAN JUST AFTER 911(?) AND THAT SOME BANKS COULD (WILL) FAIL AND THAT
STAGFLATION WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS THE 70’S, FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC SHOW
MASSIVE LOSSES, ONE ANALYST 50 YEARS IN THE BUSINESS SEES RECESSION AND SAYS
FINANCIALS HAVE BECOME IMPENETRABLE IN TERMS OF ANALYSIS/LOSSES, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS WE’RE NOWHERE NEAR IMPROVEMENT IN R.E./HOUSING MARKET, YET
ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION WITH HIGHER INFLATION LOWER GROWTH
(STAGFLATION) AND THAT FED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN WRONG AND ONLY RECESSION TO
BRING DOWN INFLATION, new record LOW
FOR DOLLAR AGAINST EURO AND SWISS FRANC (AND EVEN WORTH LESS THAN THE LOWLY
CANADIAN LOONEY, ETC.) WHICH ALONG WITH DEFICIT SPENDING IS HYPERINFLATIONARY
AS OIL SEES NEW INTRADAY HIGH OF $102.64, SALES/ORDERS OF DURABLE GOODS DOWN
MORE THAN EXPECTED 5.3%, BERNANKE’S NEGATIVE COMMENTS ON GREENSPAN RECESSION
PROMISES RATE CUTS FOR NEW BUBBLE WHICH RALLIES STOCKS, ONE ANALYST SAYS BANKS
AS THEIR OWN INSURERS INCREASES RISK, ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DEFICIT
SPENDING INCREASES INFLATIONARY PROBLEMS/RISK, FORECLOSURES/BANK REPO’S UP 90%
YEAR OVER YEAR, REGULATORS PREDICT OVER 100 BANK FAILURES, FORECLOSURES UP 57%
IN JANUARY, WHOLESALE INFLATION UP MUCH HIGHER THAN EXPECTED 7.5% (CORE RATE
4+%), 9% DROP IN HOME VALUES/PRICES, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOWN TO 17 YEAR LOW,
ELECTION YEAR/PROTECT INCOMPETENT INCUMBENT GOV’T PRINTING WORTHLESS DOLLARS
LIKE MAD WITH EXCESS LIQUIDITY CHASING TOO FEW GOODS (IE., FOOD UP 6%, ETC.)
WHICH IS HYPER-INFLATIONARY, ECONOMIST/ANALYST DR. KELLNER SAYS EASIER
MONEY/FISCAL PACKAGE WON’T REFLATE HOUSING MARKET (RECESSION), ANOTHER ANALYST
SAYS IN BEAR MARKET/RECESSION RECOMMENDS DEFENSIVE/PREFERRED STOCKS/BONDS/CASH,
DR. SHILLER- CASE-SHILLER INDEX- HOME VALUES CONTINUED DECLINE AND IN OR ABOUT
TO ENTER RECESSION (that’s already here), Stiglitz
Blames Greenspan For Recession, IBM ON $15 BILLION BUYBACK AND JAWBONING
AND SIGNIFICANT OVERSEAS SALES (AND POSITIVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO THE
WORTHLESS DOLLAR) RALLIES MARKET (WHAT BULL S**T), SHARPLY LOWER AND MORE WORTHLESS DOLLAR/HIGH OIL PRICE RALLY
CREATES YET ANOTHER B.S. SWING OF OVER 200 POINTS TO THE UPSIDE, FOOD PRICES UP
6% ON ETHANOL CROWD-OUT, HOME SALES
DOWN 5.5% / MEDIAN SALES PRICE DOWN 4.6%, ONE R.E. EXPERT SAYS WITH SALES
FALLING AND FORECLOSURES RISING WORSE YET TO COME, LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
FELL FOR FOURTH MONTH IN A ROW (-.1%), PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX
UNEXPECTEDLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER (The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index fell
to a -24, indicating a sharp contraction in the region's manufacturing
activity. Economists had anticipated a reading of -10, a less pronounced
contraction. Last month the reading came in at -20.9.), ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS SIGNIFICANT INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT-STAGFLATION-AHEAD ALONG WITH
CONTINUED DEFLATION OF HOUSING BUBBLE WITH NATIONWIDE AVERAGE PRICE DECLINE OF
8-10% AND ANOTHER DECLINE OF 15-20% TO COME. MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY
TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS
FLOWING. (DOW –146, NASDAQ -8, S&P
–11) [CLOSE- OIL $105.45 / GOLD $974.20 / SILVER $20.14/ PLATINUM $2,025/
DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOW AGAINST EURO $1.54
How low can you go]. REALITY: THIS IS A BEAR MARKET IN A SECULAR BEAR
MARKET IN A RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A SECULAR (AND QUITE PERMANENT-THEY’VE MADE
ALL THE WRONG CHOICES) ECONOMIC DOWNTREND IN THE U.S. ONE ANALYST/REPORTER/ JOURNALIST FROM INSIDE
SOURCES PEGS THE SUB-PRIME DOLLAR VALUE OF THE SHILLED WORTHLESS PAPER AT $516
TRILLION (EVEN A PERCENTAGE OF SAME RENDERS THE PROBLEM UNFIXABLE-HENCE,
CULPABLE PARTIES MUST BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE AND DISGORGE THEIR ILL-GOTTEN GAINS
FROM, IE., COMMISSIONING WORTHLESS PAPER, TAKING A POINT HERE OR THERE AND
FRAUDULENTLY PASSING SAME ON, AD INFINITUM, ETC.). Time to put the wall street
among other corporate frauds in jail and require fines, penalties and
disgorgement of their ill-gotten gains. [Please note: I seldom name analysts/reporters/journalists
bearing not so glad tidings for fear they’ll be crucified by the frauds on wall
street]. (3-6-08) (DOW -214, NASDAQ -52, S&P –29, RUSSELL
2000 SMALL CAPS -21) [CLOSE- OIL $105.45 new record/ GOLD $979.90 / SILVER $20.23/
PLATINUM $2,177/ DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOW AGAINST EURO $1.53+ ETC. How low can
you go]. MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY TO KEEP THE
SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING. 23% INCREASE IN FORECLOSURES IN FOURTH
QUARTER NEW RECORD HIGH, DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOWS, 10% OF HOMES WITH 0 OR
NEGATIVE EQUITY, MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION SAYS HOME FORECLOSURES AT
ALL-TIME HIGH AND GOING HIGHER, ONE R.E. ANALYST SAYS ROUGH YEAR AHEAD WITH
FORECLOSURES AND DEFAULTS UP, ONE ANALYST SAYS MARKET WILL TEST NEW
LOWS/SUPPORT LEVELS WITH FLIGHT TO “QUALITY”/TREASURIES, LENDER THORNBURG
DEFAULTS AND ALONG WITH WASHINGTON MUTUAL IS DOWNGRADED, CONTINUING CLAIMS FOR
UNEMPLOYMENT AT HIGH LEVELS MEANS COMPANIES SHRINKING, IGNORE KNEE-JERK
ELECTION YEAR GOVERNMENT HUNKY DORY FAKE REPORTS. 3-5-08 OIL INVENTORIES
LESS THAN EXPECTED, FED BEIGE BOOK CITES ECONOMIC WEAKNESS PARTICULARLY SINCE
BEGINNING OF THE YEAR, LABOR COSTS ROSE, RISING PRICE PRESSURES/STAGFLATION,
RECESSION/BEAR MARKET, ONE ANALYST SAYS TOUGH FIRST HALF RECOMMENDS
MULTINATIONALS WITH 50% OVERSEAS EARNINGS (FAVORABLE CURRENCY TRANSLATION) AND
CONSUMER STAPLES/HEALTH RELATED/DEFENSIVE STOCKS, AMBAC TO FLOAT STOCK TO SHORE
UP BALANCE SHEET TO TUNE OF $1.5 BILLION/DILUTION AND SHARES FALL $2 TO $8.70, OIL ANALYST CITES DECLINE IN OIL
INVENTORIES/DIESEL/JET FUEL AND WEAK DOLLAR AND TOP $108-$110 BUT $120-$130 IF
VENEZUELA/COLUMBIA CONFLICT AND MORE RECORD HIGH GAS PRICES TO COME, ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS CONTINUED DECLINE IN REAL ESTATE/HOUSING WITH STARTS DOWN 15-20-40% ON
WELL DESERVED PESSIMISM/CREDIT CRUNCH. 3-4-08
Suckers’ bear market rally into the
close based on b**l s**t alone, viz., rumor/speculation about yet another
bailout for wall street/ambac/bond insurers and over 200 point swing to the
upside based on nothing whatsoever, one economist/analyst notes this is the
deepest housing decline since great depression, bernanke says another spike in
foreclosures ahead and proposes reduction of principal amounts in existing
loans (sounds like a plan…..riiiiight!), ken shreve finance editor investors
business daily says bear market 6-9 months/ don’t try to catch a falling knife
as institutions still selling/keep money safe in 3% money market for time
being, one oil analyst says oil higher before lower as expected rate cut will
further weaken dollar and drive up oil/commodities prices and problems in
consumer debt in addition to mortgages and nobody wants to hold dollars, 3-3-08 Suckers’ bear market rally into the close, yes we are in a recession
from someone who unlike the frauds on wall street has read security analysis
by graham, dodd, and cottle and understands it (warren buffet), all news
negative, ie., ism manufacturing index down to 48.3 (contraction), car sales
down at gm (-12%) and ford (-7%), construction spending down most in 14 years,
oil analysts point to the new highs while economist/analyst says dollar has
fallen through all support levels meaning more bottoms to come, INFLATION
OUTPACING CONSUMER SPENDING (EVEN WITH SPENDING NUMBER HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
WHICH PROBABLY MEANS REALITY WAS NEGATIVE), CONSUMER CONFIDENCE/SENTIMENT DOWN
SHARPLY, CHICAGO MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN INDICATING CONTRACTION, $5.29 BILLION
LOSS FOR AIG ON WRITEOFFS, INTRA DAY HIGH FOR OIL OVER $103, INFLATION/WEAK
DOLLAR/ECONOMIC WEAKNESS=STAGFLATION, FOURTH MONTHLY DECLINE IN A ROW FOR STOCK
MARKET, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST IF NOT THEN ALMOST IN RECESSION WITH WORSE
INFLATION NEWS AND INFLATION ADJUSTED INCOME/SPENDING FLAT, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION AND CITES NEGATIVE SAVINGS RATE AND FURTHER
ECONOMIC WEAKNESS, ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED ECONOMIC WEAKNESS WITH FURTHER DOLLAR
DECLINE SO BULLISH ON METALS AND BEARISH ON STOCKS, AND YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS INFLATION/RECESSION BUT NOT DEPRESSION…..RIIIIIGHT, GDP GROWTH
REPORTED MUCH LESS THAN EXPECTED (BUT CLOSER TO REALITY) AT MINISCULE .6%, UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS JUMP 19,000 TO
373,000 AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE POST KATRINA, BERNANKE SAYS CONSUMER WORSE OFF
THAN JUST AFTER 911(?) AND THAT SOME BANKS COULD (WILL) FAIL AND THAT
STAGFLATION WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS THE 70’S, FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC SHOW
MASSIVE LOSSES, ONE ANALYST 50 YEARS IN THE BUSINESS SEES RECESSION AND SAYS
FINANCIALS HAVE BECOME IMPENETRABLE IN TERMS OF ANALYSIS/LOSSES, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS WE’RE NOWHERE NEAR IMPROVEMENT IN R.E./HOUSING MARKET,
YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION WITH HIGHER INFLATION LOWER GROWTH
(STAGFLATION) AND THAT FED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN WRONG AND ONLY RECESSION TO
BRING DOWN INFLATION, new record LOW
FOR DOLLAR AGAINST EURO AND SWISS FRANC (AND EVEN WORTH LESS THAN THE LOWLY
CANADIAN LOONEY, ETC.) WHICH ALONG WITH DEFICIT SPENDING IS HYPERINFLATIONARY
AS OIL SEES NEW INTRADAY HIGH OF $102.64, SALES/ORDERS OF DURABLE GOODS DOWN
MORE THAN EXPECTED 5.3%, BERNANKE’S NEGATIVE COMMENTS ON GREENSPAN RECESSION
PROMISES RATE CUTS FOR NEW BUBBLE WHICH RALLIES STOCKS, ONE ANALYST SAYS BANKS
AS THEIR OWN INSURERS INCREASES RISK, ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DEFICIT
SPENDING INCREASES INFLATIONARY PROBLEMS/RISK, FORECLOSURES/BANK REPO’S UP 90%
YEAR OVER YEAR, REGULATORS PREDICT OVER 100 BANK FAILURES, FORECLOSURES UP 57%
IN JANUARY, WHOLESALE INFLATION UP MUCH HIGHER THAN EXPECTED 7.5% (CORE RATE
4+%), 9% DROP IN HOME VALUES/PRICES, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOWN TO 17 YEAR LOW,
ELECTION YEAR/PROTECT INCOMPETENT INCUMBENT GOV’T PRINTING WORTHLESS DOLLARS
LIKE MAD WITH EXCESS LIQUIDITY CHASING TOO FEW GOODS (IE., FOOD UP 6%, ETC.)
WHICH IS HYPER-INFLATIONARY, ECONOMIST/ANALYST DR. KELLNER SAYS EASIER
MONEY/FISCAL PACKAGE WON’T REFLATE HOUSING MARKET (RECESSION), ANOTHER ANALYST
SAYS IN BEAR MARKET/RECESSION RECOMMENDS DEFENSIVE/PREFERRED STOCKS/BONDS/CASH,
DR. SHILLER- CASE-SHILLER INDEX- HOME VALUES CONTINUED DECLINE AND IN OR ABOUT
TO ENTER RECESSION (that’s already here), Stiglitz
Blames Greenspan For Recession, IBM ON $15 BILLION BUYBACK AND JAWBONING
AND SIGNIFICANT OVERSEAS SALES (AND POSITIVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO THE
WORTHLESS DOLLAR) RALLIES MARKET (WHAT BULL S**T), SHARPLY LOWER AND MORE WORTHLESS DOLLAR/HIGH OIL PRICE RALLY
CREATES YET ANOTHER B.S. SWING OF OVER 200 POINTS TO THE UPSIDE, FOOD PRICES UP
6% ON ETHANOL CROWD-OUT, HOME SALES
DOWN 5.5% / MEDIAN SALES PRICE DOWN 4.6%, ONE R.E. EXPERT SAYS WITH SALES
FALLING AND FORECLOSURES RISING WORSE YET TO COME, LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
FELL FOR FOURTH MONTH IN A ROW (-.1%), PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX UNEXPECTEDLY
AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER (The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index fell to a -24,
indicating a sharp contraction in the region's manufacturing activity.
Economists had anticipated a reading of -10, a less pronounced contraction.
Last month the reading came in at -20.9.), ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS
SIGNIFICANT INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT-STAGFLATION-AHEAD ALONG WITH CONTINUED
DEFLATION OF HOUSING BUBBLE WITH NATIONWIDE AVERAGE PRICE DECLINE OF 8-10% AND
ANOTHER DECLINE OF 15-20% TO COME. MODEST DROP IN STOCKS RELATIVE TO REALITY TO KEEP THE SUCKERS
SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING. (DOW -214, NASDAQ -52, S&P –29, RUSSEL
2000 SMALL CAPS -21) [CLOSE- OIL $105.45 new record/ GOLD $979.90 / SILVER $20.23/
PLATINUM $2,177/ DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOW AGAINST EURO $1.53+ How low can you go]. REALITY: THIS IS A BEAR
MARKET IN A SECULAR BEAR MARKET IN A RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A SECULAR (AND QUITE
PERMANENT-THEY’VE MADE ALL THE WRONG CHOICES) ECONOMIC DOWNTREND IN THE U.S. ONE
ANALYST/REPORTER/ JOURNALIST FROM INSIDE SOURCES PEGS THE SUB-PRIME DOLLAR
VALUE OF THE SHILLED WORTHLESS PAPER AT $516 TRILLION (EVEN A PERCENTAGE OF
SAME RENDERS THE PROBLEM UNFIXABLE-HENCE, CULPABLE PARTIES MUST BE HELD
ACCOUNTABLE AND DISGORGE THEIR ILL-GOTTEN GAINS FROM, IE., COMMISSIONING
WORTHLESS PAPER, TAKING A POINT HERE OR THERE AND FRAUDULENTLY PASSING SAME ON,
AD INFINITUM, ETC.). Time to put the wall street among other corporate frauds
in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their ill-gotten
gains. [Please note: I seldom name analysts
bearing not so glad tidings for fear they’ll be crucified by the frauds on wall
street]. (3-5-08) (DOW +41, NASDAQ +12, S&P +6) [CLOSE- OIL
$104.57 new record/ GOLD $988.50 new record / SILVER $20.79/ PLATINUM $2,276.10/
DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOW AGAINST EURO $1.53 – How low can you go]. Suckers’
bear market rally into the close TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND
THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING. OIL INVENTORIES LESS THAN
EXPECTED, FED BEIGE BOOK CITES ECONOMIC WEAKNESS PARTICULARLY SINCE BEGINNING
OF THE YEAR, LABOR COSTS ROSE, RISING PRICE PRESSURES/STAGFLATION,
RECESSION/BEAR MARKET, ONE ANALYST SAYS TOUGH FIRST HALF RECOMMENDS MULTINATIONALS
WITH 50% OVERSEAS EARNINGS (FAVORABLE CURRENCY TRANSLATION) AND CONSUMER
STAPLES/HEALTH RELATED/DEFENSIVE STOCKS, AMBAC TO FLOAT STOCK TO SHORE UP
BALANCE SHEET TO TUNE OF $1.5 BILLION/DILUTION AND SHARES FALL $2 TO $8.70, OIL ANALYST CITES DECLINE IN OIL
INVENTORIES/DIESEL/JET FUEL AND WEAK DOLLAR AND TOP $108-$110 BUT $120-$130 IF
VENEZUELA/COLUMBIA CONFLICT AND MORE RECORD HIGH GAS PRICES TO COME, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DECLINE IN REAL ESTATE/HOUSING WITH STARTS
DOWN 15-20-40% ON WELL DESERVED PESSIMISM/CREDIT CRUNCH. 3-4-08 Suckers’
bear market rally into the close based on b**l s**t alone, viz.,
rumor/speculation about yet another bailout for wall street/ambac/bond insurers
and over 200 point swing to the upside based on nothing whatsoever, one
economist/analyst notes this is the deepest housing decline since great
depression, bernanke says another spike in foreclosures ahead and proposes
reduction of principal amounts in existing loans (sounds like a
plan…..riiiiight!), ken shreve finance editor investors business daily says
bear market 6-9 months/ don’t try to catch a falling knife as institutions
still selling/keep money safe in 3% money market for time being, one oil
analyst says oil higher before lower as expected rate cut will further weaken
dollar and drive up oil/commodities prices and problems in consumer debt in
addition to mortgages and nobody wants to hold dollars, 3-3-08 Suckers’ bear market rally into the close, yes
we are in a recession from someone who unlike the frauds on wall street has
read security analysis by graham, dodd, and cottle and understands
it (warren buffet), all news negative, ie., ism manufacturing
index down to 48.3 (contraction), car sales down at gm (-12%) and ford (-7%),
construction spending down most in 14 years, oil analysts point to the new
highs while economist/analyst says dollar has fallen through all support levels
meaning more bottoms to come, INFLATION OUTPACING CONSUMER SPENDING (EVEN WITH
SPENDING NUMBER HIGHER THAN EXPECTED WHICH PROBABLY MEANS REALITY WAS
NEGATIVE), CONSUMER CONFIDENCE/SENTIMENT DOWN SHARPLY, CHICAGO MANUFACTURING
INDEX DOWN INDICATING CONTRACTION, $5.29 BILLION LOSS FOR AIG ON WRITEOFFS,
INTRA DAY HIGH FOR OIL OVER $103, INFLATION/WEAK DOLLAR/ECONOMIC
WEAKNESS=STAGFLATION, FOURTH MONTHLY DECLINE IN A ROW FOR STOCK MARKET, ONE
ECONOMIST/ANALYST IF NOT THEN ALMOST IN RECESSION WITH WORSE INFLATION NEWS AND
INFLATION ADJUSTED INCOME/SPENDING FLAT, ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS
RECESSION AND CITES NEGATIVE SAVINGS RATE AND FURTHER ECONOMIC WEAKNESS,
ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED ECONOMIC WEAKNESS WITH FURTHER DOLLAR DECLINE SO BULLISH
ON METALS AND BEARISH ON STOCKS, AND YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS
INFLATION/RECESSION BUT NOT DEPRESSION…..RIIIIIGHT, GDP GROWTH REPORTED
MUCH LESS THAN EXPECTED (BUT CLOSER TO REALITY) AT MINISCULE .6%, UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS JUMP 19,000 TO
373,000 AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE POST KATRINA, BERNANKE SAYS CONSUMER WORSE OFF
THAN JUST AFTER 911(?) AND THAT SOME BANKS COULD (WILL) FAIL AND THAT
STAGFLATION WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS THE 70’S, FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC SHOW
MASSIVE LOSSES, ONE ANALYST 50 YEARS IN THE BUSINESS SEES RECESSION AND SAYS FINANCIALS
HAVE BECOME IMPENETRABLE IN TERMS OF ANALYSIS/LOSSES, ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS WE’RE NOWHERE NEAR IMPROVEMENT IN R.E./HOUSING MARKET, YET ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION WITH HIGHER INFLATION LOWER GROWTH
(STAGFLATION) AND THAT FED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN WRONG AND ONLY RECESSION TO
BRING DOWN INFLATION, new record LOW
FOR DOLLAR AGAINST EURO AND SWISS FRANC (AND EVEN WORTH LESS THAN THE LOWLY
CANADIAN LOONEY, ETC.) WHICH ALONG WITH DEFICIT SPENDING IS HYPERINFLATIONARY
AS OIL SEES NEW INTRADAY HIGH OF $102.64, SALES/ORDERS OF DURABLE GOODS DOWN
MORE THAN EXPECTED 5.3%, BERNANKE’S NEGATIVE COMMENTS ON GREENSPAN RECESSION
PROMISES RATE CUTS FOR NEW BUBBLE WHICH RALLIES STOCKS, ONE ANALYST SAYS BANKS
AS THEIR OWN INSURERS INCREASES RISK, ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DEFICIT
SPENDING INCREASES INFLATIONARY PROBLEMS/RISK, FORECLOSURES/BANK REPO’S UP 90%
YEAR OVER YEAR, REGULATORS PREDICT OVER 100 BANK FAILURES, FORECLOSURES UP 57%
IN JANUARY, WHOLESALE INFLATION UP MUCH HIGHER THAN EXPECTED 7.5% (CORE RATE
4+%), 9% DROP IN HOME VALUES/PRICES, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOWN TO 17 YEAR LOW,
ELECTION YEAR/PROTECT INCOMPETENT INCUMBENT GOV’T PRINTING WORTHLESS DOLLARS
LIKE MAD WITH EXCESS LIQUIDITY CHASING TOO FEW GOODS (IE., FOOD UP 6%, ETC.)
WHICH IS HYPER-INFLATIONARY, ECONOMIST/ANALYST DR. KELLNER SAYS EASIER
MONEY/FISCAL PACKAGE WON’T REFLATE HOUSING MARKET (RECESSION), ANOTHER ANALYST
SAYS IN BEAR MARKET/RECESSION RECOMMENDS DEFENSIVE/PREFERRED STOCKS/BONDS/CASH,
DR. SHILLER- CASE-SHILLER INDEX- HOME VALUES CONTINUED DECLINE AND IN OR ABOUT
TO ENTER RECESSION (that’s already here), Stiglitz
Blames Greenspan For Recession, IBM ON $15 BILLION BUYBACK AND JAWBONING
AND SIGNIFICANT OVERSEAS SALES (AND POSITIVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO THE
WORTHLESS DOLLAR) RALLIES MARKET (WHAT BULL S**T), SHARPLY LOWER AND MORE WORTHLESS DOLLAR/HIGH OIL PRICE RALLY
CREATES YET ANOTHER B.S. SWING OF OVER 200 POINTS TO THE UPSIDE, FOOD PRICES UP
6% ON ETHANOL CROWD-OUT, HOME SALES
DOWN 5.5% / MEDIAN SALES PRICE DOWN 4.6%, ONE R.E. EXPERT SAYS WITH SALES
FALLING AND FORECLOSURES RISING WORSE YET TO COME, LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
FELL FOR FOURTH MONTH IN A ROW (-.1%), PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX
UNEXPECTEDLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER (The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index fell
to a -24, indicating a sharp contraction in the region's manufacturing
activity. Economists had anticipated a reading of -10, a less pronounced
contraction. Last month the reading came in at -20.9.), ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS SIGNIFICANT INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT-STAGFLATION-AHEAD ALONG WITH
CONTINUED DEFLATION OF HOUSING BUBBLE WITH NATIONWIDE AVERAGE PRICE DECLINE OF
8-10% AND ANOTHER DECLINE OF 15-20% TO COME. Suckers’ bear market rally into
the close TO KEEP
THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING. (DOW +41, NASDAQ +12, S&P +6) [CLOSE- OIL
$104.57 new record/ GOLD $988.50 new record / SILVER $20.79/ PLATINUM $2,276.10/
DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOW AGAINST EURO $1.53 – How low can you go]. REALITY: THIS IS A BEAR
MARKET IN A SECULAR BEAR MARKET IN A RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A SECULAR (AND QUITE
PERMANENT-THEY’VE MADE ALL THE WRONG CHOICES) ECONOMIC DOWNTREND IN THE U.S. ONE
ANALYST/REPORTER/ JOURNALIST FROM INSIDE SOURCES PEGS THE SUB-PRIME DOLLAR VALUE
OF THE SHILLED WORTHLESS PAPER AT $516 TRILLION (EVEN A PERCENTAGE OF SAME
RENDERS THE PROBLEM UNFIXABLE-HENCE, CULPABLE PARTIES MUST BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE
AND DISGORGE THEIR ILL-GOTTEN GAINS FROM, IE., COMMISSIONING WORTHLESS PAPER,
TAKING A POINT HERE OR THERE AND FRAUDULENTLY PASSING SAME ON, AD INFINITUM,
ETC.). Time to put the wall street among other corporate frauds in jail and
require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their ill-gotten gains. [Please note:
I seldom name analysts bearing not so glad tidings for fear they’ll be
crucified by the frauds on wall street]. (3-4-08) (DOW -45, NASDAQ +1, S&P-4) [CLOSE- OIL
$99.52/ GOLD $966.30/ SILVER $19.84/ PLATINUM $2,267/DOLLAR – How low can you
go]. Suckers’ bear market rally into the close based on b**l s**t alone,
viz., rumor/speculation about yet another bailout for wall street/ambac/bond
insurers and over 200 point swing to the upside based on nothing whatsoever,
one economist/analyst notes this is the deepest housing decline since great
depression, bernanke says another spike in foreclosures ahead and proposes
reduction of principal amounts in existing loans (sounds like a
plan…..riiiiight!), ken shreve finance editor investors business daily says
bear market 6-9 months/ don’t try to catch a falling knife as institutions
still selling/keep money safe in 3% money market for time being, one oil
analyst says oil higher before lower as expected rate cut will further weaken
dollar and drive up oil/commodities prices and problems in consumer debt in
addition to mortgages and nobody wants to hold dollars, Suckers’ bear
market rally into the close, yes we are in a recession from someone who unlike
the frauds on wall street has read security analysis by graham, dodd,
and cottle and understands it (warren buffet), all news
negative, ie., ism manufacturing index down to 48.3 (contraction), car sales
down at gm (-12%) and ford (-7%), construction spending down most in 14 years,
oil analysts point to the new highs while economist/analyst says dollar has
fallen through all support levels meaning more bottoms to come, INFLATION
OUTPACING CONSUMER SPENDING (EVEN WITH SPENDING NUMBER HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
WHICH PROBABLY MEANS REALITY WAS NEGATIVE), CONSUMER CONFIDENCE/SENTIMENT DOWN
SHARPLY, CHICAGO MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN INDICATING CONTRACTION, $5.29 BILLION
LOSS FOR AIG ON WRITEOFFS, INTRA DAY HIGH FOR OIL OVER $103, INFLATION/WEAK
DOLLAR/ECONOMIC WEAKNESS=STAGFLATION, FOURTH MONTHLY DECLINE IN A ROW FOR STOCK
MARKET, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST IF NOT THEN ALMOST IN RECESSION WITH WORSE
INFLATION NEWS AND INFLATION ADJUSTED INCOME/SPENDING FLAT, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION AND CITES NEGATIVE SAVINGS RATE AND FURTHER
ECONOMIC WEAKNESS, ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED ECONOMIC WEAKNESS WITH FURTHER DOLLAR
DECLINE SO BULLISH ON METALS AND BEARISH ON STOCKS, AND YET ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS INFLATION/RECESSION BUT NOT DEPRESSION…..RIIIIIGHT, GDP
GROWTH REPORTED MUCH LESS THAN EXPECTED (BUT CLOSER TO REALITY) AT
MINISCULE .6%, UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS JUMP
19,000 TO 373,000 AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE POST KATRINA, BERNANKE SAYS CONSUMER
WORSE OFF THAN JUST AFTER 911(?) AND THAT SOME BANKS COULD (WILL) FAIL AND THAT
STAGFLATION WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS THE 70’S, FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC SHOW
MASSIVE LOSSES, ONE ANALYST 50 YEARS IN THE BUSINESS SEES RECESSION AND SAYS FINANCIALS
HAVE BECOME IMPENETRABLE IN TERMS OF ANALYSIS/LOSSES, ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS WE’RE NOWHERE NEAR IMPROVEMENT IN R.E./HOUSING MARKET, YET ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION WITH HIGHER INFLATION LOWER GROWTH
(STAGFLATION) AND THAT FED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN WRONG AND ONLY RECESSION TO
BRING DOWN INFLATION, new record LOW
FOR DOLLAR AGAINST EURO AND SWISS FRANC (AND EVEN WORTH LESS THAN THE LOWLY
CANADIAN LOONEY, ETC.) WHICH ALONG WITH DEFICIT SPENDING IS HYPERINFLATIONARY
AS OIL SEES NEW INTRADAY HIGH OF $102.64, SALES/ORDERS OF DURABLE GOODS DOWN
MORE THAN EXPECTED 5.3%, BERNANKE’S NEGATIVE COMMENTS ON GREENSPAN RECESSION
PROMISES RATE CUTS FOR NEW BUBBLE WHICH RALLIES STOCKS, ONE ANALYST SAYS BANKS
AS THEIR OWN INSURERS INCREASES RISK, ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DEFICIT
SPENDING INCREASES INFLATIONARY PROBLEMS/RISK, FORECLOSURES/BANK REPO’S UP 90%
YEAR OVER YEAR, REGULATORS PREDICT OVER 100 BANK FAILURES, FORECLOSURES UP 57%
IN JANUARY, WHOLESALE INFLATION UP MUCH HIGHER THAN EXPECTED 7.5% (CORE RATE
4+%), 9% DROP IN HOME VALUES/PRICES, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOWN TO 17 YEAR LOW,
ELECTION YEAR/PROTECT INCOMPETENT INCUMBENT GOV’T PRINTING WORTHLESS DOLLARS
LIKE MAD WITH EXCESS LIQUIDITY CHASING TOO FEW GOODS (IE., FOOD UP 6%, ETC.)
WHICH IS HYPER-INFLATIONARY, ECONOMIST/ANALYST DR. KELLNER SAYS EASIER
MONEY/FISCAL PACKAGE WON’T REFLATE HOUSING MARKET (RECESSION), ANOTHER ANALYST
SAYS IN BEAR MARKET/RECESSION RECOMMENDS DEFENSIVE/PREFERRED STOCKS/BONDS/CASH,
DR. SHILLER- CASE-SHILLER INDEX- HOME VALUES CONTINUED DECLINE AND IN OR ABOUT
TO ENTER RECESSION (that’s already here), Stiglitz
Blames Greenspan For Recession, IBM ON $15 BILLION BUYBACK AND JAWBONING
AND SIGNIFICANT OVERSEAS SALES (AND POSITIVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO THE
WORTHLESS DOLLAR) RALLIES MARKET (WHAT BULL S**T), SHARPLY LOWER AND MORE WORTHLESS DOLLAR/HIGH OIL PRICE RALLY
CREATES YET ANOTHER B.S. SWING OF OVER 200 POINTS TO THE UPSIDE, FOOD PRICES UP
6% ON ETHANOL CROWD-OUT, HOME SALES
DOWN 5.5% / MEDIAN SALES PRICE DOWN 4.6%, ONE R.E. EXPERT SAYS WITH SALES
FALLING AND FORECLOSURES RISING WORSE YET TO COME, LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
FELL FOR FOURTH MONTH IN A ROW (-.1%), PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX
UNEXPECTEDLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER (The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index fell
to a -24, indicating a sharp contraction in the region's manufacturing
activity. Economists had anticipated a reading of -10, a less pronounced
contraction. Last month the reading came in at -20.9.), ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS SIGNIFICANT INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT-STAGFLATION-AHEAD ALONG WITH
CONTINUED DEFLATION OF HOUSING BUBBLE WITH NATIONWIDE AVERAGE PRICE DECLINE OF
8-10% AND ANOTHER DECLINE OF 15-20% TO COME. Suckers’ bear market rally into
the close TO KEEP
THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING. (DOW -45, NASDAQ +1, S&P-4) [CLOSE- OIL
$99.52/ GOLD $966.30/ SILVER $19.84/ PLATINUM $2,267/DOLLAR – How low can you
go]. REALITY:
THIS IS A BEAR MARKET IN A SECULAR BEAR MARKET IN A RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A
SECULAR (AND QUITE PERMANENT-THEY’VE MADE ALL THE WRONG CHOICES) ECONOMIC
DOWNTREND IN THE U.S. ONE ANALYST/REPORTER/ JOURNALIST FROM INSIDE SOURCES PEGS THE
SUB-PRIME DOLLAR VALUE OF THE SHILLED WORTHLESS PAPER AT $516 TRILLION (EVEN A
PERCENTAGE OF SAME RENDERS THE PROBLEM UNFIXABLE-HENCE, CULPABLE PARTIES MUST
BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE AND DISGORGE THEIR ILL-GOTTEN GAINS FROM, IE.,
COMMISSIONING WORTHLESS PAPER, TAKING A POINT HERE OR THERE AND FRAUDULENTLY
PASSING SAME ON, AD INFINITUM, ETC.). Time to put the wall street among other
corporate frauds in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their
ill-gotten gains. [Please note: I seldom name analysts bearing not so glad
tidings for fear they’ll be crucified by the frauds on wall street]. (3-3-08) (DOW -7, NASDAQ -12, S&P-0-) [CLOSE- OIL
$102.45 NEW RECORD intraday $103.95/ GOLD $984.20 NEW RECORD intraday $992+/
SILVER $20.07/ PLATINUM $2,241.60/DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOW AGAINST EURO near
$1.53]. Suckers’ bear market rally into the close, yes we are in a
recession from someone who unlike the frauds on wall street has read security analysis
by graham, dodd, and cottle and understands it (warren buffet), all news
negative, ie., ism manufacturing index down to 48.3 (contraction), car sales
down at gm (-12%) and ford (-7%), construction spending down most in 14 years,
oil analysts point to the new highs while economist/analyst says dollar has
fallen through all support levels meaning more bottoms to come, INFLATION
OUTPACING CONSUMER SPENDING (EVEN WITH SPENDING NUMBER HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
WHICH PROBABLY MEANS REALITY WAS NEGATIVE), CONSUMER CONFIDENCE/SENTIMENT DOWN
SHARPLY, CHICAGO MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN INDICATING CONTRACTION, $5.29 BILLION
LOSS FOR AIG ON WRITEOFFS, INTRA DAY HIGH FOR OIL OVER $103, INFLATION/WEAK
DOLLAR/ECONOMIC WEAKNESS=STAGFLATION, FOURTH MONTHLY DECLINE IN A ROW FOR STOCK
MARKET, ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST IF NOT THEN ALMOST IN RECESSION WITH WORSE
INFLATION NEWS AND INFLATION ADJUSTED INCOME/SPENDING FLAT, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION AND CITES NEGATIVE SAVINGS RATE AND FURTHER
ECONOMIC WEAKNESS, ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED ECONOMIC WEAKNESS WITH FURTHER DOLLAR
DECLINE SO BULLISH ON METALS AND BEARISH ON STOCKS, AND YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS INFLATION/RECESSION BUT NOT DEPRESSION…..RIIIIIGHT, GDP GROWTH
REPORTED MUCH LESS THAN EXPECTED (BUT CLOSER TO REALITY) AT MINISCULE .6%, UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS JUMP 19,000 TO
373,000 AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE POST KATRINA, BERNANKE SAYS CONSUMER WORSE OFF
THAN JUST AFTER 911(?) AND THAT SOME BANKS COULD (WILL) FAIL AND THAT
STAGFLATION WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS THE 70’S, FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC SHOW
MASSIVE LOSSES, ONE ANALYST 50 YEARS IN THE BUSINESS SEES RECESSION AND SAYS
FINANCIALS HAVE BECOME IMPENETRABLE IN TERMS OF ANALYSIS/LOSSES, ANOTHER
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS WE’RE NOWHERE NEAR IMPROVEMENT IN R.E./HOUSING MARKET,
YET ANOTHER ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS RECESSION WITH HIGHER INFLATION LOWER GROWTH
(STAGFLATION) AND THAT FED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN WRONG AND ONLY RECESSION TO
BRING DOWN INFLATION, new record LOW
FOR DOLLAR AGAINST EURO AND SWISS FRANC (AND EVEN WORTH LESS THAN THE LOWLY
CANADIAN LOONEY, ETC.) WHICH ALONG WITH DEFICIT SPENDING IS HYPERINFLATIONARY
AS OIL SEES NEW INTRADAY HIGH OF $102.64, SALES/ORDERS OF DURABLE GOODS DOWN
MORE THAN EXPECTED 5.3%, BERNANKE’S NEGATIVE COMMENTS ON GREENSPAN RECESSION
PROMISES RATE CUTS FOR NEW BUBBLE WHICH RALLIES STOCKS, ONE ANALYST SAYS BANKS
AS THEIR OWN INSURERS INCREASES RISK, ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS CONTINUED DEFICIT
SPENDING INCREASES INFLATIONARY PROBLEMS/RISK, FORECLOSURES/BANK REPO’S UP 90%
YEAR OVER YEAR, REGULATORS PREDICT OVER 100 BANK FAILURES, FORECLOSURES UP 57%
IN JANUARY, WHOLESALE INFLATION UP MUCH HIGHER THAN EXPECTED 7.5% (CORE RATE
4+%), 9% DROP IN HOME VALUES/PRICES, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOWN TO 17 YEAR LOW,
ELECTION YEAR/PROTECT INCOMPETENT INCUMBENT GOV’T PRINTING WORTHLESS DOLLARS
LIKE MAD WITH EXCESS LIQUIDITY CHASING TOO FEW GOODS (IE., FOOD UP 6%, ETC.)
WHICH IS HYPER-INFLATIONARY, ECONOMIST/ANALYST DR. KELLNER SAYS EASIER
MONEY/FISCAL PACKAGE WON’T REFLATE HOUSING MARKET (RECESSION), ANOTHER ANALYST
SAYS IN BEAR MARKET/RECESSION RECOMMENDS DEFENSIVE/PREFERRED STOCKS/BONDS/CASH,
DR. SHILLER- CASE-SHILLER INDEX- HOME VALUES CONTINUED DECLINE AND IN OR ABOUT
TO ENTER RECESSION (that’s already here), Stiglitz
Blames Greenspan For Recession, IBM ON $15 BILLION BUYBACK AND JAWBONING
AND SIGNIFICANT OVERSEAS SALES (AND POSITIVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO THE
WORTHLESS DOLLAR) RALLIES MARKET (WHAT BULL S**T), SHARPLY LOWER AND MORE WORTHLESS DOLLAR/HIGH OIL PRICE RALLY
CREATES YET ANOTHER B.S. SWING OF OVER 200 POINTS TO THE UPSIDE, FOOD PRICES UP
6% ON ETHANOL CROWD-OUT, HOME SALES
DOWN 5.5% / MEDIAN SALES PRICE DOWN 4.6%, ONE R.E. EXPERT SAYS WITH SALES
FALLING AND FORECLOSURES RISING WORSE YET TO COME, LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
FELL FOR FOURTH MONTH IN A ROW (-.1%), PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX
UNEXPECTEDLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER (The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index fell
to a -24, indicating a sharp contraction in the region's manufacturing
activity. Economists had anticipated a reading of -10, a less pronounced
contraction. Last month the reading came in at -20.9.), ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST
SAYS SIGNIFICANT INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT-STAGFLATION-AHEAD ALONG WITH
CONTINUED DEFLATION OF HOUSING BUBBLE WITH NATIONWIDE AVERAGE PRICE DECLINE OF
8-10% AND ANOTHER DECLINE OF 15-20% TO COME. Suckers’ bear market rally
into the close TO
KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS
FLOWING. (DOW -7, NASDAQ -12,
S&P-0-) [CLOSE- OIL $102.45 NEW RECORD intraday $103.95/ GOLD $984.20 NEW
RECORD intraday $992+/ SILVER $20.07/ PLATINUM $2,241.60/DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD
LOW AGAINST EURO near $1.53]. REALITY: THIS IS A BEAR MARKET IN A SECULAR
BEAR MARKET IN A RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A SECULAR (AND QUITE PERMANENT-THEY’VE
MADE ALL THE WRONG CHOICES) ECONOMIC DOWNTREND IN THE U.S. ONE ANALYST/REPORTER/
JOURNALIST FROM INSIDE SOURCES PEGS THE SUB-PRIME DOLLAR VALUE OF THE SHILLED
WORTHLESS PAPER AT $516 TRILLION (EVEN A PERCENTAGE OF SAME RENDERS THE PROBLEM
UNFIXABLE-HENCE, CULPABLE PARTIES MUST BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE AND DISGORGE THEIR
ILL-GOTTEN GAINS FROM, IE., COMMISSIONING WORTHLESS PAPER, TAKING A POINT HERE
OR THERE AND FRAUDULENTLY PASSING SAME ON, AD INFINITUM, ETC.). Time to put the
wall street among other corporate frauds in jail and require fines, penalties
and disgorgement of their ill-gotten gains. [Please note: I seldom name analysts
bearing not so glad tidings for fear they’ll be crucified by the frauds on wall
street]. (2-29-08) (DOW -315, NASDAQ -60, S&P-37) [CLOSE- OIL
$101.84/ GOLD $974.30 NEW RECORD/ SILVER $19.81/ PLATINUM $2,161/DOLLAR AT NEW
RECORD LOW AGAINST EURO $1.52+]. (2-28-08) (DOW -112, NASDAQ -22, S&P-12) [CLOSE- OIL
$102.59 / GOLD $967.51/ SILVER $19.64/ PLATINUM $2,148/DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOW
AGAINST EURO $1.52]. (2-27-08) (DOW +9, NASDAQ +8, S&P-1) [CLOSE- OIL
$100.85 / GOLD $961.30/ SILVER $19.18/ PLATINUM $2,136/DOLLAR AT NEW RECORD LOW
AGAINST EURO $1.51] (2-26-08) (DOW +114, NASDAQ +17, S&P+9) [CLOSE- OIL
$100.88 (new record) / GOLD $948.90/ SILVER $18.72/ PLATINUM $2,155.90/DOLLAR
AT NEW RECORD LOW AGAINST EURO $149.98] FORECLOSURES/BANK REPO’S UP 90% YEAR
OVER YEAR, REGULATORS PREDICT OVER 100 BANK FAILURES, FORECLOSURES UP 57% IN
JANUARY, WHOLESALE INFLATION UP MUCH HIGHER THAN EXPECTED 7.5% (CORE RATE 4+%),
9% DROP IN HOME VALUES/PRICES, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOWN TO 17 YEAR LOW,
ELECTION YEAR/PROTECT INCOMPETENT INCUMBENT GOV’T PRINTING WORTHLESS DOLLARS
LIKE MAD WITH EXCESS LIQUIDITY CHASING TOO FEW GOODS (IE., FOOD UP 6%, ETC.)
WHICH IS HYPER-INFLATIONARY, ECONOMIST/ANALIST DR. KELLNER SAYS EASIER
MONEY/FISCAL PACKAGE WON’T REFLATE HOUSING MARKET (RECESSION), ANOTHER ANALYST
SAYS IN BEAR MARKET/RECESSION RECOMMENDS DEFENSIVE/PREFERRED STOCKS/BONDS/CASH,
DR. SHILLER- CASE-SHILLER INDEX- HOME VALUES CONTINUED DECLINE AND IN OR ABOUT
TO ENTER RECESSION (that’s already here), Stiglitz
Blames Greenspan For Recession, IBM ON $15 BILLION BUYBACK AND
JAWBONING AND SIGNIFICANT OVERSEAS SALES (AND POSITIVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO
THE WORTHLESS DOLLAR) RALLIES MARKET (WHAT BULL S**T), SHARPLY LOWER AND MORE WORTHLESS DOLLAR/HIGH
OIL PRICE RALLY CREATES YET ANOTHER B.S. SWING OF OVER 200 POINTS TO THE
UPSIDE, FOOD PRICES UP 6% ON ETHANOL CROWD-OUT, HOME SALES DOWN 5.5% / MEDIAN SALES PRICE DOWN 4.6%, ONE R.E.
EXPERT SAYS WITH SALES FALLING AND FORECLOSURES RISING WORSE YET TO COME,
LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS FELL FOR FOURTH MONTH IN A ROW (-.1%), PHILADELPHIA
FED MANUFACTURING INDEX UNEXPECTEDLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER (The Philadelphia
Manufacturing Index fell to a -24, indicating a sharp contraction in the
region's manufacturing activity. Economists had anticipated a reading of -10, a
less pronounced contraction. Last month the reading came in at -20.9.), ONE
ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS SIGNIFICANT INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT-STAGFLATION-AHEAD
ALONG WITH CONTINUED DEFLATION OF HOUSING BUBBLE WITH NATIONWIDE AVERAGE PRICE
DECLINE OF 8-10% AND ANOTHER DECLINE OF 15-20% TO COME, LUNATICS’/SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET RALLY/FRAUD
IN THE INDUCEMENT TO KEEP THE SUCKERS
SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING. REALITY: THIS IS A BEAR
MARKET IN A SECULAR BEAR MARKET IN A RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A SECULAR (AND QUITE
PERMANENT-THEY’VE MADE ALL THE WRONG CHOICES) ECONOMIC DOWNTREND IN THE U.S. ONE
ANALYST/REPORTER/ JOURNALIST FROM INSIDE SOURCES PEGS THE SUB-PRIME DOLLAR
VALUE OF THE SHILLED WORTHLESS PAPER AT $516 TRILLION (EVEN A PERCENTAGE OF
SAME RENDERS THE PROBLEM UNFIXABLE-HENCE, CULPABLE PARTIES MUST BE HELD
ACCOUNTABLE AND DISGORGE THEIR ILL-GOTTEN GAINS FROM, IE., COMMISSIONING
WORTHLESS PAPER, TAKING A POINT HERE OR THERE AND FRAUDULENTLY PASSING SAME ON,
AD INFINITUM, ETC.). Time to put the wall street among other corporate frauds
in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their ill-gotten
gains. [Please
note: I seldom name analysts bearing not so glad tidings for fear they’ll be
crucified by the frauds on wall street]. (2-25-08) (DOW +189, NASDAQ +24, S&P+16)
[CLOSE- OIL $99.23 / GOLD $940.50 / SILVER $18.09 / PLATINUM $2,153] GOOD
MONEY AFTER BAD BAILOUT/ REAFFIRMANCE OF TRIPLE RATING ON MBIA/AMBAC BOND
INSURERS (REMEMBER THOSE TRIPLE A RATE SECURITIZED SUB PRIME MORTGAGES…..MORE
BULL S**T) ALONG WITH WORTHLESS DOLLAR/HIGH OIL PRICE RALLY CREATES YET ANOTHER
B.S. SWING OF OVER 300 POINTS TO THE UPSIDE, HOME SALES DOWN 5.5% / MEDIAN
SALES PRICE DOWN 4.6%, ONE R.E. EXPERT SAYS WITH SALES FALLING AND FORECLOSURES
RISING WORSE YET TO COME, LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS FELL FOR FOURTH MONTH IN
A ROW (-.1%), PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX UNEXPECTEDLY AND
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER (The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index fell to a -24,
indicating a sharp contraction in the region's manufacturing activity.
Economists had anticipated a reading of -10, a less pronounced contraction.
Last month the reading came in at -20.9.), ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS
SIGNIFICANT INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT-STAGFLATION-AHEAD ALONG WITH CONTINUED
DEFLATION OF HOUSING BUBBLE WITH NATIONWIDE AVERAGE PRICE DECLINE OF 8-10% AND
ANOTHER DECLINE OF 15-20% TO COME, lunatics’/suckers’
bear market rally TO KEEP THE SUCKERS SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION
TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING. REALITY:
THIS IS A BEAR MARKET IN A SECULAR BEAR MARKET IN A RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A
SECULAR (AND QUITE PERMANENT-THEY’VE MADE ALL THE WRONG CHOICES) ECONOMIC
DOWNTREND IN THE U.S. ONE ANALYST/REPORTER/
JOURNALIST FROM INSIDE SOURCES PEGS THE SUB-PRIME DOLLAR VALUE OF THE SHILLED
WORTHLESS PAPER AT $516 TRILLION (EVEN A PERCENTAGE OF SAME RENDERS THE PROBLEM
UNFIXABLE-HENCE, CULPABLE PARTIES MUST BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE AND DISGORGE THEIR
ILL-GOTTEN GAINS FROM, IE., COMMISSIONING WORTHLESS PAPER, TAKING A POINT HERE
OR THERE AND FRAUDULENTLY PASSING SAME ON, AD INFINITUM, ETC.). Time to put the
wall street among other corporate frauds in jail and require fines, penalties
and disgorgement of their ill-gotten gains. [Please note: I seldom
name analysts bearing not so glad tidings for fear they’ll be crucified by the
frauds on wall street]. (2-22-08) (DOW +96, NASDAQ +3, S&P+10) NOT
SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION HAVE MORE PEOPLE IN U.S. OWED MORE ON THEIR HOMES
THAN THEY ARE WORTH (10% OR 9 MILLION WHOSE HOMES WORTH LESS THAN MORTGAGE
DEBT), MORTGAGE INSURERS AMBIAC, MBIA, AND FREDDIE MAC AND FANNY MAE
DOWNGRADED, NEWS OF (ACCORDING TO ONE ANALYST) GOOD MONEY AFTER BAD BAILOUT
CREATES B.S. SWING OF OVER 200 POINTS TO THE UPSIDE WHILE BOFA (BANKS) SEEKING
BAILOUT (EVEN AS COUNTRYWIDE CULPRITS SET TO PARTY IN LAVISH STYLE IN PALATIAL
SETTING), HOW ABOUT ACCOUNTABILITY AND SOURCE OF BAILOUT FROM FUNDS OF THOSE
WHO FINANCIALLY BENEFITTED FROM THE FRAUD ALONG WITH PROSECUTION OF AND
DISGORGEMENT FROM THE COMMISSIONEES/WALL STREET FRAUDS/EXECUTIVES, ETC., ONE
R.E. ANALYST REPORTS FALL OF MEDIAN HOME SALES PRICE IN BUBBLE BANANA REPUBLIC
CALIFORNIA OF OVER $100,000, DOLLAR DOWN, NOTHING HAS FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGED; (2-21-08)
(DOW -143, NASDAQ -27,
S&P-18) LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS FALL FOR FOURTH MONTH IN A ROW
(-.1%), PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX UNEXPECTEDLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER (The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index fell to a -24, indicating a sharp
contraction in the region's manufacturing activity. Economists had anticipated
a reading of -10, a less pronounced contraction. Last month the reading came in
at -20.9.), ONE ECONOMIST/ANALYST SAYS SIGNIFICANT INFLATION AND
UNEMPLOYMENT-STAGFLATION-AHEAD ALONG WITH CONTINUED DEFLATION OF HOUSING BUBBLE
WITH NATIONWIDE AVERAGE PRICE DECLINE OF 8-10% AND ANOTHER DECLINE OF 15-20% YET
TO COME, COMMODITIES/METALS UP; LUNAR ECLIPSE FULL MOON EFFECT (2-20-08)
SPARKS lunatics’/suckers’ bear market RALLY (200 POINT SWING TO UPSIDE) ON
WORSE THAN EXPECTED NEWS, INFLATION (PROBABLY HIGHER THAN REPORTED) EXCEEDS
EXPECTATIONS WITH CORE RATE UP 3% AND HEADLINE RATE UP 4.3%, KKR FOR SECOND
TIME DELAYS REPAYMENT OF COMMERCIAL PAPER, FAKE REPORT ON NEW CONSTRUCTION
(UNSELLABLE CONDOS/CONVERSIONS) UP .8% BUT BUILDING APPLICATIONS/PERMITS DOWN
HEFTY 3% (WORSE SINCE 1991), FED MINUTES SAY ECONOMY WILL DECLINE/SLOW FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED WITH HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION HENCE
STAGFLATION AS WELL AS HOUSING WEAKNESS TO CONTINUE, ZOGBY POLL-MORE THAN HALF
OF AMERICANS SAY RECESSION THIS YEAR BECAUSE WE’RE ALREADY IN RECESSION DESPITE
ELECTION YEAR INCUMBENT SPIN, NEW RECORD HIGH OIL PRICES AND DOLLAR WEAKNESS,
THINGS SO BAD THAT MORE CONTRAINDICATED RATE CUTS (HYPERINFLATIONARY IN LIGHT
OF MORE WORTHLESS DOLLARS) ARE EXPECTED, ONE REAL ESTATE ANALYST SAYS OFFICE
AND RETAIL NOW BEING HIT INDICATIVE OF MUCH MORE PAIN TO COME, HEWLETT PACKARD
WITH SIGNIFICANT OVERSEAS SALES (AND POSITIVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO THE
WORTHLESS DOLLAR) RALLIES NASDAQ, THIS MARKET IS FRAUD IN THE FACTUM AND
INDUCEMENT; WALMART RALLIES COMMISSIONS PRODUCING UPSWING BY MATCHING EXPECTATIONS (WHAT- FOR
INCREASED TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA, SAYS DISCOUNTS SPURRED SALES TO RESCUE
DISMAL HOLIDAY SEASON, CROWDS OUT OTHER RETAILERS, OUTLOOK CAUTIOUS) WAS
BACKWARD LOOKING AGAIN TO FOURTH QUARTER FOLLOWED BY HIGH OIL PRICE RALLY
AS DOLLAR WAS DOWN SHARPLY
(HYPERINFLATIONARY - IT TAKES MORE WORTHLESS DOLLARS TO BUY ANYTHING AS PANICKY
FED LOOKS THE OTHER WAY), ONE ANALYST SAYS WE’VE NOT SEEN MARKET BOTTOM YET,
WHILE ANOTHER (OIL) ANALYST SAYS WE’VE NOT SEEN MARKET TOP (FOR OIL PRICES)
YET, CREDIT SWISSE TO WRITE DOWN $2.8 BILLION IN OVERVALUED ASSETS/SUSPENDS
TRADERS, Institutional
Money Continues to Flow Out of Stocks, Credit
Crisis Losses Will Put Black Monday in the Shade , ANALYSTS/FINANCIAL REPORTERS PUZZLED OVER CRAZY LACK OF
REACTION ON WALL STREET TO UNEXPECTEDLY NEGATIVE ECONOMIC DATA/NEWS (ON
2-15-08) WHICH SURPRISE IS WHAT ONE EXPECTS WHEN WITNESSING CRAZY BEHAVIOR
UNTIL THEY REALIZE THEY ARE IN THE PSYCHO WARD OF AN INSTITUTION WHICH IS WALL
STREET THE INSTITUTION FOR THE CRIMINALLY INSANE PROPELLED BY GREED/FRAUD, Citigroup
bars investor exits from hedge fund , Bleak
economic reports signal recession, CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX DOWN FAR BELOW
EXPECTATIONS (16 YEAR LOW) AND ALWAYS HAS INDICATED RECESSION, NEW YORK
MANUFACTURING INDEX DOWN SHARPLY AND 3 TIMES WORSE THAN EXPECTED, IMPORTED
GOODS PRICE INDEX UP MORE THAN EXPECTED 1.7%, ONE RESPECTED ANALYST SAYS
ALREADY IN RECESSION AND BEAR MARKETAND HOLD CASH AND DON’T TRY TO ‘CATCH THE
FALLING KNIFE’, ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS GLOBAL BEAR MARKET AND A LOT OF NEGATIVE
NEWS HASN’T YET HIT ECONOMY AND BANKS WEAK ON WRITEDOWNS AND BORROWING COSTS,
OIL ANALYST SEES $100 OIL, BEST BUY LOWERS 2008 GUIDANCE/OUTLOOK, SOBERING
VIEW OF DETERIORATING ECONOMY FROM BERNANKE (WHO INHERITED SAME FROM B.S.
ARTIST/INCOMPETENT GREENSPAN – REMEMBER THE ENVY OF ALL THE WORLD
SPEECHES…..RIIIIIGHT…..IF MEASURED IN DEFICITS, WORTHLESSNESS OF CURRENCY,
ETC.) AS ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR THE ECONOMY HAVE DETERIORATED BEYOND
EXPECTATION AND THAT CONSUMER SPENDING WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED TO THE
DOWNSIDE, UBS WITH MORE WRITEDOWNS($13BILLION)/LOSSES/NEGATIVE GUIDANCE, FGIC
BOND INSURER DOWNGRADE BY MOODY’S, HOME PRICES FELL A QUARTERLY RECORD 5.8%
(-17% IN BUBBLE BANANA REPUBLIC CALIFORNIA), ONE ANALYST SAYS BOTTOM FISHING IN
A MARKET AS THIS IS LIKE ‘TRYING TO CATCH A FALLING KNIFE’, FALSE REPORTS FROM
GOVERNMENT NO HELP, FIRST BASED ON MULTINATIONAL ‘DEFENSIVE’ STOCK WITH SIGNIFICANT OVERSEAS SALES (AND
POSITIVE CURRENCY TRANSLATION TO THE WORTHLESS DOLLAR) COCA COLA RALLIES
STOCKS, THEN SCANDAL-SCARRED, CORRUPT COMMERCE DEPARTMENT OF THE LIE-PRONE U.S.
GOVERNMENT (THEY LIE ABOUT ALMOST EVERYTHING) WHICH LIES HAVE LED TO WAR
CRIMES, NATIONAL DECLINE, SUB-PRIME MELTDOWN, HUGE FRAUDS, ETC., AS STOCKS
RALLY FURTHER WITH FALSE GOV’T REPORT OF JANUARY RETAIL SALES 200% (UP A WEAK
.3% INSTEAD OF DOWN .3% - ALL ACTUAL REPORTS IN JANUARY WERE DOWN - THE AUTO COMPANIES/DEALERS KNOW HOW MANY
CARS AND OTHER RETALILERS HOW MANY GOODS THEY’VE SOLD) BETTER THAN EXPECTED BY
ECONOMISTS, ETC., NEXT WAVE OF IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE/FURTHER/FRAUD CAME WITH
BUSH SIGNING THE ECONOMICALLY
INNEFECTIVE ELECTION-YEAR STIMULOUS PLAN WHICH HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED
IRRATIONALLY TO THE UPSIDE MANY TIMES ALREADY, ONE ANALYST SAYS RETAIL SALES
NUMBER BY COMMERCE DEPARTMENT NOT TO BE BELIEVED AND FINANCIALS WILL REMAIN A
MINEFIELD WITH MORE DOWNGRADES AND DOLLAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER PRESSURE
WITH INFLATIONARY EFFECT AND NEW WALL STREET STRATEGY SEEMS TO BE BUY INTO THE
BAD NEWS (RIIIIIGHT!)AND THE LOW VOLUME RALLY SUSPECT (SINCE BASED UPON NOTHING
WHATSOEVER), ANOTHER R.E. ANALYST SAYS REAL ESTATE WEAKNESS WILL CONTINUE, OVER
200 POINT SWING TO THE POSITIVE (ON 2-11-08) ALONG WITH SUCKERS’ BEAR MARKET/SHORT COVERING RALLIES
BASED ON NOTHING BUT BULL S**T ALONE, REINSURANCE BY BERKSHIRE BUFFET TOO
EXPENSIVE (AND LIMITED TO MUNICIPALS) TO HELP AND REJECTED BY SOME BOND
INSURERS IS STILL B.S. TALKING POINT FOR THE FRAUDS ON WALL STREET AS IS THE 30
DAY EXTENSION FOR DEFAULTS/FORECLOSURES SINCE 95% DON’T QUALIFY FOR WORKOUT AND
FOR WHICH PROPERTIES HAVE NO EQUITY WHATSOEVER, ONE ANALYST SAYS GM WHICH
REPORTED RECORD $38.7 BILLION 2007 LOSS ALONG WITH FORD HAVE NO BOOK VALUE
AFTER REMOVING GOOD WILL (THEY’RE BROKE!), ONE BANK REPORTS FIRST LOSS EVER AND
CUTS DIVIDEND RALLYING THE STOCK (RIIIIIGHT), PREVIOUS HIGH OIL PRICES RALLY
STOCKS (RIIIIIGHT), AIG DOWN 11% ON DOWNGRADE/HIGHER THAN EXPECTED LOSSES IN
ASSETS/SUBPRIME DERIVATIVES, ONE ANALYST/TRADER SAYS SELL INTO RALLIES WHILE
ANOTHER SAYS STIMULUS PLAN JUST ELECTION YEAR SHOW AND WON’T DO ANYTHING BUT
INCREASE BUDGET DEFICIT AND AT BEST INCREASE TRADE DEFICIT (PLASMA TV’S, ETC.),
BOND INSURER SECURITY CAPITAL DOWNGRADED, ONE ANALYST QUOTES JOHN TEMPLETON
(WHO HAPPENS TO HAVE SAID THE MARKET IS GOING TO CRASH) AND SAYS IN EFFECT THAT
VOLATILE MARKETS AHEAD, EMERGING/GLOBAL MARKETS/COMMODITY EXPORTERS WILL FARE
BEST, ECONOMIST SAYS STIMULUS PACKAGE WILL NOT WORK SINCE TOO SMALL AND SOME
WILL NOT SPEND NOR WILL RATE CUTS WORK AS INFLATION NOT CONTROLLED AND
CONSUMER/CORPORATE CONFIDENCE DOWN, DOLLAR DOWN, OIL UP TO CLOSE AT $93.27,
ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS INCREASE IN WHOLESALE INVENTORIES AND INCREASED MORTGAGE
AND CREDIT CARD DEFAULTS WILL SURPRISE
TO THE DOWNSIDE AND OTHER THAN AN OCCASIONAL SHORT–COVERING RALLY NOT MUCH
UPSIDE MOMENTUM EVEN WITH (HYPERINFLATIONARY) PUMP-PRIMING BY FED, DOLLAR
DOWN, RETAIL SALES WEAKEST IN 40 YEARS,
GLOOMY OUTLOOKS FROM BOTH CISCO AND WALMART (JANUARY SALES AT .5% UP FAR LESS
THAN EXPECTATIONS) RALLIES BOTH STOCKS, ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS ALREADY IN
RECESSION, R.E. EXPERT/ANALYST SAYS ANOTHER 15% DECLINE IN HOME PRICES FOR 2008
WHILE ANOTHER ANALYST SAYS DECLINING REAL ESTATE PRICES INTO 2009, ON TODAYS UP
MARKET ANALYST SAYS THEY’RE TRYING TO MAKE A SILK PURSE FROM A SOW’S EAR IN
LIGHT OF BAD ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL NUMBERS, UNEMPLOYMENT ROLLS HIGHEST SINCE
JUST AFTER KATRINA, ECONOMIST SAYS STIMULUS PLAN WILL NOT WORK SINCE SAME DOES
NOT ADDRESS THE UNDERLYING PROBLEMS ALTHOUGH BULL S**T TALKING POINT SPIKES
STOCK PRICES ON NEWS OF SENATE RESOLUTION, DOWNGRADES ON GM AND FORD CITING ACCELERATING WEAKNESS OF
CONSUMERS/SPENDING, TOLL BROTHERS HOUSING CONTRACTS DOWN 46% AND CEO SAYS HE
SEES NO END TO THE TURMOIL IN SIGHT, TIME WARNER NET DOWN 41% AND DISNEY NET
DOWN 26% BUT BETTER THAN EXPECTED…..RIIIIIGHT…..STILL BACKWARD LOOKING AT
FOURTH QUARTER WHEN SAME HAS BEEN OPTIMALLY DISCOUNTED ALREADY, TWO FED BANK
PRESIDENTS SAY THEY MUST REMAIN VIGILANT AGAINST(HYPER)INFLATION (THEY KNOW
FED’S BEEN PRINTING DOLLARS LIKE MAD), MACY’S TO CUT JOBS ON POOR
RESULTS/OUTLOOK, AFTER THE BELL-LESS THAN ROSY OUTLOOK BY CISCO, fake
(GOVERNMENT) report on productivity down to low 1.8% from 6% previously but
still better than expected, ONE ANALYST SAYS GLOBAL SELLING OF DOLLAR
DENOMINATED ASSETS/StOCKS, ANOTHER SAYS BEAR MARKET AND ALL SECTORS/GROUPS
DOWN, THE ism (non-government report) service sector (now 2/3 of u.s. economy)
index drops in january, 2008 far below expectations to 41.9 (less than 50% indicates
contraction), more downgrades of consumer finance companies and banks, ken
shreve of investors business daily says significant institutional selling and
stock prices have not seen bottom yet, jeff lacker of richmond fed now uttering
the ‘r’ word (recession), $3 Trillion budget with $400+ billion budget deficit,
oil inventories up on fake (GOVERNMENT) report, factory orders up 2.3% on fake
(GOVERNMENT) report and 2007 worse year since 2003, 200 lenders went out of
business in 2007, another rate cut already discounted but rates up, MONOPOLY
COMPANY (WITH MONEY TO BURN AND WITH SIGNIFICANT OVERSEAS EARNINGS) MICROSOFT’S
RICH TAKEOVER BID FOR YAHOO (IF THEY DO FOR YAHOO MAIL WHAT THEY DO FOR THEIR
OWN HOTMAIL, DISASTER IN THE MAKING AND DON’T FORGET THE EXPERTS WHO
UNIVERSALLY PAN THEIR MONEY-MAKING VISTA) SPURred IRRATIONALLY EXUBERANT STOCK
PRICE RALLY DESPITE UNEXPECTEDLY LARGE LOSS OF 17,000 JOBS (A GAIN OF 70-80
THOUSAND WAS EXPECTED-LOSSES IN MANUFACTURING, CONSTRUCTION, FINANCE, AND EVEN
BROKE GOVERNMENT SECTOR), CONSTRUCTION SPENDING DOWN, MORE BANK AND BOND
COMPANY LOSSES ACKNOWLEDGED TO COME, MORE BACKWARD-LOOKING (TO fourth quarter)
earnings b.s. talking points; ECONOMIST DR. IRVING KELLNER WHO SAYS WE’RE ALREADY IN RECESSION FURTHER
POINTS OUT THAT STIMULUS PLAN AND RATE CUTS WON’T WORK SINCE THEY DON’T ADDRESS
THE PROBLEM WHICH INCLUDES VALUATION OF MORTGAGE BACKED SECURITIES AND
CONSEQUENT LOSSES TO BOND INSURERS, BANKS, ETC., AND PREDICTS FURTHER PRICE
EROSION (-15-20%) IN REAL ESTATE PRICES
COUNTRYWIDE; stimulus plan
washington incompetents and dumbya bush (protect those incumbents with more
bull s**t/spin/fraud) pledging more money they don’t have (print more/borrow
more – hyperinflationary and stagflation - the fact is that they couldn’t borrow/print
enough to remedy ie., the subprime fraud, etc.), one analyst recently explained
that even as the DOW recently had hit new highs in u.s. as measured in real
money, ie., gold, foreign currencies, etc., the DOW has actually fallen 70%,
all of which foreign currencies are stronger against the weak dollar which will
continue to decline which creates hyperinflation and exodus from same by global
investors except those who are picking up prime u.s. financial assets on the
cheap owing to u.s. desperation and greed (pay packages, compensation, etc.),
P/E ratio analysis/comparison no longer apposite in light of declining
dollar/fake reports/inflation which should be reflected in same (but is not),
DOLLAR WAS DOWN SHARPLY ON NEWS OF CUT (HYPERINFLATIONARY - IT TAKES MORE
WORTHLESS DOLLARS TO BUY ANYTHING, AS PANICKY FED LOOKS THE OTHER WAY), AS GOLD
PREVIOUSLY HIT NEW INTRA-DAY RECORD HIGH AT $954.40 [CLOSED THIS DAY AT
$947.88/SILVER $18.04/PLATINUM $2,167] AS DID PLATINUM ALONG WITH OTHER
METALS/COMMODITIES AND OIL HIT OVER $100 (CLOSED AT $98.81 THIS DAY), AN
ANALYST SAYS WE’RE IN AN EARNINGS RECESSION AND HE IS ON THE BEAR SIDE OF THE
LEGER, GOVERNMENT REPORTS LESS THAN EXPECTED GDP GROWTH IN FOURTH QUARTER AT
.6% WHICH PROBABLY MEANS NEGATIVE SINCE THE GOVERNMENT LIES ABOUT ALMOST
EVERYTHING, CASE/Shiller
index-home prices fell 97% in fourth quarter, new home sales down a record 26% in 2007 (-4.7% in
December, 2007), another analyst says we’re in recession while another says
inflation is a significant problem moving forward (stagflation), dollar down,
incumbents (just in time for the election) hoping to divert attention from
their failed policies domestically, geopolitically, economically and otherwise
as spending money they don’t have (they’re printing same and borrowing like
crazy) will increase deficits and along with lower interest rates lower the
value of the already worthless/internationally scorned dollar and dollar
denominated assets including stocks (which rallied today despite the bad news)
while as expected, hyperinflationary effects on oil, gold, commodity, etc.,
prices already immediately evident in today’s trading. ADP, a jersey based company not unfamiliar to the fraud/crime of placing
fake/non-existent employees on payrolls to facilitate (illegal/drug) money
laundering plays ball (I’m sure for a price/favor) with the frauds on wall
street with a figure SUBSTANTIALLY EXCEEDING EXPECTATIONS of PRIVATE SECTOR JOB
GAINS (130,000). MERRILL LYNCH DOWNGRADED. UBS
ANOTHER $14 BILLION IN WRITE-DOWNS ALONG WITH ANOTHER $8 BILLION FROM SOCIETE
GENERALE. BOND INSURERS DOWNGRADES (WHICH WILL COST BANKS ANOTHER $40 BILLION)
AND SEE ANOTHER $11 BILLION IN LOSSES. The MANTRA is the
so-called stimulus plan, the logistics and length of time involved in Katrina-like
execution guarantee only to forestall recognition of and accountability for
ineptitude/corruption that leaves america, unlike during the great depression
when america was neither globally hated nor broke as today, with a
Weimar-Republic-like currency and continued failed leadership/policies and
obfuscation of existing unsolved problems through blatant falsehoods, false
data/reports,corruption, etc.. Housing prices for the first time since the
great depression have fallen significantly and nationally. ALL PROBLEMS REMAIN.
NOTHING HAS BEEN SOLVED. NOTHING HAS CHANGED except to give bull s**t/spin
talking points to those responsible for u.s. decline. (ECONOMIST DR. IRVING
KELLNER, MERRIL LYNCH ECONOMIST, AMONG OTHERS…..ALREADY IN RECESSION), greater
than expected downturn in housing starts at
–14%, mortgage insurer credit downgrades, manufacturing down,
merrill lynch posts record $10 billion loss, bankruptcies up 40%, industrial
production flat, inflation up and much higher than reported ECONOMIC INDICATORS
DOWN THIRD MONTH IN A ROW, DEFAULTS UP, Housing
down, inflation up, consumer confidence near lows, TRADE DEFICIT NEAR RECORD AND ABOVE EXPECTATIONS,
RETAIL SALES DOWN AND FAR BELOW EXPECTATIONS, ALREADY IN RECESSION DESPITE
JAWBONING (BULL S**T) TO THE CONTRARY, 4th quarter earnings discounted long
ago, fake economic reports/data, more bull s**t/spin, dollar to fall even
further with fed panic and inflation to rise-hyperinflation/stagflation, lunatics’/suckers’ bear market rally TO KEEP THE SUCKERS
SUCKERED AND THE COMPUTERIZED COMMISSION TRADE DOLLARS FLOWING (DOW +96, NASDAQ +3, S&P+10). REALITY: THIS IS A BEAR MARKET IN A SECULAR BEAR
MARKET IN A RECESSIVE ECONOMY IN A SECULAR (AND QUITE PERMANENT-THEY’VE MADE
ALL THE WRONG CHOICES) ECONOMIC DOWNTREND IN THE U.S. ONE
ANALYST/REPORTER/ JOURNALIST FROM INSIDE SOURCES PEGS THE SUB-PRIME DOLLAR
VALUE OF THE SHILLED WORTHLESS PAPER AT $516 TRILLION (EVEN A PERCENTAGE OF
SAME RENDERS THE PROBLEM UNFIXABLE-HENCE, CULPABLE PARTIES MUST BE HELD
ACCOUNTABLE AND DISGORGE THEIR ILL-GOTTEN GAINS FROM, IE., COMMISSIONING
WORTHLESS PAPER, TAKING A POINT HERE OR THERE AND FRAUDULENTLY PASSING SAME ON,
AD INFINITUM, ETC.). Time to put the wall street among other corporate frauds
in jail and require fines, penalties and disgorgement of their ill-gotten
gains. [Please note: I seldom
name analysts bearing not so glad tidings for fear they’ll be crucified by the
frauds on wall street]. |
Current Topics 2006
Financial Lunacy 2006